Bagian I
Economic planning
• Economic planning A component of public policy that
controls economic activity. It can involve the use of direct controls, such as rationing and price, rent, and wage limits, or indirect controls, such as monetary and fiscal policy.
(Oxford Dictionary of Economics)
• Economic planning the process by which key economic
decisions are made or influenced by central governments. It contrasts with the laissez-faire approach that, in its purest form, eschews any attempt to guide the economy, relying instead on market forces to determine the speed, direction, and nature of economic evolution.
Economic development
• Economic development An economic transformation of a
country or a region that leads to the improvement of the well-being and economic capabilities of its residents. (Oxford Dictionary of Economics)
• Economic development. Progress in an economy, or the
qualitative measure of this. Economic development usually refers to the adoption of new technologies, transition from agriculture-based to industry-based economy, and general improvement in living standards.
Development economics
• Development economics. The branch of economics devoted
to the understanding of the process of economic
development. Development economists are particularly
concerned with policies to raise the standard of living in less developed countries. (Oxford Dictionary of Economics)
• Development economics. A branch of economics that
focuses on improving the economies of developing countries. Development economics considers how to promote
economic growth by improving factors such as health,
education, working conditions, domestic and international policies, and market conditions in developing countries. It examines both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors relating to the structure of a developing economy and how that economy can create effective domestic and international growth. (
Economic growth is far below the
government's target
2015 2016* 2017** 2018** 2019** Average 2015-19 RPJM target 5.5 6.6 7.1 7.5 8.0 6.9Actual & projection 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.9 5.2
Difference -0.6 -1.6 -2.1 -2.1 -2.1 -1.7
* Estimate ** Projection
Bagian II
IMF raises global growth forecasts, gaining
momentum—for now
* Projection.
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2014 and October 2016; and World Economic Outlook Update, July 2017.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* World GDP growth 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.5 3.6 Advanced economies 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.7 2.0 1.9 - United States 2.2 2.4 2.6 1.6 2.1 2.1 - Euro area -0.4 0.9 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.7 - Japan 1.6 0.0 1.2 1.0 1.3 0.6 Developing economies 5.0 4.6 4.2 4.1 4.6 4.8 - China 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.4 - India 6.9 7.3 7.9 6.8 7.2 7.7 - Asean-5 5.1 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 Indonesia 5.6 5.0 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.3
World trade volume growth 3.3 3.4 2.7 2.2 4.0 3.9
IMF: “…“ the global economic landscape started to shift in the second half of 2016.
Developments since last summer indicate somewhat greater growth momentum coming into the new year in a number of important economies.”
Turning point?
Source: https://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2017/03/14/maintaining-the-positive-momentum-of-the-global-economy/
• Global manufacturing has been strengthening since last summer, along with a pickup in shipment and trade.
• Emerging and developing economies, led by China and India, continue to contribute more than three-quarters of total global GDP growth in 2017. Adding to this is a projected normalization of conditions in Brazil and Russia, which have been facing deep recessions.
• stronger-than-expected
economic activity in the euro area, the United Kingdom, and Japan.
Pola pertumbuhan Indonesia vs dunia
Sources: BPS_Statistics Indonesia and IMF
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 Indonesia World
Bagian III
Kinerja Perekonomian Indonesia Melemah:
Perlu Energi Tambahan dan Darah Segar
The rise and decline of Indonesian economy:
GDP growth 1961-2017 (%)
6.1 -2.3 1.1 12.0 9.8 6.2 6.0 9.2 1.1 8.5 3.5 9.1 8.4 -13.1 5.7 6.3 4.6 6.4 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 19 61 19 62 19 63 19 64 19 65 19 66 19 67 19 68 19 69 19 70 19 71 19 72 19 73 19 74 19 75 19 76 19 77 19 78 19 79 19 80 19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 * The fall of Old Order Pertamina crisis Oil price collapseEconomic crisis and the end of New
Order/Soeharto era Global financial crisis Trendline-polynomial * First semester.
