This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
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Price : Rp265
Target Price: Rp850
Positive Result, Despite Huge Forex Loss
• Net profit rose by 83.6% YoY
.
CPRO membukukan pendapatan Rp6,091 miliar
(+24.4%) di FY07 dengan perolehan laba bersih sebesar Rp358 miliar (+83.6%), lebih
tinggi dari estimasi kami yang sebesar Rp5,725 miliar dan Rp313 miliar. Penjualan
yang lebih tinggi dari estimasi disebabkan oleh lebih tingginya volume penjualan frozen
shrimp FY07 CPRO dibandingkan proyeksi kami, 36,221 MT vs estimasi 34,454 MT.
• Higher Margin in FY07.
Gross margin naik menjadi 18.4% dari 16.6%, diakibatkan
oleh peningkatan kontribusi dari value added product yang memiliki margin lebih tinggi
dibandingkan produk konvensional. Sementara program efisiensi biaya energi yang
mulai berjalan tahun ini berpotensi meningkatkan gross margin CPRO di FY08-FY09
menjadi 24.5%-26.5% vs proyeksi awal tanpa efisiensi energi sebesar 21.6%-24.1% di
FY08-FY09.
• Dipasena Revitalization: In line progress.
Hingga Desember 2007 CPRO telah
merevitalisasi 4,709 tambak (100%) milik PT Wahyu Mandira (ex Dipasena), sehingga
total tambak beroperasi mencapai 8,565 tambak. CPRO berencana merevitalisasi lagi
4,839 tambak ex Dipasena tahun ini, sehingga total tambak di FY08 akan mencapai
13,404 tambak. Kami mengekspektasikan produksi frozen shrimp akan mencapai
90,185 MT di FY07 (+149% YoY), dengan pendapatan CPRO sebesar Rp 8,348 miliar
(+37.1% YoY).
• Traded at far below its fair value, MAINTAIN BUY.
CPRO saat ini ditransaksikan
pada P/E’08-09 6.7-4.1x dan EV/EBITDA’08-09 5.1-3.7x, lebih rendah dari harga
konversi Exchangeable bond di Rp400/saham. Kami menilai harga pasar CPRO saat ini
tidak merefleksikan fundamental dari CPRO + Dipasena yang berdasarkan valuasi DCF
adalah sebesar Rp848/saham. Concern kami atas CPRO adalah exposure yang besar
terhadap fluktuasi US dollar pada sisi kewajiban, CPRO membukukan forex loss Rp180
miliar di FY07 vs forex gain Rp21 miliar di FY06. Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi
untuk
BUY
CPRO dengan target Rp850/saham.
MAINTAIN BUY
Forecast and Valuation
Y/E Dec (Rpbn)
06A 07A
08F
09F
Sales
5,035 6,091 8,348 10,872
EBITDA
392
600
1,227
1,919
Net Profit
210
313
720
1,196
Basic EPS (Rp)
20
17
39
65
Basic EPS Growth (%)
5%
-15%
130%
66%
Fully diluted EPS (Rp)
20
13
31
51
DPS
- 3 6
10
BV per share (Rp)
117 84
147
199
EV/EBITDA (x)
8.4
10.5 6.6
3.6
P/E Ratio (x)
13.3
17.7 6.7
4.1
P/BV Ratio (x)
2.3 3.2 1.8
1.3
JCI Index :2,393.3
Share issued (mn)18,315.84
Market Cap. (bn)Rp4,888.95
12 Mth High/LowRp770/183
Avg Daily Vol
71,761,074
Free Float (%)27.2%
Nominal ValueRp100
Book value/share ‘08147
Analyst:
Bimo Haryo Pamungkas (021)8370-1608 #144 [email protected]
Bimo Haryo Pamungkas
(021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
2
Figure 1. Sales breakdown: moderate growth
Source: Company
Figure 2. Sales Volume : growth in all segment was due to capacity expansion
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
3
Figure 3. CPRO- FY07 Results
US$mn FY07
FY06
YoY
Chg (%)
Revenue
6,091 4,898 +24.4
Gross Profit
1,118
815
+37.2
Opr Profit
478 358
+33.5
EBITDA
600 392
+53.1
Net Income
358 195
+83.8
EPS (Rp)
20 18
+11.1
Gross Margin (%)
18.4 16.6
Opr Margin (%)
7.8 7.3
Net Margin (%)
5.9 4.0
Valuation
PV of Cash Flow (Rpbn)
3,923
PV of Terminal Value (Rpbn)
12,602
Net Debt (net cash)
997
Equity Value (Rpbn)
15,528
Average Shares (bn)
18.32
DCF Equity Value/share
848
Assumption (%)
Risk Free Rate (%)
9.0%
Market Risk Premium (%)
6.0%
Bimo Haryo Pamungkas
(021)8370-1608 Ext 144
[email protected]
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
4
CPRO
Consumer – Food
Profit and Loss Statement
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
06A
07A
08E
09F
Revenue 4,898
5,725
8,348 10,872
Cost of good sold
4,083 4,973 6,543 8,248
Gross profit
815 1,118 1,805 2,624
Operating expenses
457
550
601
733
Operating profit
358
478
1,204
1,892
EBITDA
442
600
1,227
1,919
Other expenses (inc)
82
53
158
157
Pretax profit
276
428
1,045
1,735
Net profit
195
358
720
1,196
Balance Sheet
Yr-end Dec (Rpbn)
06A 07A
08E
09F
Cash & ST Investment
946
335 1,046 1,024
Account Receivable
781 2,242 1,246 1,623
Inventories
659 1,170 928 1,208
Others
131 307 134 145
Total Current Assets
2,517 4,053
3,354
3,999
Fixed Assets
1,023 3,358 2,284 2,696
Other Assets
380 384 995 992
Total Assets
3,919 7,794
6,633
7,687
Short Term Loans
275 540 250 250
Account Payable
243 704 317 386
CMLTD
63 94 23 10
Others
73 90 120 147
Current Liabilities
654 1,429
709
792
LT Debt
1,882 3,012 2,935 2,925
Other LT Liabilities
147 1,814 286 311
Non-current Liabilities
2,028 4,826
3,221
3,236
Minority Interest
8
9
8
8
Total Liabilities
2,682 6,254
3,930
4,028
Total Equity
1,230 1,531
2,695
3,651
Company Background
CPRO merupakan salah satu perusahaan
aquaculture terbesar di dunia dan juga
merupakan salah satu pemimpin pasar di
Indonesia.
Perseroan menghasilkan produk berupa udang
beku, benur, pakan udang, pakan ikan dan pakan
ternak, di mana lebih dari 98% produk udang
beku diekspor ke AS, Eropa dan, Jepang.
Saat ini CPRO memiliki total 3,856 tambak
dengan kapasitas produksi 74,400 MT dan akan
meningkat mencapai 6,331 tambak di 2009.
Shareholding Structure
PT Surya Hidup Satwa
:
37.9%
Red Dragon
:
24.0%
Regent Central International
:
9.6%
Charm Easy International
:
10.9%
Estimated Free Float
:
17.6%
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
