• Tidak ada hasil yang ditemukan

PERBANDINGAN MODEL ARIMA DAN FUNGSI TRANSFER PADA PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN KABUPATEN WONOSOBO - Diponegoro University | Institutional Repository (UNDIP-IR) Siti Lis Ina AH

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2017

Membagikan "PERBANDINGAN MODEL ARIMA DAN FUNGSI TRANSFER PADA PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN KABUPATEN WONOSOBO - Diponegoro University | Institutional Repository (UNDIP-IR) Siti Lis Ina AH"

Copied!
22
0
0

Teks penuh

(1)

PERBANDINGAN MODEL ARIMA DAN FUNGSI TRANSFER PADA

PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN KABUPATEN WONOSOBO

SKRIPSI

Disusun Oleh :

SITI LIS INA ATUL HIDAYAH

24010211120006

JURUSAN STATISTIKA

(2)

i

PERBANDINGAN MODEL ARIMA DAN FUNGSI TRANSFER PADA

PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN KABUPATEN WONOSOBO

O eh :

SITI LIS INA ATUL HIDAYAH

24010211120006

Diajukan Sebagai Salah Satu Syarat Tugas Akhir pada

Jurusan Statistika Fakultas Sains dan Matematika Universitas Diponegoro

JURUSAN STATISTIKA

FAKULTAS SAINS DAN MATEMATIKA

UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO

SEMARANG

(3)

udul

: Perbadingan Model ARIMA dan Fungsi Transfer pada Peramalan

Curah Hujan Kabupaten Wonososbo

Nama

: Siti Lis Ina Atul Hidayah

NIM

: 24010211120006

Jurusan

: Statistika

Telah diujikan pada sidang Tugas Akhir tanggal 06 Juli 2015 dan dinyatakan lulus

pada tanggal 14 Juli 2015

Semarang, Juli 2015

Mengetahui,

Ketua Jurusan Statistika

Fakultas Sains dan Matematika

Dra. Hj. Dwi Ispriyanti, M.Si

NIP. 195709141986032001

Mengetahui,

Panitia Penguji Tugas Akhir

Ketua,

(4)
(5)

udul

: P

!

ARIMA

"# $

T

$%&

P

'!

C

#()#*+ #&, - $ $

N

'

: S

,

L

$

I

A

,#!

H

y

(

S

'

, J

#!

2015

NIM

: 24010211120006

J

##$

: S

,,$,.

T

!(#*. &$,# $.( , !

P

' '

I

D

$/0#$1#$

y

, M.S

NIP. 196408131990011001

P

' '

II

(6)
(7)

234 35678374 39

:

lham

dulillah

, puji syukur penulis p

;

nj

;

tk

;

n keh

;

dir

;

t

:

ll

;

h

< = >? ;

t

;

s

r

;

hm

;

t d

;

n hid

;

y

;

h

@A

y

; BCDEFG

s

H;B;I

m

CD

y

CFC

s

;G J;D >E

g

;

s

:JKG L H CD

g

;D

j

EHEF

Perbandingan Model ARIMA dan Fungsi Transfer pada Peramalan Curah

Hujan Kabupaten Wonosobo

M

N;H; JC

s

C

m

B;I ;D GDG BCDEFG

s

GDOG D

m

CDOEP ;BJ ;D I CLG

m

; J;

s

G

h

JCB;H;

s

C

m

E; BG

h

;J

y

;D

g

I CF;

h m

C

m

Q CLGJ;D Q;DI E;D? QG

m

QG D

g

;D H;D HEJED

g

;D

s

CF ;

m

; BL

os

C

s

BCD

y

ERED ;DMSP;B;DI C LG

m

;J;

s

G

h

BCDEFG

s s

;

m

B;G J;DJCB;H ;T

UM VQ E

D

L;M

Hj

M

D

WG V

s

BLG

y

;DIG

,

XM< G

s

CF;JE YCIE;

J

ELER;D <I;IG

s

I G J;

F

;JEFI;

s

< ;GDRH;DX;I C

m

;I G J;