The declining trend of economic growth from
6% to 5%
* First semester.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 6.4 6.2 6.1 5.6 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 GDP growth, year-on-year
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia..
Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %
4.5 4.14.3 5.6 5.9 6.3 5.8 6.8 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.16.0 5.8 5.65.7 5.1 5.0 4.95.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 Q 1 -0 9 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q 1 -1 0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q 1 -1 1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q 1 -1 2 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q 1 -1 3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q 1 -1 4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q 1 -1 5 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q 1 -1 6 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q 1 -1 7 Q2
The second quarter of 2016 was a turning
point? Not yet!!!
Economic growth by island: Kalimantan and
Sumetera suffered the most
2015 : 3.5% 2016 : 4.3% 2017*: 4.1% Share : 21.7% 2015 : 1.3% 2016 : 2.% 2017*: 4.4% Share: 8.2% 2015 : 8.2% 2016 : 7.4% 2017*: 6.5% Share : 6.1% 2015 : 5.5% 2016 : 5.6% 2017*: 5.4% Share : 58.7% 2015 : 10.3%2016 : 5.9% 2017*: 3.1% Share : 3.1% 2015 : 6.6% 2016 : 7.5% 2017*: 4.5% Share: 2.3% * First semester.
Analogi perekonomian dengan anatomi
tubuh manusia
Menjadi juara: asupan harus bermutu, kerja
keras, dan disiplin
Pengalaman pribadi: ikut lomba marathon
tanpa latihan dan persiapan memadai
Credit penetration in Indonesia is still very low
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
46.7 53.9 59.1 59.7 76.7 108.7 121.1 128.3 144.8 173.4 179.0 194.4 Indonesia Cambodia Philippines Bangladesh India Brazil Singapore Vietnam Malaysia Thailand South Africa China
Domestic credit provided by financial sector (% of GDP), 2015 39.1 41.8 43.9 52.6 63.1 67.9 111.9 125.2 129.7 149.2 151.3 153.3 Indonesia Philippines Bangladesh India Cambodia Brazil Vietnam Malaysia Singapore South Africa Thailand China
Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP), 2015
Pada tahun 1990 di Indonesia
* 2003
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators.
Stock market capitalization
[]* 35.1 16.3 31.1 48.5 32 24 124.7 159.5 154.2 27 28 41 72 74 82 88 129 219 234 Vietnam Brazil Indonesia India China Philippines Thailand Malaysia Singapore South Africa
Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP)
Source: Asian Development Bank, Asia Bond Monitor, November 2016.
Size of local currency bonds market: Indonesia is
still lagging behind in the long-term financing
208 56 52 45 57 43 45 46 28 23 15 16 80 45 33 20 33 25 20 6 1 2 0 50 100 150 200 250 Japa n Kore a Mal aysia Singa pore Thai land Hong Kong Emer ging E ast A sia Chin a Philip pine s Viet nam Indo nesia
Corporate bonds Government bonds
Selected top-30 merchandise exporters
2015 (2010) Growth (%) Manufactures exports as % of Rank Country 2015 2010 2015 2010 2010-15 total exports, 20151 (1) China 2,275 1,578 13.8 10.4 44.2 94.3
2 (2) United States 1,505 1,278 9.1 8.4 17.8 64.0 3 (3) Germany 1,329 1,269 8.1 8.3 4.7 84.1
