DETERMINAN TINGKAT HUTANG SERTA HUBUNGAN TINGKAT HUTANG TERHADAP NILAI PERUSAHAAN: PERSPEKTIF PECKING ORDER THEORY

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A m ity a , A tm in i, D e te r m in a n T in g k a t H u ta n g s e r ta H u b u n g a n T in g k a t. 2 2 7

J u m a l A k u n ta n s i d a n K e u a n g a n I n d o n e s ia V o lu m e 5 - N o m o r 2 , D e s e m b e r 2 0 0 8

D E T E R M I N A N T I N G K A T H U T A N G

S E R T A H U B U N G A N T I N G K A T H U T A N G T E R H A D A P N I L A I

P E R U S A H A A N : P E R S P E K T I F PECKING ORDER THEORY

M ir n a A m i r y a

F a k u lta s E k o n o m i U niversita s B ra w ija y a

S a r i A t m in i

F a k u lta s E k o n o m i U niversita s B ra w ija y a

m im a .a m ir y a @ g m a il.c o m

A b s t r a c t

B a s e d on P e c k in g O rd er Theory, th e o b jective o f this s tu d y is to e xa m in e th e e ffe c t

o f d iv id e n d p o licy, p rofita bility, sa les grow th, a n d to ta l assets g ro w th tow ards

fin a n c ia l le ve ra g e a n d the e ffe c t o f fin a n c ia l leve ra g e as a n in te rv e n in g va ria b le

to w a rd s fir m value. The s a m p lin g m e th o d is p u r p o s iv e s a m p lin g m e th o d a n d there

are 33 fir m s th a t f u l f i l the criteria. D a ta are a n a ly ze d u sin g p a th a n a lysis m ethod.

T he resu lts s h o w th a t d iv id e n d p o lic y a n d p r o fita b ility h a v e n e g a tiv e in fluen ce on

fin a n c ia l leverage, w h ile to ta l a ssets g ro w th has p o s itiv e in flu ence on fin a n c ia l

levera g e. F in a n c ia l le v e ra g e h a s n e g a tiv e rela tio n on fir m value.

Keywords: financial leverage, firm value, and pecking order theory.

P E N D A H U L U A N

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2 2 8 J u r n a l A k u n t a n s i d a n K e u a n g a n I n d o n e s ia , D e s e m b e r 2 0 0 8 , Vol. 5, N o . 2, H a l. 2 2 7 - 2 4 4

S tr u k tu r m o d a l p e r u s a h a a n p u b lik d i I n d o n e s ia m a s ih d id o m in a s i d a ri h u ta n g d ib a n d in g m o d a l s e n d ir i ( S u d a r m a 2 0 0 4 ). B e s a r n y a h u ta n g y a n g d ig u n a k a n o le h p e r u s a h a a n u n tu k m e m b ia y a i k e g ia ta n n y a m e r u p a k a n s u a tu k e b ija k a n p e r u s a h a a n y a n g b e r h u b u n g a n d e n g a n s tr u k tu r m o d a l. K e b ija k a n te r s e b u t tid a k te rle p a s d a ri u p a y a p e r u s a h a a n u n tu k m e n in g k a tk a n n ila i p e ru s a h a a n m e la lu i p e n in g k a ta n k e m a k m u r a n p e m ilik d a n p a r a p e m e g a n g s a h a m y a n g te r c e r m in p a d a h a r g a s a h a m (B r ig h a m 1 9 9 5 , 13).

D a la m m e la k u k a n in v e s ta s i, in v e s to r a k a n m e lih a t k e m u n g k in a n m u n c u ln y a r is ik o d a la m s u a tu p e r u s a h a a n . S a la h s a tu r is ik o te r s e b u t a d a la h r is ik o k e u a n g a n a ta u fin a n c ia l risk, y a itu r is ik o y a n g tim b u l d a ri p e n g g u n a a n h u ta n g . U n tu k m e m p e r o le h p e rs e p s i p o s i t i f d a ri in v e s to r y a n g a k h ir n y a d a p a t m e n a ik k a n h a rg a s a h a m p e r u s a h a a n , p ih a k m a n a je m e n m e n g g u n a k a n tin g k a t h u ta n g p a d a tin g k a ta n y a n g m e m a k s im u m k a n n ila i p e r u s a h a a n . P e n g g u n a a n tin g k a t h u ta n g y a n g s e m a k in b e s a r d a la m s tr u k tu r m o d a l p e r u s a h a a n m e n y e b a b k a n b ia y a b u n g a s e m a k in b e s a r, s e h in g g a k e u n tu n g a n p e r le m b a r s a h a m y a n g m e n ja d i h a k p e m e g a n g s a h a m j u g a s e m a k in b e s a r k a r e n a a d a n y a p e n g h e m a ta n p e m b a y a r a n p a ja k p e n g h a s ila n b a d a n (R a o 1 9 9 5 , 4 7 5 ). T e ta p i p a d a tin g k a ta n te r te n tu , p e n g g u n a a n tin g k a t h u ta n g ju s tr u a k a n m e n u r u n k a n n ila i p e r u s a h a a n k a r e n a m e n in g k a tk a n r is ik o k e b a n g k r u ta n p e r u s a h a a n . P e m b a y a r a n a n g s u r a n d a n b u n g a h u ta n g d a p a t m e n y e b a b k a n fin a n c ia l distress k a r e n a a ru s k a s p e r u s a h a a n tid a k m a m p u m e n u tu p in y a .

K e p u tu s a n p e n d a n a a n m e r u p a k a n fo k u s d a la m m a n a je m e n k e u a n g a n y a n g m a s ih m e n ja d i p e r d e b a ta n h in g g a s a a t in i. B ila a s u m s i p a s a r p e r s a in g a n s e m p u r n a d ilo n g g a r k a n , ta m p a k b a h w a m a n a je m e n m e m ilik i in fo r m a s i te n ta n g p r o s p e k p e r u s a h a a n le b ih b a ik d a r ip a d a in v e sto r. P e lo n g g a r a n a s u m s i m e m u n c u lk a n b e b e r a p a te o ri s tr u k tu r m o d a l b e r b a s is a s im e tr i in fo r m a s i s e p e rti a g e n cy theory, p e c k in g o rd er theory, d a n s ig n a lin g h ypo thesis.

P e n e litia n in i d if o k u s k a n p a d a p e c k in g o rd er th e o ry d e n g a n a rg u m e n : ( 1 ) p e c k in g o rd er th e o ry d id a s a r k a n p a d a u ru ta n s u m b e r p e n d a n a a n d a ri la b a d ita h a n , h u ta n g , d a n p e n e r b ita n e k u ita s b a ru . F o k u s p e n e litia n in i a d a la h p a d a h u ta n g ; (2 ) p e c k in g o rd er th eo ry d itu ju k a n a g a r m a n a je r b e r tin d a k d is ip lin d a la m m e m a k s im u m k a n k e m a k m u r a n p e m ilik d a n p e m e g a n g s a h a m ( S h y a m - S u n d e r d a n M y e r s 1 9 9 9 ). P e c k in g o rd er th eo ry tid a k s e c a r a e k s p lis it m e m b a h a s r is ik o p r o s p e k p e r u s a h a a n , w a la u p u n u r u ta n p e n d a n a a n d id a s a r k a n p a d a r is ik o a ta u k e tid a k p a s tia n p r o s p e k p e r u s a h a a n p a d a m a s a y a n g a k a n d a ta n g (B rig h a m 1 9 9 5 ).