U

DG

v

CL

s

G I ;

s D

GBZ DC

go

L

o

M

[M

B

;B;J

D

L

s

M:

g

ER\ EROG

yo

DZ ? X M<G H;D VQ E ] EPG;D;=GF;DH;LG

,

X M<G

s

CF ;JE HZRCD BC

m

QG

m

QG DO V H;D HZRCD BC

m

QG

m

QGD

g

VV

y

;D

g

I CF;

h

Q CLJC D;D

m

CFE;DOJ ;D W;JIE EDIEJ

m

C

m

Q CLG J;D ;L;

h

;D? QG

m

QGD

g

;D H;D

mo

IG

v

;

s

G

JCB;H;B CDEFG

s

M

^M

B

;B;J_VQ E`

os

CDaELER;D< I ;IG

s

I G J;

U

DG

v

CL

s

G I ;

s D

GBZ DC

go

L

o

M

4

M < C

m

E; BG

h

;J

y

; D

g

ICF;

h m

C

m

Q ;DI E H;F;

m

BCDEFG

s

;D >EO ;

s

: JKGL G DG

y

; DO

IGH;JH;B;IHG

s

CQ EIJ;DR;IEBCL

s

;I EM

NCDEFG

s m

CD

y

;H; LG

m

;

s

G

h

I CLH;B;I JCJEL;D

g

;D H;F;

m

BCD

y

ERED;D > E

g

;

s

: JKGL G DG

, s

C

h

GDO

g

; JLGIGJ H;D

s

;L;D H;LG BC

m

Q ;P ;

s

;D

g

;I HG

h

;L;BJ ;D HC

m

G JC

s

C

m

BELD; ;D BCDEFG

s

;D

s

CF ;DbEI D

y

;M

H

; L;B ;D BCDEFG

s s

C

mog

; >E

g

;

s

:JKG L GDG H;B;IQ CL

m

;Dc; ;IQ ;

g

GBC DEFG

s

JK ERERD

y

;H;DQ;

g

GBC

m

Q ;P ;B ;H;EdEdD

y

;M

< C

m

;L;D

g, J

EFG[eUf

(8)

g

A

h

S

i j

A

k

Cur

l

h huj

l

n merup

l

k

l

n s

l

l

l

h s

l

tu h

l

l y

l

ng mempeng

l

ruhi h

l

sil pert

l

ni

l

n

m

Cur

l

h

huj

l

n y

l

ng terl

l

lu tinggi

l

k

l

n menye

nlnol

n g

l

nggu

l

n p

l

d

l

penyer

npol

n

npqrl

d

l

n menye

nlnol

n t

l

n

l

m

l

n s

l

l

l

k

ns

r

npl

h

l

d

l

musim

m tl

n

l

m

l

n s

l

l

l

k

l

k

l

n

tum

npu nl

ik p

l

d

l

d

l

er

l

h y

l

ng

nl

ny

l

k mend

l

p

l

tk

l

n

vpwl

h h

pxlqm y zl nsnswl{l |lo}

o

w ~lq

g m

s

m

{sq

g

lw p

h



vpwl

h h

pxlq~l }p os€ s

m

nlnlq pzlwl sqsw

g



m

l }l

h

lw lwl

h

zlq osvs{l }lq lq

g

q

s

sw}l

s

pu p pzlwl m ‚sqswl{lq yƒ„…y zlq † pq

gs

 }wlq‡|sw

m

p€}

input

z}pxpolq pq}po

m

s

mo

zs€olq vpwl

h h

pxlq ~lq

g s

s€ lqxp}q~l lolqz€lopolq{swl

m

l€lqnsw zl

s

lw olq

mo

zs€} swnl o~lq

g

} sw{€

h

mˆlwlns€~lq

g

z

g

pqlolq~l  }pvpwl

h h

p

j

lq

s

snl

g

l zsws}

output

zlqos€ s

m

nlnlqpzlwlzlq

s

pu p

s

snl

g

l  zsws}

input

{lzl np€ lq ‰ lqplw Š‹‹Œ

s

l

m

{l 

O

o}

o

nsw Š‹Ž m l

s

€ {sqs€  }lq

m

sqpqx poolq nl

h

l

mo

zs€ yƒ„… y ‘’“”’ Š

]

•

m

s

m

€o q€l  –v

h

lw}— ˜l~s

s

lq ™w}sw

o

q ‘– ˜™• € sn

h

osv€ ~l }p ŠŒ“ ŒŒ zlw{lzl

mo

zs€ |pqr

s

}wlq‡|sw

multi-input

‘‹ ‹ ‹•‘‹ ‹•~l  }pŒ‹šŒš“Šm

(9)