4 (4) Japan 625 770 3.8 5.1 -18.8 88.0 6 (7) Korea, Republic of 527 466 3.2 3.1 13.1 89.6 7 (11) Hong Kong, China 511 401 3.1 2.6 27.4 65.7 14 (14) Singapore 351 352 2.1 2.3 -0.3 77.0 17 (16) Chinese Taipei 285 275 1.7 1.8 3.6 99.0 19 (20) India 267 216 1.6 1.4 23.6 70.6 20 (19) United Arab Emirates 265 235 1.6 1.5 12.8 7.5
21 (25) Thailand 214 195 1.3 1.3 9.7 77.8 22 (17) Saudi Arabia 202 254 1.2 1.7 -20.5 18.4 23 (23) Malaysia 200 199 1.2 1.3 0.5 66.9 25 (22) Brazil 191 202 1.2 1.3 -5.4 38.1 27 (39) Viet Nam 162 72 1.0 0.5 125.0 76.3 30 (27) Indonesia 150 158 0.9 1.0 -5.1 40.9
Value (Billion US$) Share (%)
Selected top-30 merchandise importers
2015 (2010) Growth (%) Manufactures imports as % of Rank Country 2015 2010 2015 2010 2010-15 total imports, 20151 (1) United States 2,308 1,968 13.8 12.8 17.3 78.9
2 (2) China 1,682 1,395 10.1 9.1 20.6 61.7
3 (3) Germany 1,050 1,067 6.3 6.9 -1.6 72.6
4 (4) Japan 648 693 3.9 4.5 -6.5 59.9 7 (9) Hong Kong, China 559 442 3.3 2.9 26.5 91.2 9 (10) Korea, Republic of 436 425 2.6 2.8 2.6 62.1 13 (13) India 392 323 2.3 2.1 21.4 52.7 16 (15) Singapore 297 311 1.8 2.0 -4.5 70.1 18 (17) Chinese Taipei 238 251 1.4 1.6 -5.2 n.a. 19 (25) United Arab Emirates 230 170 1.4 1.1 35.3 74.8
22 (22) Thailand 203 182 1.2 1.2 11.5 72.2 25 (20) Brazil 179 191 1.1 1.2 -6.3 75.9 26 (26) Malaysia 176 165 1.1 1.1 6.7 70.9 27 (31) Saudi Arabia 172 107 1.0 0.7 60.7 80.7 28 (34) Viet Nam 166 85 1.0 0.6 95.3 76.6 30 (29) Indonesia 143 132 0.9 0.9 8.3 58.9
Value (Billion US$) Share (%)
Indonesia has actively used restrictive trade and
investment measures
R e f o r m i n g a m i d u n c e r t a i n t y I n d o n e s i a E c o n o m i c Q u a r t e r l y
D e c e m b e r 2 0 1 5 T H E W O R L D B A N K | B A N K D U N I A
3 5 and materials. The level of flexibility, however, differs and the chapters on
intellectual property, state-owned enterprises and government procurement allow for more limited exceptions. Those are some of the areas in which Indonesia may need to implement more sweeping changes in case of joining. However, to the
extent that the decision to join the TPP is predicated on the desire to integrate with a large trading bloc, the utilization of such implementation flexibility may well be only temporary.
Finally, the TPP may restrict in some ways the room for future economic policy-making
In addition to its impact on the regulatory status quo, the TPP text is likely to limit in some ways the freedom of future
economic policy-making. The agreement affords
countries little flexibility to make laws and regulations more restrictive towards
other member countries. As a result, the TPP provides the benefit of more
certainty in the direction of future economic policies. This limitation could be particularly important for Indonesia, which is the most active user of
restrictive trade and
investment measures among South East Asian comparators (Figure 28). On the other hand, the cost of this TPP-imposed limitation would be the loss of some economic policy space.
Figure 28: Indonesia has actively used restrictive trade and investment measures
(number of restrictive measures on trade and investments passed and implemented June 2009-to date, select South East Asian countries)
Source: Global Trade Alert (accessed 13/11/2015); World Bank staff calculations 0 50 100 150 200 250 Passed Implemented
Bagian IV
Transformasi Struktural: Dominasi Sektor Jasa
Terlalu Cepat?
