The meteorological impact of climate change can be divided into two different drivers of migration. SRES - Emission Scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 6 Nicholas Stern (ed.) (2006) “The Economics of Climate changes: the Stern review”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p.
Much less time, energy, and resources, however, have been devoted to empirical analysis of the impacts of climate change on human populations. 30 Nicholas Stern (ed.) (2006) "The Economics of Climate Change: the Stern review", Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 38 Nicholas Stern (ed.) (2006) "The Economics of Climate Change: the Stern review ”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
47 USGCRP (2000) “Climate Change Impacts on the United States: Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change.
In December 2006, there were many reports of the first sinking of an inhabited island due to climate change. 81 IPCC (2007) 'Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis - A Summary for Policymakers', Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Paris, February 2007, p. 82 IPCC (2007) 'Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis - A Summary for Policymakers', Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Paris, February 2007, p.
Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at the end of the century are 850 ppm (three times the pre-industrial level).86 With higher temperatures, the practical consequences of climate change are much greater. 83 Nicholas Stern (ed.) (2006) "The Economics of Climate Change: the Stern review", Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 84 Nicholas Stern (ed.) (2006) "The Economics of Climate Change: the Stern review ”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p.
85 IPCC (2007) “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policymakers”, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Paris, February 2007, p 86 IPCC (2007) “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policy Makers”, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Paris, February 2007, p. 87 IPCC (2007) “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis – Summary for Policy Makers", Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Paris, February 2007, p.
88 Nicholas Stern (ed.) (2006) “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p. 89 IPCC (2007) “Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Base – Summary for Policy Makers”, Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Paris, February 2007, p. 91 Nicholas Stern (ed.) (2006) “The Economics of Climate Change: The Stern Review,” Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p.
93 IPCC (2007) "Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science basis - Summary for Policy Makers", Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Paris, February 2007, p. 94 Nicholas Stern (ed.) (2006) "The Economics of Climate change: the Stern review", Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p.
4/. Development implications
The urban flood
However, rapid and unplanned urbanization has serious consequences for the well-being of cities and the provision of urban services. A third of the world's urban population, approximately one billion people, already lives in slums: poor-quality housing with limited clean water, sanitation and education services.103 It is estimated that by 2030, this number will grow to 1.7 billion people.104 High population density and high levels of contact contribute to the spread of disease, while health and education services are often inadequate. In India, for example, unplanned urbanization is associated with the spread of dengue fever.105.
Hollowed economies
Increasing food and water scarcity due to climate change in rural areas will accelerate the dramatic rural-urban shift in developing countries. Urban areas provide access to the cash economy (rather than subsistence agriculture) and can facilitate the provision of services. In the context of poor governance, poverty and easy access to small arms, these situations can easily turn violent.
As the desert advances, farmers and herders are forced to move, either to push into the shrinking habitable area or forced into the already overpopulated cities.108 There is also a fairly widely accepted belief that the current crisis in Darfur it originated in the prolonged drought that brought shepherds into competition with farmers.109. Large population movements are already recognized by the UN Security Council as a potential threat to international peace and security, especially if there are existing ethnic and social tensions.110 According to John Ashton, the UK's climate change envoy, "Mass migrations, especially in the arid or semi-arid areas in which more than a third of the world's people live will turn fragile states into failed states and increase the pressure on regional neighbors – a dynamic that is already visible in Africa”.111.
Health impacts and welfare of forced migrants
5/. Policy Responses
Expanding the definition of a ‘refugee’
26 law would bring the existing weight of international law and precedent to bear on the issue – and.
Adaptation in affected countries
Immigration policy in less affected countries
It has been widely reported that New Zealand has agreed to accept residents of the South Pacific island nation of Tuvalu if and when climate change leaves their country uninhabitable.124 However, this is an urban myth: New Zealand accepts only 75 each year residents of Tuvalu through the Pacific Access Category of the immigration service, which does not mention environmental degradation. No other country has yet been willing to set a precedent by explicitly accepting climate migrants as refugees. Swedish immigration policy mentions environmental migrants as a special category as a "person in need of protection" who cannot return to their home country due to an environmental disaster.