£¤

S

¥¦ £

C

¥

§¨© ª«¨¬¬ © ­ ® ª¯ ® « °±¯ °±© ª²­ °± ¨° ¨««¯³

t

¨ ²´© ³µ¬

t

µ´¨¬ ¶´® ·µ ³

t

©® ª¸ ¹±¯ ±© ²±¯­ ° ¨º®µ ª°® «´ ¨© ª«¨¬¬

w

© ¬¬³ ¨µ­ ¯¶¯´

t

µ´»¨

t

©® ª© ª

t

±¯¶®¬¬©ª¨

t

© ® ª® ««¬®¼

e

´­ ¨ª ·³¨µ­ ¯ · ½ ¨¬ ¨³³¨¶¨¬º

t

®¶´® ·µ ³

e

«´µ©

t

­ª®­ ¯¨­ ® ª® «

t

±¯¾

e

¨´ ¸¿¨¬ ¨ ³³ ¨¶ ¨¬º©­²´®¼©ª²

we

¬¬ © ª±¯ ¨À¾´¨© ª« ¨¬¬ ¨´

e

¨¸¸¹ ±¯´

e

¨´

e

­®º

e

«¨ ³

t

®´­

w

±© ³±©ª«¬µ¯ ª³

e

´¨© ª«¨¬¬Á

t

± ®­ ¯ ¨´

e

 ±µº©·©

t

¾Ã ­®¬¨´

e

ª¯´² ¾Ã

w

© ª· ·© ´

e

³

t

©® ª ¨ª·

À¯¬ ®³©

t

¾ ¨­

we

¬¬ ¨­ ¨© ´

te

º¶

e

´¨

t

µ´

e

¸ ¹±¯ ¨¶¶¬ © ³¨

t

© ® ª ® « Ä

R

ÅÆÄ Çĵ °®´

e

²´

e

­ ­©À¯ Ū°

e

²´¨

te

· Æ®À©ª ² ÄÀ¯´¨ ²¯È ¨ª· ºµ¬

t

© ÉÊËÌÍ

t

´ ¨ª­«

e

´ «µ ª³

t

© ® ª

w

¨­ ©ª°

e

ª·¯ ·

t

® º®·¯¬

t

±¯ ´¨© ª«¨¬ ¬

w

±©³±

w

®µ¬ · »¯ «®´

e

³ ¨­ °

e

· »¨­

e

· ® ª

t

±¯ »¯­ ° º® ·¯¬ ³±®­¯ ª¸ ¹±

e

´

e we

´

e tw

®

k

© ª·­ ® « À¨´© ¨»¬

e

­ µ­ ¯·©ª

t

±©­ ­ °µ · ¾¸¹±®­ ¯

we

´

e

´¨© ª«¨¬¬¨­

t

±¯®µ °¶ µ °­ ¯´©

e

­

w

±© ¬

e

±µº© ·©

t

¾¨ª·¨©´

te

º¶¯´¨

t

µ´

e

¨­

t

±¯ ©ª¶µ ° ­ ¯´©

e

­ ·µ´© ª² Ψªµ ¨´¾ Ï ÐÐÑ

t

®

O

³

t

®»¯´ ÏÐ ÒÓ¸ ¹±¯ ´

e

­ µ¬

t

­ ±®¼

e

·

t

± ¨

t

Ä

R

ÅÆÄ ÇÔ ÕÖÃ ÒÃ ÔÒÏÖÈ ± ¨ · ¨ «

ewe

´ ׳±¼¨´

t

ؽ Ù¨¾

e

­©¨ª Ú´©

te

´© ® ª Ç×ÙÚÈÀ¨¬µ¯ÏÑÕ¸ÒÑÑ

t

± ¨ ªºµ¬

t

© ÉÊËÌÍ

t

´¨ª­«

e

´«µ ª ³

t

©® ªº® ·¯¬ ÇÐÃÐÃÐÈ ÇÐà Òà ÐÈ

w

©

t

±

t

±¯´

e

­µ¬

t

ÑÐÛ¸ÑÛ ÕÏ ¸

(10)
(11)

Autocorrelation Function (ACF)...

Parsial Autocorrelation Function (PACF)...

!"#$%#& ' ()

us

* )+' !"

Autoregressive

, # $,

p

-- !"

Moving Average

,#,

q

-- !"

Autoregressive Moving Average

, #$#,

p

./-- 0 !"

