POPULATION AND RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION IN NIGERIA BY
NANDE, MATTHEW TERSOO [email protected]
+2348169671716 &
ABDULSALAM, OIZA RAHIMAT [email protected]
+2348137240742
ABSTRACT
There are different reasons that cause rural-urban migration in Nigeria. They are the so-called push and pull factors which can be seen as simultaneous analysis of factors that attract migrants to urban areas. These determinants are split up into economic and non-economic factors for easy understanding. Todaro’s rural urban migration model is adopted here as a theoretical framework to guide the discussion. Although the theory failed to capture non-economic factors in explaining rural-urban migration, the paper addressed such shortcomings. It was discovered that people who migrate are usually the more educated, young and determined. Socio- economic factors, such as better employment and educational opportunities, etc are the main reasons for people to migrate to cities in Nigeria, although insecurity has compounded the picture. The paper recommends that good educational facilities and qualified teachers as well as agro-allied industries must be set-up in rural areas in order to better living conditions of rural dwellers.
Introduction
The dynamic nature of man is ably demonstrated in his ability to move from place to place. This ability marks the fundamental feature of human population. And by consequence, human population is distributed unevenly across global space. Davis [2004] noted that “for the first time the urban population of the earth will outnumber the rural. Indeed given the imprecision of third world censuses, this transition may already have occurred.” He stressed further that “cities have absorbed nearly two-third of the global population explosion since 1950 and are currently growing by million babies and migrants each week”.
The consequences of rapidly increasing population are to retard all development efforts in an underdeveloped country unless accompanied by high rates of capital accumulation, and technological progress. But these counteracting factors are not available and the result is that population explosion leads to declining agricultural productivity, low per capital income, low living standard, mass unemployment, low rate of capital formation, and adverse balance of payments [Jhingan, 2007].
1.0 Conceptual interpretation 1.1 Population
Population is a very central feature of any society, without which there can be no society at all. Dictionary.references.com defines population as “the total number of persons inhabiting a country, city or any district or area”. Over the past 300 years, the population of nearly every major area in the world has increased exponentially, so much so that certain places have instituted incentives to couples who agreed to have fewer children [businessdictionary.com]. That is to say that population is important for growth and development of any society, but over population becomes a menace to same societies as a result of social vices perpetrated by their population.
1.2 Migration
Simply put, migration refers to the movement of people from one place to another for the purpose of establishing permanent or temporary residence [Adebayo and Raheem, 2012]. There are two types of migration: first internal migration, referring to migration within the country, and secondary, international migration, which means the movement from one country to another. The reason for migration can be divided into two main aspects, the so called “push” and “pull” factors.
Fischer [2009] argues that factors and determinants of migration are rather diverse and they can be spilt up in economic and non- economic reasons:
1. Economic push factors such as unemployment and underemployment in rural areas, low wages and no assets as well as lack of land which is sometimes due to inheritance system that split the land among a large number of people, making it less productive.
to housing, education possibilities and health care; furthermore, aspects of agricultural change like modernization of farming, new techniques and machines as well as economic reforms in general cause less demand of labour in the agricultural sector and therefore causes people to search for more job opportunities; additional factors that act as push factors are natural disasters, drought or famine, war and conflict [especially in Africa] that in most of the times affect rural areas by destroying most of their belongings and farm land and therewith their livelihood.
3. Economic pull factors include factors that attract people to move into cities which are mainly the counterparts of the push factors: rural migrants hope for employment and higher wages in the cities caused by a higher demand of labour there in general, due to economic growth.
4. Non-economic pull factors include social factors such as the hope for better health care and education provision or the urban facilities and way of life in general as well as protection from conflict, family reunion and family networks [i.e. it is easier for people to migrate if they have relatives in cities][ Gebhardt et al,2007:29 in Fischer, 2009].
