Bogor, 23 Oktober 2009
REDD
REDD dan
dan REDD Plus
REDD Plus
Dalam
Dalam Struktur
Struktur
Negosiasi
Negosiasi Global
Global
Doddy S. Sukadri
Dewan Nasional Perubahan Iklim ( DNPI)
Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI
REDD: Dari Montreal ke Kopenhagen
Outline
Outline
Struktur Negosiasi Global
Menuju Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkah kita ?
Some energy is radiated back into space by the earth in the form of infrared waves Some energy is radiated back into space by the earth in the form of infrared waves
Some of this outgoing infrared radiation is trapped by the earth’s atmosfir and warms it Some of this outgoing infrared radiation is trapped by the earth’s atmosfir and warms it
Most of this radiation is absorbed by the Earth and warms it Most of this radiation is absorbed by the Earth and warms it
Skema terjadinya pemanasan global dan
perubahan iklim di dunia
Kegiatan manusia
Perkiraan
Perkiraan emisi
emisi karbon
karbon dunia
dunia sampai
sampai
tahun
tahun 2100
2100
•IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) range from 0 to 250 GT / y•E = P*A*T
where P = Population A = GDP / cap; T = EMI * ENI; EMI = Emission intensity of energy; ENI = Energy intensity of the economy (Energy used per unit of GDP)Selama
Selama 650
650 tahun
tahun,
, emisi
emisi karbon
karbon tidak
tidak pernah
pernah
setinggi
Konsentrasi
Konsentrasi karbon
karbon di
di atmosfir
atmosfir dan
dan rata
rata--rata
rata
temperatur
temperatur selama
selama 1000
1000 tahun
tahun terakhir
terakhir
1 Scientists believe that reducing global CO2e emissions to the 450 ppm level provides a 40-60% chance of preventing global temperatures from rising more
than 2 degrees Celsius. 2 Business as Usual Perubahan relative
dibanding BAU 1, % 29 20
Change relative to
BAU2, % -9 -29
SOURCE: IPCC, McKinsey & Company Pathways to a Low-Carbon Economy, 2009
Sampai 2030 emisi GRK dunia perlu diturunkan untuk
mencapai 450 ppm
Global emission per year (Gt CO2e) BAU2 450 ppm with overshoot (peak at 510 ppm) 1.5% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 0 45 55 65 75 -17 -35 61 70 52 47 44 35 -3 -50Dewan
Dewan Nasional
Nasional Perubahan
Perubahan Iklim
Iklim
(DNPI)
(DNPI)
Peraturan
Peraturan PresidenPresiden NomorNomor 46 /2008 46 /2008
ORGANIZATION MANDATES
Pengurus
Pengurus Harian
Harian DNPI
DNPI
Ketua Harian Mitigation Task Force Members Adaptation Task Force Members Finance Task Force Members Post Kyoto Task Force Members Tech. transfer Task Force Scientific based Task Force LULUCF Task Force Marine Task Force Secretariat
Members Members Members Members
Para ketua dan anggota Kelompok Kerja terdiri dari para pihak utama, terdiri dari unsur-unsur Pemerintah, LSM, Swasta, akademisi dan profesional.
Executive Secretary International Cooperation Communica-tion, Informa-tion, and Education Research and Capacity Building Clean Development Mechanism Internal Relations and Legal Aspects Finance and Administration
Koordinator
Koordinator kegiatan
kegiatan di
di
bawah
bawah Sekretariat
Sekretariat
DNPI
DNPI
Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI
REDD: Dari Montreal ke Kopenhagen
Outline
Outline
Struktur Negosiasi Global
Menuju Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkah kita ?