However, it is not yet clear to what extent this also includes the consequences of climate change. In the parliamentary text in which the category is explained, a nuclear disaster is given as an example of an 'environmental disaster', while natural disasters are not specifically mentioned.125. However, there are more and more examples of immigration concessions for victims of natural disasters – albeit on an ad hoc basis.
For example, in 2003, the US immigration service extended for another two years the Temporary Protected Status granted to 80,000 Hondurans who had fled to the United States after Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which devastated large parts of Central America .126 After the 2004 tsunami, the Swiss, Canada and Malaysia temporarily suspended involuntary returns of failed asylum seekers to the affected areas of India, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Indonesia. The European Union, for its part, proposed offering temporary asylum to child victims of the disaster in order to allow them a few months in Europe to recover from the trauma.127 Whether or not this is an evolving norm of the law of soft is very controversial. , but it shows some 'calling' at the edges of immigration policy. Relaxing immigration rules as part of a concerted policy to 'relieve population pressure' in areas affected by climate change could accelerate the brain drain of talented individuals from the developing world to developed countries - and worsen ' the frustration' of the affected economies, which is itself a driver of migration.
On the other hand, closing borders in both source and destination countries undermines remittance economies and denies developing countries the benefits of access to the international labor market. 124 Tearfund (2006), "Feeling the Heat: why governments must act to tackle the impact of climate change on global water supplies and prevent mass movement of climate change refugees", London p.10. 127 Frank Laczko & Elizabeth Collett, (2005) "Assessing the Tsuanmi's Effects on Migration", International Organization for Migration.
6/. Conclusions
Finally, rather than erecting immigration barriers, the international community needs to help create incentives to retain skilled labor in developing countries and take advantage of the benefits that fluid labor markets can provide. The international regulation of labor migration, adaptation to climate change and capacity building in vulnerable countries are inherently linked. Migration will be used by some households in vulnerable countries as a means of adapting to climate change and sea level rise.
Selected references
Southern Perspective," a two-part meeting in the AVISO Policy Briefing Series, April 13, 2000, Senegal Lonergan, Steve (1998), "The Role of Environmental Degradation in Population Displacement," Environmental Change and Security Project Report, Issue 4 (Spring 1998) : pp. McLeman, Robert & Smit, Barry (2005) “Assessing the security implications of climate change-related migration”, presentation at workshop on human security and climate change, June 21-23, 2005, Oslo Nyong, Anthony, Fiki, Charles & McLeman, Robert (2006) “Drought-Related Conflicts, Management and Resolution in the West African Sahel: Climate Change Considerations:.
Considerations for Climate Change Research' in Die Erde, vol. 2007) “Breaking the taboo on adaptation: renewed attention to climate change adaptation policies cannot come too soon” in Nature, Vol. Stern, Nicholas (ed.) (2006) “The economics of climate change: the Stern review”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Tearfund (2006) "Feeling the Heat: Why governments must act to address the impact of climate change on global water supplies and prevent the mass movement of climate change refugees", London.
United Nations University (2005) "As ranks of "Environmental Refugees" swell worldwide, calls grow for better definition, recognition, support", UN Day for Disaster Reduction, Bonn, 12 October 2005 Vidal, John (2005) "Pacific Atlantis: first climate change refugees”, The Guardian, London, 25 November 2005. The A1 storyline and scenario family describe a future world of very rapid economic growth, world population peaking at mid-century and declining thereafter, and the rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies The A1 scenario family develops into three groups that describe alternative directions of technological change in the energy system.
The B2 story and scenario family describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions for economic, social and environmental sustainability. The SRES scenarios do not include additional climate initiatives, meaning that they do not include scenarios that explicitly assume the implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or Kyoto Protocol emissions targets. 135 IPCC (2007) 'Contribution of Working Group II to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report of Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability', April 2007, p.
