Fixed Income Daily Notes

Loading....

Loading....

Loading....

Loading....

Loading....

Teks penuh

(1)

Fixed Income Daily Notes

moved varied, indicated by 10-years UK gilt which rose to 1.59 and 10-years German Bunds, which fell flat at 0.47%.

 Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada Senin, 01 Oktober ditutup naik ke level 3,09% akibat pindahnya investor ke pasar saham yang didorong oleh meredanya tensi perang dagang AS-Kanada. Pada pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global ditutup bervariasi, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt yang naik ke level 1,59%, sementara yield 10 tahun German Bunds ditutup datar di level 0,47%

Domestic Market Update

 Government will issue IDR 4 trillion of Islamic government securities (SBSN) or Sukuk today, October 02. There are 6 auctioned SBSN with its following predicted yield; SPN-S 03042019 (5.35% - 5.53%), SPN-S 03072019 (5.50% - 5.68%), PBS019 (New Issuance), PBS016 (7.73% - 7.82%), PBS012 (8.83% - 8.91%), dan PBS015 (9.19% - 9.28%). Predicted incoming bids are IDR 8 -12 trillion mengadakan lelang Surat Berharga Syariah Negara (SBSN) atau Sukuk dengan target Rp 4 triliun. Adapun seri SBSN yang akan dilelang dengan perkiraan yieldnya ialah SPN-S 03042019 (5,35% - 5,53%), SPN-S 03072019 (5,50% - 5,68%), PBS019 (New Issuance), PBS016 (7,73% - 7,82%), PBS012 (8,83% - 8,91%), dan PBS015 (9,19% - 9,28%). Perkiraan penawaran yang masuk adalah Rp 8-12 triliun.

 Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah yang didorong oleh meningkatnya yield AS. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.908 – Rp15.020, sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,97% - 8,07%.

6.00

Maturities (Year) 1-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month)

(2)

Volume Volume

(IDR bn) (IDR bn)

FR0063 91.26 7.92 3198 BNGA02ACN4 idAAA 100.00 7.50 304 FR0064 87.76 7.97 1788 BFIN04BCN1 AA-(idn) 100.14 7.41 120 FR0070 101.42 6.84 1669 GNSMII01ACN1 idAAA 100.06 7.53 86 FR0077 101.10 7.88 1428 FIFA03ACN3 idAAA 98.75 5.77 60 FR0075 90.50 8.50 1302 BEXI02BCN7 idAAA 100.80 7.23 50 FR0056 101.20 8.17 1129 BAFI02A idAA 98.95 5.29 32 FR0078 102.95 7.00 1100 MLJK01C idAAA(sf) 97.57 6.78 30 SPN12190411 96.87 6.05 744 PPLN02CCN2 idAAA 94.47 6.94 23 FR0065 86.50 8.23 619 ASDF03BCN2 AAA(idn) 99.70 8.25 20 FR0031 106.55 7.59 610 SIISAT01CCN2 idAAA(sy) 101.60 9.05 20 Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 1-Oct Indonesia (JCI) 5945 -31.95 -0.53% -6.47% 1-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) 1792 -0.69 -0.04% -0.24% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield

Thailand (SET) 1760 4.06 0.23% 0.39% Fed Fund Rate 2.25 2.00 2.00 2.00 Singapore (STI) 3255 -1.59 -0.05% -4.3% 2-Year 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49 Hang Seng 27789 0.00 0.00% -7.1% 5-Year 2.73 2.72 2.72 2.76 Nikkei 225 24246 125.72 0.52% 6.50% 10-Year 3.09 3.06 3.09 2.86 Shanghai 2821 0.00 0.00% -14.69% 30-Year 2.95 2.96 2.97 3.07 Dow Jones (DJIA) 26651 192.90 0.73% 7.82% 10-Year Government Bond Yield

London (FTSE 100) 7496 -14.53 -0.19% -2.50% UK 1.59 1.57 1.61 1.40 DAX 12339 92.30 0.75% -4.5% Germany 0.47 0.47 0.51 0.33

France 0.82 0.80 0.83 0.69

FX Rate 1-Oct China 3.62 3.62 3.68 3.59

1-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.11 USD/IDR 14,964 14,901 14,925 Korea 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 GBP/USD 1.304 1.303 1.312 Thailand 2.84 2.81 2.85 2.73 USD/JPY 113.9 113.7 112.8 Malaysia 4.07 4.06 4.09 4.05 USD/SGD 1.372 1.367 1.366 Singapore 2.52 2.49 2.55 2.38 USD/THB 32.28 32.33 32.43 Indonesia USD Bond Yield