GDP growth by sector
* First semester; excluding taxes minus subsidies.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Sectors 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1-17 Q2-17
Share 2017*
Agriculture, forestry & fishery 4.59 4.20 4.24 3.77 3.25 7.12 3.33 13.76 Mining and Quarrying 3.02 2.53 0.43 -3.42 1.06 -0.64 2.24 7.65 Manufacturing industry 5.62 4.37 4.64 4.33 4.29 4.24 3.54 20.37 Electricity and gas 10.06 5.23 5.90 0.90 5.39 1.60 -2.53 1.19 Water, waste management, cesspit and recycling 3.34 3.32 5.24 7.07 3.60 4.39 3.67 0.07 Construction 6.56 6.11 6.97 6.36 5.22 5.95 6.96 10.17 Wholesale & retail trade, cars & motorcycles reparations 5.40 4.81 5.18 2.59 3.93 4.96 3.78 13.13 Transportation and warehousing 7.11 6.97 7.36 6.68 7.74 8.03 8.37 5.24 Accommodation, food and beverages 6.64 6.80 5.77 4.31 4.94 4.68 5.07 2.87 Information and communication 12.28 10.39 10.12 9.69 8.87 9.13 10.88 3.81 Finance and insurance 9.54 8.76 4.68 8.59 8.90 5.99 5.94 4.25 Real estate 7.41 6.54 5.00 4.11 4.30 3.67 3.86 2.82 Business services 7.44 7.91 9.81 7.69 7.36 6.80 8.14 1.75 Public adm., defense, and compulsory social security 2.13 2.56 2.38 4.63 3.19 0.22 -0.03 3.59 Education 8.22 7.44 5.47 7.33 3.84 4.09 0.90 3.18 Health and social activities 7.97 7.96 7.96 6.68 5.00 7.10 6.40 1.07 Other services 5.76 6.40 8.93 8.08 7.80 8.01 8.63 1.76
The service sectors have dominated the
Indonesian economy: too early?
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and World Bank
55 46 41 45 54 59
Economic structure of Indonesia: tradables vs. non-tradables (% of GDP) Tradables Non-tradables 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Economic structure of China: good-producing sectors and
service sertors (% of GDP)
Good-producing sectors Services
Indonesia’s services trade restrictiveness index*
* The indices take values between zero and one, with one being the most restrictive.
Ten out of twelve service sectors have excess
demand, the other two have excess supply
Excess supply, percent, LHS; 100 percent RHS
Note: Until 2009 based on GDP 2000 Serie, since 2010 based on GDP 2010 serie. * First quarter.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Manufacturing matters: the share of
manufacturing industry continued to decline
12.0 29.0 27.8 22.0 20.51 20.47 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 17 *
Manufacturing value added as percent of GDP
P er ce n t o f G DP
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
GDP and manufacturing growth
5.0 4.3 7.5 7.0 5.5 5.6 5.1 4.4 4 5 6 7 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 percent GDP Total Manufacturing, Total
Non-oil & gas manufacturing
Trade deficit: manufacturing products
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
-130 -110 -90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Imports Exports Surplus (deficit)
U S$ b illi on s
Trade deficit: food products
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Trade account of food (SITC 0)
2000-2016, US$ billions
Skyrocketing fuel consumption, the production slump, making imports increasingly undermined the economy
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
Oil production: A
mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in liquid
phase in natural
underground reservoirs and remains liquid at atmospheric pressure after passing
through surface separating facilities.
Oil consumption: inland
demand plus aviation and marine bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of fuel ethanol and biodiesel is also included.
1,398 (Exports)
-789 (Imports)
Bagian V
Domestic Demand under Pressure, but the
Purchasing Power does not Decrease
Daya beli masyarakat tidak turun!!!
• Tidak ada kejadian luar biasa yang menyebabkan daya beli masyarakat secara nasional mengalami penurunan.
• Penurunan omzet atau laba beberapa outlet pasar modern tidak bisa dijadikan acuan terjadinya penurunan daya beli masyarakat.
