Country INDONESIA Country Rating S & P (LTFLC) BB+ Moody’s ( LTFLC) Baa3 Fitch (LTFLC) BBB-Analysts Yudistira Slamet +62-21-29555777 ext. 3400 yudistiras@danareksa.com Amir A. Dalimunthe +62-21-29555777 ext. 3405 amirda@danareksa.com Rifki Rizal +62-21-29555777 ext. 3404 rifkir@danareksa.com Ayesha Ardelia +62-21-29555777 ext. 3406 ayesha@danareksa.com Melissa Hartono +62-21-29555777 ext. 3402 melissah@danareksa.com Eka Nuraini +62-21-29555777 ext. 3407 ekan@danareksa.com
In 2015, the Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index increased by an
average of 86bps from 8.01% at the end of 2014 to 8.87% at the end of 2015.
Yet despite the increasing yield, government bonds still recorded a total return
of 3.16% in 2015. All in all, the bearish sentiment on both Indonesia’s bond
and stock markets was attributable to adverse global developments in 2015.
The increase in the Fed Funds rate, Yuan devaluation and economic slowdown
in China, in addition to the prolonged economic crisis in Greece, were the key
events which raised global risk. This prompted investors to seek higher yields
to compensate for the higher risk. The prospects of the global economy are
predicted to improve in 2016, although gradually. In addition, manageable
inflation should create room for Bank Indonesia to lower the BI Rate this year.
This should boost consumption and investment and lead to brisker economic
growth. Falling interest rates will also help to strengthen bond prices and
stimulate foreign inflows into the bond market. In terms of risk, the slump in
global crude oil prices may put pressures on the prices of export commodities
and adversely affect the current account and state budget.
More Prospective Year
Country INDONESIA Sovereign Rating LT Foreign S & P BB+ Moody’s Baa3 Fitch
BBB-Market size in Dec 2015
Government Bond IDR 1,461.80 tn Corporate Bond IDR 252.20 tn
Indonesia Bonds Market 2015
Perjuangan melewati ketidakpastian
Selama tahun 2015, Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index mencatatkan peningkatan dengan rata-rata sebesar 86bps dari 8,01% pada akhir 2014 menjadi 8,87% per akhir tahun 2015. Meskipun yield mengalami peningkatan, obligasi Pemerintah masih mencatatkan total return sebesar 3,16% selama tahun 2015. Tren bearish yang terjadi di pasar obligasi maupun saham lebih didominasi oleh faktor-faktor global selama tahun 2015. Kenaikan suku bunga acuan Fed Funds Rate, devaluasi Yuan dan perlambatan ekonomi di China serta krisis ekonomi di Greece menjadi faktor-faktor global yang menyebabkan tingkat risiko meningkat. Oleh karena itu, investor meminta yield yang lebih tinggi sebagai kompensasi atas risiko yang juga mengalami peningkatan.
Yield Curve obligasi Pemerintah selama tahun 2015 shifted upwards dari posisinya di akhir tahun 2014. Selain itu,
peningkatan untuk tenor pendek sedikit lebih besar dibandingkan dengan tenor menengah maupun panjang. Secara rata-rata, yield curve tenor pendek meningkat sebesar 95bps sementara untuk tenor menengah dan panjang masing-masing mengalami peningkatan sebesar 87bps dan 64bps. Hal tersebut menyebabkan bentuk yield curve yang menjadi sedikit lebih flat selama tahun 2015. Yield slope (selisih yield
curve 10- dan 2-tahun) juga mengalami penurunan dari 59bps
menjadi 41bps selama periode yang sama.
Struggling through the storm
In 2015, the Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index increased by an average of 86bps from 8.01% at the end of 2014 to 8.87% at the end of 2015. Yet despite the increasing yield, government bonds still recorded a total return of 3.16% in 2015. All in all, the bearish sentiment on both Indonesia’s bond and stock markets was attributable to adverse global developments in 2015. The increase in the Fed Funds rate, Yuan devaluation and economic slowdown in China, in addition to the prolonged economic crisis in Greece, were the key events which raised global risk. This prompted investors to seek higher yields to compensate for the higher risk.