COP-1 1995 Berlin Mandate COP-4 1998 Buenos Aires Plan of Action COP-5 1999 Bonn COP-6 2000 The Hague COP-6 bis 2001 Bonn Agreements COP-7 2001 Marrakesh Accord COP-9 2003 Milan A/R CDM COP-3 1997 Kyoto Protocol COP-2 1996 Geneva Ministerial Declaration COP-10 2004 Buenos Aires Program of Work COP-11 2005 Montreal MOP1 AWG COP-12 2006 Nairobi Work Program COP-13 Nusa Dua Indonesia BALI ROADMAP COP – 14 2008 Poznan COP – 15 2009 Copenhagen AGREED OUTCOME COP-8 2002 New Delhi Declaration
Empat
Empat jalur
jalur negosiasi
negosiasi UNFCCC
UNFCCC
AWG-LCA 6 •REDD •Annex I Commitments •Adaptation •TT and Capacity building SBSTA 30 •REDD •CDM Reform •Adaptation •Response measures SBI 30 •TT and Capacity building •Adaptation •Response measures AWG-KP8 •Annex I Commitments •CDM Reform •Response measures
Overlapping areas
UNFCCC = UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Kyoto Protocol (KP)
G77+China (132) AOSIS (48) ASIAN GRULAC EIT LDC (43) AFRICAN EU (27) WEOG Umbrella (9)
Kelompok
Kelompok negara
negara dalam
dalam negosiasi
negosiasi
perubahan
perubahan iklim
iklim
Shared vision for
cooperative action Technology Transfer
Adaptation Mitigation
Finance
BALI ACTION PLAN
Empat
Empat pilar
pilar utama
utama visi
visi bersama
bersama
perubahan
Visi
Visi bersama
bersama
Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI
REDD: Dari Montreal to Copenhagen
Outline
Outline
Struktur Negosiasi Global
Menuju Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkah kita ?
REDD: Dari Montreal
REDD: Dari Montreal ke
ke Kopenhagen
Kopenhagen
Montreal : Proposal PNG dan Costa Rica on REDD
Bali Action Plan: Policy approaches
and possible incentives
Copenhagen: Decision on the
Future of REDD post 2012
2005
2007
2009
DEFORESTASI
= konversi lahan berhutan menjadi tidakberhutan karena kegiatan manusia
Skim insentif yang dikembangkan bagi masyarakat dan negara untuk melindungi hutannya dari kegiatan2 yang akan meningkatkan emisi karbon karena kegiatan deforestasi dan degradasi hutan
DEGRADASI HUTAN = Kerusakan ekosistem hutan akibat hilangnya sebagian tutupan hutan, kerapatan hutan, penurunan kualitas biodiversity
DEFORESTASI DAN DEGRADASI HUTAN
MENGURANGI KEMAMPUAN HUTAN MENYERAP KARBON DI ATMOSFIR SEHINGGA MENINGKATKAN EFEK GRK
Apa
Apa
Apa
Mengapa
Mengapa
Harus
Harus
REDD ??
REDD ??
REDD, REDD Plus
REDD, REDD Plus dan
dan Alih
Alih Guna
Guna Lahan
Lahan (LULUCF)
(LULUCF)
SFM
REDD
Conservation ECS
Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI
REDD: Dari Montreal ke Kopenhagen
Outline
Outline
Struktur Negosiasi Global
Menuju Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkah kita ?
Pandangan ke depan: REDD dan REDD Plus
-60 -20 20 40 60 -160 -140 -120 -80 -100 200 400 600 800 Reduction potential2 MtCO2e per year
0 -40 2,400 2,200 2,000 0 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
REDD Indonesia REDD berpotensi mengurangi emisi
karbon sampai 2.3 Gt per tahun sampai 2030
SOURCE: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve
Geothermal REDD from
small holders
High efficiency appliances
Internal combustion engine improvements in passenger cars Switching to LEDs Water mgmt. & rewetting in peatlands Large hydro REDD – timber extraction REDD – intensive plantations dryland forest Reforestation
1 Societal perspective implies utilizing a 4% discount rate
2. The width of each bar represents the volume of potential reduction. The height of each bar represents the cost to capture each reduction initiative Societal perspective1, 2030
Including more than 150 levers from forestry, agriculture, peatland , transportation, building and cement industry
Diduga memberikan kontribusi lebih dari
50 % emisi karbon dunia
(dari proses dekomposisi)
SOURCE: Hooijer et al 2006; Wetlands International; Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve
100%
Indonesia Neg tropis lainnya1 Sisanya di dunia Emisi karbon dari proses dekomposisi 58 24 18 Luas 5 5 90
•
Walaupun luasnya hanya 10% dari lahan gambut di dunia, namun lebih 80% emisi karbon dunia dari proses dekomposisi terjadi di wilayah tropis;•
Dari jumlah tersebut, lebih dari separuhnya terjadi di Indonesia.1 Malaysia, Papua New Guinea; Democratic Republik of Congo, Brazil 2 Canada, Russia, Scandinavia, USA
