Fenomena Perubahan Iklim Global dan Dampaknya terhadap Perkotaan di Indonesia: dikaitkan dengan Energi Bersih

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Fenomena Perubahan Iklim Global dan

Dampaknya terhadap Perkotaan di

Indonesia: dikaitkan dengan Energi Bersih

Hidayat Pawitan dan Rizaldi Boer

Departemen Geofisika dan Meteorologi FMIPA – IPB

Kontak> hpawitan@ipb.ac.id

Lokakarya Peringatan Hari Sadar Energi Bersih 2011:

“Low Carbon City”, diselenggarakan oleh BPLHD

Provinsi DKI Jakarta bekerja sama dengan Kementerian

ESDM, Jakarta, 25 Mei 2011

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Pendahuluan

Memahami Fenomena Perubahan Iklim Global Dampak Perubahan Iklim terhadap

Perkotaan di Indonesia

Keterkaitan Dampak Perubahan iklim dan Energi Bersih

Penutup

Outline Presentasi:

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Pendahuluan

The earth’s atmosphere is warming:

oceans evaporate more water, and

warmer air holds 7% more water vapor

for each 1

o

C of warming. This extra

water vapor in the atmosphere returns

to earth as heavier rains and snows.

Global warming means more heat, but

also more wild and potentially

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Climate change and the

economic challenge

The noted meteorologist and mathematician

Edward Lorenz once reminded us that

climate is what you expect; weather is what

you get.

Brian Fagan might add that

climate change is what you expect; social and

economic collapse leading to violence and

massive suffering is what you may expect to

get

– even with the best planning

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Common threats: increase demands

for food and energy

• Population pressure, especially in

Java island, need to generate

substantial food and energy supply

• degraded natural resources, sea level rise

and increased extreme weather events

with floods and droughts

• decreased water availability and quality

• increased pollution and exposure to

water- and vector-borne diseases

• These management issues had been

adopted into the present Water Law

(Decree No.7/2004)

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PENDAHULUAN

• Beberapa pertanyaan perlu dijawab DALAM memahami

fenomena perubahan iklim global dan pengaruhnya terhadap pembangunan LOW CARBON SOCIETY

• Bagaimana memahami realita perubahan iklim global

dengan Identifikasi/deteksi penyebab dan sumber ketidak-pastian?

• APA ARTI PERUBAHAN IKLIM GLOBAL DAN PROYEKSI IKLIM

INDONESIA DI MASA MENDATANG?

• Seberapa ‘nyata’ perubahan iklim global

memberi dampak terhadap perkotaan di

Indonesia?

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The Paradoxes of CC

 limits to the greenhouse effect: positive

or negative feedbacks?

 It has been estimated that the earth has warmed by

about 1 o_{F over the last 100 years. However, studies}

have shown that most of that warming has occurred at night and during the coldest winter months.

 the surface temperature data using land- and ocean-based thermometers show a warming trend of 0.15

o_{C per decade. By contrast, weather balloon}

temperature data show a cooling trend of –0.07, 0.04, or –0.02 o_{C/decade, depending on which research}

group is analyzing which weather balloon data.

Recently corrected satellite data has produced a slight warming trend of +0.01 o_{C/decade for the period of}

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how CC science works

?

• sains



TO PREDICT AND TO MAKE GENERALIZATION from observation and using models

• models  TO SIMPLIFY THE REAL WORLD

(with lots of assumptions)

• model outputs: prescriptive vs prognostic

• scenarios

:

– business as usual – moderate

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Relative contributions to

Greenhouse effect change

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PROYEKSI PERUBAHAN IKLIM GLOBAL

• Global average water vapour concentration and precipitation, INCLUDING summer monsoon are projected to increase during the 21st century.

• At low latitudes there are both regional increases and

decreases of precipitation over land areas. Larger year to year variations in precipitation are very likely over most areas where an increase in mean precipitation is

projected.

• For a number extreme phenomena, climate models currently lack the spatial detail required to make

confident projections. Very small-scale phenomena, such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail and lightning, are not simulated in climate models.

