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I . Keadaan dan Peikembangan Perekonomian
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I I . Beberapa Indikator Pdikembangan Produksi
Perkembangan P r o d u k a Minyak B u m i Perkembangan Produksi Beras
Perkembangan Produksi Pertanian Terpenting Perkembangan Komoditi P e r i n d u s t r i a n Terpenting
I I I . Perkembangan Neraca Pembayaran Luar Negeri
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I V . Perkembangan Moneter dan Perbankan
Perkembangan M o n e t e r
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V . Perkembangan Haiga
Perkembangan Inflasi
Perkembangan Harga Beberapa Komoditi Ekspor •
V I . Masalah-masalah Khusus
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Aspek Neraca Pembayaran dan Perdagangan L u a r Negeri Dewasa ini
I . Keadaan dan Pericembangan Perekonomian. I . l . Perkembangan Perdconomian Dunia.
D a l a m t a h u n 1 9 8 1 a d a d u a h a l y a n g m e n o n j o l d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n d u n i a . P e r t a m a i a l a h resesi e k o n o m i y a n g s e m a k i n t a j a m d a n m e l u a s d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a
Disusun oleh: Murniati Samsono bersama Pudjiastuti dengan bantuan Moh. Sadii dan
Sumitro Djojohadikusumo. . ,
i n d u s t r i . K e d u a n y a , n e g a r a n e g a r a O P E C b e r h a s i l u n t u k m e n g a d a k a n p e n y a -t u a n h a r g a l a g i p a d a -t i n g k a -t dasar U S $ 3 4 p e r b a r r e l b a g i S a u d i A r a b i a n L i g b t C r u d e sebagai " m a r k e r " . O l e b p a r a a n g g o t a O P E C j u g a d i s e p a k a t i b a b w a b a r g a m i n y a k b u m i d i s t a b U i s a s i ( d i b e k u k a n ) p a d a t i n g k a t t e r s e b u t , s e t i d a k -t i d a k n y a s a m p a i a k b i r -t a b u n 1 9 8 2 . D a r i s u d u t k e p e n t i n g a n A s i a T e n g g a r a p a d a u m u m n y a , d a n p e r e k o n o -m i a n I n d o n e s i a p a d a k b u s u s n y a , -m a k a p e r k e -m b a n g a n e k o n o -m i d i J e p a n g d a n A m e r i k a S e r i k a t m e n g a n d u n g a r t i y a n g sangat p e n t i n g . E h i a n e g a r a t e r s e b u t m e n g a m b i l p e r a n a n s e k i t a r 7 0 % d a r i s e l u m b n i l a i p e r d a g a n g a n l u a r n e g e r i I n d o n e s i a ( e k s p o r d a n i m p o r ) . D a l a m p a d a i t u E r o p a B a r a t , w a l a u p u n p e r a -n a i m y a d a l a m p e r d a g a -n g a -n l u a r -n e g e r i I -n d o -n e s i a j a u b d i b e l a k a -n g J e p a -n g d a -n A m e r i k a S e r i k a t , n a m u n m a s i b m e r u p a k a n p a s a r y a n g sangat b e r a r t i b a g i I n d o n e s i a t e r u t a m a b a g i k o m o d i t i e k s p o r n o n - m i n y a k ( b a s i l b u m i , b a r a n g i n d u s t r i r i n g a n d a n k e r a j i n a n t a n g a n ) m a u p u n sebagai s u m b e r b a r a n g m o d a l d a n b a b a n b a k a r / b a r a n g s e t e n g a b j a d i . L a g i p u l a , p e r e k o n o m i a n J e p a n g sa-l i n g k a i t - m e n g a i t d e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g a n d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t m a u p u n d i E r o p a ( d a l a m b a l i n i M a s y a r a k a t E k o n o m i E r o p a , M E E ) . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n p e r k e m b a n g a n e k o n o m i d a l a m M E E a k b i m y a j u g a m e n g a n d u n g p e n g a r u b t e r b a d a p p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a . M e n j e l a n g a k b i r t a b u n 1 9 8 1 k i n i d i a k u i o l e b p i b a k O E C D m a u p u n o l e b k a l a n g a n s w a s t a i n t e r n a s i o n a l , b a b w a resesi d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n d u n i a a k a n b e r l a n g s u n g j a u b l e b i b l a m a d a r i d u g a a n m e r e k a s e m u l a . ^ K e c e n d e r u n g a n t e r s e b u t s e b e n a r n y a t e l a b s e j a k b e b e r a p a w a k t u d i k e m u k a k a n d a l a m t i n j a u a n b e r k a l a d i M a j a l a b E K I i n i . K a l a u p u n p e r k e m b a n g a n e k o n o m i d i negara-nega-r a i n d u s t negara-nega-r i a k a n b a n g k i t l a g i d a l a m b a g i a n a k b i negara-nega-r t a h u n 1 9 8 2 m e n d a t a n g , m a k a p r o s e s p e m u l i b a n y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n a k a n b e r j a l a n l a m b a t d e n g a n b a n y a s e d i k i t k e n a i k a n p a d a l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i . K e c e n d e r u n g a n t e r s e b u t d i p e r k i r a k a n m a s i b a k a n b e r l a n g s u n g d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , s e t i d a k - t i d a k n y a s e l a m a b a g i a n p e r t a m a n y a . D a r i d a t a y a n g s e k a r a n g t e r s e d i a d a n d a r i p e r k i r a a n p e r k n a a n k a l a n g a n y a n g b e r p e n g a r u h d a l a m d u n i a e k o n o m i i n t e r n a s i o n a l d i p e r o l e h g a m
-1- OECD, Semi-Annual Report, Desember 1981, OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) meliputi negara-negara di Amerika Utara (Amerika Serikat dan Kanada), Eropa Barat, Jepang, Australia, Selandia Baru.
L i h a t juga: Jeffrey Mizrahi, The World Economy and O u t look for Currencies,
Inter-national Investment Research, Bank of Amerika NT & SA, 11 November 1981; The Asian Wall Street Journal, December 31, 1981; Bank of Amerika, Economic Out-look; World 1 9 8 2 , December 1981.
b a r a n m e n g e n a i k e c e n d e r u n g a n - k e c e n d e r u n g a n d a s a r (fundamental trendf) y a n g m e n y a n g k u t : l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i , t i n g k a t p e n g a n g g u r a n , l a i n f l a s i , n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l , sebagai b e r i k u t : P e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d i negara-negara i n d u s t r i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 1 d a n t a b d n 1 9 8 2 a k a n b e r a d a j a u b d i b a w a b t i n g k a t r a t a r a t a t a b u n a n y a n g d i c a p a i sel i -m a d a s a w a r s a 1 9 7 0 - a n . J e p a n g a d a l a b s a t u - s a t u n y a d i a n t a r a negara-nega; a i n d u s t r i y a n g m e n u n j u k k a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i y a n g b e r a r t i ; l a g i p u a b a l i t u d i s e r t a i o l e b t i n g k a t p e n g a n g g u r a n d a n t i n g k a t i n f l a s i y a n g k e d u a n y a r e l a t i f r e n d a b . P e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i y a n g t e r t e k a n d i k e b a n y a k a n n e g a r a i n d u s t i d i s e b a b k a n o l e b stagnasi p a d a u n s u r u n s u r p o k o k d a l a m p e n g e l u a r a n p e r m u -t a a n e f e k -t i f , y a i -t u : p e n g e l u a r a n k o n s u m s i p e r o r a n g a n y a n g b e r k u r a n g k a r e n i t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n n y a t a (real income) y a n g m e n u r u n ; p e n g e l u a r a n i n v e s t a i i y a n g t e r t e k a n k a r e n a t i n g k a t b u n g a y a n g t e t a p t i n g g i ( w a l a u p u n s u d a b aga c m e r e d a ) ; p e n g e l u a r a n a n g g a r a n p e m e r i n t a h y a n g d i k u r a n g i a t a u dibatas: e k s p o r n e t t o d a r i b e b e r a p a n e g a r a b e s a r j u g a k u r a n g m e m b e r i p e l u a n g bag i p r o s e s p e r t u m b u h a n . M a s a l a h p e n g a n g g u r a n d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i . D a l a m U n g k u n g a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a O E C D sebagai k e s e l u r u b a n , j u m l a b p e n g a n g g u r p a d a saat i n i m e l i p u t i 2 6 j u t a j i w a . J u m l a b t e r s e b u t m a s i b a k a n m e n i n g k a l a g i s a m p a i 2 8 j u t a j i w a l e b i b p a d a p e r t e n g a h a n t a b u n 1 9 8 2 . H a l i t u m e w a k i l 8 % d a r i a n g k a t a n k e r j a . D i E r o p a B a r a t j u m l a b p e n g a n g g u r a n d i p e r k i r a k a n m e n i n g k a t d a n a k a r m e l e b i b i 1 6 j u t a j i w a p a d a a k b n t a b u n 1 9 8 2 / a w a l t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , a t a u 1 0 % d a r a n g k a t a n k e r j a . S e d a n g k a n d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t t i n g k a t p e n g a n g g u r a n d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 d i p e r k i r a k a n s e k i t a r 9 % d a r i a n g k a t a n k e r j a . T i n g k a t - t i n g k a t p e n g a n g g u r a n d i E r o p a B a r a t d a n d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t s e b a g a i m a n a d i s e b u t d i a t a s a d a l a b l e b i b t i n g g i d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n k e a d a a n s e m a s a d e p r e s i t a b u n 1 9 3 0 - a n s e b e l u m P e r a n g D u n i a I I . S e b a l i k n y a d i Je-p a n g t i n g k a t Je-p e n g a n g g u r a n r e l a t i f r e n d a b , y a i t u 2(2% u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 1 . T i n g k a t t e r s e b u t k i r a n y a t i d a k a k a n m e n a i k d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 , b a b k a n p a d a a w a l t a b u n 1 9 8 3 b i s a m e n u r u n m e n j a d i 2 % . L a j u i n f l a s i d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i c e n d e r u n g u n t u k m e n u r u n secara b e r a n g s u r d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 8 0 d a n t a b u n 1 9 8 1 . 3 M e n u r u n n y a l a j u i n f l a s i i t u a d a s a n g k u t p a u t n y a d e n g a n k e b i j a k s a
-3 Di Perancis laju inflasi tahun 1982 tetap tinggi sehubungan dengan kebijaksanaan ekspansi ekonomi di negara tersebut.
n a a n fiskal d a n m o n e t e r y a n g b e r s i f a t k e t a t - r e s t r i k t i f ( t e r k e c u a l i d i P e r a n c i s ) . S e k a r a n g i n i n y a t a n y a d i l a k u k a n s u a t u k e b i j a k s a n a a n y a n g b e r b e d a d a n b e r t e n t a n g a n d e n g a n m a z b a b k e b i j a k s a n a a n k o n t r a s i k b s . D a l a m s u a t u k e b i j a k s a n a a n y a n g b e r s i f a t k o n t r a s i k l i s , m a k a p a d a k e a d a a n resesi d i b e r i k a n d o r o n g a n (stimulans) t e r b a d a p k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i m e l a l u i p e n i n g k a t a n p e r m i n t a a n e f e k t i f d e n g a n m e n a m b a b p e n g e l u a r a n a n g g a r a n a t a u d e n g a n k e l o n g -g a r a n p o U t i k m o n e t e r a t a u p u n b e r d a s a r k a n k o m b i n a s i k e d u a n y a ( a n -g -g a r a n d a n m o n e t e r ) . A k a n t e t a p i , o l e b k a r e n a d e w a s a i n i p e n a n g g u l a n g a n i n t l a s i d i j a d i k a n t i t i k p u s a t k e b i j a k s a n a a n d i k e b a n y a k a n n e g a r a i n d u s t r i m a k a p e n g e l u a r a n a g r e g a t i f ( j u m l a b p e n g e l u a r a n d a l a m m a s y a r a k a t secara m e n y e l u r u b ) d i -b a t a s i d a n p e r m i n t a a n e f e k t i f j u s t r u d i k e k a n g . M e m a n g l a j u i n t l a s i a k a n b e r k u r a n g , a k a n t e t a p i d i l a i n p i b a k p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i t e r s e n d a t - s e n d a t d a n p e n g a n g g u r a n m e l u a s , s e p e r t i d i u n g k a p k a n d i b a g i a n d i a t a s .
