Efektivitas Program Perlindungan Sosial (PPS)

Efektivitas Program

Perlindungan Sosial (PPS)

Asep Suryahadi, Niken Kusumawardhani, Ridho Al Izzati

Outline

•

Pengantar

•

Dampak terhadap Kemiskinan dan

Ketimpangan

•

Kinerja Penargetan

•

Skenario Perluasan Cakupan dan

Penambahan Manfaat

•

Skenario Kombinasi Program

Pengantar

•

Analisis dilakukan pada empat PPS utama: BLSM,

BSM, PKH, dan Raskin

•

Data Susenas 2015 (PKH 2014)

•

Simulasi mikro menggunakan model AIDS (Almost

Ideal Demand System) (Deaton dan Muellbauer,

1980):

–

8 komoditi + tabungan

•

(1) Bahan makanan, (2) Makanan jadi, (3) Perumahan, (4) Kesehatan, (5)

Pendidikan, (6) Transportasi, (7) Pakaian, (8) Lainnya

•

MPS perdesaan: 0.3; MPS perkotaan: 0.2

–

Hasil bersifat indikatif

Mekanisme simulasi mikro



𝑌

= 𝑃𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑙𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑛 𝑟𝑢𝑚𝑎ℎ 𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑔𝑎 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑏𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑛



𝑌_𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 = 𝑃𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑙𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑛 𝑟𝑢𝑚𝑎ℎ 𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑔𝑎 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑏𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑛 𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑙𝑎ℎ 𝑑𝑖𝑘𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑖 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑎𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑚



𝐵𝑠

= 𝑀𝑎𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑎𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑚 (𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑖𝑎ℎ)



∆𝑌

= 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑢𝑏𝑎ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑙𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑛



𝑒

= 𝐸𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑛 𝑦𝑎𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑖𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑒ℎ 𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑖 𝐴𝐼𝐷𝑆



𝑊

= 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑠𝑖 𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑙𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑛 𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑢𝑘 8 𝑘𝑜𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑠 𝑏𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔



𝑌_ 𝑠𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛

=𝑃𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑒𝑙𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑛 𝑟𝑢𝑚𝑎ℎ 𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑔𝑎 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑏𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑛 𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑙𝑎ℎ 𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑚𝑏𝑎ℎ𝑘𝑎𝑛 𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑓𝑎𝑎𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑔𝑟𝑎𝑚



𝑀𝑃𝐶

= 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑖 𝑡𝑜 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒

𝑌

_{𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙}

= 𝑌 − 𝐵𝑠

(1)

𝑌𝑐 = 𝑌

_{𝑠𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛}

/ 𝐽𝑢𝑚𝑙𝑎ℎ 𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑔𝑜𝑡𝑎 𝑟𝑢𝑚𝑎ℎ 𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑔𝑎

(2)

𝑌

_{𝑠𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛}

= 1 + 𝑒 ∗ ∆𝑌

∗ W ∗ 𝑌

∆𝑌 = 𝑀𝑃𝐶 ∗ [( 𝑌 + 𝐵𝑠)/𝑌 )-1]

•

Counterfactual (tanpa Program)

Manfaat PPS relatif signifikan bagi penduduk miskin,

terutama bila sasaran program terintegrasi

5 11.1% 7.0% 5.5% 4.5% 3.8% 3.2% 2.7% 2.2% 1.7% 1.0% 5.5% 3.7% 3.0% 2.6% 2.2% _1.9% 1.7% _1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 12.6% 11.0% 9.8% 8.6% 7.8% 6.4% 5.9% 4.5% 3.3% 2.1% 1.6% 1.1% _{0.8% 0.7%} 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% _0.2% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Desil pengeluaran rumah tangga

Proporsi manfaat terhadap median pengeluaran rumah tangga

Dampak terhadap

Kemiskinan dan

Dampak PPS terhadap tingkat

kemiskinan (P0)

7 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.6% 11.5% 11.2% 11.9% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0%

BLSM

BSM

PKH

RASKIN/RASTRA

K emisk in an Baseline Counterfactual

-0.3%

-6.1%

-3.3%

-2.2%

Dampak PPS terhadap kedalaman

kemiskinan (P1)

1.90% 1.90% 1.90% 1.90% 2.00% 2.00% 1.90% 2.10% 1.80% 1.85% 1.90% 1.95% 2.00% 2.05% 2.10% 2.15%