The Government bonds yield curve shifted upwards in 2015 from its position at the end of 2014. The short term yield went up more than the medium and long term yields. On average, the short term yield curve climbed 95bps while the medium and long tenors rose 87bps and 64bps respectively. This created a flatter yield curve in 2015. The yield slope (the difference between the 10- and 2- year tenors) declined from 59bps to 41bps in the same period.
Exhibit 1. Bearish trend of Government Bond
6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% Ja n -15 Feb -1 5 Ma r-15 A p r-15 M ay -15 Ju n -15 Ju l-15 Au g-15 Se p -1 5 O ct -1 5 N o v-15 D ec-15 FR0053 - 5yr FR0056 - 10yr FR0073 - 15yr FR0072 - 20yr Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 2. Yield curve flattening
5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15
Investor asing tetap optimis
Pergerakan kepemilikan investor asing merupakan salah satu indikator untuk melihat pandangan investor global terhadap obligasi Indonesia. Selama tahun 2015, kepemilikan investor asing di obligasi Pemerintah meningkat Rp97 triliun (atau tumbuh 21%) dari Rp461 triliun pada akhir tahun 2014 menjadi Rp558 triliun. Secara persentase, porsi kepemilikan asing juga mengalami peningkatan walau tidak signifikan sebesar 0,05%. Dengan kata lain, investor asing masih optimis untuk berinvestasi di Indonesia dengan menjaga proporsi kepemilikannya. Namun di sisi lain, kepemilikan investor asing di obligasi korporasi terus mengalami penurunan sejak Maret 2015. Kepemilikan investor asing turun Rp5,3 triliun selama periode Maret hingga Desember 2015 dan menutup akhir tahun 2015 di level Rp18,4 triliun atau 7,29% dari total
outstanding.
Foreign investors remain optimistic
Changes in foreign ownership can indicate how global investors view Indonesian bonds. In 2015, foreign ownership in government bonds increased by IDR97 trillion (or up 21%) from IDR461 trillion at the end of 2014 to IDR558 trillion. In terms of the proportion of bonds held, foreign ownership increased slightly by 0.05%. In other words, foreign investors remained optimistic towards the prospects for the Indonesian bonds market since they maintained their ownership level. By contrast, foreign ownership in corporate bonds has continued to decline since March 2015. Foreign ownership fell by IDR5.3 trillion in the period from March to December 2015 to end the year at IDR18.4 trillion or 7.29% of the total amount outstanding.
Exhibit 3. Foreign ownership in Government Bond
37% 37% 38% 38% 39% 39% 40% 40% 41% 450 470 490 510 530 550 570 D ec-14 Ja n -15 Feb -1 5 Ma r-15 A p r-15 M ay -15 Ju n -15 Ju l-15 Au g-15 Se p -1 5 O ct -1 5 N o v-15 D ec-15
Foreign Ownership (LHS) Foreign Ownership (%)
Source: Ministry of Finance
7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 D ec-14 Ja n -15 Feb -1 5 Ma r-15 A p r-15 M ay -15 Ju n -15 Ju l-15 Au g-15 Se p -1 5 O ct -1 5 N o v-15 D ec-15
Foreign Ownership (LHS) Foreign Ownership (%)
IDR tr
illion
IDR tr
illion
Exhibit 4. Foreign ownership in Corporate Bond
Demand rendah dari Bank Domestik
Selama tahun 2015, kepemilikan bank domestik di Obligasi Pemerintah hanya mengalami peningkatan sebesar Rp54,4 triliun atau sekitar 21,6% dari total penerbitan selama tahun tersebut. Angka tersebut lebih rendah jika dibandingkan dengan kepemilikan investor asing yang meningkat Rp97,2 triliun (38,6% dari total penerbitan) selama periode yang sama. Per akhir 2015, kepemilikan bank domestik (tidak termasuk
reverse repo) berada di level Rp340,3 triliun atau 23,3% dari
total outstanding.
