Secretary Langley for many years expressed the hope that studies by the Astrophysical Observatory on the intensity of the sun's radiation would lead to long-term weather forecasts. Part of the cost of these observatory stations was borne by the Government, but a considerable part was met by grants from Mr.
SOLAR RADIATION MEASUREMENTS =
Objects and Stations
Instruments and Methods
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The Variation of the Sun's Radiation
But, although varying in detail, three agree that they show certain major unusual trends and thus show real solar variation. But, although in different details, the three stations agree that they show certain major trends in common, and thus indicate a true change of the sun.
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- Synthesis of Solar Variation
- Long-Range Predictions of Solar Variation The curves in figure 7 represent the third analysis and synthesis of
- Preparation of Weather Data
- Amplitudes of Periodicities Diminished by Smoothing
- SuN-SPOT Data
- Corrections of Solar Periods
- Full Lines Required in the Statistical Tabulations
- Berlin, Germany. Departures from Normal Temperatures
The effects caused by the influences which determine all other periodic accidental changes in temperature deviations cannot, of course, be eliminated if only one or two repetitions of the ii-monthly periodicity are considered. In part of the data, the activity of sunspots increased, while in the other part it decreased.
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28 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOL. 94 that expected for the first interval, the mean values as thus reduced
In heading 8, evidence was presented showing that the phases of the 11 months and other periodicities observed in temperature anomalies from Bismarck, N. There appears to be a prevailing tendency for the phase to be earlier with higher sunspot activity, but this is not as noticeable or frequently progressive trend than appears in the Bismarck data. In fact, the evidence seems to show that thoughts here are a small phase change to earlier dates within the cycles, when Wolf counts.
Dependence on Phase Period Counted from 1819 It was desired to present this phenomenon apart from phase changes accompanying variations of sunspot activity.
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Smoothed deviations from normal temperatures in Berlin were arranged in periodicity tables, each falling entirely within a period of 23 years, and the beginning and end of such 23-year periods always falling at a whole multiple of 23 years counted from January 1819. Due to the moderating influence of the smoothing of the 5-month referred to, the 7-month period was inconclusive and is omitted here. In the figure, the 8-month curves are corrected in phase to the more accurate period 8 months plus today, and the 11-month curves are corrected in phase to the more accurate period ii months minus 3 days.
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10 ABBOT SOLAR RADIATION AND WEATHER STUDIES 33 features would recur at successive 23-year intervals in nearly the same phases as are formed by successive complex curves. Clearly, of the various intervals, V would be the most similar to I because its phase is similar to I for all periodicities listed except for 13.6. In the preparation of Figure 15, the 12-month data were not limited to low sunspot times, as were the data for Figure 14.
In this way, abundant evidence proves the critical importance of January 1819 and several times in 23 years thereafter as determining points in the pairing of the curves to which reference has already been made.
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While the intensity of sunspot activity has an influence on the phases of the temperature periodicities, it is in that way as important as the arrival of integral multiples of the 23-year interval measured from January 1819. It is not possible to draw definitive conclusions on the validity of periods of 2 years and 3 years limited. ed to intervals of comparable sunspot activity.
INCLUDING ALL DATA
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38 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOL. 94 The little double table (table 8) extracted from table 7 emphasizes
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As the dates of appearance and disappearance of the contrasting phases in these curves 2, 5, 7, and 10 seem to be related to the periodic changes in the sun, the existence of these curves of a contradictory type does not, in my judgment, call for a reasonable doubt on the evidence of the other 70 years or their own 40 years. that 21 months is a plausible period of Earth's temperature caused by periodic solar variations. On the basis of the conclusion just expressed, I have thought it justifiable to remove one by one the mean values of the different periods, and to remove their fractions after 11^ or 2^ years at the same time, so as to eliminate them to the greatest possible degree in spite of changes both in phase and amplitude. These results can be compared with closely fitted curves for 12-month periodicity as previously calculated directly from the original data and already mentioned under 14-A.