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A m ir y a , A tm in i, D e te r m in a n T in g k a t H u ta n g s e r ta H u b u n g a n T in g k a t. 2 2 9

k e b ij a k a n d iv id e n b e r p e n g a r u h p o s it i f te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g (B a s k in 1 9 8 9 ; A d e d e j i 1 9 9 8 ; M a h a d w a r th a d a n H a r to n o 2 0 0 2 ). S e la in itu d ite m u k a n b a h w a p r o f ita b ilita s b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t i f te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g ( C a rle to n d a n S ilb e r m a n 1 9 7 7 d a la m K a a r o 2 0 0 1 ; T itm a n d a n W e s s e ls 1 9 8 8 ; B a r to n d a n S u n d a r a m 1 9 8 9 ; B a s k in 1 9 8 9 ; C h a n g d a n R h e e 1 9 9 0 d a la m K a a r o 2 0 0 1 ; K a a ro 2 0 0 1 ; W a h id a h w a ti 2 0 0 2 ; Is m iy a n ti d a n H a n a fi 2 0 0 3 ; S u d a r m a 2 0 0 4 ) , p e r tu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a ti f te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g ( C a r le to n d a n S ilb e r m a n 1 9 7 7 d a la m K a a r o 2 0 0 1 ; B a r to n e t al. 1 9 8 9 ; K a a ro 2 0 0 1 ), d a n p e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a b e r p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g ( B a s k in 1 9 8 9 ; C h a n g d a n R h e e 1 9 9 0 d a la m K a a r o 2 0 0 1 ; K a a ro 2 0 0 1 ). P e n e litia n m e n g e n a i f a k to r y a n g m e m p e n g a r u h i n ila i p e r u s a h a a n d ila k u k a n S u d a r m a (2 0 0 4 ) y a n g m e n e m u k a n b u k ti b a h w a k e b ija k a n d iv id e n , p ro f ita b ilita s , d a n p e r tu m b u h a n p e r u s a h a a n b e r p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f te rh a d a p n ila i p e r u s a h a a n , s e d a n g k a n tin g k a t h u ta n g b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a ti f te r h a d a p n ila i p e r u s a h a a n .

P e n e litia n in i b e r tu ju a n u n tu k m e m p e r o le h b u k ti e m p ir is m e n g e n a i: (1 ) p e n g a r u h k e b ija k a n d iv id e n , p r o f ita b ilita s , p e r tu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n d a n p e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g p e r u s a h a a n ; (2 ) h u b u n g a n tin g k a t h u ta n g d e n g a n n ila i p e r u s a h a a n .

T E L A A H L I T E R A T U R D A N P E N G E M B A N G A N H I P O T E S I S

A s im e tri in f o r m a s i te r ja d i k e tik a a d a p e n g u a s a a n in fo r m a s i y a n g b e r b e d a . S e m a k in b e s a r a s im e tr i in f o r m a s i, b ia y a tra n s a k s i s e m a k in tin g g i d a n lik u id ita s s e m a k in re n d a h . A s im e tr i in f o r m a s i m e m b e r ik a n r is ik o k e p u tu s a n p e n d a n a a n . P e r u s a h a a n tid a k in g in m e m p e r o le h r is ik o b e s a r d a n m e n g in g in k a n a g a r m a n a je r b e r tin d a k d is ip lin d a la m m e m a k s im u m k a n k e m a k m u r a n p e m ilik .

A s im e tri in f o r m a s i m e m p e n g a r u h i k e p u tu s a n m a n a je r k e u a n g a n d a la m m e n g a tu r u r u t- u r u ta n k e m a m p u a n p e n d a n a a n in v e s ta s i, te r u ta m a p e r tim b a n g a n a s p e k k e s u lita n k e u a n g a n . U r u t- u r u ta n p e n d a n a a n in i, y a n g d ik e n a l d e n g a n p e c k in g o rd er theory, m e n g a r a h k a n p a d a s itu a s i te r d a p a tn y a s tr u k tu r p e r m o d a la n y a n g

o p tim a l b a g i p e r u s a h a a n . S e tia p tim b u l p e lu a n g in v e s ta s i, m a n a je r k e u a n g a n s e la lu b e r p ik ir k e a ra h p e n g a tu r a n s u m b e r p e m b ia y a a n y a n g p r o p o r s io n a l y a n g d a p a t m e m in im u m k a n b ia y a m o d a l. A d a e m p a t h a l y a n g d ik e m u k a k a n M y e r s (1 9 8 4 ) d a la m R iz k y a n i ( 2 0 0 6 ) b e r k e n a a n d e n g a n p e c k in g o rd er theory, y a itu : (1 ) p e r u s a h a a n le b ih m e n g u ta m a k a n s u m b e r d a n a in te rn a l; (2 ) p e r u s a h a a n m e n y e s u a ik a n ta r g e t

d iv id e n d p a y o u t ra tio te r h a d a p p e lu a n g in v e s ta s i n a m u n m e n g h in d a r i p e r u b a h a n

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2 3 0 J u r n a l A k u n ta n s i d a n K e u a n g a n I n d o n e s ia , D e s e m b e r 2 0 0 8 , Vol. 5, N o . 2, H a l. 2 2 7 - 2 4 4

in te rn a l le b ih k e c il d a ri k e b u tu h a n in v e s ta s i, p e r u s a h a a n m e n g g u n a k a n s a ld o k a s a ta u m e n ju a l p o rto f o lio s u r a t b e rh a rg a y a n g d im ilik i; (4 ) j i k a p e n d a n a a n e k s te rn a l d ip e r lu k a n , p e ru s a h a a n m e m ilih s u m b e r d a n a d a ri h u ta n g k a r e n a d ip a n d a n g le b ih a m a n d a ri e k u ita s . E k u ita s m e r u p a k a n p ilih a n te r a k h ir s u m b e r p e n d a n a a n .

D iv id e n , d a p a t b e r b e n tu k d iv id e n k a s a ta u p u n d iv id e n s a h a m , m e r u p a k a n la b a b e r s ih p e ru s a h a a n y a n g d id is tr ib u s ik a n k e p a d a p e m e g a n g s a h a m a ta s p e r s e tu ju a n R a p a t U m u m P e m e g a n g S a h a m ( D a rm a d ji d a n F a k h r u d d in 2 0 0 1 , 127). K e b ija k a n d iv id e n a d a la h re n c a n a tin d a k a n d a la m m e m b u a t k e p u tu s a n d iv id e n u n tu k d u a tu ju a n d a sa r, y a itu m a k s im a lis a s i k e k a y a a n p e m ilik d a n p e m b ia y a a n y a n g c u k u p . K e d u a tu ju a n te r s e b u t s a lin g b e r h u b u n g a n d a n h a r u s m e m e n u h i fa k to r h u k u m , p e rja n jia n , p e r tu m b u h a n , h u b u n g a n d e n g a n p e m ilik d a n h u b u n g a n d e n g a n p a s a r y a n g m e m b a ta s i a lte r n a t if k e b ija k a n ( S u n d ja ja d a n B a r lia n 2 0 0 3 , 3 9 0 ).

P e ru s a h a a n y a n g m e m b a g ik a n d iv id e n d a la m ju m la h b e s a r m e m e r lu k a n ta m b a h a n d a n a m e la lu i tin g k a t h u ta n g s e h in g g a k e b ija k a n d iv id e n m e m p e n g a r u h i tin g k a t h u ta n g s e c a ra s e a ra h ( E m e r y d a n F in n e r ty 1 9 9 7 d a la m Is m iy a n ti d a n H a n a fi 2 0 0 3 ). D iv id e n y a n g tin g g i m e r u p a k a n s in y a l m e n in g k a tn y a p r o f ita b ilita s p e r u s a h a a n d i m a s a d e p a n (M ille r d a il R o c k 1 9 8 5 d a la m M a h a d w a r th a d a n H a r to n o 2 0 0 2 ). M a n a je m e n m e m b e r ik a n s in y a l p o s i t i f m e la lu i p e m b a g ia n d iv id e n a g a r in v e s to r m e n g e ta h u i b a h w a te r d a p a t p e lu a n g in v e s ta s i di m a s a d e p a n y a n g m e n ja n jik a n b a g i n ila i p e ru s a h a a n . D iv id e n y a n g tin g g i j u g a b e ra rti p e r u s a h a a n a k a n ie b ih b a n y a k m e n g g u n a k a n tin g k a t h u ta n g u n tu k m e m b ia y a i in v e s ta s in y a , u n tu k m e n ja g a s tr u k tu r m o d a l o p tim a l (E m e r y d a n F in n e r ty 1 9 9 7 ; E a s te r b r o o k 1 9 8 4 d a la m Is m iy a n ti d a n H a n a fi 2 0 0 3 ). P e n e litia n B a s k in (1 9 8 9 ) , A d e d e ji (1 9 9 8 ) , d a n M a h a d w a r th a d a n H a r to n o (2 0 0 2 ) m e n e m u k a n b a h w a k e b ija k a n d iv id e n b e r p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g .

