LAPORAN QUICK COUNT PEMILU LEGISLATIF

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LAPORAN QUI CK COUNT

PEMI LU LEGI SLATI F

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METODOLOGI

• Quick Count dilakukan dengan m em ilih sebanyak 2.100 TPS yang

t ersebar secara proporsional di set iap Propinsi diseluruh

I ndonesia. Sam pel TPS dipilih dengan m enggunakan m et ode

Kom binasi St rat ified- Clust er Random Sam pling.

• Diperkirakan t oleransi kesalahan ( m argin of error) pada Quick

Count sekit ar + / - 0.9% pada t ingkat kepercayaan 99% .

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DI STRI BUSI SAMPEL

NAD 10,271 1.98% 42 2.00% 42 100.00%

SUMUT 28,975 5.58% 117 5.57% 117 100.00%

SUMBAR 13,405 2.58% 54 2.57% 54 100.00%

RI AU 11,380 2.19% 46 2.19% 46 100.00%

JAMBI 7,397 1.43% 30 1.43% 30 100.00%

SUMSEL 16,286 3.14% 66 3.14% 66 100.00%

BENGKULU 4,014 0.77% 16 0.76% 16 100.00%

LAMPUNG 14,786 2.85% 60 2.86% 60 100.00%

BABEL 2,511 0.48% 10 0.48% 10 100.00%

KEPRI 3,247 0.63% 13 0.62% 13 100.00%

DKI 16,982 3.27% 69 3.29% 69 100.00%

JABAR 83,344 16.06% 338 16.10% 338 100.00%

JATENG 88,960 17.14% 361 17.19% 361 100.00%

DI Y 8,160 1.57% 33 1.57% 33 100.00%

JATI M 80,040 15.42% 324 15.43% 324 100.00%

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DI STRI BUSI SAMPEL

BALI 8,167 1.57% 33 1.57% 33 100.00%

NTB 9,882 1.90% 40 1.90% 40 100.00%

NTT 12,488 2.41% 51 2.43% 47 92.16%

KALBAR 10,777 2.08% 44 2.10% 44 100.00%

KALTENG 5,037 0.97% 20 0.95% 20 100.00%

KALSEL 8,237 1.59% 33 1.57% 33 100.00%

KALTI M 7,468 1.44% 30 1.43% 30 100.00%

SULUT 4,967 0.96% 20 0.95% 20 100.00%

SULTENG 5,344 1.03% 22 1.05% 22 100.00%

SULSEL 15,623 3.01% 63 3.00% 63 100.00%

SULTRA 4,793 0.92% 19 0.90% 19 100.00%

GORONTALO 2,229 0.43% 9 0.43% 9 100.00%

SULBAR 2,567 0.49% 10 0.48% 10 100.00%

MALUKU 3,490 0.67% 14 0.67% 14 100.00%

MALUKU UTARA 2,062 0.40% 8 0.38% 8 100.00%

PAPUA 6,748 1.30% 27 1.29% 23 85.19%

I RJABAR 2,071 0.40% 8 0.38% 8 100.00%

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RESPON RATE

• Dari sam pel aw al Quick Count sebanyak 2.100, TPS yang berhasil

diam at i sekit ar 2.092 ( 99.6% ) .

• TPS yang t idak berhasil diam at i yait u em pat ( 4) TPS berasal dari

Kabupat en Flores Tim ur dan Kabupat en Lem bat a. Di kedua

Kabupat en di Provinsi NTT t ersebut dit unda pem ungut an suaranya

hingga t anggal 14 April 2009 karena hari besar keagam aan.

• Sem ent ara em pat ( 4) TPS lainnya berasal dari Provinsi Papua.

Dua TPS t idak bisa dipast ikan inform asinya karena fakt or

geografis, sem ent ara dua TPS lainnya m asih t ert unda

pem ungut an suaranya karena m asih t erj adi konflik kom unal.