Migration, both internal and international is a common feature of both developing and developed countries. In Nigeria especially, both types of migration continue to increase. Migration is an inevitable part of human existence with a long history. However, its pattern has changed considerably overtime, from the search for space, especially in the middle ages, to that of congestion in large cities [rural-urban migration] in the modem age. Akpomuvie [2012] quoting Otite [2002] identified four types of internal migration: from urban to urban, urban to rural, rural to urban, and rural to rural.
1.3 Rural-Urban Migration
Rural-urban migration is a form of so-called internal migration which means a movement within a country and which stays in contrast to international or intercontinental migration [Fischer, 2009]. This refers to the movement of people from the country side and rural areas respectively into the cities, often the metropolitan cities of a country. Adebayo and Raheem, [2012] quoting Stephens [2002] posited that by 2030 three-fifths of the world population is expected to live in urban areas. This change of residence is often connected with the migration of labour and a career change from primary to second or third sector-not necessarily, though, as it can refer to the migration of people who are not working in agriculture or farming as well.
2.0 Theoretical Framework
Puja Mondal provides a condensed version of Todaro’s theory on rural-urban migration which is adopted here to explain rural urban migration in Nigeria.
Todaro accepts the logistics of Lewis-Fei-Ranis model of rural-urban migration but only with reservations. According to Lewis, this theory may correspond to the historical scenario in the western socio economic milieu but does not explain the trends of rural-urban migration in less developed countries
The Lewis model assumes that there could be faster capital accumulation which could be invested in modern industry causing new jobs in abundance. It implies that there would be labour transfer at the rate proportional to capital accumulation.
Beside, Lewis’ assertion that rural sectors have surplus labour and urban areas have full employment, does not hold true necessarily. Urban areas in less developed countries in particular do not provide full employment. Davis [2004] argued that IMF enforced policies of agricultural deregulation and ‘De-peasantization’ were accelerating the exodus of surplus rural labour to urban slums even as cities ceased to be job machines.
Todaro’s model does not advocate simply the rural –urban wage differentials as the basis of migration as is claimed in all migration theories. According to him, the migrant is much rational and calculative in his decision to shift to a particular city. He also takes into consideration not only the wage differentials but also the probability of getting a job in the urban area. Migration, thus, is determined more by rural-urban differences in expected earnings, rather than in actual earnings
Francis Cherunilam, commenting on Todaro’s migration model, writes that while the model is correct in holding that there is no possibility of full employment in urban areas, it is not correct to assert that the act of migration is always rational and well calculated. Todaro is also wrong in not giving any importance to non-economic factors in the migration process.
Despite the stated shortcomings of the theory, the paper still finds it relevant as a guide in explaining rural-urban migration in Nigeria. However the non-economic factors responsible for rural-urban migration in Nigeria and the non-rational decisions of migrants to shift base which the theory failed to capture are well addressed in the course of the discussion
3.1 Population: A blessing or a curse? An overview
people around the world are living longer lives than even a century earlier, thanks to modern medical achievements. And while agricultural resources are a very real concern as the world’s population grows, the world’s increase in population is responsible for a greater consciousness of the need for additional resource as well as the innovations to produce food at the pace of population growth [Ova, 2013].
The dangers of unrestrained population growth, especially when it is not accompanied by commensurate human capital development and equity in income distribution and economic opportunity are well documented. In his classic book “The Population Bomb” published in 1968, U.S biologist and environmentalist Paul R. Ehrlich likened unchecked population growth to cancer, stating that “a cancer is an uncontrolled multiplication of cells; the population explosion is an uncontrolled multiplication of people” [in Nosegbe, 2012]. The danger here is the risk of population growth outstripping the capacity of the environment to support the populace and the capacity of government to make the necessary investment in infrastructure, housing, healthcare, agriculture and education to ensure that each can live a decent and comfortable life.
