LAMPIRAN 1 : Data Pcrmintaan RokokTahun 1999-2001 Tabel 1
Data Permintaan Rokok Tahun 1999-2001
Bulan Januari' 9 9 Pebruari Maret Apri!
Mei Juni Juli Agustus
-
September Oktober N o p e m b e r D e s e m b e r Januari' 0 0 Pebruari Maret April Mei Juni Juli Agustus September Oktober N o p e m b e r D e s e m b e r Januari' 01 Pebruari Maret April Mei Juni Juli Agustus September Oktober N o p e m b e r D e s e m b e r
CF16BR (bal) 1224 1500 390 720 270 840 1380
660 180 480 870 150 775 930 150 810 270 630 450 380 510 520 420 330 900 1000 1010 740 630 410 930 800 520 420 330 630
CF16MR (bal)
900 1200 2100 1650 2000 1500 2100 720 450 600 750 2250 1500 1440 1350 750 1950 1500 1200 1500 1400 1150 1600 1350 1600 1500 1700 1600 1350 1150 1400 1500 1440 1600 1700 1250
CH12IN (bal) 2400 3600 2200 2080 4160 2600 3460 3200 4780 5060 4760 3273 3180 4280 4900 3760 4860 4080 4640 5160 5520 5400 4100 4920 3800 4040 4620 4750 4050 3600 5100 4280 3740 4020 3800 4560
CH16IN (bal) 1100 1700 520 1800 1420 1720 1550 1600 1400 2250 1850 2000 2020 2340 1740 1520 2500 2680 2950 3370 3280 3520 3880 3420 2010 2240 2200 2300 2000 3100 2000 2500 2460 3000 2500 2500
CH12EX (bal) 2580 1820 1240 2240 1020 2040 1680 2360 2000 2000 2280 1700 1980 1920 2300 2600 2460 2040 2340 2220 2010 2250 2750 2530 4470 2460 2300 2470 2000 1350 2500 2780 2080 1950 2600 2020
^RM16M (bal)
240 660 180 210 240 300 450 180 90 150 270 330 370 360 240 330 210 330 200 120 200 200 210 200 50 390 400 340 370 240 330 120 200 210 380 400
CF12IN (bal) 4040 460 2940
1960 2220 1540 3940 1300 400 440 740 320 1040 1160 1500 600 980 1960 1880 2250 2360 1990 2180 2240 2340 2370 2720 2500 1250 1550 1870 1970 2100 2350 1990 2000
CRM16B (bal)
360 1032
408 600 420 630 540 600 900 800 600 360 450 630 750 810 700 420 500 730 720 800 790 820 580 770 800 820 750 810 590 600 650 720 830 900
LAMPIRAN 2 : Plot Data Permintaan Rokok
1500
CD
Gambar l
Plot Data Permintaan Rokok CF 16 BR
2500 —)
o:
LL
1500 —
500 lndex
Gambar 2
Plot Data Permmtaan Rokok CF 16 MR
LAMPIRAN 2 : (LANJUTAN)
5500 5000 4500 2 4000 oi
5 3500 3000 2500 2000 lndex
Gambar 3
Plot Data Permintaan Rokok CH 12 IN
4000
3000
z
CD
g 2000
1000 lndex
Gambar 4
Plot Data Permintaan Rokok CH 16 IN
i 1 r
10 20 30
LAMPIRAN 2 : (LANJUTAN)
Gambar 5
Plot Data Permintaan Rokok CH 12 EX
2
o
lndex 10 20 30
Gambar 6
Plot Data Permintaan Rokok CRM 16 M
Gambar 7
Plot Data Permintaan Rokok CF 12 IN
co
Gambar 8
Plot Data Pcrmintaan Rokok CRM16 B
Perbandingan Mctode Peramalan Permintaan dengan MAD
Produk CF16BR CF16MR C H 1 2 I N CH 16 IN CH 12 EX C R M 1 6 M C F 1 2 I N CRM16B
Dekomposisi 208.7
297 649 422 321 88,5
638 92,5
MAD
Winter 319 380 664 449 472 120,5
642 158
Metode yang digunakan
Dekomposisi Dekomposisi Dekomposisi Dekomposisi Dekomposisi Dekomposisi Dekomposisi Dekomposisi
Tabel 3
Pcrbandingan Mctodc Peramalan Pcrmintaan dcngan MSE
Produk CF16BR CF16MR CH12IN C H 1 6 I N CH12EX C R M 1 6 M
C F 1 2 I N CRM16B
Dekomposisi 75165 162865 576495 305648 237181 11692.5 730747 18704,2
MSE
Winter 160787 320013 764818 347234 391872 25201.1 671639 46823,8
Metode yang digunakan
Dekomposisi Dekomposisi Dekomposisi Dekomposisi Dekomposisi Dekomoosisi Dekomposisi Dekomposisi
LAMPIRAN 4 : Hasil Peramalan Rokok CF 16 BR dcngan Metode Multiplikasi Wintcr ( dalam satuan bal )