Laju Inflasi di Beberapa Negara Industri
( % b e r d a s a r k a n I n d e k s H a r g a K o n s u m e n ) R a t a - r a t a t a b u n a n 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 S e l u r u b O E C D A m e r i k a S e r i k a t J e p a n g J e r m a n B a r a t P e r a n c i s 7 . 2 9 . 1 5 . 4 9.2 1 3 . 5 8 . 0 5 . 5 1 3 . 6 9 . 5 1 0 . 0 5 . 0 6 . 0 1 5 . 5 1 3 . 5 - 1 4 . 5 8 . 0 - 8.5 8.5 4 . 5 5 . 0 * ) P e r k i r a a n .
Neraca Pembayaran Internasional dari Beberapa Negara Industri ( S u r p l u s / d e f i s i t p a d a t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n , curent account, d a l a m m i l y a r d d o l l a r A m e r i k a ) A m e r i k a S e r i k a t J e p a n g J e r m a n B a r a t P e r a n c i s * ) P e r k i r a a n 1 9 8 0 3 . 7 1 0 . 8 1 6 . 0 7 . 5 1 9 8 1 + 1 . 0 + 5 . 0 - 1 0 . 5 - 7 . 0 1 9 S 2 - 9 . 0 + 9 . 0 ! 2 . 0 - 8 . 5 D a l a m t a h u n 1 9 8 2 A m e r i k a S e r i k a t a k a n m e n g a l a m i l a g i s u a t u d e f i s i t y a n g besar ( 9 m i l y a r d d o l l a r ) p a d a t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n . P e r k e m b a n g a n t e r s e b u t m e n c e r m i n k a n b e r b a g a i f a k t o r k e k u a t a n s e p e r t i d i a n t a r a n y a : b a m b a t a i y a n g d i a l a m i d a l a m e k s p o r n y a k a r e n a n i l a i d o l l a r y a n g r e l a t i f m e n i n g k a t d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n m a t a u a n g n e g a r a - n e g a r a E r o p a ; p e r t u m b u h a n y a n ; t e r t e k a n d i p a s a r a n l u a r n e g e r i ; t i n g k a t k e n a i k a n i m p o r y a n g t e t a p t i n g g S e b a l i k n y a s u r p l u s J e p a n g p a d a t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 m e n j a d i s e m a k i n b e s a r , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 8 1 . J u g a n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n l u a r n e g e r i J e r m a n B a r a t m e n u n j u k k a n b a n y a k p e r b a i k a n . W a l a u p u n d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 m a s i b a k a n d i a l a m i s u a t u d e f i s i t k e c i l p a d a t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n d i p e r k i r a k a n b a b w a J e r m a n B a r a t d a p a t m e n c a p a i s u a t u s u r p l u s l a g i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 3 . P e r k e m b a n g a n n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n y a n g l e b i b b a i k d i J e p a n g d a n J e r m a n B a r a t a d a k a i t a n n y a d e n g a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r y a n g c u k u p m e m a d a i , p e r b a i k a n p a d a n i l a i t u k a r / n i l a i p e r b a n d i n g a n (terms of trade) da l a m p e r d a g a n g a n l u a r n e g e r i d a n i m p o r y a n g n a m p a k n y a t i d a k m e n i n g k a t B a g i P e r a n c i s p r o s p e k p e r k e m b a n g a n n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 ! ! t i d a k c e r a b , d a n l e b i b b u r u k d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 8 1 . D a l a m p e r k e m b a n g a n n e g a r a ^ i e g a r a i n d u s t r i , s e p e r t i d i u t a r a k a n d: a t a s d a l a m garis b e s a m y a , m a s i b a d a d u a m p a f a k t o r k e t i d a k p a s t i a n y a n ; d a p a t m e r u p a k a n g a n g g u a n t a m b a h a n d a l a m l a l u H n t a s p e m b a y a r a n lua|r n e g e r i d a n d a l a m p r o s e s p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i , y a i t u : a ) p e n e r i m a a n s u r p l u s n e g a r a - n e g a r a O P E C y a n g sangat m e n u m n sebinggji m e n g u r a n g i p e n g e l u a r a i m y a d i n e g a r a ^ i e g a r a i n d u s t r i . b ) t i n g k a t b u n g a y a n g t e t a p t i n g g i , t e m t a m a d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t .
S u r p l u s O P E C y a n g d a l a m t a h u n 1 9 8 1 m a s i h b e r j u m l a b 6 0 m i l y a r d d o l l a r A m e r i k a d i p e r k i r a k a n a k a n m e n u r u n s a m p a i 2 5 - 3 0 m i l y a r d d o l l a r A m e r i k a d a l a m m a s a w a k t u d u a t a b u n m e n d a t a n g , t a b u n 1 9 8 2 d a n t a h u n 1 9 8 3 . S a t u s a m a l a i n b a l i t u m e n c e r m i n k a n b e r k u r a n g n y a i m p o r m i n y a k b u m i d a r i p i b a k n e g a r a n e g a r a O E C D k a r e n a d i a n g g a p m a s i b a d a n y a " s u r p l u s m i n y a k " ( w a l a u p u n b e r s i f a t s e m e n t a r a ) d a n p e r s e d i a a n s t o c k y a n g m e -m a d a i . S e b a l i k n y a p e r k e -m b a n g a n i t u a k a n -m e n g u r a n g i p e n g g u n a a n s u r p l u s O P E C d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i , sebingga j u g a m e m p e r t a j a m t e k a n a n p a d a n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n m a u p u n p a d a p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t d a n E r o p a B a r a t . T i n g k a t b u n g a d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t d i b e l a k a n g a n w a k t u s u d a b m e n u r u n d a n p a d a a k b i r t a b u n 1 9 8 1 t e r l e t a k a n t a r a 1 5 , 5 % — 1 6 , 5 % u n t u k " p r i m e l e n d e r s r a t e " d a n t e r g a n t u n g d a r i p a n j a n g - p e n d e k n y a m a s a w a k t u p i n j a m a n . B e s a r k e m u n g k i n a n b a b w a t i n g k a t b u n g a t e r s e b u t d i j a n g k a p e n d e k ( y a i t u d a l a m s a t u t a b u n m e n d a t a n g ) a k a n m e n u r u n secara b e r a n g s u r s a m p a i p a d a t i n g k a t a n t a r a 1 1 , 5 % 1 3 , 5 % p a d a a k b i r t a b u n 1 9 8 2 . N a m u n , t i n g k a t -t i n g k a -t b u n g a s e p e r -t i i -t u m a s i b d i a n g g a p -t i n g g i k a l a u d i u k u r d e n g a n p a -t o k a n b i s t o r i s , d a n k u r a n g m e m b e r i p e l u a n g a t a u p e r a n g s a n g b a g i k e g i a t a n i n v e s t a s i . L a g i p u l a , k a l a u k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i — k e u a n g a n p e m e r i n t a h R e a g a n ( y a n g d i i k u t i o l e b p e m e r i n t a h I n g g e r i s d a n b e b e r a p a n e g a r a E r o p a B a r a t ) t i d a k m e n g a l a m i p e r u b a b a n d a n t e t a p d i l a n j u t k a n d i t a b u n - t a b u n m e n d a t a n g , m a k a d i k u a t i r k a n b a b w a d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 3 t i n g k a t b u n g a a k a n m e n i n g k a t l a g i . p a d a saat i n i s u d a b s e m a k i n d i s a n g s i k a n o l e b k a l a n g a n y a n g b e r p e n g a r u b d a n y a n g s e m a k i n m e l u a s d a l a m d u n i a i n t e r n a s i o n a l , b a b w a k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i - k e u a n g a n p e m e r i n t a h R e a g a n a k a n m e m b a w a b a s i l . K e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i t e r m a k s u d b e r p o k o k p a d a a p a y a n g d i s e b u t s e b a g a i "supply-side economics", d e n g a n k o m b i n a s i s u a t u p o U t i k m o n e t e r y a n g k e t a t - r e s t r i k t i f . H a k e k a t d a l a m a l a m p i k i r a n " s u p p l y - s i d e e c o n o m i c s " i a l a b m e n g u r a n g i t i n g k a t d a n b e b a n p e r p a j a k a n b a g i g o l o n g a n y a n g b e r p e n d a p a t a n t i n g g i . D i b a r a p k a n b a b w a m e l a l u i j a l a n i t u j u m l a b t a b u n g a n b e r -t a m b a b ; s e l a n j u -t n y a -t a b u n g a n ( d i b a r a p k a n ) a k a n d i s a l u r k a n p a d a i n v e s -t a s i p r o d u k t i f . P r o s e s i n i a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d a n m e l u a s k a n l a p a n g a n k e r j a , d a n a k h i r n y a p e n e r i m a a n a n g g a a n a k a n n a i k j u g a k a r e n a j u m l a b p a j a k secara m e n y e l u r u b b e r t a m b a b s e b a g a i b a s i l e k s p a n s i k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i . S e d a n g k a n i n f l a s i a k a n m e r e d a , k a r e n a b e r t a m b a b n y a a r u s b a r a n g d a n j a s a . D a l a m p a d a i t u , p e n g e l u a r a n a n g g a r a n r u t i n b e s e r t a segala r u p a p e n g e l u a r a n y a n g b e r s i f a t s o s i a l d a n d i a n g g a p t i d a k p r o d u k t i f j u g a b a r u s d i k u r a n g i secara d r a s t i s . S e m e n t a r a p r o s e s i n i s e d a n g b e r j a l a n , s a t u s a m a l a i n b a l i t u d i s e r t a i o l e b k e b i j a k s a n a a n m o n e t e r y a n g k e t a t u n t u k m e n g a w a s i d a n m e n g u a s a i a r u s s u p p l y u a n g . P e n g a w a s a n m o n e t e r b u k a n d i d a s a r k a n a t a s p e n g a w a s a n 3 6 8 E K I , V o l . X X I X , N o . 4 , D e c e m b e r 1 9 8 1
