Technical Analysis
RISET TEKNIKAL SAHAM HARIAN
Samuel Equity Research Tuesday, 20 December 2016
Technical Market Review
Setelah sempat menguat sedikit, IHSG mulai memastikan penurunan hingga ditutup di 5,191.91 atau turun -0.8%. Nilai transaksi kembali turun dan hanya tercatat sebesar Rp4 triliun. Nilai tersebut merupakan yang terkecil sejak pertengahan Nov’16.
Sektor yang mengalami penurunan banyak antara lain Mineral, Coal, FMCG, Cigarettes, Poultry, Media, Retail, Cement, Construction dan Industrial Area. Beberapa nama dari sektor tersebut bergerak berlawanan dengan naik cukup tinggi seperti ADRO (+2%) dan LPPF (+3%).
Healthcare mencatat kenaikan disertai dengan Bank terutama Mid- Small Cap Bank yang kembali naik tinggi (BJBR +3% dan BJTM 4.2%).
Breakdown Support 5,212, Hampir Memastikan Downtrend
Dengan Breakdown Support di 5,212, sangat mungkin IHSG berada di awal Downtrend menuju 5,050 sampai akhir tahun. Karena masih di awal Downtrend, peluang IHSG naik dan membuat False Breakdown pun masih besar namun Technical Analyst perkirakan IHSG akan Flat hari ini mendekati 5,190 untuk memastikan Breakdown tersebut. Sektor pilihan hari ini antara lain : Coal (ADRO, UNTR), Oil&Gas (MEDC, ELSA), FMCG (ICBP, INDF), Cigarettes (GGRM), Auto (ASII), Construction (ADHI, WSKT), Telecom (TLKM, EXCL) dan Bank (BBNI, BBTN dan BMRI).
Tiga pilihan terbaik hari ini : ADRO, BBNI dan ELSA Selected Charts : BWPT dan TOTL
Day Trading Recommendation LQ45 : ADRO, BBNI dan TLKM Non-LQ45 : ELSA
Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change
Drop : No Change
Commodity Related : Coal (ADRO, DOID, UNTR), Mineral (ANTM, INCO, TINS), CPO (LSIP), Plantation (BISI)
Consumer Related : FMCG (ROTI), Pharmacy (INAF, KAEF), Poultry
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
Day Trading Recommendation
Saham Last Price Signals 1D %Ch Supp.1 Supp.2 Resist.1 Resist.2 Daily Target ADRO 1,695 Buy Now 2.11 1,680 1,660 1,710 1,730 1,730 ELSA 448 Buy Now 0.90 440 440 460 460 460 BBNI 5,425 Buy Now 1.40 5,370 5,310 5,490 5,560 5,560 TLKM 3,800 Alert Buy (0.52) 3,770 3,740 3,860 3,920 3,920
Seluruh saham berpotensi Outperform namun TLKM berada dalam Downtrend sehingga kurang menjadi pilihan terbaik
Swing Trading Recommendation
Stock 1st Add Date
1st Add Open Price
Latest Close
% Change Since Add
Estimated Target
% Upside Potential Since Last
Close
Entry Timing
ADRO 31-Aug-16 1,145 1,695 48.0% 2,000 18.0% Now UNTR 20-Oct-16 19,900 21,100 6.0% 27,000 28.0% Now DOID 22-Nov-16 474 515 8.6% 620 20.4% Wait LSIP 22-Nov-16 1,620 1,820 12.3% 2,050 12.6% Wait ANTM 15-Sep-16 620 870 40.3% 1,100 26.4% Wait INCO 14-Sep-16 2,730 3,060 12.1% 4,200 37.3% Wait TINS 22-Sep-16 800 1,155 44.4% 1,500 29.9% Wait BISI 2-Sep-16 1,800 1,855 3.1% 2,100 13.2% Wait ROTI 8-Sep-16 1,615 1,510 -6.5% 1,800 19.2% Wait INAF 9-Sep-16 1,870 3,800 103.2% 4,400 15.8% Wait KAEF 22-Nov-16 2,350 2,820 20.0% 3,400 20.6% Wait JPFA 29-Sep-16 1,595 1,630 2.2% 2,125 30.4% Wait MAPI 29-Sep-16 4,350 5,050 16.1% 5,800 14.9% Wait WIKA 15-Nov-16 2,530 2,440 -3.6% 2,900 18.9% Wait TOTL 27-Oct-16 855 780 -8.8% 920 17.9% Wait ELSA 6-Dec-16 472 448 -5.1% 580 29.5% Now TLKM 16-Sep-16 4,140 3,800 -8.2% 4,600 21.1% Now ISAT 22-Nov-16 6,100 6,050 -0.8% 6,800 12.4% Wait BBNI 8-Nov-16 5,625 5,425 -3.6% 5,900 8.8% Now
INAF dan INCO masuk ke dalam saham yang perlu diwaspadai
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
Selected Charts
BWPT (Rp276) : Bersiap Menguji Resistance di Rp314
