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Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Monthly total domestic cement consumption
Source: Company data, ASI, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
May 18, 2017
Cement: Surprising volume growth in April
Konsumsi semen domestik pada bulan April mencapai 5.1mn ton (+11.0% YoY).
Volume ekspor bulan April mencapai 224,277 ton (+124.7% YoY; +34.7% MoM).
Volume penjualan bag semen tercatat menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang kuat di bulan April (+11.5% YoY), dibandingkan dengan semen curah (+9.5% YoY). Menurut pandangan kami, pertumbuhan kuat bag semen dapat menjadi indikator bahwa sektor properti mulai meningkat. Menurut data Bank Indonesia (BI), kredit pemilikan rumah (KPR) dan kredit pemilikan apartemen (KPA) menunjukkan perbaikan meski sedikit. Meskipun demikian, secara kumulatif pada 4M17, semen curah masih menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi (+6.3% YoY) vs. bag semen (+2.0% YoY). Secara keseluruhan, konsumsi semen 4M17 tumbuh 3.0% YoY menjadi 19.8mn ton, masih tidak terlalu tinggi namun cukup menggembirakan.
Dalam laporan sektor semen kami sebelumnya mengenai update bulan Maret yang berjudul "Java’s growth encouraging", kami menyoroti pertumbuhan demand yang positif di Jawa, yang ternyata berlanjut pada bulan April dengan kenaikan dua digit (+14.7% YoY), lebih tinggi dari pertumbuhan industri (+11.0% YoY). Sebagai kontributor konsumsi semen terbesar, pertumbuhan konsumsi semen di Pulau Jawa di bulan April disokong oleh pertumbuhan yang tinggi di Yogyakarta (+46.0% YoY), Jawa Timur (+24.9% YoY), dan Jawa Tengah (+23.0% YoY).
Menurut pandangan kami, pertumbuhan konsumsi semen di bulan April merupakan sentimen positif bagi sektor semen. Namun kami masih ragu apakah pertumbuhan tinggi di April bisa berlanjut di bulan Mei dan Juni. Konsumsi semen biasanya sangat rendah saat Lebaran karena hari kerja yang lebih sedikit. Kami juga masih kuatir akan persaingan ketat industri yang menyeret turun harga jual rata-rata (ASP) produsen semen, yang kami percaya masih terjadi. Saat ini, kami masih mempertahankan Underweight call kami di sektor semen.
Market Index
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
JCI 5,615.5 -0.6 0.7 19.3
MSCI Indonesia 25.8 -2.6 2.1 20.5
MSCI EM 1,008.6 -0.6 6.0 27.8
HANG SENG 25,293.6 -0.2 5.9 27.8
KOSPI 2,293.1 -0.6 6.7 17.2
FTSE 7,503.5 -0.2 5.2 22.0
DJIA 20,606.9 -1.8 2.2 19.7
NASDAQ 6,011.2 -2.6 5.5 30.2
Valuation
2017F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
JCI 16.0 2.4 18.3
Key Rates
Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY
BI 7-Day RR 4.75 0 0 -50*
3yr 6.76 -6 12 -54
10yr 7.04 -1 -2 -66
*since introduced in Aug 2016
FX
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
USD/IDR 13,324.00 0.2 0.1 0.0
USD/KRW 1,118.20 0.2 -2.1 -5.5
USD/JPY 110.83 -2.0 2.2 0.6
USD/CNY 6.88 -0.1 0.1 5.6
Commodities
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
WTI 49.1 0.8 -7.2 -3.5
Gold 1,261.4 1.9 -2.2 0.2
Coal 73.8 -0.4 -12.3 45.1
Palm Oil 2,886.0 -2.1 8.5 8.7
Rubber 166.1 0.0 -3.2 18.9
Nickel 9,215.0 1.0 -1.0 6.7
Copper 5,610.0 0.0 0.7 21.6
Tin 20,205.0 -0.9 4.6 21.5
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
650 800 950 1,100
3,500 4,500 5,500
05/13 05/14 05/15 05/16 05/17
JCI MSCI EM (pt)
(pt)
800 950 1,100
4,500 5,500
(pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt)
2
Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia cartoon
Local flashes
TBIG: Tower Bersama siapkan dana Rp2,5 triliun untuk tambah 2.500 menara baru.
