Riset Saham Harian. IHSG berpotensi menguat tipis. Highlights. Samuel Equity Research 22 Oktober 2018

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Riset Saham Harian

Samuel Equity Research 22 Oktober 2018

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IHSG berpotensi menguat tipis

Indeks-indeks acuan Wall Street ditutup bervariasi pada perdagangan saham hari Jumat (19/10/2018). Musim pelaporan kinerja keuangan kuartal ketiga ini terlihat cukup kuat sejauh ini. Dengan lebih dari 15% perusahaan S&P 500 yang telah merilis kinerjanya, 83% di antaranya melampaui perkiraan analis, menurut data FactSet.

Sementara itu, Bursa Eropa melemah tipis di akhir perdagangan hari Jumat (19/10/2018) setelah komisioner ekonomi Uni Eropa (UE) mengatakan belum ada keputusan terkait rancangan anggaran Italia yang kontroversial.

Para investor memantau beberapa isu politik di kawasan itu Jumat pagi.

Pemerintah Italia mempertahankan prioritas anggaran 2019 setelah Komisi Eropa mengirimkan surat kepada Menteri Ekonomi Giovanni Tria. UE berpendapat rencana-rencana keuangan Italia adalah pelanggaran berat terhadap ketentuan anggaran UE. Italia harus merespons dan menjawab surat tersebut hari Senin mendatang.

Dari dalam negeri, sempat menguat hingga 0,29% pada awal sesi II, Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) tak mampu menghadapi tekanan sehingga harus mengakhiri perdagangan akhir pekan dengan pelemahan 0,14% di level 5,837. Nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 6,5 triliun atau lebih tinggi dibandingkan hari sebelumnya senilai Rp 5,3 triliun. Investor asing kembali membukukan jual bersih (net sell) dengan nilai Rp 255 miliar. Hingga tahun berjalan investor asing masih membukukan net sell Rp 56,5 triliun. Pada Senin ini, kami memprediksi IHSG menguat namun terbatas. Rilis kinerja keuangan 9M18 masih akan mewarnai pergerakan bursa. EIDO dan Rupiah tercatat menguat tipis.

Highlights

 WIKA: Targetkan Rp4,5tn kontrak baru luar negeri

 Pool Advista Finance: Lepas 23,92% saham melalui IPO

 AISA: Bersiap menggelar RUPSLB : 5,837.3

: -8.0 (-0.14%) : 6,373 Mn shrs : 5,605 Bn rupiah Last

Close +/- %

ASII 7,300 275 3.9

MAYA 8,150 1200 17.3

CPIN 5,650 300 5.6

UNVR 44,850 250 0.6

BBRI 3,020 -70 -2.3

HMSP 3,790 -50 -1.3

BBCA 23,375 -225 -1.0

TLKM 3,730 -30 -0.8

Foreign Net Buy / Sell (Regular Market) Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn)

SRIL 58 BBCA 105

ASII 36 UNTR 71

CPIN 19 TLKM 50

TKIM 13 BBNI 47

PTBA 10 BMRI 38 Money Market

Last

Close +/- %

USD/IDR 15,187 -7.0 0.0

JIBOR O/N 5.8 0.0

Dual Listing Securities Last

Close +/- %

TLKM 24.6 0.3 1.1

ISAT 50.6 -0.8 -1.6

EIDO 21.7 0.3 1.2

Global Indices Last

Close +/- %

DJIA 25,444 65 0.3

S&P 500 2,768 -1 0.0

Euro Stoxx 3,211 -1 0.0

MSCI World 2,062 -2 -0.1

Nikkei 22,296 -237 -1.0

Hang Seng 25,561 107 0.4

Commodities Last

Close +/- %

Brent Oil 80 -0.1 -0.1

CPO Malay 2,224 -15.0 -0.7

Coal (ICE) 111 0.6 0.5

Nickel 12,398 94.0 0.8

Tin 19,185 149.0 0.8

Market Value Market Activity Monday, 22 Oct 2018 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume

Changes Changes

Leading Movers

Lagging Movers

Changes

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Riset Saham Harian

22 Oktober 2018

WIKA: Targetkan Rp4,5tn kontrak baru luar negeri

 PT Wijaya Karya (Persero), Tbk (WIKA) mentargetkan perolehan kontrak baru luar negeri sebesar Rp4.5tn. Selain potensi memperoleh pengerjaan empat proyek senilai Rp2.1tn di Aljazair, persroan juga mengejar perolehan kontrak pembangunan kalan senilai US$100jt di Senegal dan proyek pariwisata senilai US$250juta.

 Sebelumnya WIKA juga telah menendatangani kontrak renovasi Istana Presiden Niger di Aug18 senilai AEUR233.66juta. (Bisnis Indonesia) WIKA: BUY. P/E19E 6.2x. PBV19E 0.6x Tp: Rp 1,850

Pool Advista Finance: Lepas 23,92% saham melalui IPO

 PT Pool Advista Finance berencana melepas 23,92% saham melalui IPO. Akan dirilis pula sejumlah waran. Dana yang didapat akan dipakai untuk modal kerja dan ekspansi.

Underwriter-nya akan ditentukan kemudian.

 Perusahaan ini bergerak di bidang pembiayaan multiguna, pembiayaan investasi, pembiayaan modal kerja, dan pembiayaan syariah. Sebelumnya, induk perusahaan ini yaitu PT Pool Advista Indonesia Tbk (POOL) telah melangsungkan IPO saham. (Investor Daily)

AISA: Bersiap menggelar RUPSLB

 Hari ini, PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk. (AISA) bersiap untuk menggelar Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Luar Biasa (RUPSLB) untuk menentukan jajaran divisi yang baru.

RUPSLB ini merupakan kelanjutan dari RUPST yang dilaksanakan 27 Juli 2018 lalu dan agenda ini digagas serta digelar oleh Dewan Komisaris Perseroan.

 Sejak RUPST yang berakhir ricuh, AISA terbagi menjadi 2 kubu, kubu pertama dipimpin oleh Direktur Utama TPS Food, Stefanus Joko Mogoginta, dan kubu kedua dibentuk oleh pihak – pihak yang kontra dengan Joko, termasuk dua komisaris TPS Food, Henky Koestando dan Jaka Prasetya. (Bisnis Indonesia). AISA: Non - coverage.

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Riset Saham Harian

22 Oktober 2018

Stock Rec. JCI Wgt Last price YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE

(%) (Rp) (%) (Rp) (Rp) 18E 19E 18E 19E 18E 19E

Banks

BMRI BUY 4.6 6450 (19.4) 8168 8200 12.7 11.2 1.7 1.5 13.1% 13.4%

BBCA HOLD 8.8 23375 6.7 24861 26250 22.8 20.9 3.9 3.4 16.9% 16.2%

BBRI BUY 5.7 3020 (17.0) 3734 3800 11.7 10.4 2.0 1.8 17.2% 16.9%

BBNI BUY 2.0 7175 (27.5) 8936 9050 9.0 7.7 1.2 1.1 13.7% 14.3%

BBTN HOLD 0.4 2370 (33.6) 3272 2800 7.6 6.5 1.0 0.9 13.6% 13.9%

BNLI BUY 0.2 474 (24.2) 592 610 23.7 15.8 0.6 0.6 2.6% 3.7%

Average 14.6 12.1 1.7 1.5 12.8% 13.1%

Consumer (Staples)