In 2011, the world population hit 7billions, with china in all its demographic splendor accounting for a fifth part of the figure. Future projections show that India, another mega nation from Asia, is set to take over from China as the most populous country come 2028. The world population is expected to have crossed 8 billion by then, fueled largely by Asian and African populations as western countries such as Britain and the United States appear to have found a way to effectively control the growth of their populations (Simeon, 2013)
A. Factors Promoting Economic Development.
I. Increase in per capita product: Prof. Kuznets in his study, modern economic Growth has pointed out that substantial rates of population growth in Europe have led to high rates of increase in total product and per capita product.
II. Rise in labour productivity: the rise in the rate of per capita is the result of the rise in labour productivity. It is improvements in the quality of labour which increases productivity per unit of labour.
III. Population Growth leads to Growth of physical capital;- It has been proved by recent researches that the growth of physical capital stocks depends to a considerable extent on human capital formation which is the “process of increasing knowledge, the skills and the capacities of all people of the country”
IV. Population Growth leads to Age of high mass consumption:- Rostow has shown in his stages of economic growth that the development of “leading sector” due to the increase in the effective demand for their products have paved the way for the age of high mass consumption through which almost all developed countries are passing.
V. Population growth as a source of capital formation:- according to Nurkse and Lewis, high population growth can be a source of capital formation in underdeveloped countries. Nurkse points out that underdeveloped countries suffer from disguised unemployment on a mass scale. This surplus labour force can be put to work on capital projects like irrigation, drainage roads, railways, houses, etc
B. Factors Retarding Economic Development.
I. Investment:- Economic development depends upon investment. In UDCs the resources available for investment are limited. Therefore, rapid population growth retards investment needed for higher future consumption.
II. Overuse of Resources:- Rapid population growth tends to overuse the country’s natural resources. Consequently many households continue to live in poverty.
IV. Per Capita Income:- The effect of population growth on per capita income is unfavorable. The growth of population tends to retard the per capita income in three ways:
i. It increases the pressure of population on land;
ii. It leads to rise in costs of consumption goods because of the scarcity of the cooperant factors to increase their supplies
iii. It leads to a decline in the accumulation of capital because with increase in family members, expenses increase. These adverse effect of population growth on per capital income operate more severely if the percentage of children in the total population is high, as is actually the case in all UDCs.
V. Standard of Living:- A rapidly increasing population leads to an increased demand for food products, clothes, houses, etc. But their supplies cannot be increased in the short run due to the lack of cooperant factors like raw materials, skilled labour, capital, etc. Consequently, their costs and prices rise which raise the cost of living of the masses
VI. Agricultural Development:- in UDCs, people mostly live in rural areas. Agriculture is their main occupation. As the number of landless workers increases, their wages fall. This low per capita productivity reduces the propensity to save and invest.
VII. Employment:- a rapidly increasing population plunges the economy into mass unemployment and underemployment. The result is that with the increase in labour force, unemployment and underemployment increases. As the labour force increase in relation to land, capital and other resources, complementary factors available per worker decline.
VIII. Social infrastructure:- Rapidly growing population necessitate large investment in social infrastructure and diverts resources from directly productive assets. Due to the scarcity of resources, it is not possible to provide educational, health, medical, transport and housing facilities to the entire population. There is overcrowding everywhere
number of people in the age- group of 15-50years. The result is that a larger percentage of the total population is in the low age-group of 1-15years. This means that the addition to the lower age-group is larger than in the working age-group. A large percentage of children in the labour force is a heavy burden on the economy
X. Environment:- Scarcity of land due to rapidly increasing population pushes large number of people to ecologically sensitive areas such hillsides and tropical forests. It also leads to overgrazing and cutting of forests for cultivation leading to severe environmental change.