PT Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk (TBIG) berencana menambah 2.500 menara baru.
Hal itu disampaikan Direktur Tower Bersama Infrastructure, Helmy Yasman, di Jakarta, Rabu. Helmy menuturkan, perusahaan akan terus berusaha untuk memperkuat bisnisnya di bidang usaha menara telekomunikasi. Oleh karena itu, Perseroan optimis pada tahun ini bisa menambah sebanyak 2.500 menara baru. Dana tersebut akan berasal dari kas internal dan juga pinjaman sindikasi. (Iqplus)
AGRO: Rights issue, BRI Agro bidik dana hingga Rp 1,15 triliun. PT Bank BRI Agro Tbk (BRI Agro) berencana melakukan rights issuepada 2017 ini. Dari rights issue ini bank berkode AGRO ini menargetkan perolehan dana sebesar Rp 999,9 miliar sampai Rp 1,15 triliun. Dalam keterbukaan informasi ke bursa efek Indonesia (BEI), harga pelaksanaanrights issue ini adalah Rp 130 sampai Rp 150 per saham. Dana yang diperoleh dari rights issue ini akan digunakan untuk memperkuat struktur permodalan dan mendukung pertumbuhan kredit. (Kontan)
WICO: Wicaksana Overseas perluas wilayah distribusi. Perusahaan distribusi, PT Wicaksana Overseas International Tbk(WICO) membidik bisa meluaskan cakupan distribusi produk. Tahun ini, emiten ini tengah menjajaki 3 calon prinsipal baru.
Sayangnya, manajemen belum bisa menjabarkan dari perusahaan mana saja prinsipal itu. Sektornya berasal dari industri makanan dan minuman. “Kami harapkan kuartal 4 transaksinya sudah berjalan," ujar Eddy Suwandi Direktur Utama WICO. Langkah mencari hubungan bisnis yang baru tersebut, menjadi strategi WICO untuk meningkatan pendapatan. (Kontan)
MAYA: Bank Mayapada bagi dividen Rp 40 per saham. Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Tahunan (RUPST) tahun buku 2016 PT Bank Mayapada Internasional Tbk menyepakati pembagian dividen sebesar 24% dari laba bersih 2016 atau sebesar Rp 196,77 miliar. Nilai dividen setara Rp 40 per saham. Selain itu, RUPST juga menetapkan pencadangan dari laba bersih sampai 20% dari total modal disetor. Perseroan mencadangkan 2,44% dari laba bersih tahun 2016, yakni Rp 20 miliar. (Kontan)
GDYR: Goodyear bakal genjot produksi. PT Goodyear Indonesia Tbk. mengungkapkan akan meningkatkan utilitas pabrik untuk memperluas pasar domestik. Presiden Direktur GDYR Allan Loi mengungkapkan sejauh ini perkembangan pasar otomtif dalam negeri cukup positif buat para pemain industri ban. Apalagi, pada tahun lalu, perbaikan indikator makro ekonomi global maupun nasional, kian menguatkan permintaan konsumsi otomotif. (Bisnis Indonesia)
ADMF: Adira Finance tebar dividen Rp 505 miliar. Emiten multifinance PT Adira Dinamika Multi Finance kembali tebar dividen di tahun ini. Total deviden yang dibagi- bagikan kepada pemegang saham mencapai Rp 505 miliar alias Rp 505 per lembar saham. Direktur Adira Finance, I Dewa Made Susila mengatakan, pembagian dividen tahun ini setara dengan 50% dari laba bersih Adira di tahun kemarin. Rasio tersebut sama dengan dividen yang ditebar Adira di tahun lalu. (Kontan)
KINO: Kino Indonesia bagi dividen Rp35,7 miliar. PT Kino Indonesia Tbk. membagikan dividen senilai Rp35,7 miliar atau setara 20% dari total laba bersih 2016. Direktur Keuangan Kino Indonesia Peter Chayson mengungkapkan laba pada 2016 mencapai Rp181 miliar. Dia mengungkapkan laba perseroan menurun karena pelemahan daya beli pada tahun lalu. (Bisnis Indonesia)