ICBP BUY 1.6 8775 (1.4) 9735 10200 24.4 22.4 4.7 4.2 19.1% 18.6%

INDF BUY 0.8 6000 (21.3) 8213 8400 11.4 10.3 1.5 1.4 13.6% 13.8%

KLBF HOLD 1.0 1380 (18.3) 1399 1450 25.6 24.2 4.4 4.0 17.4% 16.7%

UNVR HOLD 5.3 44850 (19.8) 45778 49900 44.0 40.8 56.3 51.1 127.7% 125.2%

Average 26.3 24.4 16.7 15.2 44.4% 43.6%

Cigarette

HMSP SELL * 6.8 3790 (19.9) 4138 3900 34.1 32.0 11.6 10.5 34.0% 32.8%

GGRM BUY 2.3 78475 (6.4) 85280 83700 18.6 18.1 3.1 2.8 16.8% 15.3%

Average 26.4 25.1 7.4 6.6 25.4% 24.1%

Healthcare

MIKA BUY 0.3 1450 (19.9) 1829 2050 28.3 23.3 4.2 3.4 14.9% 14.6%

SILO HOLD 0.1 2410 (74.8) 3636 3250 35.7 30.8 0.5 0.4 1.4% 1.4%

Average 32.0 27.1 2.4 1.9 8.2% 8.0%

Poultry

CPIN HOLD 1.4 5650 88.3 5702 5500 22.2 19.6 5.0 4.2 22.5% 21.6%

JPFA BUY 0.3 1930 48.5 2741 2750 8.0 7.0 1.8 1.5 22.3% 21.2%

MAIN BUY 0.0 1220 64.9 1567 1400 8.3 5.7 1.1 0.9 13.2% 16.7%

Average 12.8 10.7 2.6 2.2 19.3% 19.8%

Retail

MAPI BUY 0.2 800 29.0 1016 930 26.7 17.0 3.3 2.8 12.3% 16.4%

RALS BUY 0.1 1195 (0.4) 1578 1550 20.3 17.8 2.3 2.2 11.2% 12.2%

ACES BUY 0.4 1360 17.7 1581 1550 24.3 20.6 6.6 5.6 27.3% 27.2%

Average 23.7 18.5 4.1 3.5 17.0% 18.6%

Pulp and Paper

INKP HOLD 1.1 13475 149.5 22450 20000 9.5 7.7 1.4 1.2 15.0% 15.7%

Media

MNCN BUY 0.2 780 (39.3) 1363 1500 6.9 6.7 1.1 1.1 16.5% 15.8%

SCMA BUY 0.4 1725 (30.4) 2332 3000 14.0 11.0 5.1 3.9 36.3% 35.8%

Average 10.5 8.8 3.1 2.5 26.4% 25.8%

Telco

EXCL BUY 0.5 2780 (6.1) 3715 3380 120.9 25.7 1.4 1.3 1.1% 5.1%

ISAT BUY 0.2 2680 (44.2) 3781 7400 5.4 5.0 0.9 0.8 16.3% 16.2%

TLKM HOLD 5.7 3730 (15.2) 4143 3700 19.3 19.2 3.8 3.5 19.7% 18.3%

TOWR BUY 0.4 498 (37.8) 821 900 8.6 7.8 1.7 1.5 20.2% 19.2%

Average 38.6 14.5 1.9 1.8 14.3% 14.7%

Auto and HE

ASII BUY 4.5 7300 (12.0) 8557 9400 14.6 13.1 2.1 1.9 14.7% 14.8%

UNTR BUY 1.9 32400 (8.5) 42502 41500 14.5 11.3 2.3 2.1 16.2% 18.3%

Average 14.5 12.2 2.2 2.0 15.4% 16.5%

Aviation

GIAA HOLD 0.1 206 (31.3) 276 295 150.9 14.9 0.4 0.3 0.3% 2.1%

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Riset Saham Harian

22 Oktober 2018

Property

BSDE BUY 0.3 1105 (35.0) 1841 2350 4.0 3.7 0.6 0.5 14.6% 13.6%

PWON BUY 0.4 488 (28.8) 705 767 11.9 10.0 2.0 1.7 16.8% 17.2%