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

,#$% #, 1./- - 0

2 !"3 456 !

t

#$%# 0

0 % !'7* 8* 9+6* !" 0

2 :;*3 * <'* 8* 9+'6 *= ++ )!

r

t

!

r

>

> :;*?* +<' 6 *

s

@

> :;*%' !

p

!' !'6*$ !6 * 4 +" @ > :;*&A)+" *

t

+

s

$ !6 * 4+" @ > :;*B) 6 9 ! +

st

* 6 *

t

+

s

$ !6 * 4+" C @ =!) !"+'D4'<6*E A+'68 !

r

C =!)*" *F+' !"E!

r

5+*9

=!

r

+ )+"+'

G#G%%%

E

E H?

E

=

E

&

E

I%E%# &

3 4 )5 !

r

? +

t

+

(12)

i

x

LMLML N

t

OP QRST

r

Q

t

O

s

UOO

t

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM VW LMLMX YZTS[ Q\Q]OP Q^R ZT_ MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM V` LMLMV

Uji Signi

\ Q]OSPQa O

r

ObT

t

T

r

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM cd LMLMc a Tb T

r

Q]P OOSUQO eSRP Q

s

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM cL LMXa TbR ZT _OSU T

r

T

t

Input

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM cW LMXML a Tb R ZT _OSfg Y^ fNhih MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM cW LMXMLML N

t

OP QRST

r

Q

t

O

s

UO

t

O MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM cW LMXMLMX YZTS[ Q\Q]OP Q^R ZT_MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM cj LMXMLMV

Uji Signi

\ Q]OSPQa O

r

ObT

t

T

r

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM c` LMXMLMc a Tb T

r

Q]P OOSUQO eSRP Q

s

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM WL LMXMLMWa TbQ_ QiOS^ R ZT_kT

r

lOQ ] MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM WV LMXMX a Tb R ZT _OSfg Y^ fmT_ T b lOlOSn ZO

r

O MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM Wc LMXMXMLNOP QRST

t

r

Q

t

O

s

UO

t

O MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM Wc LMXMXMX YZTS[ Q\Q]OP Q^R ZT_MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM Wo LMXMXMV

Uji Signi

\ Q]OSPQa O

r

ObT

t

T

r

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM Wj LMXMXMc a Tb T

r

Q]P OOSUQO eSRP Q

s

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM pd LMVa TbR ZT _OSqhSePQkrOSP\T

r

^ h_

t

Q

Input

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM pV LMVML a Tb

ut

Q iOSU TT

r

t

Input

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM pV LMVMX a Tb

ut

Q iOSU TT

r

t

Output

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM pV LMVMV a Tb lTS[ h]OS qhS ePQm

or

T _OPQ NQ_OSe s

Cross Correlation

Function

t

MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM pc LMVMc a TST

t

OuOS slvPvrt nS[ h] ^R ZT _ qhSePQ krOSP \T

r

^h_

t

Q

(13)

xyzy{

Uji Signi

|}~€ } ‚

r

ƒ„

t

„

r

…†‡„ˆ ‰Š€‹} Œ€ | „

r

…Šˆ

t

}

Input

yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy Ž {

xyzyŽ ‚„ƒ„

r

}~ € } ‹€† }

s

yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy ސ xy‘‚„ ƒ} ˆ}’€ …†‡„ˆ Œ„

r

“ }~ € ”

r

 •–—…• ‡€ ‰ Š€‹ } Œ €|„

r

(14)

Ÿ

i

  ¡ ¢£ ¡¤£ ¡¥¦§

£¨© ª«

1

¬­®¯ °®

± °²³´°² µ¶·´¸ °µ ®²°

y

¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ º £¨© ª«»¬¼°²½¾¿¸ °²À ® ¶°ÁÂà ÄÅÆ Âà ı °´ ®Ç·±È ¯Â¼Ç ¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ ÉÊ £¨© ª«Ë¬ÌÍ ®Î ®Ï¾È

y

Ä¿¯¯ ȴÿ´ °ÐÑ¿ Ͱ²Ñ°µ ®¯³´ °² µ¶·´¸ °µ ® ¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ ÒÓ £¨© ª«Ô¬ÌÍ ®Î ®Ï¾È

y

Ä¿¯¯ ȴÿ´ °ÐÑ¿ Ͱ²Ñ°µ ®¯³´ °² µ¶·´¸ °µ ®± °²Æ ȸ Õȱ ° °² ÒÓ £¨© ª«Ö¬ÌÍ ®À ®½² ®¶®¾ °² µ ®Æ°´ °¸È ÁÈ´Ç·± ȯÿ´°ÐÑ ¿ Ͱ²Ñ °µ ®¯³´ °² µ ¶·´¸ °µ ®

