Research Institute for
Humanity and Nature
Makoto Taniguchi
Global groundwater
problems and
adaptation for
You
will
have
the
following
assignments
during
the
last
discussion
on
November
19
(Fri).
(1)
Why
is
groundwater
important
as
water
resources
and
a
part
of
water
cycle
?
(300
words)
(2)
What
kind
of
techniques
and
methods
will
be
needed
for
monitoring
and
modeling
of
groundwater
?
(300
words)
20
thcentury:
century
of
oil
21
stcentury
:
century
of
water
•
Population
increase,
global
warming,
contamination
Æ
degradation
of
water
environment,
water
“wars”
•
From
exhausting
resources
to
re
‐
cycling
resources
21
st
c is the “Century of
Water”
More than 1/3 of world
population rely on
Reasons
why
does
groundwater
system
change
(1)
Change
in
input
to
GW
system
Change
in
GW
recharge
rate
*
change
in
precipitation
(nature)
*
change
in
land
cover/use
(human)
(2)
Change
in
output
from
GW
system
Change
in
GW
discharge
rate
*
change
in
sea
level
(nature)
Change
of
Rainfall
(1900
‐
2000)
Less Rainfall
Global
Warming
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100
Change
of
precipitation
due
to
global
warming
Changes in Runoff Extremes
(2070s, A2 Scenario, WaterGAP Model, Hadley Climate Predictions)
no change in extremes
Change in Annual Water Availability
(2020s, A2 Scenario, WaterGAP Model, Hadley Climate
Predictions)
← Lower runoff Higher runoff →
Change in Annual Water Withdrawals
(2020s, A2 Scenario, WaterGAP Model)
← Lower withdrawals Higher withdrawals →
Climate change
Water Scarce Areas with Increasing Water Stress
(up to 2020s)
because of:
• increasing water use (socio-economic changes)
and/or
• decreasing water availability (climate change)
Increasing water stress
Withdrawal to Availability Ratio: Water Stress
Modified from Vörösmarty et al. 2000
Effect of Climate change
20 %
Water Stress Changes
to 2025
UNH
Effects of population change
80 %
Decrease in groundwater storage (stock)
Groundwater Regions, Political boundaries, river basins & non recharged aquifers (ISRAM,
2006)
Decrease by :
200 billion ton/y
(Foster, 2000)
1/6 of global river discharge)
Decrease
in
groundwater
due
to
Decrease in water table
Registered wells
Total No. : 128,720 (0.3 wells/km2)
(Mao et al. 1998)
10
20
30
-20
-40
0 20
Bohai Sea
1959
1992
Decrease in groundwater storage
(Northern China Plain)
Bohai Sea
Decrease in GL 40m/40y
Uses of deep groundwater
Doll et al., 2003
High plain aquifer < 50mm/y
Northern China plain < 50mm/y
Japan
400mm/y
flow
< consumption
⇒
decrease in stock
Groundwater
recharge
rate
(flow)
mm/y
Virtual
Water
How much
water
do we
need to grow
feed
?
How much feed do we
need to grow a cow
?
Do you think this is a sustainable way ?
wheat
corn
soy beans pork
beef
Total imported “Virtual water” to Japan: 104 billion t/year
Total consumption of domestic water in Japan : 89 billion t/year
Share of each “virtual water” into Japan
others
>
Virtual water from less water countries to
more water countries
Question 3
Bottle
water
•
Why
do
people
prefer
bottle
water
to
tap
water
?
* more tasty ?
* more safe ?
* more
fashionable ?
* more
i
t ?
Human Population
U.S. Bureau
of
the
Census
Water
problems
in
the
world
Shortage of Water Resources
25 % people of the world (1.2 billion)
cannot access the safety water
15 % people of the world (0.8 billion)
Water
problems
in
the
world
Degradation of Water Quality
50 % people of the world is not under the sanitary condition
Dead people due to bad water quality (1998)
Diarrhea 5 million
Cholera 20 thousand
Typhus 3 thousand
Water
problems
in
the
world
Y
Yellow River (China)
Decrease of groundwater in HPA (USA)
present 1850
Shrink of Aral Sea
due to water use for cotton
Water
problems
in
the
world
Disaster of flooding
Dead people by natural disasters (1988-1997) 0.4 million
Flooding
Earthquake
Typhoon
Economic loss by natural disasters (1988-1997)
700 billion $
Others
Others
Earthquake
Typhoon
Flooding
Residence
Time
of
the
Water
Volume
(km3)
Flow
(km3/year)
Residence
Time
Sea Water
1,350,000,000 418,0003,200 y
Snow & Ice
24,000,000 2,5009,600 y
Groundwater
10,000,000 12,000830 y
River water
220,000 35,00013 d
Vapor water
130,000 483,00010 d
Distribution
of
rainfall
(mm/year)
Annual rainfall (mm/year)
Fewer rainĺdesert Fewer rainĺdesert
Water
wars
in
the
world
Equator
Fewer rain
Water
problems
More than 1/7 of total population cannot access to
the safe water =0.9 Billion
，
0.5 Billion in Asia)
The number will increase due to global warming and
population increase
Water imbalance
Change of water environment due to increase in
population and climate change
Population inc.
