PV-GENERATION POTENTIAL
4. ECONOMIC VIABILITY ASSESSMENT
4.4. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
4.4.6. IMPACT OF DEMAND GROWTH
To consider demand growth, additional PV ca- pacity needs to be installed over project lifetime (see section 3.4 for details on system sizing). The lifetime of these additional modules (and other new components), however, exceeds the 20 year timeframe applied in the financial model. The
‘growth LCOEs’ do not consider electricity gener- ated after year 20, while additional costs are dis- tributed only over the output of the remaining years (until year 20).
Further, the approach for modelling growth (i.e.
the regulatory framework) was simplified in a way that no residual values of PPAs were consid- ered. Concessions are typically provided over 20 years. When installing additional components in later years, PPAs actually had to be revised (i.e. ex- tended). In the financial model, though, it was as- sumed that PPAs end after 20 years lifetime of the initial investment. To mitigate the effects, it was assumed that the generation assets can be sold at book value at the end of year 20.
Figure 51 shows that – even over the limited 20 years project lifetime – demand growth already has a positive effect on most hybrid LCOEs. For in- stance, in Las Terrenas, the relative cost advantage of hybridisation increases from 1.2% (no growth case) to 4.6% (growth case) – again ceteris paribus.
The ‘actual’ growth LCOEs (considering output of additional PV after year 20) are most likely lower than the ones shown in the graph, with an addi- tional relative cost-advantage of the hybrid.
E C O N O M I C V I A B I L I T Y A S S E S S M E N T
Figure 51: Cost advantage of hybridisation with and without growthFig. 51
2.8% 1.2% 0.3% 7.6% 1.3% -1.6% -0.7%
5.9% 4.6% 4.2% 9.8% 6.7% 0.0% 3.7%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Puerto Leguizamo Las Terenas Bequia Nusa Penida Busuanga Hola Basse Santa Su
% cost benefit
No Growth Growth
A detailed breakdown of the different sites’ LCOEs with and without demand growth is shown in figure 52.
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Fig. 52 A
0.424 0.412 0.412 0.388
0.395
0.365 0.397
0.358
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-2.8%
savings -5.9%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-1.2%
savings -4.6%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-0.3%
savings -4.2%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-7.6%
savings -9.8%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.395 0.390 0.384 0.366
0.371 0.370 0.366 0.351
PUERTO LEGUIZAMO – Colombia
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Fig. 52 A
0.424 0.412 0.412 0.388
0.395 0.365 0.397
0.358
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-2.8%
savings -5.9%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-1.2%
savings -4.6%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-0.3%
savings -4.2%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-7.6%
savings -9.8%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.395 0.390 0.384 0.366
0.371 0.370 0.366 0.351
BEQUIA – St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Fig. 52 B
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-1.3%
savings -6.7%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
+0.7%
increase -3.7%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
+1.6%
increase 0%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.364 0.359 0.362 0.337
0.505 0.513 0.489 0.489
0.379 0.382 0.376 0.362
BUSUANGA – Philippines Fig. 52 B
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-1.3%
savings -6.7%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
+0.7%
increase -3.7%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
+1.6%
increase 0%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.364 0.359 0.362 0.337
0.505 0.513 0.489 0.489
0.379 0.382 0.376 0.362
BASSE SANTA SU – Gambia
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Fig. 52 A
0.424 0.412 0.412 0.388
0.395 0.365 0.397
0.358
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-2.8%
savings -5.9%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-1.2%
savings -4.6%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-0.3%
savings -4.2%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-7.6%
savings -9.8%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.395 0.390 0.384 0.366
0.371 0.370 0.366 0.351
LAS TERRENAS – Dominican Republic
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Fig. 52 A
0.424 0.412 0.412 0.388
0.395
0.365 0.397
0.358
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-2.8%
savings -5.9%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-1.2%
savings -4.6%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-0.3%
savings -4.2%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-7.6%
savings -9.8%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.395 0.390 0.384 0.366
0.371 0.370 0.366 0.351
NUSA PENIDA – Indonesia
Fig. 52 B
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
-1.3%
savings -6.7%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
+0.7%
increase -3.7%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.000 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500
USD/kWh
Diesel Only Hybrid Diesel Only Hybrid
No Growth Growth
+1.6%
increase 0%
savings
Cost of carbon emmissions Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
0.364 0.359 0.362 0.337
0.505 0.513 0.489 0.489
0.379 0.382 0.376 0.362
HOLA – Kenya
LCOE - elements of costs
Cost of carbon emissions CAPEX
Fuel OPEX
Financing costs Figure 52: LCOEs with/without demand growth
F I N A N C I A L V I A B I L I T Y A S S E S S M E N T