Lampiran1. Keteranga n Variabel yang Digunakan dalam Model Subsidi
Harga Listrik
No
Notasi
Definisi Variabel
Satuan
A. Variabel Endoge n
1. PRODSDR
Tenaga Listrik Diproduksi Sendiri
GWh
2. QBBM
Konsumsi BBM
Kilo liter
3. QBTB
Konsumsi Batubara
Ton
4. QGAS
Konsumsi Gas Alam
MMSCF
5. PBBM
Harga BBM Dalam Negeri
Rp/liter
6. PBTB
Harga Batubara Dalam Negeri
Rp/kg
7. PGAS
Harga Gas Alam Dalam Negeri
Rp/MSCF
8. CBBM
Pengeluaran untuk Konsumsi BBM
Miliar Rp
9. CBTB
Pengeluaran untuk Konsumsi Batubara
Miliar Rp
10. CGAS
Pengeluaran untuk Konsumsi Gas Alam
Miliar Rp
11. TLBELI
Tenaga Listrik yang Dibeli
GWh
12. PRODTL
Total Prod uksi Tenaga Listrik
GWh
13. BOP
Total Biaya Operasional
Miliar Rp
14. BPP
Biaya Pokok P enyediaan Tenaga Listrik
Per kWh
Rp/kWh
15. CLISRT
Konsumsi Listrik oleh Rumah Tangga
GWh
16. CLISIND
Konsumsi Listrik oleh Industri
GWh
17. CLISOTH
Konsumsi Listrik oleh Pelanggan Lainnya
GWh
18. TLJUAL
Tenaga Listrik Terjua l
GWh
19. SUSUT
Tenaga Listrik yang Hilang atau Susut
GWh
20. SUBPRT
Subsidi Per kWh untuk Rumah Tangga
Rp/kWh
21. SUBPIND
Subsidi Per kWh untuk Industri
Rp/kWh
22. SUBPOTH
Subsidi Per kWh untuk Pelanggan Lainnya Rp/kWh
23. SUBRT
Subs idi Listrik untuk Rumah Tangga
Miliar Rp
24. SUBIN D
Subs idi Listrik untuk Industri
Miliar Rp
25. SUBOTH
Subs idi Listrik untuk Pelanggan Lainnya
Miliar Rp
26. SUBLSTR
Total Subsidi Listrik
Miliar Rp
27. HJTLRT
Harga Jual Tenaga Listrik untuk Rumah
Tangga
Rp/kWh
28. HJTLIND
Harga Jual Tenaga Listrik untuk I ndustri
Rp/kWh
29. HJTLO TH
Harga Jual Tenaga Listrik untuk Lainnya
Rp/kWh
30. AVHJTL
Rata-Rata Harga Jual Tenaga Listrik
Rp/kWh
31. PENPJK
Penerimaan Pajak
Miliar Rp
32. PENPEM
Total Penerimaan Pemerintah
Miliar Rp
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
No
Notasi
Definisi Variabel
Satuan
35. CONLIS
Pengeluaran Konsumsi Listrik
Miliar Rp
36. CONLAIN
Pengeluaran Konsumsi Lainnya
Miliar Rp
37. CONRT
Total Pengeluaran Rumah Tangga
Miliar Rp
38. INV
Nilai Investasi
Miliar Rp
39. EKSPOR
Nilai Ekspor
Miliar Rp
40. IMPOR
Nilai Impor
Miliar Rp
41. PDB
Produk Domestic Bruto
Miliar Rp
42. RPDB
Riil PDB
Miliar Rp
43. GROWTH
Laju Pertumbuhan Eko nomi
Persen
44. PDBKPT
PDB Per Kapita
Ribu Rp
45. KURS
Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar
Amerika Serikat
Rp/US$
46. IHK
Indeks Harga Konsumen
47. INFLASI
Inflasi
Persen
48. SKBG
Tingkat Suku Bunga
Persen
49. STK
Penawaran Tenaga Kerja
Ribu orang
50. DTK
Permintaan Tenaga Kerja
Ribu orang
51. UNEMPL
Jumlah Pengangguran
Ribu orang
52. RUPH
Upa h Riil
Ribu Rp
53. MISKOTA
Jumlah Penduduk Miskin K ota
Ribu orang
54. MISDESA
Jumlah Penduduk Miskin Desa
Ribu orang
55. PMISKIN
Jumlah Penduduk Miskin
Ribu orang
56. TMISKIN
Tingkat Kemiskinan
Persen
B. Variabel Eksoge n
1. CADEV
Cadangan Devisa Indo nesia
Miliar US$
2. CLISDR
Tenaga Listrik yang Diko nsumsi Sendiri
GWh
3. CRUTIN
Biaya Rutin
Miliar Rp
4. ICP
Indonesia Crude Oil Price (Harga
Minyak Mentah Indo nesia)
US$/barel
5, POP
Jumlah Penduduk Indo nesia
Ribu orang
6. PELRT
Jumlah Pelanggan Rumah Tangga