Rendahnya minat bank domestik tersebut merupakan dampak dari ketatnya likuiditas di sistem perbankan. Meningkatnya JIBOR (Jakarta Interbank Offered Rate) Rate mendorong bank dengan likuiditas berlebih untuk berinvestasi di pasar JIBOR daripada di pasar obligasi karena tingkat risiko volatilitas pasar yang lebih rendah. Yield indeks obligasi Pemerintah di akhir tahun 2015 berada di level 8,72%, sedangakan JIBOR 3-bulan berada di level 8,86%.
Less demand from Domestic Banks
In 2015, Domestic Banks’ ownership in IDR Government Bonds only increased by IDR54.4 trillion, or an estimated 21.6% of the total issuances that year. This is very low compared to foreign investors’ ownership that increased by IDR97.2 trillion, or 38.6% of the total issuances, during the same period. By the end of 2015, the total amount of IDR Government Bonds held by Domestic Banks (exclude reverse repo) stood at IDR340.3 trillion or 23.3% of the total amount outstanding.
The lack of interest from Domestic Banks is understandable given the tight liquidity in the Indonesian Banking system. With a rising JIBOR (Jakarta Interbank Offered Rate), banks with excess liquidity have chosen to place their liquidity in the JIBOR market rather than the bonds market since market risk is lower. At the end of 2015, IDR Government bonds yield index stood at 8.72% while the average 3-month JIBOR rate was 8.86%.
Exhibit 5. Foreign ownership in Government Bond
Source : Bloomberg, MoF
275 285 295 305 315 325 335 345 355 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.0 D ec-14 Ja n-15 Ja n-15 Feb -1 5 Feb -1 5 Ma r-15 Ma r-15 A pr-15 A pr-15 M ay -15 M ay -15 Ju n-15 Ju n-15 Ju n-15 Ju l-15 Ju l-15 Au g-15 Au g-15 Se p-1 5 Se p-1 5 O ct -1 5 O ct -1 5 N ov -15 N ov -15 D ec-15 D ec-15 D ec-15
domestic bank (excl. reverse repo) Benchmark 10Y (LHS)
JIBOR 3-mo (LHS)
Kembalinya raksasa telekomunikasi
Penerbitan obligasi IDR Korporasi selama tahun 2015 didominasi oleh sektor multifinance dengan total penerbitan mencapai Rp23,7 triliun atau 37,87% dari total penerbitan tahun lalu. Sektor banking berada di peringkat ke-dua dengan total penerbitan sebesar Rp20,3 triliun atau 32,36% dari total penerbitan. Sektor telekomunikasi menjadi sektor dengan pertumbuhan terbesar jika dibandingkan dengan tahun 2014. Penerbitan obligasi dari sektor telekomunikasi tumbuh 420% dari Rp2,5 triliun pada tahun 2014 menjadi Rp13 triliun di tahun 2015. Hal ini disebabkan oleh beberapa emiten seperti TLKM dan EXCL yang kembali menerbitkan obligasi di tahun 2015. Sebelumnya, penerbitan obligasi TLKM yang terakhir tercatat pada tahun 2010, sementara penerbitan EXCL terakhir tercatat pada tahun 2007.
Return of the telecommunication giants
The issuance of rupiah corporate bonds in 2015 mostly came from the multi-finance sector with total issuances reaching IDR23.7 trillion or 37.87% of the previous year’s issuance. The banking sector ranked second with total issuances of IDR20.3 trillion or 32.36% of the total. The telecommunication sector showed the fastest growth with issuances surging 420% from IDR2.5 trillion in 2014 to IDR13 trillion in 2015. In this sector, TLKM and EXCL had bond reissuances in 2015. Previously, TLKM’s last issuance was in 2010, while EXCL last issued bonds in 2007.
