INDONESIA: CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION and IT s 2050 VISION

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INDONESIA:

CURRENT ENERGY SITUATION

and IT’s 2050 VISION

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CURRENT CONDITIONS

At present, energy conditions in Indonesia are as follows: • There are great potential energy sources

• Society's access to energy is still limited

• Oil fuel consumption is 63% of total energy consumption

• Gas and coal prices are higher on the export market than on the domestic market, Domestic consumers have low

purchasing power.

• The energy industry is not optimal

– Limited energy infrastructure (Appendixes G1 s/d G4, pages 33-36)

– Energy prices (such as for fuel, gas for fertilizer factories and new/ renewable energies) that are not commensurate with their economic value (Appendix H, page 40)

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EXPECTED CONDITIONS

• Rational Energy prices

• Society’s access to energy

• Better economic conditions will increase

society’s purchasing power

• Security of energy supply (Balanced

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Listrik 11% BBM 42% LPG 1% Gas Kota 19% Batubara 27% Listrik 0% BBM 100% LPG 0% Gas Kota 0% Batubara 0% Industri 41% Rumah Tangga dan Komersial 24% Transportasi 35%

FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION 2005

Listrik 12% BBM 67% LPG 2% Gas Kota 8% Batubara 11% Listrik 31% BBM 63% LPG 6% Gas Kota 0% Batubara 0% Household&Comercial Transport Industry 26 Juta KL 12 Juta KL By Fuel Type by Sector 100 TWh 54 Juta KL 500 BSCF 13 Juta Ton 1,1 Juta Ton

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Trend of Indonesia Primary Energy Mix

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1990 1991 1992 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Pe rs e n

PLTA Biofuel Batubara EBT Lainnya Gas Bumi Minyak Bumi Panas Bumi

Oil Geothermal Natural Gas Coal Hydropower Renewable

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CO

₂

Emission from Energy Utilization

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 M illio n T o n Other Sector Transport Household Industry PowerPlant

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2005 CO

₂

Emission by Sources

PowerPlant 26% Industry 37% Household 10% Other Sector 4% Transport 23%

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NATIONAL ENERGY POTENTIALS 2004

147 130 million barrels 19.3 billion tons 57 billion tons Coal 61 3.0 TSCF 182 TSCF 384.7 TSCF Gas 18 500 million barrels 9 billion barrels 86.9 billion barrels Oil CAD/PROD RATIO (without exploration) Years PRODUCTION (per annum) RESERVES (Proven + Possible) RESOURCES TYPES OF FOSSIL-BASED ENERGY 24.112 Tons* e.q. 3 GW for 11 years Uranium (Nuclear) 8.00 MW 4.80 kWh/m2_{/ day} Solar energy 302.40 MW 49.81 GW Biomass 4,200.00 MW 6,851.00 GWh 75.67 GW 845.00 million BOE Hydroelectric power 800.00 MW 2,593.50 GWh 27.00 GW 219.00 million BOE Geothermal power 84.00 MW 458.75 MW 458.75 MW Mini/Micro hydro INSTALLED CAPACITY USAGE EQUAL TO RESOURCES NON-FOSSIL ENERGY 0.50 MW 9.29 GW Wind power

* Only in the Kalan region – West Kalimantan

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Grissik _Palembang

Semarang

RESERVES AND NETWORKS OF GAS PIPELINES

Pacific Ocean AUSTRALIA Indian Ocean Bangkok Phnom Penh Ban Mabtapud Ho Chi Minh City CAMBODIA VIETNAM THAILAND LAOS Khanon Songkhla Erawan Bangkot Lawit Jerneh WEST MALAYSI A Penang Kerteh Kuala Lumpur Manila Philipines South China Sea Sin g ap ore G as Tru n klin e NatunaAlpha Kota Kinibalu BRUNEI Bandara Seri Begawan Bintul u EAST MALAYSIA Kuchin g Banda Aceh Lhokseumawe Medan Duri Padang S U M A T R A Jambi Bintan SINGAPORE Samarinda Balikpapan Bontang LNG Plant

& Export Terminal

Attaka Tunu Bekapai KALIMANTAN Banjarmasin Manado SULAWESI Ujung Pandang BURU SERAM Ternate _HALMAHERA Sorong IRIAN JAYA Jakarta J A V A _SurabayaBangkalan BALI SUMBAWA Pagerungan LOMBOK Cirebon FLORES SUMBA TIMOR I N D O N E S I A Duyong West Natuna Port Dickson Port Klang Mogpu Dumai Batam Guntong 51,627 3,756 0,720 11,516 5,855 5,529 34,021 3,894 18,520 GAS RESERVE 2P (BSCF) TOTAL RESERVES 2P : 142.462 BSCF 0,11 3,00Massela Ardjuna Fields MADURA 3,854 Existing Pipeline Planned Pipeline Jayapur a Merauke

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Grissik _Palembang Semarang Pacific Ocean AUSTRALIA Indian Ocean Bangkok Phnom Penh Ban Mabtapud Ho Chi Minh City CAMBODIA VIETNAM THAILAND LAOS Khanon Songkhla Erawan Bangkot Lawit Jerneh WEST MALAYSI A Penang Kerteh Kuala Lumpur Manila Philipines South China Sea NatunaAlpha Kota Kinibalu BRUNEI Bandara Seri Begawan Bintul u EAST MALAYSIA Kuchin g Banda Aceh Lhokseumawe Medan Duri S U M A T R A Jambi Bintan SINGAPORE Samarinda Balikpapan Bontan g Attaka Tunu Bekapai KALIMANTAN Banjarmasin Manado SULAWESI BURU SERAM Ternate Sorong IRIAN JAYA Jakarta J A V A Surabaya Bangkalan BALI SUMBAWA LOMBOK FLORES SUMBA TIMOR Duyong West Natuna Mogpu Dumai Batam Guntong MADURA