BWPT akan segera naik menguji Rp314 untuk kemudian menuju Rp400 yang merupakan target dari pergerakan sejak awal 2016. Ada kemungkinan BWPT bergerak konsolidasi sebelum Breakout Rp314.
Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp235
TOTL (Rp780) : Mengawali Kenaikan Menuju Rp850
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
Dates Saham Price Before Open Price Close Price High Price Low Price Return in 1D Return in 2D Return in 3D 19-Dec-16 BBNI 5,350 5,425 5,425 5,500 5,375 1.4%
19-Dec-16 JPFA 1,685 1,690 1,630 1,700 1,630 -3.3%
19-Dec-16 SCMA 2,600 2,590 2,510 2,590 2,510 -3.5%
19-Dec-16 TINS 1,180 1,180 1,155 1,250 1,150 -2.1%
16-Dec-16 ANTM 895 905 885 905 880 -1.1%
16-Dec-16 ELSA 448 450 444 452 444 -0.9%
16-Dec-16 INCO 3,250 3,240 3,240 3,270 3,210 -0.3%
16-Dec-16 UNTR 22,550 22,475 21,975 22,675 21,975 -2.6%
15-Dec-16 BBNI 5,475 5,400 5,400 5,475 5,350 -1.4% 0.5%
15-Dec-16 GGRM 67,025 66,700 66,300 67,125 66,000 -1.1% -4.2%
15-Dec-16 ROTI 1,515 1,500 1,515 1,515 1,500 0.0% 0.7%
15-Dec-16 SMBR 2,660 2,660 2,620 2,660 2,610 -1.5% -2.3%
14-Dec-16 ADRO 1,700 1,710 1,690 1,710 1,685 -0.6% -2.9% -0.9%
14-Dec-16 BISI 1,850 1,860 1,850 1,920 1,830 0.0% 4.3% -0.3%
14-Dec-16 LSIP 1,720 1,740 1,720 1,755 1,720 0.0% 4.0% 4.6%
14-Dec-16 MAPI 5,025 5,025 5,000 5,125 4,990 -0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
14-Dec-16 TINS 1,240 1,240 1,175 1,255 1,175 -5.2% -4.8% -6.9%
13-Dec-16 ADRO 1,680 1,700 1,700 1,715 1,675 1.2% -1.8% -2.4%
13-Dec-16 ELSA 460 480 464 486 462 0.9% -6.7% -7.5%
13-Dec-16 INCO 3,310 3,310 3,250 3,320 3,250 -1.8% -1.8% -2.1%
13-Dec-16 ISAT 6,275 6,275 6,275 6,350 6,275 0.0% -1.2% -2.0%
13-Dec-16 UNTR 22,800 22,900 22,475 23,075 22,000 -1.4% -1.5% -4.0%
9-Dec-16 BBNI 5,425 5,500 5,475 5,525 5,400 0.9% -0.5% -1.8%
9-Dec-16 ELSA 450 460 460 462 450 2.2% -2.6% -2.6%
9-Dec-16 PWON 645 645 645 645 635 0.0% -3.9% -8.5%
9-Dec-16 RALS 1,195 1,200 1,195 1,210 1,190 0.0% -5.0% -8.8%
9-Dec-16 ROTI 1,505 1,505 1,510 1,530 1,505 0.3% 0.7% 0.7%
9-Dec-16 TLKM 3,940 3,930 3,960 3,980 3,910 0.5% -0.3% -0.5%
8-Dec-16 BMRI 10,700 10,775 10,950 10,950 10,725 2.3% 0.5% 0.9%
8-Dec-16 INAF 4,010 4,020 4,030 4,650 4,010 0.5% -1.7% -3.0%
8-Dec-16 MAPI 5,275 5,300 5,275 5,500 5,175 0.0% -5.2% -5.7%
8-Dec-16 TINS 1,300 1,300 1,245 1,305 1,230 -4.2% -4.6% -9.6%
8-Dec-16 WIKA 2,380 2,400 2,570 2,580 2,390 8.0% 3.3% 1.3%
7-Dec-16 BBNI 5,375 5,350 5,350 5,425 5,325 -0.5% 2.3% 2.3%
7-Dec-16 MAPI 5,175 5,175 5,275 5,275 5,000 1.9% -0.5% -2.9%
7-Dec-16 RALS 1,170 1,155 1,150 1,170 1,145 -1.7% 3.5% 0.0%
7-Dec-16 TINS 1,280 1,280 1,300 1,325 1,255 1.6% -3.1% -3.1%
6-Dec-16 ELSA 470 472 460 474 460 -2.1% -4.7% -2.5%
6-Dec-16 INCO 3,430 3,430 3,370 3,430 3,360 -1.8% -5.5% -3.5%
6-Dec-16 ISAT 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,400 6,275 0.0% -0.4% -0.4%
6-Dec-16 LSIP 1,865 1,885 1,890 1,905 1,860 1.3% -6.6% -7.2%
5-Dec-16 ANTM 965 965 965 975 955 0.0% -0.5% -1.6%
5-Dec-16 DOID 515 520 545 550 515 5.8% 0.0% 1.0%
5-Dec-16 INAF 4,310 4,310 4,170 4,340 4,130 -3.3% -7.0% -6.5%
5-Dec-16 LSIP 1,800 1,800 1,865 1,865 1,780 3.6% 1.9% -2.2%
2-Dec-16 ACES 890 895 880 905 880 -1.1% -2.8% -3.9%
2-Dec-16 DOID 510 510 515 525 505 1.0% 2.9% 2.0%
2-Dec-16 INCO 3,470 3,450 3,380 3,500 3,370 -2.6% -2.3% -2.3%
2-Dec-16 TLKM 3,860 3,820 3,910 3,960 3,810 1.3% 2.4% 0.8%
DAY TRADING RECOMMENDATION RECORD
Riset Teknikal Saham Harian