Homogenous society Water demand↑
Climate change
Globalization
Forest, agriculture, wet land, Biodiversity ↓ Quality ↓
Local water culture &culture diversity ↓
fresh water, river water, GW ↓
inharmonious society with local nature
Life, capital, health↓ Flooding↑
Drought↑ Food supply↓
Water Env. Change due to globalization
Social
Sci.
Natural
Sci.
Flooding：
Improper management
Urban flooding
Land subsidence
Flooding due to not only natural causes but also human impacts
too much water
RIHN China Vietnam T h a ila n dFailiur of modern resources management
Community involvement is necessary Decrease of biodiversity
Global economy deteriorated indigenous society L a o s M y a n m a r
dry
wet
Eco‐history P Akimichi
too
little
water
Y
Dry‐up Yellow River
Fukushima
Increase of
ET due to
forest
clearing
caused YR
dry‐up
RIHN
Global W Oki & Kanae
Oki & Kanae (2006) Science 313
1:
Water
imbalance
in
space
and
time:
far
near
fast
slow
rain water
Lake water
River water
tapped water
Dam water Bottle water
ground water virtual water
space time
Far
‐
Slow
water
has
an
impact
on
water
imbalance
without
knowing,
therefore
we
should
pay
more
attention
to
them
for
“Futurability”.
RIHN
Water deficit occurred due to agriculture in middle and down stream
Climate change Human impacts
Reconstruction Oasis P Nakawo
Prediction (Global warming & agriculture P) Watanabe)
Va ri a ti o n of the ar eas of agricultur e and lak e wate r
Prediction for 2070
Irrigation
Adaptation/mitigation by not only SEK but also TEK is necessary
Turkey
River discharge (climate change)
Agr (middle)
Lake water
RIHN
Linkage between Human and Water
revealed by tracers (isotopes)
Lake Biwa – Yodo R (Wada & Yachi)
Layered structure
Population density (person/km2)
δ
15N of herbivore
Linkages of land/ocean & human/habitat/water
Kamaiso
P
GW
discharge
River
discharge ET
Mt Chokai
Kisaka ta
Mega
Kamaiso Fukura
Sakata→
Effect of R
Sea water
Effects of GW
No River
Sr ratio： sea < river < GW
Sr isotope of oyster shell can tell the origin of water
Kisakata Mega Kamaiso
Fukura Sakata N
Precipitation (mm/y)
Pr oduction of Oy st er (kg /y)
Benefit of linkage
between land &
ocean for society
by water cycle.
1994
黄河 場合 天井川 断流 と 河川 地下 水へ 涵養 無く って まう． 地下水 河川水 涵養 地下水と河川水 平衡 河川水 地下水 涵養 Yellow River groundwater 遠藤氏撮影 大明神川 加茂川
“public
water
”
“private
water”
GW GW
R
R
Kamo R
Kurose Dam
Kamo river basin Kamo River
GW Pri
SW Pub
Decrease of River discharge→ Decrease of GW recharge/
saltwater intrusion
Trans‐boundary water
from Kurose dam to out
of basin (Matsuyama)
GW → R
GW R
Trans-boundary international R/G W)
Groundwater Regions, Political boundaries, river basins & non recharged aquifers (ISRAM, 2006)
United Nation General Assembly (2008.12.11): Trans boundary GW (International Law)
pride・norm → law・institution
Linkage of water, institution & mind
加茂川 入
だ 西条
Harmonized
society-local nature with TEK
New technology (SEK)
past present future
•
To
design
the
future
society
with
water
environment
(stock/flow)
to minimize
disaster
and
maximize
benefit
,
•
To
evaluate
not
only
water
resources
but
also
water
“circulation”
which
makes
linkage
between
society
and
habitats,
•
To
manage
water
with
“blur”
boundaries,
and
to
clarify
the
benefit
of
local
water
culture,
and
•
To
make
laws/institutions
from
pride/norm
under
changing
society
and
climate.
