PDF Soyabean Outlook - September 2023

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Soyabean Outlook September 2023

Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre, PJTSAU Page 1

Soyabean Outlook – September 2023

World scenario

World soyabean production in 2020-21 is estimated as 353.47 million tonnes from a total area of 136.82 million hectares. Brazil ranks first in soyabean production with 121.80 million tonnes followed by United States of America (112.55 million tonnes), Argentina (48.80 million tonnes), China (19.60 million tonnes) and India (11.23 million tonnes) accounting for 34, 32, 14, 6 and 3 percent of world production. India ranks fourth in area with 12.12 million hectares (29.94 million acres) accounting for 8.86% of the world area and fifth in production with 11.23 million tonnes in 2020-21.

The major soyabean growing states are Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Karnataka, and Telangana. According to the third advance estimates 2022-23, Government of India soyabean production is estimated at 149.76 lakh tonnes as compared to 129.87 lakh tonnes in 2021- 22. According to the 3^rd advance estimates, Telangana soyabean production estimate was 3.27 lakh tonnes for 2022-23 as against 2.67 lakh tonnes in 2021-22.

Table 1: Global Soyabean Supply and Demand (in million tonnes) 2020-21 2021-22

(Estimated) 2022-23

(Forecasted) 2023-24 (Projected)

Opening Stocks 54.60 55.20 45.60 53.90

Production 370.50 356.70 367.70 398.00

Imports 159.20 155.50 167.90 170.90

Total Availability 425.00 411.80 413.30 451.90

Crush 326.30 326.00 321.00 344.70

Total Consumption 369.90 366.20 359.50 388.00

Exports 159.20 155.50 167.90 170.90

Ending Stocks 55.20 45.70 53.90 63.90

Source: International Grains Council Indian scenario

Table 2: Indian Soyabean Supply and Demand (in million tonnes) 2020-21 2021-22

(Estimated)

2022-23 (Forecasted)

2023-24 (Projected)

Opening Stocks 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.30

Production 12.60 13.00 14.00 13.40

Imports 0.20 0.10 0.10 0.10

Total Availability 13.30 13.70 14.60 13.80

Crush 11.60 11.90 13.30 12.50

Total Consumption 12.70 13.10 14.30 13.40

Exports - 0.10 - 0.10

Ending Stocks 0.50 0.50 0.30 0.40

Source: International Grains Council

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Table 3: State wise area under soyabean in India

State

2022-23 2023-24

Area (lakh ha)

Area (lakh acres)

% to total area

Area (lakh ha)

Area (lakh acres)

% to total area

Madhya Pradesh 53.87 133.12 43.48 53.35 131.83 42.64

Maharashtra 48.70 120.34 39.31 50.69 125.26 40.51

Rajasthan 11.51 28.44 9.29 11.45 28.29 9.15

Karnataka 4.37 10.80 3.53 4.08 10.08 3.26

Gujarat 2.21 5.46 1.78 2.66 6.57 2.12

Telangana 1.66 4.10 1.34 1.80 4.45 1.44

Others 1.58 3.90 1.28 1.37 3.39 1.10

All India 123.90 306.16 100.00 125.40 309.20 100.00

Source: www.agricoop.gov.in

In India, as on 8^th September 2023 area under soyabean during 2023-24 was 125.40 lakh hectares as against 123.90 lakh hectares during 2022-23. Among the states, Madhya Pradesh stood first with 53.35 lakh ha followed by Maharashtra (50.69 lakh ha), Rajasthan (11.45 lakh ha), Karnataka (4.08 lakh ha), Gujarat (2.66 lakh ha) and Telangana (1.80 lakh ha).

Soyabean prices in India

Table 4: State wise Wholesale Prices Monthly Analysis for Soyabean during August, 2023

State Prices August,

2023

Prices July, 2023

Prices August, 2022

% Change (Over Previous

Month)

% Change (Over Previous

Year)

Andhra Pradesh 4199 4062 3.37 __

Chhattisgarh 4663 4638 5644 0.54 -17.38

Gujarat 4660 4665 5678 -0.11 -17.93

Karnataka 4806 4813 5933 -0.15 -19

Madhya Pradesh 4796 4787 5622 0.19 -14.69

Maharashtra 4719 4768 5868 -1.03 -19.58

Manipur 9413 9431 -0.19 __

Rajasthan 4719 4770 5741 -1.07 -17.8

Telangana 4852 4711 6114 2.99 -20.64

Uttar Pradesh 4449 4578 5245 -2.82 -15.18

Average 5021 5122.3 5730.62

Source: https://agmarknet.gov.in/

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Telangana scenario

In Telangana, as on 6^th September 2023 area under soyabean was 4,44,326 acres as against 4,29,279 acres during 2022-23. Among the districts, Nirmal stood first with 1,10,563 acres followed by Adilabad (1,08,522 acres), Kamareddy (82,613 acres), Sangareddy (78,818 acres) and Nizamabad (50,687 acres).

Table 5: District wise area under soyabean in Telangana State District

2022-23 2023-24

Area (ha)

Area (acres)

Area (ha)

Area (acres)

Nirmal 45347.93 112057 26.10 44743.33 110563 24.88

Adilabad 36085.87 89170 20.77 43917.36 108522 24.42

Kamareddy 30776.80 76051 17.72 33432.35 82613 18.59

Sangareddy 31584.14 78046 18.18 31896.56 78818 17.74

Nizamabad 23840.47 58911 13.72 20512.33 50687 11.41

Others 6088.10 15044 3.50 5310.70 13123 2.95

Total 173723.32 429279 100.00 179812.63 444326 100.00 Source: www.agri.telangana.gov.in

Table 6: Prices and Arrivals of soyabean at Nizamabad Market in the Month of August, 2023

Date Arrivals (Quintals)

Minimum Price (Rs/quintal)

Maximum Price (Rs/quintal)

Modal Price (Rs/quintal)

10 23 4,259 4,859 4,859

11 6 4,725 4,725 4,725

14 6 4,060 4,560 4,060

21 8 3,400 4,777 4,737

22 2 4,560 4,560 4,560

30 3 4,623 4,623 4,623

Source: http://tsmarketing.in/

Soyabean Price Outlook

The weekly average prices of Soybean Indore plant went marginally down by 1.48% to INR 4,938/ Qtl amid ahead of new crop arrivals. The weekly average prices of Indore soymeal remained sideways and went marginally down by 0.81% to INR 41,760/MT.

Based on the latest data released by SOPA, soybean crushing in India from October 2022 to July 2023 is estimated to increase by 32% to reach 92.5 lakh tonnes, compared to 70 lakh tonnes during the same period last year.

India is expected to have record soybean carryover stocks for the 2023-2024 oil year, starting October. This is due to higher-than-expected soybean imports during the current oil year, 2022-2023.

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The Soybean Oilseeds Processors Association of India (SOPA) expects soybean imports to be around 5.5 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) during the current oil year, compared to the earlier estimate of 2 LMT. So far, about 5 LMT of soybean have already been imported and another 50,000 tonnes is expected to be imported.

Currently, Indian Soymeal Ex-Kandla prices stood at $534/MT, Soymeal FOB Rotterdam prices trading at $491/MT and spread stands at $43/MT. Lower FOB Rotterdam soymeal prices are likely to limit Indian soymeal demand.

Under these circumstances, Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre, PJTSAU expects that Soybean may trade in price range between Rs. 4500 – 5000 per quintal in the month of September 2023.