Ribu pelanggan
7. PELIND
Jumlah Pelanggan Industri
Ribu pelanggan
8. PELOTH
Jumlah Pelanggan Lainnya
Ribu pelanggan
9. PDBI
PDB Sektor Industri Pengolahan
Miliar Rp
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan
No
Notasi
Definisi Variabel
Satuan
B. Variabel Eksoge n
10. PDBL
PDB Selain Sektor Industri
Miliar Rp
11. PDBTB
Harga Batubara Dunia
US$/ton
12. PDGAS
Harga Gas Alam Dunia
US$/MMBTU
13. PENNPJK
Penerimaan Selain Pajak
Miliar Rp
15. SKBG
Suku Bunga
Persen
16. UANGBR
Uang Beredar
Miliar rupiah
17. D
9799
Dummy Krisis Ekonomi
Tahun 1997 –
1999 = 1,
lainnya 0
18. D
98
Dummy Krisis Ekonomi
Tahun 1998 = 1,
lainnya 0
19. D
Dummy Kebijaka n Perluasan Pelanggan
Bersubsidi
04
Tahun 2004 = 1,
lainnya 0
20. D
Dummy Kebijaka n Perluasan Pelanggan
Bersubsidi
05
Tahun 2005 = 1,
lainnya 0
21. D
Dummy Melonjaknya Harga Minyak
Mentah Dunia
08
Tahun 2008 = 1,
lainnya 0
22. D
09
Dummy Krisis Finansial Glob al
Tahun 2009 = 1,
lainnya 0
I. Blok Produksi Tenaga Listrik
A. Jumlah Produksi Tenaga Listrik
1. PRODSDR
t
= a
0
+ a
1
QBBM
t
+ a
2
QBTB
t
+ a
3
QGAS
t
+ a
4
PRODSDR
t-1
+ u
2. QBBM
1t
t
= b
0
+ b
1
PBBM
t
+ b
2
PRODSDR
t
+ b
3
D08 + b
4
QBBM
t-1
+ u
3. QBTB
2t
t
= c
0
+ c
1
PBTB
t
+ c
2
PRODSDR
t
+ c
3
PBBM
t
+ c
4
QBTB
t-1
+ u
4. QGAS
3t
t
= d
0
+ d
1
PGAS
t
+ d
2
PRODSDR
t
+ d
3
QBBM
t
+ d
4
QBTB
t
d
+
5
D9799 + u
5. PBBM
4t
t
= e
0
+ e
1
ICP
t
+ e
2
KURS
t
+ e
3
D08 + e
4
PBBM
t-1
+ u
6. PBTB
5t
t
= f
0
+ f
1
PDBTB
t
+ f
2
KURS
t
+ f
3
PBBM
t
+ f
4
PBTB
t-1
+ u
7. PGAS
6t
t
= g
0
+ g
1
KURS
t
+ g
2
PBBM
t
+ g
3
D98 + g
4
D09 + g
5
PGAS
t-1
+ u
8. CBBM
7t
t
= QBBM
t
* P BBM
9. CBTB
t
t
= QBTB
t
* PBTB
10 CGAS
t
t
= QGAS
t
* PGAS
11 TLBELI
t
t
= h
0
+ h
1
TLJUAL
t
+ h
2
SUSUT
t
+ h
3
D08+ h
4
TLBELI
t-1
+ u
12 PRODTL
8t
t
= PRODSDR
t
+ TLBELI
t
B. Biaya Operasional Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik
13. BOP
t
= i
0
+ i
1
TLBELI
t
+ i
2
CBBM
t
+ i
3
CBTB
t
+ i
4
CGAS
t
+ i
5
CLAIN
t
i
+
6
D08 + i
7
BOP
t-1
+ u
14. BPP
9t
t
= BOP
t
/ TLJUAL
t
II. Blok Kons umsi Tenaga Listrik
15. CLISRT
t
= j
0
+ j
1
HJTLRT
t
+ j
2
PELRT
t
+ j
3
PDBKPT
t
+ j
4
j
D98 +
5
CLISRT
t-1
+ u
16. CLISIND
10t
t
= k
0
+ k
1
HJTLIND
t
+ k
2
PDBI
t
+ k
3
PELIND
t
+ k
4
k
D98 +
5
D09 + k
6
CLISIND
t-1
+ u
17. CLISOTH
11t
t
= l
0
+ l
1
HJTLOTH
t
+ l
2
PDBL
t
+ l
3
PELOTH
t
+ l
4
l
D05 +
5
D08 + u
18. TLJUAL
12t
t
= CLISRT
t
+ CLISIND
t
+ CLISOTH
t
19. SUSUT
t
= PRODTL
t
– TLJUAL
t
– CLISDR
III. Blok Subsidi
20. SU BPRT
t
= m
0
+ m
1
PENPEM
t
+ m
2
D08 + m
3
SUBPRT
t-1
+ u
21. SUBPIND
13t
t
= n
0
+ n
1
PENPEM
t
+ n
2
D08 + n
3
SUBPIND
t-1
+ u
22. SUBPOTH
14t
t
= o
0
+ o
1
PENPEM
t
+ o
2
D08 + o
3
SUBPOTH
t-1
+ u
23. SUBRT
15t
t
= SUBPRT
t
* CLISRT
t
24. SUBIND
/ 1000
t
= SUBPIND
t
* CLISIND
t
25. SUBOTH
/ 1000
t
= SUBPOTH
t
* CLISOTH
t
26. SUBLSTR
/ 1000
t
= SUBRT
t
+ SUBIND
t
+ SUBOTH
t
IV. Blok Harga Jual Tenaga Listrik
27. HJTLRT
t
= (1 + m
t
) BPP
t
– SUBPRT
28. HJTLIND
t
t
= (1 + m
t
) BPP
t
– SUBPIND
29. HJTLOTH
t
t
= (1 + m
t
) BPP
t
– SUBPOTH
30.