XI. World Economy:- Rapid population growth also affects UDCs in relation to the world economy in a number of ways:- first, rapid population growth tends to increase income disparities between UDCs and developed countries because the per capita incomes decline with growth in number in the former. Second, rapid population growth encourages international migration. (But the developed countries place restrictions on immigration because labour from poor countries adversely affects the wages of native workers and also create social and political tensions). Third, emigration tends to increase wages of workers substantially at home. Fourth, another beneficial effect of this is that emigrants remit large sums of money back home. This increase family income and their living standard at home.
3.2 Population: A blessing or a curse? The Nigerian experience
The issue of Nigeria’s fast – rising population, despite being the topic of public discourse in recent times, still has not received the attention it deserves from appropriate quarters. But population explosion in itself remains a relevant phenomenon to many countries around the world today (Simeon, 2013).
percent per year (Nigerian Tribune, 2015). Of the million strong population, 68million- plus are youths; a fair proportion you would say when considering that 50 per cent of Ugandans are under the age of 15. However, the pace of growth in the coming years is set to follow an even more explosive trend, dictated by an army of virile youths. So it is logical that the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), a U.S- based non-profit organization suggests the Nigerian population would be hitting 400million by 2050 (Simeon,2013).
Nigeria’s population can be regarded as a very powerful tool in the area of business; we are currently witnessing an inflow of foreign investments targeting the country’s huge population. Olusegun Aganga, Minister of Trade and Investment said that “Nigeria with its demographic figure (over 150 million) is a large market with strong workforce and a growing middle income currently standing at 23 percent; it remains the destination to beat” (business Day, 2012). However, this huge population can really be a big problem.
The reason for this is that we need more infrastructure to carter for millions of people, and in a country where the government if found wanting, then the little facilities that are available will be shared by millions of people. We can imagine a class which is built for 30 students holding over 100 students. The same goes for hospitals, prisons and other social service centers
It is no secret that our dependence on petroleum and natural minerals as a nation is legendary. This again is clearly evidenced by the report of the National Bureau of Statistics which indicates that the export of mineral resources made up 84 per cent of Nigeria’s total trade in 2012, while oil accounted for 69.2 per cent (Simeon, 2013).
thereby leading to an increase in the percentage of the active population that is actively unemployed or at least underemployed and quite rightly so, they fear the swelling numbers of jobless of uneducated youths would further raise the entropy level of a country that already contends with the menace of terrorism and tribal wars in the north; and oil theft, piracy and kidnapping in the south.
In the face of a rapidly growing population, the current fiscal model encourages governments at all levels to depend on revenue generated from petroleum sector. The sharing formula, which ensures revenue trickles from the federal government down to the local government and Wards has led to a sort of redundancy. Many States, rely chiefly on the handouts in form of allocation to run recurrent and capital expenditures, hence their economies do not develop at the same rate with the population size.
The country’s rapid population growth, however, does not completely translate to predictions of chaos. For every realist who thinks our resources are fast shrinking and doomsday is calling, there is a balancing group of opposites, who believe we are on the verge of an economic revolution. Simeon (2013) believes we can grow our economy using human capital as a resource. He counts on our numbers not as a weakness but as strength.
4.1 Rural- Urban migration: An overview
Migration processes have been in existence throughout all times and in all regions of the world. While the original triggering in former times had been the search for more favorable conditions and not yet or only sparsely populated living spaces, patterns of migration underwent many changes since industrialization. In Europe, the period in the 18th century was marked
whole different dimension. Population and rates of population growth are by far higher than they had been in Europe which leads to increasing dynamic urbanization but also severe side effects
Fischer (2009) argued that the increasing numbers of people moving toward the large urban areas cause three things to happen:
I. Urban growth which means that towns and cities are spatially expanding; they cover an increasing area of land, mainly because there are not enough housing facilities in the city itself so that new incomers often have to move to shanty towns that are increasing in size and number. Davis (2004) reports that “in Cairo and Phnom Penh, recent urban arrivals squat or rent space on roof-tops; creating slum cities in the air (p.13). Kaplan (1994) corroborated that “in cites in six West African countries, I saw similar young men everywhere-hordes of them. They were like loose molecules in a very unstable social fluid, a fluid that was clearly on the verge of igniting”
II. Urbanization which refers to the fact of a significant increase in the proportion of people living in cities in total population. It is predominantly the process by which towns and cities are formed and become larger as more people begin living and working in central areas. It is predicted that by 2050 about 64% of the developing world and 86% of the developed world will be urbanized. That is equivalent to approximately 3 billion urbanites by 2050, much of which will occur in Africa and Asia (Wikipedia-the free encyclopedia)
the rural areas of origin-money that could contribute to further development of the village of origin [St Dustan’s community school; in Fischer, 2009].