Exhibit 6. Corporate Bond issuance in 2014 by sector
Financial Company 41.62% Banking 25.36% Property & Construction 7.15% Telco 5.41% Consumer Goods 4.87% Infrastructure 4.33% Retail 4.33% Others 6.93% Source: IDX Financial Company 37.87% Banking 32.36% Telecommuni cation 20.74% Property & Construction 6.10% Consumer Goods 2.39% Transportasi 0.54% Exhibit 7. Corporate Bond Issuance in 2015 by sector
Obligasi berperingkat AAA mendominasi
Berdasarkan rating, penerbitan obligasi korporasi selama tahun 2015 didominasi oleh rating AAA dengan persentase sebesar 65,75%. Hal ini yang menjadi alasan penerbitan obligasi korporasi meningkat signifikan walaupun pasar obligasi berada dalam tren bearish selama tahun lalu. Rata-rata
yield index selama tahun 2015 tercatat sebesar 8,23%, hanya
turun 2bps dari rata selama tahun 2014. Sedangkan rata-rata kupon pada penerbitan obligasi dengan rating A hingga AAA pada 2015 mencapai 10,04%, atau turun hingga 60bps.
AAA rated bonds dominated
Based on the rating, issuances of corporate bonds were dominated by AAA rated bonds which accounted for 65.75% of the total. This explains the significant increase in corporate bonds issuances even though sentiment in the government bonds market was bearish last year. The average yield index in 2015 stood at 8.23% or down by 2bps from the average in 2014. By comparison, the average coupon on the A until AAA rated bond issuances in 2015 stood at 10.04% or down by 60bps.
Exhibit 8. Corporate Bond issuance in 2014 by rating
AAA 40.90% AA+ 20.03% AA 13.42% 8.66% AA-A+ 3.46% A 12.96% BBB 0.55% Source: IDX AAA 65.75% AA+ 8.83% AA 8.79% AA-3.23% A+ 2.90% A 6.84% BBB 0.24% Exhibit 9. Corporate Bond issuance in 2015 by rating
Meningkatnya risiko
Sovereign maupun currency risk premium berada dalam tren
meningkat di tahun 2015, menggambarkan tingkat risiko yang meningkat. Sovereign risk premium (yield spread antara USD INDON dan US Treasury 10-tahun) meningkat 52bps selama tahun 2015 dan menutup akhir tahun di level 245bps. Sementara itu, yield spread antara SUN dan USD INDON atau
currency risk premium meningkat 26bps dari 370bps pada akhir
2014 menjadi 396bps di akhir 2015.
Yield USD INDON 10-tahun menutup akhir tahun 2015 di level
4,76%, atau meningkat 63bps selama tahun 2015. Sebelumnya,
yield USD INDON sempat menyentuh angka 5,07% pada
tanggal 14 Desember 2015, sekaligus menjadi level tertinggi sejak Maret 2014. Peningkatan yield USD INDON juga diikuti oleh kenaikan Credit Default Swap (atau CDS) sebesar 70bps selama periode yang sama menjadi 230bps. Indeks harga obligasi USD INDON turun 1,5%, sedikit lebih baik jika dibandingkan dengan kinerja obligasi USD Emerging Market –
Investment Grade yang juga mencatatkan loss sebesar 2,37%.
Di sisi lain, indeks harga obligasi Amerika Serikat mencatatkan
gain sebesar 0,85% selama periode 2015.
Increased risk
Both the sovereign and currency risk premiums showed an increasing trend in 2015. The sovereign risk premium (yield spread between the 10-year USD INDON and the 10-year US Treasury) rose 52bps to 245bps last year. As for the currency risk premium – as measured by the yield spread between the SUN and USD INDON – it rose by 26bps from 370bps at the end of 2014 to 396bps at the end of 2015.
The USD INDON 10-year yield ended 2015 at 4.76%, or up by 63bps over the year. Previously, the USD INDON yield had reached 5.07% on 14 December 2015, its highest level since March 2014. In line with the rising USD INDON yield, the Credit Default Swap (CDS) increased by 70bps to 230bps during the same period. In addition to this, the price index of the USD INDON fell 1.5%, slightly better than the performance of investment grade emerging market USD bonds which recorded a loss of 2.37%. By comparison, the US bond price index climbed 0.85% during the same period.