t
t t t t t t t t tCLISOTH
CLISIND
CLISRT
CLISOTH
HJTLOTH
CLISIND
HJTLIND
CLISRT
HJTLRT
+
+
×
+
×
+
×
=
tAVHJTL
V. Blok Penerimaa n dan Penge luaran Pemerintah
a. Penerimaan Pe merintah
31. PENPJK
t
= p
0
+ p
1
PDB
t-1
+ p
2
INFLASI
t
+ p
3
D98 + p
4
PENPJK
t-1
+ u
32. PENPEM
16t
t
= PENPJK
t
+ PENNPJK
b. Belanja Pe merintah
t
33. BLJLAIN
t
= q
0
+ q
1
PENPEM
t
+ q
2
IHK
t
+ q
3
D09 + q
4
BLJNSUB
t-1
+ u
34. GOVEXP
17t
t
= SUBLSTR
t
+ BLJLAIN
t
VI. Blok Perekonomian
35. CONLIS
t
= HJTLRT
t
*CLISRT
t
+ HJTLIND
t
*CLISIND
t
HJTLOTH
+
t
*CLISOTH
36. CONLAIN
t
t
= r
0
+ r
1
PDBKPT
t
+ r
2
INFLASI
t
+ r
3
D98 + r
4
r
D08 +
5
CONLAIN
t-1
+ u
37. CONRT
18t
t
= CONLIS
t
+ CONLAIN
38. INV
t
t
= s
0
+ s
1
PDB
t
+ s
2
SKBG
t
+ s
3
D04 + s
4
INV
t-1
+ u
39. EKSPOR
19t
t
= t
0
+ t
1
KURS
t
+ t
2
D98 + t
3
EKSPOR
t-1
+ u
20t
42. RPDB
t
= PDB
t
* 100/IHK
43. GROWTH
t
t
= (RPDB
t
– RPDB
t-1
)/RPDB
t-1
44. PDBKPT
* 100
t
= PDB
t
/POP
45. KURS
t
t
= v
0
+ v
1
IHK
t
+ v
2
CADEV
t
+ v
3
D9799 + v
4
KURS
t-1
+ u
46. IHK
22t
t
= w
0
+ w
1
SKBG
t
+ w
2
UANGBR
t
+ w
3
AVHJTL
t
+ w
4
PBBM
t
w
+
5
KURS
t
+ w
6
D98 + w
7
D02 + w
8
D05 + w
9
IHK
t-1
+ u
47. INFLASI
23t
t
= ( IHK
t
– IHK
t-1
) / IHK
t-1
*
48. SKBG
100 %
t
= x
0
+ x
1
INFLASI
t
+ x
2
D9799 + x
3
SKBG
t-1
+ u
24t
VII. Blok Tenaga Kerja
49. STK
t
= y
0
+ y
1
RUPH
t
+ y
2
POP
t
+ y
3
DBLJLAIN
t
+ y
4
D04 + y
5
y
D09 +
6
STK
t-1
+ u
50. DTK
25t
t
= z
0
+ z
1
RUPH
t
+ z
2
PDB
t
+ z
3
D9799 + u
51. UNEMPL
26t
t
= STK
t
– DTK
t
52. RUPH
t
= aa
0
+ aa
1
STK
t-1
+ aa
2
DDTK
t
+ aa
3
D98 + aa
4
RUPH
t-1
+ u
27t
VIII. Blok Kemiskinan
53. MISKOTA
t
= ab
0
+ ab
1
INFLASI
t
+ ab
2
RUPH
t
+
ab
3
UNEMPL
t
ab
+
4
D9799 + u
54. MISDESA
28t
t
= ac
0
+ ac
1
INFLASI
t
+ ac
2
GOVEXP
t
+ ac
3
UNEMPL
t
ac
+
5
D9799 + ac
6
MISDESA
t-1
+ u
55. PMISKIN
29t
t
= MISKOTA
t
+ MISDESA
56. TMISKIN
t
Lampiran 3. Prog ram Estimasi Model Subsidi Harga Listrik mengg unakan
Metode 2SLS dan Pros edur SYSLIN denga n Program
SAS/ETS versi 9.1
options nodate nonumber;
LIBNAME IN 'C:\Disertasi';
data datapln;
set in.pln;
*/Creating Variable;
PRODSDR
= TLSDR+TLSEWA;
PRODTL
= PRODSDR+TLBELI;
TLJUAL
= CLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH;
SUSUT
= PRODTL-TLJUAL-CLISDR;
AVHJTL
= (HJTLRT*CLISRT + HJTLIND*CLISIND + HJTLOTH*CLISOTH)/
(CLISRT+CLISIND+CLISOTH);
BPP
= BOP/TLJUAL*1000;
HJTLRT
= BPP*(1+m/100)-SUBPRT;
HJTLIND
= BPP*(1+m/100)-SUBPIND;
HJTLOTH
= BPP*(1+m/100)-SUBPOTH;
PENPEM
= PENPJK+PENNPJK;
CLAIN
= CPLHR+CPGW+CSUSUT+COTH;
CBBM
= QBBM*PBBM/1000000;
CBTB
= QBTB*PBTB/1000000;
CGAS
= QGAS*PGAS/1000000;
PENPEM
= PENPJK + PENNPJK;
SUBRT
= SUBPRT * CLISRT/1000;
SUBIND
= SUBPIND * CLISIND/1000;
SUBOTH
= SUBPOTH * CLISOTH/1000;
SUBLSTR
= SUBRT + SUBIND + SUBOTH;
GOVEXP
= SUBLSTR + BLJLAIN;
CONLIS
= ((HJTLRT*CLISRT)+(HJTLIND*CLISIND)+
(HJTLOTH*CLISOTH))/1000;
CONRT
= CONLIS + CONLAIN;
PDB
= CONRT + INV + GOVEXP + EKSPOR - IMPOR;
RPDB
= PDB*100/IHK;
PDBKPT
= PDB/POP*1000;
PMISKIN
= MISKOTA + MISDESA;
TMISKIN
= (MISKOTA+MISDESA)/POP*100;
UNEMPL
= STK-DTK;
PDBL
= PDB-PDBI;
if tahun=1998 then D98=1;
else D98=0;
if tahun=2008 then D08=1;
else D08=0;
if tahun=2005 then D05=1;
else D05=0;
if tahun=2004 then D04=1;
else D04=0;
if tahun=2009 then D09=1;
else D09=0;
if tahun=1997 or tahun=1998 or tahun=1999 then D9799=1;
else D9799=0;
if tahun=2002 then D02=1;
else D02=0;
LPBBM
= lag(pbbm);
LPBTB
= lag(pbtb);
LPGAS
= lag(pgas);
LQBBM
= lag(qbbm);
LQBTB
= lag(qbtb);
LQGAS
= lag(qgas);
LQBBM
= lag(qbbm);
LQBTB
= lag(qbtb);
LQGAS
= lag(qgas);
LPDB
= lag(pdb);
LKURS
= lag(kurs);
LIHK
= lag(ihk);
LTLBELI
= lag(tlbeli);
LPRODSDR
= lag(prodsdr);
LMISKOTA
= lag(miskota);
LMISDESA
= lag(misdesa);
LSUBPRT
= lag(subprt);
LSUBPIND
= lag(subpind);
LSUBPOTH
= lag(subpoth);
LPENPJK
= lag(penpjk);
LSTK
= lag(stk);
LDTK
= lag(dtk);
LRUPH
= lag(ruph);
LRPDB
= lag(rpdb);
INFLASI
= (IHK-LIHK)/LIHK*100;
GROWTH
= (RPDB-LRPDB)/LRPDB*100;
DDTK
= dif(dtk);
DSTK
= dif(stk);
LBLJLAIN
= lag(bljlain);
DBLJLAIN
= dif(bljlain);
LCONLAIN
= lag(conlain);
LINV
= lag(inv);
LEKSPOR
= lag(ekspor);
LIMPOR
= lag(impor);
LSKBG
= lag(skbg);
run;
proc syslin 2sls data=datapln out=hasil;
endogenous prodsdr qbbm qbtb qgas pbbm pbtb pgas cbbm cbtb cgas
tlbeli prodtl bop bpp clisrt clisind clisoth tljual
susut subprt subpind subpoth subrt subind suboth
sublstr hjtlrt hjtlind hjtloth avhjtl penpjk penpem
bljlain govexp conlis conlain conrt inv kspor impor pdb
rpdb growth pdbkpt kurs ihk inflasi skbg stk dtk unempl
ruph miskota misdesa pmiskin tmiskin;
instruments pennpjk pop pdbi pdbl cplhr clain icp pdbtb pdgas
clisdr dbljlain cadev uangbr ddtk lclisrt lclisind
lclisoth lbop lpbbm lpbtb lpgas lqbbm lqbtb lqgas lkurs
lihk lmiskota lmisdesa lpenpjk lbljlain lstk ldtk lruph
lconlain linv lekspor limpor lskbg d98 d08 d05 d09
d9799 d02 d04;
*BLOK PRODUKSI;
*1. NILAI PRODUKSI;
