Previous Day:
Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Jumat (3/7), IHSG
men-guat sebanyak 38,13 poin (0,77%) ke level 4982,91. Ada
sebanyak 157 saham yang naik, 107 saham yang turun, dan
107 saham yang stagnan. LQ45 naik 8,13 poin (0,96%) ke
level 857,04. Sektor-sektor di zona hijau adalah sektor
con-sumer goods naik 2,05%, sektor perdagangan menguat
1,42% dan sektor konstruksi naik 1,39%. Sektor di zona
merah adalah sektor aneka industri turun 0,17%. Total
perdagangan sebanyak Rp 4,159 triliun. Foreign net buy
sebesar Rp 163,76 miliar. Indeks Nikkei naik 0,08%. Indeks
Strait times melonjak 0,35%. Indeks Hang Seng turun
0,83%. Indeks komposit Shanghai naik 0,35%.
Today’s Market:
Secara teknikal indeks hari Senin (6/7) diperkirakan
ber-gerak menguat di kisaran level 4950-5013. Fluktuasi nilai
tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar AS turut memberikan
senti-men terhadap indeks.
Top Technical
Buys
:
INDF, SCMA, ADHI, BBNI
Sinarmas Investment Research/+6221 3925550/[email protected]
UNDERVALUED STOCKS 2015:
ROTI 1,430
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
M ond ay, Ju ly 06, 2015
DAILY RESEARCH
C lo s in g J CI Tra n s a c tio n Va lu e (Rp tn ) Tra n s a c tio n Vo lu me (mn s h a re s ) Fo re ig n Ne t Bu y (S e ll) (Rp b n ) 16 3 .7 6 Fo re ig n Ne t Bu y (S e ll) YTD (Rp tn ) 4 .3 1 a s p e rc e n ta g e o f la s t ye a r's (0 .9 2 )To ta l Ma rke t Ca p ita liza tio n (Rp tn ) 4 ,7 6 6 .2 9
Clo s in g 1 Da y Re tu rn % YTD Ch a n g e % 4 ,9 8 2 .9 0 .7 7 (4 .7 ) 8 5 7 .0 0 .9 6 (4 .6 ) 2 3 .7 3 2 .0 2 (13 .5 ) 2 1.6 1.8 9 (11.1) 17 ,7 3 0 .1 (0 .16 ) (0 .5 ) 2 ,0 7 6 .8 (0 .0 3 ) 0 .9 5 ,0 0 9 .2 (0 .0 8 ) 5 .8 6 ,5 8 5 .8 (0 .6 7 ) 0 .3 2 0 ,5 3 9 .8 0 .0 8 16 .2 2 6 ,2 8 2 .3 (0 .8 3 ) 10 .4 3 ,3 2 7 .8 0 .0 0 (0 .7 ) 1,7 3 4 .2 0 .0 2 (1.5 ) F O REX Ch a n g e % YTD Ch a n g e % US D/IDR (0 .13 ) (7 .2 ) EUR/IDR 0 .11 2 .4 J P Y/IDR 0 .2 5 (4 .9 ) S GD/IDR 0 .15 (5 .1) AUD/IDR (0 .9 7 ) 1.3 GBP /IDR 0 .0 2 (7 .1) P ric e 1 Da y Re tu rn % YTD Ch a n g e % CRUDE OIL (US D)/BARREL 5 6 .9 (0 .0 5 ) 3 .7 COAL (US D) / MT 5 7 .8 NA (15 .8 ) NATURAL GAS (US D) / mmBtu 2 .8 1.4 0 (4 .0 )
GOLD (US D) / OUNCE 1,16 8 .5 0 .2 0 (1.1)
NICKEL (US D) / MT 12 ,0 0 0 .0 (1.6 4 ) (2 1.9 ) TIN (US D) / MT 14 ,3 5 0 .0 (0 .3 5 ) (2 8 .4 ) CP O (MYR) / MT 2 ,2 5 9 .0 (0 .13 ) (1.2 ) RUBBER (J P Y)/KG 2 0 5 .3 (0 .9 6 ) 3 .5 WHEAT/BUS HEL 5 8 5 .8 (0 .3 0 ) (2 .7 ) CORN/BUS HEL 4 19 .8 1.4 5 4 .9 Ke y In d ic e s S TRAITS TIMES KLS E Ra te (ID R) 13 ,3 2 0 HANG S ENG DOW J ONES S &P 5 0 0 NAS DAQ FTS E NIKKEI Co mmo d itie s J CI LQ 4 5 EIDO IDX 9 ,8 7 7 10 ,0 4 5 2 0 ,8 14 14 ,7 9 1 10 8 4 ,9 8 2 .9 1 4 .15 9 6 ,0 5 1
IDX S ta tis tic s
4,930
4,940
4,950
4,960
4,970
4,980
4,990
5,000
8 A M 9 A M 9 A M 9 A M 1 0 A M 1 0 A M 1 0 A M 1 0 A M 1 1 A M 1 1 A M 1 1 A M 1 1 A M 1 2 P M 1 2 P M 1 P M 1 P M 2 P M 2 P M 2 P M 3 P M 3 P M 3 P M 3 P M 4 P M 4 P MJCI Index
2
•
Bank Indonesia (BI) melonggarkan batas atas LFR menjadi 94%. Peraturan ini diharapkan mampu
mendorong penyaluran kredit terutama ke sektor produktif untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi.