P e n e litia n y a n g d ila k u k a n o le h M y e r s (1 9 9 6 ) d a la m K a a r o (2 0 0 1 ) m e n e m u k a n b a h w a k e b ija k a n d iv id e n b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t i f te rh a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g . P e n g a ru h in i m e n g in d ik a s ik a n b a h w a d iv id e n d a p a t m e n s u b s titu s i fu n g s i h u ta n g d a la m m e n g u ra n g i r is ik o p e r u s a h a a n . P e n g g u n a a n d iv id e n d ila k u k a n u n tu k m e n g a ta s i m a s a la h k e le b ih a n a lira n k a s in te rn a l (free ca sh flo w ) p a d a p e ru s a h a a n y a n g p ro fita b le d a n lo w -g ro w th . D e n g a n d e m ik ia n , p e r u s a h a a n m a s ih m a m p u m e m b a y a r d iv id e n y a n g tin g g i d a n m e m b ia y a i k e s e m p a ta n in v e s ta s i y a n g a d a ta n p a h a r u s m e n c a r i ta m b a h a n d a n a e k s te r n a l d a ri h u ta n g . A lie n (1 9 9 3 ) d a la m A d e d e ji ( 1 9 9 8 ) d a n K a a ro ( 2 0 0 1 ) m e n e m u k a n b a h w a k e b ija k a n d iv id e n b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t i f te rh a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g . B e r d a s a r k a n u ra ia n h a s il p e n e litia n te rd a h u lu d a p a t d itu r u n k a n h ip o te s is s e b a g a i b e rik u t:

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A m ir y a , A tm in i, D e te r m in a n T in g k a t H u t a n g s e r ta H u b u n g a n T in g k a t. 2 3 J

P r o fita b ilita s m e n c e r m in k a n k e u n tu n g a n d a ri in v e s ta s i k e u a n g a n . M a n a je r k e u a n g a n y a n g m e n g g u n a k a n p e c k in g o rd e r th e o ry s e la lu m e m p e r b e s a r tin g k a t p r o f ita b ilita s u n tu k m e n in g k a tk a n la b a d ita h a n ( M y e rs 1 9 8 4 d a la m S u d a r m a 2 0 0 4 ). A r tin y a , p ro f ita b ilita s b e r h u b u n g a n n e g a t i f d e n g a n ra s io tin g k a t h u ta n g . P e n g a r u h n e g a t i f p ro f ita b ilita s te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g d ite m u k a n o le h C a r le to n d a n S ilb e r m a n ( 1 9 7 7 ) d a la m K a a r o (2 0 0 1 ) , T itm a n d a n W e s s e ls (1 9 8 8 ) , B a r to n d a n S u n d a r a m (1 9 8 9 ), B a s k in (1 9 8 9 ) , C h a n g d a n R h e e ( 1 9 9 0 ) d a la m K a a ro (2 0 0 1 ) , K a a r o (2 0 0 1 ), W a h id a h w a ti (2 0 0 2 ) , Is m iy a n ti d a n H a n a fi (2 0 0 3 ), s e r ta S u d a r m a (2 0 0 4 ) , y a n g m e n g in d ik a s ik a n b a h w a p a d a tin g k a t p ro f ita b ilita s re n d a h , p e r u s a h a a n m e n g g u n a k a n tin g k a t h u ta n g u n tu k m e m b ia y a i o p e r a s io n a ln y a d a n s e b a lik n y a . B e r d a s a r k a n u r a ia n h a s il p e n e litia n te rd a h u lu , d itu r u n k a n h ip o te s is :

H 2: P r o f i t a b ili t a s b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t i f t e r h a d a p t in g k a t h u t a n g .

P e r tu m b u h a n p e r u s a h a a n m e r u p a k a n k o m p le m e n p r o f ita b ilita s s e b a g a i p r o k s i p e c k in g o rd er th e o ry u n tu k m e n ila i p r o s p e k p e ru s a h a a n d i m a s a d a ta n g . D u a p e r tu m b u h a n u k u r a n p e r u s a h a a n y a n g te r k a it te ta p i m e m ilik i im p lik a s i y a n g b e r b e d a te rh a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g a d a la h p e r tu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n d a n p e rtu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a .

P e r tu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n m e n c e r m in k a n p ro s p e k p e r u s a h a a n d e n g a n h o ris o n le b ih p e n d e k d a r ip a d a p e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a . V a ria b e l p e r tu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n d ig u n a k a n o le h C a r le to n d a n S ilb e r m a n (1 9 7 7 ) d a la m K a a r o (2 0 0 1 ) , B a r to n e t al. (1 9 8 9 ) , d a n K a a r o ( 2 0 0 1 ) d id a s a r k a n p a d a a rg u m e n b a h w a p e r tu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n m e n c e r m in k a n tin g k a t p r o d u k tiv ita s te r p a s a n g y a n g s ia p b e r o p e r a s i s e r ta m e n c e r m in k a n k a p a s ita s s a a t in i y a n g d a p a t d is e r a p p a s a r d a n m e n c e r m in k a n d a y a s a in g p e r u s a h a a n d a la m p a sa r. P e n in g k a ta n p e n ju a la n m e n c e r m in k a n p e n in g k a ta n p e n e r im a a n . C a r le to n d a n S ilb e r m a n (1 9 7 7 ) d a la m K a a ro (2 0 0 1 ) , B a r to n e t al. (1 9 8 9 ) , d a n K a a ro ( 2 0 0 1 ) m e n e m u k a n b a h w a p e rtu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t i f te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g .

P e r tu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n d ip e r k ir a k a n b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t i f te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g . S e s u a i d e n g a n p e c k in g o rd e r th eo ry, p e r u s a h a a n d e n g a n p e rtu m b u h a n tin g g i c e n d e r u n g m e m ilik i p e n d a n a a n in te r n a l y a n g k u a t, s e h in g g a c e n d e r u n g m e n u r u n k a n tin g k a t h u ta n g . B e r d a s a r k a n u r a ia n h a s il p e n e litia n te r d a h u lu d a p a t d itu r u n k a n h ip o te s is :

H 3: P e r t u m b u h a n p e n j u a l a n b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t i f t e r h a d a p t in g k a t h u t a n g .

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p e r u s a h a a n a d a la h a n a lis is te rh a d a p p r o d u k tiv ita s d a s a r d a ri k e g ia ta n e k o n o m i (S u d a r m a 2 0 0 4 ). H o m a ifa r (1 9 9 4 ) d a la m S u d a r m a ( 2 0 0 4 ) m e n ila i p e r tu m b u h a n p e r u s a h a a n d a ri n ila i e k u ita s d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n in d ik a to r r a s io n ila i p a s a r e k u ita s d e n g a n n ila i b u k u e k u ita s. S e d a n g k a n T itm a n d a n W e s s e ls ( 1 9 8 8 ) d a n S u d a rm a (2 0 0 4 ) m e n ila i p e rtu m b u h a n p e r u s a h a a n d a ri to ta l a k tiv a .

P e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a p e r u s a h a a n j u g a m e n c e r m in k a n p r o s p e k p e r u s a h a a n , te ta p i m e m b a w a im p lik a s i y a n g b e r b e d a te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g . P e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a c e n d e r u n g b e r d a m p a k p o s it i f te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g p e r u s a h a a n . P e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a m e n c e r m in k a n h o ris o n w a k tu y a n g le b ih p a n ja n g d a ri p e rtu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n . I n v e s ta s i p a d a a k tiv a m e m b u tu h k a n w a k tu s e b e lu m siap d io p e ra s ik a n , s e h in g g a a k tiv ita s y a n g d ila k u k a n tid a k la n g s u n g te r k a it d e n g a n p e n e r im a a n . P e n in g k a ta n a k tiv a d ila k u k a n p e r u s a h a a n b ila te r d a p a t p r o s p e k b a g u s . K e b u tu h a n d a n a in te rn a l y a n g tid a k m e n c u k u p i a k a n m e n d o r o n g p e ru s a h a a n m e n g g u n a k a n h u ta n g , s e h in g g a p e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a c e n d e r u n g b e r d a m p a k p o s i t if te rh a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g p e r u s a h a a n . H a s il p e n e litia n B a s k in (1 9 8 9 ) , C h a n g d a n R h e e (1 9 9 0 ) d a la m K a a ro ( 2 0 0 1 ) m e n e m u k a n b u k ti b a h w a p e rtu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a b e rp e n g a ru h p o s i t if te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g p e r u s a h a a n . B e r d a s a r k a n u ra ia n h a s il p e n e litia n te r d a h u lu d itu r u n k a n h ip o te s is :

H 4: P e r t u m b u h a n t o t a l a k t iv a b e r p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p t i n g k a t h u t a n g .