prod_sdr
: model prodsdr
= qbbm qbtb qgas lprodsdr /dw;
q_bbm
: model qbbm
= pbbm prodsdr d08 lqbbm /dw;
q_btb
: model qbtb
= pbtb prodsdr pbbm lqbtb/dw;
q_gas
: model qgas
= pgas prodsdr qbbm qbtb d9799/dw;
p_bbm
: model pbbm
= icp kurs d08 lpbbm /dw;
p_btb
: model pbtb
= pdbtb kurs pbbm lpbtb/dw;
p_gas
: model pgas
= pdgas kurs pbbm d98 d09 lpgas /dw;
tl_beli
: model tlbeli
= tljual susut d08 ltlbeli /dw;
*2. BIAYA OPERASIONAL;
biaya_op
: model bop
= tlbeli cbbm cbtb cgas clain d08
lbop /dw;
*BLOK CLISUMSI;
kons_rt
: model clisrt
= hjtlrt pdbkpt pelrt d98 lclisrt
/dw;
kons_ind
: model clisind
= hjtlind pdbi pelind d98 d09
lclisind /dw;
kons_oth
: model clisoth
= hjtloth pdbl peloth d05 d08 /dw;
* BLOK KEUANGAN PEMERINTAH;
pen_pjk
: model penpjk = lpdb inflasi d98 lpenpjk/dw;
blj_lain
: model bljlain = penpem ihk d09 lbljlain/dw;
* BLOK SUBSIDI;
subprt
: model subprt
= penpem d08 lsubprt /dw;
subpind
: model subpind
= penpem d08 lsubpind /dw;
subpoth
: model subpoth
= penpem d08 lsubpoth /dw;
*BLOK INDIKATOR EKONOMI;
conlain
: model conlain = pdbkpt inflasi d98 d08
lconlain/dw;
investasi
: model inv
= pdb skbg d04 linv /dw;
ekspor
: model ekspor
= kurs d98 lekspor/dw;
impor
: model impor
= inflasi kurs pop d98 limpor/dw;
nil_tkr
: model kurs
= ihk cadev d9799 lkurs/dw;
ihk
: model ihk
= skbg uangbr avhjtl pbbm kurs d98
d05 d02 lihk/dw;
skbg
: model skbg
= inflasi d9799 lskbg/dw;
*BLOK TK;
sup_tk
: model stk = ruph pop dbljlain d04 d09 lstk/dw;
dem_tk
: model dtk = ruph pdb d9799 /dw;
umr
: model ruph = lstk ddtk d98 lruph /dw;
*BLOK KEMISKINAN;
mis_kota
: model miskota
= inflasi ruph unempl d9799 /dw;
mis_desa
: model misdesa
= inflasi govexp unempl d9799
lmisdesa /dw;
*PERSAMAAN IDENTITAS;
identity CBBM
= CBBM + 0;
identity CBTB
= CBTB + 0;
identity CGAS
= CGAS + 0;
identity PRODTL = PRODSDR + TLBELI;
identity SUBIND
= SUBIND + 0;
identity SUBOTH
= SUBOTH + 0;
identity SUBLSTR = SUBRT + SUBIND + SUBOTH;
identity HJTLRT
= HJTLRT + 0;
identity HJTLIND = HJTLIND + 0;
identity HJTLOTH = HJTLOTH + 0;
identity AVHJTL = AVHJTL + 0;
identity PENPEM
= PENPJK + PENNPJK;
identity GOVEXP = SUBLSTR + BLJLAIN;
identity CONLIS = CONLIS + 0;
identity CONRT
= CONLIS + CONLAIN;
identity PDB
= CONRT + INV + GOVEXP + EKSPOR - IMPOR;
identity GROWTH
= GROWTH + 0;
identity PDBKPT
= PDBKPT + 0;
identity INFLASI = INFLASI + 0;
identity UNEMPL = STK - DTK;
identity PMISKIN = MISKOTA + MISDESA;
identity TMISKIN = TMISKIN + 0;
Lampiran 4. Hasil Estimasi Model Subsidi Harga Listrik mengg unakan
Metode 2SLS dan Pros edur SYSLIN denga n Program
SAS/ETS versi 9.1
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PROD_SDR Dependent Variable PRODSDR Label prod list sdr Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 1.422E10 3.5541E9 688.31 <.0001 Error 15 77453435 5163562
Corrected Total 19 1.429E10
Root MSE 2272.34731 R-Square 0.99458 Dependent Mean 83319.8500 Adj R-Sq 0.99314 Coeff Var 2.72726
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 9012.079 3864.860 2.33 0.0341 Intercept QBBM 1 0.000248 0.000592 0.42 0.6814 kons BBM QBTB 1 0.001461 0.000641 2.28 0.0378 kons batu bara QGAS 1 0.023578 0.009956 2.37 0.0317 kons gas alam LPRODSDR 1 0.625091 0.134072 4.66 0.0003 lag prod list sdr Durbin-Watson 2.964902
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.56325 The SAS System
The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model Q_BBM Dependent Variable QBBM Label kons BBM Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 1.174E14 2.934E13 25.99 <.0001 Error 15 1.693E13 1.129E12
Corrected Total 19 1.343E14
Root MSE 1062363.20 R-Square 0.87393 Dependent Mean 6769845.53 Adj R-Sq 0.84031 Coeff Var 15.69258
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 35351.62 1715819 0.02 0.9838 Intercept PBBM 1 -59.6042 406.5272 -0.15 0.8854 harga bbm PRODSDR 1 18.00578 17.69056 1.02 0.3249 prod list sdr D08 1 942261.9 1675313 0.56 0.5821 2008
LQBBM 1 0.812856 0.251698 3.23 0.0056 lag kons BBM Durbin-Watson 1.384334
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.28658
Model Q_BTB Dependent Variable QBTB Label kons batu bara Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 7.341E14 1.835E14 306.41 <.0001 Error 15 8.984E12 5.989E11
Corrected Total 19 7.431E14
Root MSE 773904.637 R-Square 0.98791 Dependent Mean 13092044.9 Adj R-Sq 0.98469 Coeff Var 5.91126
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -2301871 956750.1 -2.41 0.0295 Intercept PBTB 1 -891.932 2241.920 -0.40 0.6964 harga batubara PRODSDR 1 105.1371 30.94884 3.40 0.0040 prod list sdr PBBM 1 148.7185 184.1099 0.81 0.4318 harga bbm
LQBTB 1 0.538798 0.174144 3.09 0.0074 lag kons batu bara Durbin-Watson 2.177113
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.14084
