• Tidak ada hasil yang ditemukan

برآورد تابع تقاضای سینما و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر آن مطالعۀ موردی؛ شهر تهران

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2023

Membagikan "برآورد تابع تقاضای سینما و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر آن مطالعۀ موردی؛ شهر تهران"

Copied!
29
0
0

Teks penuh

(1)

1 0 % PQ K K$ ) $' / R L S% & 0 %

1 4 4. ‡/& J

& +. +.*:425

&; / A+ ) /" B+C +2 < )

D*E )

& 5 4+ - 6 4+ )

*2<

M"$TU

&2 &* 7 2 +

T

* 0 TWF:

+F 9 57 &9$1

! F1 &2 3 f

r P%

!

0F $4 / 4$O / 2 GF $4 O J H

" ' $87$8 )%

/ P9 57 &P%

!

F% 7 & n` & 3 +

- $ /

&% T &

Z K P6F% P &P- 5 & u

T & 4$` $J [

N HI Z T " M ! U+5#7 K

[ P, UP,.

/

$@

! 9 57 ! u7 F67 /QF O J ! 0-

+ f /- P W E PW2$ J"PB

(OLS )

A $2 & 4$` 62

!

$

! /

= P S

?

$2 9 57 o2 7

! F+P Z 4

T " w$C $87

.

& 4

! ' N HI /

C7 A $2 "

+ Z

!

" ; Q P f

"P2 &P- W

7 š", ™ $1 0- ;

/ 9 57 o2 7 F1 &2

! +F P4$W $P87 $8P /

"P

T [

" 3$2 ! $++D €)1 m $9 / 7 Z

fP u7 / P, 2 U2 X &- W

9 57 o2 7

T @ T8*

[ Z

&- W +

$2 9 57

!

&2 Z 4 +F J 2 + T

2+

a r %

! 6 +F P- A P6W s ,7 /

J "P 3 2 + T r P%

! 'P * + Z s P,7

5+

.

A

$ MV "

]

$87 +F 9 57

! +F

$` 7

+F 9 57 $2 $…q 1

! +F GF $4 O J

0

? G ># # : 95

VG P 4CE [#

!K$ LL KG 3 arahimi_k@yahoo.com

0

45 x S

!K mousaaei@ut.ac.ir

0

# x S

< 45

!K$ LL KG 3 VG

0

#

># #

? # ?

< 45

!K VG I C

0

# _# C2

< 45

!K V G I C

(2)

-+&

"L

$ GF $4 O J NC2 +

P0F $4 E "P( r % /

P TWFP:

+ P2 F

: O( &2 &* 7 +

E H 2 ,5 2 K +

!

&2 &W * $4 T

P+

3 T

`$2 ;

! F'*

! 4 N +

! +F /

< "O /

"P2 [

> P Q /P P7

TM`

+

"I F

"

! 8* "Fi /

$'2 GF $4 &% T

!

…l7 + GPF $4 $P2 &P 4$` $ P

!

2+

$ '

!

…l7 +

$ / n`

[

! 0 2 $ + B F

! K F4

!

!

P8 3 M P 2 ` `

+ E 8 "F

! 1 /

&4$B

!

&

! F4 / WF:

/ T [ K $ P` &P2 &* 7 2

F4 ; 1 4

!

F: 2 gW 7 K $ ` { )($2

$`$ p C o /

P.

/

- 7 QB & n` g "Fi +

4 "

+

! +F / 4$—

+ Z- T

! +

P8* xXP F

4 &2

$2 A $2 2 N

/ C7 + Z

! OPOC7 %$

/ P

"P Z

4 &2 F‡

. 2 " ( N /

! 3 - 7 3 a " "F P+

P "

N

2+

N T " 3$2 ":

= / S

? P

$ ( P

&P1 Q P P

!

+F / T4 2 & *

! : /

$8

!

&2 2

"7 z „

! 0F $4 %$

/ 1 * /

, n /

&2 $8 )% H

&W 7 $8 /

"2 [

O J + M0F c- , & r F /

&F / 1 " 3

P

"

! 8* P7 P(

/

+ I / [

‰)j P2 & r I gW * +

N S + P+

2 r P+

P T +

&P ( $4 F

/

" $' F 3 A $2

! 2 %$

+ Z - / . / e ^ + )

! P

&W*$

Z- &2 `"FF%

! +F +

&2 f +

+ I "5 $M

"P &PF

$2

!

Z- L B

! +F 2+

N

^ + + Z P9 " 3$2 r

$P &P6F g

4 NC2 K $`

+ +

P. 8* F

/

P J P

/ PW +

P+

'P r

/

"

= B + Z H

^ ] e [?

TWF: " { )($2 +

&2 8* F

'% H

! P g P

P4 $

N

(3)

4 4#5 + # @ = A' +B ' -+) !!!

"7 Q /

"W7 $` 7 Z-

! +

& M l F

$P87 $8P ‰: OC $

MF " Z /

F+ TWF: 2

/ - PB T 2 4 &2 /

'P% &P%

/

2 F* $% i /

-

!

"

! B / 2$1 "# E /

Z- P P

P

! P+

F /

. " ~ "B /

( + Z- &1 Q $

! +F /

2 P 'P% P*

P+

$ '

T 2

= / S

? - B / 2 J A 6W &%

+ T P

! P+

F

! P

2 $

P+

$

$

! / . &2 T &* 7 ( $

!

! $P+I &P &P TP n` _PI &P%

P }$PX P8* TP 2 $'+I / F+ &2 j &2 $ ! F+ / ) d)5

"

+4 F+ !

! F'* / $

" * / 8* $, W !

• OP ( ( &2 !

"

= / R [?

&W- X 8 Z * 2

% B /

P $ P( F $ ! F+ &% T 3

!

/ / $ &2 / 2 T+W9

$2 [ b $` "

/ WP9 + T PWJ / D+

P $

!

$2 n`$…

* TWF: Z /

O7 T + + T n`

! P

! mP F

$P7

!

$P2

!

r u

$4 Z

/

"

& 'I

! u7

$2 f

! P2 &2 ‚ I +

!

€ P

3 /

"

[

$@ &2 / - " "

/

$` 7

+

$87 F

$8 $

! '%

&P2 ‰4$P:

-+

$ E . ,7 K $ `

/ g6, &2 ; $ 6 T$ F

P " ' T4

4+

$ / 4 > &2 ; $ +

PJ 6P &P2 $'4 } - m- J /

P y+

PQ $

+

&6 2 T

…l7 T#7 B g u Z +

$2 1 $

/

"

P P 1 &P- 5 Z

$P0

!

5#7 &W- X ; GF $4 O J NC2 &% T +

2 U + 3 $ ' T "F [

t F% 7 & n` g "Fi Er #7 &2 &* 7 2

& * $ ]I

+$

! )P d)5 /

#7 GF* > J +

/ /

! /

$#7

! 2+

Z - / 2 /

$7 F: "

P0F $4 o /

(4)

-+*

& * '%

+

…l7 T#7 F +$

Er #7 Z

=

OP J 1

! + P /

?[[[

TP P2

[

r % { $O 9 57 gW- X • O( Z 0F $4 E "(

/ ,J + +

'P% F

&2

$8 H

!

€ B + 2 $87 "F • 2 +

P. $P T T /

&P $2 P

!

„FPI

J " \$ &W 7 ; 7 g- O

! 4 B

&WP 7 ; 8i g $2 2 N

2 &2 \$ Z +

": N N

+ I A $2 T "

+ N 2+F / 'Pi "FP gWP 7 "P

O J " \$ '% "F 2

!

