Presentasi Tugas Akhir - KS091336

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Presentasi Tugas Akhir - KS091336

Simulasi Sistem Dinamis terhadap Analisis Faktor Pertumbuhan Industri UKM Sektor Pertanian dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap PDRB Provinsi Jawa Timur Penyusun Tugas Akhir :

Umi Salama 5207 100 084

Dosen Pembimbing :

Erma Suryani, S.T., M.T., Ph.D

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Causal Loop Diagram

Tugas Akhir – KS091336

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Base Model

• Sub-Model Agricultural Area

• Sub-Model Total Production Value

• Sub-Model Total Agricultural SME

• Sub-Model GDRP

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Agricultural Area

Tugas Akhir – KS091336

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Formulasi

• Population(t) = Population (t-1) + Birth rate-Death rate

• Birth rate = 0,77 Population*

• Death rate = 0,76 Population*

• Total housing & industrial area = ((average area per capita * population) +(average area per industry * (total agricultural SME + total non agricultural

SME)))/10000

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Formulasi

Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• Agricultural area = Regional area – (total housing &

industrial area+other area)

• Food farming area = 67,4/100 agricultural area*

• Plantation area = 25,4/100 agricultural area*

• Horticulture area = 7/100 agricultural area*

• Land fishery’s area = 0,3/100 agricultural area*

• Fishery area = land fishery’s area ocean’s area*

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Formulasi

• Average food farming area per SME = total food farming SME / food farming area

• Average plantation area per SME = total plantation SME / plantation area

• Average horticulture area per SME = total horticulture SME / horticulture area

• Average fishery area per SME = total fishery SME /

fishery area

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Total Production Value

Tugas Akhir – KS091336

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Formulasi

• Food farming production rate = average food farming area per SME average food farming prod. * total*

food farming SME

• Plantation production rate = average plantation area per SME average plantation prod. * total plantation* SME

• Horticulture rate = average horticulture area per SME

* average horticulture prod. * total horticulture SME

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Formulasi

Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• Stock farm production rate = average stock farm area per SME total stock farm SME*

• Fishery production rate = average fishery area per

SME average fishery prod. * total fishery SME*

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Total Agricultural SME

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Formulasi

Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• Credit available = credit available look up(Time)

• Credit available look up = (2000, 9.53811e+010),

(2001, 1.32586e+011), (2002, 1.84305e+011), (2003, 2.56196e+011), (2004, 3.56131e+011), (2005,

4.95048e+011), (2006, 6.88151e+011), (2007,

9.56579e+011), (2008, 1.32971e+012), (2009,

1.84839e+009), (2010, 2.5694e+012)

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Formulasi

• Food farming SME rate = (credit available + 8e+012) / 1.7e+008 0.68*

• Plantation SME rate = (credit available + 8e+012) / 1.7e+008 0.18*

• Horticulture SME rate = (credit available + 8e+012) / 1.7e+008 0.08*

• Stock farm SME rate = (credit available + 8e+012) / 1.7e+008 0.03*

• Fishery SME rate = (credit available + 8e + 012) /

1.7e+008 0.02*

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Formulasi

Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• Fishery SME rate = (credit available + 8e + 012) / 1.7e+008 0.02*

• Total agricultural SME = total fishery SME+total food

farming SME+total horticulture SME+total plantation

SME+total stock farm SME

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GDRP

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Formulasi

Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• GDRP (t) = GDRP rate - GDRP (t-1)

• GDRP rate = domestic consumption + government expenditure + investment + net export

• Net eksport = export – import

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Formulasi

• Import = import look up(Time)

• Import look up = (2000, 8.3729e+013), (2001,

9.67949e+013), (2002, 1.119e+014), (2003,

1.29361e+014), (2004, 1.49548e+014), (2005,

1.72885e+014), (2006, 1.99864e+014), (2007,

2.18447e+014), (2008, 2.44675e+014), (2009,

2.86334e+014), (2010, 3.55308e+014)

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Formulasi

Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• Investment = investment look up(Time)

• Investment look up = (2000, 5.91909e+013), (2001, 6.55092e+013), (2002, 7.2502e+013), (2003,

8.02412e+013), (2004, 8.88065e+013), (2005,

9.82861e+013), (2006, 1.08778e+014), (2007,

1.11129e+014), (2008, 1.32019e+014), (2009,

1.33837e+014), (2010, 1.61088e+014)

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Formulasi

• Government expenditure = government expenditure look up(Time)

• Government expenditure look up = (2000,

1.42682e+013), (2001, 1.64836e+013), (2002,

1.90431e+013), (2003, 2.19999e+013), (2004,

2.54159e+013), (2005, 2.93623e+013), (2006,

3.39214e+013), (2007, 3.91453e+013), (2008,

4.62649e+013), (2009, 5.39047e+013), (2010,

6.03775e+013)