ASRI HOLD 0.1 274 (23.0) 358 310 4.6 4.4 0.6 0.5 11.9% 11.2%

SMRA SELL * 0.1 610 (35.4) 916 782 24.4 23.0 1.1 1.2 4.6% 5.1%

SSIA HOLD 0.0 480 (6.8) 623 564 115.4 77.9 0.5 0.5 0.5% 0.7%

CTRA BUY 0.2 870 (26.6) 1300 1580 17.6 16.4 0.9 0.8 5.0% 5.1%

DMAS HOLD 0.1 128 (25.1) 196 156 9.2 8.8 0.8 0.7 8.7% 8.4%

KIJA SELL 0.1 216 (24.5) 240 203 48.5 42.3 0.7 0.7 1.5% 1.7%

Average 29.5 23.3 0.9 0.8 7.9% 7.9%

Construction

PTPP BUY 0.1 1570 (40.5) 3163 3350 7.7 7.0 0.8 0.8 10.9% 10.7%

ADHI BUY 0.1 1260 (33.2) 2331 3250 7.0 4.9 0.6 0.6 9.1% 11.4%

WSKT BUY 0.3 1540 (30.3) 2683 3250 5.7 5.2 0.8 0.8 14.3% 14.8%

WIKA BUY 0.2 1240 (20.0) 2159 1850 7.7 6.2 0.7 0.6 8.6% 9.4%

Average 7.0 5.9 0.7 0.7 10.7% 11.6%

Cement

INTP SELL 1.0 16900 (23.0) 16150 13300 22.7 19.3 2.2 2.0 9.6% 10.5%

SMGR BUY 0.8 8925 (9.8) 10104 12000 14.9 13.7 1.6 1.5 10.7% 10.7%

SMCB SELL 0.2 1680 101.2 732 700 -23.0 -27.5 1.8 1.8 -7.7% -6.6%

Average 4.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 4.2% 4.9%

Precast

WSBP BUY 0.1 348 (14.7) 496 580 8.2 7.0 1.0 0.9 12.4% 12.5%

WTON BUY 0.0 312 (37.6) 657 750 7.1 6.8 0.8 0.7 11.5% 10.0%

Average 7.6 6.9 0.9 0.8 11.9% 11.3%

Oil and Gas

PGAS BUY 0.8 2270 29.7 2600 3000 15.9 13.8 1.4 1.3 9.1% 9.7%

AKRA BUY 0.2 3640 (42.7) 5242 6000 7.8 10.1 1.6 1.5 20.4% 14.3%

TPIA SELL * 1.2 4470 (25.5) 4768 5480 18.2 16.4 3.1 2.7 16.8% 16.2%

BRPT HOLD 0.5 1820 (19.5) 2244 2400 12.5 11.1 0.9 0.8 7.6% 7.4%

ESSA BUY 0.1 312 61.5 444 457 43.3 11.4 1.4 1.1 3.2% 9.5%

MEDC BUY 0.2 875 (1.7) 1313 1500 12.0 9.4 3.9 3.1 32.6% 32.5%

Average 18.3 12.1 2.1 1.7 14.9% 14.9%

Utilities

JSMR BUY 0.5 4330 (32.3) 5782 7500 13.0 9.8 1.9 1.7 14.3% 16.8%

Metal

ANTM BUY 0.3 765 22.4 1218 1050 69.5 34.8 1.1 1.1 1.6% 3.1%

INCO BUY 0.5 3190 10.4 5004 5200 22.4 21.8 1.2 1.2 5.3% 5.4%

TINS BUY 0.1 695 (10.3) 1163 5200 10.5 9.7 0.9 0.8 8.1% 8.4%

Average 34.1 22.1 1.0 1.0 5.0% 5.6%

Coal

DOID BUY 0.1 815.0 14.0 1430.0 1450 5.6 5.1 1.9 1.4 34.4% 27.3%

ITMG BUY 0.4 24950 20.5 32497 32500 9.0 8.5 1.9 1.8 20.8% 20.8%

ADRO BUY 0.8 1700 (8.6) 2561 2410 7.3 7.0 1.0 0.9 13.7% 12.8%

PTBA BUY 0.8 4540 84.6 4827 5300 7.7 6.5 3.4 3.0 44.5% 46.5%

Average 7.4 6.8 2.1 1.8 28.3% 26.8%

Plantation

AALI BUY 0.4 11950 (9.1) 14262 15200 11.9 9.7 1.2 1.1 10.3% 11.8%