BI menerbitkan aturan tentang kebijakan giro wajib minimum (GWM) yang mengikutsertakan surat
ber-harga masuk ke dalam perhitungan loan to deposit ratio (LDR) menjadi loan to funding ratio (LFR). Selain
itu juga BI memperlonggar batas atas LFR hingga menjadi 94% dibandingkan dengan sebelumnya 92%
bagi bank yang sudah memenuhi pencapaian tertentu kredit usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah (UMKM)
dengan kualitas kredit yang baik. Source: Indonesia Finance Today
•
PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) memperoleh pesanan 51 unit bus gandeng bus Scania senilai Rp 226
miliar. Menurut manajemen perusahaan, bus tersebut telah dipesan oleh salah satu perusahaan otobus
(PO) di Jakarta. Sementara itu, dari jumlah pesanan 51 unit bus tersebut, sebanyak 20 unit sudah
dilaku-kan serah terima pada semester I dan 30 unit sisanya adilaku-kan dating pada semester II nanti. (Neutral)
Source: Indonesia Finance Today
•
PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk (SSIA) merevisi target global bond. Perusahaan mengkaji pengurangan
jumlah obligasi global yang semula direncanakan mencapai US$ 200 juta. Kondisi ekonomi yang tidak
me-nentu terutama ekonomi global dengan adanya dampak Yunani mempengaruhi penerbitan obligasi global
perusahaan. Perusahaan juga mencari alternative dariperbankan. (Neutral) Source: Investor Daily
•
Kredit Tumbuh 2,29% Year to Date. Bank Indonesia mencatat outstanding penyaluran kredit perbankan
mencapai Rp 3.792,8 triliun hingga Mei 2015, tumbuh 10,3% YoY. Sedangkan selama Januari hingga Mei
2015 pertumbuhan kredit hanya 2,29%. BI dan OJK sendiri memproyeksikan pertumbuhan kredit 2015
pada kisaran 11 – 15% setelah mayoritas bank, terutama bank-bank besar mengoreksi target pertumbuhan
kredit. Pertumbuhan kredit hingga Mei 2015 terutama didorong meningkatnya kredit modal kerja (KMK)
yang tumbuh 10,1% mencapai Rp 1.785,4 triliun lebih tinggi dari bulan sebelumnya yakni 8,9%. Sedangkan
kredit investasi (KI) tumbuh 11% mencapai Rp 932 triliun, melambat dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya
yakni 11,2%. (Neutral) Source: Investor Daily
•
PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) hingga akhir semester I 2015 baru merealisasikan 50% ekspor nikel ke
Jepang. Sebelumnya perusahaan menargetkan mampu mengekspor 82.500 ton, naik 4,43% dibandingkan
realisasi 2014 yaitu 79.000 ton. Perusahaan tercatat mengekspor nikel dalam matte kepada Sumitomo
Metal Mining Co Ltd. Nikel, diproduksi dari tambang Sorowako, Sulawesi Selatan. Selain itu, perusahaan
juga bergabung dalam joint venture (JV) dengan Sumitomo untuk membangun smelter di Pomalaa,
Kabu-paten Kolaka, Sulawesi Tenggara. (Neutral) Source: Investor Daily
•
PT Semen Baturaja Tbk (SMBR) membukukan volume penjualan sebanyak 666.176 ton selama semester
I 2015 atau meningkat 25,6% YoY. Kinerja operasional perusahaan terdorong oleh penjualan Juni 2015
yang mencapai 132.968 ton, naik 32,6% YoY. Hal tersebut disebabkan mulai berjalannya beberapa proyek
di Sumatera Selatan. Meskipun begitu, angka ini masih 38% dari total target perusahaan tahun ini yakni
1,75 ton. Perusahaan tetap optimistis dengan target tersebut mengingat masih ada pembangunan dua
proyek besar yakni jalan tol Trans Sumatera dan infrastruktur menjelang Asian Games di Palembang.