& $2

! 3 gW 7

"F

= QFPI g $2

?

"P: T'P &P2

" ( +

"

=

& $2 W _+€ ! $, E @ !

* 8 R [?

"2 8 /

&P% TP

0F $4 E "( r % " " Z /

@ +$

+F + PI / TP "P ( [

$2 PF2 Z

$2 9 57

! 0F $4 E "( r % & * E "( r % /

3 4 "F

"P ( N TP4

[

$2 Z

! 0C I /

&2 4 Z 9 57 N

&P2 ; r P4 Q P

H r P% P2

!

0F $4 /

@ + F+ $

! 73 / 2

$ "

&

n`

!

!

; Q ; r +

[

GF $4 O J NC2 6

/ r % 0F $4 E "(

/ TWFP: & *$2 +

TP F

• #- TWF: Z /4$.

+ T n`

!

$2 PF2 TP TP- N I T#7 NP5 Z

"

$0

! T- d Q /

&% "F%

+

&F

! ( P "1

! ,P F /

$P2

! 'P7 U

4

$ N &

n`

! : O( NC2 /

T%$

! g 2 +

&

: O(

/ - / 8 P+

"

[ 0F T- &% T x9 $I /

/ 7

"

+ T n`

! +

$ gF &

nP`

!

; r

$2

! TWF:

+

@F &2 F 2 4 Q

+ ' : 7 &W * $ +&

&P% "

P+

P9 57

!

WJ /

$2 2

!

$2 F2 " 2 & >). TWF: Z

$P2 P9 57 gPW- X ; Q Z

! TWFP:

+

Fi F

+

$ Z X /

$9 ‰) %

! T [ - / : g u /

"P { )($2 &% T Z

O J

!

( g '% T,j

+

$2 9 57 " $

! +F

MF '%

/ 2 P Z

)% 8

2 $87 $8 +

T & $ '

[ ' "F 3 /

P. &P% "P /

P P

!

S 7 4 $` 7 % "W7 +

+F

!

$87 N P%

0 'Pi +$

!

& P

(5)

4 4#5 + # @ = A' +B ' -+' !!!

$` 7 "W7 &% ! . &2 Z

"B J e^

+ +

$M P S^

&P2

"B

^ + +

$` 7

N % T & 4

= [?

(2&

3

;

0 1 2 G

!

: 0 7 2

6 X jg J 3bdc [

=& G

! 2 G>P

* & 8 Z 6

>G

!

= 6

! 2 G2 k 8 6 : 3bg4

{ $.

$0

" ' / F%

+ { )($2 P "P &P6F

+F

!

$P87 $8P PW4

W:

!

"W7 2 +F

! PW4 SS

P P

S

&P2 e

P P

4 N - & 4 /

$` P 7 "W7 "

P 0 'Pi N P% E"P Z +$

!

& P

T

= e [?

(6)

-(/

0 7 7 : G 6 2 ! G

(2&

9

;

=& G

! 2 G>P

* & 8 Z 6

>G

!

= 6

! 2 G2 k 8 6 : 3bg4

F‡

+ 4$— Z + -"F: T /

! +F

!

$P87 $8 P+

"PB S -"FP: P /

S

"B &2 R -"F:

/ N % T & 4

= [?

(2&

b

;

! R> = 6

! 2 6

: 0 7

6 X jg p 3bdc [

=& G

! 2 G>P

* & 8 Z 6

>G

!

= 6

! 2 G2 k 8 6 : 3bg4

(7)

4 4#5 + # @ = A' +B ' -(, !!!

5B

* U

• O(

+4 ! 9 57 $2 % B "

F+ !

$P87 P(

T ' + &9$1

2&

! .

&%

R P N % T 1 &2 "W2 &2 L PB ,5

F+

&2

"7

„ PW4 ! F+P "PW7 P+ $P87

TP "P & P %

= E

) GF $4

/ [?

$@ &2 /

&% "

NC2 O J P r % { $OP GF $4

! P0F $4 /

$8P

!

'%

& $2

‰: OC ; $ Ty$4 E J $% $I !$2 /F+' * / 7 ! mP- J

+4 NCI $ &1 Q / F+ !

"P4$.$I / P 7 ! P TP

[ 3 mP- *

&P6

F+ $` 7 N % 2

'%

&2

$2 „ "7

"W7

$` 7

NPCI E"P

& $2

" 4 7 ! T

= [?

^

^ e e^

(2&

c

;

* & 8 W/

: 0( Z (% 6 6

X jg p 3bdc [ - 0

! 2 6 (72 6

^T 0

8

"%2C

C =

.

* 6 3bg4

$2 F2

& $2 g9$1 &* 7 ( " Z

! 7 P / TP 6B

$P ZP

&P%

& $2

! 7 /

7

&2 j &2 "

P6 / P r %

! F+P ! $P2 Z+'P *

$8P

!

(8)

-(- '%

" 2 }$X [

"2 8 /

$2 &% T

!

$2 /

5 T#:

P P1 Z

&P- 5

$P9 B

Z 3 &W- X gW * > 9 [

$( T +J v( %n E" /. &i$`

/ $4

=

; 7 \$

?

&P2 $87 $8

"P7

+ 2 T +J ! $2 & 4 N 4 T

7 + F+

l

& $+…

" 3 $0 { $. /- - PI

/

+ W: "

!

2 ($2

Z ( / 7

"

£(

T +J N 4 P

$PI

"PF%

[

Z +4 $` 7 "W7 N % 7 T#7 / F+ !

l

! "W 1 $+…

TP P2 &P%

3$2

$2 F+ ! 9 57 o2 7 s 2$ ! $+D /

K )7 / F%

+ 7 P9 57 P 4 o

!

+F -" m- J $ /

$2 %

!

&€

+ [

B $ &2

"

+4 $` 7 "W7 N % /- / F+ !

$P87 /P.

P g

7 T#7 F% 7 & n`

l

! "W 1 $+…

T 2

[

: q B

/

$P9 B gP- 5 &%

2

‚ I 3 &2 "

+ T Z ] V D+

$

! O J

! P9 57 $2 $…q

! P &P2 Z P4 +F

=

&P2

r % &2 j

! 0F $4 /

?

$87 $8

;"%

–"

Y

A $2

9$4 q Z

+ }$ &2 &

}$X $ /

2 &%

2 3 "

+ + ]

9$4 +g ] B + 9 57 T

!

&2 Z 4 + J &2 &* 7 2 F +

2 T + 4 T + r %

! P 6

4+

2 +

T %

[

9$4 +g e]

B + 9 57 T

!

&2 Z 4 + D7 &2 &* 7 2 F P++

J "P 3 $ +

P r % TP

!

' * + 4 Z + 2 + T

[

&2 &* 7 2

&6F 6 / { "

$2 &- 5 Z /

9 57 "

! P+

$P87 F

T F% 7 & n`

O J W2 gW- X s ,7 Z

! + J & * F +

2 T + P T +F

{ $O " 3

`"FF%

`"FF% 9 57 +

J F + r % T

! 6 ' * + Z + P &P2 F

f % / 2 7 "F%

+ : q &2 /

Z

‚ I + [

$2 F2

&P* 7 2 Z Z

$2 9 57 o2 7 3$2 &2

! + . F / 2 / P S P gW- X m- J

! gPW *

(9)

4 4#5 + # @ = A' +B ' -(+ !!!