PeramalanRokokCF16BR Winters' multiplicative model
Data CF 16 BR Length 36.0000 NMissing 0
Smoothing Constants
Alpha (level): 0.510 Gamma (trend): 0.176 Delta (seasonal): 0.500 Accuracy Measures MAPE: 67 MAD: 319 MSD: 160787
m 1 2 3 4 S 6 7
1:1
9 10 11 12
Period 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Forecast 469.782 390.321 316.877 245.838 434.297 318.189 255.680 199.471 147.463 245.389 166.597 121.039
Lower -312.73 -501.23 -695.02 -894.15 -839.13 -1092.65 -1295.37 -1493.92 -1689.91 -1737.25 -1962.33 -2154.99
Upper 1252.29 1281.07 1328.78 1385.83 1707.78 1729.03 1806.73 1892.86 1984.84 2228.03 2295.52 2397.07
LAMPIRAN 5 : Hasil Pcramalan Rokok CF 16 MR dcngan Mctode Dckomposisi Multiplikatif ( dalam satuan bal)
Peramalan Rokok CF 16 MR Time Series Decomposition
Data CF 16 MR LengL'a 36.0000 HMissing 0
Trend Line Eguation Yt - 1346.71 + 3.33076*t Seasonal Indices
Period Index 1 1.06297 2 1.00973 3 0.987472 4 0.829846 5 1.12774 6 0.982243
Accuracy of Model
MAPE: 28 MAD: 297 MSD: 162865
Forecasts
Row 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 9 10 11 i 2
Period 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Forecast 1562.51 1487.62 1458.12 1228.13 1672.76 1460.21 1533.75 1507.80 1477.85 1244.71 1695.29 1479.84
LAMPIRAN 6 : Hasil Pcrarr.alan Rokok CF 16 MR dcngan Mctodc Multiplikasi Wintcr (dalarn satuan bal)
r S r a i u a i a n IVONOK CF16MR Winters' muitipiicative modei
Data CF 16 MR L e n g t h 36.0000 N M i s s m g 0
Smoothing C o n s t a n t s
Alplia ( l e v « l ) : G.51G Gaitima ( t r e n d ) : 0 . 1 7 6 D e l t a ( s e a s o n a l ) : 0 . 5 0 0 A c c u r a c y M e a s u r e s MAPE: 34 MAD: 380 MSD: 320013
P.ow i 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12
Period 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Forecast 1421.19 1326.41 1481.49 1319.07 1380.70 1288.34 1438.66 1280.66 1340.20 1250.27 1395.83 1242.25
Lower 489.64 265.04 276.85 -38.06 -135.35 -391.23 -407.82 -735.28 -847.15 -1110.01 -1138.59 -1467.31
Upper iJDi./5 1 T T 7 '7'7
2686.13 2676.20 2896.74 2967.91 3285.14 3296.60 3527.54 3610.55 3930.26 3951.81
LAMPIRAN 7 : Hasil Pcramalan Rokok CH 12 IN dcngan Metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif ( dalam satuan bal)
Peramalan Rokok CH 12 IN Time Series Decomposition
Data CH 12 IN Length 36.0000 NMissing 0
Trend Line Equation Yt - 3378.65 + 37.6900*t
Seasonal Indices Period Index
1.00850 1.04934 0.859010 0.981844 1.10131
Accuracy of Model
MAFE: 17 MAD: 649 MSD: 576495
Forecasts
Row I 2
3
•1 5 6 7 J 9 10 11 12
Period 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Forecast 5008.67 4132.58 4760.53 5381.26 4965.81 5206.42 4294.46 4945.56 5588.80 5155.87 5404.17 4456.34 1
2 3
LAMPIRAN 8 : Hasil Pcramalan Rokok CH 16 MR dcngan Mctodc Multiplikasi Wintcr ( dalam satuan bal)
Peramalan Rokok Cll 12 IN Winters' multiplicative model
Data CH 12 IM Lsagth 36.0000 NMissing 0
Smoothing Constants
Alpha (level): 0.510 Gamma (trend): 0.176 Delta (seasonal): 0.500 Accuracy Measures MAPE: 18 MAD: 664 MSD: 764818
P.ow 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 B 9 10 11 12
Period 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Forecast 4222.07 3633.16 3849.81 3831.56 4325.06 4069.46 3505.70 3708.61 3690.00 4164.07 3916.85 3373.24