(Positive) Source: Investor Daily
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
CORPORATE & INDUSTRY NEWS
M onday, July 06, 2015
3
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
TRADING VIEW
M onday, July 06, 2015
TRADING VIEW Monday, July 06, 2015
These recommendations are more based on technical and just for one day trading
RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
TICKER RECOMMENDATION PRICE ENTRY EXIT S2 S1 R1 R2 EXPLANATION AGRICULTURE
AALI Trading Buy 25500 25500 25675 24800 25225 25675 25950 White spinning top BWPT Buy on Weakness 440 435 445 430 435 445 460 Doji
LSIP Trading Buy 1660 1660 1670 1610 1640 1670 1690 Macd : golden cross BANK & FINANCE
BMRI Trading Buy 10175 10175 10250 10050 10125 10250 10325 Rsi : reversal BBRI Buy on Weakness 10825 10700 10950 10650 10700 10950 11050 Rsi : downtrend BBNI Trading Buy 5625 5625 5700 5400 5500 5700 5800 White spinning top BBCA Buy on Weakness 13625 13550 13700 13450 13550 13700 13850 Stoc osc : uptrend CONSUMER GOODS
INDF Trading Buy 6725 6725 6825 6550 6650 6825 6900 Stoc osc : uptrend ICBP Trading Buy 12575 12575 12400 12200 12400 12650 12750 Macd : reversal GGRM Trading Buy 47475 47475 47800 47100 47350 47800 48050 Macd : uptrend UNVR Trading Buy 41375 41375 41750 40650 41100 41750 42100 Macd : golden cross CPIN Trading Buy 2885 2885 2920 2825 2860 2920 2950 Macd : golden cross MAIN Buy on Weakness 1740 1720 1770 1700 1720 1770 1800 Inverted hammer BASIC & MISC INDUSTRY
ASII Buy on Weakness 7050 7000 7125 6950 7000 7125 7200 Stoc osc : downtrend SMGR Buy on Weakness 12250 12150 12350 12050 12150 12350 12450 Rsi : downtrend INTP Buy on Weakness 21750 21600 21900 21450 21600 21900 22100 Black spinning top INFRASTRUCTURE
TLKM Buy on Weakness 2930 2910 2940 2880 2910 2940 2960 Rsi : neutral PGAS Buy on Weakness 4280 4260 4320 4240 4260 4320 4350 Rsi : uptrend JSMR Trading Buy 6000 6000 6125 5700 5850 6125 6250 White spinning top TBIG Buy on Weakness 8975 8900 9050 8800 8900 9050 9150 Rsi : uptrend
RETAIL
MAPI Buy on Weakness 5400 5300 5450 5200 5350 5450 5550 Rsi : reversal RALS Buy on Weakness 690 670 700 660 670 700 715 White spinning top ACES Buy on Weakness 635 625 645 615 625 645 660 Doji
MPPA Buy on Weakness 3100 3085 3125 3070 3085 3125 3165 Rsi : neutral MINING
PTBA Buy on Weakness 8275 8225 8325 8150 8225 8325 8400 Macd : downtrend ADRO Buy on Weakness 760 750 775 735 750 775 785 Doji
ITMG Trading Buy 13150 13150 13275 12850 12925 13275 13400 Stoc ocs : uptrend ANTM Buy on Weakness 675 665 685 650 665 685 700 Rsi : neutral TINS Trading Sell 690 690 700 670 680 700 715 Stoc osc : downtrend UNTR Buy on Weakness 19850 19700 20050 19600 19700 20050 20300 Rsi : uptrend PROPERTY
ASRI Buy on Weakness 575 560 580 550 560 580 600 White spinning top LPKR Trading Buy 1205 1205 1225 1180 1195 1225 1240 Rsi : uptrend CTRA Trading Buy 1290 1290 1310 1245 1270 1310 1325 Macd : reversal APLN Buy on Weakness 385 375 390 365 375 390 410 Doji