k w a n t i t a t i f , m e l a i n k a n d e n g a n m e n y e r a h k a n b i a y a / h a r g a t e n t a n g u a n g (cyst o f money) k e p a d a k e k u a t a n k e k u a t a n p a s a r u a n g d a n m o d a l . D a l a m l i u b u q -a n i n i l -a h m e k -a n i s m e t i n g k -a t b u n g -a d i b e r i p e r -a n -a n u t -a m -a d e n g -a n m e l e p -a s k i n n y a u n t u k m e n c a p a i t i n g k a t n y a s e n d i r i , sesuai d e n g a n p e n a w a r a n d a n j. e i m i n t a a n y a n g m e n y a n g k u t p i n j a m a n u a n g ( j a n g k a p e n d e k m a u p u n j a n ^ ^ p a n j a n g ) . B e r d a s a r k a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i — k e u a n g a n — m o n e t e r y a n g u n g k a p k a n d i a t a s d a n y a n g s e l a m a i n i d i l a k s a n a k a n o l e h p e m e r i n t a h R e a f a i i , m a k a s e l a m a s e b a g i a n b e s a r t a b u n 1 9 8 1 t i n g k a t b u n g a d i A m e r i k a S e r i c a t t e l a b m e m b u b u n g t i n g g i ( s a m p a i m e l a m p a u i 2 0 % p e r t a b u n ) d e n g a n segal^ a k i b a t b e r a n t a i , y a n g j u g a m e r u g i k a n p e r e k o n o m i a n E r o p a B a r a t d a n b a g i a n -b a g i a n d u n i a l a i n n y a . 4. j K e l e m a b a n p o k o k y a n g m e l e k a t p a d a m a z b a b s u p p l y - s i d e e c o n o n i i q s b e r k i s a r p a d a p e r m a s a l a h a n d a n p e r t a n y a a n : s a m p a i b e r a p a j a u b j u n l a j b t a b u n g a n i t u m e m a n g a k a n t e r s a l u r k e b i d a n g i n v e s t a s i p r o d u k t i f ; s e l a i n i l u a p a k a b p r o s e s p e n j e l m a a n t a b u n g a n m e n j a d i i n v e s t a s i t e r s e l e n g g a r a k a n d a a m j a n g k a w a k t u r e l a t i f p e n d e k , a t a u k a b s e l a m a w a k t u l a m a y a n g t i d a k m e n e i t u (indefinite period) p a r a c a l o n i n v e s t o r m a s i b r a g u - r a g u d a n m e n u n j u k c a n
s u a t u s i k a p " m e n u n g g u d a n m e U b a t d u l u " ( w a i t and see). S e b a b i k l i m i n rest a s i k i n i m e n g a n d u n g s e r a n g k a i a n f a k rest o r k e rest i d a k p a s rest i a n y a n g b e r b a g a i n i -c a m s i f a t n y a , y a n g s e m u a n y a s a n g a t m e m p e n g a r u h i p a n d a n g a n d a n p e r k u a i n c a l o n i n v e s t o r t e n t a n g p e r k e m b a n g a n m a s a d e p a n . A p a l a g i k a l a u t i n j k a t b u n g a y a n g t i n g g i t e l a b m e n a i k k a n b i a y a p i n j a m a n y a n g s e l a l u d i p e r l u k a n d a -l a m i n v e s t a s i p r o y e k - p r o y e k y a n g b e r a r t i . D a l a m b a l d e m i k i a n m u n g k i n s e k a l i m e r e k a m e r a s a l e b i b b e r f a e d a b d a n 1< b i b a m a n u n t u k m e n d e p o s i t o k a n t a b u n g a n n y a d e n g a n m e n d a p a t balasjasa p m e -r i m a a n b u n g a y a n g m e m a d a i ( t e t a p i j e l a s i n v e s t a s i p -r o d u k t i f t i d a k t e -r w u j i c ) . A t a u p u n , y a n g l e b i b b u r u k l a g i d a l a m s u a t u k e a d a a n resesi a t a u d e p e a , s e b a g i a n t a b u n g a n i t u d i p e r g u n a k a n u n t u k k o n s u m s i b e r l e b i b d e b i b a n j ajig m e n y o l o k (excessive conspicuous consumption).
B a g a i m a n a p u n j u g a , k e n y a t a a n m e n a n d a k a n b a b w a s a m p a i s e k a t a h g k e b i j a k s a n a a n e k o n o m i p e m e r i n t a h R e a g a n t i d a k m e m b a w a b a s i l seb; g i i m a n a s e m u l a d i n y a t a k a n n y a d a n d i d e n g u n g k a n n y a . D a l a m p a d a i t u , w i l a u -p u n t e l a b d i a d a k a n -p e n g u r a n g a n d r a s t i s t e r b a d a -p b e r b a g a i r u -p a -p e n g e l u i r m p e m e r i n t a h , t e t a p i d i l a i n p i b a k a n g g a r a n u n t u k p e r s e n j a t a a n sangat d p i u
-4 Lihat juga Tinjauan-tinjauan Triwulan yang dimuat terdahulu tahun ini dalam ip^a-lah EKI: Vol. XXIX, No. 2, juni 1981; Vol. XXIX' No. 3, September 1981
b e s a r . S e b i n g g a o l e b k a l a n g a n p e m e r i n t a b R e a g a n s e n d i r i t e l a b d i a k u i b a b w a s a s a r a n n y a u n t u k m e n y u s u n s u a t u a n g g a r a n b e r i m b a n g d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 4 t i d a k a k a n t e r c a p a i . P e r k e m b a n g a n t e r s e b u t m e n d o r o n g k e a r a b m e m p e r c e p a t l a j u p e r t a m -b a -b a n u a n g d a l a m p e r e d a r a n , y a n g t e n t u a k a n m e n a m -b a -b t e k a n a n i n i l a t o r . D a l a m r a n g k a k e b i j a k s a n a a n s e p e r t i y a n g k i n i d i l a k u k a n , s a t u s a m a l a i n b a l i t u a k a n d i t a n g g u l a n g i d e n g a n m e n a i k k a n t i n g k a t b u n g a l a g i u n t u k m e m b e n -d u n g b a b a y a i n f l a s i . K e a -d a a n s e a k a n - a k a n b e r a -d a -d a l a m U n g k a r a n y a n g t a k b e r u j u n g p a n g k a l . I t u l a b l a t a r b e l a k a n g k e k u a t i r a n b a b w a t i n g k a t b u n g a d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t a k a n m e l o n j a k l a g i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 3 , j i k a t i d a k a d a p e r u -b a -b a n p a d a p o l a k e -b i j a k s a n a a n s e k a r a n g . K e l e s u a n a t a u s t a g n a s i d a l a m p e r k e m b a n g a n e k o n o m i d e n g a n d i s e r t a i o l e b gejala i n f l a s i , s e p e r t i y a n g d i a l a m i d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a m a j u d a l a m d a s a w a r s a 1 9 7 0 sejak t a b u n 1 9 7 4 t e l a b d i s e b u t secara p o p u l e r sebagai "stagflation". N a m p a k n y a u n t u k w a k t u y a n g c u k u p l a m a k u r a n g d i s a d a r i b a b w a f e n o m e n a s t a g f l a t i o n b e r s u m b e r p a d a s e b a b - m u s a b a b k e k u a t a n d c e k u a t a n y a n g l e b i b m e n d a l a m y a n g b e r s i f a t s t r u k t u r a l . D a l a m t a b u n 1 9 7 3 / 7 4 t e l a b t e r j a d i l o n -j a k a n b a r g a m i n y a k b u m i d e n g a n e m p a t k a l i l i p a t , k e m u d i a n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 d e n g a n l e b i b d a r i d u a k a b b p a t . S a t u s a m a l a i n b a l i t u m e m b a w a r a m i f i k a s i y a n g sangat l u a s ( a k i b a t p e n g a r u b y a n g b e r c a b a n g - c a b a n g d i b e r b a g a i b i d a n g d a n r a g a m k e g i a t a n ) . T e l a b t e r j a d i p e r u b a b a n - p e r u b a b a n y a n g m e n d a s a r d a n p e r m a n e n p a d a s t r u k t u r b i a y a d i a r g a d i b i d a n g i n d u s t r i d a n d a l a m d u n i a p e r -e k o n o m i a n p a d a u m u m n y a . P -e r k -e m b a n g a n t -e r s -e b u t m -e m b a w a p -e r g -e s -e r a n s t r u k t u r a l a n t a r - i n d u s t r i d a n a n t a r - s e k t o r . L a g i p u l a , t i n g k a t p r o d u k t i v i t a s d i E r o p a B a r a t d a n d i A m e r i k a S e r i k a t s e j a u b a k b i r d a s a w a r s a 1 9 6 0 / a w a l d a s a w a r s a 1 9 7 0 n a m p a k n y a t e l a b m e n u r u n secara a b s o l u t m a u p u n secara r e l a t i f , a r t i n y a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n J e p a n g d a n negara-negaga i n d u s t r i " b a r u " s e p e r t i K o r e a S e l a t a n , T a i w a n , H o n g k o n g , S i n g a p o r e , B r a s i