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PREDI KSI PEMENANG PEMI LU

Golkar t idak berbeda signifikan. Urut an keem pat , PKS ( 8% ) . Urut an selanj ut nya PAN, PPP, PKB, dan Ger indra t idak

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ZONA: PROPI NSI

* * ) PERHI TUNGAN TI DAK MENCAKUP PEMI LI H LUAR NEGERI

PROV H NR GRD PKS PAN PKB PG PPP PBB PDI P PD PKNU La inny a Pa rt isipa si NAD 3. 1% 3. 4% 5. 3% 4. 2% 2. 2% 10. 2% 5. 6% 2. 1% 3. 0% 40. 8% 1. 8% 18. 3% 83. 8%

SUMUT 4. 0% 3. 2% 6. 6% 4. 0% 1. 6% 11. 1% 5. 0% 1. 3% 9. 3% 28. 6% 0. 4% 24. 9% 65. 1%

SUMBAR 3. 9% 5. 0% 8. 5% 9. 0% 3. 8% 13. 9% 7. 6% 3. 2% 6. 1% 23. 4% 0. 0% 15. 4% 69. 2%

RI AU 3. 1% 2. 7% 6. 5% 5. 6% 5. 2% 30. 1% 6. 7% 2. 3% 4. 8% 13. 8% 1. 0% 18. 2% 69. 5%

JAMBI 6. 1% 3. 1% 5. 7% 21. 1% 1. 3% 11. 7% 2. 9% 1. 9% 7. 5% 20. 8% 0. 3% 17. 6% 74. 9%

SUMSEL 5. 1% 5. 9% 6. 5% 3. 6% 1. 4% 20. 5% 2. 7% 2. 6% 15. 0% 15. 7% 1. 7% 19. 3% 75. 3%

BENGKULU 4. 6% 3. 7% 10. 4% 5. 9% 1. 9% 13. 5% 4. 2% 1. 1% 3. 3% 17. 0% 1. 7% 32. 8% 76. 3%

LAMPUNG 4. 4% 5. 2% 9. 4% 8. 7% 3. 8% 12. 8% 2. 9% 1. 4% 11. 0% 19. 8% 1. 5% 19. 0% 74. 6%

BABEL 4. 5% 3. 0% 8. 6% 6. 7% 0. 7% 21. 6% 3. 1% 7. 5% 18. 4% 9. 4% 2. 7% 13. 7% 67. 8%

KEPRI 2. 9% 2. 8% 14. 5% 5. 2% 2. 4% 17. 5% 5. 2% 2. 1% 10. 2% 13. 8% 1. 2% 22. 2% 63. 7%

DKI 2. 2% 5. 3% 19. 9% 4. 4% 1. 4% 6. 6% 4. 2% 0. 8% 10. 1% 35. 2% 0. 5% 9. 3% 60. 5%

JABAR 3. 1% 4. 7% 11. 3% 4. 9% 3. 1% 13. 5% 6. 8% 2. 3% 15. 3% 24. 4% 0. 4% 10. 4% 72. 8%

JATENG 3. 5% 4. 9% 6. 7% 7. 1% 7. 9% 13. 1% 7. 0% 1. 0% 22. 1% 14. 4% 1. 6% 10. 6% 71. 2%

DI Y 2. 4% 7. 9% 10. 7% 12. 1% 5. 1% 14. 3% 2. 2% 0. 9% 15. 0% 16. 1% 1. 5% 11. 9% 73. 9%

JATI M 3. 4% 5. 2% 5. 5% 5. 1% 12. 5% 10. 2% 4. 5% 1. 1% 15. 6% 21. 9% 4. 2% 10. 8% 68. 6%

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ZONA: PROPI NSI

PROV H NR GRD PKS PAN PKB PG PPP PBB PDI P PD PKNU La inny a Pa rt isipa si BALI 3. 4% 2. 9% 0. 6% 0. 2% 0. 4% 13. 8% 0. 5% 0. 1% 44. 5% 20. 6% 0. 1% 12. 9% 79. 5%