4
Chart 1. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 2. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 3. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 4. Energy price
Note: The latest figure for India are May 16th, 2017
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 5. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 6. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 13,100
13,300 13,500 13,700
4,800 5,000 5,200 5,400 5,600 5,800
2/15 3/15 4/12 5/10
(IDR)
(pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R)
-0.6 -1.4
0.2
18.6
0.1
-2.3
-5.2
-8.4 -12
-8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20
1D 1W 1M 1Y
Absolute Relative (%, %p)
(%, %p) (%, %p)
0 31
-15
37 10
163
-118 225
107 109 45
800
-200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000
Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India
1 Day 5 Days
(USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn)
75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115
2/15 3/15 4/12 5/10
CPO WTI Coal
(D-3M=100) (D-3M=100)
80 85 90 95 100 105
2/15 3/15 4/12 5/10
(D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin
80 85 90 95 100 105 110
2/15 3/15 4/12 5/10
Silver Gold Platinum
(D-3M=100)
Table. Key valuation metrics
Company Name Ticker
Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)*
(IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17
Jakarta Composite Index JCI 5,615 6,172,752 -0.6 -1.4 0.7 18.7 16.0 14.0 2.5 2.2 18.3 21.8
FINANCIALS
Bank Central Asia BBCA 16,950 417,902 -2.6 -5.8 0.1 30.4 18.5 18.3 3.4 3.2 20.4 18.9
Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 12,000 280,000 0.2 0.0 3.2 37.1 19.6 14.0 1.8 1.7 10.3 12.5
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 14,100 347,835 0.5 0.7 13.5 45.4 10.9 12.4 1.9 2.1 20.2 18.3
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 6,500 121,216 -0.8 -2.3 4.0 50.8 9.1 9.1 1.2 1.3 13.9 14.5
Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 2,430 25,734 3.8 -0.8 7.0 42.5 13.3 12.3 1.0 1.2 7.6 10.2
CONSUMER
HM Sampoerna HMSP 3,840 446,661 -0.5 0.8 -2.3 -2.0 34.8 32.9 13.0 12.5 38.6 38.5
Gudang Garam GGRM 70,100 134,879 -0.6 -1.5 8.5 -4.0 18.4 17.9 3.1 3.1 17.3 17.9
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 8,700 101,459 1.5 0.9 6.7 9.4 27.8 26.1 5.7 5.1 21.8 21.1
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 8,475 74,414 1.2 0.0 6.3 20.6 18.3 16.6 2.4 2.3 14.7 14.5
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,500 70,313 -0.7 -3.5 -2.6 15.4 30.9 27.6 6.0 5.3 20.6 19.2
Unilever Indonesia UNVR 47,750 364,333 -0.1 3.4 5.4 10.9 46.3 50.4 62.9 65.8 134.1 137.8
AGRICULTURAL
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 14,425 27,764 -1.5 -0.7 -1.0 2.1 14.8 14.3 1.9 1.6 14.1 11.2
PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,490 10,166 -2.0 3.8 6.8 -4.8 20.0 13.0 1.6 1.2 7.9 9.8
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,735 16,526 -0.6 2.4 1.2 -2.8 22.5 22.5 3.9 4.1 18.3 18.4
INFRASTRUCTURE
