Fixed Income Daily Notes
Global Market Update
At Friday, October 12 2018, yield of US 10-years moved upward to 3.16% after profit taking action from US investors. On the other hand, majority of global benchmark bond yield moved upward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German Bunds which fell to 1.63% and 0.50%, respectively.
Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada Jum’at, 12 Oktober, ditutup naik ke level 3,16% setelah investor AS mulai mengambil untung atas penurunan yield dalam 1 minggu terakhir. Berkebalikan dengan hal tersebut, mayoritas yield acuan global ditutup cenderung turun, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bunds yang turun ke level 1,63% dan 0,50%.
Domestic Market Update
Government will issue IDR 4 trillion of Islamic government securities (SBSN) or Sukuk tomorrow, October 16. There are 6 auctioned SBSN; SPN-S 03042019 (Reopening), SPN-S 03072019 (Reopening), PBS014 (Reopening), PBS019 (Reopening), PBS017 (Reopening), and PBS012 (Reopening).
Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are likely to weaken as negative sentiment from Indonesia Balance of Trade, which projected to be deficit again. Rupiah will be ranging from IDR 15,139 - 15,237 and yield of 10-years bench-mark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from 8.71% - 8.82%.
Pada hari Selasa, 16 Oktober 2018, pemerintah akan mengadakan lelang Surat Berharga Syariah Negara (SBSN) atau Sukuk dengan target Rp 4 triliun. Adapun seri SBSN yang akan dilelang ialah SPN-S 03042019 (Reopening), SPN-S 03072019 (Reopening), PBS014 (Reopening), PBS019 (Reopening), PBS017 (Reopening), dan PBS012 (Reopening).
Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah yang didorong oleh sentimen negatif akibat perkiraan neraca perdagangan Indonesia yang kembali mengalami defisit. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp 15.139 – Rp 15.237, sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 8,71% - 8,82%. 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 15 20 30 Y ie ld (% ) Maturities (Year)
12-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)
Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
Maturities (Year) 12-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)
01 7.27 7.28 7.32 7.62 02 7.62 7.62 7.67 7.88 03 8.21 8.22 8.06 8.19 04 8.39 8.32 8.13 8.28 05 8.50 8.40 8.24 8.44 06 8.67 8.64 8.27 8.51 07 8.86 8.79 8.47 8.85 08 8.81 8.46 8.30 8.75 09 8.84 8.77 8.49 8.73 10 8.76 8.71 8.38 8.57 15 8.91 8.80 8.52 8.66 20 9.16 9.09 8.82 9.09 30 9.20 9.19 9.13 9.14 Source: Bloomberg
Volume Volume (IDR bn) (IDR bn) FR0077 97.65 8.66 2356 BAFI02B idAA 100.35 6.46 243 FR0078 96.90 8.70 1996 OTMA02B idAA+ 100.35 6.34 80 FR0063 89.25 8.50 1703 WOMF02ACN5 AA-(idn) 99.25 6.07 70 FR0075 85.30 9.12 1467 WOMF02ACN4 AA-(idn) 99.30 6.37 40 FR0056 97.20 8.87 786 WOMF02BCN3 AA-(idn) 99.05 6.81 40 FR0074 88.25 9.00 729 WSKT02BCN3 idA- 101.84 8.45 39 FR0064 83.20 8.75 724 PIKI01B idAA 100.43 8.10 34 FR0069 100.45 6.94 655 BAFI02A idAA 98.96 5.34 30 FR0070 98.25 8.79 549 WSKT03BCN1 A(idn) 95.87 8.04 29 SPN12190214 97.80 6.80 448 BMRI01CN3 idAAA 100.02 8.49 26
Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 12-Oct