NTB 4. 0% 6. 3% 8. 4% 3. 9% 1. 8% 12. 6% 3. 8% 6. 1% 5. 0% 20. 6% 1. 2% 26. 4% 74. 1%

NTT 5. 8% 4. 7% 2. 9% 2. 8% 5. 2% 16. 4% 1. 3% 0. 6% 11. 2% 16. 3% 0. 4% 32. 4% 82. 9%

KALBAR 3. 2% 2. 5% 5. 0% 7. 6% 2. 3% 13. 4% 5. 9% 2. 4% 19. 0% 13. 3% 0. 4% 24. 8% 74. 9%

KALTENG 3. 5% 4. 9% 4. 2% 4. 9% 1. 5% 17. 6% 3. 7% 1. 7% 21. 3% 13. 3% 0. 6% 23. 0% 72. 1%

KALSEL 4. 2% 3. 3% 10. 5% 5. 8% 5. 1% 17. 0% 10. 0% 2. 7% 7. 2% 14. 6% 1. 2% 18. 3% 72. 1%

KALTI M 3. 1% 4. 6% 11. 2% 3. 6% 1. 8% 16. 6% 5. 0% 1. 4% 10. 4% 17. 9% 0. 3% 24. 1% 69. 1%

SULUT 1. 9% 2. 2% 2. 7% 5. 3% 2. 1% 23. 9% 1. 4% 0. 5% 27. 4% 13. 6% 0. 0% 19. 0% 82. 9%

SULTENG 7. 6% 6. 2% 6. 9% 4. 0% 2. 7% 20. 6% 2. 5% 1. 5% 7. 1% 15. 5% 0. 6% 24. 8% 79. 5%

SULSEL 4. 6% 3. 3% 7. 2% 10. 5% 2. 0% 24. 0% 4. 0% 2. 4% 3. 6% 14. 2% 1. 0% 23. 2% 72. 8%

SULTRA 3. 0% 2. 1% 6. 4% 8. 1% 3. 0% 15. 3% 4. 5% 1. 9% 4. 9% 21. 3% 0. 5% 28. 8% 74. 6%

GORONTALO 14. 5% 1. 8% 2. 2% 4. 2% 0. 4% 31. 8% 11. 4% 8. 8% 2. 8% 13. 9% 0. 8% 7. 2% 81. 0%

SULBAR 2. 6% 2. 0% 4. 6% 13. 8% 1. 1% 17. 2% 2. 0% 3. 2% 12. 9% 13. 6% 0. 4% 26. 6% 82. 8%

MALUKU 3. 9% 2. 2% 3. 4% 2. 5% 12. 0% 13. 5% 1. 3% 0. 6% 15. 2% 11. 6% 3. 0% 30. 8% 89. 2%

MALUKU UTARA 3. 7% 4. 7% 2. 7% 6. 8% 1. 3% 12. 9% 1. 6% 4. 4% 6. 7% 11. 2% 0. 0% 43. 9% 82. 7%

PAPUA 8. 0% 1. 9% 1. 0% 1. 6% 2. 2% 15. 2% 1. 3% 0. 8% 4. 4% 14. 8% 0. 7% 48. 0% 93. 6%

I RJABAR 3. 0% 2. 3% 2. 3% 3. 6% 0. 9% 24. 5% 3. 2% 1. 7% 3. 7% 10. 9% 0. 0% 43. 8% 74. 2%

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PREDI KSI PEROLEHAN KURSI

JAW A

LUAR JAW A

I NDONESI A

JUMLAH DAPI L

39

38 7 7

Tot a l Kursi

306

254 5 6 0

Jum la h Kursi

Minim um pe r da pil

6

3

3 Jum la h Kursi

Ma ksim um pe r

da pil

10

10 1 0

Ra t a - ra t a Jum la h

kursi pe r da pil

7. 8

6. 7

7 . 3

St a nda r De v ia si

1. 3

2. 4

2 . 0

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PREDI KSI PEROLEHAN KURSI

Aplik a si Pa r lia m e n t a r y TH

WI LAYAH JAWA

Pr e dik si Pe r ole ha n Pa r t a i da la m Se la n g Ke pe r ca ya a n

9 5 % N o Pa r t a i Pct ( % )