l d a n s e b a g a i n y a . H a l i t u t e r a s a b u k a n b a n y a d i b i d a n g i n d u s t r i r i n g a n ( t e k s t i l , k u l i t , b a r a n g b a r a n g i n d u s t r i k a r e t , e l e k t r o m k a ) , m e l a i n -k a n j u g a d a l a m b e b e r a p a j e n i s i n d u s t r i b e r a t s e p e r t i -k e n d a r a a n b e r m o t o r , a l a t a l a t b e s a r , i n d u s t r i m e s i n , p e n g g a l a n g a n k a p a l d a n i n d u s t r i b a j a . K e t i n g -g a l a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s t e r s e b u t a d a l a b a k i b a t s e r a n -g k a i a n b e r b a -g a i f a k t o r s e p e r t i p o l a p e n g e l o l a a n {management patterns) y a n g k u r a n g m e m a d a i t u n t u t a n j a m a n , s i k a p k e l a k u k a n g o l o n g a n t e n a g a k e r j a d a n j u g a t e k n o l o g i y a n g sea k sea n sea k sea n k u r sea n g d i p e r b sea b sea r u i secsearsea k o n t i n u d i i n d u s t r i i n d u s t r i b e r s sea n g k u t -a n . S e g a l a s e s u a t u y a n g d i s i n g g u n g d i atas m e n d a s a r i gejala " s t a g f l a t i o n " d a n p e n a n g g u l a n g a n n y a m e m e r l u k a n s u a t u p e r u b a b a n s t r u k t u r a l . T i a p m a s a l a h y a n g b e r s i f a t s t r u k t u r a l d a n p r o s e s p e n y e s u a i a n n y a t e r b a d a p p e r i m b a n g a n
p e r i m b a n g a n k e a d a a n y a n g s u d a h b e r u b a h secara p e r m a n e n b i a s a n y a m e n ei -l u k a n m a s a w a k t u y a n g a g a k -l a m a . K i n i n e g a r a m e g a r a i n d u s t r i d i E r o p a B i r a t d a n d i A m e r i k a U t a r a s e d a n g b e r a d a d a l a m t a b a p p e n y e s u a i a n s e p e r t i y ^ g d i m a k s u d d i a t a s . P e r e k o n o m i a n d i Asia Tenggara ( k b u s u s n y a n e g a r a - n e g a r a a n g g j t a A S E A N ) d a n d i Asia Timur ( k b u s u s n y a K o r e a S e l a t a n , T a i w a n , H o n g k o n g , d i s a m p i n g J e p a n g ) 3 s e l a m a d a s a w a r s a 1 9 7 0 s a m p a i d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 8 0 t ( -l a b m e n u n j u k k a n k e m a j u a n y a n g sangat p e s a t . L a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o m n i m a u p u n t i n g k a t k e n a i k a n p e r d a g a n g a n l u a r n e g e r i d a r i n e g a r a - n e g a r a t e r s e ) U t d a l a m p e r i o d e i t u j a u b l e b i b t i n g g i , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n E r o p a B a r a t ( | a ) i A m e r i k a U t a r a m a u p u n d e n g a n b a g i a n - b a g i a n d u n i a l a i n n y a . | A k a n t e t a p i , m u l a i a w a l t a b u n 1 9 8 1 n e g a r a - n e g a r a d i A s i a T e n g g a r a d a b A s i a T i m u r sangat m e r a s a k a n a k i b a t b u r u k resesi p e r e k o n o m i a n d u n i a . P; ida u m u m n y a n e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n m e n g a l a m i k e m u n d u r a n d a l a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i m a u p u n d a l a m l a l u l i n t a s p e r d a g a n g a n d a n p e m b a > a: -a n l u -a r n e g e r i , d i b -a n d i n g k -a n d e n g -a n p e r k e m b -a n g -a n t -a b u n 1 9 8 0 ; t e r k e c i -a i K o r e a S e l a t a n , d i m a n a l a j u p e r t u m b u b a i m y a j u s t r u m e n i n g k a t d a l a m t a l j u p 1 9 8 1 s e t e l a b m e n g a l a m i k e m u n d u r a n d a l a m t a b u n s e b e l u m n y a . | K e m u n d u r a n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 1 s e p e r t i y a n g t e r l i b a t d i a t a s l a n g s u n g belr-t a l i a n d e n g a n m e n u r u i m y a e k s p o r y a n g sangabelr-t m e m p e n g a r u h i p r o d u k s i I a n p e n d a p a t a n d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n . P e r k e m b a n g a n pasar l i i i n e g e r i d a n b a r g a d i p a s a r d u n i a m e n j a d i sangat l e m a b b a g i k o m o d i t i - k o m o b :i n o n - m i n y a k d a n gas b u m i , s e p e r t i d a l a m b a l b a r a n g m i n e r a l ( n i k e l , t e m b i ga, t i m a b ) , d a n b a s i l b u m i ( k a r e t , k o p i , t e b , k o p r a d a n m i n y a k k e l a p a , b i j i saw: d a n m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t , t a p i o k a ) . S e d a n g k a n e k s p o r b a r a n g - b a r a n g i n d u m e n g a l a m i s i k a p y a n g s e m a k i n p r o t e k s i o n i s d a r i p i b a k negara-negara M E ^ d a n A m e r i k a S e r i k a t . H a m p i r s e m u a n e g a r a d i A s i a T e n g g a r a d a n A s i a T i m u r d a l a m t a l u n 1 9 8 1 m e n g a l a m i d e f i s i t y a n g c u k u p b e s a r p a d a t r a n s a k s i b e r j a l a n d a l a i p n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n n y a ( t e r k e c u a l i J e p a n g y a n g d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 1 b e r b i s f l u n t u k m e n c a p a i s u r p l u s l a g i l i b a t d i m u k a ) . D e f i s i t - d e f i s i t y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n b a r u s d i t u t u p d e n g a n p e m a s u k a n m o d a l l u a r n e g e r i a t a u d e n g a n p i n j a n j i a | i l u a r n e g e r i a t a u d e n g a n p e n g g u n a a n sebagian c a d a n g a n d e v i s a , a t a u p u n n g a n l a n g k a b k e b i j a k s a n a a n i t u . K e m u n d u r a n d a l a m l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n d a n e k s p o r , s e l a i n m e n g u r a n ^ p e n e r i m a a n d e v i s a d a n p e n e r i m a a n a n g g a r a n p e m e r i n t a b , j u g a m e m p e r t a j a m
5 Pada tahap ini Korea Selatan, Taiwan, Hongkong dan juga Singapore diantara n
!ga-ra-negara anggota ASEAN, sudah digolongkan dalam Kategori "newly industrial zed
developing countries" (NIDC's).
i t l i
b e b a n p e n g a n g g u r a n . B a g i n e g a r a n e g a r a p r o d u s e n / e k s p o r t i r k o m o d i t i p e r t a -n i a -n h a l i t u s a -n g a t t e r a s a k a r e -n a b e r k u r a -n g -n y a p e -n d a p a t a -n p a r a p r o d u s e -n , k b u s u s n y a b a g i g o l o n g a n p e t a n i k e c i l . P e r k i r a a n t e n t a n g t a b u n 1 9 8 2 ( y a n g p a d a saat i n i m a s i b b e r s i f a t s a n g a t s e m e n t a r a d a n m e m e r l u k a n p e n g a m a t a n l e b i b l a n j u t d a n p e n e l a a h a n l e b i b m e n d a l a m ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a n e g a r a - n e g a r a d i A s i a T e n g g a r a d a n A s i a T i m u r d a p a t m e m p e r t a h a n k a n k e g i a t a n e k o n o m i n y a p a d a t i n g k a t y a n g s a m a s e p e r t i d i t a b u n 1 9 8 1 ; b a b k a n d i b e b e r a p a n e g a r a i n d u s t r i " b a r a " d i p e r k i r a k a n a k a n a d a p e r b a i k a n l a g i , s e p e r t i d i S i n g a p u r a , T a i w a n d a n H o n g -k o n g . L a j u P e r t u m b u h a n E k o n o m i d i B e b e r a p a N e g a r a A s i a T e n g g a r a d a n A s i a T i m u r % G D P R a t a - r a t a t a b u n a n 1 9 8 2 * ) 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 * ) A S E A N I n d o n e s i a ' 7 6 . . 9 , 6 7 , 0 6 , 5 - 7 , 0 M a l a y s i a 7 , 9 8 , 0 7 , 0 6 , 5 - 7 , 0 F i l i p i n a 6 , 2 5 , 4 4 , 5 5,5 S i n g a p o r e 8 , 4 1 0 , 2 9 , 0 9 , 5 T h a i l a n d 7 , 7 6 3 6 , 0 6 , 0 N I D C ' s K o r e a S e l a t a n 1 0 , 3 5 , 7 7 , 1 7 , 0 T a i w a n 6 3 5,5 8 , 0 H o n g k o n g 9 , 4 1 0 , 0 8 , 0 8,5 * ) P e r k i r a a n k a s a r d a n sangat s e m e n t a r a L a j u i n f l a s i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 1 p a d a u m u m n y a m e n u r u n , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 8 0 ( t e r k e c u a l i K o r e a S e l a t a n d a n S i n g a p o r e ) . S e l a i n d a r i k e b i j a k s a n a a n fiskalmoneter y a n g u m u m n y a b e r s i f a t k e t a t , m a k a m e n u r u n n y a i n f l a s i ada s a n g k u t p a u t n y a p u l a d e n g a n e f e k k o n t r a k s i m o n e t e r b e r b u -b u n g d e n g a n e k s p o r y a n g m e n j a d i -b e r k u r a n g .