Lower 2595.18 1784.57 1745.99 1461.45 1677.40 1136.22 280.96 187.93 -130.03 42.02 -509.34 -1358.80
Upper 5848.96 5491.75 5953.62 6201.68 6972.72 7002.70 6730.44 7229.29 7510.03 8286.12 8343.03 8105.27
LAMPIRAN 9 : Hasil Pcramalan Rokok CH 16 IN dcngan Mctodc Dekomposisi Multiplikatif ( dalam satuan bal)
Peramalan RokokCII 16 IN Time Series Decomposition
Data CH 16 IN Length 36.0000 NMissing 0
Trend Line Equatic>n Yt = 1469.14 + 42.11B4*t
Seasonal Indices Period Index
1 0.950020 2 1.10047 3 0.957572 4 0.991938
Accuracy of Model
MAPE: 22 MAD: 422 MSD: 305648
Forecasts
Row 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 3 9 10 11 12
Period
3/
38 39 40 41
•12 43 44 45 46 47 48
Forecast 2676.21 3378.05 2979.74 3128.45 3036.26 3563.45 3141.06 3295.57 3196.32 3748.85 3302.39 3462.63
LAMPIRAN 10 : Hasil Pcramalan Rokok CH 16 1N dcngan Mctodc Multiplikasi Wintcr ( dalam satuan bal)
PeramalanRokokCII 16 IN Winters' multiplicative model
Data CH 16 IM Length 36.0000 IsMissing 0
Smoothing Constants
Alpha (level): 0.510 Gamma (trend): 0.176 Delta (seasonal): 0.500 Accuracy Measures MAPE: 24 MAD: 449 MSD: 347234
P.ow i 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period 37 38 33 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Forecast 2350.26 2314.23 2400.30 2563.47 2356.07 2921.48 2406.22 2574.81 2361.87 2928.67 2412.15 2581.14
Lower 1249.93 1660.63 377.41 965.47 565.35 937.61 225.20 193.63 -221.77 140.77 -581.46 -619.33
Upper 3450.59 4167.94 3823.20 4171.48 4146.78 4905.35 4587.25 4955.98 4945.51 5716.57 5405.75 5781.60
LAMPIRAN 11 : Hasil Pcramalan Rokok CH 12 EX dcngan Metodc Dekomposisi Multiplikatif ( dalam satuan bal)
Peramalan Rokok CII 12 EX Time Series Decomposition
Data CH 12 EX Length 36.0000 NMissing 0
Trend Line Equation Yt - 1894.56 + 16.7207*t
Seasonal Indices P e n o d Index
1 1.05725 2 1.03048 3 0.912271 Accuracy of Model
MAFE: 16 MAD: 321 MSD: 237181
Forecasts
Row 1
L J
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
u
12Period 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Forecast 2657.11 2607.05 2323.25 2710.14 2658.74 2369.01 2763.17 2710.44 2414.77 2016.21 2762.13 2460.53
LAMPIRAN 12 : Hasil Peramalan Rokok CH 12 EX dcngan Mctodc Multiplikasi Wintcr ( dalam satuan bal)
Peramalan Rokok CH 12 EX Winters' multiplicative model
Data CH 12 EX Length 36.0000 NMissing 0
Smoothing Constants
Alpha (level): 0.510 Gamma (trend): 0.176 Delta (seasonal): 0.500 Accuracy Measures MAPE: 22 MAD: 472 MSD: 391872
P.ow 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ii 12
Period
30 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Forecast 2514.75 2581.00 2011.14 2545.28 2613.10 2035.36 2575.81 2644.32 2059.58 2606.33 2675.53 2083.80
Lower 1357.36 1263.22 514.46 859.15 729.52 -51.38 281.69 139.66 -658.04 -326.14 -473.31 -1282.63
Upper 3672.14 3900.55 3507.82 4231.41 4496.67 4122.10 4869.92 5148.97 4777.19 5538.81 5824.37 5450.22
LAMPIRAN 13 : Hasi! Peramalan Rokok CRM 16 M dcngan Metodc Dekomposisi Multiplikatif ( dalam satuan bal)
Peramaian Rokok CRM 16 M Time Series Decomposition
L e n g t n J D . U U U U
n
Trend Lme Equation
Yt = 278.302 - Q.478764*t Seasonal Indices
Psriod i 2 3
A
5
Index 1.14159 1.11710 0.997485 0.9G3207 0.780618
i r s r i / ' n P MnrJoT
MAFE:
M&D:
MSD:
4 f~
4o o o
uu 11592
2
rr
5
Kn-ror'ACrl-ci
Psriod Forscaist.