Peat fire
Decomposition after drainage
Emisi lahan gambut disebabkan dekomposisi dan kebakaran
lahan yang telah terdegradasi. Pembukaan lahan gambut baru
akan meningkatkan emisi karbon dimasa depan
ILLUSTRATIVE Pembukaan lahan gambut saat ini Pembukaan lahan gambut saat ini Di masa datang??? Di masa datang??? Removal of biomass above ground (logging) Decomposition after drainage Peat fire
Note: The curve presents an estimate of the maximum potential of all technical GHG abatement measures below EUR 60 per tCO2e if each lever was pursued aggressively. It is not a forecast of what role different abatement measures and technologies will play. Assuming a 4% societal discount rate
600 500 300 200 100 0 10 0 30 5 15 20 20 25 1,200 15 11 7
Potensi biaya pengurangan emisi
MtCO2e per year 4 4 1 1,100 400 700 800 900 1,000 6
Reducing deforestation and undertaking A/R could
potentially turn forestry sector to be the carbon sink by 2030
Sumber:: Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve
REDD – small-holder agriculture Marginal land afforestation Forest manage-ment Reforest-ation REDD – timber extraction Cropland afforest-ation REDD – Intensive plantation -pulpwood REDD – Intensive plantation – palm oil Perspektif sosial 2030 Preliminary finding
Pengurangan emisi karbon di Indonesia dapat dilakukan
dengan biaya relatif murahapabila dilakukan di sektor
Possible scenario in forestry sector development
Sumber:: Min. of Forestry – Statistics 2000 and 2007; Indonesia GHG Abatement Cost Curve
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 •In a BAU scenario’ a constant deforestation at 2000 to 2005 levels is assumed •In an ‘abatement scenario’, a gradual limitation of deforestation and a massive afforestation/ reforestation effort will take place Chart Title , 67.500005 , 120.100005 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 A x is T it le
Historical and future scenario of Indonesian forest area
‘000 ha
Historical deforestation BAU scenario Abatement scenario
ILUSTRASI
Pengantar: Pemanasan global dan DNPI
REDD: Dari Montreal to Copenhagen
Outline
Outline
Struktuir Negosiasi Global
Menuju Kopenhagen: Sudah siapkah kita ?
Usulan
Usulan beberapa
beberapa negara
negara untuk
untuk
komitmen
komitmen pasca
pasca 2012
2012
1. “Copenhagen Agreement” (EU)
2. “Copenhagen Protocol” (Developed countries,
but USA)
3. “Implementing Agreement” (USA)
4. Second period of commitment (China, South
Africa, India, Brazil dan Saudi Arabia)
5. Legally binding instrument (Brazil and South
Africa)
6. “COP Decision” (India and China)
7. “National Schedules” (Australia)
Recognize Bali Action Plan as a framework for
Copenhagen Agreed Outcome, including a shared
vision that will not only underline long-term
stabilization goal but also incorporate the four building
blocks (mitigation, adaptation, finance and technology
transfer);
Recognize the need of contribution of all Parties to the
post-2012 framework and will actively participate on
the development of appropriate forms of NAMAs and
the MRV criteria for the finance and technology
support by developed countries
Usulan
Usulan Indonesia
Indonesia
Perlunya
Perlunya lima
lima kejelasan
kejelasan politis
politis dalam
dalam
negosiasi
negosiasi perubahan
perubahan iklim
iklim global
global
The Annex-1 target for both aggregate and individual
numbers
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Commitment and
Actions (NAMACs) of the developed countries vs the
Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) for the
developing countries
Financing clarity for adaptation and mitigation efforts in
developing countries
Governance structures for taking care the financing and
Understanding the role of developed and developing countries in tackling the climate change threats
Understanding the CO2 emission from inside and outside of
forestry sectors, based on scientific arguments (for the medium and long term emission reduction);
Understanding REDD and REDD Plus, including pre-requisites
conditions, such as MRV and financing scheme.
Understanding the policy and strategic options for carbon
emission reduction