Research Institute for
Humanity and Nature
Makoto Taniguchi
Global groundwater
problems and
adaptation for
The
Research
Institute
for
Humanity
and
Nature
Kyoto,
Japan
Makoto
Taniguchi
•
RIHN
a
national
research
institute
soliciting
and
funding
fixed
‐
term
research
projects
•
Rigorous
empirical
study
and
profound
conceptual
engagement
in
humanity
‐
nature
interactions
•
Humanity
and
human
wellbeing
in
the
midst
of
a
dynamic,
changeable
nature
RIHN: established in Kyoto in 2001
New building completed in 2005
Financed by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
High functionability (laboratories, offices muti‐use and residential
5 Research Domains
Transdisciplinary
Framework
•
Beyond
purely
rationalistic
description
of
human
behavior
and
environmental
impact
•
Beyond
individual
specializations
and
disciplines
•
Seek
consilience
between
different
traditions
of
knowledge
•
Gather
empirical
and
theoretical
descriptions
in
a
framework
that
allows
consistent
action
between
human
observations,
capabilities,
social
norms
and
principles
or
values
•
Full
range
of
human
intelligence
to
the
past
and
Global Environmental Issues
Subsurface Environments ?
Subsurface environmental issues are important for
human life in the present and future, but have been
largely ignored because of the
invisibility
of the
phenomena and
difficulty
of the evaluations
.
Decrease of Biodiversity
Seawater pollution Global warming
Air pollution
¾ Contamination of groundwater / Saltwater intrusion
Fresh-salt water interface
Land
subsidence
¾ Land subsidence by
over‐pumping
¾ Recovery of groundwater storage
→ buoyancy → floating stations
Urban
Ueno Station
Steel board of 30000 tons
New problems
Year
Suburb
Invisible
global
environment
issues
under
the
ground
groundwater level
(m)
Traditional problems
Regulation of GW pumping
¾ Increase of subsurface temperature → increase of micro biomass
Groundwater pumping
Land subsidence
Regulation of pumping
Damage of under-ground infrastructure
Effects to ecosystem
Coastal water pollution Global warming Population Urbanization Economy
Increase demand of water resources
Water storage in Dam
Increase of loads
Contaminations of soil and groundwater
flooding Expand of
Heat island
Subsurface thermal contamination
Increase of river & coastal water temperature Saltwater intrusion
Air pollution Decrease in biodiversity
Sea pollution
Driving force Pressure
State Effect Flow chart of the project
Decrease of useful groundwater resources Increase of soil
51
Human Impacts on Urban Subsurface
Environments
l
Circulation program C05 (FR4)
52
RIHN project core members
Backjin LEE KRIHS
William C Burnett FSU, USA
Gayl Ness U of Michigan , USA
Shaopeng Huang U of Michigan , USA
Makoto Taniguchi
RIHN
and more…..
Material Water
Gravity
Urban geography Social economy
53 Population > million > million Bangkok Jakarta Seoul Tokyo Population Tokyo Taipei Bangkok Groundwater level Tokyo Bangkok Taipei Land subsidence
The goals of this project are to evaluate the
relationships between
the development stage of
the cities
and
subsurface environmental
problems
, and to suggest
sustainable use
of
subsurface environment.
Traditional problems (land subsidence) New problems (floating subway station)Subsurface environmental problems, such as land subsidence,
contamination, and subsurface thermal anomalies, occurred one after another in Asian major cities with a time lag depending on the
development stage of each city.