1 3 4
c- u
7
D O
9 10
I. 1
12
37 30 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
291.
259.
250.
202.
295.
288.
257.
247, 200.
292, 285 254.
103 454 077 298 297 428 ,067 ,772 .429 ,564 .754 ,679
LAMPIRAN 14 : Hasi! Pcramalan Rokok CRM 16 M cicngan Mctodc Multiplikasi Winter ( dalam satuan bal)
Peramalan Rokok CRM 16 M Winters' multiplicative model
Data CRM 16 M Length 36.0000 KMissing 0
Smoothing Constants
Alphd (level)*. 0.51G Gairtiua (tjTBud) : 0 . 176 Delta ( s e a s o n a l ) : 0.500 Accurscy M"aasur>ss MAPE: 56.1 MAB: 1 2 0 . 5 MCFI . o s T i l 1
Rov?
i c o 4 b 6 7 8 n 1 n II 12
pgri .od 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Fcrecast 312.
341.
360.
376.
470.
4G7.
3S3.
416, 436, 452.
562 555,
488 685 ,375 433 ,538 244 ,142 .135 .147 ,973 ,992 ,139
Lower 17
5, -21 -53 -9 -65, -202 -222 -257 -295 -240 -302
.244 .308 .418 .629 .951 .073 .074 .788 .101 .084 .259 .615
Upper 607, 678.
742.
606.
951.
999.
968.
1055.
1129.
1201.
1366, 1414,
73 07 17 ,61 ,03 56 ,36 ,06 ,39 ,03 ,24 ,90
LAMPIRAN 15 : Hasil Pcramalan Rokok CF 12 1N dcngan Mctodc Dckomposisi Multiplikatif ( dalam satuan bal )
Peramalan Rokok CF 12 IN Time Series Decomposition
Data CF 12 IN Length 36.0000 NMissiag 0
Trend Line Eguation Yt = 1632.22 + 10.0450*t Seasonal Indicss
Period Index 1 1.02526 2 0.963459 3 1.01128 Accuracy of Model
MAPE: 67 MAD: 638 MSD: 730747
Forecasts
Row
i
2 X
3 A
5 6 7
D
u 3
-i n
JLU
12 n
Period
J f
38 39 40 41 43 44 45 46 47 48
Forecast 2054.50 1940.34 2046.82 2085.40 1969.38 2077.29 2116.29 1998.41 2107.77 2027.45 2138.24
LAMPIRAN 16 : Hasil Pcramalan Rokok CF 12 IN dcngan Mctodc Multiplikasi VVinter ( dalam satuan bal)
Peramalan Rokok CF 12 IN Winters' multiplicative model
Data CF 12 IN Length 36.0000 NMissing 0
Smoothing Constants
Alpha (level): 0.510 Gamma (trend): 0.176 Delta (seasonal): 0.500 Accuracy Measures MAPE: 56 MAD: 642 MSD: 671639
Row 1
C 1
•J
4 b G 7 8 9 10 11 12
Period 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Forecast 1864 1906 2088 2004 1836 1877 2056 1973 1808 1849 2025 1943
41 74 62 04 35
Q * 3 1 95 53 29 13 28 03
Lowsr 292 115 55 -285 -721 -956 -1058 -1428 -1882 -2133 -2251 -2629
52 82 94 95 79 14 77 12 58 cc
J J 26 02
Upper 3436.30 3697.66
l l i l . J U
4294.02 4394.49 4712.01 5172.66 5375.18 5499.17
C O O I O O J U -J 1 » U _ .
6301.82 6515.06
LAMPIRAN 17 : Hasil Pcramalan Rokok CRM 16 B dcngan Metodc Dekomposisi Multiplikatif ( dalam satuan bal)
Peramalan Rokok CRM 16 B Time Series Decomposition
Data CRM 16 8 Length 36.0000 NMissing 0
Trend Line Equation Yt • 562.311 + 5.92513*t
Seasonal Indices Period Index
• 1 . 1 .