L a j u I n f l a s i d i B e b e r a p a N e g a r a A s i a T e n g g a r a d a n A s i a T i m u r ( % , b e r d a s a r k a n I n d d c s H a r g a K o n s u m e n ) A S E A N I n d o n e s i a M a l a y s i a F i l i p i n a T h a i l a n d S i n g a p o r e N I D C ' s K o r e a S e l a t a n H o n g k o n g T a i w a n R a t a - r a t a t a b u n a n 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 9 2 0 , 1 7 , 3 1 3 , 3 9 , 5 5 , 5 1 9 , 5 7 , 9 1 9 8 0 1 6 , 5 6 , 7 1 7 , 5 1 9 , 7 8,5 2 0 , 0 1 5 , 5 2 0 , 0 1 9 8 1 7 , 1 9 , 0 1 1 , 0 2 2 , 0 9 , 5 2 4 , 0 1 4 , 0 1 4 , 0 1 9 8 2 1 3 , 0 7 , 0 1 3 , 0 1 8 , 0 7 , 0 1 8 , 0 1 0 , 0 9 , 0 * ) P e r k i r a a n k a s a r d a n sangat s e m e n t a r a . 1.2. P e r k e m b a n g a n P e f e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a . ' P e r k e m b a n g a n p e r e k o n o m i a n d u n i a s e p e r t i d i u n g k a p k a n d i m u k a t e l a b m e m b a w a p e n g a r u b y a n g b e r a r t i t e r b a d a p p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s a H a r g a k o m o d i t i - k o m o d i t i s e p e r t i d i a n t a r a n y a : k a r e t , k a y u , , k o p i , k e p i b s a w i t , t e b , l a d a t e l a b m e n u r u n . D e m i k i a n p u l a m e n g e n a i b a r a n g - b a r a n g r i i n e r a l s e p e r t i n i k e l , t e m b a g a d a n a k b i r - a k b i r i n i j u g a t i m a b . S a t u s a m a b i r b a l i t u m e m u k u l e k s p o r k i t a d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i d a n gas a l a m . D a l a m p a d a i t u p e m e r i n t a b s e n d i r i t e l a b m e l a k u k a n b e b e r a p a l a n g k d t i n d a k a n y a n g b e r d a s a r k a n p e r t i m b a n g a n - p e r t i m b a n g a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n tert< n t u m e m b a w a a k i b a t u n t u k m e m b a t a s i / m e n g u r a n g i e k s p o r s e p e r t i d a l a m h a k a y u g e l o n d o n g a n , m i n y a k s a w i t , u d a n g s e g a r / b e k u , s e m e n , p u p u k u r p U n t u k m a s a 8 b u l a n p e r t a m a 1 9 8 1 d i p e r o l e h g a m b a r a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t
P e r u b a h a n d a l a m 8 b u l a n p e r t a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 1 d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n 8 b u l a n p e r t a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 0 B e r a t ( t o n ) N i l a i ( 1 0 0 0 d o U a r A S ) 1 Olal cKSpOi - 1 2 , 7 8 % 0 , 4 6 % iVilliydJv I l l C U l d i l U a l l l l a d U - l m d i l l i y d - 2 , 7 1 % 1 2 , 5 5 % G a s a l a m - 6 , 8 0 % 1 2 3 8 % D i l u a r m i n y a k d a n G a s a l a m - 3 6 , 9 5 % - 2 8 , 1 1 % D i l u a r m i n y a k , gas a l a m , m i n y a k s a w i t , k a y u , s e m e n , p u p u k u r e a d a n u d a n g . - 2 2 , 4 8 % - 1 5 3 1 % E k s p o r d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i d a n gas a l a m s e l u r u h n y a d e n g a n 3 7 % d a l a m b a l b e r a t d a n 2 8 % d a l a m b a l n i l a i . K a l a u d i s i s i b k a n k o m o d i t i - k o m o d i t i y a n g e k s p o r n y a m e m a n g sengaja d i b a t a s i o l e b b e b e r a p a t i n d a k a n p e m e r i n t a b , m a k a d a p a t d i k a t a k a n b a b w a p e n u m n a n e k s p o r d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i d a n gas a l a m y a n g d i p e n g a r a b i o l e b resesi i a l a b 2 3 % d a l a m b a l b e r a t d a n 1 5 % da-l a m b a da-l n i da-l a i . S e j a u b y a n g m e n y a n g k u t n e r a c a p e m b a y a r a n a d a 3 b a l p o k o k y a n g m e n o n j o l . P e r t a m a , n i l a i e k s p o r m i n y a k t i d a k m e n i n g k a t . K e d u a , n i l a i e k s p o r d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i d a q gas a l a m m e n u r u n . K e t i g a , i m p o r d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i d a n gas a l a m t e r n s m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n k e n a i k a n s e k i t a r 2 5 % p e r t a b u n . P e r k e m b a n g a n i n i m e m a k a i d e v i s a y a n g c u k u p b e s a r sebingga c a -d a n g a n -d e v i s a y a n g a -d a m u n g k i n n k a n t e r p a k a i u n t u k i m p o r . P e r k e m b a n g a n t e r s e b u t d i atas t e n t u m e m p e n g a r a b i A P B N . P e n d a p a t a n d a r i m i n y a k b u m i d i p e r k i r a k a n t i d a k n a i k s e d a n g k a n p e n e r i m a a n d i l u a r m i n y a k b u m i n a i k d e n g a n 2 0 % s a m p a i 3 0 % . H a l i t u b e r a r t i b a b w a A P B N b a n y a m a m p u u n t u k n a i k d e n g a n 6 % s a m p a i 9 % . W a l a u p u n f a k t o r f a k t o r d i l u a r n e g e r i k u r a n g m e n g u n t u n g k a n p e r -e k o n o m i a n I n d o n -e s i a , n a m u n k -e k u a t a n d c -e k u a t a n d i d a l a m n -e g -e r i m a s i b d a p a t m e m p e r t a h a n k a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i y a n g c u k u p t i n g g i , y a i t u s e k i t a r 7 % . S e k t o r - s e k t o r s e p e r t i p e r t a n i a n ( t e m t a m a s u b s e k t o r p a n g a n ) , k o n s t m k s i , i n d u s t r i d a n p e n g a n g k u t a n m a s i b t u m b u b d e n g a n l a j u y a n g m e m a d a i . P e r k e m b a n g a n t e r s e b u t m e n o l o n g p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i secara k e s e l u r u b a n .
I I . Beberapa Indikator Perkembangan Produksi II. 1. Perkembangan Produksi Minyak Bumi
S e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 p r o d u k s i m i n y a k b u m i I n d o n e s i a m e n i n g k i t d e n g a n r a t a - r a t a 6 , 8 % p e r t a b u n . P a d a T a b e l 1 d a p a t d i l i b a t b a b w a m u l d d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 7 8 p r o d u k s i m i n y a k k i t a m e n u r u n . P r o d u k s i y a n g m e n u n J n i n i d i s e b a b k a n o l e b b e r k u r a n g n y a k e g i a t a n e k s p l o r a s i d a n p e n g e m b a n ^ n prja d u k s i s e j a k t a b u n 1 9 7 6 , s e t e l a b s y a r a t - s y a r a t k o n t r a k b a g i b a s i l d i r u b a b o l P e m e r i n t a b R e p u b l i k I n d o n e s i a y a n g m e n e t a p k a n b a b w a p e m b a g i a n k e u i n t u n g a n m e n j a d i 8 5 b a n d i n g 1 5 . K e m u d i a n s i k a p p e r u s a b a a n - p e r u s a b a a n r d n y a k b e r u b a b d a l a m r a n g k a p e r k e m b a n g a n i n t e r n a s i o n a l s e l a n j u t n y a . N a m p a k n y a u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 1 i i u p r o d u k s i m i n y a k I n d o n e s i a a k a n i b e n i n g k a t l a g i . P a d a 4 b u l a n p e r t a m a t a b u n 1 9 8 1 p r o d u k s i k i t a m e n c a p a i 1 9 - 1 3 j u t a b a r r e l s a t a u 1,6 j u t a b a r r e l s p e r b a r i . K e n a i k a n p r o d u k s i m i n y a k d i b a r k a n bisa m e m e n u b i k e b u t u b a n B B M ( B a b a n B a k a r M i n y a k ) d i d a l a m n e g e i i .
II.2. Perkembangan Produksi Beras
D a r i Tabel 2 d a p a t d i l i b a t b a b w a s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 , p r o d u k s i beras s e l a l u m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n k e n a i k a n r a t a - r a t a sebesar 4 , 5 % p e r tal LU|n. K e n a i k a n p r o d u k s i t e r s e b u t j a u b l e b i b t i n g g i , d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n k e n a k ^ n p e n d u d u k r a t a - r a t a u n t u k p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a y a i t u sebesar 23%. Selaijna m a s a R e p e U t a I ( 1 9 6 8 / 1 9 6 9 s a m p a i 1 9 7 3 / 1 9 7 4 ) k o n s u m s i b e r a s p e r k pjita a d a l a b 1 1 0 k g d a n p a d a a k b i r P e l i t a 1 k o n s u m s i beras m e n c a p a i 1 4 0 k ; ^ e r k a p i t a . S e m a s a P e l i t a 1 p e r b a t i a n P e m e r i n t a b m e m a n g d i p u s a t k a n p a d a }ce-n a i k a }ce-n p r o d u k s i b e r a s d e }ce-n g a }ce-n j a l a }ce-n i }ce-n t e }ce-n s i f i k a s i a }ce-n t a r a l a i }ce-n m e l a l u i perb; l i k a }ce-n i r i g a s i d a n p e n e r a p a n t e b n o l o g i b a r u . D a l a m p r o g r a m i n t e n s i f i k a s i s e p e r t i B I M A S . I N M A S d a n p r o g r a n j p r o g r a m y a n g s e r u p a B a n k I n d o n e s i a u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 7 9 / 1 9 8 0 m e n y e d i a k a n k r e d i t sebesar R p . 4 1 9 m i l y a r y a n g d i k e l u a r k a n u n t u k s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n d a n p p m -b u a t a n i r i g a s i . D a l a m P e l i t a I I I t e r j a d i p e r g e s e r a n y a n g c u k u p drastis p a d a s t r a t e g i pre d j i k s i b e r a s , k i n i p e r b a t i a n d i a l i b k a n p a d a p r o g r a m e x t e n s i f i k a s i a r e a l p e r t i i j i a n . B e b e r a p a a r e a l p e r s a w a b a n b a r u d i b u k a d i b e b e r a p a t e m p a t d i w i l a y a m l i j i d o -n e s i a . D i s a m p i -n g p r o g r a m - p r o g r a m i -n t e -n s i f i k a s i d a -n e x t e -n s i f i k a s i , P e m e r i -n t a b j u g a m e n j a l a n k a n k e b i j a k s a n a a n s u b s i s i b a r g a b e r a s d e n ^ n t u j u a n a g a r p p r b e -d a a n y a n g t e r l a l u m e n y o l o k a n t a r a b a r g a b e r a s i m p o r -d e n g a n b e r a s p r > 4 u k s i d a l a m n e g e r i d a p a t d i j e m b a t a n i . U n t u k t a b u n 1 9 7 9 / 1 9 8 0 P e m e r i n t a l m e m -b e r i k a n s u -b s i d i u n t u k -b e r a s se-besar R p . 2 0 5 m i l y a r .
D a l a m t a h u n 1 9 8 0 p r o d u k s i beras I n d o n e s i a m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 1 3 % y a i t u d a r i 1 7 ^ 1 8 r i b u t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 m e n j a d i 2 0 ^ 4 6 r i b u t o n d i t a h u n 1 9 8 0 . I m p o r b e r k u r a n g d e n g a n 4 2 % y a i t u d a r i 2 , 6 j u t a t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 m e n j a d i 1,5 j u t a t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 0 . U n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 1 d i p e r k i r a k a n p r o d u k s i beras m a s i b a k a n t e r u s n a i k d e n g a n 9 % y a i t u d a r i 2 0 ^ 4 6 j u t a t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 0 m e n j a d i 2 2 , 0 6 8 j u t a t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 1 . D e n g a n k e n a i k a n p r o d u k s i b e r a s s e l a m a b e b e r a p a t a b u n y a n g s u -d a b , m a k a i m p o r b e r a s u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 1 -d i p e r k i r a k a n -d a p a t -d i k u r a n g n i - de-n g a de-n s e k i t a r 6 6 % , y a i t u d a r i 1,5 j u t a t o de-n d i t a b u de-n 1 9 8 0 m e de-n j a d i 0 , 5 j u t a t o de-n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 1 . D a l a m p a d a i t u , m e n i n g k a t n y a p r o d u k s i beras m e n i m b u l k a n m a s a l a h p u l a y a i t u m e n g e n a i k u r a n g n y a t e m p a t p e n y i m p a n a n m a u p u n c a r a p e n y i m -T a b e l 1 P r o d u k s i M i n y a k B u m i D i I n d o n e s i a 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 1 T a h u n J u m l a h P r o d u k s i K e n a i k a n ( b a r r e l s ) ( % ) 1 9 7 0 3 1 1 . 5 5 1 . 8 3 4 1 9 7 1 3 2 5 . 6 7 2 . 5 0 0 4 , 5 1 9 7 2 3 9 5 . 5 8 0 . 8 2 6 2 1 , 5 1 9 7 3 4 8 8 . 5 3 6 . 2 3 0 2 3 , 5 1 9 7 4 5 0 1 . 8 3 7 . 8 0 0 2 , 7 1 9 7 5 4 7 6 . 8 5 4 . 9 5 1 5 , 0 1 9 7 6 5 5 0 3 1 8 . 6 3 6 1 5 , 4 1 9 7 7 6 1 5 . 1 2 2 . 7 7 7 \ J - 1 1 , 8 1 9 7 8 5 9 6 . 6 9 8 4 2 0 * f - 3 , 0 1 9 7 9 5 8 0 . 4 4 6 . 6 5 8 2 , 7 1 9 8 0 5 7 6 . 9 6 9 . 0 1 4 0 , 6 0 , 6 1 9 8 1 1 9 4 . 8 2 8 . 2 2 5 ^ ) S u m b e r : D i o l a h d a r i B P S , I n d i k a t o r E k o n o m i , J u U 1 9 8 1 . 1 ) D e p a r t e m e n P e r t a m b a n g a n , p r o d u k s i s a m p a i d e n g a n b u l a n A p r i l t a b u n 1 9 8 1 .