• Begitu banyak ragam barang dan jasa serta berbagai kelompok pendapatan. Sangat boleh jadi penjualan beberapa produk turun dan daya beli kelompok pendapatan tertentu juga turun. Tetapi, secara keseluruhan naik, yang tercermin dari peningkatan riil
konsumsi masyarakat sekitar 5%, semetara secara nominal naik sekitar 8%.
• Ada indikasi penurunan konsumsi (bukan daya beli) kelompok menengah-atas untuk berjaga-jaga dengan menaikkan tabungan (switching to saving).
GDP growth by expenditure (percent)
* First quarter.
** Withiout changes in investory (1.73)%.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Share 2016
Private consumption 4.26 5.05 5.49 5.43 5.15 4.96 5.01 4.93 56.50
Non-profit private consumption -3.70 5.54 6.68 8.18 12.19 -0.62 6.62 8.02 1.16
General government consumption 3.99 5.52 4.53 6.75 1.16 5.32 -0.15 2.71 9.45
Gross domestic fixed capital formation 6.69 8.86 9.13 5.01 4.45 5.01 4.48 4.81 32.57
Exports of goods and services 15.28 14.77 1.61 4.17 1.07 -2.12 -1.74 8.04 19.08
Less imports of goods and services 16.58 15.03 8.00 1.86 2.12 -6.41 -2.27 5.02 18.31
Composition of GDP by expenditure, 2016 (%)
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
58 32
9 1
Private consump on Gross fixed capital forma on
Government consump on
Exports minus imports
Top-20 Mid-40 Bottom-40
Distribution of spending by “income” group
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
17 36 46 Bottom-40 Mid-40 Top-20 March 2017, percent
Bottom-40 is under considerable pressure
• The majority are farmers, farm workers, construction
workers and other informal workers, and factory workers.
• Their purchasing power generally have decreased for quite long enough.
• Some can still survive by working longer hours, side jobs, or family members enter the labor market, so that family income does not go down significantly.
• The delay of disbursement of social assistance funds.
• The decline of purchasing power of this group on the
national purchasing power is relatively small because their consumption share to the total private consumption is
Began to spread to the lower-middle
• Elimination of of electricity subsidies for 900 VA for approximately 19 million customers. The average
spending on electricity of this group went up from Rp 80,000 to Rp 170,000.
• Salaries of civil servants, soldiers, and police officers have not risen in the last two years. Also due to budget cuts for current expenditures.
Farmers' purchasing power under pressure
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia
102.87 100.02 102.95 102.02 101.31 101.49 99.95 100.15 99 100 100 101 101 102 102 103 103 104
Farmers' terms of trade
NTP: perbandingan indeks harga yang diterima petani
terhadap indeks harga yang dibayar petani, yang
mencerminkan tingkat kemampuan/daya beli petani di pedesaan. NTP juga mencerminkan daya tukar (terms of
trade) produk pertanian terhadap barang dan jasa yang
Farmers' purchasing power under pressure
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia 98.1 102.0 96.7 104.1 95.4 96.7 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 S ep '1 4 10 11 12 Jan '1 5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan '1 6 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Jan '1 7 2 3 4 5
Informal workers in rural sufferred more
than in urban
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
36,500 37,000 37,500 38,000 38,500 39,000 39,500 40,000 Jan' 14 4 7 10 Jan '1 5 4 7 10 Jan '1 6 4 7 10 Jan '1 7 4 Farm workers 64,000 65,000 66,000 67,000 68,000 69,000 Jan '1 4 4 7 10 Jan '1 5 4 7 10 Jan '1 6 4 7 10 Jan '1 7 4 Construction workers
Nov’15-Nov’14 Nov’16-Nov’15 Apr’17-Apr’16 Apr’17-Nov’14
Farm workers -1.67 -1.80 -0.03 -2.38
Construction workers 0.15 -0.91 -1.43 -1.80
Daily real wages, rupiah
Source: DR. Ari Kuncoro based on BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Working hours
An increase at the household level?
