HEALTH CLUSTERS AND THE HEALTH EMERGENCY OPERATION CENTER (HEOC)
B. Impact Assumptions
2) Calculation and Prediction of the Economic, Governance, Population, Facilities, and Environmental Impacts of Disasters
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2) Calculation and Prediction of the Economic, Governance, Population,
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3. The calculation of the government impact is similar to the impact on health facilities.
No Government Facility Total Threatened (Unit)
Impact (Unit) Remar
Ligh k t
Moderat e
Heav y 1 Village Office
2 Sub-District Office 3 District Health Office 4 Health Office
facilities, infrastructure 5 Health Office
archives, documents 6 Educational facilities 7 Etc.
3) Scenario Preparation
A scenario is a narrative about potential future events, designed to facilitate exploration, discussion, and understanding of a particular case.
In the context of contingency planning for disasters, a scenario is a storyline developed by the team based on available resources. It describes a realistic, logical, and accountable situation that can be visualized as a series of successive events.
The purpose of scenario development is to describe a hazard for which a contingency plan will be prepared, so that the drafting team has a shared perception of the possible impacts. Scenario development is useful in several ways:
1. Increasing understanding of the risks and issues that may arise.
2. Scenario development and preparation increase critical thinking by prompting questions such as 'What if this happens?' and 'What should we do in response?'.
3. Helping to provide an overview of an event that has never occurred but could happen in the future.
4. Describing interconnectivity in a system to facilitate more systematic decision-making
5. Serving as a communication medium to facilitate an understanding of risk and how to respond.
6. Providing an overview of how resources will be allocated.
Scenarios allow for increased understanding and provide new perspectives on what might happen in the future and what should be done.
Therefore, scenario writing should be done in a participatory manner involving all drafting teams and users, including discussions with practitioners, decision makers, and academics.
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In general, scenario writing involves the following steps:
1. Identify the disaster based on the priority scale of the risk analysis.
2. Identify the level of disaster risk: light, moderate, or heavy, and choose the heaviest scenario that can still be responded to.
3. Describe the chronology of events, including the type of disaster, when it occurred, where it struck and other areas it affected, what community was affected, what the situation is, and other related information.
4. Describe the duration of the event.
5. Describe the impact assumptions, including population, health, health facility, public facility, economic, governmental, and environmental aspects. Identify other conditions that can exacerbate or mitigate the impact.
Scenario preparation follows a detailed chronology of events, such as the type of disaster, when it occurred, where it struck and other areas it affected, what community was affected, what the situation is, and other related information. The following elements should also be considered:
1. Time of incident (when). Worst-case scenarios can be developed, e.g. a disaster occurring on a holiday or early in the morning such as the Yogya earthquake of 2006, etc.
2. Duration of the disaster, e.g. how long the earthquake lasted and how long aftershocks were felt (e.g., aftershocks continue to be felt for up to a month).
3. Recurrence of events, e.g. waves of a pandemic or aftershocks.
4. Size of the affected area, whether it is a hamlet, a rural or urban village, a sub-district, a district or multiple affected areas at once.
5. Availability of evacuation routes and equipment.
6. Possible subsequent disasters, such as an earthquake causing a chemical spill that leads to a fire, a flood disaster resulting in a short circuit that endangers rescuers, or the Covid-19 pandemic contributing to an increase in incidents of sexual violence in households.
Scenario example:
The following scenario is taken from the Central Sulawesi Provincial Health Office Disaster Plan document. Based on risk analysis, the disaster priority was selected as the scenario for the 2020 contingency plan, which was the last disaster that hit Central Sulawesi in 2018. A larger impact calculation was carried out, and the scenario was arranged as follows. Understanding the scenario will support the rationality of the response that will be carried out.
Scenarios should focus on points of failure that are certain to occur to force identification of existing vulnerabilities.
On Friday, September 28, 20xx, at 18.02. WITA, there has been an earthquake with a scale of 7.4 on the Richter scale. The epicenter of the earthquake was 26 km north of Donggala and 80 km northwest of Palu City with a depth of 10 km which was followed by a tsunami that hit the west coast of Sulawesi Island, Indonesia, and liquefaction.
Chronology: time of the incident Type of disaster Disaster risk
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The earthquake shock was felt in Donggala District, Palu City, Parimo District, Sigi District, Poso District, Toli Toli District, Mamuju District, and even to Samarinda City, Balikpapan City, and Makassar. The earthquake triggered a tsunami up to a height of 5m in Palu City, and caused liquefaction at several locations, namely in the villages of Balaroa, Petob, and Jono Oge.
The earthquake caused thousands of people to panic and try to save themselves. The impact of the earthquake, tsunami and liquefaction resulted in a total of 4,402 fatalities, 2,665 deaths, 701 missing. Furthermore, a total of 172,999 IDPs were spread over more than 100 evacuation points. The earthquake also had an impact on health and government facilities, in which 9 community health centers were heavily damaged from 4 districts, 1 hospital was heavily damaged and 17 auxilliary community health centers were heavily damaged. Health workers were also affected by the disaster. Infrastructure and facilities not functioning properly, i.e. power outages, disconnected communications, and transportation equipment that cannot function properly. During the emergency response period, many disaster victims contracted diarrheal disease at the evacuation points. In response, Central Sulawesi's governor declared an Emergency Response Status for 14 days from September 28.
Chronology:
location of the incident and affected areas Impact assumptions Other information
Duration of the incident
C. Action Plan (Problem Identification, Strategic Policy, Sub-Cluster Activities, and