Exhibit 10. Sovereign risk premium 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% O ct -1 4 N o v-14 D ec-14 Ja n -15 Feb -1 5 Ma r-15 A p r-15 M ay -15 Ju n -15 Ju l-15 Au g-15 Se p -1 5 O ct -1 5 N o v-15
Sovereign Risk Premium (RHS) UST 10Y INDON 10Y
Source: www.ustreasury.gov, Bloomberg
300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 6.5% 7.5% 8.5% 9.5% 10.5% O ct -1 4 N o v-14 D ec-14 Ja n -15 Feb -1 5 Ma r-15 A p r-15 M ay -15 Ju n -15 Ju l-15 Au g-15 Se p -1 5 O ct -1 5 N o v-15
Currency Risk Premium (RHS) INDON 10Y SUN 10Y Exhibit 11. Currency risk premium
Perbaikan yang mengesankan
Total return obligasi korporasi selama tahun 2015 mencapai 9,15%, sedikit lebih rendah dari total return tahun 2014 yang mencapai 10,24%. Selain itu, sektor multifinance menjadi kontributor terbesar dalam performa obligasi korporasi tahun 2015 dengan return mencapai 11,13%, mengalahkan sektor
banking dan consumer goods yang hanya mencatatkan return
masing-masing sebesar 8,96% dan 8,52%.
Meski sempat menyentuh angka negatif, namun total return obligasi Pemerintah berhasil rebound dan mencatatkan return positif selama tahun 2015. Total return obligasi Pemerintah selama tahun 2015 sebesar 3,16%, turun signifikan sebesar 10,08% dari performa di tahun 2014 yang mencapai 13,24%.
An impressive recovery
The total return on corporate bonds reached 9.15% in 2015, slightly lower than the total return in 2014 of 10.24%. The multi-finance sector contributed the most to the performance of corporate bonds last year with a total return of 11.13%, outperforming the banking and consumer goods sectors which recorded returns of 8.96% and 8.52% respectively.
Although the return on government bonds was negative for a while, the total return on government bonds in 2015 still managed to reach 3.16%, or down by 10.08% from the return in 2014 of 13.24%.
Exhibit 12. Government bond’s performance
110 115 120 125 130 135 -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% Ja n -14 Feb -1 4 Ma r-14 A p r-14 M ay -14 Ju n -14 Ju l-14 Au g-14 Se p -1 4 O ct -1 4 N o v-14 D ec-14 Ja n -15 Feb -1 5 Ma r-15 A p r-15 M ay -15 Ju n -15 Ju l-15 Au g-15 Se p -1 5 O ct -1 5 N o v-15 D ec-15 Total Return Price Index
Source: Danareksa Estimates
Exhibit 13. Total return Indonesia bond market
SECTOR YTD Total Return
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Composite 20.82 20.89 12.20 -10.14 12.95 4.01 Governments 21.47 22.00 12.52 -13.18 13.24 3.16 Corporates 16.52 15.07 10.81 4.70 10.24 9.15 Finance 14.87 9.59 10.10 5.17 10.16 11.13 Banking 15.04 14.57 12.04 5.52 10.51 8.96 Consumer Goods Industry 18.40 13.24 9.05 6.58 5.13 8.52 Telecommunication 19.66 16.41 9.41 -1.15 10.27 8.35 Infrastructure, Utilities & 16.84 15.80 10.07 6.85 9.86 4.19 Transportation
Property and Construction -0.93 22.05 13.16 6.97 9.99 7.72 Corporate upper A- 17.19 14.83 10.75 4.84 10.25 9.07 Corporate below A- 9.99 19.10 12.80 -1.67 9.98 12.95 up to
BBB-SOE 16.14 17.72 9.95 3.16 10.33 8.13 Source: Bloomberg
Tingginya kebutuhan penerbitan
Berdasarkan asumsi makroekonomi dalam RAPBN 2016, target penerbitan SBN tahun 2016 mencapai Rp542,6 triliun, meningkat 8% dari target 2015. Tingginya target penerbitan tahun 2016 mendorong Pemerintah untuk melakukan
funding agar supply SBN di tahun 2016 terkendali. Total pre-funding yang dilakukan oleh Pemerintah mencapai Rp62,25
triliun, atau 11,5% dari total kebutuhan 2016.
