1
SYLLABUS
FACULTY ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS
INTERNATIONAL PROGRAM FOR ISLAMIC ECONOMICS AND FINANCE (IPIEF)
1 Name of Course / Module Forecasting for Economics and Business
2 Course Code E18466
3 Credit Value 3
4 Objective
After completing the unit, it is expected that students will understand:
Linear Regression Model
Statistics and Time Series
Tools of Forecasters
Understanding Linear Dependence
Forecasting with Moving Average (MA) Processes
Forecasting with Autoregressive (AR) Processes
Forecasting the Long Term: Deterministic and Stochastic Trends
Forecasting with a System of Equation: Vector Autoregression
5 Synopsis
Knowledge of forecasting methods is among the most demanded qualifications for professional economists and business people working in either the private or public sectors of the economy.
6 References
Textbooks:
González-Rivera,Gloria,Forecasting for Economics and Business, Pearson.
Gujarati, Damodar Basic Econometrics, MvGraw Hill Book Company.
Software: Excel, EViews
7 Lecturer Listya Endang Artiani, S.E., M.Si
8 Correspondence IPIEF Room, Postgraduate building, ground floor E-mail:[email protected]
HP : 08121536937 (WA) 9 Consultation time By appointment
10 Academic Evaluation
Task Value
Assignments 20%
Competence Test 1 20%
Competence Test 2 20%
2
Competence Test 3 20%
Competence Test 4 20%
COURSE OUTLINE
Meeting Course Material
1 Introduction of Forecasting
2 Conditional Density and Conditional Moments 3 Linear Regression Model
4 Statistics and Time Series 5 Competence Test 1 6 The Information Set
7 The Forecast Horizon and The Loss Function 8 Price Dynamic : The Cobb-Web Model
9 Model Simulation and Autocorrelative Function 10 Competence Test 2
11 The World Decomposition Theorem : The Origin of AR and MA Models 122 Forecasting with Moving Average (MA) Processes
13 Autoregressive (AR) Models 14 Seasonal Cycles
15 Competence Test 3
16 Forecasting the Long Term: Deterministic Trends 17 Forecasting the Long Term: Stochastic Trends
18 Forecasting with a System of Equation: Vector Autoregression 18 Competence Test 4
Grading System
Grading and Weight Interval (%)
A A≥80
AB 75≤AB<80
B 65≤B<75
BC 60≤BC<65
C 50≤C<60
D 35≤D<50
E <35