p a n a n y a n g t e p a t y a n g m e m e r l u k a n t e h n o l o g i t e r s e n d i r l y a n g n a m p a k n y a b< l u m k i t a k u a s a i s e p e n u h n y a . W a l a u p u n s a s a r a n P e m e r i n t a h m e n g e n a i c a d a n j -a n b e r -a s b e r k i s -a r p -a d -a 5 j u t -a t o n , -a k -a n t e t -a p i s -a m p -a i p e r t e n g 3 b -a n t -a b u n 1 9 8 i c a d a n g a n b e r a s I n d o n e s i a b a r u m e n c a p a i 2 , 1 j u t a t o n . I I . 3 . P e r k e m b a n g a n P r o d u k s i P e r t a n i a n T e r p e n t i n g T a n a m a n p e r t a n i a n y a n g t e r p e n t i n g m e l i p u t i t a n a m a n b a b a n m a k a n a n s e p e r t b e r a s , p a d i , p a l a w i j a , s a y u r - m a y u r d a n b u a b - b u a b a n , s e r t a t a n a m a n p e r k e b u r a n y a n g h a s i l n y a s e b a g i a n b e s a r m e r u p a k a n k o m o d i t i e k s p o r , d i a n t a r a n y a k i -r e t , k o p i , t e b , c o k l a t , m i n y a k d a n b i j i k e l a p a s a w i t d a n s e b a g a i n y a . U n t u k t a n a m a n b a b a n m a k a n a n m a k a d a l a m b a g i a n 11.2 d i m u k a t e l a b d i u n g -k a p -k a n m e n g e n a i p e r -k e m b a n g a n p r o d u -k s i b e r a s . D a l a m b a g i a n s u b 1 1 3 u i p e r b a t i a n k i t a d i t u j u k a n p a d a p r o d u k s i b e b e r a p a j e n i s t a n a m a n p e r k e b u n a i T a b e l 2 P r o d u k s i D a n I m p o r B e r a s D i I n d o n e s i a 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 T a b u n P r o d u k s i ( 0 0 0 t o n s ) K e n a i k a n P r o s i ( % ) I m p o r ( 0 0 0 t o n s ) K e n a i k a n I m p o r ( % ) 1 9 7 0 1 9 7 1 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 3 . 1 4 0 1 3 . 7 2 4 1 3 . 1 8 3 1 4 . 6 0 7 1 5 . 2 7 6 1 5 . 1 8 5 1 5 . 8 4 5 1 5 . 8 7 6 1 7 . 5 2 5 1 7 . 9 1 8 2 0 . 2 4 6 2 2 , 0 6 8 1 ) 3 ) 4 , 4 4 , 0 1 0 , 8 4 , 6 0 , 6 4 3 0 , 2 1 0 , 4 2 , 2 1 3 , 0 9 7 6 4 5 2 4 1 . 2 2 0 1 . 2 2 5 1 . 1 3 7 6 7 0 1 . 5 0 6 2 3 0 3 1 . 2 7 7 2 . 5 8 0 1 . 5 0 0 5 0 0 4 ) 2 ) 3 1 , 4 1 3 2 , 8 0 , 4 7 3 4 1 , 1 1 2 4 , 8 5 3 , 0 4 4 , 6 1 0 2 , 0 4 1 3 6 6 , 7 S u m b e r : D a t a C o n s u l t N o . 1 5 8 1 ) B P S , I n d i k a t o r E k o n o m i , M e i t a b u n 1 9 8 1 , ,, ,^ 2 ) D a t a C o n s u l t N o . 1 5 8 3 ) A n g k a p e r k i r a a n 4 ) A n g k a p e r k i r a a n
y a n g s e b a g i a n b e s a r m e r u p a k a n b a b a n e k s p o r , l i b a t T a b e l 3 . D a l a m t a b e l t e r s e b u t t e r l i b a t p e r k e m b a n g a n p r o d u k s i b e b e r a p a k o m o d i t i p e r -k e b u n a n : (1) Karet P r o d u k s i k a r e t s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n t i n g k a t k e n a i k -a n r -a t -a - r -a t -a 1 3 % p e r t -a b u n . M e n u r u t D e p -a r t e m e n P e r d -a g -a n g -a n d -a n K o p e r -a s i d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 7 9 p r o d u k s i k a r e t a l a m I n d o n e s i a b e r j u m l a b s e k i t a r 8 5 0 r i b u t o n , d i a n t a r a n y a 5 7 0 r i b u t o n b a s i l p e r k e b u n a n r a k y a t s e d a n g s i s a n y a b a s i l p e r k e b u n a n b e s a r . P r o d u k s i k a r e t a l a m m a s i b m e m p u n y a i p r o s p e k c e r a b d a l a m j a n g k a p a n -j a n g o l e b k a r e n a d i p e r k i r a k a n b a b w a k o n s u m s i k a r e t d u n i a m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 4 % p e r t a b u n . K a r e t a l a m d a l a m b a r g a n y a k i n i a k a n d a p a t b e r s a i n g d e n g a n b a r g a k a r e t s i n t e t i s . D i I n g g e r i s , d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 7 8 b a r g a k a r e t s i n t e t i s s u d a b m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 2 0 9 % d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 7 2 , d a n d i I t a l i a d a -l a m w a k t u y a n g s a m a k e n a i k a n i t u m e n c a p a i 2 2 6 % . (2) Kopi P r o d u k s i k o p i I n d o n e s i a d a r i p e r k e b u n a n b e s a r m e n g a l a m i k e n a i k a n r a t a - r a t a sebesar 7 3 % s e t i a p t a b u n s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 . S e d a n g k a n p r o d u k s i k o p i s e h i r u b n y a ( t e r m a s u k p r o d u k s i p e r k e b u n a n r a k y a t ) s e l a m a 5 t a b u n t e r a k b i r m e n i n g k a t d a r i 1 6 0 r i b u t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 5 m e n j a d i 2 2 3 r i b u t o n d i t a -b u n 1 9 7 9 , a t a u n a i k d e n g a n 3 9 % . D a l a m p e r i o d e y a n g s a m a e k s p o r k o p i m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 7 2 % , d a r i 1 2 5 r i b u t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 5 m e n j a d i 2 2 0 r i b u t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 . S e b a g i a n b e s a r p r o d u k s i k o p i I n d o n e s i a a d a l a b u n t u k e k s p o r s e d a n g s i s a n y a d i g u n a k a n u n t u k k o m s u m s i d a l a m n e g e r i . S e j a k d i t e t a p k a i m y a k u o t a e k s p o r o l e b I . C . O . ( I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o f f e e O r g a n i z a t i o n ) e k s p o r k o p i I n d o n e s i a s a n g a t m e n u r u n , sebingga b a r g a k o p i d i p a s a r a n d a l a m n e g e r i s a n g a t m e r o s o t , w a l a u p u n u s a b a m e n g e k s p o r k o p i k e n e g a r a n o n J c u o t a t e r u s d i l a k u k a n .
(3) Minyak Kelapa Sawit dan Biji Sawit 6
P r o d u k s i m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t d a n b i j i s a w i t u n t u k p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 m e -n i -n g k a t d e -n g a -n r a t a - r a t a 1 2 , 4 % u -n t u k m i -n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t d a -n 9 , 7 % u -n t u k
6) Peilhal Masalah Minyak Nabati, Ifliat pembahasannya dalam linjauan Triwulan da-lam Majalah EKI, Vol. XXK, No. 1, Maiet 1981.