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model Q_GAS Dependent Variable QGAS Label kons gas alam Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 1.369E11 2.737E10 13.30 <.0001 Error 14 2.881E10 2.0578E9
Corrected Total 19 1.657E11
Root MSE 45362.9453 R-Square 0.82611 Dependent Mean 189791.025 Adj R-Sq 0.76400 Coeff Var 23.90152
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 7043.293 90292.91 0.08 0.9389 Intercept PGAS 1 -4.75730 2.406312 -1.98 0.0681 harga gas alam PRODSDR 1 8.081043 2.823738 2.86 0.0126 prod list sdr QBBM 1 -0.04389 0.009903 -4.43 0.0006 kons BBM QBTB 1 -0.00730 0.015428 -0.47 0.6436 kons batu bara D9799 1 -37568.6 32424.68 -1.16 0.2660 1997-1999 Durbin-Watson 2.72214
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.36128
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model P_BBM Dependent Variable PBBM Label harga bbm Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 1.0453E8 26132254 158.47 <.0001 Error 15 2473538 164902.5
Corrected Total 19 1.07E8
Root MSE 406.08189 R-Square 0.97688 Dependent Mean 2044.93329 Adj R-Sq 0.97072 Coeff Var 19.85795
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -988.933 245.8773 -4.02 0.0011 Intercept ICP 1 66.37429 9.231450 7.19 <.0001 harg my Indonesia KURS 1 0.024172 0.034226 0.71 0.4909 Rp/US$ D08 1 1089.309 540.0136 2.02 0.0619 2008 LPBBM 1 0.237759 0.088856 2.68 0.0173 lag harga bbm Durbin-Watson 2.559031 Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.2855
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model P_BTB Dependent Variable PBTB Label harga batubara Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 697552.4 174388.1 51.33 <.0001 Error 15 50965.11 3397.674
Corrected Total 19 748517.5
Root MSE 58.28957 R-Square 0.93191 Dependent Mean 226.38042 Adj R-Sq 0.91376 Coeff Var 25.74850
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -113.302 133.5845 -0.85 0.4097 Intercept
PDBTB 1 2.588217 3.164666 0.82 0.4262 harga dunia btbara KURS 1 0.010802 0.008323 1.30 0.2139 Rp/US$
PBBM 1 0.019297 0.011534 1.67 0.1150 harga bbm
LPBTB 1 0.601905 0.229380 2.62 0.0192 lag harga batubara Durbin-Watson 2.466728
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.29173
Model P_GAS Dependent Variable PGAS Label harga gas alam Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 6 2.2932E9 3.822E8 60.29 <.0001 Error 13 82412937 6339457
Corrected Total 19 2.3756E9
Root MSE 2517.82778 R-Square 0.96531 Dependent Mean 19398.4096 Adj R-Sq 0.94930 Coeff Var 12.97956
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -957.021 1991.330 -0.48 0.6388 Intercept PDGAS 1 763.6172 1224.532 0.62 0.5437 PDGAS KURS 1 0.107165 0.622349 0.17 0.8659 Rp/US$ PBBM 1 0.042218 1.146289 0.04 0.9712 harga bbm D98 1 19135.55 4232.322 4.52 0.0006 1998 D09 1 8717.081 3844.077 2.27 0.0410 2009
LPGAS 1 0.857225 0.174680 4.91 0.0003 lag harga gas alam Durbin-Watson 1.671566
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.033906
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model TL_BELI Dependent Variable TLBELI Label listrik beli Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 3.5304E9 8.8259E8 500.23 <.0001 Error 15 26465885 1764392
Corrected Total 19 3.5568E9
Root MSE 1328.30431 R-Square 0.99256 Dependent Mean 14704.9535 Adj R-Sq 0.99057 Coeff Var 9.03304
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -3780.01 1551.305 -2.44 0.0278 Intercept
TLJUAL 1 0.046545 0.033446 1.39 0.1843 total list terjual SUSUT 1 0.322728 0.153609 2.10 0.0530 susut tng listrik D08 1 -2239.34 1505.818 -1.49 0.1577 2008
LTLBELI 1 0.851006 0.080665 10.55 <.0001 lag list beli Durbin-Watson 2.006003
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.039
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model BIAYA_OP Dependent Variable BOP Label total biaya op Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 7 5.353E10 7.6473E9 3645.08 <.0001 Error 12 25175690 2097974
Corrected Total 19 5.356E10
Root MSE 1448.43852 R-Square 0.99953 Dependent Mean 52073.7501 Adj R-Sq 0.99926 Coeff Var 2.78151
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -937.226 697.7194 -1.34 0.2040 Intercept TLBELI 1 0.731174 0.198830 3.68 0.0032 listrik beli CBBM 1 0.969435 0.055410 17.50 <.0001 kons bbm CBTB 1 1.197797 0.447581 2.68 0.0202 kons batubara CGAS 1 1.583887 0.252380 6.28 <.0001 kons gas alam CLAIN 1 0.808336 0.170700 4.74 0.0005 peng lainnya D08 1 5086.999 2886.486 1.76 0.1034 2008
LBOP 1 0.001061 0.053862 0.02 0.9846 lag total biaya op Durbin-Watson 2.211091
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.11614
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONS_RT Dependent Variable CLISRT Label kons list ruta Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 4.2276E9 8.4552E8 2821.33 <.0001 Error 14 4195622 299687.3
Corrected Total 19 4.2318E9
Root MSE 547.43702 R-Square 0.99901 Dependent Mean 31513.3695 Adj R-Sq 0.99865 Coeff Var 1.73716