&* 7 2 $87 2&

$2 F+ ! 9 57 o2 7 w $C

! P $+D /P P:

/

…l7 + nP`$

&P2

/($2 F+ !$2 9 57 N % r

$87 / ‚ I 3 &2 +

[

$2

! l7 "F E 1). 3 @F Z P " "+

! E GPF $4 P

a54 &% / ) S

/ P !$P P 3 > $ ! F, 2 *

&PW- X ZP

T4$` $J Q 3 .

/

%

"B $87 $8 &

+ /

$` 7 gW * +F

!

&P2 'P%

• O ( ( 3 • #-

!

$2 /

$` 7 4

+

€ PB $P87 gPW * F

+ 2 T

& 4

!

" 3 T &2 /

7 + P $` P 7 gPW * &P2 +F

)%

$8

!

$ 2 '%

7 &2 ' a

$8 + W7 + + [

W3 $%&

/

2 @F

+

$@ E

! I+

' + 5#7 d i i &F P+

P4 P2 U +

7$7 &P2 &P% TP P+

m

9 7 + x / + [

g e

$

$ 2 +

4 F

+

&W- X N HI

! 8* 7 ( /

OP J PW2

! 1 P * /

0F $4 / - 7 "F $4 + 4 "

+ 4 TWF:

+

!

'% $8

!

; PQ 8* p C

T "

[

&2 &* 7 2

$ ` ‰, E +2 &6F

!

* s ,7 Z P

&P- 5 Z

" 0- ‰4$:

D+

9 57 { $. &2 s 2$ 1 $

! +

( }$X F

+

$P%

[

Z + ($2 &F /

&W- X

! w ( " ; Q

$P2 9 57 2 '% (

! Z P4

&2 +F

= r % &2 j &2

! 0F $4 /

?

$2 /

$%

[

" 8* p C ! '%

$P2 /QF OP J ` ` !

! P9 57 gPW- X

!

T " & 4$` f % F+

[ ($2 /

&W- X Z

• O(

gX2 + 2 F $

&

!

W * / 7 & * { $O GF $4

$`

/ 4+

! +F / '5 /

&%

+ TP

1. Time series data

(10)

-((

$2 +F V 7$

/ Y

= e

?†

9 57

! ( /

$2

! +F

! zP + V A P`

eY

= e

?†

$2 /

$2 9 57

! 4+

!

"Wœ2&

! V

€ P + Y

= e

?†

P OP J +F

V PF6

! Y

= e

? 1 4 † +

3 9 57

! +F V%

+ Y V b I

^Y P7 P

! P "P5 F +F

$2 /

…l7 +

$` 7 $2 3 $ V

+

SY

= e

? 2 +

!

&W- X

!

&2 'P

$P0

; Q

"

[ 8

$7

&W- X Z

! ( +

&2 s 2$ N HI $ V

% , `

RY

; P &P2 ! 6

V +4 !$2 9 57

! +

g1 E$… I F

+F

!

@F "PFi

=

&F- P "PFi

?Y P2

M V FI K Y

T

= [?2009

&PW- X ZP +P4 ! P9 57 P

^ 'P%

M 2 / I / !$ !

! P7 e P $2 / o2 P7 "P

! 9 57 +

$2 E : &2 F T " 3$2 +4 N !

[ Z P

! P9 57

T+ 2 g $

! 2 F%

&

J & 2 $+D &2 j +

2 T + T + -"FP: "W7 " 3 F /

&W*$ "W7

$2 `"FF%

!

$I $ + D &2 j &2 F +

$

!

3 "P P@F 5

$9 D m +$

! 2 T,j " 3 /MF T +J T " 3$

[

V

$ % Y 6 / I 55#

+

; 0'

&P- 5 g€ 2

!

; P &P2 V

$P2 P9 57

!

+

0 F

Y 9 57 o2 7 3$2 &2 ;"J

! +

M 2 F

!

$P

! P /

WX5 / '% Z [

- &- 5 Z +

&W- X Z /

&% T +

57 gF P9

! P+

F

" ; Q 0 '%

! 3

. 0 g5XF

/ P P

! S^

P7

o * 3

! T "

[ Q3 /

$ % &%

5#7 Z +

#P: 3 U +

# / P2 P+

1. Doherty

2. Vegas 3. Sluis 4. Mckenzie 5. Kim & Park 6. Nielsen 7. Marco Gambaro 8. Panel-Data Method 9. Cameron

(11)

4 4#5 + # @ = A' +B ' -(. !!!

7 M

Z /

* &2 T "

!

D 3

+$

/

= Q

!

? o2 P7

8 $% M $@"

QF OP J K M 2 3 g- W T

/ E PW2$ J"PB

W7 +

& 4

=

?GLS

gX2 E : &2e

X(

/ C7 $ + Z

= ]?1990

(ATT/CIN) = 0.12 - 0.23(Pc/P) + 1.04 (RPDI/PoP) + 0.35 PoP – 0.44 CoL - 0.001CIN ? =gX2

D+

$

! ,1 &- W Z E

"

ATT/CIN

] D &P2 j &P2 P+

3 &P% TP & P2 $

2 % "W7 $0 ATT

+ T

!

" & ( $4 +F

"W7CIN

+F

'P P

/

"

.

D+

$

! 5 ]Col

7 "W7

! 0 /

† P 0 'P% M P

]Pc

J+

2 T + T +

† F ]P

1 xX /

J+

T

† ]RPDI

WJ " 3 /

†• C ]PoP

P%

W * +

" '% T _

!

t

- " j

+ 7$7 &2 &

+

oP * gP5XF m

3

! P

' /

"

[ 6B $ % " : B w N'% T

" 3

!

$2 T,j

! P9 5 +

+F [

$W7 &2 F2 M /

$0

!

&2 Z +

&Q /

&% "

+F +

"F P r % $

0F $4 E "(

/

$F

!

" 3 N'%

! 2 + r 2 /

T ($2

[

"* /6

$7"

&W- X Z 3

+ 5#7 +

% E 5 +

; P &P2 b I V

1 P 4 P+

3

9 57

! +F ]

$% †&W- X Y

T P &%

+

E P1 • P#- F

1 P 4 P

P+

3

9 5 + 2 F* $%

/

$% &W- X

"

[

"P &W- X Z P

! 1 P+

3

$P2

! P9 57

!

+ K f % &2 F

! QF O J /

!

$

! /

= e PP S

? P C7 + Z

"

= [?2010

9 57 8 3

! + J &2 T, F +

3 TP 1 &, # N'% 2 T

* * ' + Z

!

$2 ` `

! +

" $% $%ƒ F [

P Z

! ,J P+

]7 P

€"

! 0 ( / 0'

!

$F

! E$ F%

! +5 / P+

P b $

$`$P $ /

1. Dummy Variable

2 Generalized Least Squares

+0

$ M % 5: wC

2 ? L : 4# W ? >M W s# > V >

H 0

(12)

-(&

$M7 r % &2 j &2 ; 1 gJ)1 E # P

'P * E "P(

+ P Z + P4$W F /

"P $%

[

& 4

! 7 &% ' 8 3

$`

+ J &2 ‰ 1 F +

2 T + T +

P2 P, A B F

" 3 1 +

2 /

"F s ,7 [

/6 5#7 $0 +

g- 5 &2 &2 ' E 5 V

3Y

; &2 V 1 P * E$…

/ P OP J

!

$P2

! 4 L B N +F

] ZIk †&W- X Y

K M P P2 &P% • OP (

f % &2 2SLS

! WX5 /

= FI

? P.

/

= e P

? P $2 &P2 / gPW- X

$2 $…q 1

! 4

$` 7 "W7 N +

T & ( $I ZIk F [

!

` P% &P2 2 +$

!