2 3 4 5 G
0.770100 1.00739 1.05283 1.00510 1.00284 1.08167
Accurac"' of Model
MAPE: 15.8 MAD: 92.5 MSD : 18704.2
Forecasts
Row 1 2 3
* 1 C
6
-7 t
8 9 10 11 12
Period 37 38 39 40 41 42
A A T 1 45 46
A *7
48
Forecdst
b u x . u ~J-J
793.320
O O D . J H H u o / . i * i < : 0 0 7 C C O U U / . U U U
877.464
OCV.£/ u o o n i ^ n
872.779 906.027 843.225 915.924
i
LAMPIRAN 18 : Hasil Pcramalan Rokok CRM 16 B dcngan Mctodc Multiplikasi Winter ( dalam satuan bal)
Peramalan Rokok CRM 16 B Winters' multiplicative model
Data CRM 16 B Length 36.0000 NMissing 0
Smoothing Constants
Alpha (level): 0.510 Gamma (trend): 0.176 Delta (seasonal): 0.500 Aecurscy MeasureS MAPE: 26.5 MAD: 158.0 MSD: 46823.8
,•,,,,,
1 2 3
•i
5 G 7 B Lfl i il 12
Period 37 38 39
m 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48
Forecast 824.99 932.99 914.17 968.35 911.07 1027.87 1004.84
1 n/- n r,*-7
lUO^.U/
997.16 1122.75 1095.50 1155.78
Lower 437.973
4 Qn n A n 1?i- . U l i yl 1 o inn -11-J . / U U
404.534
nn 1 nnn
330.088 237.716 224.544 88.429 142.170 42.572 30.092
Upper 1212 .00
i nnn nn 1 J / J . 3 J •t A 1 A C A
1532.17 1540.92
1 7 T r p X /<iu . U J
1771.96 1899.59 1905.89
T 1 P O OO
£. 1 U J . J J
2148.43 2281.46
LAMPIRAN 19 : Plot Data Pcramalan CF 16 BR dengan Metodc Multiplikasi Wintcr
W i n t e r s ' Multiplicative Model for CF 16 BR
2000
1000 -
b
-1000 -
-2000
Actual
a Fredicted
» Forecast Actua!
• Fredicted Fbrecast
Srroathing Constants Aipha (level): 0.510 Garrrrs (trend): 0.176 Delta (season); 0.500
WVPB 67 mo. 319 MSD 160787
Time
Gambar 1
Plot Data Peramalan CF 16 BR
LAMPIRAN 20 : Plot Data Pcramalan CF 16 MR dcngan Mctodc Dckomposisi Plot Data Peramalan CF 16 MR
Decomposition F i t f o r CF 16 MR
2000
DC
2 1500
LL
o 1000 —
500 —
Time
a
*
Actual Predicted Forecast Actuai Pradicted Forece^
MAPE: 28 MAD: 297 MSD: 162865
Component Analysis for CF16 MR
2500
1500
Oiginal Data
500 -
2500
1500
500
Detrended Data
Seasonally Adjusted Data
1.5 -
1.0
05
hi l ,
I i \\w\n
1000 -
0 10 20 30 40
Seasonally Adj. and Detrended Data
-1000
Gambar 2
Plot Data Peramalan CF 16 MR
LAMPIRAN 21: Plot Data Pcramalan CF 16 MR dcngan Mctodc Multiplikasi Winter
Winters* Muitiplicative Model for CF 16 MR
C£
CD
O
10 20 30
Time
' » - ' * " * * • » • * * - * L
40
Actuai
a Redcted
« Forecast Actual Redcted - ' - - Rxecast
SmDottiing Constants Alpha (levd): 0.510 GarrrrB (trend): 0.176 Dslta (season): 0.500
WAFE'
M3D
34 380 320013
Gambar 3
Plot Data Peramalan CF 16 MR
LAMPIRAN 22 : Plot Data Pcramalan CH 12 1N dcngan Mctodc Dckomposisi Plot Data Peramalan CII 12 IN
Decomposition Fit for CH 12 lN
Time
Component Analysis for CH 12 IN
Oriainal Data
10 20 30
Seasonally Adjusted Data
40
14 - 1.3 - 1.2 J
1.1 - 1.0 - 0.9 - 0.8 "
0.7 - 0.6 -
Detrended Data
0 10 20 30 40
Seasonaliy Adj. and Detrended Data
1000
o -
-1000
Gambar 4
Plot Data Peramalan CH 12 IN
.
LAMPIRAN 23: Plot Data Pcramalan CH 12 IN dcngan Mctodc Multiplikasi Winter
Winters' Multiplicative Modei f o r C H 12 IN
8000
z
CM 4000
X O
o -
*
A 4
" " "
ActLial Fredcted Forecast Actual Fredcted Forecast
Srroolhing Oonstants Aipha (levef): 0.510 Garrrna (trend); 0.176 Delta (season): 0.500
IVWFE
tmo.