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -1009.26 922.8925 -1.09 0.2926 Intercept HJTLRT 1 -2.01447 2.019083 -1.00 0.3354 TDL untuk ruta PDBKPT 1 0.463104 0.110181 4.20 0.0009 PDB per kapita PELRT 1 0.536486 0.155016 3.46 0.0038 jm pel ruta D98 1 -922.694 615.1848 -1.50 0.1559 1998
LCLISRT 1 0.511289 0.160374 3.19 0.0066 lag kons list ruta Durbin-Watson 2.319974
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.16621
Model KONS_IND Dependent Variable CLISIND Label kons list industri Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 6 2.1039E9 3.5064E8 340.82 <.0001 Error 13 13374742 1028826
Corrected Total 19 2.1172E9
Root MSE 1014.31077 R-Square 0.99368 Dependent Mean 33901.0348 Adj R-Sq 0.99077 Coeff Var 2.99198
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -1958.22 3822.588 -0.51 0.6171 Intercept
HJTLIND 1 -4.82933 5.176824 -0.93 0.3679 TDL untuk industri PDBI 1 0.003827 0.001513 2.53 0.0251 PDB sek ind PELIND 1 158.1425 134.7769 1.17 0.2617 jm pel industri D98 1 -4582.81 1450.471 -3.16 0.0075 1998
D09 1 -4979.80 1210.197 -4.11 0.0012 2009
LCLISIND 1 0.900984 0.150516 5.99 <.0001 lag kons list ind Durbin-Watson 2.149988
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.09542
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONS_OTH Dependent Variable CLISOTH Label kons list pl lain Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 1.7988E9 3.5975E8 675.23 <.0001 Error 14 7458993 532785.2
Corrected Total 19 1.8062E9
Root MSE 729.92137 R-Square 0.99587 Dependent Mean 17043.1331 Adj R-Sq 0.99440 Coeff Var 4.28279
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -335.456 792.7118 -0.42 0.6786 Intercept HJTLOTH 1 -1.08605 3.005888 -0.36 0.7233 TDL u pel lain PDBL 1 0.003622 0.000382 9.47 <.0001 PDB sek lain PELOTH 1 6.654027 1.008347 6.60 <.0001 jm pel lainnya D05 1 1514.473 795.8041 1.90 0.0778 2005
D08 1 1082.157 796.4508 1.36 0.1957 2008 Durbin-Watson 1.534954
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.232058
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PEN_PJK Dependent Variable PENPJK Label pen dr pajak Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 1.015E12 2.538E11 241.87 <.0001 Error 15 1.574E10 1.0494E9
Corrected Total 19 1.031E12
Root MSE 32394.2716 R-Square 0.98473 Dependent Mean 237399.265 Adj R-Sq 0.98066 Coeff Var 13.64548
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -45462.8 22203.79 -2.05 0.0585 Intercept LPDB 1 0.101952 0.034275 2.97 0.0094 lag PDB INFLASI 1 4557.819 2222.092 2.05 0.0581 tk inflasi D98 1 -319936 156848.5 -2.04 0.0594 1998 LPENPJK 1 0.322897 0.275790 1.17 0.2599 lag pen pjk Durbin-Watson 2.13074
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.088
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model BLJ_LAIN Dependent Variable BLJLAIN Label blj sel sub list Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 4.418E11 1.104E11 2532.66 <.0001 Error 15 6.5413E8 43608490
Corrected Total 19 4.424E11
Root MSE 6603.67248 R-Square 0.99852 Dependent Mean 156498.097 Adj R-Sq 0.99813 Coeff Var 4.21965
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -4007.71 4328.064 -0.93 0.3691 Intercept PENPEM 1 0.036347 0.023956 1.52 0.1500 pen pemerintah IHK 1 193.8856 82.94364 2.34 0.0337 indeks harga kons D09 1 103212.5 7336.757 14.07 <.0001 2009
LBLJLAIN 1 0.924940 0.045025 20.54 <.0001 lag blj lain Durbin-Watson 2.584694
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.29662
Model SUBPRT Dependent Variable SUBPRT Label sub per kWh u ruta Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 753153.7 251051.2 77.05 <.0001 Error 16 52134.57 3258.411
Corrected Total 19 805288.3
Root MSE 57.08249 R-Square 0.93526 Dependent Mean 153.44442 Adj R-Sq 0.92312 Coeff Var 37.20076
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -30.6897 21.47345 -1.43 0.1722 Intercept PENPEM 1 0.000438 0.000101 4.31 0.0005 pen pemerintah D08 1 189.6783 70.65610 2.68 0.0163 2008
LSUBPRT 1 0.198539 0.155476 1.28 0.2198 lag sub per kWh u ruta Durbin-Watson 1.666554
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.163421
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model SUBPIND Dependent Variable SUBPIND Label sub per kWh u ind Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 637923.9 212641.3 99.34 <.0001 Error 16 34250.25 2140.641
Corrected Total 19 672174.2
Root MSE 46.26706 R-Square 0.94905 Dependent Mean 128.64674 Adj R-Sq 0.93949 Coeff Var 35.96442
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -39.8937 17.48892 -2.28 0.0366 Intercept PENPEM 1 0.000421 0.000077 5.48 <.0001 pen pemerintah D08 1 209.7906 56.88703 3.69 0.0020 2008
LSUBPIND 1 0.134340 0.130269 1.03 0.3178 lag sub per kWh u ind Durbin-Watson 2.091138
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.04808