2+

N

^ D+

@ 5 $

+

$]

$` 7 "W7 +

J F + WJ T / 2+

$PI "PW7 T P

!

+ Z- "W7 F

! +F

!

$I 4 "W7 _ +

!

& ( M W * P

P+

T

9 57 o2 7 %

! +

C7 F

+

T Z

= [?2008

F‡

+ Z + N HI gF

! ($2 '% ( " ; Q /

$0'P HI 55#

E : &2

!

&W- X / NC2$

!

; Q GF $4 O J

"

&P%

PQF

"W7 &2

! 8

$7 . &% 8 3 Z /

( g "Fi +

$

& 4$` E : $ /

F%

+ [

6 / N HI

` 7 &2 &% / /

V / Y V + / Y 2 +F

!

; PQ $

"P

V C7 + 9 57 Z

!

$2 (

!

&2 Z 4 +F e

$P Y TP

= P / P+

/

S [?

M 2 55# Z

+ 9 57

!

$57

‰,

"

e 3

$2 &%

! -+

2 Z V P7 Y

V

$2 Y I

&

n`

! P9 57 o2 7 " $%

! P+

P F

P

! pP C

C7 '%

+

N'% 3 " Z

! J+

/

" 3

! +

$2

!

;"% $ P

P

% %

" $% &, # ' [

C7 "

+F /

$2 8 3

! 9 57

! + E P: &P2 'P% P% F

gX2 T $ ]

W1= 0/222865 -0/002692 ln p1 -0/226569 ln p2 -0/008427 ln p3 -0/014818 ln p0 -0/016596ln (e Real) +0/469129W1 (-1) ? =gX2

1. Yamamura

2. Almost Ideal Demand System 3. Deaton & Mellbur

(13)

4 4#5 + # @ = A' +B ' -() !!!

" Z ]W1

( w C

$2

!

&2 Z 4 + D &2 j &2 &% T F +

™ $P4 & 2 $

"

eReal,P3,P2,P1

7$7 &2P0

+ ' m J a "F

+ 2 TP P+

P T +

aP F

J+

$' T &

J a + WJ " 3 d % T /

J v( (

+

"F P TP [

P

' %n g- W : B

/ J N'% &% "

+ /

$2

! P &2 Z 4 +

PW F

˜

" 3 N'%

! 9 57

! +F

^R

• T [

&W- X

! E 5+5#7 $0 V

/P 1

;"P5 Y

&P2

; V

$ ! F+ ! O J + #7 !$2 /2 i i g€

Y / 7 0'P &P% $ $2

< : ;

=

>

? T " ; Q

= / 1

;"5

^ [?

$ U+5#7 Z

! P

#7 + /

!$P: F1

T( $ NC2

$P ! F+P ! OP J P+ #7 &P% $% / F 2

T [

$0' HI "Fi

$0 V 9

! Y

4 6

S N P F oPX5 $ PI 3 /

& K M 2 &% $% $8

`+

$

!

& (

!

"P $% &W- X " 2 " d C

= 9

! 6

^ [?

& 4

! 2 &% ' 8 3 +

Z + 7

! 7 +

d % gW- X

! y+

$ /

&X2 &

! - " * FW /

2 P+

P 7

!

7

&X2 & Q gW- X

! . &2 † * FW

! 4 2 &%

N P+

P 7

!

7 +

g Q gW- X N Z

N % 3

/

"2 [

V3 Y 6 /

' HI 55# $0

/ PF, /

$P2 V TP,y N P4 /0 P0i /P $2

F+ M &2 $` 7 Y

P9 57 P2

! P+

P $2 F /

TP $P%

= S [?

P Z

: 1 $0' HI

/ I +

&2 &W*$ xX 2 Z +

2 F

D &P2 &P* 7 +

P $ / Pi ]

D _F* Z +

O#7 + E) +

" 3 [[[

M 2 $87 $8 N $I

&P

$2 / Q7

#7 &

+

T $%

[

6 /

; &2 55# $0 V

$MW*

! H Y ' HI ; Q 2 /

F1 T#7 V

! P 6 / $2

; Q

&2 /'C2 ($i

g o 7 "+- 7

…3 N F+

P / E $P WP9 + P T +F

- 7 "

+ 7 "

4 o +

oX5 $

/ I "W2 ,J P+

$

! )P d)P5 /

(14)

-(*

$2 &W- X /

T

= S [?

$2 Z 9 N HI Z /

( P pW9 s 5

6'7 g "2 + 7) / F4 /

$*

/ P+

F

! P

6 $

P

!

; Q P 'PC2 /

mP- J 3

`

&F

!

$2 p C /

,7 ++

T Z

[

V J 1 / Y ' HI /

"*

; &2 "

V

$2 / P0F $4 Er P#7 2 5 s ,7 /

OP J

!

#7 f % &2 +

0 , / Y

$ 3 f % &2

! / - P +

&

=

^ PP S^

? P $2 &P2 /

0 , / 2+

r % Z

= D+

$

?

! O J

$9 & ( $I '% GF $4 0 , m

/ P2 + Z

T $% &, # 8 3 [

D+

$

! gW- X

P4 $` P 7 P $0' HI Z

+

d % "W7 '% % F1 2

"* Z

"W7 "

+F

!

T1 '%

!

& $2 NCI

!

7 J v(

+ 4$O T / J+

$M7 T x O#7 + T & $ " 3

= R [?

"* g- 5

"

&2 s 2$ $0 V

$`

/ H Y 6

! F1 T#7 V

P+ #7 /P $2

$2 $…q 1

$ ! F+ ! 9 57 Y

T

= [?

ZP { "P N HPI

P $2 / P 1

Z- +4 " !$2 ,. C T,y $…q F+ !

E P: &P2 P+

"

/ FP

!

2

F+ ,. C N % 1 Z

$+( ! P 3 mP- J

9$4 + }$ &2 &

T $% &W- X $ ]

9$4 +g ] +5 gX2 F+ ! 9 57 "5 2 $4 " 3 [

9$4 +g e]

/ N % F+ !$2 9 57 ( "W7 N 4 2

"2 [

B e / W3B U U

+ r % &2 j &2 F /

0F $4 / r % $ "F

! OP J

! P9 57 PJ $P0 I

P+

$

!

/

"F%

[ Z 9 57 ! u7

! )%

+

ef

&%

$@

g { $O

" w$C "FF%

! PF,

$9 B gW- X

$J T & 4$`

[

$2 A Z P r P% $P !$P2 /P $` P ! $4 ! 9 57

T "(

1 /W2 7

=

$+D

!

?

` ` T

[

$2 F2 Z

™ $4 /

! P9 57 "5 &%

1. The Law of Demand

2. Classic Demand Theory

(15)

4 4#5 + # @ = A' +B ' -(' !!!

r % 3 T +J /W2 7 r % $ !$2 $4

$4 " 3

= /9 5

? P2 ! r % $ T +J

&

= 6 Z+' * ! r %

?

5+ / +J @

g

$4

= /9 5

? T [

’% $+D &

/M+% !"W2 $+D / T

[

&5+ P $P++D7 $2 ! "W 1 Z+F‡

$…

/

" n`

‰7" 1 &%

,F*

g

/ /0F $4

[ /W * ! 9 57 B

= P2

?

&4 P9 P2

$+D &2 T+W * $+D $%

! r 2 /F#F /54 o * ! u7 U,.

$P4 ! P9 57 o2 7

2&

/ T

" 3 [ Z $2 F2 - W

g 2 % ! 9 57 /

P7 W 6P &P2 gP-

P2 /P9

&

$ E : T

= / 5 R

?]