± °²Æ ȸ Õȱ °°²¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ ×É £¨© ª« ج ­®¯°® À Á°Á ®µ Á®¾ ÙÍ¿²½Ú Û·Ü Ã¿´°Ð Ñ¿ Í °² Ѱµ ®¯ ³´ °² µ ¶·´¸°µ® ± °²

Æ È¸ Õȱ °°² ¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ × Ý £¨© ª« Þ¬ ­ ®¯°® À Á °Á ®µ Á ®¾ ÌÍ ® ß·¯¸ ·½·´· à Ú À¸ ®´ ²· à ÿ´°Ð Ñ ¿ Ͱ² Ѱµ ®¯

³´ °² µ ¶·´¸°µ®±°²Æ ȸÕÈ ± °°² ¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ ×Ò £¨© ª«

8

.

­®¯°® À Á°Á ®µ Á®¾ Ì Í® Ù°½´°² ½È Ç¿¯Á®á¯ ®È´ â ÙÇ ã ÿ´°Ð Ñ¿ Í °² Ѱµ ®¯

³´ °² µ ¶·´¸°µ®±°²Æ ȸÕÈ ± °°²¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ ××

Tabel 9.

ÌÍ ®Î ®Ï¾È

y

Ä¿¯¯ È´À¿Ð¿ ¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ × ä

Tabel 10.

ÌÍ ®Î ®Ï¾È

y

Ä¿¯ ¯ È´À¿Ð¿Ñ°µ ®¯Æ ȸ Õȱ °°² ¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ × ä

Tabel 11.

ÌÍ ®À ®½² ®¶®¾ °² µ ®Æ°´ °¸È ÁÈ´Ç·±È¯À¿Ð¿Ñ °µ ®¯Æ ȸ Õȱ °°²¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ Ê å

Tabel 12.

­®¯ °®À Á°Á® µ Á®¾ÙÍ¿² ½Ú Û·ÜÀ¿Ð¿Ñ °µ ®¯ÆÈ¸ Õȱ °°²¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹¹ ÊÉ

Tabel 13.

­®¯ °®À Á°Á® µ Á®¾Ì ͮ߷¯ ¸·½·´· à Ú À¸ ®´²·

v

À¿Ð¿Ñ°µ®¯ Æ È¸Õȱ °°²¹¹ Ê Ý

Tabel 14.

­®¯ °® À Á°Á ®µ Á®¾ ÌÍ ® Ù°½´ °² ½È Ç¿¯ Á ®á¯®È´ âÙÇã À¿Ð¿ Ѱµ ®¯

(15)

èéê ëì

18

.

Uji

Signi

íî ïðñòî ó ðôðõ ö÷ öô øùú öû ü öû öõ ý ðý ðñ

Udara

þ ðòîû

ó öõ ý öú ððñ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ

Tabel 19.

îûðî ÷ ð÷îò÷îï ñ ùü öû öõ ý ðý ðñú ðôðþ ðòîûó öõý öú ððñÿ

Tabel 20.

îûðî ÷ ð÷îò÷ îï î ü ù ûõ ùù ôù õîôñù üöû öõý ðý ðñ úðôð

þ ðòîûó öõ ý öú ððñÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ

Tabel 21.

î û ðî ÷ ð÷îò÷ î ï î ðôðñö ø û÷î ûî öô ø üöû öõý ðý ðñ

ú ðôðþ ðòîûó öõý öú ððñÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ

Tabel 22.

î î ñî íî ïðñòîó ðôðõ ö÷ öôøùú öû ñ òî ôðñòíöôø û÷ î ÿÿÿÿ

Tabel 23.

÷ ù ïù ôöû ðòî öòî ú ðûøùú öû ñòîôðñòíö ôø û÷î ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ

Tabel 24.

îû ðî ó öõ öôîïò ððñ ñòî üù ôöû ðòî îûðñ ðñ÷ ðôð î û ðî îòð

øùú öûú öñðñöôö÷ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ

Tabel 25.

îû ðî ó öõ öôîïò ððñ ñòî üù ôöû ðòî îûðñ ðñ÷ ðôð î û ðî îòð

øùú öûú öñðñöôö÷ ü öû öõ ý ðý ðñúðôð ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ

Tabel 26.

