Previous Day:
Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Senin (3/8), IHSG turun sebanyak 2,35 poin (0,05%) ke level 4800,18. Ada sebanyak 115 saham yang naik, 169 saham yang turun, dan 87 saham yang stagnan. LQ45 naik sebanyak 1,96 poin (0,24%) ke level 815,05. Sektor-sektor di zona hijau adalah sektor keuangan naik 1,76%, sektor konstruksi naik 0,74%, dan sektor aneka industri naik 0,31%. Sektor-sektor di zona merah adalah sek-tor consumer goods turun 1,28%, sektor agrikultur turun 1,18%, dan sektor perdagangan turun 1,08%. Total
perda-gangan sebanyak Rp 4,537 triliun. Foreign net buy sebesar Rp
327,99 miliar. Indeks Nikkei turun 0,18%. Indeks Strait times melemah 0,35%. Indeks Hang Seng jatuh 1,11%. Indeks Kom-posit Shanghai turun 1,11%.
Today’s Market:
Secara teknikal indeks hari Selasa (4/8) diperkirakan
ber-gerak berber-gerak mixed di kisaran level 4778-4837. Bursa
sa-ham China mengalami pelemahan dengan adanya data caixin
china purchasing managers (PMI) bulan Juli yang mencetak terendah selama 2 tahun yakni di level 47,8 (estimasi 48,2).
Dari Amerika (AS) merilis data ISM Manufacturing PMI yang
berada di level 52,7 (estimasi 54). Bursa saham Amerika di-tutup negatif dengan adanya penurunan harga minyak yang disebabkan oleh kelebihan supply dan melambatnya permin-taan dari China. Harga crude oil AS melemah 4,14% ke US$ 45,2 per barrel dan dengan adanya produksi dari Iran turut mempengaruhi harga minyak. Harga emas juga tertekan aki-bat nilai Dollar AS yang menguat. Dari dalam negeri, data inflasi bulan Juli mencapai 0,93% MoM atau 7,26% YoY. Hal ini didukung oleh masa lebaran yang menunjukkan daya beli
masyarakat cukup tinggi.Selain itu juga, menantikan
dirilis-nya data consumer confidence dalam negeri yang
sebelum-nya dilevel 111,3 dan dirilissebelum-nya kinerja perusahaan.
Top Technical Buys:
SMRA, LPCK, BSDE, BBRI
Sinarmas Investment Research/+6221 3925550/research@sinarmassekuritas.co.id
UNDERVALUED STOCKS 2015: ROTI 1,430
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
Tuesday, August 04, 2015
DAILY RESEARCH
C lo s in g J CI Tra n s a c tio n Va lu e (Rp tn ) Tra n s a c tio n Vo lu me (mn s h a re s ) Fo re ig n Ne t Bu y (S e ll) (Rp b n ) 3 2 7 .9 9 Fo re ig n Ne t Bu y (S e ll) YTD (Rp tn ) 4 .6 9 a s p e rc e n ta g e o f la s t ye a r's (0 .9 3 )To ta l Ma rke t Ca p ita liza tio n (Rp tn ) 4 ,5 9 6 .6 1
C lo s in g 1 D a y R e tu rn % Y TD C h a n g e % 4 ,8 0 0 .2 (0 .0 5 ) (8 .2 ) 8 15 .1 0 .2 4 (9 .3 ) 2 2 .3 2 (0 .9 8 ) (18 .7 ) 2 0 .1 (0 .9 9 ) (17 .4 ) 17 ,5 9 8 .2 (0 .5 2 ) (1.3 ) 2 ,0 9 8 .0 (0 .2 8 ) 1.9 5 ,115 .4 (0 .2 5 ) 8 .0 6 ,6 8 8 .6 (0 .11) 1.9 2 0 ,5 4 8 .1 (0 .18 ) 17 .7 2 4 ,6 3 6 .3 (0 .9 1) 3 .4 3 ,2 0 2 .5 0 .0 0 (5 .1) 1,7 4 4 .2 1.2 2 (1.0 ) F O R EX C h a n g e % Y TD C h a n g e % US D/IDR (0 .2 1) (8 .2 ) EUR/IDR 0 .10 2 .1 J P Y/IDR (0 .16 ) (4 .8 ) S G D/IDR (0 .2 7 ) (4 .2 ) AUD/IDR 0 .0 5 3 .5 G BP /IDR 0 .19 (8 .2 ) P ric e 1 D a y R e tu rn % Y TD C h a n g e % CRUDE O IL (US D)/BARREL 4 5 .2 (4 .14 ) (14 .7 ) CO AL (US D) / MT 5 8 .5 - (2 0 .8 ) NATURAL G AS (US D) / mmBtu 2 .7 1.18 (4 .5 ) G O LD (US D) / O UNCE 1,0 8 6 .8 (0 .8 2 ) (8 .6 ) NICKEL (US D) / MT 10 ,7 4 5 .0 (2 .6 7 ) (2 8 .9 ) TIN (US D) / MT 16 ,3 0 0 .0 0 .7 7 (17 .5 ) CP O (MYR) / MT 2 ,12 0 .0 (0 .19 ) (10 .3 ) RUBBER (J P Y)/KG 18 6 .7 (3 .16 ) (6 .5 ) WHEAT/BUS HEL 4 9 9 .0 (0 .0 5 ) (15 .1) CO RN/BUS HEL 3 6 6 .5 (1.2 1) (7 .2 ) Ke y In d ic e s S TRAITS TIMES KLS E R a te (ID R ) 13 ,5 10 HANG S ENG DO W J O NES S &P 5 0 0 NAS DAQ FTS E NIKKEI C o m m o d itie s J CI LQ 4 5 EIDO IDX 9 ,8 0 5 9 ,8 5 3 2 1,112 14 ,8 2 4 10 9 4 ,8 0 0 .18 4 .5 3 7 4 ,4 18 ID X S ta tis tic s
4,740
4,760
4,780
4,800
4,820
JCI Index
2
•
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) berencana menerbitkan obligasi senilai Rp 5 triliun pada awal tahun depan sebagai salah satu sumber pendanaan. Namun perusahaan masih melihat apakah situasi pasar kondusif untuk aksi perusahaan tersebut. Nantinya, penerbitan obligasi tersebut merupakan bagian dari penawaran umum berkelanjutan (PUB) Rp 12 triliun, dimana sebelumnya telah diterbitkan sebesar Rp 7 triliun pada tahap pertama semester I 2015. Dana hasil obligasi akan digunakan untuk pengembanganusaha dan akuisisi beberapa perusahaan baik domestik maupun internasional. (Neutral) Source: Bisnis
Indonesia
•
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) tengah mengincar dua proyek pembangkit listrik senilai total US$ 3,2 miliar, atau setara Rp 42,8 triliun. Perusahaan akan didukung induk usaha, Banpu PCL, serta opera-tor pembangkit listrik asal Thailand, Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding PCL. Setelah lolos tahapkualifikasi, perusahaan tengah bersiap mengikuti proses bidding dalam tender PLTU berkapasitas 2x1.000
megawatt (MW) pada Oktober mendatang. Sebelumnya, perusahaan sendiri telah mengikuti serangkaian proses tender untuk pembangunan PLTU Jawa 5 berkapasitas 2x600 MW di Jawa Barat. Adapun ekspansi
di bisnis power plant merupakan strategi perusahaan untuk mengantisipasi pelemahan harga batubara
dunia. (Positive) Source: Investor Daily
•
PT Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk (ANTM) mencatat penjualan bersih hingga semester I 2015 sekitar Rp 7,89 triliun, naik signifikan hingga 98% YoY. Hal tersebut didorong oleh peningkatan signifikan pen-jualan emas. Penpen-jualan emas per Juni 2015 perusahaan tercatat Rp 5,65 triliun, berkontribusi 72% terha-dap total penjualan perusahaan. Aterha-dapun volume penjualan emas tercatat meningkat 180% YoY menjadi 10.996 kg. Sementara itu, kontributor lain pendapatan perusahaan yakni feronikel, yang meningkat 13%YoY menjadi Rp 1,97 triliun dengan peningkatan volume sebesar 5% menjadi 9.443 ton. (Positive) Source:
Investor Daily
•
PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk (WIKA) antusias mengembangkan bisnis baru di sektor transportasi. Perusahaan tengah bersiap diri menggarap proyek kereta api cepat Jakarta-Bandung setelah mendapat lisensi untuk pengusahaan sarana dan prasarana perkeretaapian. Manajemen perusahaan menargetkan 30% investasi apabila nantinya diberikan komposisi investasi yakni 40% asing dan 60% domestic. Dengan nilai perkiraan investasi mencapai Rp 50 triliun, artinya perusahaan berencana mencapai jatah investasi senilai Rp 9 triliun. Adapun perusahaan berencana menyiapkan dana untuk proyek tersebut, yakni 70%pinjaman perbankan dan 30% dana PMN. (Neutral) Source: Kontan