b i j i s a w i t . L u a s a r e a l k e l a p a s a w i t d i I n d o n e s i a seluas 2 5 0 . 1 1 6 b a , d i m a n a 6 5 , 4 % n y a d i m i l i k i o l e b P T / P N P e r k e b u n a n d a n s i s a n y a 3 4 , 6 % d i k u a s a i o l e i P e m s a b a a n S w a s t a . S a m p a i d e n g a n t a b u n 1 9 7 9 a d a 7 3 p e r k e b u n a n y a n g m e n ^ a s i l k a n m i n y a k d i m a n a s e b a g i a n b e s a r j u m l a b i t u t e r l e t a k d i S u m a t e r a U t a r a , s e d a n g k a p y a n g l a i n n y a d i J a w a B a r a t . D i p e r k i r a k a n d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 2 p r o d u k s i m i n y a k s a w i t I n d o n e s i a a k a l n m e n c a p a i 1 , 0 j u t a t o n . H a l t e r s e b u t m e r u p a k a n b a s i l p e r l u a s a n p e r k e b u n a n d a n p a b r i k ^ a b r i k m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t ( d e b P N P I d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k sebesar 8 6 . 4 0 0 t o n p e r t a b u n , P T P I I d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i 3 2 . 0 0 0 t o n p e r t a b u n , s e r t a P T P V I d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i 4 7 , 1 6 0 t o n p e r t a b u n . P a b r i k p a b r i k m i n y a k k e l a p a s a w i t t e r s e b u t b a r u a k a n m u l a i b e r p r o d u k s i d i -1 a m t a b u n -1 9 8 3 . P a d a s a a t i n i 9 0 % d a r i s e l u r u b p r o d u k s i m i n y a k k e l a p a a d a l a b u n t u k k o n s u m s i d a l a m n e g e r i , d a n s i s a n y a d i e k s p o r . S e b a g i a n b e s a r e k s p o r m i n y a c k e l a p a s a w i t I n d o n e s i a d i t u j u k a n k e I r a k , B e l a n d a d a n P a k i s t a n , s e d a n g k a i s i s a n y a k e I n d i a , J e r m a n B a r a t , U S A , K e n y a , I n g g e r i s , K a n a d a d a n J e p a n g . (4) Gula Tebu P r o d u k s i g u l a t e b u s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 m e n u n j u k k a n t i n g k a t k e n a i (-a n r (-a t (-a - r (-a t (-a sebes(-ar 5 , 7 % p e r t (-a b u n . K e n (-a i k (-a n p r o d u k s i t e r s e b u t m e n y (-a n g k i t p r o d u k s i p e r k e b u n a n b e s a r y a n g d i k e l o l a o l e b P T / P N P e r k e b u n a n . K i r a d d i a 8 0 % d a r i s e l u m b p r o d u k s i g u l a d i I n d o n e s i a d i b a s i l k a n o l e b P N P / P T P, s e d a 4 g s i s a n y a o l e b p e r k e b u n a n r a k y a t . A k b i r - a k b i r i n i b a r g a g u l a d i b e b e r a p a p a s a r d i d a l a m n e g e r i m e n g a l a r i u k e n a i k a n a n t a r a R p . 6 0 0 / k g s a m p a i R p . 7 0 0 / k g y a n g k e m u d i a n m e n u m n l a ^ s a m p a i R p . 5 5 0 / k g . K e n a i k a n b a r g a g u l a t e r s e b u t d i s e b a b k a n k a r e n a a d a n y a p e r k i r a a n p a d a p i b a k b e b e r a p a k a l a n g a n p e d a g a n g b a b w a p r o d u k s i g u l a t a b u n 1 9 8 1 a k a n m e n u m n . N a m p a k n y a k a l a n g a n - k a l a n g a n i t u t e l a b m u l j a i m e n i m b u n g u l a s e b i n g g a t e r j a d i k e n a i k a n b a r g a . U n t u k m e n g a t a s i b a l i n i B U L O G a k a n m e n a m b a b i m p o r g u l a s e b a n y i k 1 6 0 r i b u t o n d i a t a s r e n c a n a s e m u l a ( y a i t u 4 5 0 r i b u t o n ) , s e b i n g g a i m p o r g u l a I n d o n e s i a u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 0 / 1 9 8 1 m e n j a d i 6 0 0 r i b u t o n . S a t u s a m a l a i n b a l i t u j a u b m e l e b i b i p e r k i r a a n D e p a r t e m e n P e r t a n i a n t e n t a n g i m p o r g u l a , y a i u b a n y a s e b a n y a k 3 0 s a m p a i 3 6 r i b u t o n u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 0 . M e n u m t B U L O G p r o d u k s i g u l a s e l u m b n y a u n t u k t a b u n 1 9 8 0 b e r j u m l a b I 3 j u t a t o n , s e d a i g -k a n m e n u m t D e p a r t e m e n P e r t a n i a n sebesar 1 , 7 5 j u t a t o n . U n t u k p e r i o d e j a n g k a p a n j a n g a k a n d i b u k a s e j u m l a b p a b r i k g u l a b a m d i l u a r J a w a , s e d a n g k a n b e b e r a p a p a b r i k g u l a d i J a w a a k a n d i r e b a b i U t a s i d e n g a n c e m i k i a n d i b a r a p k a n b a b w a p r o d u k s i y a n g m a k s i m u m a k a n bisa d i c a p a i .
< X z 0 3 CO 00 . T a b e l 3 P r o d u k s i T a n a m a n P e r k e b u n a n d i I n d o n e s i a 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 ( 1 0 0 0 t o n ) T a h u n K a r e t K o p i T e h C o k l a t M i n y a k S a w i t B i j i S a w i t G u l a T e b u T a h u n P r o d u k s i % * ' P r o d u k s i % •* P r o d u k s i % •» P r o d u k s i , %*• P r o d u k s i % P r o d u k s i P r o d u k s i 1 9 7 0 2 3 8 , 2 1 6 , 2 4 2 , 9 wT 0 1 , 2 2 1 6 , 5 4 8 , 5 7 1 3 3 1 9 7 1 2 3 8 , 7 0 , 2 1 9 , 4 1 9 , 8 4 7 , 5 1 0 , 7 1 , 4 1 6 , 7 2 4 8 , 4 1 4 , 1 5 6 , 1 1 5 , 7 8 3 4 , 0 1 6 , 9 1 9 7 2 2 3 6 , 3 • 1 , 0 2 2 , 4 2 1 5 , 5 4 8 , 3 1 , 7 1 , 5 7 , 1 2 6 9 , 4 8 , 5 5 9 , 2 5 5 8 8 9 3 6 6 1 9 7 3 2 4 6 , 5 4 , 3 1 0 , 1 - 5 4 , 9 5 3 , 1 1 0 1 , 3 • 1 3 , 3 2 9 0 , 0 7 , 6 6 4 , 1 8 , 2 8 1 9 , 8 - 7 , 8 1 9 7 4 2 4 8 , 7 0 , 9 1 6 , 2 6 0 , 4 5 0 , 1 5 , 6 2 , 6 1 0 0 3 5 1 , 1 2 1 , 1 7 4 , 2 1 5 , 8 1 0 2 4 , 8 2 5 , 0 1 9 7 5 2 4 4 , 1 - 1 , 8 1 5 , 2 - 6 , 2 5 5 , 3 1 0 , 4 3 , 2 2 3 , 1 4 1 1 , 4 1 7 , 2 8 3 , 2 1 2 , 5 1 0 2 9 , 9 0 , 5 1 9 7 6 2 4 6 , 8 1 , 1 1 5 , 2 0 5 9 , 7 8 , 0 3 , 0 - 6 , 3 4 3 3 , 9 5 , 5 8 2 , 1 - 1 , 7 1 0 5 5 , 7 2 2 , 5 1 9 7 7 2 5 2 , 2 2 , 2 1 7 , 1 1 1 2 , 5 6 2 , 8 5 , 2 3 , 9 3 0 4 9 7 , 4 1 4 , 6 9 2 , 3 1 2 , 4 1 1 0 4 , 8 4 , 7 1 9 7 8 2 6 9 , 6 6 , 8 1 6 , 6 1 - 2 , 9 7 1 , 7 1 4 , 2 4 , 3 1 0 , 3 5 2 5 , 0 5 , 5 9 9 , 4 7 , 7 1 1 2 5 , 8 1,9 1 9 7 9 2 7 3 , 6 1 , 6 1 6 , 4 - 1 , 2 7 1 , 8 0 , 1 7 , 4 7 2 , 1 5 9 9 , 9 1 4 , 3 1 1 3 , 4 1 4 , 1 1 2 7 5 , 4 1 3 , 3 1 9 8 0 2 8 1 , 0 2 , 7 2 1 , 1 2 8 , 7 7 8 , 2 8 , 9 8 , 3 1 2 , 2 6 9 1 , 0 1 5 , 2 1 2 1 , 1 6 , 8 1 1 8 8 , 3 - 6 , 8 1 9 8 1 * ) 1 1 0 , 6 0 , 1 3 3 , 8 2 , 7 2 0 5 , 0 3 6 , 5 1 3 8 , 2 S u m b e r : D i o l a h d a r i d a l a B P S , I n d i k a t o r E k o n o m i , J u l l 1 9 8 1 . • ) D a t a s e m e n t a r a J a n u a r i - M e l 1 9 8 1 ) P r o s e n t a s e k e n a i k a n p r o d o k s i .
t:i.:f.
11.4. Perkembangan Komoditi Perindustrian Terpenting
P a d a Tabel 4 t e r l i h a t p e r k e m b a n g a n b e b e r a p a k o m o d i t i p e r i n d u s t r i a n , d i a n -t a r a n y a s e m e n , r o k o k , k e r -t a s d a n p u p u k s e p e r -t i y a n g d i u r a i k a n d i b a w a b i n i . (1) Semen • f ' - ' f ^ : . " ' \ S e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 — 1 9 8 0 p r o d u k s i s e m e n m e n g a l a m i k e n a i k a n d e n g a n r a t a • r a t a 2 7 , 5 % p e r t a b u n . E k s p o r s e m e n I n d o n e s i a d i m u l a i d i t a b u n 1 9 7 8 d a n se-l a m a 3 t a b u n t e r a k b i r e k s p o r t e r s e b u t m e n u n j u k k a n p e r k e m b a n g a n sebaga b e r i k u t : t a b u n 1 9 7 8 sebesar 4 2 , 7 r i b u t o n a t a u 1 0 % d a r i p r o d u k s i ; t a b u i 1 9 7 9 sebesar 4 5 8 ^ r i b u t o n a t a u 1 0 , 4 % d a r i p r o d u k s i ; t a b u n 1 9 8 0 sebesa 4 9 8 r i b u t o n a t a u 9 , 5 % d a r i p r o d u k s i . E k s p o r s e m e n I n d o n e s i a d i t u j u k a n h M u a n g t b a i , I n d i a , S r i l a n g k a d a n s i s a n y a k e S i n g a p u r a , H o n g k o n g d a n S a u d A r a b i a . S e b e n a r n y a , p e n i n g k a t a n e k s p o r t i d a k s e b e r a p a . W a l a u d e m i k i a n , e k s p o r i t u t e t a p d i l a k s a n a k a n d e n g a n p e r t i m b a n g a n , a n t a r a l a i n u n t u k m e m p e r -t a b a n k a n e k s i s -t e n s i s e m e n I n d o n e s i a k e p a s a r a n l u a r n e g e r i s e b i n g g a b i l a s u a -t i i saat k e l a k I n d o n e s i a m a m p u u n t u k m e n g e k s p o r l e b i b b a n y a k , m a k a tidal: a k a n s u b t u n t u k m e n g e m b a n g k a n p e m a s a r a n . S e b a g i a n besar p r o d u k s i s e m e n k i t a d i g u n a k a n u n t u k k o n s u m s i d a l a m n e g e r i , o l e b k a r e n a k e b u t u b a n d a l a m n e g e r i s e m a k i n m e n i n g k a t , d a l a m r a n g k a p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g s e d a n g b e r j a l a n . (2) Rokok ;:;> :,, . . u A x . I | -Y a n g d i m a k s u d d e n g a n i n d u s t r i r o k o k a d a l a b r o k o k k r e t e k d a n r o k o k p u t i b . T a b e l 4 b a n y a m e m u a t d a t a m e n g e n a i r o k o k p u t i b . S e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - • 1 9 8 0 p r o d u k s i r o k o k p u t i b n a i k d e n g a n r a t a ^ a t a 9 0 % . P r o d u k s i r o k o k se-c a r a m e n y e l u r u b ( k r e t e k d a n r o k o k p u t i b ) u n t u k t a b u n a n g g a r a n 1 9 8 0 / 1 9 8 d i p e r k i r a k a n m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 1 3 % a t a u 7 6 0 m i l y a r b a t a n g . K e n a i k a n i n i m e m p a k a n k e n a i k a n t e r b e s a r d a l a m w a k t u 1 0 t a b u n y a n g l a l u . K e n a i k a i p r o d u k s i y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n a k a n m e n g b a s i l k a n c u k a i t e m b a k a u s e b e s a ' R p . 