PT BAKRIE SUMATERA PLANTATIONS Tbk.
Public Expose
Jakarta, 13 Oktober 2008
,
This presentation contains forward looking statements Such statements are made based upon our current
1
This presentation contains forward looking statements. Such statements are made based upon our current
plans, expectations, estimates, assumptions and beliefs concerning future events impacting us and, therefore, involve a number of risks and uncertainties. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward-looking events or circumstances discussed in this
Ringkasan
Ringkasan
Pertumbuhan volume produksi mendukung kondisi operasional perusahaan
Kinerja keuangan perusahaan pada kwartal 4 2008 berpotensi melemah akibat dari penurunan tajam harga CPOKinerja keuangan perusahaan pada kwartal 4 2008 berpotensi melemah akibat dari penurunan tajam harga CPO dan pelemahan harga karet ¾ Namun, peningkatan volume produksi dan penguatan nilai tukar USD diharapkan akan mampu memitigasi dampak penurunan harga jual komoditas tersebut Laba bersih semester I 2008 perusahaan sudah melampaui angka laba bersih satu tahun penuh 2007 Tidak ada hutang yg jatuh tempo dalam jangka pendek ‐komponen terbesar hutang perusahaan adalah obligasi jangka panjang US$160m (jatuh tempo pada 2011)
Tingkat bunga hutang juga adalah ‘fixed’ sebesar 10 75% (bunga yang sangat atraktif pada saat ini) Tingkat bunga hutang juga adalah fixed sebesar 10.75% (bunga yang sangat atraktif pada saat ini)
Dampak dari penurunan harga komoditas menimbulkan sentimen yang negatif terhadap sektor perkebunan ¾ Seluruh saham sektor perkebunan mengalami penurunan yang signifikan, bukan hanya BSP
Tinjauan Keuangan 1H08
Tinjauan Keuangan 1H08
(IDR mn) new
1Q08
2Q08
1H07
1H08
QoQ∆
YoY∆
Revenue 677,815 902,586 638,029 1,580,401 33.2% 147.7% COGS 401,702 612,916 405,150 1,014,618 52.6% 150.4% Gross Profit 276,113 289,670 232,878 565,783 4.9% 143.0% gross profit margin 40.7% 32.1% 36.5% 35.8% ‐8.6% ‐0.7% EBITDA 246,768 237,733 196,321 484,501 ‐3.7% 146.8% EBITDA margin 36.4% 26.3% 30.8% 30.7% ‐10.1% ‐0.1% fi % % Net Profit 165,044 161,403 75,024 326,447 ‐2.2% 335.1% net profit margin 24.3% 17.9% 11.8% 20.7% ‐6.5% 8.9%
Revenues (IDR bn) EBITDA (IDR bn)
1,949 1 580 2,000 2,500 345 3 584.3 484.5 400 500 600 414 434 637 1,424 1,206 283 449 543 525 375 696 883 1,181 1,580 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 259.8 279.2 345.3 100 200 300 3 414 434 637 -2004 2005 2006 2007 1H08
Rubber Palm oil
0
Rasio Keuangan Perusahaan
g
(IDR mn)
1Q08
2Q08
1H07
1H08
QoQ∆
YoY∆
Total Assets 4,417,207 4,670,552 2,324,282 4,670,552 5.7% 100.9% Cash&ST Investments 769,726 745,952 184,700 745,952 ‐3.1% 303.9% Total Liabilities 1,865,840 2,044,475 1,641,540 2,044,475 9.6% 24.5% Interest bearing debts 1,532,788 1,536,402 1,348,960 1,536,402 0.2% 13.9% Total Equity 2,551,024 2,625,054 682,514 2,625,054 2.9% 284.6%
Key Financial Ratios
1Q08
2Q08
1H07
1H08 QoQ∆ YoY∆
Net Debt/Equity Ratio (X) 0.3 0.3 1.7 0.30 0.7% ‐82.3% Net Debt/Total Assets (X) 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.17 ‐2.0% ‐66.2%
EPS (IDR) 43.6 42.6 32.2 86.18 ‐2.2% 167.8%
Net gearing ratio (x)
5.27 5.0 6.0 0.26 0.88 1.06 1.31 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 -2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Profil Hutang
g
Outstanding DebtIDR USD Outstanding Balance Aug 2008 Creditor Principal Interest Maturity
BSP Bond USD 160 mn 10.75% 2011 160,000,000 RZB USD 15 mn Libor + 2.75% 2009 15,000,000 Bank Niaga IDR 6 bn 15.00% & 14.50% 2010 3,438,745,270 ‐ Total BSP 3,438,745,270 175,000,000 ARBV ‐ unconsolidated ARBV unconsolidated ARBV Bond USD 150 mn 10.875% 2012 150,000,000 Spinnaker USD 12 mn 10.800% 2012 10,900,000 Total ARBV 160,900,000
Interest Expenses
1H08 (actual)
92,220
EBITDA
1H08 (actual)
484,501
S l
i 1 08
Bond CovenantSolvency Ratio‐ 1H08
EBITDA over Interest Ratio
5.25
Bond Covenant EBITDA over Interest ratio > 2 Consolidated debt over EBITDA ratio < 3.5 5Pergerakan Harga Komoditas
Pergerakan Harga Komoditas
1,400
(USD/tonne)
International CPO Price