At low levels of urbanization, migration is the prime engine driving city growth as is now the case in much of Africa. As the urban base grows, however, more and more migrants are required to match urban natural increase, and the pattern reverses itself (Keyfitz, 1980, Rogers, 1984; in Adebayo & Raheem, 2012). Therefore, although natural increase is responsible for most urban growth in the Third World, the age- selectivity of migrants (through their contribution to natural increase) as well as regional variations in urbanization and development complicates this picture.
Structural forces that lead to rural- to –urban migration also vary by region. In particular, although some emphasis has been placed on the appeal of cities to potential migrants, considerably more attention has been devoted to the interaction between agrarian structures, rural adversity and rural to-urban migration. In Latin America, rural adversity arises primarily from colonial heritage but also due to the commercialization of agriculture and land speculation as a hedge against inflation (Oberai, 1983). In many regions of Asia, population densities on arable land lead to diminishing returns and excessive subdivision of peasant holdings. Consequently, there is gross under investment and out migration from rural area of most African countries. This is coupled with the generally poor infrastructural base of villages in terms of availability of portable water, electricity and access roads that serve to link villages with their farms and with markets
migration pattern led Zarine (1968:49) quoted in Magubane (1978:183) to conclude that:
These ties determine some aspect of their ideology, organizational level and in the long run, the trend of the workers’ movement. The proletariat’s semi- peasant psychology hampers the development of its class-consciousness, the emergence and growth of its organizations and the dissemination of its ideology
4.2 Rural- urban migration in Nigeria
As Nigeria is predominantly rural, less than a quarter of the 160million live in towns or urban setting. While the trend in Nigeria’s oil economy is characterized by rural exodus, Nigeria’s rural oriented economy with the vast majority of the population expending their labour force in agricultural pursuits, it is nonetheless characterized with migration economy based on the long history of Nigerian urbanization spree [Abbass, 2005].
4.2.1 Trends in Migration
It is therefore useful to set the present migration trend and urbanization in its historical perspective, linking this to the stages and process of economic development strategies in the country. In order to facilitate the movement of cash crops from the hinterland to the coastal parts, a network of transportation system was developed. Railways and roads were constructed to connect the centers of production to the main ports of Lagos. “The railway opened up regions of the country; it facilitated the exchange of manufactured goods between urban and rural areas and stimulated the rapid of expansion of market opportunities” [Ekundare, 1976; in Adebayo and Raheem, 2012]
The following reasons account for why rural dwellers flee the countryside for cities in Nigeria as presented by Adebayo & Raheem, 2012:
1. Displacement following infrastructure implantation: in the same manner as the construction of dams, urban development of which the capital, Abuja, is chief, has similarly displaced or dispossessed numerous village communities. New infrastructure has paradoxical effect; while displacing resident populations, it often attracts migrants who are better placed to take advantage of new economic opportunities. This is most evident in the case of new roads and the transformation of settlements along them, where traders and officials come in and the original residents move out to the surrounding countryside
menace which has reduced North-East to a wilderness and the ceaseless killings by Fulani herdsmen of Southern Kaduna indigenes. The consequences are hardly ever investigated and documented because this could present an image contrary to that considered desirable by government. The victim population moves either to another area or goes to stay with relatives in towns.