MSD
18 664 764818
Gambar 5
Plot Data Pcramalan CH 12 IN
LAMPIRAN 24 : Plot Data Pcramalan CH 16 IN dcngan Mctodc Dckomposisi
Plot Data Peramalan CII 16 IN Decomposition Fitfor CH 16 IN
4000 —
MAPE:
MAD:
MSO:
22 422 30564B
Time
Component Analysis for CH 16 IN
4000 J
3000 -
2000 -
1000 -
4000 -
3000 -
2000 -
1000 -
Original Data
.fW^
0 10 20 30 40
Seasonally Adjusted Data
^
1.5 -
1.0 -
0 5 -
1000 -
0 -
-1000 -
Detrended Data
A
(f
I
0 10 20 30 40
Seasonally Adj. and Detrended Data
t^-Aw
10 20
Gambar 6
Plot Data Pcramalan CH 16 IN
LAMPIRAN 25 : Plot Data Pcramalan CH 16 IN dcngan Metodc Multiplikasi Winter
Winters' Multiplicative Model for CH 16 IN
co
o
:Actual
* R-edcted
• Forecast Actual Redcted fttfecast
Smx*iing Constants Alpha (leveO: 0.510 Ganrrra (trend): 0.176 Detta (season): 0.500
M F E M*D M3D
24 449 347234
Time
Gambar 7
Plot Data Peramalan CH 16 IN
LAMPIRAN 26 : Plot Data Pcramalan CH 12 EX dcngan Mctodc Dckomposisi Plot Data Pcramalan CH12 EX
Decomposition Fit for CH 12 EX
CM
T
X
o
4000 —
3000
2000 —
1000 —
MAPE:
MAD:
MSO.
18 321 237181
Time
Component Analysis for CH 12 EX
Oigina! Data Detrended Data
10 20 30
Seasonally Adjusted Data 40
2.0
1.5
1.0 "
0.5
ivVW^r'vA
I !
0 10 20 30 40
Seasonally Adj. and Detrended Data 2000 -
1000 -
-1000
Gambar 8
Plot Data Pcramalan CH 12 EX
LAMPIRAN 27: Plot Data Pcramalan CH 12 EX dcngan Mctode Multiplikasi Winter
Winters' Multiplicative Model for CH 12 EX
Bi
k •
k t ' ' t
7
« ++ *-+. f-4
V v' V *
1 '
1r t
«
Actual
a Redicted
* Fbrecast Actual Fredicted Forecast
Smoothing Constants Alpha (tevel); 0.510 Garrma (trend): 0.176 Dslta (season): 0.500
NAFE 22 MAD 472 M3D 391872
10 20 30
Time
40
Gambar 9
Plot Data Pcramalan CH 12 EX
LAMPIRAN 28 : Plot Data Pcramalan CRM 16 M dcngan Mctodc Dckomposisi
Plot Data Peramalan CRM 16 M
Decomposition Fit for CRM 16 M
Time
* Actual A Predicied
* Forecasi Adua!
Predicted
• - - Forecasl
MAPE:
MAD:
MSD:
45.2 88 5 11692.5
50
Component Analysis for CRM 16 M
Original Data Detrended Data
10 20 30
Seasonally Adjusted Data
2 -
1 -
0 A
10 20 30 40
Seasonaily Adj. and Detrended Data
Gambar 10
Plot Data Peramalan CRM 16 M
.AMPIRAN 29: Plot Data Pcramalan CPvM 16 M dcngan Mctodc Muitiplikasi Wintcr
Winters' Muitipiicative Modei forCRM 16 M
1500
1000 - co
O
500 H
0 -
Actual R-edcted Forecast Actual
Redcted Porecast
Srroofhrig Constants Alpha(level): 0.510 Garrrra (trend): 0.176 Ctefes (seascrs): 0.500
MM5
56.1 120.5 25201.1
v j a i u u a L L i
Piot Data Perarnaiar. CRM 16 M
LAMPIRAN 30 : Plot Data Pcramalan CF 12 IN dcngan Mctodc Dckornposisi Plot Data PcramalanCF 12IN
c U O m p u o i i l u u i i i . I U I v> i \ c n \
4200
3200 —
g
CM
u_
o
2200
1200
200
Actual Pra-ici-d Forecast Actuai Predided F_<-c__
M A P E - MAD:
MSD:
67 638 730747
ims
Component Anaiysis for CF 12 IN
O r i g i n a l D a t a D e t r e n d e d D a t a
10 20 30
S e a s o n a l l y A d j u s t e d D a t a 4000 -
3000 "
2000 -
1000 •
o -
1 11
\M\ JvA ^v
\ W v
0 10 20 30 40
S e a s o n a l l y A d j . a n d D e t r e n d e d D a t a
»0 20 30 40
-1000 -1500
I _n»^.l—>*^»- 1 l
\_iauiu_u Iz.
Plot Data Peramaian Permmtaan CF 12 IN
LAMPIRAN 31. Ploi Data Peramalan CF 12 IN dengan Meiode Mukiplikasi Wintcr
Winters' Multiplicative Modei for CF 12 IN
6000
4000
^ 2000 - U . O
-2000 —
• Actual
A Fredcted
* Forecast Actual Fredcted
— Forecast
Smootriing Constants Alpha (leveJ): 0.510 Garrma (trend): 0.176 Dslta (season); 0.500
fJV\FE
mo.
my.