LSIP BUY 0.1 1300 (8.5) 1449 1420 11.5 11.0 1.0 1.0 8.7% 8.8%

TBLA BUY 0.1 975 (20.4) 1360 1500 5.5 4.5 1.1 1.0 20.7% 21.8%

SIMP HOLD 0.1 488 5.2 517 520 22.2 18.8 0.5 0.5 2.3% 2.7%

Average 12.8 11.0 1.0 0.9 10.5% 11.3%

Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg

Note: GIAA, INKP, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, MEDC, BRPT, INCO, DOID, TPIA report in USD.

Note: *: Under Review

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Riset Saham Harian

22 Oktober 2018

Global Data

Regional Indices Last Price Chg (Pts)

1D 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low

World 2,062 (2.14) (0.10) (1.30) 0.35 (6.26) (3.59) (1.95) 1.31 2,250 2,010

U.S. (S&P) 2,768 (1.00) (0.04) (1.50) 0.02 (5.53) (1.22) 3.52 7.48 2,941 2,533

U.S. (DOW) 25,444 64.89 0.26 (1.37) 0.41 (4.86) 1.54 2.93 9.07 26,952 23,202

Europe 3,211 (0.77) (0.02) (1.43) 0.51 (6.41) (7.20) (8.37) (10.94) 3,709 3,181

Emerging Market 971 0.57 0.06 (1.24) (0.02) (7.61) (9.21) (16.14) (13.24) 1,279 950

FTSE 100 7,050 22.81 0.32 (0.14) 0.77 (5.88) (8.19) (8.30) (6.29) 7,904 6,867

CAC 40 5,085 (32.13) (0.63) (1.71) (0.22) (7.45) (5.81) (4.29) (5.36) 5,657 5,038

Dax 11,554 (35.38) (0.31) (1.89) 0.26 (7.06) (8.02) (10.56) (11.06) 13,597 11,459

Indonesia 5,837 (7.95) (0.14) 0.63 1.40 (2.02) (0.60) (8.16) (1.56) 6,693 5,558

Japan 22,296 (236.56) (1.05) (2.39) 0.11 (6.60) (1.77) (2.06) 3.90 24,448 20,347

Australia 5,897 (42.49) (0.72) (0.71) 1.03 (4.80) (6.19) (2.77) (0.17) 6,374 5,725 Korea 2,144 (11.81) (0.55) (1.06) (0.03) (8.32) (6.32) (13.09) (13.86) 2,607 2,118 Singapore 3,063 (7.16) (0.23) 0.93 (0.22) (4.82) (7.14) (10.00) (8.33) 3,642 3,030

Malaysia 1,732 (5.87) (0.34) (0.27) 0.08 (4.34) (1.28) (3.60) (0.49) 1,896 1,658

Hong Kong 25,561 106.85 0.42 0.46 1.17 (8.56) (9.44) (14.57) (10.27) 33,484 25,090

China 2,550 64.05 2.58 0.16 (2.17) (8.83) (9.85) (22.88) (24.51) 3,587 2,449

Taiwan 9,919 (34.47) (0.35) (0.62) (1.26) (9.60) (9.26) (6.80) (7.55) 11,270 9,741 Thailand 1,668 (15.00) (0.89) (1.76) (0.89) (5.02) (0.19) (4.89) (1.46) 1,853 1,585

Philipines 7,152 10.27 0.14 2.35 2.10 (3.14) (3.35) (16.44) (15.07) 9,078 6,791

Monetary Indicators Last Chg (Pts)