P ecking order theory m e n g a ta k a n b a h w a p e ru s a h a a n le b ih c e n d e ru n g m e m ilih

p e n d a n a a n y a n g b e ra sa l d ari in te rn a l d a rip a d a e k ste rn a l p e ru sa h a a n . P e n g g u n a a n d a n a in te rn a l leb ih d id a h u lu k a n d ib a n d in g k a n d e n g a n p e n g g u n a a n d a n a y a n g b e rs u m b e r d a ri e k ste rn a l. U ru t-u ru ta n y a n g d ik e m u k a k a n o le h te o ri ini d a la m h a l p e n d a n a a n a d a la h p e rta m a , la b a d ita h a n d iik u ti d e n g a n p e n g g u n a a n h u ta n g , d a n te ra k h ir a d a la h p e n e rb ita n e k u ita s b aru . P e ru s a h a a n d e n g a n tin g k a t p ro fita b ilita s tin g g i a k a n m e n g h a s ilk a n d a n a in te rn al y a n g j u g a tin g g i. Jik a ra sio p e m b a y a ra n d iv id e n tid a k b e rh u b u n g a n d e n g an tin g k a t p ro fita b ilita s, m a k a se m a k in tin g g i tin g k a t p ro fita b ilita s, se m a k in re n d a h k e b u tu h a n d a n a e k ste rn a l, te rm a su k d ari h u ta n g . D i sisi lain , n ila i p e ru s a h a a n d ip e n g a ru h i se c a ra p o s itif o leh e k sp e k ta si te rh a d a p tin g k a t p ro fita b ilita s d i m a sa d a tan g . D e n g a n d e m ik ia n b e rd a sa rk a n p e ck in g order theory, tin g k a t h u ta n g b e rh u b u n g a n n e g a tif d e n g an n ila i p e ru sa h a a n . K o n s is te n d e n g a n p e r n y a ta a n te rs e b u t, S u d a r m a (2 0 0 4 ) m e n e liti h u b u n g a n p e n g g u n a a n tin g k a t h u ta n g d a la m s tr u k tu r m o d a l te r h a d a p n ila i p e ru s a h a a n d a n m e n e m u k a n b u k ti b a h w a tin g k a t h u ta n g b e r h u b u n g a n n e g a t i f te rh a d a p n ila i p e ru s a h a a n . B e r d a s a r k a n u ra ia n te r s e b u t d itu r u n k a n h ip o te s is b e rik u t:

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M E T O D E P E N E L I T I A N

P o p u l a s i d a n S a m p e l

P o p u la s i p e n e litia n in i a d a la h p e r u s a h a a n m a n u f a k tu r y a n g te r d a f ta r d i B E J m e n u r u t In d o n e sia n C a p ita l M a r k e t D ire c to ry 2005. S a m p e l p e n e litia n d ite n tu k a n d e n g a n p u r p o siv e sa m p lin g m eth o d . S a m p e l a d a la h p e r u s a h a a n y a n g m e m e n u h i k rite ria : (1 ) te la h te r d a f ta r d i B E J m in im a l s a tu ta h u n (p e r io d e p e n g a m a ta n p e n e litia n in i a d a la h ta h u n 2 0 0 3 - 2 0 0 4 ) ; (2 ) m e m p u b lik a s ik a n la p o r a n k e u a n g a n a u d ita n s e la m a p e r io d e p e n e litia n ; (3 ) la p o r a n k e u a n g a n n y a b e r a k h ir 31 D e s e m b e r; (4 ) m e m p u n y a i h u ta n g j a n g k a p a n ja n g ; (5 ) m e m b a g i d iv id e n ; (6 ) tid a k m e m ilik i e k u ita s n e g a tif; d a n (7 ) m e m ilik i d a ta y a n g le n g k a p . B e r d a s a r k a n k r ite r ia te r s e b u t d ip e r o le h 33 p e r u s a h a a n s e b a g a i s a m p e l p e n e litia n . P r o s e d u r p e n e n tu a n s a m p e l p e n e litia n d a p a t d ilih a t p a d a T a b e l 1.

T a b e l 1

P r o s e d u r P e n e n t u a n S a m p e l P e n e l i t i a n

K e t e r a n g a n J u m l a h

P o p u l a s i 1 5 3

T e r d a f t a r d i B E J k u r a n g d a r i s e t a h u n d a n d i- d e lis te d s e l a m a p e r i o d e p e n e l i t i a n ( 6 ) L a p o r a n k e u a n g a n t i d a k b e r a k h i r 3 1 D e s e m b e r _{( 1 )} T i d a k m e m p u n y a i h u t a n g j a n g k a p a n j a n g ( 5 ) T i d a k m e m b a g i k a n d i v i d e n ( 9 2 ) M e m i l i k i e k u i t a s n e g a t i f ( 1 6 )

J u m l a h s a m p e l ( p e r u s a h a a n ) 3 3

J u m l a h o b s e r v a s i ( s e l a m a 2 t a h u n p e r i o d e p e n e l i t i a n ) 6 6

D a t a P e n e l i t i a n

D a ta d a la m p e n e litia n in i a d a la h d a ta s e k u n d e r b e r u p a d iv id e n d p a y o u t, la b a o p e r a s i, p e n ju a la n b e rs ih , to ta l a k tiv a , h u ta n g j a n g k a p a n ja n g , to ta l e k u ita s , h a r g a p a s a r s a h a m , d a n n ila i b u k u p e r s a h a m y a n g d ip e r o le h d a ri I C M D 2 0 0 5 .

V a r i a b e l P e n e l i t i a n

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2 3 4 J u r n a l A k u n t a n s i d a n K e u a n g a n I n d o n e s ia , D e s e m b e r 2 0 0 8 , Vol. 5, N o . 2, H a l. 2 2 7 - 2 4 4

T a b e l 2

P e n g u k u r a n V a r i a b e l P e n e l i t i a n

I d e n t i f i k a s i V a r i a b e l

V a r i a b e l S i m b o l O p e r a s i o n a l i s a s i V a r i a b e l

D e p e n d e n T i n g k a t h u t a n g L E V R

h u t a n g j a n g k a p e n d e k + h u t a n g j a n g k a p a n j a n g / ( h u t a n g j a n g k a p e n d e k + h u t a n g j a n g k a p a n j a n g + m o d a l s e n d i r i )

N i l a i p e r u s a h a a n V A L h a r g a s a h a m / n i l a i b u k u p e r s a h a m

I n d e p e n d e n K e b i j a k a n d i v i d e n D I V d i v i d e n p e r l e m b a r s a h a m / l a b a p e r l e m b a r s a h a m

P r o f i t a b i l i t a s P R O F T l a b a o p e r a s i s e t e l a h p a j a k / m o d a l

P e r t u m b u h a n

p e n j u a l a n S A L E S

( t o t a l p e n j u a l a n ^ t) - ( t o t a l p e n j u a l a n ^ ( 1 ) / t o t a l p e n j u a l a n thn(_ ,

P e r t u m b u h a n t o t a l a k t iv a

A S S E T S ( t o t a l a k t i v a ^ t) - ( t o t a l a k t i v a ^ t l) / t o t a l a k t i v a . , .

t h n t - 1

M e t o d e A n a l i s i s

M e to d e a n a lis is y a n g d ig u n a k a n a d a la h p a th a n a lysis. B e r d a s a r k a n h u b u n g a n a n ta r v a r ia b e l s e p e rti y a n g te la h d iu ra ik a n p a d a b a g ia n p e n g e m b a n g a n h ip o te s is , d ib u a t m o d e l d a la m b e n tu k d ia g r a m p a th s e p e rti y a n g d is a jik a n d a la m G a m b a r 1. M o d e l te r s e b u t d a p a t d in y a ta k a n d a la m p e rs a m a a n :

L E V R t = a , + P ,D I V + P2P R O F T t + P3S A L E S + P4G R O W T H t + £, V A L „ = a , + P SL E V R , +

N o ta s i:

L E V R = T in g k a t H u ta n g P e ru s a h a a n V A L = N ila i P e ru s a h a a n

D IV = K e b ija k a n D iv id e n P R O F T = P r o fita b ilita s

S A L E S = P e r tu m b u h a n P e n ju a la n G R O W T H = P e r tu m b u h a n T o ta l A k tiv a

A ta u j i k a s u d a h d ib a k u k a n d a p a t d in y a ta k a n d a la m p e rs a m a a n :

7 = P 7 H- P 7 H- P 7 + P 7 /'H

L E V R 1 l ^ D l V * 2^ P R O F T 3 ^ S A L E S 4 G R O W T H V 1 /

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A m ir y a , A tm in i, D e te r m in a n T in g k a t H u t a n g s e r ta H u b u n g a n T in g k a t. 2 3 5

G a m b a r 1 m e n u n ju k k a n h u b u n g a n a n ta r v a ria b e l

G a m b a r 1

D i a g r a m

Path

K e t e r a n g a n :

P e n g a r u h l a n g s u n g D I V k e L E V R = P 1 ( H i p o t e s i s 1 ) P e n g a r u h l a n g s u n g P R O F T k e L E V R = P 2 ( H i p o t e s i s 2 ) P e n g a r u h l a n g s u n g S A L E S k e L E V R = P 3 ( H i p o t e s i s 3 ) P e n g a r u h l a n g s u n g G R O W T H k e L E V R = P 4 ( H i p o t e s i s 4 ) P e n g a r u h l a n g s u n g L E V R k e V A L = P 5 ( H i p o t e s i s 5 )

D ila k u k a n p u la u ji a s u m s i k la s ik te r h a d a p d a ta p e n e litia n . U ji a s u m s i k la s ik y a n g d ila k u k a n m e lip u ti u ji n o r m a lita s d a ta m e n g g u n a k a n K o lm o g o ro v -S m im o v G o o d n e ss o f F it Test, u ji m u ltik o lin e a r ita s d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n Value In fla tio n F a c to r, u ji a u to k o r e la s i m e n g g u n a k a n D u rb in -W a tso n d a n u ji h e te r o s k e d a s tis ita s

m e n g g u n a k a n P a r k test.

H A S I L A N A L I S I S

S t a t is t ik a D e s k r i p t if d a n U j i A s u m s i K la s ik

H a s il s ta tis tik a d e s k r ip tif v a r ia b e l p e n e litia n d is a jik a n d i T a b e l 3. H a s il u ji n o r m a lita s d a ta , a u to k o r e la s i, m u ltik o lin e a r ita s , d a n h e te r o s k e d a s tis ita s m e n u n ju k k a n b a h w a s e lu r u h v a ria b e l p e n e litia n tid a k a d a y a n g m e la n g g a r a s u m s i k la s ik .

A n a lis is J a lu r

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2 3 6 J u r n a l A k u n t a n s i d a n K e u a n g a n In d o n e s ia , D e s e m b e r 2 0 0 8 , Vol. 5, N o . 2, H a l. 2 2 7 - 2 4 4

T a b e l 3

S t a t i s t i k a D e s k r i p t i f V a r i a b e l P e n e l i t i a n

V a r i a b e l J u m l a h N i l a i

M i n i m u m

N i l a i

M a k s i m u m R a t a - R a t a

S t a n d a r

D e v i a s i

N ilai P eru sah aan 66 0,420 9,963 2,90 0 2,138

T in g k at h u tan g P erusahaan 66 0,007 0,552 0,20 4 0,149

K eb ijak an D ividen 66 0,070 0,999 0,288 0,173

P rofitab ilitas 66 0,030 0,227 0,123 0,042

P ertu m b u h an P enjualan 66 -0,146 0,787 0,169 0,179

P e rtu m b u h an Total A k tiva 66 -0,142 0,467 0,124 0,115

p e r u s a h a a n , d a n n ila i p e ru s a h a a n . T a b e l 4 m e n y a jik a n m a tr ik s k o r e la s i a n ta r a k e b ija k a n d iv id e n , p r o f ita b ilita s , p e r tu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n , p e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a , tin g k a t h u ta n g p e r u s a h a a n , d a n n ila i p e ru s a h a a n . S e s u a i d u g a a n , p ro f ita b ilita s b e r h u b u n g a n p o s i t if d e n g a n n ila i p e r u s a h a a n d a n b e r h u b u n g a n n e g a t i f d e n g a n tin g k a t h u ta n g . D e n g a n d e m ik ia n , a d a n y a k e d u a h u b u n g a n te r s e b u t a k a n b e r p e n g a r u h te rh a d a p h u b u n g a n a n ta r a tin g k a t h u ta n g d a n n ila i p e r u s a h a a n .

T a b e l 4

M a t r i k s K o e f i s i e n K o r e l a s i

K o e f i s i e n

K o r e l a s i V A L L E V R D I V P R O F T S A L E S G R O W T H

VA L 1,000

L E V R -0 ,4 29 *** 1,000

D IV 0,350 *** -0,331 *** 1,000

P R O F T 0,367 *** -0,450 *** 0,191 1,000

S A L E S 0,030 0,003 -0,133 0,005 1,000

G R O W T H -0,147 0,37 0 *** -0,203 -0,264 0,34 7 *** 1,000

K eterangan: * * * = koefisien korelasi signifikan p a d a a = 0,01

P e n d u g a a n k o e fis ie n j a l u r y a n g m e n u n ju k k a n p e n g a r u h k e b ija k a n d iv id e n , p ro f ita b ilita s , p e r tu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n , d a n p e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a te rh a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g d ila k u k a n m e n g g u n a k a n a n a lis is r e g re s i lin ie r b e rg a n d a . K o e fis ie n j a l u r d ip e r o le h d a ri h a s il k o e fis ie n r e g re s i y a n g d is ta n d a r k a n ( b e ta ) s e p e rti y a n g d is a jik a n d a la m T a b e l 5.

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H a s i l U j i H i p o t e s i s

A n a lis is ja lu r d ig u n a k a n u n tu k m e n g e s tim a s ik a n h u b u n g a n k a u s a l a n ta r a s e ju m la h v a ria b e l d a n h ira rk i k e d u d u k a n m a s in g - m a s in g v a ria b e l d a la m s e r a n g k a ia n j a l u r h u b u n g a n k a u s a l. P e n g a r u h a n ta r v a r ia b e l, s e k a lig u s u n tu k u ji h ip o te s is , d ilih a t d a ri h a s il p e r h itu n g a n m e to d e re g r e s i b e rg a n d a . K o e fis ie n j a l u r d ilih a t d a ri k o e fis ie n b e ta y a n g d is ta n d a rd is a s i.

Hasil Uji Hipotesis 1 - Hipotesis 4

P e n g a r u h k e b ija k a n d iv id e n , p ro f ita b ilita s , p e r tu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n , d a n p e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g p e r u s a h a a n d a p a t d ije la s k a n m e n g g u n a k a n p e r s a m a a n (1 ):

L E V R , = - 0 , 2 2 7 D I V ,* * - 0 , 3 3 3 P R O F T ,** - 0 , 1 2 2 S A L E S + 0 , 2 7 8 G R O W T H **

(R 2 - 0 ,3 2 8 d a n P e = 0 ,8 2 0 )

K e te ra n g a n : ** = sig n ifik a n p a d a a = 0,05

T a b e l 7

R i n g k a s a n H a s i l E s t i m a s i K o e f i s i e n J a l u r

V a r i a b e l I n d e p e n d e n V a r i a b e l D e p e n d e n K o e f i s i e n B e t a S i g . t

K e b ij a k a n D i v i d e n - 0 , 2 2 7 0 ,0 4 1

P r o f it a b ilit a s T in g k a t H u ta n g

P e r u s a h a a n

- 0 , 3 3 3 0 , 0 0 4

P e r t u m b u h a n P e n j u a la n - 0 , 1 2 2 0 , 2 8 4

P e r t u m b u h a n T o t a l A k t i v a 0 ,2 7 8 0 ,0 2 1

T i n g k a t H u t a n g P e r u s a h a a n N i l a i P e r u s a h a a n - 0 , 2 7 2 0 ,0 4 7