56 642 671639
Gambar 13
Plot Data Peramaian Permintaan CF 12 IN
Decomposition Fit for CRM 16 B
m
CO
:>
c_ o
1050 —
950 —
850 —
750 —
<_*_»-'
550 —
/t_.g
350 —
l fc
I \\ A rA A
\ M A<Mp I AMM^l
wW§ W \ \ !
'• \/ '
i i i 0 10 20
Time
. / *S .A:'
_ # / » ' • ? *
& f f ; ii
l ' / i V
J/ i *
i • • - I i 30 4 0 5C
* Actual
— Piediried
* For?c3_
Actual Predicted
MAPE: 15.8 MAOc 02.5 MSO: 18704.2
)
f r , m « « n « « t A . - - . I . , - . : - <,- - /~*Dll Jl 4 C D
O O I I I ( J U I iciu /-\i icaiyaia I U I v.r\ivi I U D
1050 950 830 /50 G50 550 450 350
Orlgmal Data Detrended Data
\ A JAfM 1
\ \1
v '
10 20 30
Seasonallv Adjusted Data 000 -j
900 -I 800 - 700 - 600 - 500 "
400 300 -
I
1
/A rAf*"
v^ V Y ~v
500 - 400 =
300 200 - 100
o -
-100 -200 -300 J
-400 -.
0 10 20 30 40
Sea_onal!y Adj. and Detrended Data
20 30 40 10 20 30 40
vjamuar i*t
Plot Data Peramalan Pcrmintaan CRM 16 B
LAMPIRAN 33: Plot Data Pcramalan CRM 16 B dcngan Mctodc Multiplikasi Winter
Winters' Muitipiicative Modei for CRM 16 B
2000
m
CO
T —
§ j 1000 o
0 -
I 1 1 0 10 20
,
y
.- / "
* * ., *, **
•-
• ' i ' ' • ' •• i •
30 40
Actual
A ftedicted
* Fbrecast Actual Fredicted Forecast
Srroottiina, Constants Alpha (level): 0.510 Csrrrra (trend); 0.176 Delta (season): 0.500
M^PE 26.5
m> 158.0 MSD 46823.8
Ti I I I C
G aiiibar 15
i ivjv L^u.i.u. i v i u u i a i u t t 1 \ ^ i m i i u u u i i v ^ i v l v i L\J LJ
LAMPIRAN 35 : BILL OF MATERIAL
Bill OfMatcrialRokokCF 16 BR
T.KrgJati 0,64 kg
T.Madewo 0,8 kg
CF16BR 1 BAL
T.Muntilan 0,48 kg
Cengkeh 0,96 kg
Saos 0,033 ltr
Bill Of Matcrial Rokok CF 16 MR
T.Krg.Jati 0,64 kg
CF16MR 1 Bal
T.Madewo 0,8 kg
T.Muntilan 0,48 kg
Cengkeh 0,88 kg
Saos 0,033 ltr
LAMPLRAN 36 : (LANJUTAN)
Bill OfMatcrialRokokCH 12 1N
T.Bjnegoro 1,032 kg
T.Madewo 0,912 kg
CH12IN 1 Bal
T.Muntilan 0,768 kg
Cengkeh 1,368 kg
Saos 0,039 ltr
Bill Of Material Rokok CH 16 IN
T.Bjnegoro 1,376 kg
CH 16 IN 1 Bal
T.Madewo 1,216 kg
T.Muntilan 1,024 kg
Cengkeh 1,824 kg
Saos 0,059 Itr
LAMPIRAN 37 : (LANJUTAN)
Bill Of Material RokokCII12EX
T.Bjnegoro 1,344 kg
CH 12 EX 1 Bal
T.Madewo 1,056 kg
T.Muntilan 0,312 kg
Cengkeh 1,368 kg
Saos 0,039 ltr
Bill Of Material Rokok CRM 16 M
.
