PV-GENERATION POTENTIAL
4. ECONOMIC VIABILITY ASSESSMENT
4.2. LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY – BASE CASE
E C O N O M I C V I A B I L I T Y A S S E S S M E N T
The significant oil price decline towards end of 2014 (down to around 50 USD/barrel) is not re- flected in the applied forecasts. At the time of writing, no revised long-term projections were available from EIA. Only World Bank released an updated mid-term forecast in which the price is expected to reach 74 USD/barrel by 2020 and 103 USD/barrel by 2025 – i.e. in the range between EIA low- and reference scenarios.
Figures 32 and 33 show the five crude oil price forecasts and the adjustment to the site-spe- cific diesel price in Nusa Penida, and the cur- rent local diesel prices at all sites, respectively.
The current difference between local diesel price and crude oil price (2014 data) is kept sta- ble for projecting future on-site diesel prices.
Figure 32: Crude oil and local diesel price forecasts
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
adjusted USD/litre
Adjusted to local diesel price of USD 1.16/litre
(1) EIA Low (nominal) (2) World Bank (nominal) (3) EIA Reference (nominal) (4) Adjusted EIA Reference (5) EIA High (nominal)
0 50 100 150 200 250
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
USD/barrel
Crude oil price forecast
(1) EIA Low (nominal) (2) World Bank (nominal) (3) EIA Reference (nominal) (4) Adjusted EIA Reference (5) EIA High (nominal) Updated World Bank Forecast (nominal)
Fig. 32
Figure 33: Current local diesel prices and EIA reference crude oil price
1.050 0.890 0.900 1.160 0.960 1.120 1.096
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 1.30
Puerto Leguizamo
(2.75 MW) Las Terenas
(6.75 MW) Bequia
(1.5 MW) Nusa Penida
(3 MW) Busuanga
(3 MW) Hola
(0.5 MW) Basse Santa Su (1.3 MW)
USD/liter
Current Local Diesel Price Current Crude Oil Price (EIA Reference) Fig. 33
38 Costs of carbon were assumed at 50 USD/tCO2; carbon emissions depend on the efficiency degree of diesel generators; the average for existing generators at the selected sites was calculated at 0.75 tCO2/MWh diesel electricity.
39 Figure 53 presents the LCOE breakdown for a project finance structure excluding costs of carbon.
4.2. LEVELISED COST OF
0.364 0.303
0.391 0.323
0.403 0.351
0.424 0.412
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh
carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
0.340 0.285
0.372 0.304
0.376 0.330
0.395 0.390
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
0.305 0.249
0.335 0.267
0.343 0.297
0.371 0.370
0.344 0.278
0.374 0.297
0.381 0.321
0.395 0.365
Fig. 34 Teil APUERTO LEGUIZAMO – Colombia
0.364 0.303
0.391 0.323
0.403 0.351
0.424 0.412
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh
carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
0.340 0.285
0.372 0.304
0.376 0.330
0.395 0.390
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
0.305 0.249
0.335 0.267
0.343 0.297
0.371 0.370
0.344 0.278
0.374 0.297
0.381 0.321
0.395 0.365
Fig. 34 Teil A
BEQUIA – St. Vincent and the Grenadines
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
0.313 0.255
0.342 0.273
0.347 0.298
0.364 0.359
0.444 0.359
0.477 0.377
0.479 0.417
0.505 0.513
0.326 0.260
0.355 0.278
0.362 0.306
0.379 0.382
Fig. 34 Teil BBUSUANGA – Philippines
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
0.313 0.255
0.342 0.273
0.347 0.298
0.364 0.359
0.444 0.359
0.477 0.377
0.479 0.417
0.505 0.513
0.326 0.260
0.355 0.278
0.362 0.306
0.379 0.382
Fig. 34 Teil B
BASSE SANTA SU – Gambia
0.364 0.303
0.391 0.323
0.403 0.351
0.424 0.412
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh
carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
0.340 0.285
0.372 0.304
0.376 0.330
0.395 0.390
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
0.305 0.249
0.335 0.267
0.343 0.297
0.371 0.370
0.344 0.278
0.374 0.297
0.381 0.321
0.395 0.365
Fig. 34 Teil A LAS TERRENAS – Dominican Republic
0.364 0.303
0.391 0.323
0.403 0.351
0.424 0.412
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550 0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh
carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
0.340 0.285
0.372 0.304