B e r d a s a r k a n h a s il u ji- t s e p e rti y a n g d is a jik a n d a la m T a b e i 7 d a p a t d ilih a t b a h w a v a r ia b e l k e b ija k a n d iv id e n b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a ti f te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g p e r u s a h a a n d e n g a n k o e f is ie n j a l u r s e b e s a r -0 ,2 2 7 . H a l in i d a p a t d ilih a t d a ri n ila i Kitungl = |2,9011 d e n g a n s ig .t = 0 ,0 4 1 . P e n g u jia n in i m e m b e r ik a n k e p u tu s a n b a h w a h ip o te s is s a tu y a n g m e n y a ta k a n k eb ija ka n d ivid en b erp en g a ru h te rh a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g p e ru s a h a a n , d id u k u n g . V a ria b e l p ro f ita b ilita s b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t i f te r h a d a p

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te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g w a la u p u n h a s il p e n g u jia n m e n u n ju k k a n h u b u n g a n n e g a ti f tid a k s ig n ifik a n d e n g a n k o e fis ie n ja l u r s e b e s a r -0 ,1 2 2 . H a l in i d a p a t d ilih a t d a ri n ila i |thi | = 11 ,0 8 1 1 d e n g a n s ig .t = 0 ,2 8 4 . P e n g u jia n in i m e m b e r ik a n k e p u tu s a n b a h w a h ip o te s is tig a y a n g m e n y a ta k a n p e rtu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n b e rp e n g a ru h terh a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g p e ru s a h a a n , tid a k d id u k u n g . V a ria b e l p e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a b e r p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g p e r u s a h a a n d e n g a n k o e fis ie n j a l u r s e b e s a r 0 ,2 7 8 . H a l in i d a p a t d ilih a t d a ri n ila i 1 ^ 1 = |2 ,3 6 7 | d e n g a n n ila i s ig .t = 0 ,0 2 1 . P e n g u jia n in i m e m b e r ik a n k e p u tu s a n b a h w a h ip o te s is e m p a t y a n g m e n y a ta k a n p e rtu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a b erp en g a ru h te rh a d a p tin g ka t h u ta n g p e r u s a h a a n , d id u k u n g .

Hasil Uji Hipotesis 5

H u b u n g a n tin g k a t h u ta n g d a n n ila i p e r u s a h a a n d a p a t d ije la s k a n d e n g a n p e r s a m a a n (2 ):

V A L = 0 , 2 7 2 L E V R *

(R 2 = 0 ,2 7 1 d a n P e 2= .0 ,8 5 4 )

K e te ra n g a n : ** = sig n ifik a n p a d a a = 0,05

B e r d a s a r k a n h a s il u ji- t s e p e rti y a n g d is a jik a n d a la m T a b e l 7 d a p a t d ilih a t b a h w a v a ria b e l tin g k a t h u ta n g b e r h u b u n g a n n e g a ti f te r h a d a p n ila i p e r u s a h a a n d e n g a n k o e fis ie n j a l u r s e b e s a r -0 ,2 7 2 . H a l in i d a p a t d ilih a t d a ri n ila i 1 ^ 1 = |2 ,0 2 5 |, d e n g a n n ila i s ig .t = 0 ,0 4 7 . P e n g u jia n in i m e m b e r ik a n k e p u tu s a n b a h w a h ip o te s is lim a y a n g m e n y a ta k a n tin g k a t h u ta n g p e r u s a h a a n b erh u b u n g a n n e g a tif te rh a d a p n ila i p e ru sa h a a n , d id u k u n g . K e te p a ta n m o d e l h ip o te s is d a ri a n a lis is j a l u r a d a la h R m 2 = 1 - (1 - 0 ,3 2 8 ) x ( 1 - 0 ,2 7 1 ) d ip e r o le h n ila i s e b e s a r 0 ,5 1 0 s e h in g g a tin g k a t k e te p a ta n m o d e l y a n g d ih a s ilk a n a d a la h 5 1 % .

H a s il P e n e lit ia n

Pengaruh Kebijakan Dividen terhadap Tingkat Hutang Perusahaan

K e b ija k a n d iv id e n b e r p e n g a r u h te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g . H a s il in i s e s u a i d e n g a n p r e d ik s i H , y a n g m e n y a ta k a n b a h w a k e b ij a k a n d iv id e n b e r p e n g a r u h te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g d a n k o n s is te n d e n g a n h a s il p e n e litia n A lie n (1 9 9 3 ) d a la m A d e d e ji ( 1 9 9 8 ) d a n K a a ro (2 0 0 1 ) . N a m u n h a s il p e n e litia n in i tid a k k o n s is te n d e n g a n h a s il p e n e litia n B a s k in (1 9 8 9 ) , A d e d e ji (1 9 9 8 ) , s e r ta M a h a d w a r th a d a n H a r to n o (2 0 0 2 ) .

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t-2 4 0 J u r n a l A k u n t a n s i d a n K e u a n g a n I n d o n e s ia , D e s e m b e r 2 0 0 8 , Vol. 5, N o . 2, H a l. 2 2 7 - 2 4 4

u r u ta n p e n d a n a a n b is a d ila k u k a n u n tu k m e n g a ta s i m a s a la h k e le b ih a n a lira n k as in te rn a l (free ca sh flo w ) p a d a p e ru s a h a a n y a n g p ro fita b le d a n lo w g ro w th. D e n g a n d e m ik ia n , p e r u s a h a a n m a s ih m a m p u m e m b a y a r d iv id e n y a n g tin g g i d a n m e m b ia y a i k e s e m p a ta n in v e s ta s i y a n g a d a ta n p a h a ru s m e n c a ri ta m b a h a n d a n a e k s te rn a l d a ri h u ta n g (d e b tfin a n c in g ).

Pengaruh Profitabilitas terhadap Tingkat Hutang Perusahaan

P r o fita b ilita s b e r p e n g a r u h te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g . H a s il in i s e s u a i d e n g a n p r e d ik s i H 2 y a n g m e n y a ta k a n b a h w a p ro f ita b ilita s b e r p e n g a r u h te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g d a n k o n s is te n d e n g a n h a sil p e n e litia n C a r le to n d a n S ilb e r m a n ( 1 9 7 7 ) d a la m K a a r o (2 0 0 1 ) , T itm a n d a n W e s s e ls (1 9 8 8 ), B a r to n d a n S u n d a r a m (1 9 8 9 ) , B a s k in (1 9 8 9 ) , C h a n g d a n R h e e ( 1 9 9 0 ) d a la m K a a ro (2 0 0 1 ) , K a a ro (2 0 0 1 ) , W a h id a h w a ti (2 0 0 2 ) , Is m iy a n ti d a n H a n a fi (2 0 0 3 ) , d a n S u d a rm a (2 0 0 4 ).

P r o fita b ilita s m e n u n ju k k a n a ra h n e g a tif. M a n a je r k e u a n g a n y a n g m e n g g u n a k a n te o ri p e c k in g o rd er a k a n s e la lu m e m p e r b e s a r tin g k a t p r o f ita b ilita s u n tu k m e n in g k a tk a n la b a d ita h a n . A r a h n e g a ti f m e n g in d ik a s ik a n b a h w a p a d a tin g k a t p ro f ita b ilita s re n d a h , p e r u s a h a a n m e n g g u n a k a n tin g k a t h u ta n g u n tu k m e m b ia y a i o p e r a s io n a l. S e b a lik n y a p a d a tin g k a t p ro f ita b ilita s tin g g i, p e r u s a h a a n m e n g u r a n g i p e n g g u n a a n tin g k a t h u ta n g . H a l in i d is e b a b k a n p e r u s a h a a n m e n g a lo k a s ik a n s e b a g ia n b e s a r k e u n tu n g a n p a d a la b a d ita h a n s e h in g g a m e n g a n d a lk a n s u m b e r in te r n a l d a n m e n g g u n a k a n tin g k a t h u ta n g re n d a h .

Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Penjualan terhadap Tingkat Hutang Perusahaan

P e r tu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n tid a k b e r p e n g a r u h te rh a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g . H a s il in i tid a k s e s u a i d e n g a n p r e d ik s i H 3 y a n g m e n y a ta k a n b a h w a p e rtu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n b e r p e n g a r u h te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g d a n tid a k k o n s is te n d e n g a n h a s il p e n e litia n C a r le to n d a n S ilb e r m a n ( 1 9 7 7 ) d a la m K a a r o (2 0 0 1 ), B a r to n e t al. (1 9 8 9 ), d a n K a a ro

(2001).