îûðî ÷ ð÷îò÷ î ï î ð ôðñö ø û÷îûîöô ø øùú öû ñòî

ôðñò íö ôø û÷îÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ

Tabel 27.

ó öôý ðñúî ñðñ îûðî ! "ø úð ñ ñòî ô ðñòíöô ø û÷ î

(16)

#

iii

DAFTAR GAMBAR

Ga

$% &'

1

.

( )*+

r

*

m

,

l

)

r

- ./+01 *2 */(*3 * 4444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 56

Ga

$% &'

2.

7 89:

Time Series

;<=*2>< ? */ 44444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 5@

Ga

$% &'

3.

A ? )B*= 31.3; <=*2>< ? */ 444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 5C

Ga

$% &'

4.

A ? )B*= 31.3; <=*2>< ? */D= */EF0=G*E) 4444444444444444444444444444444444444444 5H

Ga

$% &'

5.

Plot

, ;I;< = *2>< ? */>*E)1D =*/EF0 =G *E )J */- .GK .J **/ 444444 5L

Ga

$% &'

6.

Plot

- , ;I;<= *2>< ? */>*E)1D =*/EF0 = G*E )J */- .GK .J * */44444 5L

Ga

$% &'

7.

Plot Time Series

M< 2<444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 6@

Ga

$% &'

8

.

A ? )B*= 31.3M < 2< 444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 6C

Ga

$% &'

9.

Plot

, ;IM<2<> *E)1-.GK .J **/ 444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 6N

Ga

$% &'

1

0.

Plot

- , ;IM< 2<>*E )1- .GK .J **/ 4444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 6N

Ga

$% &'

11

.

Plot Time Series

O .1 .GK *K*/AJ *= * 4444444444444444444444444444444444444444 @6

Ga

$% &'

1

2.

A ? )B*= 31.3O .1.GK *K */AJ *=* 44444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444444 @@

Ga

$% &'

1

3.

Plot

, ;IO.1 .GK *K */AJ*= *> *E )1- .GK .J **/ 44444444444444444444444 @H

Ga

$% &'

1

4.

Plot

- , ;IO .1.GK *K */AJ *=*>*E)1-.GK .J**/ 444444444444444444444 @H

Ga

$% &'

1

5.

Plot

I< /+E )O0= .1*E)M )1*/+;<= *2>< ?*/J ./+*/M< 2< 444444444444 C6

Ga

$% &'

1

6.

Plot

I < /+E ) O0 = .1 *E ) M )1*/+ ;<=*2 >< ? */ J./+* /

(17)

P

A

QR

A

STUV WXSU Y

TZ[\ ] ^Z_

1

.

`

ata

ab

t

b cdbb

t

efdbg h fibj k fl bj bj m ab

t

b cdb

t

b n fg f kflbj bj m obj ab

t

bcdb

t

b pqlq rsbs bj t o bdb k fl bj bj

p bsfub

t

qjvwjwx w swybj fbdz{||}xbrubz~€w sq d{|‚ ƒƒ „‚ TZ[\ ] ^Z_

2.

tiz`z … q

y

†fl lq d ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ „‡ TZ[\ ] ^Z_

3.

~

ut

uf€ˆdw ‰d brnŠn‹w oqlŠa Œ‹ Šefdbgh fibj ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ „ TZ[\ ] ^Z_

4.

~

ut

uf€ˆdw ‰d brnŠn‹w oqlŠa Œ‹ Šnfg f ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ Ž TZ[\ ] ^Z_

5.

~

ut

uf€ˆdw ‰d brnŠn‹w oqlŠa Œ‹ Špql qr sbs bjtobdb ƒƒƒƒ  TZ[\ ] ^Z_

6.

~

ut

uf€ˆdw ‰d brnŠn†fj‰xzpw dqlbx zn z l bj ‰ ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ } TZ[\ ] ^Z_

7.

Œoqj€z z bx z‘z l bz’smxmd“ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ }‡ TZ[\ ] ^Z_

8

.

ˆ qrw oql bj†fj‰x z”dbjx q d‹fl

t

z •–—˜™ ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ  | TZ[\ ] ^Z_

9.

h bxz lˆqdb rblbje fdbgh fi bj šššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššš  | TZ[\ ] ^Z_

1

0.

n zj€b ˆdw ‰d br nŠn Š a Œ‹ Š o bj †fj‰x z ”dbjx q d ‹ fl

t

z

›–—˜™ šššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššššš  |}

TZ[\ ] ^Z_

11

.