BLSM

BSM

PKH

RASKIN/RASTRA

Tin gk at k ed alaman kemisk in an Baseline Counterfactual

-5.0%

-5.0%

0

-9.5%

Dampak PPS terhadap keparahan

kemiskinan (P2)

9 0.53% 0.53% 0.53% 0.53% 0.57% 0.55% 0.53% 0.59% 0.40% 0.45% 0.50% 0.55% 0.60% 0.65% 0.70% BLSM BSM PKH RASKIN/RASTRA K ep ar ah an kemisk in an Baseline Counterfactual

-7.0

%

-3.6

%

₀

-10.2

%

Dampak PPS terhadap ketimpangan

(Rasio Gini)

0.407 0.407 0.407 0.407 0.408 0.408 0.407 0.410 0.39 0.395 0.4 0.405 0.41 0.415 0.42

BLSM

BSM

PKH

RASKIN/RASTRA

G in i Baseline Counterfactual

-0.2%

_-0.2%

₀

-0.7%

Penduduk miskin memiliki kemungkinan lebih besar

untuk menerima manfaat program, tetapi

penduduk non-miskin masih memiliki kemungkinan

cukup besar untuk juga menerima manfaat program

43.4 34.5 30.0 27.4 21.9 17.3 12.8 9.1 4.7 1.3 23.2 20.0 _18.4 16.3 13.3 10.5 7.8 _5.9 2.9 _1.3 69.1 64.0 59.2 56.0 49.0 43.4 35.3 27.2 17.0 6.6 9.3 6.7 4.6 _3.8 2.5 2.1 _{1.5 0.8 0.5} 0.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 P er sen Desil

Proposi penerima manfaat program pada setiap desil pengeluaran

PKH memiliki penargetan yang paling

tajam dan Raskin yang paling mendatar

13 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 P er sen Desil

Distribusi penerima manfaat program berdasarkan desil pengeluaran

Penerima manfaat tiga program pada desil

termiskin relatif sedikit

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Persentase penerima manfaat program per desil

Skenario Perluasan

Cakupan dan

Penambahan Manfaat

Program

Skenario dampak BSLM terhadap

tingkat kemiskinan

11.2% 11.6% _11.5% 10.5% 9.8% 9.8% 11.2% 11.6% 11.4% 9.3% 8.2% _8.1% 11.2% 11.6% 11.1% 8.2% 6.8% _6.7% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

Baseline

Counterfactual Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

Pov

erty

Skenario dampak BLSM terhadap

ketimpangan

17 0.407 0.408 0.407 0.406 0.404 0.402 0.407 0.408 0.406 0.404 0.399 0.395 0.407 0.408 0.405 0.402 0.394 0.389 0.38 0.385 0.39 0.395 0.4 0.405 0.41 0.415

Baseline

Counterfactual

Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

Gin

i

Skenario dampak BSM terhadap

tingkat kemiskinan

11.2% 11.5% 11.4% 10.9% 10.5% _10.4% 11.2% 11.5% 11.4% 10.8% 10.3% 10.3% 11.2% 11.5% 11.4% 10.7% 10.2% _10.1% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

Baseline

Counterfactual Percentile 5

Percentile 10 Percentile 25 Percentile 40

Pov

erty

Skenario dampak BSM terhadap

ketimpangan

19 0.407 0.408 0.407 0.407 0.405 0.404 0.407 0.408 0.407 0.407 0.405 0.404 0.407 0.408 0.407 0.407 0.405 0.403 0.38 0.385 0.39 0.395 0.4 0.405 0.41 0.415

Baseline

Counterfactual

Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

G

ini

Skenario dampak PKH terhadap tingkat

kemiskinan

11.2% 11.2% 10.9% 9.2% 7.6% _7.4% 11.2% 11.2% 9.9% 7.0% 4.9% 4.6% 11.2% 11.2% 8.9% 5.5% 3.2% 2.9% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

Baseline

Counterfactual

Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

Pov

erty

Skenario dampak PKH terhadap

ketimpangan

21 0.407 0.407 0.405 0.404 0.400 0.397 0.407 0.407 0.401 0.397 0.394 0.388 0.407 0.407 0.399 0.394 0.388 0.380 0.380 0.385 0.390 0.395 0.400 0.405 0.410 0.415