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CORPORATE & INDUSTRY NEWS
3
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TRADING VIEW
Tuesday, August 04, 2015
TRADING VIEW Tuesday, August 4, 2015
These recommendations are more based on technical and just for one day trading RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
TICKER RECOMMENDATION PRICE ENTRY EXIT S2 S1 R1 R2 EXPLANATION
AGRICULTURE
AALI Trading Sell 19800 19800 19500 19250 19500 20050 20350 Black spinning top BWPT Buy on Weakness 387 383 390 378 383 390 395 Stoc osc :uptrend LSIP Trading Sell 1320 1320 1300 1280 1300 1350 1380 Black spinning top BANK & FINANCE
BMRI Trading Buy 9700 9700 9850 9500 9600 9850 9950 Macd : reversal BBRI Trading Buy 10450 10450 10600 10150 10300 10600 10750 Macd : uptrend BBNI Trading Buy 4815 4815 4845 4735 4790 4845 4870 White spinning top BBCA Trading Buy 13250 13250 13350 13050 13150 13350 13500 Stoc osc : uptrend CONSUMER GOODS
INDF Buy on Weakness 6000 5925 6100 5850 5925 6100 6200 Long legged doji ICBP Buy on Weakness 12650 12500 12750 12400 12500 12750 12925 Stoc osc : uptrend GGRM Buy on Weakness 49375 49250 49875 49000 49250 49875 50000 White spinning top UNVR Buy on Weakness 38875 38650 39175 38450 38650 39175 39475 Macd : downtrend CPIN Trading Buy 2585 2585 2615 2530 2560 2615 2640 Macd : reversal MAIN Trading Buy 1380 1380 1400 1350 1370 1400 1425 Stoc osc : uptrend BASIC & MISC INDUSTRY
ASII Trading Buy 6700 6700 6775 6550 6625 6775 6850 Macd : golden cross SMGR Buy on Weakness 9850 9775 9950 9700 9775 9950 10125 Black spinning top INTP Buy on Weakness 20050 19950 20200 19650 19950 20200 20350 White spinning top INFRASTRUCTURE
TLKM Buy on Weakness 2920 2890 2940 2850 2890 2940 2970 Stoc osc : uptrend PGAS Buy on Weakness 4000 3950 4040 3900 3950 4040 4065 White spinning top JSMR Buy on Weakness 5650 5625 5725 5575 5625 5725 5825 Gravestone doji TBIG Buy on Weakness 8300 8200 8400 8100 8200 8400 8600 Macd : downtrend
RETAIL
MAPI Trading Buy 4760 4760 4775 4690 4735 4775 4800 Morning star RALS Buy on Weakness 695 685 705 675 685 705 720 Black spinning top ACES Buy on Weakness 630 620 640 600 620 640 660 Rsi : downtrend MPPA Trading Sell 2800 2800 2750 2700 2750 2820 2870 Stoc osc : downtrend MINING
PTBA Trading Sell 5950 5950 5900 5870 5900 6000 6100 Stoc osc : downtrend ADRO Trading Sell 570 570 555 540 555 590 610 Rsi : downtrend ITMG Buy on Weakness 9725 9650 9800 9550 9650 9800 9900 Rsi : downtrend ANTM Buy on Weakness 479 473 483 469 473 483 492 Macd : downtrend
TINS Buy on Weakness 615 605 630 595 605 630 640 Rsi : uptrend
UNTR Buy on Weakness 19900 19650 20200 19500 19650 20200 20500 Stoc osc : uptrend PROPERTY