Qdx = f (Px, Y, P1, P2, PoP, T, E) ? =gX2

r 2 gX2

Qdx

]

!r % !$2 9 57 "5

=x

&2

&2 j

& 2 $+D

?†

Px

]

!r P% T +J

x

= 9 57

?†

]Y

+ +9 5 " 3

P1

] P2 !r P% TP +J

&

= P

>

Z+'P *

?†

P2

]

P2 !r P% T +J

&

= P 6 > P

?†

]PoP

† 'P% TP+W * ]T

g5+ P +P9 5

:E

@

! / +J 9 5 +

"F 3 T [

&- W Z

$2 A { $O 4 f+ )% ! u7

"FF%

T { $O $ ! u7 Z U,.

"FF%

= /9 5

?

"P 2 /P: ( "P 3 ! &P%

$P

r % / 9 57 ! "5 &2 T "(

+2 X o2 7 &% "F%

N

" P $2 $j%"B &2 [

A P $P2

{ $O 4 ! u7

f+ )%

{ $O ! 9 57

&2 &* 7 2 `"FF%

P9$4 +&

P

! 6P $P

/

$+`

=

Heilbrun & Gray, 2004

]?

9$4 +g ] { $O " 3 2 "# T 1 &2

`"FF%

= +9 5

?

&P2 PJ P8 3 P7

l Z+

g

& (

"F d C 83 /($2 " ,Q "F + ( ! [

9$4 +g e]

{ $O d C T /5XF `"FF%

/ /W 8 3 /FW P " 3 "PFF%

T 9 $j%"B 7 "F w$( ! . PQF OP J &% "FF% : B Z6 $. (

10 Utility Function

(16)

-./

9 ! * &2 T+2 X })X:

T / % &2 $. (

"$2

•/4$OP ! P r % &6F T 8

"F % / 8 T+2 X J o2 7 $4 /

2

"

[

N'% g, # &2 &* 7 2

! e

9 57 p C /

7 + B +

$2 9 57 T

! r %

7 "(

/

"F +

5 F

D ; "% $ 2 &

+

$

!

#7 5 + F%

+ [

$2 A P

N HI

! 2&

" 3 1 2+

$ ' W- X

&

!

" ; Q 2

/P0F $4 ! P r % ! P9 57

$+@ / 1 ]

r % T +J { $O " 3

`"FF%

=

& $ " 3

?

&X ! r % T +J

= Z+' *

6

?

&2

&2 j

$+D

’% !

" 2 J /

$ "P P 0- Z++W7 d C !$+`

&P. 2

2 $…q + 2 PW- X Z /M+% $+D ‹+ &% /- B

&

P

&P 4$0 $PJ &P* 7 P

T [ Z $2 F2

$@ " " ! 0- M-q

@F &2 F+P ! P9 57 o2 P7 3$P2

$P87

$+D 6'

’% !

QF /

+

"

/ T

$+D $

@ &5+ $+@ /M+% ! P

!

+J

&% / / 7

"

!$+`

$%

Z+ C7

"

/ 8 { $:

$@

T "

[ P 1 6 /

9 57 o2 7

! +F

$2

! gX2 m- J $87 $8

= e

?

&9$1 / ]

TQc = f (TPc, Yn , Py1 , Py2 , PoP , Dum ,…) ?e=gX2

&- W Z D+

}$ &2 $

; $ n`

!

"

"

[

TQc

]

$` 7 "W7

- +9 5

+

$87 $8 F+ g

=

&2

&2 j

& P2 $+D

?

5 ! $+D $

]TPc

a T +J

$87 F+ T+ 2 ]Yn

"P 3 v(

$2

! 9 5 + + - PI v- ( " 3 a 3 &% F /

$P2

! P

$8P P( f

!

@F $87 T "

[

Py1

] J+

r % T 'P * E "P(

+ P Z + v( P &P% F

J+

$M7 T

" M $87$8 x

Py2

] J+

r % T v( P &P% P 6 E "(

J+

T % T

/

!

" M $87 $8 ]PoP

- T+W * +

$P87 $8 g

]Dum

D+

Q $

! ' E $… "F /

PF4

! P

!

"*

P ,J "

P+

] P

€"

&

! Q +

"* &2 ' $

$P2 "

! P9 57

! +

&P% TP F

1. The Law of Diminishing Marginal Utility 2. Elasticity

(17)

4 4#5 + # @ = A' +B ' -., !!!

S 9 57 F% 7 "W2 &2

! +F

&2 $

…lP7 T#7 $87 $8 H +

$PJ $

T [

$2

! D "5 @F Z +

Q $

!

$2

!

! ,J R

$P2 $MP: W

!

"1 F% 7 3 "W2

• #- &- W f /

[

` [

Z E 1). 3 o * K

&- 5

K ` / $2

!

!ƒ o2 F "F aP2

T & C2 % M T / $ F !

[ F‡

+ Z

!

/ P o2 PF +

'%

&

d B ! 3 ! TP+ 2 TP +J &2 s 2$ E 1). $ / !

0 F+

! ƒ

! T " n( a2 [

- &2 +

/ C Q

"P nP( 3

T +J ! F, $2

& I T2 … !

=

?

&+87

"

$` P 7 / P !$P 3

T+ 2 T +J a F+

J v(

+ r % T

! - I " 3 a,7$

/ P9 5 v- ( +

/. $87 $8 /

= P S

?

"P M P F+ ! 9 57 o2 7 Z+ C7

T [ +

#7 +

$2

! 2 a2 gW- X +

D Z + /- P W E PW2$ J "PB K P $

=

?OLS

&W- X &% T

! QF O J /

M 3

/ [ A $2 P

P2 gPX2 K Z +

Z

D+

$

! / 9 57 $2 $…q

!

&2 Z 4 +

$2 F / / B E"

+ T +

" $…q 1 ;"% $ &2 9 57

`+

$

! /

$`

[

K Z

+

$P2 9 57

! Z P4

&2 + D &2 j &2 F +

D & 2 $ +$

! 5 ] J+

T 2 P+

P T + - PI "P 3 F /

J v(

+ T /

! J v(

+

$M7 T

"F $87 x [

4$.

/ Z + vC'P

D ;"% $ $` &% " " ( +$

!

%n

= D+

$

! 5

? D7 "P: f P++

"PF% $

` 3 +

$2 9 57

!

&2 Z 4 + P 8* &Pi "P: "PFi F /

D7 P++

$P% "P ( $ [

F‡

+ 3 gW * Z

! g- 5

P9 5 $4 g $9 B

/ P P4 $` P 7 +

P

!

10 Ordinary Least Square

(18)

-.- +

6 $ J $@ T $87 $8 F

/ + g +F

!

d F* "#

$2 $87 $8 d$y <$ %$

/

`+

$ [

"2 8 / +P9 5 4 &% T

=

$` P 7

?

F+ &2 Z 4 !$2 9 5 " 3 $87 W4 ! F+ "W7

+ J+

2 T + J T + T

!

, / 9 57 $2 Z n` $+…l7 • #- &2

!

8 $4

/ )P P GF $4 E T

T + ; 5

` n Z++W7

&P 4$` $PJ &P* 7 P 'P% F+P T+ 2 T +J "FF%

T [

- ! Z

&5,. _I

"F2

! K $I Z "Fi

K $2

> P mP- J pP C

&- W

! QF O J /

" ; Q +

&- W

! T- B " 3$2

` P ` !

