PV-GENERATION POTENTIAL
ANNEX 4: Assumptions for growth and technical upgrades
ANNEX 4: Assumptions for growth and technical upgrades
Site Growth and Technical Upgrade – Assumptions Puerto
Leguizamo
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■Growth: decreasing from 6% to 4%; 6% p.a. for the first 10 years, 4% in the following years.
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■Electricity demand: Increases from present annual ~11,000 MWh to ~30,000 MWh in year 20. Average demand increases from present 1.3 MW to 3.3 MW by end of project lifetime.
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■Technical upgrades: PV capacity can be gradually upgraded from initially 3.25 MW in the beginning to 6.75 MW in year 13. For diesel generators, 0.9 MW capacities need to installed in year 11, in addition to existent 4.2 MW, thus increasing the the net capacity to 5.1 MW.
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■Replacements: The 4.2 MW generators need to be replaced with the same capacity over the project lifetime of the generators.
Las Terrenas ■■Growth: decreasing from 7% to 2%; 7% in year 1-3; 6% in year 4-7; 5% in year 8-11;
4% in year 12-15; 3% in year 16-19 and 2% in year 20.
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■Electricity demand: Increases from present annual ~27,000 MWh to ~70,000 MWh in year 20. The average demand would increase from present 3.3 MW to 8.0 MW by end of project lifetime.
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■Technical upgrades: PV capacity can be gradually upgraded from initially 7.5 MW in the beginning to 15 MW in year 14. For diesel generators, the existing 9.5 MW capacity shall be sufficient to meet the demand for the first 7 years. The net diesel generator capacity needs to increase to 10.5 MW in year 8 and further to 11.2 MW in year 12 – sufficient to meet the demand for 20 years.
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■Replacements: in year 8, old diesel generators of 2 MW capacity need to be replaced with 3 MW capacity and in year 12, another 2.8 MW old generators need to be replaced with new 3.5 MW generators.
Bequia ■■Growth: decreasing from 3% to 2%, 3% in year 1-10; 2% in year 11-20.
■■Electricity demand: Increases from present annual 7,554 MWh to 12,482 MWh in year 20.
The average demand would increase from present 0.9 MW to 1.4 MW.
■■Technical upgrades: PV capacity can be gradually upgraded in three phases from initially 1.55 MW in the beginning to 1.7 MW in year 7 and 2 MW in year 13. For diesel generators, the existing 4.15 MW capacity shall be sufficient to meet the growing demand over 20 years.
■■Replacements: 0.9 MW old diesel generators need to be replaced with the same capacity in year 13, keeping the net installed capacity at the same level.
Site Growth and Technical Upgrade – Assumptions
Nusa Penida ■■Growth: decreasing from 8% to 4.5%, 8% in year 1-5; 6.5% in year 6-10; 4.5% in year 11-20. Plus demand shift towards daytime due to some expected economic growth from new guest houses. The demand shift forecasts two different rates of (decreasing) demand growth during day and night, which is modelled for every 30 minutes interval for each year. For day time (06:30-18:30), 8% increase in year 1-5, 7% increase in year 6-10, and 5% increase in year 11-20 is modelled. For night/early morning time (18:30 to 06:30) 8%
increase in year 1-5, 6% increase in year 6-10, and 4% increase in year 11-20 is modelled.
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■ Electricity demand: Increases from present annual ~14,000 MWh to ~42,500 MWh in year 20. The average demand would increase from present 1.7 MW to 4.8 MW.
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■ Technical upgrades: PV capacity can be gradually upgraded in three phases from initially 4 MW in the beginning to 6 MW in year 7 and 8 MW in year 14. For diesel generators, a total 4.1 MW generators are recommended to be installed in the beginning to meet the growing demand for the first 6 years. The net diesel generator capacity needs to increase to 7.1 MW in year 7 and further to 9 MW in year 12 -sufficient to meet the demand for 20 years.
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■ Replacements: In year 12, the 4.1 MW old generators, installed in the beginning, need to be replaced and upgraded with new 6 MW generators.
Busuanga ■■Growth: decreasing from 10% to 5%,10% in year 1-5; 5% in year 6-20.
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■ Electricity demand: Increases from present annual ~13,800 MWh to ~42,200 MWh in year 20. The average demand would increase from present 1.6 MW to 4.8 MW by end of project lifetime.
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■ Technical upgrades: PV capacity can be gradually upgraded in three phases from initially 3.75 MW in the beginning to 5 MW in year 7 and 7 MW in year 12. For diesel generators, a total 4.4 MW generators are recommended to be installed in the beginning to meet the growing demand for the first 6 years. The net diesel generator capacity needs to increase to 4.6 MW, 6.1 MW, 7.1 MW, 8.3 MW in year 7, 8, 13 and 14 -sufficient to meet the demand for 20 years.
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■ Replacements: 6.9 MW old generators, need to be replaced over the project life time of 20 years (48,000 operating hours per generator).
Hola ■■Growth: decreasing from 5% to 2%, 5% in year 1-9; 2% in year 10-20.
■■Electricity demand: Increases from present annual 2,460 MWh in 2013 to 4,438 MWh in year 20. The average demand would increase from present 0.3 MW to 0.5 MW by end of year 20.
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■ Technical upgrades: PV capacity can be gradually upgraded in two phases from initially 0.75 MW in the beginning to 0.95 MW in year 10. For diesel generators, 0.5 MW capacities need to installed in year 7, in addition to existent 0.8 MW, thus increasing the net capacity to 1.3 MW.
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■ Replacements: The 1.3 MW generators need to be replaced with the same capacities in year 12 and 14.
Site Growth and Technical Upgrade – Assumptions
Basse Santa Su ■■Growth: decreasing from 5.5% to 4.5%,5.5% in year 1-10; 4.5% in year 11-20. Plus demand shift towards daytime and afternoon due to availability of solar radiation.
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■Electricity demand: Increases from present annual 5,789 MWh to 11,186 MWh in year 20.
The average demand would increase from present 0.7 MW to 1.3 MW.
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■Technical upgrades: PV capacity can be gradually upgraded in three phases from initially 1.5 MW in the beginning to 1.75 MW in year 7 and 2.1 MW in year 13. For diesel generators, 0.3 MW capacities need to installed in year 7 and 13, in addition to existent 1.6 MW, thus increasing the net capacity to 1.9 MW.
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■Replacements: The 1.9 MW generators need to be replaced with the same capacity as soon as each generator’s operation exceeds 48,000 hours.
A N N E X