ASRI Trading Sell 500 500 490 480 490 510 525 Macd : downtrend LPKR Buy on Weakness 1150 1135 1160 1120 1135 1160 1185 Long legged doji CTRA Buy on Weakness 1085 1070 1120 1045 1070 1120 1150 Stoc osc : reversal APLN Buy on Weakness 361 355 368 348 355 368 376 Black spinning top SMRA Trading Buy 1820 1820 1850 1760 1790 1850 1880 Stoc osc : uptrend SSIA Buy on Weakness 795 785 810 775 785 810 825 White spinning top BSDE Trading Buy 1845 1845 1870 1785 1815 1870 1885 Stoc osc : uptrend WIKA Buy on Weakness 2670 2650 2700 2625 2650 2700 2725 White spinning top PTPP Buy on Weakness 3855 3825 3865 3800 3825 3865 3920 Macd : downtrend ADHI Buy on Weakness 2270 2250 2295 2230 2250 2295 2320 Black spinning top
4
Global Equity Indices
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Tuesday, August 04, 2015
MARKET DATA
De s c rip tio n YTD Ch a n g e % 4 - Au g - 15 Fo rwa rd 2 0 14 P / E Ra tio (B e s t Es t. )
LQ45 (9.3) 815 Nikke i 225 17.7 20,547 J CI (8.2) 4,800 FTS E 100 1.9 6,689 AS X 200 5.7 5,717 DJIA (1.3) 17,598 S &P 500 1.9 2,098 S TI (5.1) 3,193 CAC 40 19.8 5,121 S ha ngha i Compos ite 12.0 3,623 DAX 16.7 11,444 KOS P I 5.2 2,016 Ha ng S e ng 3.4 24,411 Euro S toxx 15.5 3,635
De s c rip tio n YTD Ch a n g e % 4 - Au g - 15 De s c rip tio n YTD Ch a n g e % 4 - Au g - 15
AALI (18.4) 19,800 J S MR (19.9) 5,650 ADHI (34.8) 2,270 KLBF (6.6) 1,710 ADRO (45.2) 570 LP KR 12.7 1,150 AKRA 37.7 5,675 LP P F 16.0 17,400 ANTM (55.0) 479 LS IP (30.2) 1,320 AS II (9.8) 6,700 MNCN (18.5) 2,070 AS RI (10.7) 500 MP P A (8.2) 2,800 BBCA 1.0 13,250 P GAS (33.3) 4,000 BBNI (21.1) 4,815 P TBA (52.4) 5,950 BBRI (10.3) 10,450 P TP P 7.8 3,855 BBTN (2.9) 1,170 P WON (19.2) 416 BMRI (10.0) 9,700 S CMA (19.1) 2,830 BMTR (8.4) 1,305 S ILO 20.4 16,500 BS DE 2.2 1,845 S MGR (39.2) 9,850 CP IN (31.6) 2,585 S MRA 19.7 1,820 CTRA (13.2) 1,085 S S MS 18.0 1,965 EXCL (36.7) 3,080 TBIG (14.4) 8,300 GGRM (18.7) 49,375 TLKM 2.5 2,920 ICBP (3.4) 12,650 UNTR 14.7 19,900 INCO (46.9) 1,925 UNVR 20.4 38,875 INDF (11.1) 6,000 WIKA (27.4) 2,670 INTP (19.8) 20,050 WS KT 25.3 1,795 ITMG (36.7) 9,725 Sectors
De s c rip tio n J AKP ROP INDEX
P rope rty (1.9) JAKBIND INDEX
Ba s ic Indus try (8.9) JAKMANU INDEX
Tra de (4.2) JAKFIN INDEX
Fina nc e (3.5) JAKCONS INDEX
Misc e lla ne ous Industry (2.6) JAKMIND INDEX
Cons ume r (3.6) JAKINFR INDEX
Infra s truc ture (3.1) JAKAGRI INDEX
Agric ulture (10.2) JAKMINE INDEX
Mining (13.5)
1- mth Re tu rn % Selected Indonesian Equities
15.2 19.5 15.3 16.3 16.3 15.8 17.7 13.4 16.4 15.0 14.3 11.7 11.8 15.6
5
Economic Indicators
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G lo b a l R e fe re n c e R a te s F O R EX R a te (U S D ) C h a n g e % FED Ra te 0 .2 5 US DIDR 13 ,4 9 5 0 .11 BI Ra te 7 .5 0 US DEUR 0 .9 1 0 .13 ECB Ra te 0 .0 5 US DJ P Y 12 4 0 .0 1 BO J Ra te 0 .10 US DS G D 1.3 8 (0 .14 ) BO E Ra te 0 .5 0 US DAUD 1.3 8 0 .2 9 P BO C Ra te 4 .8 5 US DG BP 0 .6 4 0 .0 6 D e s c rip tio n J u l- 15 J u n - 15
In fla tio n YTD (% ) 1.9 0 0 .9 6 7 .9 0
In fla tio n YO Y (%) 7 .2 6 7 .2 6 1.0 8
In fla tio n MO M (% ) 0 .9 3 0 .5 4 1.4 6