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Validasi Model

Tugas Akhir – KS091336

= 0,041245

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Validasi Model

= 0,036852

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Validasi Model

Tugas Akhir – KS091336

= 0,05

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Skenario Optimis

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Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• domestic consumtion non agriculture growth rate = 0.139 domestic consumption non agriculture*

• export non agriculture growth rate = 0.163export* non agriculture

• import growth rate = 0.156import*

• government expenditure growth rate = 0.155government expenditure*

• invesment growth rate = 0.167investment*

Skenario Optimis

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• total export = total production value0.3+export non* agruculture

• total domestic consumption = total production value

* 0.63+domestic consumption non agriculture

• credit available growth rate = 0.4credit available*

Skenario Optimis

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Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• Peningkatan jumlah UKM 3%

Skenario Optimis

Time

(Year) GDRP Total Agricultural

SME 2000 169.681.004.527.616 2.118.148 2001 222.440.500.232.192 2.165.295 2002 266.616.101.142.528 2.212.832 2003 315.126.984.998.912 2.261.032 2004 368.609.897.480.192 2.310.363 2005 427.790.553.841.664 2.361.612 2006 493.521.236.656.128 2.416.124 2007 566.781.332.684.800 2.476.183 2008 648.716.021.137.408 2.545.671 2009 740.660.197.982.208 2.631.189 2010 844.181.257.846.784 2.743.958 2011 961.126.305.103.872 2.903.054 2012 1.093.695.839.404.030 3.140.906 2013 1.244.508.381.511.680 3.512.640 2014 1.416.733.885.726.720 4.111.979 2015 1.614.257.284.186.110 5.098.242

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• Peningkatan jumlah UKM 3%

Skenario Optimis

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Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• Peningkatan jumlah UKM 3%

Skenario Optimis

Time

(Year) GDRP Total Production Value Sumbangan 2000 169.681.004.527.616 55.269.367.218.176 33%

2001 222.440.500.232.192 74.696.326.381.568 34%

2002 266.616.101.142.528 94.457.730.957.312 35%

2003 315.126.984.998.912 114.564.880.400.384 36%

2004 368.609.897.480.192 135.019.167.219.712 37%

2005 427.790.553.841.664 155.835.439.251.456 36%

2006 493.521.236.656.128 177.023.670.550.528 36%

2007 566.781.332.684.800 198.607.508.602.880 35%

2008 648.716.021.137.408 220.624.182.050.816 34%

2009 740.660.197.982.208 243.140.246.110.208 33%

2010 844.181.257.846.784 266.267.034.386.432 32%

2011 961.126.305.103.872 290.199.699.456.000 30%

2012 1.093.695.839.404.030 315.238.117.277.696 29%

2013 1.244.508.381.511.680 341.877.249.277.952 27%

2014 1.416.733.885.726.720 370.917.704.204.288 26%

2015 1.614.257.284.186.110 403.521.136.492.544 25%

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• Peningkatan jumlah UKM 3%

Skenario Optimis

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Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• Peningkatan jumlah UKM 2%

Skenario Pesimis

Time

SME 2000 169.681.004.527.616 2.118.148 2001 222.440.500.232.192 2.165.295 2002 266.616.101.142.528 2.212.458 2003 315.126.984.998.912 2.259.638 2004 368.607.380.897.792 2.306.836 2005 427.778.541.355.008 2.354.052 2006 493.485.098.532.864 2.401.288 2007 566.693.688.508.416 2.448.542 2008 648.527.445.229.568 2.495.817 2009 740.284.187.017.216 2.543.112 2010 843.468.763.037.696 2.590.428 2011 959.823.252.291.584 2.637.767 2012 1.091.373.335.838.720 2.685.127 2013 1.240.448.563.675.140 2.732.511 2014 1.409.753.221.693.440 2.779.919 2015 1.602.439.279.017.980 2.827.351

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• Peningkatan jumlah UKM 2%

Skenario Pesimis

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Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• Peningkatan jumlah UKM 2%

Skenario Pesimis

Time

(Year) GDRP Total Production Value Sumbangan 2000 169.681.004.527.616 55.269.367.218.176 33%

2001 222.440.500.232.192 74.696.326.381.568 34%

2002 266.616.101.142.528 94.457.730.957.312 35%

2003 315.126.984.998.912 114.562.162.491.392 36%

2004 368.607.380.897.792 135.006.231.986.176 37%

2005 427.778.541.355.008 155.796.650.328.064 36%

2006 493.485.098.532.864 176.929.466.482.688 36%

2007 566.693.688.508.416 198.404.755.947.520 35%

2008 648.527.445.229.568 220.219.834.368.000 34%

2009 740.284.187.017.216 242.374.097.764.352 33%

2010 843.468.763.037.696 264.865.985.855.488 31%

2011 959.823.252.291.584 287.702.209.527.808 30%

2012 1.091.373.335.838.720 310.872.685.674.496 28%

2013 1.240.448.563.675.140 334.371.156.393.984 27%

2014 1.409.753.221.693.440 358.210.305.261.568 25%

2015 1.602.439.279.017.980 382.378.220.453.888 24%

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• Peningkatan jumlah UKM 2%

Skenario Pesimis

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Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• Peningkatan jumlah UKM 1%

