PERBANDINGAN MODEL ARIMA DAN FUNGSI TRANSFER PADA
PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN KABUPATEN WONOSOBO
SKRIPSI
Disusun Oleh :
SITI LIS INA ATUL HIDAYAH
24010211120006
JURUSAN STATISTIKA
i
PERBANDINGAN MODEL ARIMA DAN FUNGSI TRANSFER PADA
PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN KABUPATEN WONOSOBO
O eh :
SITI LIS INA ATUL HIDAYAH
24010211120006
Diajukan Sebagai Salah Satu Syarat Tugas Akhir pada
Jurusan Statistika Fakultas Sains dan Matematika Universitas Diponegoro
JURUSAN STATISTIKA
FAKULTAS SAINS DAN MATEMATIKA
UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO
SEMARANG
udul
: Perbadingan Model ARIMA dan Fungsi Transfer pada Peramalan
Curah Hujan Kabupaten Wonososbo
Nama
: Siti Lis Ina Atul Hidayah
NIM
: 24010211120006
Jurusan
: Statistika
Telah diujikan pada sidang Tugas Akhir tanggal 06 Juli 2015 dan dinyatakan lulus
pada tanggal 14 Juli 2015
Semarang, Juli 2015
Mengetahui,
Ketua Jurusan Statistika
Fakultas Sains dan Matematika
Dra. Hj. Dwi Ispriyanti, M.Si
NIP. 195709141986032001
Mengetahui,
Panitia Penguji Tugas Akhir
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ÌÍ ®Î ®Ï¾Èy
Ä¿¯¯ È´À¿Ð¿ ¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ × äTabel 10.
ÌÍ ®Î ®Ï¾Èy
Ä¿¯ ¯ È´À¿Ð¿Ñ°µ ®¯Æ ȸ Õȱ °°² ¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ × äTabel 11.
ÌÍ ®À ®½² ®¶®¾ °² µ ®Æ°´ °¸È ÁÈ´Ç·±È¯À¿Ð¿Ñ °µ ®¯Æ ȸ Õȱ °°²¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ Ê åTabel 12.
®¯ °®À Á°Á® µ Á®¾ÙÍ¿² ½Ú Û·ÜÀ¿Ð¿Ñ °µ ®¯Æȸ Õȱ °°²¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ ÊÉTabel 13.
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À¿Ð¿Ñ°µ®¯ Æ È¸Õȱ °°²¹¹ Ê ÝTabel 14.
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18
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Tabel 19.
îûðî ÷ ð÷îò÷îï ñ ùü öû öõ ý ðý ðñú ðôðþ ðòîûó öõý öú ððñÿTabel 20.
îûðî ÷ ð÷îò÷ îï î ü ù ûõ ùù ôù õîôñù üöû öõý ðý ðñ úðôðþ ðòîûó öõ ý öú ððñÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ
Tabel 21.
î û ðî ÷ ð÷îò÷ î ï î ðôðñö ø û÷î ûî öô ø üöû öõý ðý ðñú ðôðþ ðòîûó öõý öú ððñÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ
Tabel 22.
î î ñî íî ïðñòîó ðôðõ ö÷ öôøùú öû ñ òî ôðñòíöôø û÷ î ÿÿÿÿTabel 23.
÷ ù ïù ôöû ðòî öòî ú ðûøùú öû ñòîôðñòíö ôø û÷î ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿTabel 24.
îû ðî ó öõ öôîïò ððñ ñòî üù ôöû ðòî îûðñ ðñ÷ ðôð î û ðî îòðøùú öûú öñðñöôö÷ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ
Tabel 25.
îû ðî ó öõ öôîïò ððñ ñòî üù ôöû ðòî îûðñ ðñ÷ ðôð î û ðî îòðøùú öûú öñðñöôö÷ ü öû öõ ý ðý ðñúðôð ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ
Tabel 26.
îûðî ÷ ð÷îò÷ î ï î ð ôðñö ø û÷îûîöô ø øùú öû ñòîôðñò íö ôø û÷îÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ
Tabel 27.
ó öôý ðñúî ñðñ îûðî ! "ø úð ñ ñòî ô ðñòíöô ø û÷ î#
iii
DAFTAR GAMBAR
Ga
$% &'1
.
( )*+r
*m
,l
)r
- ./+01 *2 */(*3 * 4444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 56Ga
$% &'2.
7 89:Time Series
;<=*2>< ? */ 44444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 5@Ga
$% &'3.
A ? )B*= 31.3; <=*2>< ? */ 444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 5CGa
$% &'4.
A ? )B*= 31.3; <=*2>< ? */D= */EF0=G*E) 4444444444444444444444444444444444444444 5HGa
$% &'5.
Plot
, ;I;< = *2>< ? */>*E)1D =*/EF0 =G *E )J */- .GK .J **/ 444444 5LGa
$% &'6.
Plot
- , ;I;<= *2>< ? */>*E)1D =*/EF0 = G*E )J */- .GK .J * */44444 5LGa
$% &'7.
Plot Time Series
M< 2<444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 6@Ga
$% &'8
.
A ? )B*= 31.3M < 2< 444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 6CGa
$% &'9.
Plot
, ;IM<2<> *E)1-.GK .J **/ 444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 6NGa
$% &'1
0.
Plot
- , ;IM< 2<>*E )1- .GK .J **/ 4444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 6NGa
$% &'11
.
Plot Time Series
O .1 .GK *K*/AJ *= * 4444444444444444444444444444444444444444 @6Ga
$% &'1
2.
A ? )B*= 31.3O .1.GK *K */AJ *=* 44444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 @@Ga
$% &'1
3.
Plot
, ;IO.1 .GK *K */AJ*= *> *E )1- .GK .J **/ 44444444444444444444444 @HGa
$% &'1
4.
Plot
- , ;IO .1.GK *K */AJ *=*>*E)1-.GK .J**/ 444444444444444444444 @HGa
$% &'1
5.
Plot
I< /+E )O0= .1*E)M )1*/+;<= *2>< ?*/J ./+*/M< 2< 444444444444 C6Ga
$% &'1
6.
Plot
I < /+E ) O0 = .1 *E ) M )1*/+ ;<=*2 >< ? */ J./+* /P
A
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