(USD/tonne)
International RSS Price
400 600 800 1,000 1,200 150 200 250 300 350 -200 400 -50 100ASP (IDR mn/tonne)
1Q08
2Q08
1H07
1H08
QoQ∆
YoY∆
CPO
8 28
8 76
5 21
8 56
5 8%
64 4%
CPO
8.28
8.76
5.21
8.56
5.8%
64.4%
Produksi TBS
Produksi TBS
1Q08 2Q08 1H07 1H08 YoY∆ YTD Aug 07 YTD Aug 08 YoY∆
Production Volume (tonnes) Existing Business Units 88,956 101,129 187,400 190,085 1.4% 277,201 277,855 0.2% New Business Units 15,890 20,314 19,313 36,204 87.5% 38,332 55,715 45.3% Total FFB Home Grown 104,846 121,443 206,713 226,289 9.5% 315,533 333,570 5.7% FFB ‐ ARBV 86,574 65,121 119,452 151,695 27.0% 164,502 200,860 22.1% FFB ‐ Plasma 51,955 47,637 76,043 99,593 31.0% 107,791 132,312 22.7% Total 243,375, 234,201, 402,208, 477,577, 18.7% 587,826, 666,742, 13.4%
1Q08 2Q08 1H07 1H08 YoY∆ YTD Aug 07 YTD Aug 08 YoY∆
Yield (tonnes/ha)
FFB ‐ Nucleus 14.59 15.70 19.60 15.70 ‐19.9% 22.27 16.32 ‐26.7% FFB ‐ Plasma 17.45 16.16 12.71 16.16 27.1% 13.41 16.10 20.0% Rubber 1.45 1.41 1.26 1.41 12.0% 1.18 1.38 16.8%
Pergerakan Harga Saham Sektor Perkebunan
g
g
Last Price Date CPO JAKAGRI AALI IJ UNSP IJ LSIP IJ SGRO IJ IOI MK SIME MK KLK MK KUL MK WIL SP IFAR SP GGR SP
995.0 28,0002,754.76 2,275 3,45010,650 7.75 11.90 17.40 7.95 5.39 2.42 1.06 730.00 1,466.73 13,250 730 3,550 1,750 4.42 6.60 9.75 5.75 2.73 0.82 0.37 667.50 1,489.57 12,950 710 3,550 1,690 4.20 6.60 9.60 5.50 2.53 0.77 0.33 657.50 1,489.57 12,950 710 3,550 4.101,690 6.60 9.05 5.60 2.40 0.72 0.31 1/1/2008 9/26/2008 10/2/2008 10/3/2008 , , , , 610.00 1,200.30 10,000 460 2,675 1,420 3.94 6.65 8.35 5.50 2.09 0.66 0.28 % Changing Date YTD -38.69% -56.43% -64.29% -79.78% -74.88% -58.84% -49.16% -44.12% -52.01% -30.82% -61.22% -72.73% -73.58% Day to Day -16.44% -18.17% -24.53% -36.99% -24.65% -18.86% -10.86% 0.76% -14.36% -4.35% -23.44% -19.02% -23.29% -7.22% -19.42% -22.78% -35.21% -24.65% -15.98% -3.90% 0.76% -7.73% -1.79% -12.92% -8.33% -8.20% 1/1/2008 - 10/6/2008 9/26/2008-10/6/2008 10/3/2008-10/6/2008 10/6/2008 3,000 1,400 (IDR) (USD/tonne) CPO Price – BSP Share Price
422 511 704 873 1 121 1 000 1,500 2,000 2,500 600 800 1,000 1,200 360 887 1,297 1,121 ‐ 500 1,000 ‐ 200 400 CPO Price (LHS) Share Price (RHS)
Tinjauan Industri
Prospek Harga CPO
p
g
Comparison of Edible OilsPalm Oil
1,800
(USD/tonne)
Edible Oils Price Chart 5 6 nes) 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2 3 4 du ct ion pe r H a ( ton Rapeseed Oil Soybean Oil -200 400 0 1 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Production Cost (US$/tonnes)
Pr
od
Source: Oil WOrld
– CPO merupakan minyak nabati yang paling mampu memenuhi permintaan kebutuhan minyak nabati di masa depan
CPO Price Rapeseed Price Soybean Price
Source: Internal Estimation
masa depan
• Produktivitas tertinggi namun biaya produksi terendah dibanding jenis minyak nabati lainnya – Diskon atas harga CPO dibanding harga minyak nabati lainnya tidak dapat dijustifikasi
• Anggapan bahwa konsumsi CPO tidak baik bagi kesehatan sudah berkurang • Perbedaan tarif impor antara CPO dan minyak kedelai semakin kecilPerbedaan tarif impor antara CPO dan minyak kedelai semakin kecil
Driver
Permintaan CPO
EU
Global Edible Oil Consumers 2007
70 (Kg/capita)
Per Capita Edible Oil Consumption 2007
EU 18.30% Other 39.50% 57.4 54.1 23.2 22.0 20 8 30 40 50 60 70 China 18.60% USA, 10.70% India 9.30% Brazil 3.60% 20.8 12.3 0 10 20
EU-27 USA World China Indonesia India
Source: Oil World. Source: Oil World.
Level of Inventory of Edible Oils
11
Prospek Harga Karet
Prospek Harga Karet
Produksi karet alam hanya tumbuh 2% pada 2007 sedangkan permintaan meningkat 6% Tingkat penetrasi kendaraan bermotor di China dan India masih sangat rendah
Natural Rubber Supply & Demand Natural vs Synthetic Rubber Prices
(US$/tonne) ('000 t ) 2529 2235 2314 2250 2113 1948 2256 1969 2,000 3,000 (US$/tonne) 9,500 10,000 ('000 tonnes) 1948 1873 1969 1710 0 1,000 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 NR prices-NY TSR20 SR prices-USA SBR 8,000 8,500 9,000
FY05 FY06 FY07 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07
FY05 FY06 FY07