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NO. lO SOLAR RADIATION

AND WEATHER

STUDIES ABBOT 6

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1 1899 1900 1901 1902 -1903 i 1904 I 1905

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SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS

COLLECTIONS _{VOL. 94}

j^O. 10 SOLAR RADIATION

AND WEATHER

STUDIES

—

ABBOT 6]

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62

SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS

COLLECTIONS VOL. 94

means computed from

theoriginal data forfourlakes. Itisunneces- sarytoinclude

Lake

Michigan,foritslevelpractically duplicatesthat of

Lake

Huron.

Some

features, asthelowlevelsof theintervals from

Fig. 26A.

—

^{Levels of Great Lakes, 23-year cycles.}

aboutthe fourthtothe tenth year, are soconspicuousas tobestriking.

Thisshowsdistinctly inallof the Lakes,butleastsoin

Lake

Superior.

It

may

be

remembered

in this connection that

much

of the drainage into

Lake

Superiorcomes

from

far tothenorthand west inCanada,

NO. 10 SOLAR RADIATION

AND WEATHER

STUDIES

—

^ABBOT 63 YEARS

3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 1921 23 1 3 5 7 9 II |3 15 17 1921 23

64 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS

COLLECTIONS VOL. 94 where,at least inthelast

few

years, theseveredroughtwhichaffected our NorthwesternCentral States

was

lesssevere,oreven absent. In thelevelsof

Lake

Ontarioseveralminorfeaturesby whichtheyearly rangeshave beendecidedly modifiedseemtobe repeated each23^years.

Thesefeatureshave been

marked

infigure 25withletters.

Itisespecially interesting, inviewof caption14-g, thatthe additional cycle for Lakes

Huron

and Erie furnished by Mr.

Horton

seems,

when

studied inconnection with those

commencing

in 1883 ^^^ i"

1929,to indicatea 46-yearcycle.

The

firstandthird,andso

much

as has elapsed hitherto of thefifth23-yearcycle inthelevelsof these

two

lakes since1837indicatea

much more

conspicuousandlong-continued lowafteraboutthefourthyearthan dothesecondand fourthcycles.

It isnotnecessarytodwell

upon

the associationwhichthese figures seemto bear to the drought in Northwest Central United States in recent years.

The

inference,ifthe46-year hypothesisissound,isob- vious,anddisquieting for theimmediate future.

20.

A Fishery Test

of

the 23-YEAR Hypothesis

Dr.PaulBartsch, of theUnitedStatesNational

Museum,

suggested to

me

that since ocean fishes live

upon

plankton, largely a vegetable product, then if the weather is governed by 23-year cycles, the fish

foodwould probably be subject to relatedchanges inits abundance.

Hence

the fish population, as reflected by the annual catch, might vary by 23-year cycles.

On my

application through the

Bureau

of Fisheries,Dr.O.E. Sette

was

good enoughtosupplyFisheryCircular 14, issued in 1933, and

Bureau

of Fisheries

Document

No. 1034, ^is- sued in 1928, which give, respectively, the catches of mackerel and codtakensince1804.

The

catch ofmackerelIread off

from

figure i

of thefirst cited document.

The

catch of cod is taken

from

table 2 of theother.

Very

great changes of scale in themackerel catch occurred after 1816andafter 1885. Inorderto

make

the datafairly comparable, I omitted values of the mackerel catch 1804^o 1816, inclusive, and I multiplied the values recorded from 1886 to 1931, inclusive, bythe factor3. Five23-yearcyclesremainedforexamination.

No

distortion of the23-yearcyclesisproduced bythealterationofscale atthe date justnoted, because ^itoccurs atthebeginning ofacycle.

As

forthecod, the catch reported

was

considerably smaller during thefirsthalf of the nineteenthcentury than since. In orderto

make

my

data

more

comparable,Iomitted the years 1804to 1811,inclusive, andmultiplied the values

from

1812 to 1857,inclusive,by the factor 5/3 ^(again

making

thechangeof scale atthebeginning of acycle).

NO. 10 SOLAR RADIATION

AND WEATHER

STUDIES

ABBOT

65

66 SMITHSONIAN MISCELLANEOUS

COLLECTIONS VOL. 94 Five23-yearcyclesremainedforexamination, but theywere based on theyear1812 for thecodinstead of 1817,which latter

was

the basal year for themackereldata.

The

results aregiven intables ii and 12 andin figure 27.

As

a 46-yearcyclehadfrequentlybeen encounteredinweatherdata, Itook a

mean

of thefirst,third,and fifth23-yearcyclesseparately

from

the

mean

of thesecond and fourth for both mackerel and cod fisheries.

As

there is littledefinitesupport for a 46-yearcycle in these curves, Ialsotookthegeneral

mean

ineachcase.

Thus

threecurves for each fisheryare givenin figure 27.

The

general

mean

range duringthe23-yearcycle for themackerel fisheryisastonishinglylarge,

from

16to

40

millions ofpounds.

For

thecodfisheryitis

from 460

to570^millionsofpounds.

The

^constitu- ent cycles, as indicated by^the curves of partial means, support the general

mean

verywell. Also

when

a difference of phaseof 2years anda differenceof percentageamplitudeof variation areboth allowed for, as

shown

in figure 27, the

two

general

mean

curves are sur- prisinglysimilar.

As

notedabove, itwillbeobservedthatneither the mackerel northe codcurves

show

sufficient dissimilarity as between the partial

mean

curves to prove definitely that a 46-year period is

superposed

upon

the 23-year period. Yetthere are

some

indications ofit,as seeninthetendencytooppositionatcertain years of thecycle, contrastedwith the generalfairagreementbetweenthepartialmeans.

Table ii.

—

^s-y<^<^'' Cycles in North Atlantic MackerelFisheries, 1817-1931.

ValuesGivenin MillionsofPounds Cycle

of cycles of cycles

6 7 41 33 18 22 20 21

7 8 37 36 6 17 22 10

14 10 42 18 9 22 14 19

16 9 38 12 9 21 II 17

15 II 33 9 12 20 10 16

24 28 29 21 24 24 24 24

20 25 36 24 24 27 25 26

26 34 ^SI 27 30 36 30 34

35 41 39 24 39 38 32 36

22 29 28 12 18 2i 21 22

26 32 29 36 15 23 34 28

32 45 42 9 18 31 27 29

31 25 20 9 9 20 17 19

43 18 35 12 12 30 15 24

S3 18 18 48 33 35 3i 34

30 29 30 21 48 36 25 32

3S 24 47 24 72 51 24 40

26 19 53 21 60 46 20 36

22 14 52 24 48 41 19 32

18 32 31 12 72 40 22 33

14 26 65 27 66 48 26 40

10 33 38 24 69 39 28 35

•These two columns are three timestheir originals,asstated inthete.xt.

NO. 10 SOLAR RADIATION

AND WEATHER

STUDIES

ABBOT

6^]

Table 12.

—

23-YcaY Cycles in North Atlantic Cod Fisheries, 1812-1^27.

Values GiveninMillionsofPounds