The very large agreement in general between the two sets of curves suggests that removing the fall of the many periodicities in 2-year or 23-year parcels did not ruin the residuals for the purpose of the 12-month analysis. Remembering that the effect of such removal, which applies the actual average values over each ii|- or 23-year period to correct all monthly values within that each period, should tend in the strongest direction to make the residual curve that such removal remains, to smooth. If such a smoothed residual curve then clearly shows the newly sought periodicity, and shows it not only in approximately the same phase at many intervals during a century, but also shows the reversal of its phase at the critical dates, in the way that often occurs in earlier analyzes were noted - the combination of these regularities of behavior appears the hypothesis that the calculation is veridical, and cumulatively defends the method used in their removal.
Then seven waves appeared so definitely in mean curves for 68 months, as shown in Figure 18, that one could not entertain a question as to the realities of the 9|-month periodicity.
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RESIDUALS AFTER REMOVAL OF EVALUATED PERIODICITIES Having evaluated and removed, in Berlin temperature departures,
In both cases, groups I, III and V showed significant and almost similar periodicity ranges, while groups II and IV showed small ranges in the opposite phase. For reasons explained at length above, but by no means exhaustive of all the evidence available to us, I believe that all of the above multiple periodicities have genuine credibility and that the processes described in their evaluation and removal are defensible.
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ANALYSES BY INTERVALS NOT INTEGRALLY RELATED TO 23 YEARS The periodicities employed in the preceding discussion were selected
52 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOL. 94 of 23 years as the assumed periodicities whose validity was to be
- Other Analyses
- Conclusions Derived from Analyses of Berlin and Other Temperatures and Precipitations
- Summary of Preceding Studies and Their Guidance Toward Those Which Follow
- A Test of the 23-YEAR Hypothesis in the Precipitation OF Southern New England
- A Lake Level Test of the 23-YEAR Hypothesis By courtesy of the United States War Department, Corps of Engi-
The predominant importance of the 23-year period is as evident in these other analyzes as in the case of the Berlin temperatures. The fourteenth period is the terrestrial period, twelve months, which would certainly exist because no expression of the march of monthly mean temperature or precipitation fits satisfactorily over an interval of a century or more. Attempts to substitute another set of periodicities, unrelated to the 23-year interval, are noticeably less successful in showing continued periodic fluctuations or in revealing any striking regularities of behavior, such as those mentioned under g and h above.
We can also expect that phenomena closely dependent on the sun or the weather, such as the growth of vegetation, the number of creatures that feed on vegetation, the flow of rivers, the level of lakes, the thickness of waves, regardless of whether they are caused by the current glacial rivers or summer drying up of lakes All such phenomena may show the influence of the 23-year cycle. A test of the 23-YEAR Southern New England Precipitation Hypothesis. Lake Level Test 23-YEAR Hypothesis Courtesy of the United States War Department, Corps of Engineers Courtesy of the United States War Department, Corps of Engineers A set of level maps of the Great Lakes was obtained.
Horton, a hydraulic engineer, was kind enough to send additional data covering almost entirely the 23-year period 1835-1859.
LAKE \ 0\N T A\RM O
94 where, at least in the past few years, these severe droughts that affected where, at least in the past few years, these severe droughts that affected our northwestern central states were less severe, even absent. A fishing test of the 23-year-old hypothesis Dr. PaulBartsch, of the United States National Museum, suggested Dr. PaulBartsch, of the United States National Museum, suggested that since ocean fish live on plankton, primarily a plant product, then if the weather is regulated by the fish cycle2. Therefore, the fish population, as reflected by the annual catch, can change with 23-year cycles.
To make the data fairly comparable, I omitted the mackerel catch values from 1804 to 1816 inclusive and multiplied the recorded values from 1886 to 1931 inclusive by a factor of 3. To make my data more comparable, I omitted the years from 1804 to 1811 inclusive and multiplied the values from 1812 to 1857 inclusive with a factor of 5/3 (re-scale change at the beginning of the cycle). Even when both the phase difference of 2 years and the difference in percent amplitude of variation are allowed, as shown in Figure 27, the overall mean curves are strikingly similar.