Fo re ig n Re s e rve s (US D b n ) 10 8 .0 3 110 .7 7 8 .4 7
G DP G ro wth Ra te (% ) (0 .18 ) 8 .5 6
G DP An n u a l G ro wth Ra te (% ) 4 .7 1 8 .8 4
D u a l Lis te d P ric e (ID R ) C h a n g e %
TLKM (US ) 2 ,9 6 8 .9 0 0 .0 0 ANTM (G R) 5 0 1.7 8 13 .3 3 % Le n d in g & D e p o s it R a te s INDO G B 15 Y YIELD (% ) J IBO R (IDR) (%) LIBO R (G BP ) (%) S IBO R (US D) (%) INDO G B 5 Y YIELD (%) INDO G B 10 Y YIELD (% ) INDICATOR 2014
APBNP APBN APBN-P
GDP Growth (%, YoY) 5,5 5,8 5,7
Inflation (%, YoY) 5,3 4,4 5,0
Exchange rate (USD/IDR) 11.600 11.900 12.500
3 Months SPN (%) 6.0 6.0 6.2
Indonesian Crude Oil (USD/barrel) 105 105 60
Oil Lifting ( thousands barrel/day) 818 900 825
Gas Lifting (thousands, BOE/day) 1.224 1.248 1.221
Total State Budget (in IDR trillion) 1,635 1,793 1,761
2015
Tuesday, Augu st 04, 2015
MARKET DATA & CORPORATE INFO
State Budget
Rights Issue
Ticker Ratio Price (Rp) Cum Date EX Date Trading
6
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DISCLAIMER
This material is issued by PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, a member of Indonesia Stock Exchanges, represent the opinion of PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, derived its judgment from sources deemed reliable, however, PT Sinarmas Sekuritas and its affiliated cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas or its affiliates may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein or have positions in the securities recommended herein and may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this material. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, its employees and its affiliates, expressly disclaim any and all liability for representation or warranties, expressed or implied, here in or omission there from or for any loss how so ever arising from any use of this material or its contents or otherwise arising in connection there with. Opinion expressed in this material are our present view and are subject to change without no-tice. For further information please contact our number +62 21 392 5550 or fax +62 21 392 2320.
RESEARCH TEAM
ANALYST James Wahjudi Coal and Mining
T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 611
James.wahjudi@sinarmassekuritas.co.id JUNIOR ANALYST
Wilbert
Consumer goods and Retail T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 610 wilbert@sinarmassekuritas.co.id
ANALYST Evan Hadiwidjaja Banking and Cement T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 610 Evan.hadiwidjaja@sinarmassekuritas.co.id TECHNICAL ANALYST Eddy Wijaya T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 159 Eddy.wijaya@sinarmassekuritas.co.id Tuesday, August 04, 2015 Dividend Upcoming IPO
Company Business IPO Price
(Rp) Issued Shares (Mn) Offering Date (2015) Listing Underwriter
Bank Harda Internasional Banking & Finance 115-150 950 4 Aug—6 Aug 12 Aug Lautandhana Securities
Gelombang Seismic Indonesia Trade & Service TBA 150 4 Aug –6 Aug 13 Aug Panca Global Securities
Stock DPS (Rp) Status Cum Date (2015) Ex Date (2015) Recording Payment