P e r tu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n c e n d e r u n g b e r s if a t le b ih p e n d e k d a ri p e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a , s e d a n g k a n k e p u tu s a n p e n d a n a a n le b ih b e r s if a t ja n g k a p a n ja n g . D a la m j a n g k a p e n d e k , m a n a je m e n d a p a t m e la k u k a n ea rn in g m anagem ent.

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P e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a p e r u s a h a a n le b ih m e n c e r m in k a n h o r is o n w a k tu le b ih p a n ja n g d a ri p e r tu m b u h a n p e n ju a la n . In v e s ta s i p a d a a k tiv a m e m b u tu h k a n w a k tu s e b e lu m s ia p d io p e r a s ik a n s e h in g g a a k tiv ita s y a n g d ila k u k a n tid a k la n g s u n g te r k a it d e n g a n p e n e r im a a n . O le h k a r e n a itu , p e n in g k a ta n a k tiv a d ila k u k a n p e r u s a h a a n b ila te r d a p a t p r o s p e k b a g u s .

P e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a m e n u n ju k k a n a r a h p o s itif. H a l in i m e n g in d ik a s ik a n b a h w a p a d a tin g k a t p e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a re n d a h , p e r u s a h a a n m e n g u r a n g i p e n g g u n a a n tin g k a t h u ta n g . S e b a lik n y a p a d a tin g k a t p e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a tin g g i, p e r u s a h a a n m e n g g u n a k a n tin g k a t h u ta n g u n tu k m e m e n u h i k e b u tu h a n d a n a in te rn a l. B e r d a s a r k a n te o ri p e c k in g order, b ila d a n a e k s te r n a l d ib u tu h k a n , p e r u s a h a a n m e m ilih s u m b e r d a n a y a n g p e r ta m a d a ri h u ta n g .

Hubungan Tingkat Hutang Perusahaan dan Nilai Perusahaan

T in g k a t h u ta n g b e r h u b u n g a n n e g a ti f d e n g a n n ila i p e r u s a h a a n . H a s il in i s e s u a i d e n g a n p r e d ik s i H 5 d a n k o n s is te n d e n g a n h a s il p e n e litia n S u d a r m a (2 0 0 4 ).

T in g k a t h u ta n g m e n u n ju k k a n a ra h n e g a tif, a r tin y a p a d a tin g k a t tin g k a t h u ta n g re n d a h , n ila i p e r u s a h a a n tin g g i. S e b a lik n y a p a d a tin g k a t tin g k a t h u ta n g tin g g i, n ila i p e r u s a h a a n re n d a h . S e s u a i d e n g a n p e c k in g o rd er theory, m a k a p e r u s a h a a n d e n g a n p r o f ita b ilita s r e n d a h a k a n m e m p u n y a i d a n a in te rn a l y a n g r e l a t if s e d ik it s e h in g g a m e m e r lu k a n le b ih b a n y a k p e n d a n a a n e k s te rn a l, y a n g te r u ta m a b e r a s a l d a ri h u ta n g . K a r e n a s e m a k in r e n d a h p ro f ita b ilita s te r k a it d e n g a n n ila i p e r u s a h a a n y a n g s e m a k in r e n d a h d a n tin g k a t h u ta n g y a n g s e m a k in tin g g i, a k ib a tn y a te r d a p a t h u b u n g a n n e g a t i f a n ta r a tin g k a t h u ta n g d a n n ila i p e r u s a h a a n .

K E S I M P U L A N , K E T E R B A T A S A N D A N S A R A N

S tu d i in i m e n e m u k a n b a h w a k e b ij a k a n d iv id e n d a n p r o f ita b ilita s b e r p e n g a r u h n e g a t i f te rh a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g . P e r tu m b u h a n to ta l a k tiv a b e r p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f te r h a d a p tin g k a t h u ta n g , s e d a n g k a n tin g k a t h u ta n g b e r h u b u n g a n n e g a ti f te r h a d a p n ila i p e ru s a h a a n .

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A d a p u n b e b e r a p a s a r a n d a ri p e n e litia n in i y a itu : 1) U n tu k p e ru s a h a a n : a g a r m e n in g k a tk a n k e h a ti- h a tia n d a la m m e m p e r tim b a n g k a n p e n g e lo la a n d a n p e n g a m b ila n k e p u tu s a n p e n d a n a a n d a ri h u ta n g k a r e n a h a l te r s e b u t a k a n b e r d a m p a k n e g a t i f te r h a d a p n ila i p e r u s a h a a n . U n tu k m e m in im a lk a n ris ik o , s e b a ik n y a s e b e lu m m e n g a m b il k e p u tu s a n p e n d a n a a n d a ri h u ta n g , p e r u s a h a a n m e n g g u n a k a n s u m b e r p e n d a n a a n in te rn a ln y a ; 2 ) U n tu k p e n e liti la in : P e r ta m a , p e n e liti la in d a p a t m e n g e m b a n g k a n p e n e litia n in i d i m a s a m e n d a ta n g d e n g a n m e n g u ji k e m b a li k o n s is te n s i h a s il p e n e litia n in i d e n g a n m e n g e m b a n g k a n v a r ia b e l la in , s e p e rti ris ik o k e u a n g a n d a n u k u r a n p e r u s a h a a n , s e r ta p e n a m b a h a n ju m la h p e r io d e p e n e litia n , m is a l lim a ta h u n p e r io d e p e n e litia n . K e d u a , p e n e litia n le b ih la n ju t d ih a ra p k a n d a p a t m e n g g u n a k a n s a m p e l d a ri s e k to r in d u s tri s e la in p e m s a h a a n m a n u f a k tu r y a n g m e m p u n y a i s p e s ifik a s i b e r b e d a , m is a ln y a p e r b a n k a n , s e h in g g a d ip e ro le h p e r b a n d in g a n h a s il p e n e litia n .

D A F T A R P U S T A K A

A d e d e ji, A . “ D o e s th e P e c k in g O r d e r H y p o th e s is E x p la in th e D iv id e n d P a y o u t R a tio s o f F ir m s in th e U K ? .” J o u r n a l o f B u sin e ss F in a n c e & A c c o u n tin g 2 5 , n o .9 & 10 (N o v /D e c 1 9 9 8 ): 1 1 2 7 -1 1 5 5 .

A lim a n . M o d u l E k o n o m e trik a Terapan. Y o g y a k a rta : P A U S tu d i E k o n o m i U G M , 2 0 0 0

.

A rie f, S ritu a . M e to d o lo g i P e n e litia n E k o n o m i. J a k a rta : U I P r e s s , 1 9 9 3 .

B a rto n , S .L ., N .C . H ill, a n d S. S u n d a ra m . “ A n E m p iric a l T e st o f S ta k e h o ld e r T h e o ry P re d ic tio n o f C a p ita l S tru c tu re .” F in a n c ia l M anagem ent, S p rin g 19 89 , 3 6 -4 4 . B a s k in , J. “ A n E m p ir ic a l I n v e s tig a tio n o f th e P e c k in g O r d e r H y p o th e s is .” F in a n c ia l

M a n a g em en t, S p r in g 1 9 8 9 , 2 6 -3 5 .

B r ig h a m , E .F . F u n d a m e n ta ls o f F in a n c ia l M a n a g e m e n t 7lh. N e w Y o rk : T h e D r y d e n P r e s s , 1 99 5.

D a r m a d ji, T jip to n o a n d H e n d y M . F a k h r u d d in . P a s a r M o d a l d i In d o n e s ia:

P e n d e k a ta n Tanya J a w a b . J a k a rta : S a le m b a E m p a t, 2 0 0 1 . D ja r w a n to d a n S u b a g y o . S ta tis tik I n d u k t i fY o g y a k a rta : B P F E , 1 9 9 6 .

G u ja r a ti, D a m o d a r. E k o n o m e trik a Dasar, A lih B a h a sa S u m a rn o Z a in . J a k a rta : E r la n g g a , 1 99 7.

H u s n a n , S u a d . M a n a je m en K e u a n g a n Teori d a n P en era p a n : K e p u tu sa n J a n g k a P e n d e k 3rdB u k u K ed u a . Y o g y a k a rta : B P F E , 1 9 9 4 .