XL Axiata EXCL 3,080 32,919 2.3 -1.3 4.8 -6.9 60.8 79.2 1.2 1.5 2.1 1.5
Jasa Marga JSMR 4,800 34,838 0.0 0.4 4.1 -9.2 15.6 18.0 2.3 2.3 15.7 13.1
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,290 55,513 -3.0 -5.4 -7.7 -0.9 15.3 10.7 1.5 1.3 9.8 12.5
Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 5,575 25,263 0.5 -1.8 -7.1 -17.1 17.4 20.2 14.3 8.4 83.6 51.1
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 4,340 437,472 0.0 0.0 8.7 17.2 20.3 18.9 4.7 4.5 24.3 24.0
Soechi Lines SOCI 316 2,231 1.9 -8.7 -14.1 -21.4 8.2 4.7 0.9 N/A 15.9 10.1
Garuda Indonesia GIAA 344 8,905 0.6 -1.7 -10.4 -25.2 31.7 21.7 2.6 2.7 8.6 13.2
BASIC-INDUSTRIES
Semen Indonesia SMGR 9,100 53,977 -1.1 4.0 3.4 0.6 12.0 14.5 1.9 1.8 16.3 12.4
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 3,000 49,194 0.0 -2.3 -5.7 -1.0 22.6 16.0 3.6 3.0 16.5 19.7
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 18,325 67,459 -0.8 9.7 10.1 10.7 14.6 19.9 2.2 2.4 15.5 12.2
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,260 14,377 6.8 3.7 -18.7 38.5 7.7 8.0 1.9 1.4 28.6 19.5
MINING
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 14,850 16,779 -1.0 -14.8 -24.2 80.0 10.4 6.2 1.5 1.3 15.0 19.9
Adaro Energy ADRO 1,410 45,100 -3.8 -9.0 -23.8 102.9 12.0 8.1 1.3 1.0 11.1 11.7
Aneka Tambang ANTM 705 16,942 0.7 11.9 -2.1 1.4 298.3 61.5 1.2 0.9 0.4 2.6
Vale Indonesia INCO 1,910 18,978 -4.0 -1.0 -14.3 27.3 N/A 35.9 1.1 0.8 0.1 1.7
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 10,575 24,366 -2.5 -7.0 -17.5 60.8 13.1 7.8 2.5 1.9 20.5 25.4
TRADE
United Tractors UNTR 23,100 86,166 -3.0 -9.4 -15.2 80.5 15.8 13.0 1.9 1.9 12.7 15.4
AKR Corporindo AKRA 6,275 25,101 0.0 -4.6 -3.8 6.4 23.5 20.4 3.5 3.2 15.7 16.0
Global Mediacom BMTR 640 9,087 -1.5 -0.8 25.5 -45.3 41.8 N/A 0.9 N/A 2.0 N/A
Matahari Department Store LPPF 14,800 43,185 -1.0 -1.8 10.9 -21.3 21.9 19.5 23.8 14.4 136.4 86.2
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,915 27,339 -2.3 -5.2 10.1 -16.7 17.7 15.3 2.7 2.5 15.4 16.8
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 815 4,383 -2.4 -4.7 -16.0 -38.3 211.4 26.6 3.3 1.8 1.6 4.7
Surya Citra Media SCMA 2,870 41,964 0.3 0.0 2.1 -13.6 27.2 23.3 11.9 10.3 45.7 46.6
Siloam International Hospital SILO 12,000 15,607 -1.4 -11.4 -11.6 38.2 150.3 109.0 4.5 4.9 3.5 4.6 PROPERTY
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,700 32,719 -5.8 -6.8 -3.7 -1.2 18.8 13.8 1.6 1.4 9.1 10.5
Adhi Karya ADHI 2,210 7,869 0.9 0.5 -2.2 -13.7 23.6 13.4 1.4 1.3 5.9 9.8
Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 320 6,288 -3.0 -6.4 -8.6 -11.6 13.6 7.2 1.0 0.8 7.5 12.1
Ciputra Development CTRA 1,125 20,880 -3.0 -4.3 -9.6 -11.2 19.9 16.2 2.2 1.5 9.8 11.0
Lippo Karawaci LPKR 725 16,731 -2.0 -11.6 -2.0 -22.5 18.6 15.9 0.9 0.8 5.0 5.3
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 2,950 18,290 3.9 1.7 -12.2 -12.6 23.1 12.9 2.4 1.7 14.4 14.3
Pakuwon Jati PWON 570 27,451 -5.0 -13.6 -0.9 11.8 16.3 13.4 3.1 2.5 21.0 19.9
Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,250 18,033 -4.2 -10.7 -6.4 -9.7 61.3 43.0 3.1 2.6 5.1 6.4
Wijaya Karya WIKA 2,250 20,182 0.9 0.4 -3.8 4.7 14.4 15.9 1.8 1.5 12.9 10.3