SMRA Trading Buy 1700 1700 1725 1645 1685 1725 1740 White spinning top SSIA Buy on Weakness 995 980 1010 965 980 1010 1025 White spinning top BSDE Trading Buy 1775 1775 1800 1740 1760 1800 1820 Morning star WIKA Trading Buy 2920 2920 2950 2870 2910 2950 2970 White spinning top PTPP Trading Buy 3725 3725 3745 3670 3710 3745 3765 White spinning top ADHI Trading Buy 2240 2240 2270 2200 2220 2270 2310 Stoc osc : uptrend
4
Global Equity Indices
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
M onday, July 06, 2015
MARKET DATA
De s c rip tio n YTD Ch a n g e % 6 - Ju l- 15 Fo rwa rd 2 0 14 P / E Ra tio (B e s t Es t. )
LQ45 (4.6) 857 Nikke i 225 16.2 20,270 JCI (4.7) 4,983 FTS E 100 0.3 6,586 AS X 200 0.7 5,450 DJIA (0.5) 17,730 S &P 500 0.9 2,077 S TI (0.7) 3,343 CAC 40 12.5 4,808 S ha ngha i Composite 14.0 3,687 DAX 12.8 11,058 KOS P I 8.7 2,081 Ha ng S e ng 10.4 26,064 Euro S toxx 9.4 3,442
De s c rip tio n YTD Ch a n g e % 6 - Ju l- 15 De s c rip tio n YTD Ch a n g e % 6 - Ju l- 15
AALI 5.2 25,500 J S MR (14.9) 6,000 ADHI (35.6) 2,240 KLBF (7.9) 1,685 ADRO (26.9) 760 LP KR 18.1 1,205 AKRA 37.1 5,650 LP P F 17.8 17,675 ANTM (36.6) 675 LS IP (12.2) 1,660 AS II (5.1) 7,050 MNCN (24.8) 1,910 AS RI 2.7 575 MP P A 1.6 3,100 BBCA 3.8 13,625 P GAS (28.7) 4,280 BBNI (7.8) 5,625 P TBA (33.8) 8,275 BBRI (7.1) 10,825 P TP P 4.2 3,725 BBTN 0.8 1,215 P WON (17.1) 427 BMRI (5.6) 10,175 S CMA (14.6) 2,990 BMTR (17.5) 1,175 S ILO 6.4 14,575 BS DE (1.7) 1,775 S MGR (24.4) 12,250 CP IN (23.7) 2,885 S MRA 11.8 1,700 CTRA 3.2 1,290 S S MS 11.7 1,860 EXCL (31.8) 3,320 TBIG (7.5) 8,975 GGRM (21.8) 47,475 TLKM 2.8 2,930 ICBP (4.0) 12,575 UNTR 14.4 19,850 INCO (25.7) 2,695 UNVR 28.1 41,375 INDF (0.4) 6,725 WIKA (20.7) 2,920 INTP (13.0) 21,750 WS KT 16.9 1,675 ITMG (14.5) 13,150
Sectors
De s c rip tio n J AKP ROP INDEX
P rope rty (1.6)
JAKBIND INDEX
Ba s ic Indus try (3.9)
JAKMANU INDEX
Tra de (1.7)
JAKFIN INDEX
Fina nc e (2.9)
JAKCONS INDEX
Misc e lla ne ous Indus try (1.8)
JAKMIND INDEX
Cons ume r 0.3
JAKINFR INDEX
Infra s truc ture (1.0)JAKAGRI INDEX
Agric ulture (5.8)
JAKMINE INDEX
Mining (5.6)
1- mth Re tu rn %
Selected Indonesian Equities
15.8 19.2 15.8 15.8 15.4 15.7 17.5 13.8 15.5 15.2 13.8 12.4 12.4 14.8
5
Economic Indicators
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
G lo b a l Re fe re n c e Ra te s FO REX Ra te (US D) Ch a n g e % FED Ra te 0 .2 5 US DIDR 13 ,3 5 2 (0 .2 4 ) BI Ra te 7 .5 0 US DEUR 0 .9 1 0 .7 3 ECB Ra te 0 .0 5 US DJ P Y 12 2 0 .2 4 BOJ Ra te 0 .10 US DS GD 1.3 5 (0 .4 0 ) BOE Ra te 0 .5 0 US DAUD 1.3 3 0 .2 6 P BOC Ra te 4 .8 5 US DGBP 0 .6 4 0 .11 De s c rip tio n J u n - 15 Ma y - 15
In fla tio n YTD (%) 0 .9 6 0 .4 2 7 .9 0 In fla tio n YOY (%) 7 .2 6 7 .15 1.0 4 In fla tio n MOM (%) 0 .5 4 0 .5 0 1.4 6 Fo re ig n Re s e rve s (US D b n ) 110 .8 0 110 .8 7 8 .17 GDP Gro wth Ra te (%) (0 .18 ) 8 .2 4 GDP An n u a l Gro wth Ra te (%) 4 .7 1 8 .3 8
Du a l Lis te d P ric e (IDR) Ch a n g e %
TLKM (US ) 2 ,7 9 0 .5 7 0 .0 0 ANTM (GR) 5 2 9 .9 0 0 .0 0 % Le n d in g & De p o s it Ra te s INDOGB 15 Y YIELD (%) J IBOR (IDR) (%) LIBOR (GBP ) (%) S IBOR (US D) (%) INDOGB 5 Y YIELD (%) INDOGB 10 Y YIELD (%) INDICATOR 2014
APBNP APBN APBN-P
GDP Growth (%, YoY) 5,5 5,8 5,7
Inflation (%, YoY) 5,3 4,4 5,0
Exchange rate (USD/IDR) 11.600 11.900 12.500