Larger issuances needed
Based on the macroeconomic assumptions in RAPBN 2016, the target for SBN issuances in 2016 is IDR542.6 trillion, or up 8% from the target in 2015. The higher target in 2016 will require the government to carry out pre-funding in order to provide a controllable supply of SBN in 2016. Total pre-funding by the government reached IDR62.25 trillion, or 11.5% of the total issuances needed in 2016.
Exhibit 14. SBN issuance need 2016
Source: MoF
Explanation Budget 2016 Realization as of Jan 16 Realization to
Budget 2016 (%)
Government Securities Net 327.22 66.74 20.39%
Government securities Maturing in 2016 and Buyback 215.35 8.75 4.06%
Issuance Need 2016 542.58 75.49 13.91% Prefunding 2016 FR0046 IDR 7 tn FR0070 IDR 7 tn PBS009 IDR 1 tn RI26 USD 2.25 bn RI46 USD 1.25 bn
Total Prefunding 2016* IDR 62.25 tn
*USDIDR = 13,500
Indonesia Bonds Market Outlook 2016
Sektor Perbankan dan Multifinance masih dominan
Total jatuh tempo obligasi korporasi tahun 2016 mencapai Rp50,9 triliun dan didominasi oleh sektor banking dengan total jatuh tempo mencapai Rp22 triliun, atau 43,3% dari total. Sementara sektor multifinance berada di posisi kedua dengan jatuh tempo sebesar Rp21 triliun (40,7% dari total jatuh tempo). Penerbitan obligasi di tahun 2016 diperkirakan masih didominasi oleh sektor multifinance dan banking dengan total proporsi kedua sektor tersebut mencapai 70% - 75%. Selain itu, kuartal II menjadi periode dengan jatuh tempo obligasi
multifinance terbesar tahun 2016. Sebanyak Rp8,6 triliun
obligasi multifinance akan jatuh tempo pada kuartal tersebut.
The Banking and Multi-finance sectors to remain dominant
Total maturing corporate bonds in 2016 will reach IDR50.9 trillion and mostly come from the banking sector (IDR22 trillion, or 43.3% of the total maturing corporate bonds). The multi-finance sector is ranked in second place with total maturing bonds of IDR21 trillion (40.7% of total maturing bonds). Bond issuances in 2016 are expected to be dominated by the multi-finance and banking sectors with a combined share of 70%-75%. Most of the multi-finance bonds will mature in the second quarter of 2016, reaching IDR8.6 trillion in that period.
Exhibit 15. Corporate bond issuance forecast 2016
Source: Danareksa Estimates
Sector 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Financial Company Maturing 5,029 5,357 9,277 11,470 19,539 20,943 20,952 Issuance 9,408 20,206 25,507 22,735 19,224 23,730 24,240 Issuance Percentage 45% 37% 39% 42% 40% 40% Banking Maturing 2,408 3,400 4,637 8,724 10,968 9,079 22,032 Issuance 17,260 18,481 19,975 15,988 11,712 20,279 23,028 Issuance Percentage 41% 29% 27% 25% 31% 38% Others Maturing 3,885 3,033 12,944 6,211 12,426 5,998 8,155 Issuance 12,402 6,545 23,804 19,841 15,250 18,661 13,332 Issuance Percentage 14% 34% 34% 33% 29% 22% Total Maturing 11,322 11,790 26,858 26,405 42,933 36,019 51,139 Issuance 39,070 45,232 69,286 58,564 46,186 62,670 60,600 Issuance Growth 16% 53% -15% -21% 36% -3%
Menyongsong tahun yang lebih baik
Prospek perekonomian global diproyeksi membaik selama tahun 2016 meski masih bergerak lambat. Selain itu, laju inflasi yang terkendali dapat memberikan ruang terhadap Bank Indonesia untuk menurunkan BI Rate di tahun ini. Hal tersebut diperkirakan mampu mendorong peningkatan konsumsi dan investasi sehingga pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di tahun 2016 membaik. Penurunan BI Rate juga berdampak pada penguatan harga obligasi dan berujung pada peningkatan
foreign inflow di pasar obligasi Indonesia. Dari sisi risiko,
penurunan harga minyak dunia dapat memberikan tekanan terhadap harga komoditas ekspor yang berdampak negatif pada neraca transaksi berjalan maupun APBN.