Waskita Karya WSKT 2,300 31,220 0.9 1.3 -1.3 -10.9 17.3 13.0 3.1 2.0 16.6 16.7
MISCELLANEOUS
Astra International ASII 8,350 338,038 -2.9 -4.0 -0.3 32.0 22.1 17.1 3.0 2.7 14.2 16.5
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
*Note: Valuation metrics based on Bloomberg consensus estimates
6
Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,800.0 -0.9 INAF IJ 3390 10,507 6.94
Mining 1,346.1 -1.4 JPFA IJ 1260 14,377 6.78
Basic-Industry 613.9 0.0 PTPP IJ 2950 18,290 3.87
Miscellaneous Industry 1,420.9 -2.3 BBTN IJ 2430 25,734 3.85
Consumer Goods 2,494.5 0.0 NIKL IJ 5475 13,815 3.8
Property & Construction 479.3 -1.2 RMBA IJ 468 17,036 3.54
Infrastructure 1,130.6 0.3 SMSM IJ 1180 6,795 3.51
Finance 894.0 -0.7 TOWR IJ 3750 38,261 3.02
Trade 894.4 -0.8 TELE IJ 1200 8,763 3.0
Composite 5,615.5 -0.6 SMBR IJ 3280 32,286 2.50
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
BBRI IJ 0.5 14,100 BBCA IJ -2.6 16,950
ICBP IJ 1.5 8,700 ASII IJ -2.9 8,350
TPIA IJ 1.3 27,800 UNTR IJ -3.0 23,100
TOWR IJ 3.0 3,750 HMSP IJ -0.5 3,840
BBTN IJ 3.9 2,430 BSDE IJ -5.8 1,700
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
6:50am JPY Prelim GDP q/q 0.4% 0.3%
6:50am JPY Prelim GDP Price Index y/y -0.7% -0.1%
8:00am AUD MI Inflation Expectations 4.1%
8:30am AUD Employment Change 4.5K 60.9K
8:30am AUD Unemployment Rate 5.9% 5.9%
18th-19th CNY Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y 1.0%
3:30pm GBP Retail Sales m/m 1.2% -1.8%
Tentative EUR Spanish 10-y Bond Auction
Tentative EUR French 10-y Bond Auction
7:30pm CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 38.84B
7:30pm USD Unemployment Claims 240K 236K
7:30pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 19.9 22.0
9:00pm USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.4% 0.4%
9:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 61B 45B
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory
Disclaimers
This report is prepared strictly for private circulation only to clients of PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (MASI). It is purposed only to person having professional experience in matters relating to investments. The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. No warranty (express or implied) is made to the accuracy or completeness of the information. All opinions and estimates included in this report constitute our judgments as of this date, without regards to its fairness, and are subject to change without notice. However, none of MASI and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of MASI, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither MASI, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.
This document is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. This firms and its affiliates and their officers and employees may have a position, make markets, act as principal or engage in transaction in securities or related investments of any company mentioned herein, may perform services for or solicit business from any company mentioned herein, and may have acted upon or used any of the recommendations herein before they have been provided to you. © PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 2016.