54
Subsurface
environment
Urb a n
He a t
Ma te ria l
Wa te r
3： Subsurface
contaminations and loads to the coast
1: Development stages of cities and subsurface environmental problems
4: Heat island effect and
subsurface thermal anomalies
2: Degradation of subsurface environments and change in reliable water resources
Integrated study on subsurface problems
C ro ss c utting
(3)G IS/ Da ta b a se (1)Inte g ra te d
55
D
P
S
B-1: Hydro-climate (a) Storage
(b) Recharge
(c) Turnover time
B-2: Geology-geomorphology (d) redox
(e) gradient/permeability
(f) thermal gradient
Water → land subsidence
Material → contamination
Heat → thermal storage
Three subjects
Two indices
B: Natural Capacity A: Changing Society
& Environment
Thermal storage A-1: Driving Force
(a) Population (b) Income
(c) Industrial structure (d) Urbanization ratio A-2 :Pressure
(k) Energy consumption (l) Heat Island Index
(m) Air temperature A-3: State
(n) Thermal storage
P I S D I R
Land subsidence
A-1: Driving Force
(a) Population (b) Income
(c) Industrial structure (d) Urbanization ratio
A-2 :Pressure
(e) Water consumption (f) Groundwater pumping (g) Groundwater
dependency A-3: State
(h) Groundwater level A-4:Impact
(i) Land subsidence
A-5: Response
(j) Regulation
Contamination
A-1: Driving Force (a) Population
(b) Income
(c) Industrial structure (d) Urbanization ratio A-2 :Pressure
(e) Num. of Passenger Vehicles
(f) Industrial Water Use
A-3: State
(g) Concentration
A-4:Impact
(h) Accumulated contamination A-5: Response
56
1930
Tokyo 1960 2000
Land use/cover changes
(0.5 km grid, 7 cities, 3 ages)
1930
Osaka 1920 1970 2000
Seoul 1930 1960 2000
Taipei 1910 1956 2000
Bangkok 1930 1960 2000
Jakarta 1930 1960 2000
Manila 1960 2000
Forest Grassland Rice Agriculture Industry Urban Wetland Others Ocean
1930 1960 2000
Heat (HII)
1930
2000
B J T O M S
Material (N)
B J T O M S
Water (SWAT)
1960 2000
567
422
612
302 (51%↓) Unit: mm/year
378 (33%↓)
248 (41%↓)
Water→ recharge
Material → contamination
Heat → heat storage
3%Ĺ 8%Ĺ
x2 - x6Ĺ
57
F: Forest H: House I: Industries P: Paddy field
A: Agriculture field
1930 → 1970 1970 → 2000
GW: Grass & Wasteland OC: Ocean
W: Water & wetland OT: Others
Tokyo
Osaka
Seoul
Changes in urban area
Land use analyses
1927 1967 2001
Osaka
1920’s IP：P 68：88 (44%)
1960’s IP：P 158：30 (84%)
2000’s IP：P 183：17 (92%) IP: impermeable, P: Permeable
Urban Geography G
58 Land Water Change in
Chao Phraya
GRACE Model Storage change (2002-2008) Satellite GRACE BK NL NB
Wa te r
ReanalysisModel
PD
Evaluations of water storage change
GRACE (gravity)⇔Reanalysis
(climate)⇔ GW model (hydrology)
Bangkok Jakarta Tokyo Osaka Sea Sea Sea Sea
GW pumping &recharge
The area of groundwater recharge
moved to the suburbs after
regulation of groundwater pumping
N
BK NL
NB
PD
GW Modeling in Bangkok
More than 10 times of the official
record of GW was pumped in Jakarta, which was revealed by socio economic data and GW modeling.
Evaluations of groundwater
with different methods
in situ, statistic, tracers,
numerical modeling)
59
Depth (m)
distance
elevation (m)
0 230 900 Recharge area (Bangkok)
Groundwater flow system and the
recharge area were revealed by
60
Natural capacity indices
(storage,
recharge)
T
㎢ Y
T
T
J
τ: Turnover time (year)
S: Storage capacity(m3)
Q: Recharge (m3/year)
=
G
GLDAS (CLM)
Larger natural capacity:
storage：Bangkok, Tokyo, Osaka recharge：Taipei, Manila
Turnover time decreased by 90% from natural conditions due to GW pumping
B
Change in turnover time due to GW pumping
year
61
Accumulation
Ma te ria l
Reconstructions of contaminant history from sediments and social
economy data
a ccu m u la t ion
Tr a n spor t ( loa d)
low
high
Risk / Vulnerability
Saltwater
Intrusion
(+)
SGD
(-)
(M m
3 /day)
Saltwater Intrusion
SGD
Transport
Comparison of risk / vulnerability from “accumulation” and “transport” points of view
62
Obs. SGDin Osaka (high Rn high SGD)
Clam
Clam Number
SGD (seepage) Nitrate
63
Seoul Taipei Bangkok
Jakarta Manila
Groundwater contamination
‐20 ‐10 0 +10 +20 +30 +40
+60 +40 +20 0 ‐20 Bangkok Manila Jakarta Taipei
Manure and Septic waste Atmospheric
Nitrate Fertilizer
Ammonium Fertilizer
δ15N (
‰) δ 18 O ( ‰ ) Deposits
Anthropogenic
Seawater intrusion
64
NH4 NO3 PO4 SiO2
Moles/
day
1e+3 1e+4 1e+5 1e+6 1e+7
River flux
Seepage Flux
NH4 NO3 PO4 SiO2 SriRacha (Jan 04) Hua Hin (July 04)
Nutrient discharge SW vs. GW
2%
71%
44%
37%
1%
58%
15%
47%
Importance of SGD for nutrient
discharge to the ocean
65 Tokyo(39) Osaka(37) Bangkok(23) Seoul (15) Jakarta(34)
Increased surf. Temp.