Relationship Sector Saham Last Price Supp.1 Supp.2 Resist.1 Resist.2 1D %Ch Trend Volume RS Potential RS Trend Status Commodities Related Coal ADRO 1,695 1,680 1,660 1,710 1,730 2.11 Uptrend --- O/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Commodities Related Coal PTBA 12,300 12,100 11,900 12,600 12,900 (1.60) Uptrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Commodities Related Coal UNTR 21,100 20,810 20,520 21,630 22,170 (3.98) Downtrend Above Average U/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Commodities Related Coal DOID 515 510 500 530 550 (3.74)New Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Commodities Related Coal ITMG 17,150 16,810 16,470 17,480 17,820 (0.44) Uptrend --- O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Commodities Related CPO AALI 17,000 16,870 16,730 17,270 17,530 (1.16) Uptrend Above Previous U/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Commodities Related CPO LSIP 1,820 1,800 1,780 1,840 1,860 0.55 Uptrend Above Previous O/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Commodities Related CPO SSMS 1,350 1,320 1,300 1,390 1,430 (1.46)New Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Commodities Related CPO BWPT 276 250 230 290 310 12.20 Uptrend Abv Prev&Avg O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Commodities Related CPO SGRO 1,900 1,890 1,890 1,900 1,910 (0.26) Downtrend --- O/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Commodities Related CPO SIMP 498 500 490 500 510 (0.40) Downtrend Above Previous O/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Commodities Related Mineral ANTM 870 860 850 890 920 (1.69) Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Commodities Related Mineral INCO 3,060 2,990 2,920 3,190 3,320 (5.56) Downtrend Above Previous U/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Commodities Related Mineral PSAB 250 250 240 250 260 0.81 Downtrend Above Previous O/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Commodities Related Mineral TINS 1,155 1,120 1,090 1,220 1,290 (2.12) Downtrend Abv Prev&Avg U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Commodities Related Oil&Gas PGAS 2,690 2,650 2,620 2,740 2,800 (1.47)New Downtrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Commodities Related Oil&Gas MEDC 1,300 1,270 1,230 1,360 1,410 (2.62)New DowntrendAbove Previous U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Commodities Related Plantation BISI 1,855 1,820 1,790 1,910 1,970 (4.38) Uptrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Commodities Related Plantation TBLA 940 930 920 950 970 (0.53)New Downtrend --- O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Auto ASII 7,625 7,570 7,510 7,690 7,760 0.66 Downtrend --- O/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related Auto ASSA 196 190 190 200 200 (0.51) Downtrend Above Previous O/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Auto GJTL 1,060 1,050 1,030 1,080 1,100 (2.30)New Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Cigarettes GGRM 63,900 63,400 62,900 64,800 65,700 (2.52)New Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related Cigarettes HMSP 3,920 3,900 3,880 3,960 4,000 (2.00) Uptrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related FCMG ICBP 8,325 8,230 8,130 8,530 8,730 (3.48) Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related FCMG INDF 7,700 7,630 7,550 7,850 8,000 (0.65)New Downtrend --- O/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related