3 Months SPN (%) 6.0 6.0 6.2
Indonesian Crude Oil (USD/barrel) 105 105 60
Oil Lifting ( thousands barrel/day) 818 900 825
Gas Lifting (thousands, BOE/day) 1.224 1.248 1.221
Total State Budget (in IDR trillion) 1,635 1,793 1,761
2015
M onday, July 06, 2015
MARKET DATA & CORPORATE INFO
State Budget
Rights Issue
Ticker Ratio Price (Rp) Cum Date EX Date Trading
AGRO 4:3 100 19 June 25 June 2 July — 8 July 2015
ADHI 100000:76190 2000-2700 TBA TBA TBA
BIPP 100:54 140 2 July 3 July 9 July—22 July
6
http://www.sinarmassekuritas.co.id
DISCLAIMER
This material is issued by PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, a member of Indonesia Stock Exchanges, represent the opinion of PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, derived its judgment from sources deemed reliable, however, PT Sinarmas Sekuritas and its affiliated cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas or its affiliates may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein or have positions in the securities recommended herein and may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this material. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, its employees and its affiliates, expressly disclaim any and all liability for representation or warranties, expressed or implied, here in or omission there from or for any loss how so ever arising from any use of this material or its contents or otherwise arising in connection there with. Opinion expressed in this material are our present view and are subject to change without no-tice. For further information please contact our number +62 21 392 5550 or fax +62 21 392 2320.
RESEARCH TEAM
ANALYST James Wahjudi Coal and Mining
T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 611
[email protected] JUNIOR ANALYST
Wilbert
Consumer goods and Retail T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 610 [email protected]
ANALYST Evan Hadiwidjaja Banking and Cement T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 610 [email protected] TECHNICAL ANALYST Eddy Wijaya T: +62 21 3925550 Ext: 159 [email protected]
M onday, July 06, 2015
Dividend
Upcoming IPO
Company Business IPO Price
(Rp) Issued Shares (Mn) Offering Date (2015) Listing Underwriter
Anabatic Technologies Trade & Services 650-800 642.85 29 June-1 July 6 July 2015 Bahana Securities Binakarya Jaya Abadi Property & Real
Estate
900-1300 238.15 29 June-1 July 8 July 2015 RHB OSK Securities Garuda Metalindo Manufacture &
Industries
580-800 468.75 29 June-30 June 7 july 2015 RHB OSK Securities
Stock DPS (Rp) Status Cum Date (2015) Ex Date (2015) Recording Payment
SAME 7 CASH 2 July 3 July 7 July 29 July
PANR 6.07 CASH 2 July 3 July 7 July 29 July
INKP 25 CASH 2 July 3 July 7 July 29 July
TKIM 10 CASH 2 July 3 July 7 July 29 July
AKPI 80 CASH 2 July 3 July 7 July 29 July
RDTX 85 CASH 3 July 6 July 8 July 30 July
TMAS 17.81 CASH 3 July 6 July 8 July 30 July
BRAM 100 CASH 2 July 3 July 7 July 29 July
PWON 4.50 CASH 2 July 3 July 7 July 29 July
GGRM 800 CASH 3 July 6 July 8 July 30 July
KIAS 1.55 CASH 3 July 6 July 8 July 30 July
BBNP 14 CASH 3 July 6 July 8 July 30 July