Tokyo：+ 2.8℃ Seoul：+ 2.5 ℃ Osaka： + 2.2℃ Bangkok：+ 1.8 ℃
Jakarta： + 1.2℃
Observed GW temp. Taipei(10)
Tokyo Osaka
Seoul Bangkok
Increased thermal storage depends on magnitude and timing of surface warming
→index of urbanization
Rural (A)
Suburb (C)
Center (D/E)
Bangkok
Reconstructions of urbanization history have been made by uses of subsurface temperature
Center
rural
suburb
He a t
More than 2-3 times of the worlds average heat was stored in subsurface at Asian cities during the last 100 years.
66 Jakarta Manila Bangkok Taipei Tokyo Osaka
1915/16 1922/23 1974/75
1917/18 1957/58 1979/80
1915/16 1955/56 1978/79 1985/86
1996/97
1975/76 1992/93
1950/51 2001/02
1959/60
1950/51 1979/80
Water demand transition (share of industrial water demand)
1914 1958
Water supply transition (dependency on groundwater)
Policy transition (land subsidence)
1916 1947 1957 1976
1916 1961 1975
(Development stage of the city)
1st stage：
Beginning of urbanization
2nd stage：
Increase of Industrial water demand
3rd stage：
Recognition of Land Subsidence
4th stage：
Regulation and Effective measures
5th stage：
Settlement
Stage model with DPSIR framework
Integrated model with &
(7
cities)
Groundwater charge system was introduced just after the recognition of land subsidence.
(short 3rd stage means followers benefit)
67
Historical
trend
of
population
and
GRDP
Population GRDP per capita
68
69
Water
consumption
per
capita
and
Groundwater
abstraction
70
Groundwater level (m)
Pb
Thermal storage
S
R
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1001900190519101915192019251930193519401945195019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005
Tokyo Osaka Seoul Taipei Bangkok Jakarta Manila
71
I
P
S D
3rd stage Recognition 4th stage：Regulation
Development pattern City
A: Following Tokyo (Tokyo), Osaka
B: Excessive Development Jakarta
C: Followers benefit Bangkok, (Manila)
D: Natural Capacity Benefit Taipei, (Bangkok)
D I P S Land subsidence stopped after
regulation in
Taipei
GL recovered rapidly
ÎLarge natural capacity (recharge) Population Groundwater pumping Decrease of GW level Land subsidence Rapid urbanization
in Jakarta Large GW pumping
Huge land subsidence
→Excessive loadto city
72
Conclusions
• Integrated study on urban subsurface
environments beyond the boundaries,
surface-subsurface (climate, geodesy,
hydrology) and land-ocean (hydrology,
oceanography) revealed that:
(1) Repeated subsurface problems occurred due to increase in water demand and urbanization, then accelerated the GW circulation
(more than 10 times). It also increased the accumulation of material and heat in subsurface,
(2) The alternative resources are important for society, thus
groundwater/subsurface environments are key for adaptation to the changing society and environment. Subsurface environments can be sustainable with careful management, and
74
Gulf of Thailand
Elevation
(m)
Bangk
o
k
B
a
n
g
k
o
k
Y
a
i
K
lo
n
75
Temple
upstream downstream
Temple Temple
• The people who live in Bangkok
respect “Buddhism and temples”, therefore they build the temples at relatively stable land (such as
sandy soil with high permeability / relatively high elevation), therefore groundwater discharge may occur.
222
Rn
&
cond.
measurements
in
cannel
Hypothesis
Radon of water at the from of temple is always higher. Groundwater with higher Rn
discharge at the from of temples
Fact
76
• Groundwater discharges at the front of temples, because the temples are located in the sandy and a little bit higher elevation.
Elevation and location of temples 標 高 寺立 地ピ ク セ ル数 全域 ピ ク セ ル数 Number of temples:836
Average elevation 3.9m Elevation of temples: 5.4 m
Elevation of land where temples are located is 1.5 m higher than average elevation
Interview on the location of temples
77
Religious respect to Buddhism may be reflected into the
quality of water in cannel as human –
nature interaction
in Bangkok.
Cross
cutting;
Religion/Law
&
GW
Surface water (public water) Groundwater (private water)
Time
Friday
Groundwater level
Reconstructs of religious activities from long-term
records of groundwater level Religious events and groundwater (Jakarta
Regulation of groundwater
pumping on 1980,1991 (Bangkok)
Regulation Failure without alternative water resources Æ Public vs. private water
Traditional
Environmental Knowledge
Scientific
Environmental Knowledge
Long-term strategy and the nature-human knowledge
Social & Institutional Knowledge
(followers benefit, linkage of society)
A: Changing society & environment