As stated above, it will be observed that none of the northern cod mackerel curves show sufficient difference between the partial mean curves to prove definitely that the 46-year period.
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The general result seems to be that the Nile, before its regulation by British engineering, clearly showed the influence of the 23-year cycle. During the 690 years prior to 1424, the average range of the low in the 23-year cycle was about one meter. The extreme range of the original values in any of these centuries rarely exceeded 2^ meters, so a very large part of it was due to the 23-year cycle.
A test of a 23-YEAR cycle in tree-ring widths In supplements to his "Climatic Cycles and Tree Growth," Vol. In the appendices to his "Climatic Cycles and Tree Growth," Volumes I and 2, A.E. Douglass gives many tables of measurements of the widths of soft loads from many localities.
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Tables spanning 115 years show changes of tree-ring width during 23-year cycles varying between 40 and 120 percent, and with such clarity of grading, from low to high and yield, appear to be in harmony with the idea of periodicities of 23 years on which the tree growth depended. In another investigation of this topic, I kept each 23-year cycle on its own, but combined the results from five locations in southern California and Nevada. In doing so, I determined the march of four consecutive 23-year cycles from 1829 to 1920 individually, as represented by the average thickness of the rings of approximately 40 trees from five separate locations.
Reed,” he provides many pages of illustrations showing the thickness progression of glacial varves near the Connecticut and Hackensack rivers. Continuous series represent the current thickness of these varves, which are believed to be the result of annual weather responses extending in uninterrupted sequence for nearly 1,000 years. .
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A Test of the 23-YEAR Cycle in Eocene Varves and Tree Rings
Bradley, United States Geological Survey, was so good as to supply me with several sets of valva and tree-ring measurements relating to Eocene times.
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VARVE THICKNESS
A Weather Test of the 23-YEAR Hypothesis As stated under caption 9 departures from normal monthly tempera-
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As an illustration, Figures 33 and 34 present the percentage precipitation of Peoria, III, and the temperature anomalies of New York. Features that are common in consecutive 23-year periods are indicated by letters on the curves. Since the characteristics in previous cycles show considerable differences, such an average can only roughly indicate their future forms.
A year elapsed, the actual deviations of temperature and precipitation for all these stations just mentioned are calculated and smoothed by 5-month means of travel.
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Causes
Evidence has been presented which appears to show that the irradiance of the sun varies in a complex mode consisting of the sum of 12 or more periodicities, all of which are integral submultiples of 23 years. Corresponding periodicities have been detected in the weather, and several other weather periods have been found which are also integral submultiples of 23 years.
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Why should the sun, a gaseous body, emit complex pulses of radiation which are of fundamentals and 1 1 or more overtones. Why should the terrestrial responses to these pulsations show changes of phase, shape and amplitude intervals independent of the fundamental period of 23 years. As for question B, the natural hypothesis assumes that the phases and amplitudes of the solar periods themselves change from time to time at intervals related to 117 years.
Below the station names appear symbols representing the types of curves found at different intervals of 11 years. It is only implied that all curves i and 2 in a single vertical column of the same subfigure are approximately similar, although reversed, and all those represented as 3 and 4 in a single vertical column of the same subfigure are approximately similar, although reversed. For on this basis it is very likely that a radical change in the phases or amplitudes of the solar variation, or both, will occur around 1934, which is 115 years after 1819, and will greatly alter the solar variation in the following years.
1930, because it is only then that we have actual observations of the amplitudes of the periodicities, both of the solar radiation and the terrestrial temperature.
SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS COLLECTIONS VOL. 94 The result of this investigation indicates that the percentage change
SUMMARY
Phase and amplitude changes in these terrestrial periodicities occur in integral multiples of ii| years measured from January 1819. Because of the integral relationship of terrestrial periodicities to 23 years, weather stations contain features which tend to repeat themselves at intervals of 23 years. Among those examined are the level of the Nile River, the levels of the Great Lakes, the precipitation of the New South.