FCMG KLBF 1,460 1,440 1,410 1,510 1,560 (4.58)New Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related FCMG UNVR 39,850 39,730 39,620 39,980 40,120 (0.31) Downtrend Above Average O/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related FCMG AISA 1,950 1,940 1,920 1,980 2,010 (2.50)New Downtrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related FCMG MYOR 1,615 1,610 1,600 1,620 1,630 - Uptrend Abv Prev&Avg O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related FCMG ROTI 1,510 1,480 1,450 1,530 1,550 (0.66) New Uptrend --- O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related FMCG SIDO 540 540 530 550 550 (1.82) Downtrend Above Previous U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Healthcare SILO 10,075 9,930 9,790 10,180 10,290 0.50 Downtrend Abv Prev&Avg O/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related Healthcare MIKA 2,580 2,520 2,470 2,610 2,650 2.79 New Uptrend Above Previous O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Media BMTR 595 590 580 610 620 (0.83) Downtrend --- O/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related Media MNCN 1,780 1,750 1,710 1,830 1,870 (4.30) Uptrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related Media SCMA 2,510 2,480 2,460 2,560 2,620 (3.46) Uptrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related Pharmacy INAF 3,800 3,740 3,680 3,920 4,040 (1.81) Downtrend Above Previous U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Pharmacy KAEF 2,820 2,780 2,750 2,850 2,890 1.44 Uptrend Above Previous O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Poultry CPIN 3,140 3,090 3,030 3,230 3,310 (3.38)New Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related Poultry JPFA 1,630 1,610 1,580 1,680 1,720 (3.26)New Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Poultry MAIN 1,250 1,240 1,230 1,270 1,280 0.40 Downtrend --- O/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Retail LPPF 14,950 14,640 14,330 15,190 15,430 3.10 New Uptrend Above Previous O/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related Retail MPPA 1,545 1,530 1,510 1,580 1,610 (0.32) Downtrend --- O/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Consumer Related Retail ACES 840 820 810 860 890 (3.45)New Downtrend Abv Prev&Avg U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Retail ERAA 630 620 600 650 660 - Uptrend --- O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Retail MAPI 5,050 5,020 4,980 5,090 5,130 - Uptrend --- O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Retail RALS 1,145 1,130 1,110 1,170 1,190 (0.87) Downtrend --- O/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Retail TELE 805 780 760 840 870 1.26 Uptrend Abv Prev&Avg O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Consumer Related Textile SRIL 226 220 220 230 240 (1.74) Downtrend Abv Prev&Avg U/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Infrastructure Related Cement INTP 15,650 15,430 15,220 16,080 16,520 (4.43) Uptrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Infrastructure Related Cement SMGR 9,100 9,020 8,930 9,240 9,380 (0.82) Uptrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Infrastructure Related Cement SMBR 2,600 2,580 2,570 2,630 2,670 (0.76) Uptrend Above Previous U/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Cement SMCB 895 880 870 910 930 (2.19)New DowntrendAbove Previous U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Concrete