Tingkat suku bunga acuan atau BI Rate diperkirakan akan mengalami penurunan hingga 6,75% di semester pertama tahun 2016. Oleh karena itu, yield 10-tahun diperkirakan akan mencapai angka 7,28% di akhir tahun 2016. Penurunan yield diprediksi terjadi di semester I tahun 2016 dan cenderung bergerak mendatar di semester kedua. Di sisi lain, nilai tukar berpotensi mengalami perbaikan seiring dengan membaiknya kondisi perekonomian global. Selain itu, strategi front loading dan pre-funding diharapkan mampu menjaga tingkat supply obligasi Pemerintah lebih terkendali. Dengan asumsi tersebut, performa obligasi Pemerintah tahun 2016 diperkirakan mampu mencapai return sebesar 14% – 15%.
Looking forward to a better year
The prospects of the global economy are predicted to improve in 2016, although gradually. In addition, manageable inflation should create room for Bank Indonesia to lower the BI Rate this year. This should boost consumption and investment and lead to brisker economic growth. Falling interest rates will also help to strengthen bond prices and stimulate foreign inflows into the bond market. In terms of risk, the slump in global crude oil prices may put pressures on the prices of export commodities and adversely affect the current account and state budget.
The benchmark interest rate or BI Rate is expected to decline to 6.75% in the first half of 2016. Therefore, the 10 - year yield is expected to fall to 7.28% by the end of 2016. Yields are expected to decline in the first half of the year and move sideways in the second half. On the currency front, the rupiah exchange rate may have the potential to appreciate in line with the improving global economic conditions. The government’s front-loading strategy and pre-funding are expected to maintain the supply of government bonds. With these assumptions, government bonds are predicted to record a return of 14% - 15% in 2016.
Exhibit 17. Macroeconomic indicators forecast 2016
Source: Danareksa Estimates
Indikator 2013 2014 2015 2016F
Pertumbuhan PDB, % 5.78 5.02 4.8 5.4 Laju inflasi, %yoy 7.72 8.36 3.35 4.5
BI Rate, %pa 7.5 7.75 7.5 6.75
USDIDR, eop 12,171 12,388 13,788 13,200
Exhibit 16. Corporate bond issuance forecast 2016
Source : Danareksa Estimates
5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% N ov -11 Ja n-12 Ma r-12 M ay -12 Ju l-12 Se p-1 2 N ov -12 Ja n-13 Ma r-13 M ay -13 Ju l-13 Se p-1 3 N ov -13 Ja n-14 Ma r-14 M ay -14 Ju l-14 Se p-1 4 N ov -14 Ja n-15 Ma r-15 M ay -15 Ju l-15 Se p-1 5 N ov -15 Ja n-16 Ma r-16 M ay -16 Ju l-16 Se p-1 6 N ov -16 Actual Forecast Indikator 2013 2014 2015 2016F
FIXED INCOME TEAM
Director of Debt Capital Market
Budi Susanto
budisusanto@danareksa.com ext. 3200
DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Telp No. +62-21-29555777
Fax No. +62-21-3501709
Head of Debt Research
Yudistira Slamet
yudistiras@danareksa.com ext. 3400
Credit Analyst Market Analyst
Amir A. Dalimunthe Rifki Rizal
amirda@danareksa.com ext. 3405 rifkir@danareksa.com ext. 3404 Ayesha Ardelia
ayesha@danareksa.com ext. 3406
Production & Database Management
Melissa Hartono Eka Nuraini
melissah@danareksa.com ext. 3402 ekan@danareksa.com ext. 3407
DEBT CAPITAL MARKET TEAM
Telp No. +62-21-29555777
Fax No. +62-21-3501724/25
Head of Debt Capital Market
Breisga Nawangsidi
breisga.nawangsidi@danareksa.com ext. 3217
Debt Sales & Brokerage Debt Trading & Investment
Setyo H. Purnomo Romi Mulyadi
setyohp@danareksa.com ext. 3226 romi@danareksa.com ext. 3213
Rina Rimawati D Indra Figrachanda
rina@danareksa.com ext. 3223 indraf@danareksa.com ext. 3214 Putrika Mayadipta
putrikam@danareksa.com ext. 3215
Hernita Dwi Ariesandhy
hernitada@danareksa.com ext. 3216 Citra Isramij P.