Grappling with the issue of overwork: 26.3% of
workers in Indonesia worked 49+ hours per week
Takes longer to find a job
Dari demographic bonus menjadi
demographic burden: youth unemployment
Source: World Bank.
3.9 6.3 6.7 10.4 10.5 21.8 29.5 30.1 34.6 42.0 48.9 Thailand Vietnam Malaysia India China Indonesia Saudi Arabia Syria Iraq Egypt Libya
Unemployment, youth total (% of total labor force ages 15-24) (modeled ILO estimate, 2014)
Motorcycle sales and growth dropped sharply
since 2015
* January-March.
Sources: Asosiasi Industri Sepeda Motor Indonesia (AISI) and ASEAN Automotive Federation.
4,471 4,714 6,281 5,882 7,399 8,044 7,142 7,771 7,909 6,708 6,215 1,579 1,402 -6.4 -11.2 8.8 1.8 -15.2 -7.3 -11.2 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016* 2017* Th o u sa n ds
Motorcycle sales and growth
Car sales increased by 6.0 percent in Q1-2017
* First quarter. Source: Gaikindo 301 300 318 355 483 534 319 433 604 484 765 894 1,116 1,230 1,208 1,013 1,062 267 283 -16.12 4.8 6.0 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Th o u sa n d s Sales-LHS Growth (%)-RHSPrioritas perencanaan
Perencanaan sejatinya mengutamakan pemberdayaan Bottom-40.
2014 Actual audited 2015 Budget 2015 Revised Budget 2015 Actual audited 2016 Budget 2016 Revised budget 2016 Actual (Prelim) 2017 Budget 2017 Revised Budget A. Revenues 1,550 1,794 1,762 1,508 1,822 1,786 1,552 1,750 1,736 I. Tax revenues 1,147 1,380 1,489 1,240 1,547 1,539 1,284 1,499 1,428 a. Income tax 546 644 679 602 757 856 667 788 784 i. Oil and gas 87 89 50 50 41 36 36 36 42 ii. Non-oil & gas 459 556 630 553 716 819 631 752 742 b. VAT/LGST 409 525 576 424 572 474 411 494 476 c. Excises 118 127 146 145 146 148 143 157
d. Others 73 84 88 70 71 61 62 60
II. Non-tax revenues 399 410 269 256 274 245 262 250 260
B. Expenditures 1,777 2,040 1,984 1,806 2,096 2,083 1,860 2,080 2,133 C. Overall balance -227 -246 -223 -298 -274 -297 -308 -330 -397 as percent of GDP -2.2 -2.1 -1.9 -2.6 -2.2 -2.4 -2.5 -2.41 -2.92
Sources: Ministry of Finance and World Bank.
Summary of State Budget 2014-2017 (IDR trillion unless otherwise indicated)
Tax revenue target is still too ambitious, tax
amnesty is not enough to cover the shortfall
Pertumbuhan penerimaan pajak
* Realisasi sementara
** APBN 2017 dibandingkan dengan realisasi 2016.
Tahun persen 2012 12.2 2013 9.9 2014 6.5 2015 8.1 2016* 3.5 2017** 16.7 • Pertumbuhan 2015 semu karena praktek “ijon” dan penundaan pembayaran
restitusi. Tak ada lagi akrobat pajak pada 2016.
• Pertumbuhan 2016 tanpa penerimaan tebusan -4,8% .
• Pertumbuhan 2017
dibandingkan realisasi 2016 tanpa tebusan adalah 26,9%.
• Dengan skenario pertumbuhan 15% pada 2017, penerimaan pajak 2017 Rp 1.358, lebih rendah sebesar Rp 141 triliun
dibandingkan dengan APBN 2017.
• Hingga Mei 2017, penerimaan pajak Rp 463,5T atau 30,9% dari target Rp 1.499T. Diekstrapolasi ke tahunan, penerimaan pajak 2017 adalah Rp 1.112T. “Shortfall” = Rp 387T. Ini sudah termasuk uang tebusan dan puncak penerimaan pajak Maret.