”bsqlegz cnœfbdq ž  Ÿ

ƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒƒ 

(18)
(19)
(20)
(21)

]^ _``

t

r

`

n t

^

n

aa^ b

t

`c` d`

n

e` f`g ` g`

n t

hd ih j i`^ g k`_ ` _ `l

r

` j

y

`

n

a i``g

ny

dlc_ `k`

t

g`

n

m

ur

`j jh n`c `

t

`

u

_` l

r

` j

y

` c a

t

l

r

d`eh g

w

^ f``j

y

jh n`c

e lk`c n`c a

t

` jhc _lc a`c m`

ur

jjh n`c fl i^ j_`

r

^ \o pppd d q

t

`jhc

t

l

t

`

p

^

t

^_` g fl i^j _`

r

^ roppp d d q

t

` jhc o s` j

ur

jh n`c `c a

y

t

l

r

f`f

u

i`c

y

` g `g `c d lc

y

l i` ig`c

a`c aa

u

`c k`_`

p

lcl

y

ih g`c

r

ihca` _`c dl c

y

li `ig`c ihc a` ihe hg `ca

y

e l f`c n

ut

c

y

` d lcli` ig` c

y

t

`c`d`c e `f` g il

r

ih`j `_` d he^ d tuc`

r

e ^e b \ppvw o x` f` g

y

`c a _^ j`e ^ f g`c k`_` d he ^d jh n`c mlc_l

r

hc a d ld^ f^ g^ g`c_hca` c `^

r

mh ghk

t

^caa^ be l j^c aa` dlc

y

l i` ig`c ih `j e` f` g ml

p

`

t

ihe h g `c a

y

p

`_` ` gj^

r

c

y

` ` g`c d l

ru

a^g`c kl`c^

t

e ` f` go ylch z

ut

ue _`g t\pp{w `_` il il

r

`k` | `g}

or y

`c a d ldklca`h j^

r

m

ur

` j jh n`c b

y

`^

tu

glfld i` i`c h_`` b

r

lc l

r

a^ d`

t

`j`

r

^ b `

r

` j _`c gl ml

p

``c

r

`c a^c b e l

rt

`

su

jhh_`

r

` o~ fl j g`

r

lc`^

tu

klcl f^

t

^ dl f`gh g`c kl

r

`d` f `c m

ur

` j jh n`c ` a`

r

_`k`

t

_^

pr

l_^ ge ^

w

` g}

u

`k` e`n`

y

`c a dld l

r

fh g`c kl

r

f`gh`c gjhe hek`_`

t

`c`d `ce` f`g` a`

r

j`e ^f

pr

_h ge^e `f` gk }^ d` fo

yl

t

_l |hc ae ^

tr

`ce |l

r

d lhk` g`c

r

e ` f`j e `

tu

d l

t

_l kl

r

`d` f `c

y

` c a _`k`

t

_^ahc` g`chc }h gdl

r

`d ` fg`c _`

t

`_ll

r

t

il

r

g` f`

y

`cadh f

t

^ €`

r

^`

t

oy_l f^c^ d lcaa`ihcag`c ili l

r

` k` g`

r

`g} l

r

^

st

^g `c` f^ e^

s r

la zle ^ il

r

a`c_` _lca` c g`

r

` g}l

r

^

st

^g _ll

r

t

il

r

g` f ` u ‚y u hc^ €`

r

^`

t

o ƒ

o

ce l

p

|hcae ^

tr

`ce|l

r t

l

r

_^

r

^ _`

r

^ _l

r

l

t

„ …†‡ˆ b _l

r

l

t

‰ ‡ˆ†‡ˆ b _`c ^ ckh }Š^ ckh } f`^ c ` c a

y

_^a` ihc ag`c _ ` f`d e`

tu

gl fdk g`c a

y

_^e l ih } a`caa

u

`c oy_l f^ c^_`k`

t

_^ahc` g`chc }h gd lc_` k`

t

g`c klclc }h`cz`d` f`cgl_ l

p

`ce lm`

r

`e ^ dh f

t

`c t y`g

r

^ _` g^

s

‹ˆŒ obŽw o

 `_`klch f^ e`c

t

ha`

s

` gj^

r

^c^b` g`c_^ `d i^f

st

h_^g`

sus

hc }h gd ld

pr

l_^ge ^

(22)