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model SUBPOTH Dependent Variable SUBPOTH Label sub per kWh u pel lain Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 406323.8 135441.3 61.57 <.0001 Error 16 35194.17 2199.635
Corrected Total 19 441518.0
Root MSE 46.90027 R-Square 0.92029 Dependent Mean 17.38400 Adj R-Sq 0.90534 Coeff Var 269.78990
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -104.686 25.08724 -4.17 0.0007 Intercept PENPEM 1 0.000327 0.000072 4.57 0.0003 pen pemerintah D08 1 202.1526 56.00976 3.61 0.0024 2008
LSUBPOTH 1 0.110361 0.146312 0.75 0.4616 lag sub per kWh u lain Durbin-Watson 1.67453
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.138067
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model CONLAIN Dependent Variable CONLAIN Label kons ruta sel list Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 2.211E13 4.421E12 1365.05 <.0001 Error 14 4.534E10 3.2389E9
Corrected Total 19 2.215E13
Root MSE 56911.4701 R-Square 0.99795 Dependent Mean 1237937.52 Adj R-Sq 0.99722 Coeff Var 4.59728
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -13586.9 41899.65 -0.32 0.7505 Intercept PDBKPT 1 110.0489 57.14134 1.93 0.0747 PDB per kapita INFLASI 1 -26.5894 4225.152 -0.01 0.9951 tk inflasi D98 1 54503.53 280769.4 0.19 0.8489 1998 D08 1 133465.5 65363.87 2.04 0.0605 2008
LCONLAIN 1 0.190218 0.481695 0.39 0.6989 lag kons lain Durbin-Watson 1.558858
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.157886
Model INVESTAS Dependent Variable INV Label INV Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 6.396E12 1.599E12 513.83 <.0001 Error 15 4.668E10 3.1119E9
Corrected Total 19 6.443E12
Root MSE 55784.7511 R-Square 0.99275 Dependent Mean 553245.227 Adj R-Sq 0.99082 Coeff Var 10.08319
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 49424.32 49992.16 0.99 0.3385 Intercept PDB 1 0.072185 0.035463 2.04 0.0599 prod dom bruto SKBG 1 -3763.54 2159.890 -1.74 0.1019 suku bunga D04 1 -118044 59815.43 -1.97 0.0672 2004
LINV 1 0.917795 0.139370 6.59 <.0001 lag investasi Durbin-Watson 2.15814
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.09559
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR Dependent Variable EKSPOR Label nilai ekspor Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 4.487E12 1.496E12 126.82 <.0001 Error 16 1.887E11 1.179E10
Corrected Total 19 4.676E12
Root MSE 108598.698 R-Square 0.95964 Dependent Mean 619228.665 Adj R-Sq 0.95208 Coeff Var 17.53774
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -26942.0 58093.72 -0.46 0.6491 Intercept KURS 1 13.10376 12.66881 1.03 0.3164 Rp/US$ D98 1 253373.3 122246.6 2.07 0.0547 1998 LEKSPOR 1 0.998771 0.097930 10.20 <.0001 lag ekspor Durbin-Watson 2.64545
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.37219
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR Dependent Variable IMPOR Label IMPOR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 3.718E12 7.436E11 57.03 <.0001 Error 14 1.825E11 1.304E10
Corrected Total 19 3.901E12
Root MSE 114183.096 R-Square 0.95320 Dependent Mean 538494.675 Adj R-Sq 0.93649 Coeff Var 21.20413
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -2641834 1294399 -2.04 0.0606 Intercept INFLASI 1 19088.89 8266.869 2.31 0.0367 tk inflasi KURS 1 -21.6170 18.65944 -1.16 0.2660 Rp/US$ POP 1 13.55890 7.126591 1.90 0.0779 jm penduduk D98 1 -1107300 571956.2 -1.94 0.0733 1998 LIMPOR 1 0.737583 0.212300 3.47 0.0037 lag impor Durbin-Watson 2.374911
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.24298
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model NIL_TKR Dependent Variable KURS Label Rp/US$ Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 2.1077E8 52693249 43.78 <.0001 Error 15 18055342 1203689
Corrected Total 19 2.2883E8
Root MSE 1097.12784 R-Square 0.92110 Dependent Mean 6959.00000 Adj R-Sq 0.90006 Coeff Var 15.76560
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 714.7607 561.5794 1.27 0.2225 Intercept IHK 1 33.14076 16.42903 2.02 0.0619 indeks harga kons CADEV 1 -0.06175 0.032571 -1.90 0.0774 cadangan devisa D9799 1 1467.304 707.3035 2.07 0.0557 1997-1999 LKURS 1 0.665105 0.180595 3.68 0.0022 lag Rp/US$ Durbin-Watson 2.416601
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.21295
Model IHK Dependent Variable IHK Label indeks harga kons Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 9 81592.88 9065.875 2389.11 <.0001 Error 10 37.94665 3.794665
Corrected Total 19 81630.82
Root MSE 1.94799 R-Square 0.99954 Dependent Mean 111.09497 Adj R-Sq 0.99912 Coeff Var 1.75345
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 5.563770 3.502250 1.59 0.1432 Intercept SKBG 1 -0.03242 0.166492 -0.19 0.8495 suku bunga UANGBR 1 0.016741 0.005972 2.80 0.0187 uang beredar AVHJTL 1 0.020046 0.014346 1.40 0.1925 rata-rata harga jual PBBM 1 0.002428 0.000532 4.57 0.0010 harga bbm