Baseline

Counterfactual

Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

Gini

Skenario dampak Raskin terhadap

tingkat kemiskinan

11.2% 11.9% _11.9% 10.9% 10.0% _10.0% 11.2% 11.9% _11.8% 9.7% 8.4% _8.3% 11.2% 11.9% 11.5% 8.6% 6.9% _6.8% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

Baseline

Counterfactual

Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

Pov

erty

Skenario dampak Raskin terhadap

ketimpangan

23 0.407 0.410 0.409 0.408 0.405 0.403 0.407 0.410 0.408 0.406 0.400 0.396 0.407 0.410 0.407 0.404 0.395 0.389 0.380 0.385 0.390 0.395 0.400 0.405 0.410 0.415

Baseline

Counterfactual

Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

Gin

i

Skenario Kombinasi

Program

Skenario dampak BLSM & BSM

terhadap tingkat kemiskinan

25 11.20% 11.66% _11.51% 9.91% 8.91% _8.81% 11.20% 11.66% 11.12% 8.15% 6.64% _6.50% 11.20% 11.66% 10.25% 6.60% 4.80% _4.60% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00%

Baseline

Counterfactual

Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

Pov

erty

Skenario dampak BLSM & BSM

terhadap ketimpangan

0.407 0.409 0.407 0.405 0.401 0.398 0.407 0.409 0.405 0.402 0.394 0.388 0.407 0.409 0.404 0.399 0.387 0.379 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.4 0.41 0.42

Baseline

Counterfactual

Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

Gini

Skenario dampak BLSM & Raskin

terhadap kemiskinan

27 11.20% 12.31% 11.37% 9.68% 8.39% _8.27% 11.20% 12.33% 10.56% 7.55% 5.75% _5.56% 11.20% 12.33% 9.44% 5.95% 3.91% 3.67% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00%

Baseline

Counterfactual

Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

Pov

erty

Skenario dampak BLSM & Raskin

terhadap ketimpangan

0.407 0.411 0.406 0.406 0.4 0.396 0.407 0.411 0.404 0.402 0.391 0.383 0.407 0.411 0.403 0.398 0.382 0.371 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.4 0.41 0.42

Baseline

Counterfactual

Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

Gini

Skenario dampak BSM & Raskin

terhadap tingkat kemiskinan

29 11.20% 12.21% 11.20% 9.96% 8.41% _8.25% 11.20% 12.21% 10.22% 7.70% 5.58% _5.36% 11.20% 12.21% 9.43% 5.95% 3.91% 3.67% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00%

Baseline

Counterfactual

Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

Pov

erty

Skenario dampak BSM & Raskin

terhadap ketimpangan

0.407 0.411 0.406 0.406 0.401 0.396 0.407 0.411 0.404 0.402 0.391 0.382 0.407 0.411 0.403 0.398 0.382 0.371 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.4 0.41 0.42

Baseline

Counterfactual

Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

Gini

Skenario dampak BSLM & BSM &

RASKIN terhadap tingkat kemiskinan

31 11.20% 12.59% 11.53% 9.99% 8.07% _7.89% 11.20% 12.59% 10.23% 7.43% 4.94% 4.67% 11.20% 12.59% 8.84% 5.58% 2.87% 2.57% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00%

Baseline

Counterfactual Percentile 5

Percentile 10 Percentile 25 Percentile 40

Po

ver

ty

Skenario dampak BLSM & BSM &

Raskin terhadap ketimpangan

0.407 0.412 0.407 0.407 0.4 0.395 0.407 0.412 0.404 0.402 0.388 0.378 0.407 0.412 0.402 0.397 0.378 0.363 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0.4 0.41 0.42

Baseline

Counterfactual

Percentile 5

Percentile 10

Percentile 25

Percentile 40

Gini

Kesimpulan

•

PPS cukup efektif dalam mengurangi kemiskinan,

tetapi tidak efektif dalam mengurangi ketimpangan

•

Upaya-upaya yang dapat dilakukan untuk

meningkatkan efektifitas PPS adalah:

–

Meningkatkan keakuratan penargetan

–

Memperluas cakupan

–

Memperbesar manfaat

Caveat

•

Jangka sangat pendek

•

Dampak langsung dari manfaat program

•

Statis

•

Tidak mencakup indikator non-moneter