3. Political and social cleaves: most West African economies have a high demand for low- paid, unskilled labour; thus, the pattern of migration tends to be of men aged 20-40 leaving a rural farm household, often seasonally, for the city or the plantation. The common pattern in Nigeria is north- south, where farmers take advantage of the long dry season to work in areas of higher rainfall. Magubane (1978) puts it better:
The African migrant labourers were not allowed to break away completely form the “tribal” social environment. Depending on the uncertain demand for their labour in the mines and agro- industries, a great many workers were forced to engage in subsistence agriculture for part of the year and go to find employment in towns, plantations, or mines for another part of the year. The “partial” employment in wage labour hampered the formation of a full-fledged proletariat and caused intensive pauperization in the labour reserve-countryside (p. 183).
4.2.2 Challenges of Rural-urban Migration in Nigeria
the cities. Consequently, food production is greatly reduced and the Nigerian government keeps importing food abroad (Aworemi et al, 2011).
In urban areas, increase in the population of urban dwellers tends to lead to inadequate housing, poor education due to overcrowded schools, inadequate health care facilities, increase in criminal activities, traffic problems, and few employment opportunities. The disenfranchised communities of the urban poor, in addition are vulnerable to sudden outbursts of state violence like the infamous 1990 bulldozing of the Maroko beach slum in Lagos (an eye sore for the neighbouring community of Victoria Island, a fortress for the rich)(Davis, 2004:17).
Kaplan (1994) also contends that:
Loose family or extended family (i.e polygamy) structures are largely responsible for the world’s highest birth rates and the explosion of the HIV virus on the African continent. Like the communalism and animism, they provide a weak shield against the corrosive social effects of life in cities. In those cities, African culture is being redefined while desertification and deforestation also tied to overpopulation- drive more and more African peasants out of countryside.
and be invited for food. When young-men find out their relations cannot put them up, they become lost. They join other migrants and slip gradually in to the criminal process.
4.2.3 The Way forward
Functional amenities such as pipe borne water, electricity, recreational facilities should be provided in the rural areas; good educational facilities and qualified teachers should be made available in the rural areas; agro-allied industries must be set up in the rural areas in order to provide job opportunities for rural dwellers so that migration to urban centers in search of jobs will become less attractive. Although such services goes beyond mere welfare functions of making educational, health and other social amenities easily accessible to people living in rural areas. It includes in particular the function of stimulating increased rural productivity through creating a constantly expanding market for agricultural products and including farmers to greater productive effort through making easily available to them a wide range of consumer goods (Mabogunje, 1974).
Agricultural inputs and farming technology such as mechanization should be introduced to the rural people to improve their production. Access roads should be constructed to link rural communities with markets and credit facilities also made available with relaxed terms and conditions.
Good governance must be fully entrenched in the country in order to arouse the faith of the people both in rural and urban centers that the government is capable of bettering their collective lots.
Finally incentives should be given to couple who agreed to have fewer children as a way of discouraging polygamy and controlling birth rates in the country.
Conclusion
Despite the rapid growth in the urbanization process, Nigeria is predominantly a rural environment. Nigeria’s attainment of flag independence in 1960 has, within more than five decades, attempted varied strategies for rural development which none has been successful. Rural society over time and within such strategies has continued to be neglected and ignored. The chronic and alarming circumstances and influences surrounding the rural Nigeria present a picturesque of threats of future human settlement. The nature of the rural condition Vis-a-Vis the abundant resources is thus a paradox.
Davis (2004) adds that “as a result, the twentieth century became an age, not of urban revolution as classical Marxism had imagined, but of epochal rural uprisings and peasant based wars of national liberation”. He further submitted that:
Instead of being a focus for growth and prosperity, the cities have become a dumping ground for a surplus population working in unskilled, unprotected and low-wage informal service industries and trade. In contrast, the informal sector of the economy, along with general social inequality, has dramatically expanded.
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