; 7 o2 7 /X( /X(

˜

; 7 / 0- m F / 0-

F+P ! P9 57 o2 P7 Z $7

W E : &2 $87 $8 0- { $. g-

/ P 1 6P &P2 Š", ™ $1 "2 /

" w$C $ gX2 ]

Ln TQc = a1 Ln TPc + a2 Ln Yn + a3 Ln Py1 + a4 Ln Py2 + a Dum + Ut ?^=gX2 r 2 gX2

!

a1

a2

a3

a4

7$7 &2 + 2 m +

$P9 $0 D m

+ P $

!

"P 5 P

J+

2 T + T +F

=

?TPc

9 5 " 3 +

=

?Yn

J v( P +

$PM7 TP x

=

Py1

?

&P2

r % &2 j

! ' * +

J v( Z

+ r % T

!

P T %

/

!

=

Py2

? r P% &P2 j &P2

!

6 + T F [

g- W &2 &* 7 2

= e

? + D „FI + D "P &9$1 $ P+

W * $ P+

T

=

?POP

- &P2 P+

FW E)6' Q /

$9 ,

m

" t

Q X(

/

"

P` "

/ 0 P, / P2

($2 / D+

$

!

"P { nB &- W " $0 [

PF‡

+ Z

Ut

)P( gP * PF1 &P2

4 O7 / 4$W "

/

"

[ g 6 D &6F $0 +

W * $ +

* %n " T 0

/ TP "

&- W g $

!

‰, $57 " 3$2 +

! FW gX2 ‹ F+P ! P9 57 P+ Z+2

(19)

4 4#5 + # @ = A' +B ' -.+ !!!

W * + ($2 Z+ C7 &6F { )($2 "' " ' T /

"

W * P+

&P2 j &P2 T P6

/

$+D

! 2 /- " $` • #- 5 +

" $ '

%nP $+D m $9 " K $2 !

3 • #- l7 ! 3 !

$` { nB / 8 " "' "+

P

"

[ 8 P T PQ _PI

;

K $2

!

C7 ` `

+

&- W > 3 Z

! C7 " 3$2 +

8 Z / o2 P7 "P

$2 9 57

!

&2 Z 4 +F

= r % &2 j &2

! 0F $4 /

?

$87 D f

+ P8i & 2 $

D+

5 $ D f

+

$ /

= Q

!

? gX2 E : &2

= S

? }$ &2

" 3$2 $ [

Ln TQc = - 0.68 Ln TPc + 1.32 Ln Yn - 1.99 Ln Py1 + 1.5 Ln Py2 + 0.52 Dum +

Ut ?S=gX2

$9

m t! 3] ?˜ •e^= ? R•e = ?˜^• e= ? • = ?e•R =

= e

= ?

= ?

= ?

= ?

• ] ? FW } X /

=

R2 • S __R2=D.W =

` AJ ' ) /

R L 1 2 32 /

'

$ 1 4 &

X

` A

/

;

$ -

" 0& : /

S L- Y /FW &2 &* 7 2

; P 7 "P " Z+ C7 ! $ I m $9 2 P0-

/

F‡

+ 9 57 $ 5 Z 2 Z J v( " 3 T +J

+ r % T

!

& 2

= 'P * + Z

6

? N'%

9 57 p C !

! +

$2 F

!

$% &, # $87 $8 [

Q 3 /

&P%

9 57 o2 7

! + 0- { $. g- W E : &2 $87 F /

$% 3$2 N'%

P

!

9 57

! +

$@ F

9 /

$9 W

D "P 3$P2 m +

P $

! J "P 3 + TP

2+

T +

J F

+ T

! , / gX2

= S

?

"* &% "F

=

? T " 3 [

(20)

-.(

"6 d e

` AJ ' ) M A & R L 1 2 32 /

1 4 & $' / % "

- !

:` /

dirs ' D "L

$

( ` A_ "; ` A/&" "L $j-

%

N'•% S S - [ 2!KW TXTPc

N'% 2 e e [6 . W TXYn

2

N'% - W TXPy1^2" 6n T *8 } *8

V H [

N'% 2 ^e ^e W TX Py2 R! & 6n T *8 } *8 V H

[

R 1 >0

$ : q A $2 /

5#7 + U 9$4 &- 5 Z +

$P% }$X &

&P2 &P* 7 P2 &P%

• %n " 3$2

& 4

! 8 3 $9 B N HI /

3

; +

R

$ J d

#

™ $4

H0

] B + /

$2

! 9 57

!

&2 Z 4 + D7 &2 &* 7 2 F ++

J " 3 $ +

P r % T

!

' * + 4 Z +

" * [

™ $4

H1

] B + 9 57 T

!

&2 Z 4 + D7 &2 &* 7 2 F ++

J "P 3 $ +

r % TP P

!

' * + 4 Z + 2 + T

[

C7 &2 &* 7 2 +

9 57 o2 7 Z

! +

gX2 $87 F

= S

?

$P9 g PFW m / P Z

M7 A $2 o2 7 +

s ,7 ‰r & 4$` E : $ P+

P9 5 "P 3 +

P9 57 "P5

!

+

… 2 T,j F

+ FW &2 &* 7 2 ‰ /

$9 2

D m +$

"P 3 N'P% " " 3

!

• 2 &% 9 57 W 3 "5 T "B $7

e

"P* UP,. "P &,P # "B

=

?

$2 F2 T 9 57 Z

! + T N'% 2 ‰) % " 3 &2 &* 7 2 F [

(21)

4 4#5 + # @ = A' +B ' -.. !!!

F‡

+

1 2 Z

!

J 2 N'% 2

+ r % T

! ' * + Z +F + / P7 P2 TPM`

FW &2 &* 7

!

$9 J m + r % T

! 'P * +

gPX2 Z

= S

? P+

• P2 P. Z

$P7

U2 X 3 N'% 2 "B

& 4

! 5#7 + W &% U

^

• T " 3$2 Z

&P 4 P

% B /

J 2 N'% 2

+ r % T

! ' * + Z +

TP $P87 F

[

$2 PF2

> P Q Z

+

&Q /

`+

$

™ $4 &%

H1

% 2

" 3 N'

! 9 57

! +F +

P2 P. Z

J N'%

+ / r %

! ' * + Z + l7 ‰) % F +

nI "

& 4$

/

™ $P4 P2 5

H0

/ [ R

$ J h

#

™ $4

H0

] B + /

$2

! 9 57

!

&2 Z 4 +F

&* 7 2 J &2 + 2 T + P4 T + P r %

!

4 6 +

" * [

™ $4

H1

] B + 7 T 9 5

!

&2 Z 4 +F

&* 7 2 J &2 + 2 TP P+

P4 T + P r %

!

4 6 + 2 +

T %

[

$% &% . P9 57 o2 7 w$C &2 &* 7 2

! P+

; PQ $P87 F

3

! 3 &2 s 2$

8 FW T /

$9 2

m o2 7 Z

&P 4 P

! 5#7 P+

U

3$2 2 s ,7 N'%

! J+

/ 9 57

! +

o. P5 N'P% F

= J N'P%

+ r P% TP

!

6

? ' / J N'% "1 "5 U X "J &% "

+ / fi % 9 57 TP "PB $7

W 3 "5

= S

? T " &, # "B

=

"*

?

$2 PF2

5 P9 57 Z

P

&

J a 2

+ T +

2 $87 $8 F

+

%

% T N' [

F‡

+

P1 2 Z

! P%

N'P%

J 2

+ r % T

! 6 +F + / 7 FW &2 &* 7 2 TM`

!

$9

gP- W 3 m

= S

? F‡

+

• 2 Z U2 X 3 N'% U X "J 2 "B $7

& 4

! 5#7 P+

"P* U

=

?

