Wind discontinuity at 0.9 km above mean sea level from Rayalaseema to south Odisha along Coatsal Andhra Pradesh continues. Kashmir lay above Jammu & Kashmir and neighborhood at 3.1 km above mean sea level on 18 March 2021; has moved east-northeast on 19 March 2021. Last week's trough/wind break from N Interior Karnataka to SE Madhya Pradesh across interior Maharashtra at 1.5 km above mean sea level has become less marked on 18 March 2021.
A cyclonic circulation was over eastern Bangladesh and the neighborhood at 1.5 km above mean sea level on 19 March 2021; it was over Assam & Neighboring for 1.5 km above mean sea level on the 20th; it has weakened on 21 March 2021. A cyclonic circulation was over the Equatorial Indian Ocean and the adjacent Southwest Bay of Bengal off the south coast of Sri Lanka at 1.5 km above mean sea level on 19 March 2021; it lay over the southern coast of Tamilnadu. A westerly trough at 5.8 km ASL ran from southwest Rajasthan to the northeast Arabian Sea over Saurashtra and Kutch on 19 March 2021; it has become less significant on 20 March 2021.
A western disturbance as a cyclonic circulation lay over northern Pakistan and vicinity at 3.1 km above mean sea level on 20 March 2021; it lay as a cyclonic circulation over Jammu Kashmir and vicinity at 3.1 km above mean sea level on 21st; it moved away to the northeast on March 22, 2021. A cyclonic circulation lay over Coastal Karnataka & vicinity at 0.9 km above mean sea level on 22 March 2021; it marked less on 23 March 2021. A trough in low level easterlies ran from interior Tamil Nadu to North Interior Karnataka over South Interior Karnataka on 23 March 2021 at 0.9 km above mean sea level; it marked less on March 24, 2021.
A cyclonic circulation developed over Madhya Maharashtra and surrounding areas and extended up to 1.5 km above mean sea level on 24 March 2021.
Arunachal Pradesh
Gangetic West Bengal
Odisha
Jharkhand
Bihar
East Uttar Pradesh
West Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Punjab
West Rajasthan A
East Rajasthan A
West Madhya Pradesh
East Madhya Pradesh
Gujarat Region A
Saurashtra &
Konkan & Goa A
Madhya Maharashtra
Marathawada A
Vidarbha
Chhattisgarh
Telangana
Coastal Karnataka
North Interior Karnataka
South Interior Karnataka
Kerala & Mahe A
Lakshadweep A
Due to cyclonic circulation/trough over central parts of the country, light to moderate isolated/scattered rain/thundershowers occurred over Central India during the past week (18 to 24 March 2021). Under the influence of strong low-level southwesterly winds from the Bay of Bengal, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places is likely over Northeast India during March 29 to April 3, 2021. During the week, rainfall for the country as a whole will be 30% below the long period average (LPA).
For the country as a whole, the cumulative rainfall during this year's pre-monsoon season till 24 March 2021 is below the LPA by 41%. These were above normal by 3 to 5ºC over most parts of northeast India, below normal by 1 to 3ºC over northern peninsular India and near normal over the remaining parts of the country (Annex III). However, modeling skills during this period are supposed to be limited due to the spring barrier.
A fresh Western Disturbance is likely to cause scattered to fairly widespread rainfall/snowfall over Western Himalayan region with thunder/lightning over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand and thunder, lightning and hail over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit, Baltistan and Muzaffarabad during 298th March 2021. Under the influence of strong low-level south-westerly winds from the Bay of Bengal, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with thundershowers/thundershowers/lightning and heavy falls at isolated places is likely over Northeast India during March 29 to April 3, 2021. Isolated to scattered rainfall/thundershowers are most likely over Tamilnadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, Telangana, Kerala and Mahe and coastal and south interior Karnataka during most days of week 1 (Appendix IV).
Due to strong lower south-westerly winds from Bay of Bengal to northeastern states, moderate to widespread rainfall with heavy falls at isolated places is likely in this region during the first half of the week. Activity is likely to be below normal levels in northwestern India. In the remaining parts of the country the situation is likely to be below normal to normal (Appendix V).
Maximum temperatures are very likely to increase gradually by 4-6°C over NW India during the first half of week 1. A gradual increase in maximum temperatures of 3-5°C over most parts of central India and 2-4°C over most parts of eastern, western and peninsular India during the first half of week 1. No conditions are very likely over the country for the next 4-5 days heatwave except Saurashtra & Kutch and Konkan & Goa where heatwave conditions are very likely in isolated pockets during March 25-27 and over North Gujarat region during March 27-28, 2021.
During week 2, due to likely dry weather over most parts of the country (except Northeast India), the maximum temperatures are most likely to increase gradually over most parts of the country. These are likely to be below normal by 1-2°C over the northern island and adjacent central India (Annex VI). Next weekly update will be posted on next Thursday ie. subdivisions and % of the country's area.
PERCENTAGE OF DISTRIBUTION OF DISTRICTS IN PREVIOUS YEARS FROM MARCH 1 OF DISTRICTS OUTSIDE.