M a r gin of Er r or

M in im u m M a k sim u m

1 DEMOKRAT 25.1% 0.9% 24.2% 26.0% 74- 80 Kursi

2 PDI P 19.2% 0.8% 18.3% 20.0% 56- 61 Kursi

3 GOLKAR 14.0% 0.7% 13.3% 14.7% 41- 45 Kursi

4 PKS 10.6% 0.7% 9.9% 11.2% 30- 34 Kursi

5 PKB 8.0% 0.6% 7.4% 8.5% 23- 26 Kursi

6 PPP 6.9% 0.5% 6.4% 7.5% 20- 23 Kursi

7 PAN 6.5% 0.5% 6.0% 7.0% 18- 21 Kursi

8 GERI NDRA 5.9% 0.5% 5.4% 6.4% 16- 20 Kursi

9 HANURA 3.8% 0.4% 3.4% 4.3% 11- 13 Kursi

TOTAL 1 0 0 .0 %

Pr e dik si Ju m la h Kur si

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PREDI KSI PEROLEHAN KURSI

Aplik a si Pa r lia m e n t a r y TH

WI LAYAH LUAR JAWA

Pr e dik si Pe r ole ha n Pa r t a i da la m Se la n g Ke pe r ca ya a n

9 5 % N o Pa r t a i Pct ( % )

M a r gin of Er r or

M in im u m M a k sim u m

1 DEMOKRAT 25.6% 1.1% 24.6% 26.7% 62- 68 Kursi

2 GOLKAR 22.7% 1.0% 21.7% 23.7% 55- 60 Kursi

3 PDI P 14.9% 0.9% 14.0% 15.7% 36- 40 Kursi

4 PKS 8.5% 0.7% 7.8% 9.2% 20- 23 Kursi

5 PAN 8.1% 0.7% 7.4% 8.7% 19- 22 Kursi

6 HANURA 6.0% 0.6% 5.5% 6.6% 14- 17 Kursi

7 PPP 5.5% 0.6% 4.9% 6.0% 13- 15 Kursi

8 GERI NDRA 5.2% 0.5% 4.6% 5.7% 12- 14 Kursi

9 PKB 3.5% 0.4% 3.1% 4.0% 8- 10 Kursi

TOTAL 1 0 0 .0 %

Pr e dik si Ju m la h Kur si

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PREDI KSI PEROLEHAN KURSI

Aplik a si Pa r lia m e n t a r y TH

NASI ONAL

N O PARTAI PRED I KSI JUM LAH KURSI D PR RI YAN G D I RAI H

1 D EM OKRAT 1 3 6 - 1 4 7 Ku r si

2 PD I P 9 2 - 1 0 1 Kur si

3 GOLKAR 9 6 - 1 0 5 Kur si

4 PKS 5 0 - 5 8 Ku r si

5 PKB 3 0 - 3 6 Ku r si

6 PPP 3 2 - 3 8 Ku r si

7 PAN 3 7 - 4 4 Ku r si

8 GERI N D RA 2 8 - 3 4 Ku r si

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KESI MPULAN

• Berdasar hasil Quick Count Lem baga Survei I ndonesia, diprediksi

Dem okrat m em peroleh suara t erbanyak ( 20.36% ) . Pada urut an

kedua, PDI P dan Golkar t idak berbeda signifikan, m asing- m asing

m em peroleh 14.06% dan 14.02% .

• Kant ong suara Dem okrat t erut am a dari w ilayah Jawa dan

Sum at era. Sem ent ara PDI P lebih t erkonsent rasi di Jawa dan

Golkar w ilayah lainnya. Nam un di basis suara Golkar, dukungan

t erhadap Dem okrat j uga t am pak sangat kuat m engim bangi, ini

t erlihat dari selisih yang t idak j auh ant ara suara Dem okrat dan

Golkar.

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