$57 3 U X "J &%

‰,

"1 &2 f e

" &, # Z

4

&

7$7 &P2 P P+

% PB m /

%

J 2 N'%

+ 2 T + T +

J 2 N'% 2 F

+ r % T P P 6 E "P(

+F

(22)

-.&

T $87

[

$2 F2

> Q Z +

&Q /

`+

$

™ $4 &%

H1

J N'% 2 +

P / P9 57

!

+ nI F

& 4$

/ - B

/ J N'% 2 &%

+ / r %

! 6 +F

= o. 5 N'%

?

‰) % /

$`

[

™ $4 2 5

H0

F, / J &P2 T, 9 57 "5 2 N'% 2 $2 +

TP

2+

T +

- F

/ 9 57 2 N'% 2 2

! + J &2 T, F +

r % T

! nI 6

&P 4$

/ [

)

$ K

! -

" 3$2 "

= gX2 S

?

% " 3$2 ! $+D m $9 g ‰, $57 P2 U2 X ‰)

"F P P@ TP8* /5XF + m $9 €)1 T F+ ! 9 57 o2 7 f u7 / ,

$2 F2 }$ &2 Z

#7 $ + M7 +$

/

"

]

P MF T )1 &2 &* 7 2 /

$9 m gX2 TPc

+ J a 9 57 "5 +

2 TP P+

T

+

T _61 $87 F

FW / 4 2

P N

J a + 2 TP P+

P T +

$P87 F

$2 9 57

!

&2 Z 4 + N % F /

&2 "2 _61

= 2 T2 … s$ &2

$P $ a

D+

$ [?

Z u7 U2 X > 9 Z

! P9 57

! P )% u +

PJ P2 f

- / 9 57 2 +

l7 +

"

/

†"F%

P &P% T FW "2 Z +F

P+

&P2 j &P2

r % / 0F $4 /

- J

/ s P,7 P2 _61$P2 &P2 &P* 7 2 9 57 2 P+

J+

2 T + T +

$2 9 57

!

&2 Z 4 + I F +

$

! /

"

[

P

$9 T,j T )1 &2 &* 7 2 m

gX2 Yn

+ - PI "P 3 aP 9 57 "5 /

9 5 v- ( +

+

5 $87 F

+ T FW / P4 P2 N P

aP N P%

- I " 3 /

$4 v- ( +

0 +

$2 9 57 •Z

!

&2 Z 4 +F +

P4 TP- B

N

N % "W2 T- B /

"2

= 2 T2 … s$ &2

$ $ a D+

P $ [?

$2 PF2 Z

> 9 Z +

u7 U2 X

! 9 57

! )% u +

l7 2 f

+

"

/ [

"P2 8 / TP

" 3 &‡ Fi

= ' &%

$( E "J "F T $4 "

? 4 N P9 57 ‰r P W "2

!

(23)

4 4#5 + # @ = A' +B ' -.) !!!

$4 + r % & * E "( r %

! 0F $4 /

@ + P $ +F /P P 7 P4 "

N

"2 [

P MF T )1 &2 &* 7 2 /

$9 m

Py1

gX2 + 9 57 "5

! +

J v( P F

+ TP

T % /

! T _61 $87 FW

/

&2 Er O# Z H

/

! P4 +

r % &2 j &2 6 E "(

+ d # F /

"

[

$2 F2 82 N % 2 Z

! Er O#

$2 9 57 $87 %n

!

&2 Z 4 + 4 F N /

&2 "2 _61

= TP2 … s$P &2

2

$ $ a D+

$ [?

W "2 Z P &2 Z 4 ; 0F $4 &% T F

+

*$P7 F + x

/ 4 Er O# "F +

! +F / - 7 +

"

! m- J /

!

$(

"

!

"PFF%

[ - P+

g &% T 3 & u Z /

! ,7 + '7 E D

$P2 U

! P P4 "

+ P

!

$% • B 4+

/ 3 &% *

"P "P ( $P% "F P

Z NP5 r P%

I 6

+ T $% "

[

P MF T )1 &2 &* 7 2 /

T,j

Py2

gX2 + J v( P 9 57 "5 +

$PM7 TP x

5 $87

+ T FW /

$M7 r % F1 &2 x ' * T "(

+ P Z + d P# F

/ [

$2 F2 4 2 Z 82 N

!

$M7

$2 9 57 $87 x

!

&2 Z 4 +F P+

P4 N

/

&2 "2 _61

= 2 T2 … s$ &2

$ $ a D+

$ [?

"2 Z TP ; 8M Z

9 5 $4 &%

/ +

*$7 F + x / Z 4 r 2 ; 0F "F

&PF P

!

$PM7 K $P` x

$2 9 57

! 2 P( Ty$4 E J $% $I @F &2 "F N % K $`

P+

&P2 $ '

+

&2 " $2 F 61

_ [

P M7 &2 &* 7 2 Z $2 F2 +

#7 $ +

& 4 /P $2 U,.

P+ "P ; PQ ! P

"

"P & ( FP ZP6 " Z $ 82 &2 j &2 %n o2 7 " K $2 • ` ` ! T [ Z++W7 m $9 2 r 2 R2

PW &% " Z S

% PB TP "P:

/

$'7 E "J

$9 x D m +

$

!

C7 5

+ P $` g- W Z +

TP [ P P8 Z

/ '

"B &% "

S 9 57 + $++D7 ":

! +

&P2 $87 $8 F

(24)

-.*

x+P9 7 " " /4$W 5 ! $+D g + /P

P [

$P2 )P1 P

Z

FW /

$9 2

m B 83 g &% " t

/ X I } + Z

"P: „FPI $P7 P+

" oJ ,5 l7 ( "

+

"

$0

!

#P: 3$P2 $2 +

P9 57 o2 P7 x

! + TP F [

3 gQ+ A $2 Z+F‡

V 2+

Z

˜ 7 Y

"P1 &P2 fP ‰, $57 &%

e

&P2

"P5 &P2 &P* 7 2 /0 , ( Z " T 6B " 3 T R2

&P% ___

Z $2 F2 " d ( K $2 ' " &, # ":

/ 7 + P: B „ P &2

F% 67 2 "

+ + W7 &W- X gW * &2 " w $C „ +

[

* $-3 / $2

$

& 4

" 3 T &2 „ 9 57 &% ' N HI Z

! +

$87 F

OP J $@

!

…l7 T#7 +

: 1 8i $

/ T ] J+

2 T + T + 9 5 " 3 F +

P $` 7

+F

J+

r % T ' * E "(

+ 6 Z [

Q 3 /

" 3 N'%

! 9 57

! P+

F P Z

2+

$2 F2 T " 3$2 "B $ ' Z

+F + P0F $4 E "P( r % /

r % &2 j &2 /

T " & ( F _% - [

PB &P% TP ; 8M "2 Z +

$` P 7 T

+ D7 &2 &* 7 2 $87 $8 F ++

$

! P2 " 3 + TP r 2 [ P9 5 "P 3 &P‡ Fi +

+F 4 "B f N

"2

= 2 T2 … s$ &2

$ $ a

? + 0 +

$P2 9 57 •Z

! P+

F

2+

N

"B f 4

" ( N T4

[

Z

& 4 2

&W- X /

&%

V 6 )2 Y VI +F

eY

= R

? V 2 ` P Y V

% P + E Y

= e e

?