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Memahami Iklim dan Perubahan Iklim

Perlu ‘detection and attribution’ dari karakteristik

iklim, termasuk dalam mengevaluasi perubahan

iklim

Perlu mengenali karakteristik iklim yang memberi

dampak pada hewan, manusia dan lingkungan

hidup

Apa dampak perubahan iklim terhadap

lingkungan perkotaan harus dipahami oleh pakar

berkompeten dalam bidangnya melalui kajian

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Dampak Perubahan Iklim Global

terhadap Perkotaan di Indonesia

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Global emissions of greenhouse gases come from a wide range of sources

Source: World Resources Institute. 2000 estimate.

Energy –

25.6 Gt 61%

Consuming fossil fuels

Land Use changes 7.6 Gt 18%

primarily

deforestation

Agriculture 5.6 Gt 14%

mostly from soils &

livestock Electricity &

Heat Generation Transport Industry Building &other energy related

All GHG in CO2 equivalent, 42 Gt CO₂e

Waste 3%

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Sumber : Peace & World Bank et al, 2007

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Sumber : Peace & World Bank et al, 2007

GREENHOUSE GASES EMISSION

Konsentrasi emisi CO2 Indonesia, No 3 (??)

(??)

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Gambar 2.

Perbandingan konsentrasi CO2 di stasiun GAW Koto Tabang - Mauna Loa & Rata-rata dunia (sumber BMKG, diproses oleh NOAA).

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2000 0 2000 Meters

Peta Penutupan Lahan DKI Jakarta Tahun 1972

690000 690000 695000 695000 700000 700000 705000 705000 710000 710000 715000 715000 9 2 9 5 0 0 0 9295000 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 930000 0 9 3 0 5 0 0 0 9305000 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 9310000 9 3 1 5 0 0 0 931500 0 9 3 2 0 0 0 0 9320000 9 3 2 5 0 0 0 9325000 KETERANGAN DANAU FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PERMUKIMAN RAW A/TAMBAK/LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI 2000 0 2000 Meters

690000 690000 695000 695000 700000 700000 705000 705000 710000 710000 715000 715000 9 2 9 5 0 0 0 9295000 9 3 0 0 00 0 93 00 0 0 0 9 3 0 5 0 0 0 9305000 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 931000 0 9 3 1 5 0 0 0 9315000 9 3 2 0 0 0 0 9320000 9 3 2 5 0 0 0 932500 0 KETERANGAN DANAU FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA RAW A/TAMBAK/LAUT SAWAH URBAN VEGETASI 2000 0 2000 Meters

690000 690000 695000 695000 700000 700000 705000 705000 710000 710000 715000 715000 9 2 9 5 0 0 0 92 9 5 0 0 0 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 93 0 0 0 0 0 9 3 0 5 0 0 0 9305 0 0 0 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 93 1 0 0 0 0 9 3 1 5 0 0 0 9315 0 0 0 9 3 2 0 0 0 0 93 2 0 0 0 0 9 3 2 5 0 0 0 932 5 0 0 0 KETERANGAN AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PERMUKIMAN RAWA/TAMBAK/LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI 2000 0 2000 Meters

690000 690000 695000 695000 700000 700000 705000 705000 710000 710000 715000 715000 9 2 9 5 0 0 0 9295 0 0 0 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 930 0 0 0 0 9 3 0 5 0 0 0 93 0 5 0 0 0 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 931 0 0 0 0 9 3 1 5 0 0 0 93 1 5 0 0 0 9 3 2 0 0 0 0 932 0 0 0 0 9 3 2 5 0 0 0 93 2 5 0 0 0 KETERANGAN AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PERMUKIMAN RAWA/TAMBAK/LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI 2000 0 2000 Meters

690000 690000 695000 695000 700000 700000 705000 705000 710000 710000 715000 715000 9 2 9 5 0 0 0 9295000 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 930000 0 9 3 0 5 0 0 0 9305000 9 3 1 0 0 0 0 931000 0 9 3 1 5 00 0 9315 0 0 0 9 3 2 0 0 0 0 9320000 9 3 2 5 00 0 9325 0 0 0 KETERANGAN AIR/SUNGAI FASILITAS UMUM LAHAN TERBUKA PERMUKIMAN RAW A/TAMBAK/LAUT SAWAH VEGETASI

PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN DI JAKARTA TAHUN 1972-2002 1972 1983 1993 1998 2002

Jakarta telah secara signifikan kehilangan daerah hijau, daerah resapan air, danau-danau kecil dan waduk, dan lain-lain akibat konversi guna lahan