“”• ”–—˜—˜

n

™š˜

r

˜ —™ •˜

n

˜

n

›˜—™ œ˜”

t

n

 žŸž ž—ž  ”—˜ ¡˜ ¢ š ”

r

”

t

£¤¥¦§ œ˜š˜ —™ •˜

n

¨ ˜Ÿ™˜

r

¢©ªª«  ˜– œ˜ ¢ ¬ “­ž— ”

r

©ª ®¯°

±²³ ´

u

µ

us

¶·¸¶¹ ¶º ¶»

¼”

r

š ˜  ˜

r

“˜Ÿ •˜

t

˜

r

— ”• ˜“˜ Ÿ ¡

y

˜Ÿ¡

t

”•˜ ½ š ¢ “”–™ “˜“˜Ÿ¾ œ”

r

–˜ ˜ • ˜ ½˜Ÿ š˜ •˜– œ”Ÿ™ • ¢  ˜Ÿ­™ ¡˜

s

˜ “½¢

r

  ”— ˜ ¡˜ ¢— ”

r

¢“™ ­¿

®° ¼˜¡˜ ¢–˜Ÿ ˜ –žš ”• œ”

r

˜–˜ •˜Ÿ À

ur

˜ ½ ½™Á˜Ÿ ›˜ —™ œ˜

t

”Ÿ  žŸž ž—ž š ”Ÿ ¡˜Ÿ –”Ÿ ¡¡™Ÿ ˜ “˜Ÿ–žš ”•ÂÃÄÅš ˜ŸÆ™Ÿ¡ ¢

tr

˜Ÿ Æ”

r

Ç

© ° È¢˜Ÿ ­˜

r

˜–žš ”• ÃÄÅš˜ŸÆ™Ÿ¡ ¢

tr

˜Ÿ Æ”

r

–˜Ÿ˜“˜ ½

y

˜Ÿ¡– ”

r

™ œ˜ “˜Ÿ–

o

š ”•

t

”

r

—˜¢ “ ˜Ÿ¡

y

š ˜ œ˜

t

š ¢ ¡™Ÿ˜ “˜Ÿ ™Ÿ ­™ “ – ”

r

˜ –˜• “˜Ÿ À

ur

˜ ½ ½™Á˜Ÿ ›˜—™ œ˜

t

”Ÿ  žŸž  ž—žÇ

±²É Ê ¶Ë¶¹ ¶·¸¶¹ ¶º ¶»

Ì ˜š˜ œ”Ÿ™ •¢ ˜Ÿ

tu

¡˜

s

˜“½¢

r

¢Ÿ ¢¾ œ”

r

–˜

s

˜ •˜ ½˜Ÿ š ¢—˜

t

˜ ¢ ½˜Ÿ

y

˜ œ˜š˜ À

ur

˜ ½ ½™Á ˜Ÿ  ”—˜¡˜¢ š ”

r

”

t

Í ¦§¥¦§¾   ™ ½™ š˜Ÿ “”•”–—˜— ˜Ÿ ™š˜

r

˜

s

”—˜ ¡˜ ¢ š ”

r

”

t

£¤¥¦§ š ¢ ›˜—™ œ˜

t

”Ÿ žŸž  ž—žœ˜ š˜—™ •˜Ÿ¨ ˜Ÿ™˜

r

¢©ªª« ˜– œ˜¢—™ •˜Ÿ¬“­ž— ”

r

©ª ®¯°

±²Î Ï

u

Ð

u

¶·ÑÒ·Òº Ó

t

Ó ¶·

Referensi

Dokumen terkait

Dari keadaan diatas penulis ingin mengadakan penelitian tehadap data curah hujan pada masa lalu (dari Januari 2006- Desember 2010), untuk meramalkan curah hujan pada masa yang

Artificial Intellegence yaitu teknologi jaringan syaraf tiruan maka identifikasi pola data dari sistem peramalan curah hujan dapat dilakukan dengan metode

PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN BULANAN DI MEDAN PADA TAHUN 2011 BERDASARKAN DATA KELEMBABAN UDARA DARI TAHUN 2006 –.. 2010 DENGAN FUNGSI

Berdasarkan hasil analisa pada peramalan jumlah curah hujan di kota Bandung dengan model fungsi transfer multivariate pada deret berkala pola musiman, dengan