Indonesia (JCI) 5756 53.67 0.94% -9.43% 12-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1731 22.25 1.30% -3.68% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Thailand (SET) 1696 13.27 0.79% -3.28% Fed Fund Rate 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.00 Singapore (STI) 3069 21.78 0.71% -9.8% 2-Year 2.86 2.85 2.89 2.78 Hang Seng 25801 535.12 2.12% -13.8% 5-Year 3.02 3.01 3.07 2.90 Nikkei 225 22695 103.80 0.46% -0.31% 10-Year 3.15 3.16 3.19 2.97 Shanghai 2607 23.45 0.91% -21.17% 30-Year 3.34 3.32 3.41 3.13 Dow Jones (DJIA) 25340 287.16 1.15% 2.51% 10-Year Government Bond Yield
London (FTSE 100) 6996 -11.02 -0.16% -9.00% UK 1.63 1.67 1.72 1.53 DAX 11524 -15.54 -0.13% -10.8% Germany 0.50 0.52 0.57 0.45
France 0.86 0.88 0.90 0.77
FX Rate 12-Oct China 3.58 3.58 3.62 3.66
12-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.15 0.14 0.15 0.11 USD/IDR 15,188 15,180 15,260 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 GBP/USD 1.316 1.323 1.311 Thailand 2.83 2.85 2.86 2.85 USD/JPY 112.2 112.2 113.7 Malaysia 4.12 4.13 4.10 4.10 USD/SGD 1.378 1.376 1.383 Singapore 2.57 2.57 2.59 2.47 USD/THB 32.75 32.72 32.82 Indonesia USD Bond Yield
USD/MYR 4.155 4.159 4.147 INDO-22 4.03 4.03 3.97 3.95 INDO-27 4.70 4.73 4.66 4.61
Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 5.33 5.37 5.30 5.22
Sep-18 Aug-18 Jul-18
Consumer Price Index (MoM) -0.20 -0.05 0.28 Money Market 12-Oct
Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.88 3.20 3.18 12-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.82 2.90 2.87 JIBOR
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.75 5.50 5.25 O/N 5.84 5.78 5.68 5.47 Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 114.80 117.90 118.30 1M 7.13 7.13 7.03 6.70
3M 7.46 7.44 7.37 7.12
Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR
As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.28 2.28 2.28 2.16
12-Oct 70.89 144.05 220.52 3M 2.44 2.44 2.41 2.34
(-1 Day) 73.75 149.83 227.59 6M 2.65 2.64 2.62 2.57 (-1 Week) 66.71 144.04 217.99 Indonesia Interest Rates
(-1 Month) 66.04 133.57 216.19 Deposit 1M 6.00 6.03 5.99 5.87 (-1 Year) 38.86 98.26 165.77 Lending 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.7
Benchmark 12-Oct (-1 day) Change Yield
FR0061 96.04 96.19 -15 8.30% FR0059 89.43 89.85 -41 8.78% FR0074 88.11 88.49 -37 9.02% FR0072 92.92 92.98 -5 9.06%
Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield Most Active Government Bonds Last Price
Government Bond Ownership As of October 11, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 8-Oct-18 9-Oct-18 10-Oct-18 11-Oct-18
Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 650.11 647.03 647.78 656.78 Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 75.18 79.50 79.95 86.97 Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 116.76 116.79 116.59 116.94 Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 192.06 192.12 192.22 192.39 Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 849.60 848.52 847.37 850.04 Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 216.49 216.35 216.53 217.21 Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 64.15 64.03 63.86 63.82 Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 134.14 134.15 134.20 134.36 Total 995.25 1,209.96 1,461.85 1,773.28 2,099.77 2,298.50 2,298.50 2,298.50 2,318.50
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 12-Oct-2018
Series
Maturity
TTM
Coupon