WTON 855 850 850 860 870 (1.16) Uptrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Construction ADHI 2,070 2,040 2,020 2,120 2,180 (1.90) Uptrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Infrastructure Related Construction PTPP 3,840 3,820 3,800 3,880 3,920 (1.03) Downtrend --- O/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Infrastructure Related Construction WIKA 2,440 2,410 2,370 2,500 2,550 (2.40) Uptrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Infrastructure Related Construction WSKT 2,440 2,410 2,370 2,490 2,530 (1.61)New Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Infrastructure Related Construction TOTL 780 760 740 790 800 1.96 Uptrend Above Previous O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Industrial Area BEST 266 260 260 270 280 (2.92) Uptrend Above Previous U/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Industrial Area KIJA 268 260 250 270 280 0.75 Downtrend Abv Prev&Avg O/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Industrial Area LPCK 5,225 5,130 5,040 5,380 5,540 (3.24)New Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Industrial Area SSIA 476 470 460 490 500 (4.03) Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Logistic SOCI 358 350 350 360 370 (1.65) Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Logistic WINS 220 210 200 230 240 (1.79) Uptrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Oil&Gas AKRA 5,975 5,880 5,790 6,130 6,290 (2.05) Downtrend Above Average U/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Infrastructure Related Oil&Gas ELSA 448 440 440 460 460 0.90 Uptrend Above Previous O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Steel ISSP 208 200 200 210 210 (0.95) Uptrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Steel KRAS 815 810 800 830 850 (2.40)New Downtrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Telecom TLKM 3,800 3,770 3,740 3,860 3,920 (0.52) Downtrend --- O/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Infrastructure Related Telecom EXCL 2,330 2,280 2,220 2,380 2,420 0.87 Uptrend Above Previous O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Telecom ISAT 6,050 6,000 5,950 6,100 6,150 (1.63) Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Toll JSMR 4,430 4,400 4,380 4,480 4,540 (1.77) Uptrend --- U/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Infrastructure Related Toll CMNP 1,630 1,600 1,580 1,650 1,680 0.93 Uptrend Above Average O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Tower TBIG 5,250 5,130 5,020 5,310 5,370 2.44 Downtrend --- O/P Potential U/P Trend LQ45 Infrastructure Related Transportation BIRD 2,970 2,930 2,900 3,040 3,120 (2.94) Uptrend Above Average U/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Transportation GIAA 354 350 340 360 370 (1.67) Downtrend --- U/P Potential U/P Trend Non-LQ45 Infrastructure Related Transportation TAXI 206 170 140 220 240 34.64 Uptrend Abv Prev&Avg O/P Potential O/P Trend Non-LQ45 Interest Related Banking BBCA 14,725 14,540 14,360 14,870 15,010 (0.51) New Uptrend --- O/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Interest Related Banking BBNI 5,425 5,370 5,310 5,490 5,560 1.40 Uptrend Above Average O/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45 Interest Related Banking BBRI 11,250 11,210 11,170 11,330 11,420 (0.22) Uptrend --- O/P Potential O/P Trend LQ45
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