3 9 7 , 9 m i l y a r a t a u k e n a i k a n 3 4 , 3 % d a r i t a b u n s e b e l u m n y a . K e n a i k a n p r o -d u k s i i n i s u -d a b m e l a m p a u i r e n c a n a P e l i t a 111. K e n a i k a n -d a l a m p e n e r i m a a n c u k a i t e m b a k a u a d a s a n g k u t - p a u t n y a d e n g a n tindakan p e m e r i n t a b y a n g s e j a l : t a b u n a n g g a r a n 1 9 7 9 / 1 9 8 0 s u d a b m e n g a d a k a n p e m b a b a n s e c a r a s i s t i m a t i i d a l a m s k a l a t a r i f c u k a i t e m b a k a u y a n g d i s e s u a i k a n d e n g a n k e a d a a n p e m s a b a -a n d -a n p r o d u k s i n y -a . S e l a i n p e m b a b a n d a l a m s o a l b e a c u k a i , p e m e r i n t a b s e k a r a n g j u g a m e n g -a m b i l k e b i j -a k s -a n -a -a n d -a l -a m b i d -a n g i m p o r t e m b -a k -a u , y -a i t u d e n g -a n m e n -a i k k -a i p a j a k i m p o r u n t u k m e n g a t a s i k e m a c e t a n p a s a r a n t e m b a k a u d i d a l a m n e g e r i ,
k a r e n a m e n u m p u k n y a t e m b a k a u . T e m b a k a u y a n g b e r k u a l i t a s t i n g g i b a n y a k t e r s e r a p o l e b i n d u s t r i r o k o k d a l a m n e g e r i , s e d a n g k a n t e m b a k a u y a n g b e r k u a l i t a s s e d a n g d a n r e n d a b l e b i b s u l i t u n t u k d i p a s a r k a n . K e b i j a k s a n a a n p e m e r i n -t a b d i b i d a n g i m p o r -t e m b a k a u n a m p a k n y a m a s i b b e l u m m e m u a s k a n b a g i p a r a p e n g u s a b a r o k o k t i n g k a t m e n e n g a b . P a r a p e n g u s a b a r o k o k t e r s e b u t m e n g a -l a m i k e s u -l i t a n k a r e n a n a i k n y a b a r g a c e n g k e b y a n g c u k u p t i n g g i . (3) Kertas S e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 8 0 , p r o d u k s i y a n g b e r a s a l d a r i 6 b u a b p a b r i k k e r t a s d i I n d o n e s i a m e n g a l a m i k e n a i k a n r a t a j : a t a sebesar 2 5 % . J u m l a b p a b r i k k e r t a s d i I n d o n e s i a y a n g d i t a b u n 1 9 7 0 b a n y a 5 b u a b t e l a b m e n i n g k a t d i t a b u n 1 9 7 9 m e n j a d i 2 8 b u a b . P r o d u k s i k e r t a s s e l u m b n y a d i t a b u n 1 9 7 0 b a n y a l a b sebesar 1 8 , 5 r i b u t o n , s e d a n g k a n k o n s u m s i d a l a m t a b u n t e r s e b u t sebesar 1 5 5 r i b u t o n j a d i p r o d u k s i d a l a m n e g e r i b a n y a 1 2 % d a r i t o t a l k o n s u m s i . P a d a t a b u n 1 9 7 9 p r o d u k s i m e n c a p a i 2 1 4 r i b u t o n a t a u 5 0 % d a r i t o t a l k o n s u m s i t a b u n y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n , y a i t u sebesar 4 3 0 r i b u t o n . D a r i p r o d u k -si t a b u n 1 9 7 9 i t u , s e j u m l a b 1 2 0 r i b u t o n a d a l a b k e r t a s t u U s / k e r t a s c e t a k , se-d a n g k a n 9 4 r i b u t o n a se-d a l a b k e r t a s u n t u k k e p e r l u a n i n se-d u s t r i se-d a n m m a b t a n g g a . D a r i 2 8 p a b r i k k e r t a s i t u , 1 4 b u a b d i a n t a r a n y a j u g a m e m p r o d u k s i p u l p u n t u k k e p e r l u a n b a b a n b a k u m e r e k a s e n d i r i , s e d a n g k a n y a n g l a i n m e m b e l i p u l p d a r i s u m b e r h i a r . S e j u m l a b 1 4 b u a b p a b r i k k e r t a s y a n g d i m a k s u d i t u b a n y a m a m p u m e m -p r o d u k s i 7 5 r i b u t o n -p u l -p a t a u k i r a J d r a 1 4 % d a r i k a -p a s i t a s -p r o d u k s i m e r e k a . I n d o n e s i a m a s i b m e n g j m p o r p u l p y a n g d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 7 9 b e r j u m l a b 1 2 0 r i b u t o n , d i t a b u n 1 9 7 8 sebesar 1 1 0 r i b u t o n d a n d i t a b u n 1 9 7 7 sebesar 9 0 r i b u t o n . S e l a i n i t u I n d o n e s i a j u g a m e n g i m p o r k e r t a s u n t u k k e p e r l u a n k o r a n d a n k e r t a s u n t u k k e p e r l u a n k a n t o n g s e m e n . U n t u k m e n i n g k a t k a n p r o d u k s i d a l a m n e g e r i g u n a m e m e n u b i k e b u t u b a n a k a n k e r t a s , p e m e r i n t a b m e m b a n g u n 3 b u a b p r o y e k i n d u s t r i k e r t a s y a i t u : — P r o y e k k e r t a s s e m e n d i C i l a c a p . — P r o y e k i n t e g r a t e d - i n d u s t r y d i S e s a y a p , K a l i m a n t a n T i m u r y a n g a k a n m e n g b a s i l k a n k a y u g e l o n d o n g a n ( l o g s ) , p l y w o o d s e r t a s b o r t fibre p u l p . — P r o y e k l o n g fibre p u l p d i L b o k S e u m a w e , A c e b . S e d a n g k a n u n t u k m e m e n u b i k e b u t u b a n k e r t a s k o r a n y a n g s e l a m a i n i m e n c a k u p j u m l a b s e k i t a r 7 0 r i b u s a m p a i 9 0 r i b u t o n p e r t a b u n d a n y a n g m a -s i b m e m p a k a n b a r a n g i m p o r , m a k a P e m e r i n t a b a k a n m e m p e r l u a -s k a p a -s i t a -s P N . L e c e s u n t u k m e m p r o d u k s i k e r t a s k o r a n d a n p u l p y a n g p e m b a n g u n a i m y a a k a n d i m u l a i t a b u n 1 9 8 3 .
(4) Pupuk P r o d u k s i p u p u k d i I n d o n e s i a s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 0 1 9 8 0 u m u m n y a m e n u n -j u k k a n k e n a i k a n , y a i t u : U r e a m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 5 6 % p e r t a h u n , A m o n i i m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 2 3 5 % p e r t a h u n d a n Z A + T S P m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n 7 2 % p e t a h u n . K o n s u m s i U r e a d i t a h u n 1 9 8 0 sebesar 1 0 8 j u t a t o n d i a n t a r a n y a 9 3 % a t a u 1,8 j u t a t o n d i k o n s u m s i o l e b s e k t o r t a n a m a n p a n g a n ( t e r u t a m a b e r a s ) , s e d a n g k a n 5 , 4 % a t a u 1 0 6 r i b u t o n o l e b s e k t o r b u k a n t a n a m a n p a n g a n d a n y a n g 1 , 6 % a t a u 3 1 , 7 r i b u t o n o l e b s e k t o r i n d u s t r i . U r e a d i b a s i l k a n o l e b P T . P U S R I d a n P T . P U P U K K U J A N G y a n g m e m -p u n y a i t o t a l k a -p a s i t a s 2 0 j u t a t o n -p e r t a b u n . U n t u k m e n c u k u -p i k e b u t u b a n p u p u k d i d a l a m n e g e r i , p e m e r i n t a b m a s i b m e n j a l a n k a n i m p o r y a n g d a l a m t a b u n 1 9 8 0 m e n g e n a i U r e a b e r j u m l a b 1 3 9 r i b u t o n . S e l a i n p u p u k U r e a , I n d o -n e s i a j u g a m e m e r l u k a -n j e -n i s p u p u k l a i -n s e p e r t i T S P (Tripple Super Phospate . D A P ( D i a m o n i u m Phosphate) d a n N P K (Compound F e r t i l i z e r ) . T o t a l k o n s u m s i k e t i g a j e n i s i n i b e r j u m l a b 5 5 6 , 7 r i b u t o n d i t a b u n 1 9 8 0 s e d a n g k a n p r o d u k s i d a l a m n e g e r i b a n y a m e n c a p a i 4 6 4 r i b u t o n a t a u 8 3 0 % d a r i k e b u t u b a n , s e d a n g k e k u r a n g a i m y a 1 6 % a t a u 9 2 , 7 r i b u t o n d i i m p o r . K e t ga j e n i s p u p u k y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n d i b a s i l k a n o l e b P T . P E T R O K I M I A G R I S I K . D e n g a n m e l i b a t k e p a d a k o n s u m s i p u p u k y a n g t i n g g i , s e d a n g k a n p r o d u k -si d a l a m n e g e r i b e l u m m e n c u k u p i , m a k a d i s a m p i n g I n d o n e s i a m e n g e k s p o r p u p u k k e l u a r n e g e r i , I n d o n e s i a j u g a m a s i b m e n g i m p o r . U n t u k m e n g a t a s i k e k u r a n g a n p u p u k , p e m e r i n t a b a k a n m e m b a n g u n l a g i p a b r i k - p a b r i k b a r u s e p e r t i : - P U P U K K A L T I M I d i K a l i m a n t a n T i m u r , y a n g a k a n m e m p r o d u k s i U r e i d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s p r o d u k s i 5 7 0 r i b u t o n p e r t a b u n . P a b r i k i n i d i p e r k i r a k a n selesai a w a l t a b u n 1 9 8 2 . S e l a i n U r e a , p a b r i k t e r s e b u t a k a n m e n ^ a -s i l k a n A m o n i a -sebe-sar 1 6 5 r i b u t o n p e r t a b u n . - P U P U K K A L T I M I I , m e r u p a k a n p e r l u a s a n d a r i P U P U K K A L T I M 1 d a n d i r e n c a n a k a n selesai d i t a b u n 1 9 8 4 , d e n g a n k a p a s i t a s 5 7 0 r i b u t o n p e : t a b u n . - A C E H A S E A N U R E A P L A N T , y a n g m e m p u n y a i k a p a s i t a s 5 7 0 r i b u t o i i U r e a p e r t a b u n . P r o y e k i n i a k a n selesai d i b a n g u n a w a l t a b u n 1 9 8 4 .