JIBOR Overnight (%) 5.76 (0.02) 6.06 3.89

Foreign Reserves (US$Bn) 114.85 (2.61) (4.17) (11.79) (11.25) 131.98 114.85

Inflation Rate (yoy, %) 2.88 3.61 2.88

Gov Bond Yld (10yr, %) 8.66 0.08 8.90 6.09

US Fed Rate (%) 2.25 2.25 1.25

Exchange Rate (per USD) Last Price Chg (Pts)

Indonesia 15,187 (7.00) 0.05 0.11 0.12 (2.05) (4.69) (10.66) (10.98) 15,284 13,268

Japan 112.39 (0.16) 0.14 0.23 (0.55) 0.36 (0.93) 0.27 0.93 114.73 104.56

UK 1.31 (0.00) (0.16) (0.46) (0.74) (0.50) (0.35) (3.39) (1.08) 1.44 1.27

Euro 1.15 (0.00) (0.11) 0.00 (0.67) (2.10) (1.63) (4.20) (2.11) 1.26 1.13

China 6.93 (0.01) 0.12 (0.25) (0.10) (1.16) (2.22) (6.09) (4.55) 6.94 6.24

Commodity Indicators Last Price Chg (Pts)

Oil (WTI) 69.07 (0.05) (0.07) (0.97) (3.78) (2.42) (1.97) 14.32 34.19 76.90 51.55

CPO 2,224 (15.00) (0.67) (0.89) (1.29) 3.06 1.41 (11.15) (18.33) 2,857 2,137

Rubber 662.00 2.00 0.30 0.61 0.30 (2.07) (1.93) (9.62) (17.15) 787.00 610.50

Coal 111.15 0.60 0.54 3.11 3.35 (0.94) (4.18) 9.35 14.06 118.00 90.60

Iron Ore 69.11 0.83 1.22 2.20 2.64 7.26 16.82 (2.36) 12.89 76.88 57.85

Tin 19,185 149.00 0.78 (0.16) 0.38 1.43 (2.07) (4.53) (3.72) 22,104 18,662

Nickel 12,450 100.00 0.81 (1.15) (1.62) (0.48) (6.67) (2.43) 6.05 16,690 10,740

Copper 6,220 63.00 1.02 0.08 (1.30) 1.62 2.56 (14.17) (10.72) 7,348 5,773

Gold 1,229 2.50 0.20 0.30 0.06 2.67 (0.21) (5.96) (3.92) 1,366 1,160

Source: Bloomberg, SSI Research

Change (%) 1 Year

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DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia

Research Team

Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head of Equity Research, Strategy,

Banking, Consumer (Staple) [email protected] +6221 2854 8148

Ahmad Mikail Economist [email protected] +6221 2854 8396

William Mamudi, CMT Technical Analyst [email protected] +6221 2854 8382

Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA

Property, Construction, Cement, Toll Road, Aviation, Automotive, Mining Contractor, Cigarette, Healthcare

[email protected] +6221 2854 8144

Arandi Ariantara Oil and Gas, Chemical, Coal, Telco,

Telco Retail [email protected] +6221 2854 8392

Marlene Tanumihardja Consumer (Poultry, Retail, Small Cap),

Pulp and Paper, Media [email protected] +6221 2854 8387

Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Metal, Telco Infrastructure, Plantation,

Small Cap [email protected] +6221 2854 8339

Albertha Palma Research Associate [email protected] +6221 2854 8338

Private Wealth Management

Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8380 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] +6221 2854 8129 Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8399 Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8395 Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8325

Equity Sales Team

Kelvin Long Head of Equities [email protected] +6221 2854 8150

Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8146

Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8173

Online Trading Sales Team

Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] +6221 2854 8372

Wahyu Widodo Marketing [email protected] +6221 2854 8371

Aben Epapras Marketing [email protected] +6221 2854 8389