USD/MYR 4.140 4.139 4.134 INDO-22 3.86 3.87 3.91 3.76 INDO-27 4.52 4.51 4.53 4.37

Macroeconomic Data INDO-47 5.10 5.09 5.16 4.91

Sep-18 Aug-18 Jul-18

Consumer Price Index (MoM) -0.20 -0.05 0.28 Money Market 1-Oct Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2.88 3.20 3.18 1-Oct (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) 2.82 2.90 2.87 JIBOR

BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) 5.75 5.50 5.25 O/N 5.63 5.65 5.47 5.41 Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) 117.90 118.3 1M 6.99 6.99 6.71 6.70

3M 7.35 7.35 7.13 7.13

Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR

As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M 2.23 2.23 2.18 2.08

1-Oct 58.35 128.73 208.40 3M 2.38 2.38 2.35 2.31

(-1 Day) 59.02 130.28 210.47 6M 2.60 2.60 2.57 2.53 (-1 Week) 64.26 134.15 213.97 Indonesia Interest Rates

(-1 Month) 48.93 130.62 216.14 Deposit 1M 5.95 5.98 5.91 5.87 (-1 Year) 42.11 103.69 172.26 Lending 13.2 13.5 13.2 13.0 Benchmark 1-Oct (-1 day) Change Yield FR0061 97.61 96.99 62 7.77% FR0059 93.47 92.73 74 8.06% FR0074 93.40 92.43 97 8.31% FR0072 98.35 97.63 73 8.43% Last Yield Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield

Most Active Government Bonds Last Price

Government Bond Ownership As of September 28, 2018 (in Trillion)

Holders 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 25-Sep-18 26-Sep-18 27-Sep-18 28-Sep-18

Banks 335.43 375.55 350.07 399.46 491.61 601.05 600.61 631.48 621.35

Bank Indonesia 44.44 41.63 148.91 134.25 141.83 118.94 119.67 102.72 111.39

Mutual Fund 42.50 45.79 61.60 85.66 104.00 117.02 117.05 117.73 117.78

Insurance 129.55 150.60 171.62 238.24 150.80 191.55 191.58 191.59 191.42

Foreign Investor 323.83 461.35 558.52 665.81 836.15 844.69 844.47 849.43 850.85

Pension Fund 39.47 43.30 49.83 87.28 198.06 215.43 215.36 215.66 215.71

Individual Investors 32.48 30.41 42.53 57.75 59.84 64.29 64.26 64.27 64.32

Others 47.56 61.32 78.76 104.84 117.48 133.68 133.65 133.75 133.81

(3)

Government Bonds Prices

Closing Price Data : 1-Oct-2018

Series

Maturity

TTM

Coupon

Price

YTM

Price (-1)

Price Spread (bps)