Price
YTM
Price (-1)
Price Spread (bps)
FR0069
15-Apr-19
0.51
7.875%
100.51
6.81%
100.51
-0.2
FR0036
15-Sep-19
0.93
11.500%
103.87
7.04%
103.82
4.9
FR0031
15-Nov-20
2.10
11.000%
106.59
7.52%
106.66
-6.9
FR0034
15-Jun-21
2.68
12.800%
111.24
8.02%
111.58
-33.9
FR0053
15-Jul-21
2.76
8.250%
100.35
8.10%
100.29
6.1
FR0061
15-May-22
3.59
7.000%
96.04
8.30%
96.19
-14.9
FR0035
15-Jun-22
3.68
12.900%
114.00
8.38%
114.00
0.0
FR0043
15-Jul-22
3.76
10.250%
105.94
8.36%
105.91
3.2
FR0063
15-May-23
4.59
5.625%
89.54
8.42%
89.81
-27.1
FR0046
15-Jul-23
4.76
9.500%
103.63
8.55%
103.63
0.0
FR0039
15-Aug-23
4.84
11.750%
112.24
8.59%
112.89
-64.8
FR0070
15-Mar-24
5.43
8.375%
99.12
8.58%
99.38
-25.7
FR0077
15-May-24
5.59
8.125%
97.96
8.59%
98.61
-64.6
FR0044
15-Sep-24
5.93
10.000%
105.93
8.69%
106.02
-9.6
FR0040
15-Sep-25
6.93
11.000%
111.29
8.78%
111.70
-41.0
FR0037
15-Sep-26
7.93
12.000%
117.76
8.83%
118.34
-57.9
FR0056
15-Sep-26
7.93
8.375%
97.87
8.75%
99.86
-199.4
FR0059
15-May-27
8.59
7.000%
89.43
8.78%
89.85
-41.4
FR0042
15-Jul-27
8.76
10.250%
108.54
8.82%
109.61
-107.0
FR0047
15-Feb-28
9.35
10.000%
107.37
8.82%
107.96
-59.6
FR0064
15-May-28
9.60
6.125%
83.42
8.71%
83.84
-41.5
FR0071
15-Mar-29
10.43
9.000%
100.74
8.89%
101.04
-30.0
FR0078
15-May-29
10.60
8.500%
97.48
8.62%
98.55
-107.5
FR0052
15-Aug-30
11.85
10.500%
113.26
8.68%
113.26
0.0
FR0073
15-May-31
12.60
8.750%
98.03
9.01%
102.56
-452.2
FR0054
15-Jul-31
12.76
9.500%
103.84
8.98%
105.47
-162.6
FR0058
15-Jun-32
13.68
8.250%
94.00
9.02%
94.50
-50.2
FR0074
15-Aug-32
13.85
7.500%
88.11
9.02%
88.49
-37.3
FR0065
15-May-33
14.60
6.625%
81.76
8.88%
82.50
-74.1
FR0068
15-Mar-34
15.43
8.375%
94.51
9.04%
95.01
-49.8
FR0072
15-May-36
17.60
8.250%
92.92
9.06%
92.98
-5.3
FR0045
15-May-37
18.60
9.750%
106.79
8.98%
106.886
-9.4
FR0075
15-May-38
19.60
7.500%
85.44
9.11%
85.94
-50.3
FR0050
15-Jul-38
19.77
10.500%
112.59
9.11%
112.82
-22.9
FR0057
15-May-41
22.61
9.500%
102.50
9.23%
102.50
0.0
FR0062
15-Apr-42
23.52
6.375%
74.50
9.00%
74.50
0.0
FR0067
15-Jul-43
24.77
8.750%
96.02
9.15%
98.42
-239.2
FR0076
15-May-48
29.61
7.375%
81.81
9.19%
82.03
-22.0
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)
Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (October 15 - October 19 2018)
Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018) INDONESIA
Date Indicator Series
Data Actual Previous Projection
15 Balance of Trade Sep-18 - USD -1.02 billion USD 0.30 billion
15 Exports Growth (YoY) Sep-18 - 4.15% 7.58%
15 Imports Growth (YoY) Sep-18 - 24.65% 24.67%
GLOBAL
Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection
15 Retail Sales (MoM) US Sep-18 - 0.1% 0.3%
16 Inflation Rate (YoY) China Sep-18 - 2.3% 2.3%
16 Unemployment Rate United
Kingdom Aug-18 - 4.0% 4.0%
17 Inflation Rate (YoY) United
Kingdom Sep-18 - 2.7% 2.5%
17 Inflation Rate Final
(YoY) Euro Area Sep-18 - 2.0% 2.1%
17 Crude Oil Inventory US Week Ended,
Oct 12 - 2018 - 5.99 million barrel 1.66 million barrel 18 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended,
Oct 13 - 2018 - 214 thousand 212thousand
18 Continuing Jobless
Claims US
Week Ended,
Sep 13 - 2018 - 1660 thousand 1640 thousand
19 Economic Growth Rate
(YoY) China 3rd Quarter - 6.7% 6.6%
19 Existing Home Sales US Sep-18 - 5.34 million 5.31 million
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