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I s m iy a n ti, F itri d a n H a n a fi. “ K e p e m ilik a n M a n a je r ia l, K e p e m ilik a n I n s titu s io n a l, R is ik o , K e b ija k a n H u ta n g , d a n K e b ija k a n D iv id e n : A n a lis is P e r s a m a a n

S im u lta n .” S im p o siu m N a s io n a l A k u n ta n s i VI, S u r a b a y a 1 6 -1 7 O k to b e r 2 0 0 3 ,

2 6 0 -2 7 7 .

J o n e s , C h a r le s P. In v e stm e n t A n a ly s is a n d M a n a g e m e n t 6th. 1 9 9 8 . N e w Y o rk : J o h n W ile y a n d S o n s ln c .

K a a r o , H e r m e in d ito . “ A n a lis is T in g k a t H u ta n g d a n D iv id e n d a la m L in g k u n g a n K e tid a k p a s tia n : P e n d e k a ta n P e c k in g O r d e r T h e o r y d a n B a la n c in g T h e o r y .”

S im p o siu m N a s io n a l A k u n ta n s i IV , 2 0 0 1 , 1 0 6 7 -1 0 8 3 .

K o m a la s a r i, P u p u t T ri d a n Z a k i B a r id w a n . “ A s im e tr i In f o r m a s i d a n C o s t o f E q u ity C a p ita l.” J u r n a l R ise t A k u n ta n s i In d o n e s ia 4, n o . 1 (2 0 0 1 ): 6 4 -8 1 .

M a h a d w a r th a , P .A . d a n J. H a rto n o . “ U ji T e o ri K e a g e n a n D a la m H u b u n g a n I n te r d e p e n d e n s i A n ta r a K e b ija k a n H u ta n g d e n g a n K e b ija k a n D iv id e n .”

S im p o siu m N a sio n a l A k u n ta n s i V, S e m a r a n g 5 -6 S e p te m b e r 2 0 0 2 , 6 3 5 -6 4 7 . R a o , R a m e s h K .S . F in a n c ia l M a n a g em en t: C o n cep ts a n d A p p lic a tio n 3rd. O h io :

I n te r n a tio n a l T h o m s o n P u b lis h in g , 1 9 95 .

R iy a n to , B am b an g . D asar-D asar Pem belanjaan Perusahaan. Y o gy ak arta: B P F E , 1997. R iz k y a n i, N o v ita . “ A n a lis is F a k to r - f a k to r y a n g M e m p e n g a r u h i K e b ija k a n H u ta n g

P e r u s a h a a n .” S k r ip s i, U n iv e r s ita s B r a w ija y a M a la n g , 2 0 0 6 .

S a n to s o , S in g g ih . S P S S Versi 10: M e n g o la h D a ta S ta tis tik S e ca ra P ro fe sio n a l.

J a k a rta : P T . E le x M e d ia K o m p u tin d o , 2 0 0 1 .

S a rto n o , A g u s. M anajem en K euangan: Teori dan A p lika si 3rd. Y o g y a k arta : B P F E , 19 99 .

S c o tt, W illia m R . F in a n c ia l A c c o u n tin g Theory. N e w J e rs e y : P r e n tic e H a ll I n te r n a tio n a l, 2 0 0 0 .

S e tia w a n , A g u s tin u s , F a u z ia h M d . T a ib , d a n S u h a im i S h a h n o n . “ T h e D e te r m in a n t o f C o r p o r a te D e b t in I n d o n e s ia n P u b lic L is te d C o m p a n y .” J u rn a l B isn is d a n E k o n o m i (D ia n E k o n o m i) 7 , n o . 1 (2 0 0 2 ): 1 -1 6 .

S h y a m -S u n d e r , L . a n d S .C . M y e r s . “ T e s tin g S ta tic T r a d e o f f A g a in s t P e c k in g O r d e r M o d e ls o f C a p ita l S tr u c tu r e .” J o u rn a l o f F in a n c ia l E c o n o m ic s 5 1 (1 9 9 9 ) : 2 1 9 -2 4 4 .

S in g a r im b u n , M a s r i d a n S o f y a n E ffe n d i. M e to d e P e n e litia n S u rve i 2nd (R evisi).

J a k a rta : L P 3 E S , 1 9 9 5 .

S o lim u n . M u ltiv a ria te A n a ly sis: S tru c tu ra l E q u a tio n M o d e l (SE M ), L IS R E L , dan A M O S . M a la n g : U n iv e r s ita s N e g e ri M a la n g , 2 0 0 2 .

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2 4 4 J u r n a l A k u n ta n s i d a n K e u a n g a n I n d o n e s ia , D e s e m b e r 2 0 0 8 , Vol. 5, N o . 2, H a l. 2 2 7 - 2 4 4

S u lis ty o r in i, N o v ita . “ P e n e n tu a n P e n d a n a a n y a n g O p tim a l d e n g a n A n a lis is F in a n c ia l

T in g k a t h u ta n g : S tu d i K a s u s p a d a PT. S e m e n G r e s ik (P e r s e r o ) T b k .” S k rip si, U n iv e r s ita s B ra w ija y a M a la n g , 2 0 0 2 .

S u n d ja ja , R id w a n S ., d a n In g e B a rlia n . M a n a jem en K eu a n g a n D u a . J a k a rta : L ite r a ta L in ta s M e d ia , 2 0 0 3 .

S y a m s u d d in , L u k m a n . M a n a jem en K eu a n g a n P e ru sa h a a n : K o n sep da n A p lik a si d a la m P erencanaan, P e n g a w a sa n , d a n P e n g a m b ila n K ep u tu sa n . J a k a rta :

R a ja w a li, 19 95 .

T a rjo d a n J o g iy a n to . “ A n a lis is F r e e C a s h F lo w d a n K e p e m ilik a n M a n a je ria l te rh a d a p K e b ija k a n H u ta n g p a d a P e r u s a h a a n P u b lik di I n d o n e s ia .” S im p o siu m N a sio n a l A k u n ta n si VI, S u r a b a y a 1 6 -1 7 O k to b e r 2 0 0 3 , 2 7 8 -2 9 5 .

T itm a n , S h e rid a n a n d R o b e r to W e sse ls . “T h e D e te r m in a n t o f C a p ita l S tr u c tu re C h o ic e .” J o u rn a l o f F in a n c e 4 3 (1 9 8 8 ): 1 -1 9.

V a n H o m e , J a m e s A . F in a n c ia l M a n a g e m e n t a n d Policy, in te rn a tio n a l ed. N e w J e rse y : P r e n tic e H a ll I n te rn a tio n a l, 1 99 5.

W a h id a h w a ti. “ K e p e m ilik a n M a n a je r ia l d a n A g e n c y C o n flic t: A n a lis is P e r s a m a a n S im u lta n N o n - L in e a r d a ri K e p e m ilik a n M a n a je r ia l, P e n e r im a a n R is ik o (R isk Taking), K e b ija k a n H u ta n g , d a n K e b ija k a n D iv id e n .” S im p o siu m N a sio n a l

A k u n ta n si V S e m a ra n g 5 -6 S e p te m b e r 2 0 0 2 , 6 0 1 -6 2 5 .

W e s to n , J.F. a n d T .E . C o p e la n d . M a n a je m e n K eu a n g a n J ilid K esa tu , a lih b a h a s a o le h A . J a k a W a s a n a d a n K irb r a n d o k o . J a k a rta : B in a r u p a A k s a ra , 1 99 5. W e s to n , J.F. a n d T .E . C o p e la n d . M a n a je m e n K e u a n g a n J ilid K ed u a , a lih b a h a s a

o le h A . J a k a W a s a n a d a n K irb r a n d o k o . J a k a rta : B in a r u p a A k s a ra , 1 99 7 . W e s to n , J.F . a n d E .F . B rig h a m . D a sa r -d a sa r M a n a jem e n K eu a n g a n 9,h J ilid K ed u a ,

a lih b a h a s a o le h A lfo n s u s S ira it. J a k a rta : E r la n g g a , 1 9 9 4 .

W e s to n , J.F . d a n E .F . B rig h a m . D a sa r -d a sa r M a n a je m e n K e u a n g a n J ilid K ed u a ,