KURS 1 0.002050 0.000375 5.47 0.0003 Rp/US$ D98 1 23.00031 5.693268 4.04 0.0024 1998 D05 1 12.93938 2.260037 5.73 0.0002 2005 D02 1 4.273269 2.210341 1.93 0.0820 2002 LIHK 1 0.614920 0.111328 5.52 0.0003 lag IHK Durbin-Watson 2.247011
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.18312
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model SKBG Dependent Variable SKBG Label suku bunga Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 998.8893 332.9631 23.29 <.0001 Error 16 228.7116 14.29447
Corrected Total 19 1227.601
Root MSE 3.78080 R-Square 0.81369 Dependent Mean 14.88800 Adj R-Sq 0.77876 Coeff Var 25.39497
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 2.807472 2.344782 1.20 0.2486 Intercept INFLASI 1 0.290601 0.066540 4.37 0.0005 tk inflasi D9799 1 3.105602 3.458889 0.90 0.3826 1997-1999 LSKBG 1 0.531885 0.140224 3.79 0.0016 lag suku bunga Durbin-Watson 1.205912
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.234993
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model SUP_TK Dependent Variable STK Label supp TK Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 6 2.5022E9 4.1703E8 201.28 <.0001 Error 13 26934487 2071884
Corrected Total 19 2.5291E9
Root MSE 1439.40391 R-Square 0.98935 Dependent Mean 97691.5601 Adj R-Sq 0.98443 Coeff Var 1.47342
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 -35064.0 21130.04 -1.66 0.1209 Intercept RUPH 1 4.919688 3.796366 1.30 0.2175 upah riil POP 1 0.462834 0.261332 1.77 0.1000 jm penduduk DBLJLAIN 1 0.014904 0.052786 0.28 0.7821 selisih blj lain D04 1 -1837.59 1981.529 -0.93 0.3706 2004 D09 1 -2603.15 5845.395 -0.45 0.6634 2009 LSTK 1 0.347697 0.350796 0.99 0.3397 lag supp TK Durbin-Watson 2.009544 Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.01301
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEM_TK Dependent Variable DTK Label dem TK Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 3 1.4162E9 4.7206E8 69.25 <.0001 Error 16 1.0906E8 6816339
Corrected Total 19 1.5253E9
Root MSE 2610.81190 R-Square 0.92850 Dependent Mean 90614.6104 Adj R-Sq 0.91509 Coeff Var 2.88123
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 86066.35 4117.284 20.90 <.0001 Intercept RUPH 1 -8.62850 6.120316 -1.41 0.1777 upah riil PDB 1 0.004586 0.000332 13.81 <.0001 prod dom bruto D9799 1 3177.572 1698.668 1.87 0.0798 1997-1999 Durbin-Watson 0.937812
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.389251
Model UPAH Dependent Variable RUPH Label upah riil Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 152287.7 38071.92 16.66 <.0001 Error 15 34273.11 2284.874
Corrected Total 19 186560.8
Root MSE 47.80036 R-Square 0.81629 Dependent Mean 634.37747 Adj R-Sq 0.76730 Coeff Var 7.53500
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 263.2230 133.7949 1.97 0.0679 Intercept LSTK 1 -0.00167 0.000994 -1.68 0.1136 lag supp TK DDTK 1 0.003455 0.006036 0.57 0.5756 selish dem TK D98 1 -297.811 57.34981 -5.19 0.0001 1998
LRUPH 1 0.865321 0.125850 6.88 <.0001 lag upah riil Durbin-Watson 2.080801
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.12683
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model MIS_KOTA Dependent Variable MISKOTA Label jm pend miskin kota Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 4 97305171 24326293 14.12 <.0001 Error 15 25838381 1722559
Corrected Total 19 1.2314E8
Root MSE 1312.46284 R-Square 0.79018 Dependent Mean 11811.8089 Adj R-Sq 0.73422 Coeff Var 11.11145
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 10198.97 2694.021 3.79 0.0018 Intercept INFLASI 1 33.65109 23.45146 1.43 0.1718 tk inflasi RUPH 1 -3.89511 3.463192 -1.12 0.2784 upah riil UNEMPL 1 0.430785 0.107619 4.00 0.0012 tk pengangguran D9799 1 4274.266 968.2795 4.41 0.0005 1997-1999 Durbin-Watson 2.391084
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.19787
The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model MIS_DESA Dependent Variable MISDESA Label jm pend miskin desa Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean
Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr > F Model 5 3.3325E8 66650336 23.14 <.0001 Error 14 40322300 2880164
Corrected Total 19 3.7357E8
Root MSE 1697.10468 R-Square 0.89206 Dependent Mean 23809.3511 Adj R-Sq 0.85351 Coeff Var 7.12789
Parameter Estimates
Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr > |t| Label Intercept 1 8359.462 2279.957 3.67 0.0025 Intercept INFLASI 1 25.74496 28.46146 0.90 0.3810 tk inflasi GOVEXP 1 -0.00616 0.003101 -1.99 0.0668 peng pem UNEMPL 1 0.435392 0.202403 2.15 0.0494 tk pengangguran D9799 1 4623.463 1421.270 3.25 0.0058 1997-1999
LMISDESA 1 0.524380 0.118994 4.41 0.0006 lag jml miskin desa Durbin-Watson 2.555569
Number of Observations 20 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.29591