citra.isramij@danareksa.com ext. 3228 Khalid Abdurrahman
PT Danareksa Sekuritas
1st-3rd Fl, Danareksa Building Jl. Merdeka Selatan No. 14
Jakarta, INDONESIA
Tel : (62-21) 3509888 Fax : 62 21 3501709 DISCLAIMER
The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective em-ployees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue hereof.
This document does not constitute, nor is it calculated to invite, an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any securities or financial instruments and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis for or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever.
To the extent that any securities or financial instruments or issues are discussed in this report, please note that P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents may from time to time make markets in such securities or financial instruments, hold share options, rights and/or warrants in respect thereof and may, as principal or agent, buy or sell such securities or financial instruments.
No action has been or will be taken in any country or jurisdiction that would permit a public offering of any investments referred to in this document, or possession or distribution of this document, or any other offering or publicity material relating to any company or investment mentioned in this document, in any country or jurisdiction where action for that purpose is required.
We have no responsibility to update this report in respect of events and circumstances occurring after the date of this report.
We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, actions, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a result of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or mis-statements, negligent or otherwise, in this report and any liability in respect of this report or any inaccuracy herein or omission herefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expressly disclaimed.
Accordingly, none of P.T Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents shall be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of relying on any statement or omission in any information contained in this report.
The information contained in this report is not to be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated companies and/or their employees and/or agents to enter into any agreement with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regard to the specific person who may receive this report. In considering any investment you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.
U.S. Distribution: This report is only intended for distribution in the United States to “major U.S. institutional investors” as defined by Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and may not be reproduced, transmitted and/or distributed, directly or indirectly, to any other person in the United States.
Hong Kong Distribution: This document has not been registered as a prospectus with the Registrar of Companies in Hong Kong and may not be issued or passed on in Hong Kong to any persons other than to a person whose ordinary business is to buy and sell shares or debentures.
UK Distribution : This document has not been approved as an investment advertisement in the United Kingdom pursuant to Section 57 of the Financial Services Act 1986 and may not be issued or passed on in the United Kingdom except to a person who is of a kind described in Article 11(3) of the Financial Services Act 1986 (Investment Advertisements) (Exemption) Order 1996 or is a person to whom the document may otherwise lawfully be issued or passed on. At your request, this report is being provided to you as a potential investor who is a person of a kind described in Article 11(3) of the Financial Services Act 1986 (Investment Advertisement) (Exemption) Order 1995 despite our pointing out to you that this report should not be relied upon by you. Accordingly any degree of reliance placed on this report in your decision to make any investment will be at your own risk.
Japanese Distribution: This report is not intended to serve as a solicitation in connection with any offering or secondary distribution of securities under the Securities and Exchange Law, nor does it contain any ‘investment judgment’ under the Investments Advisory Business Law.