Berbagai pemberitaan belakangan ini
Pemerintah Belum Bayar Dana Subsidi Elpiji ke Pertamina Rp 16 Triliun
“Total tagihan Pertamina ke Pemerintah Rp 35 triliun.“ http://katadata.co.id/berita/2017/06/09/subsi di-elpiji-jadi-utang-terbesar-pemerintah-ke-pertamina Penerimaan pajak
hingga Mei baru 31% dari target
http://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/penerimaan-pajak-hingga-mei-baru-31-dari-target
Menteri Keuangan Sri Mulyani Ubah Batas Dana Wajib Lapor
Pajak Jadi Rp 1 Miliar
Ditjen Pajak: Batas
Gaji Bebas Pajak
Belum Bakal Turun
http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/3029289/ditjen-pajak-batas-gaji-bebas-pajak-belum-bakal-turun
Gaji ke-13 Telat, Konsumsi Masyarakat Lesu?
http://ekonomi.kompas.com/read/2017/07/21/194500126/gaj
i-ke-13-telat-konsumsi-masyarakat-lesu-Tax ratio decreased in the last 5 years
* Preliminary actual.
** Without penalties from tax amnesty. *** own projection.
Sources: Tax revenue from Ministry of Finance; GDP from BPS-Statistics Indonesia based on 2010 Serie and current prices.
Rp trillion % of GDP 723 874 981 1,077 1,147 1,240 1,284 1,181 1,358 10.5 11.2 11.4 11.3 10.9 10.8 10.3 9.5 10.1 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.0 0 500 1,000 1,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 2016** 2017*** Tax revenue (LHS) Tax ratio, (RHS)
Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is low compared
to peers
Source: World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2017, p. 21.
S t a y i n g t h e c o u r s e I n d o n e s i a E c o n o m i c Q u a r t e r l y 21 M a r c h 2017 T H E W OR LD BA N K | BA N K D U N IA Tim Reformasi is overseeing an ambitious reform agenda that, if implemented, will significantly increase the tax-to-GDP ratio
The Ministry of Finance’s new Tim Reformasi is working fast to outline a detailed
roadmap for its four-year tax reform agenda.30 The reforms will be centered on three
administrative pillars and one policy pillar: organizational structure and business processes; human resources; the IT system; and tax laws and regulations. The new strategy includes a “quick-wins” list of reforms the Government intends to implement immediately in 2017, but more importantly, it sets out work on fundamental multi-year reforms, including investing in a new IT system. Additionally, on tax administration, the end of the tax amnesty program shifts attention to the question of what Government will be able to do using the newly collected data.
If the Directorate General of Taxes (DGT) is able to successfully use data
collected to improve
compliance and broaden the tax base, then there may be longer term
benefits of the tax amnesty program. On the
policy-side, reforms of the VAT and of the tax regime
governing medium, small and micro enterprises
(PP46) may be prioritized, as may be the income tax law. These proposed
reforms broadly seek to expand the taxable base, reduce exemptions, and
reduce compliance costs. If the Government is able to successfully pass through the legislative hurdles and implement positive reforms on these areas, then 2017 will
prove to be a big year for meaningful, structural reforms. With Indonesia amongst the countries in the region with one of the lowest tax-to-GDP ratios, this will be a positive development (Figure 37).
Figure 37: Indonesia’s tax-to-GDP ratio is low compared to peers
(percent of GDP)
Source: IMF; World Bank calculations
30 In addition to Tim Reformasi Perpajakan, the Ministry of Finance also established Tim Penguatan
Reformasi Kepabeanan dan Cukai (Custom and Excise Strengthening Reform Team). The work of this team is focused on one administrative and one policy pillar: organizational structure and human
resources; and custom and excise laws and regulations. Tim Penguatan Reformasi Kepabeanan dan
Cukai aims to improve custom and excise revenues and address long-standing challenges in the custom and excise reform area. (BKF, 2017)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2011 2012 2013 2014 percent of GDP
Government debt increased sharply in the last
two years
IDR t ri lli on % of G DP* 2016 plus additional Government plan for net new debts; and own projection for nominal GDP.