FR0069

15-Apr-19

0.54

7.875%

100.50

6.89%

100.52

-1.8

FR0036

15-Sep-19

0.96

11.500%

103.87

7.21%

103.87

0.0

FR0031

15-Nov-20

2.13

11.000%

106.66

7.53%

106.61

5.0

FR0034

15-Jun-21

2.71

12.800%

112.28

7.67%

112.16

11.9

FR0053

15-Jul-21

2.79

8.250%

101.46

7.65%

101.07

39.8

FR0061

15-May-22

3.62

7.000%

97.61

7.77%

96.99

61.7

FR0035

15-Jun-22

3.71

12.900%

114.99

8.12%

114.99

0.0

FR0043

15-Jul-22

3.79

10.250%

106.76

8.13%

106.76

0.0

FR0063

15-May-23

4.62

5.625%

91.71

7.79%

90.94

77.7

FR0046

15-Jul-23

4.79

9.500%

105.78

8.02%

105.44

33.7

FR0039

15-Aug-23

4.87

11.750%

114.88

8.00%

114.49

38.2

FR0070

15-Mar-24

5.46

8.375%

101.53

8.02%

100.49

104.2

FR0044

15-Sep-24

5.96

10.000%

108.78

8.11%

108.58

20.6

FR0040

15-Sep-25

6.96

11.000%

115.06

8.12%

114.66

40.9

FR0037

15-Sep-26

7.96

12.000%

121.33

8.29%

121.33

0.0

FR0056

15-Sep-26

7.96

8.375%

101.30

8.15%

101.17

13.3

FR0059

15-May-27

8.62

7.000%

93.47

8.06%

92.73

73.6

FR0042

15-Jul-27

8.79

10.250%

112.88

8.16%

111.75

113.6

FR0047

15-Feb-28

9.38

10.000%

110.90

8.30%

110.90

0.0

FR0064

15-May-28

9.63

6.125%

87.74

7.97%

86.92

82.1

FR0071

15-Mar-29

10.46

9.000%

104.88

8.29%

104.88

0.0

FR0052

15-Aug-30

11.88

10.500%

100.00

10.50%

115.00

-1500.0

FR0073

15-May-31

12.63

8.750%

102.56

8.42%

102.56

0.0

FR0054

15-Jul-31

12.79

9.500%

108.75

8.37%

108.75

0.0

FR0058

15-Jun-32

13.72

8.250%

99.50

8.31%

98.00

150.0

FR0074

15-Aug-32

13.88

7.500%

93.40

8.31%

92.43

97.3

FR0065

15-May-33

14.63

6.625%

86.70

8.20%

85.78

92.4

FR0068

15-Mar-34

15.46

8.375%

99.18

8.47%

99.18

0.0

FR0072

15-May-36

17.63

8.250%

98.35

8.43%

97.63

72.7

FR0045

15-May-37

18.63

9.750%

106.74

9.00%

106.732

1.1

FR0075

15-May-38

19.63

7.500%

90.95

8.45%

90.26

68.7

FR0050

15-Jul-38

19.80

10.500%

115.02

8.87%

115.02

0.0

FR0057

15-May-41

22.64

9.500%

105.90

8.89%

105.90

0.0

FR0062

15-Apr-42

23.55

6.375%

76.50

8.75%

75.02

148.0

FR0067

15-Jul-43

24.80

8.750%

98.98

8.85%

98.98

0.0

FR0076

15-May-48

29.64

7.375%

82.69

9.22%

83.46

-77.8

(4)

Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (19 - 23 Maret 2018)

Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (October 01 - October 05 2018)

Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

INDONESIA

Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection

01 Inflation Rate (MoM) Sep-18 2.88% 3.20% 3.33%

01 Inflation Rate (YoY) Sep-18 -0.20% -0.05% 0.26%

04 Consumer Confidence Sep-18 - 121.6 122.2 01 Core Inflation Rate (YoY) Sep-18 2.82% 2.90% 3.00%

05 Foreign Exchange Reserves Sep-18 - USD 117.9 billion USD 117.5 billion

GLOBAL

Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection

01 Unemployment Rate Euro Area Aug-18 8.1% 8.2% 8.2%

01 ISM Manufacturing PMI US Sep-18 59.8 61.3 59.0

03 ADP Employment Change US Sep-18 - 163 thousand 193 thousand

03 Crude Oil Inventory US Sep 28 - 2018 Week Ended, - 1.85 million barrel -0.66 million barrel

04 Initial Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Sep 29-2018 - 214 thousand 212 thousand

04 Continuing Jobless Claims US Week Ended, Sep 22-2018 - 1661 thousand 1651 thousand

05 Balance of Trade US Aug-18 - USD -50.1 billion USD -50.3 billion

05 Non-Farm Payrolls US Sep-18 - 201 thousand 195 thousand

(5)

PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS

Head Office

Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2

Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A

Jakarta 12790

DISCLAIMER

This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights

Dealing Room

Phone No

: +62 21 7995795

Fax No

: +62 21 79175965

Eva Sarah Hutabarat

eva@megasekuritas.id

Head of Debt Capital

Market

Cicih Sukaesih

cicih@megasekuritas.id

Debt Sales

Emilda Mardiyanti

emilda.mardiyanti@megasekuritas.id

Debt Sales

Ajeng Palupi P.

palupi@megasekuritas.id

Debt Sales

Qolbie Ardie

qolbie@megasekuritas.id

Economist &

Fixed Income Analyst

Siti Maulina M.

siti.maulina@megasekuritas.id Administrative

Figur

Memperbarui...

Referensi

Memperbarui...

Related subjects :