REFINERIES AND Fuel TRANSPORTATION MODE

Bandung Yogyakarta Transit Terminal Pipeline Distribution Tanker Oil Refinery P. Brandan: 5 MBOPD Balongan : 125 MBOPD Kasim : 10 MBOPD Musi 135.20 MBOPD Balikpapan : 260 MBOPD Ujung Pandang Pagerungan HALMAHERA

TOTAL REFINERY CAPACITY 1,057,000 BOPD Jayapur a Merauke Cepu : 3.80 MBOPD S.Pakning : 50 MBOPD Cilacap: 348 MBOPD Dumai : 120 MBOPD Padang Port Klang Port Dickson I N D O N E S I A

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TARGETS:

1.Per-capita energy consumption of a minimum of 10 BOE (RIKEN) and 95% electrification ratio 95% (RUKN) in the year 2025

2.To achieve the security of domestic energy supply, through: • Energy elasticity less than 1 in the year 2025

• An optimal (primary) energy mix in 2025 : – The role of oil decreases to 26.2%

– The role of natural gas increases to 30.6% – The role of coal increases to 32.7%

– The role of geothermal power increases to 3.8%

– The role of new and renewable sources of energy increases to 4.4%

• The fulfillment of fossil-based domestic energy supply through the gradual reduction of exports

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NATIONAL ENERGI MIX TARGET FOR THE YEAR 2025 (GR No. 5 / 2006) OIL 20 % Gas 30 % COAL 33 % NRE 17 % Bio-fuel 5 % Geothermal 5 %

Biomass, Nuclear, Hydropower, Solar, Wind 5 %

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Projected Trends of Indonesia Primary Energy Mix 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1990 199 1 1992 1993 1994 199 5 1996 1997 199 8 199 9 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200 7 200 8 2009 2010 201 1 2012 2013 2014 201 5 2016 2017 2018 201 9 202 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Per cen t Oil Geothermal Natural Gas Coal

Hydropower Bio Fuel

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Energy Snap-Shot Industrial Sector

- 50 100 150 200 250 2000

2050 A (CM)

2050 B (CM)

COL OIL GAS BMS S/W Heat H2 ELE

Energy consumption in industrial sector (Mtoe) CO2 emission in industrial sector with allocated emission from heat,

H2, electricity (MtC)

Skenario A B

Economic (VA) increase 4% p.a increase 4% p.a.

Energy Mix Oil Reduction (50%) Oil Reduction (60%) + New

Technology

Efficiency Increase Fuel 10%, Ele 25% Fuel 25%, Ele 50%

- 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2000

2050 A (CM)

2050 B (CM)

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Energy Snap-Shot Residential Sector

- 10 20 30 40 50 60

2000

2050 A (CM)

2050 B (CM)

Energy consumption in Residential sector (Mtoe) CO2 emission in Residential sector with allocated emission from heat, H2, electricity (MtC)

Skenario A B

Growth Rate Cooling 1.5%, Cook(S) 1%, Hot Wtr 0.5%, Cook(E) 1.5%,

Lighting (2%), Appliance (2.5%)

Energy Mix Oil Reduction; Changed of

Non Commersial F

A + Advanced Tech. Hot Water, Cooking, etc

Efficiency Increase 20% 25%

- 5 10 15 20

2000

2050 A (CM)

2050 B (CM)

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Energy Snap-Shot Transport Sector

- 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2000

2050 A (CM)

2050 B (CM)

Energy consumption in Transport sector (Mtoe) CO2 emission in transport sector with allocated emission from heat,

Skenario A B

Growth Rate Private car 1%, Commercial 5%, Bus 2.5%, Train 10%,

Ship 2.5%, Air 2.5%

Energy Mix Introducing Bio Fuel Introducing BioFuel +

Hydrogen

Efficiency Increase Reguler 300%, Hydrogen 400%, Electric 500%

- 20 40 60 80 100

2000

2050 A (CM)

2050 B (CM)

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Energy Snap-Shot Power Generation

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2000

2050 A (CM)

2050 B (CM)

COL OIL GAS NUC HYD HYD(P) GEO BMS S/W

Energy consumption in Transport sector (Mtoe) CO2 emission in transport sector with allocated emission from heat,

Skenario A B

Growth Rate Private car 1%, Commercial 5%, Bus 2.5%, Train 10%,

Ship 2.5%, Air 2.5%

Energy Mix Introducing Bio Fuel Introducing BioFuel +

Hydrogen

Efficiency Increase Reguler 300%, Hydrogen 400%, Electric 500%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2000

2050 A (CM)

2050 B (CM)

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Energy Demand Projection

- 100 200 300 400 500

2000

2050 A (CM)

2050 B (CM)

COL OIL GAS BMS NUC HYD S/W

Primary Energy (Mtoe) Final Energy (Mtoe)

- 100 200 300 400 500 600

2000

2050 A (CM)

2050 B (CM)

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Factor Analysis Total

402% -103% -139% -22% 138% 365% -86% -166% -34% 79% -200% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% D E/ D C/ E C' /C To ta l vs 2000' s 2050 A 2050 B

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Oil Subsidy Reduction for Residential

Oil Used

Residential Energy Service Requirement

Cooking -> devices

Kerosene Stove

Gas Stove

Biomass Stove Electric Stove

Lighting -> devices

Incandescent Bulb

Compact Fluorescent Lamp Kerosene Lamp

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