Sources: BPS-Statistics Indonesia and Ministry of Finance.
1,809 1,978 2,376 2,609 3,165 3,467 3,856 24.4 24.0 24.9 24.7 27.4 27.9 28.8 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
Total Government debt Debt to GDP ratio
2017
Interest payments = Rp 221,405.1 New debts (net) = Rp 389,009.3
Indonesia’s sovereign rating by 5 agencies
IG = Investment Grade * Revised from stable
** Raised by one notch from BB+ Source: Bank Indonesia.
Rating Agency Rating
Latest
Awarded Date Outlook Note
Moody's Baa3 Feb. 8, 2017 Positive* IG
Fitch BBB- Dec. 21, 2016 Positive* IG
Rating and Investment BBB- Apr. 5, 2017 Positive* IG
Japan Credit Rating Agency BBB- Mar. 7, 2017 Positive* IG
S&P rating and sovereign bond yields
http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/164681492024146238/EAP-Economic-Update-April-2017.pdf?cid=EXTEAPMonth1 BB+ BB-BBB A- AA-BBB+ S&PGovernment bond yields had significantly decreased over the past year in Indonesia and Vietnam even though both
Government bond real yield and credit rating
http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2017/02/11/Indonesia-Selected-Issues-44654
Interest payments as % of total expenditures
2015: 8.6% (US: 6.0%) 2016: 9.8%
2017: 10.9% bigger than capex (10.3%)
Perencanaan untuk membuat
perekonomian sehat
• Perencanaan untuk mampu mengidentifikasi perluasan basis pajak.
• Peningkatan pajak dihasilkan dari proses untuk membuat perekonomian sehat.
• Ibarat kita hendak memetik buah yang bermutu: tanamlah dengan bibit unggul, sirami dan pupuk secara teratur.
• Pajak juga begitu. Merupakan hasil dari membangun perekonomian yang berkualitas.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Low quality of investment
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Average 2011-15
Construction 73.1 72.9 73.5 74.6 75.4 73.9
Machinery & equipment 11.4 11.7 11.2 10.2 9.6 10.8
Vehicles 6.0 6.3 5.7 4.6 4.4 5.4
Other equipments 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4
Cultivated biological resources 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.9
Intellectual property products 2.1 2.1 2.4 3.2 3.0 2.6
Sep 2016: sagging loan growth, the lowest level since
2009; deposit growth dropped to lowest level since 2004
Sources: Bank Indonesia and Financial Services Authority (OJK).
9.2 10.0 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 0 5 10 15 20 25
(y-o-y, % for LHS; % for RHS)
Time deposit growth started creeping up since
October 2016
Sources: Bank Indonesia and Financial Services Authority (OJK).
6.9 10.9 11.5 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
30 Growth, year-on-year, percent
Factors that lead to credit growth will still be
relatively weak
•
Credit growth has always been below 1 digit for the last
14 months
•
“We haven’t seen the bottom for NPLs (3.1 % in
January 2017) because commodity prices are still
volatile and we see uncertainties that can affect our
domestic economy.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-09/indonesia-bad-loan-problem-to-worsen-bank-bailout-chief-says•
“Weak loans" -- which comprises NPLs, special-mention
loans and restructured loans, is around 11% of total
credit in Indonesia -- is among the highest in Asia.
Bagian VI
FDI inflows (net) reached the highest in 2016
* First quarter.
Source: Bank Indonesia.
3.4 2.6 11.1 11.5 13.7 12.2 14.7 10.7 16.0 2.9 2.5 0 5 10 15 20 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016* 2017* U S $ b il li o n s
Far more portfolio investment than FDI since
2014
* First quarter.