T.Bjnegoro 0,64 kg
CRM16M 1 Bal
T.Madewo 0,64 kg
T.Muntilan 0,64 kg
Cengkeh 0,88 kg
Saos 0,045 ltr
LAMPIRAN 38 : (LANJUTAN)
Bill Of Material Rokok CF 12 IN
T.KrgJati 1,2 kg
CF 12 IN 1 Bal
T.Madewo 0,96 kg
T.Muntilan 0,72 kg
Cengkeh 1,44 kg
Saos 0,042 Itr
Bill Of Material Rokok CRM 16 B
T. Krgjati 0.64 kg
CRM16B 1 Bal
T. Madewo 0.64 kg
T.Muntilan 0.64 kg
Cengkeh 0.96 kg
Saos 0.045 Itr
LAMPIRAN 39: KEBUTUIIAN BAIIAN BAKU Tabel 5
Kebutuhan Bahan Baku Tembakau Bojonegoro
Bulan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Kebutuhan Tembakau Bojonegoro(kg) CH12IN I
5169.29 4265.26 4913.35 5554.22 5124.91 5373.62 4432.44 5104.27 5767.85 5320.99 5577.96 4599.62
CH16IN 3958.75 4649.5 4100.48
4305.5 4178.91 4904.07 4323.39 4535.3 4399.07 5158.62 4544.93 4765.09
CH12EX 3572.35 3505.15 3125.46 3643.58 3573.7 3185.28 3714.82 3643.58 3245.76 3786.05 3713.47 3307.58
CRM16B 186.88
166.4 160.64 129.92 189.44 184.96 165.12 158.72 128.64 187.52 183.04 163.2 Total ixD cD
Total 12887.3 12586.3 12299.9 13633.2 13067 13647.9 12635.8 13441.9 13541.3 14453.2 14019.4 12835.5 159047
13254 641.55
LAMPIRAN 40: KEBUTUHAN BAHAN BAKU (LANJUTAN) Tabel 6
Kebutuhan Bahan Baku Tembakau Madewo
1
Bin 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Kebutuhan l embakau Madewo(kg) CF 16
BR 508 394.4 352.8 276.8 541.6 479.2 371.2 332 260.8
508.8 449.6 348
CF 16 MR 1250.4 1190.4 1167.2 983.2 1338.4 1168.8 1267.2 1206.4 1182.4 996 1356.8
1184
CH 12 IN 4568.21
3769.3 4342.03 4908.38 4528.99 4748.78 3917.04 4510.75 5097.17 4702.27 4929.36 4064.78
CH16 1N 3498.43 4108.86 3623.68 3804.86 3692.99 4333.82 3820.67 4007.94 3887.55 4558.78 4016.45 4211.01
CH 12 CRM EX 16 M 2806.85
2754.05 2454.14 2862.82 2807.9 2502.72 2918.78 2862.82 2550.24 2974.75 2917.73 2598.82
186.88 166.4 160.64 129.92 189.44 184.96 165.12 158.72 128.64 187.52 183.04 163.2
CF 12 1N 1972.8 1863.36 1965.12 2002.56 1891.2 1994.88 2032.32 1919.04 2023.68 2062.08 1946.88 2053.44
CRM 16B 385.28 508.16 1003.2 1041.6 517.12 561.92 403.2
531.2 558.72 580.48 540.16 586.24 Total
uD cD
i
Total 15176.9 14754.9 15068.8 16010.1 15507.6 15975.1 14895.5 15528.9 15689.2 16570.7 16340 15209.5
186727 15561 574.12
LAMPIRAN 41: KEBUTUHAN BAHAN BAKU (LANJUTAN) Tabel 7
Kebutuhan Bahan Baku Tembakau Muntilan
Bulan 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Kebutuhan Tembakau Muntilan(kg) CF 16
BR 304.8 236.64 211.68 166.08 324.96 287.52 222.72 199.2
CF 16 MR 750.24 714.24 700.32 589.92 803.04 701.28 760.32 723.84 156.48 709.44 305.28 597.6 269.76
208.8
814.08 710.4
CH12 IN 3846.91 3174.14 3656.45 4133.38 3813.89 3998.98 3298.56 3798.53 4292.35 3959.81 4151.04 3422.98
CH 16 IN 2946.05
3460.1 3051.52
3204.1 3109.89 3649.54 3217.41 3375.1 3273.73 3838.98 3382.27 3546.11
CH12 EX 829.3 813.7 725.09 845.83 829.61 739.44 862.37 845.83 753.48 878.9 862.06 767.83
CRM 16 M 186.88
166.4 160.64 129.92 189.44 184.96 165.12 158.72 128.64 187.52
CF 12 1N 1479.6 1397.52 1473.84 1501.92 1418.4 1496.16 1524.24 1439.28
CRM 16 B 385.28 508.16 1003.2 1041.6 517.12 561.92 403.2 531.2 1517.76 | 558.72 1546.56
183.04 | 1460.16 163.2 1540 08
580.48 540.16 586.24 Total
LlD aD
Total 10729.1 10470.9 10982.7 11612.8 11006.4 11619.8 10453.9 11071.7 11390.6 11895.1 10662.6 10945.6 132841 11070 469.85