0.376 0.330
0.395 0.390
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
0.305 0.249
0.335 0.267
0.343 0.297
0.371 0.370
0.344 0.278
0.374 0.297
0.381 0.321
0.395 0.365
Fig. 34 Teil A
NUSA PENIDA – Indonesia
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
0.000 0.050 0.100 0.150 0.200 0.250 0.300 0.350 0.400 0.450 0.500 0.550
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Cost of carbon Capex Fuel OPEX Financing Costs
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid Diesel Hybrid
USD/kWh carbon cost 5% flat financing cost project finance terms
0.313 0.255
0.342 0.273
0.347 0.298
0.364 0.359
0.444 0.359
0.477 0.377
0.479 0.417
0.505 0.513
0.326 0.260
0.355 0.278
0.362 0.306
0.379 0.382
Fig. 34 Teil B HOLA – Kenya
LCOE – elements of costs
Cost of carbon CAPEX Fuel OPEX
Financing costs Figure 34: LCOE breakdown with/without carbon and financing costs
E C O N O M I C V I A B I L I T Y A S S E S S M E N T
On the one hand, although diesel generators still represent the major share in total electricity pro- duction, hybridisation leads to significant fuel savings. The hybrid LCOE comes in much lower than the diesel LCOE if only capital expenditures (CAPEX, including PV equipment, system inte- gration, and replacement), operational expendi- tures (OPEX), and fuel costs are considered (two left bars). The reduction of fuel costs (approx. 30 percent) over-compensates the relatively higher CAPEX of the hybrid. The cost advantage of the hybrid even increases if carbon costs are taken into account (two bars second from left), which, obvi- ously, are higher for the 100 percent diesel case.40 On the other hand, due to the higher capital in- tensity, generation costs of hybrid electricity in- clude a higher portion of financing costs. The hy- brid requires longer repayment periods and thus higher interest expenses. Still, for all sites, the hybrid LCOE is lower than the diesel LCOE if the project can be financed at public sector return ex- pectations (assumed 5 percent flat; two bars sec- ond from right). Lower-than-commercial financing costs can be achieved, for instance, through bal- ance sheet finance and borrowing at concessional
terms. However, under private sector return expec- tations (assumed 15 percent on equity, 8 percent on debt), financing costs become a significant cost driver of the hybrid LCOE (two right bars), lower- ing the relative cost advantage (compared to the diesel) in five of seven cases, and even overcom- pensating the positive effect of fuel savings in Hola and Basse Santa Su. Private sector financing costs can be expected if an IPP will make the in- vestment under a project finance structure.
Figure 35 summarises the relative cost advan- tage of hybridisation. At 5 percent financing costs, generation cost savings of 12.1 to 15.8 percent can be achieved at the different sites. If the projects have to be financed on commercial (project finance) terms, only Nusa Penida could achieve relevant savings, while savings at other sites are moderate and negative, respectively. In Hola and Basse Santa Su, hybridisation would in- crease electricity generation costs – with or with- out consideration of carbon costs. These two relatively small grids are affected stronger by fix costs of hybrid system integration components, and on-site diesel prices are not sufficiently high to over-compensate this effect (see next section for the relevance of plant size and diesel prices).
Figure 35: Relative cost advantage of hybridisation
2.8% 1.2% 0.3% 7.6% 1.3% -1.6% -0.7%
12.9% 12.1% 13.3% 15.8% 14.1% 13.0% 15.4%
17.5% 18.3% 20.2% 20.5% 20.1% 21.0% 21.8%
16.7% 16.2% 18.3% 19.2% 18.6% 19.1% 20.3%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Puerto Leguizamo Las Terrenas Bequia Nusa Penida Busuanga Hola Basse Santa Su
@ project finance terms @ 5% flat financing cost including carbon cost excluding carbon & financing cost Fig. 35
40 Not all of the diesel-produced electricity can be replaced by PV, though; PV electricity can cover around 30-40 percent of the annual demand (different for each site). That means the hybrid scenario also leads to carbon emissions, but in a reduced amount (approx. 70 percent of the diesel-only case).