Skenario Most Likely

Time

SME 2000 169.681.004.527.616 2.118.148 2001 222.440.500.232.192 2.165.295 2002 266.616.101.142.528 2.212.497 2003 315.126.984.998.912 2.259.760 2004 368.607.380.897.792 2.307.091 2005 427.778.541.355.008 2.354.497 2006 493.485.098.532.864 2.401.984 2007 566.693.688.508.416 2.449.561 2008 648.527.445.229.568 2.497.236 2009 740.284.187.017.216 2.545.021 2010 843.468.763.037.696 2.592.925 2011 959.823.252.291.584 2.640.961 2012 1.091.373.335.838.720 2.689.141 2013 1.240.448.563.675.140 2.737.481 2014 1.409.753.221.693.440 2.785.996 2015 1.602.439.279.017.980 2.834.703

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• Peningkatan jumlah UKM 1%

Skenario Most Likely

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Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• Peningkatan jumlah UKM 1%

Skenario Most Likely

Time

(Year) GDRP Total Production Value Sumban gan 2000 169.681.004.527.616 55.269.367.218.176 33%

2001 222.440.500.232.192 74.696.326.381.568 34%

2002 266.616.101.142.528 94.457.730.957.312 35%

2003 315.126.984.998.912 114.562.439.315.456 36%

2004 368.607.380.897.792 135.007.398.002.688 37%

2005 427.778.541.355.008 155.799.687.004.160 36%

2006 493.485.098.532.864 176.935.774.715.904 36%

2007 566.693.688.508.416 198.416.147.677.184 35%

2008 648.527.445.229.568 220.238.691.958.784 34%

2009 740.284.187.017.216 242.403.239.788.544 33%

2010 843.468.763.037.696 264.908.969.082.880 31%

2011 959.823.252.291.584 287.763.177.930.752 30%

2012 1.091.373.335.838.720 310.956.504.645.632 28%

2013 1.240.448.563.675.140 334.483.597.295.616 27%

2014 1.409.753.221.693.440 358.357.877.653.504 25%

2015 1.602.439.279.017.980 382.568.507.637.760 24%

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• Peningkatan jumlah UKM 1%

Skenario Most Likely

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Tugas Akhir – KS091336

Analisis Hasil

Scenario Type

Pertumbuhan jumlah UKM

(%)

Pertumbuhan GDRP

(%)

Pertumbuhan Nilai Produksi

(%)

Rata-Rata Sumbangan

GDRP (%) Skenario

Optimistis

3 16,3 14,40 32

Skenario Most Likely

2 16,2 14,02 32

Skenario Pesimistis

1 16,2 14,01 32

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• Sistem ini dapat meramalkan kontribusi pertumbuhan UKM

terhadap nilai PDRB di masa mendatang karna setelah dilakukan uji verifikasi hasil, dengan perhitungan perbandingan rata-rata dan

perbandingan standard deviasi, simulasi base model tersebut

memiliki hasil < 5% untuk perbandingan rata-rata dan < 30 % untuk perbandingan standard deviasi.

• Dalam melakukan perkiraan nilai kontribusi UKM sektor pertanian terhadap nilai PDRB di masa mendatang, diketahui bahwa

pertumbuhan UKM sangatlah dipengaruhi oleh luas area tanam dan produktivitas panen serta kredit yang disediakan oleh pemerintah.

Selain itu, pertumbuhan UKM sektor pertanian memberikan kontribusi yang besar terhadap nilai PDRB dengan kontribusi sebesar rata-rata 32% dari total seluruh nilai PDRB.

Kesimpulan

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Tugas Akhir – KS091336

• Dilihat dari hasil simulasi, menunjukkan bahwa tingkat kontribusi UKM sektor pertanian terhadap PDRB akan terus menurun. Hal ini disebabkan pertumbuhan jumlah UKM akan mengurangi luas area tanam sehingga

menurangi produktivitas UKM sektor pertanian.

• Berdasarkan hasil simulasi skenario (optimis, pesimis, most likely), peningkatan jumlah UKM juga akan

meningkatkan nilai produksi UKM pertanian yang akhirnya akan meningkatkan nilai PDRB. Peningkatan yang terjadi tidak terlalu signifikan sebesar 0,1% hingga 4%.

Presentasi Tugas Akhir - KS091336