; Q

"

+ 0F / [ F‡

+ Z

& 4 6B T

$PM7 &P% Z

&P2 x

r % F1

! ' * + Z +

% 2 ‰) % > " & ( F $87 F P2 N'

P Z

B + 9 5 T + + D7 &2 &* 7 2 F ++

J $ + r % T P

'P * E "P(

+ P Z +

@ F P+

$

1. Durbin-Watson

2. Blanco & Pino

3. Garboua & Montmarquette

(25)

4 4#5 + # @ = A' +B ' -.' !!!

$M7 2 K $` x +

T r 2 ' Z

/ FW gX2 &% "

! P2 + P9 5 Z + P+

F

$M7 &2 83 Z 4 $87

* K $` x [

Z 2 „

&P 4 P

! 2 P+

$ ' P55#

* ( /

@ +$

] Q /

= e

? V

% 0 + b I Y

= e

? V - % "P +F Y

= e ^

?

V

Z $ $

Y

= e ^

?

( $0' HI $0

/

"F ] V P / P+

/ Y

= S

?

V 1 Q / Y

=

^

? V 9

! 6 Y

=

^

? P+

,X7 P+

U [

$2 PF2

&P2 &P* 7 P2 Z

+ T

` n

! ( + T- $ +

gF T- "F % &2 $M g

OP7 Z + N P%

$2 9 57

! +

I F

/ T " ( [

I Z

+ 8F' / F%

+ P@F &P2 TP- &P%

'7 7 &2 "F % U

! 4+

! +

$2 9 57 ,82 F

! P+

F 2 gP P+

P T +F

T( $I

"

=

"F

$M g [?

+ . Z N'% /% B $87 ! F+ T+ 2 T +J m $9 2 : B „

!$ nI

%

&P2 Z P4 !$P2 P9 57 / +J N'% U X "J /FW T T +J &2 &* 7 2 9 57 "5 2 $2 $2 F+

]

<

S

=

T ; 8M "2 Z T Ep

&P%

aP TP +J &P‡ Fi

T+ 2

"2 N % N 4 ": f '% F+

= P 1 $ P " T2 … s$ &2

?

W ": f $ % F+ !$2 9 57 S

• TP4 " ( N 4 N % ":

[

/2 QF

' 9 57 2 N'%

/

&% "

+ TP +J $P++D7 P2 F+ ! 9 57 gPX2 P

"Fi /

"

[

&* 7 2

&2 T- $ Z /

7 T + "

n`

U 'P7 P@F &P2 ( !

& $

TWF: n`

+

"P N 4 m F „ "7 &2 F+ T+ 2 T +J F [

ZP

+4 `"FF%"+- 7 /Q "7 " 3 N 4 |1 2 > 9 P8 3 $ 'P+2 U '7 / F+ !

T+- W4 K $ ` &2

+ " '

/ U "F 3 U4 F+ TWF: &Q

"'C2 [

F‡

+ U,. Z

& 4

! 9 57 "

! +F 6 /

D P 1 $0

+ P $

!

$P2 $…qP

J v( 3

+ r % T

! 6 +

&% T $87 F P

N'P% 2 ‰) P% &PW- X Z

"5 U X "J

"B 3 e

T " 3$2 [

TP ; P8M "2 Z

$P` &P%

P

"PB f

J+

r % T

! 6 +F

=

&%

5#7 Z + J v( U +

P T % T

/

!

&P2 j &P2

(26)

-&/

r %

!

4$W 6

/

"

? D7 ++

"F% $ 0 3 9 57

!

$2

! + 3 •$P2 $2 "B F PFW

/ e

D7 "B ++

$% " ( $ [

Q 3 /

&%

2 6 Er O# Z +

J

!

$2

! + P &2 F /

3

$2 PF2 "PF Z

/ 7 B "

+ 9 5 T + 0 $2 3 &2 +

[ 2 &2 + 9 5 $0 +

+

P $87 F

&2 Z 4 2 +

*$7 F + x / P4 Er O# "F +

P

! P+

F / mP- J P /

! P+

$(

"

!

"FF%

[

& 4

! 5#7 NC2 Z +

2 U

& 4

!

$0' HI /

@ +$

] )2

I P6

+ PF

z +

= R

?

% 0 +

= e

?

Z $ $ $%

= e ^

? P -3 P+

‰) P%

/

%l7 ( &%

+

"

! 5#7 % , 1 $2 +5

/ T `" 0 [

(27)

aFb S%

P

$4 3

"

= S 8[?

&( # Z

W

*J8 0 1 2 = r , J

2 !J

$87 ]

) GF $4 E

/ E . ,7 $F GF $4 0' HI [

P

%$ f 2

! 8 *

! ) / $

= [?

O J 3

! [

P

$MW*

!

;$8 H

= S

<e$& 6 " 8[?

*8 /8 JI # Q VJ ( J!>(

@. W 2&

2 ! 0

$87 ]I

P GPF $4 E $PF GPF $4 0'P H

) / [

P B + Z 1" # H /

= e [?

! V 2 6

% GK

!

= _ T

"

6

W/8 Y

) GF $4 E

/ [

T ' K `

! OPOC7 /

&P- 5 P

!

`$2

$ "

[

P / 5 / 1

= R ƒI k K[?

$87 ]

& $7 t i [

P 9 Z

= S

* & 8 8 T[?

(&

J

$ Eviews e k J K

"P ] 1 P

t i [

(28)

-&- P 9

! Q A ,1 +

$M1 "

! P K

!

=

^ [?

V J8 QP8

! R J!

J 2 0 Z 6

* & 8 6 (%

Z

&(

C V8 ,

r!

Y

% & Q

"2

!

>)P.

P /

S [

P

f+F+ 7 -

= R ƒI k K ^L $ 6 (ˆ[?

E P8 / #, Z B g *$7

t i [

P 3 g F-

! '%

= [?

3 %$

$ [

P 1 Q /

“ "

=

^ [?

V 8 8 @m ^ (C 6

_ H 6

! 2 J 0 Y I P gP

% F /

) 3 0' O J g "

/ 4 "B +

% $ [

P J 1 /

&F8%

$8

! WMX- /

= R 8[?

n(+ ^8 H Š k K

6 J8

%+ 52T

! $ 2 ^ N

/

; " * $F GF $4 #7 &W 7 [

P / 1 /MXOP ;"5

=

^ 8 8(# # QL [?

0 6 2 ! 6 k K^!%+ 6 P I

gP

/ F %

< : ; 0' "

=

>

[?

P

$`

/

F 9$ )y H

+H

!

C2 3 H

P+

!

= [?

V

^J!%+ 8

^J (C

8 @m 6 2 ! 6 _ H 0

Y P 1 g F OP4 $F GF $4 0' HI /

P 'P HI / gP

0F $4 N HI /

8 [

P j+ /

= R k K[?

$87 ] t i 3 [

P jP+ /

= R _ H V8 [?

6

! C( P O T 2 0

"P ] 1 P

t i [

P / +j +

&#

+ /

= S [?

V 2/

! _ H R 6 8 (& I 6 J *8 R

! 2 9c

0 0 Y 1 g F O4 /

' HI / 1 * 4 / ' e^

[

P

& $2 W _+€ ! $, E @ !

8 *

= R

?[

& M

$2 &

&

eS^

[

P

/ ) GF $4 E

= [?

P T W +F / E PW- X $P 4

&P $2 P

!

- W4 + T

! +F /

!$O2 /W E W- X [

Referensi

Dokumen terkait

2006 Socioeconomic differences in incident depression in older adults: The role of psychosocial factors, physical health status, and behavioral factor, Journal of Psychosomatic

• Maeve MK 2000 “Speaking Unavoidable Thruths: Understanding Early Childhood Sexual Physical” Violence Among Women in Prison.. Isues mnt Health