تحلیل تاثیر زیرساخت های حمل و نقل بر تمرکز فعالیت های صنعتی در استان ‏های ایران

ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﻫ

ﻱ

ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ

ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻱﺯﺎﻨﻬﺷ ﻪﻟﺍ ﺡﻭﺭ ،1

ﻲﻧﺎﺒﺷ ﻥﺎﻘﻫﺩ ﺍﺮﻫﺯ

1

* 2

1 . ﺯﺍﺮﻴﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻳﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ ،

rshahnazi@shirazu.ac.ir

2 . ﺯﺍﺮﻴﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﺸﻧﺍﺩ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺎﻳﺩﺎﺘﺳﺍ ،

zahra_dehghan2003@yahoo.com

:ﺖﻓﺎﻳﺭﺩ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 05

/ 08 / 1394 :ﺵﺮﻳﺬﭘ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ 04

/ 08 / 1395

ﻩﺪﻴﻜﭼ ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻲﻳﺎﻀﻓ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﻋ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

، ﻭ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﻭ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ

ﻥﺎﻜﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ﻭ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻲﺑﺎﻳ

ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻪـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻚـﻳ ﺭﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﺰـﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺮـﺑ ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞـﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ

ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻳﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

. ﻪﺑ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻱﺮـﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎـﺒﻣ ﺍﺪـﺘﺑﺍ ﻑﺪـﻫ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻴﺘﺳﺩ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ

ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﻥﺎـﻴﺑ ﻲـﺿﺎﻳﺭ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﺠﻨﺳ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻲﺣﺍﺮﻃ

28 ﻝﺎـﺳ ﻲـﻃ ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ

1390 -

1380 ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﻠﻧﺎـﭘ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺡﻼـﺻﺍ ﺭﺎـﻴﻌﻣ ﻑﺍﺮـﺤﻧﺍ ﺮﮔﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ .

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎﺘﻧ ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﺎﺑ ﺪﻫﺩ

ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ) ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞـﻤﺣ ﻱﺎـﻫ ـﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻪ

ﻱ .ﺪﺑﺎﻳﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱﺎﻫﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ (ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﺒﻃ ﻪﻘ ﺪﻨﺑ ﻱ :JEL ، L91 ،R12 . C33

ﻩژﺍﻭ ﻱﺪﻴﻠﻛ ﻱﺎﻫ :

ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

، ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺰـﻛﺮﻤﺗ ،

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻳﻮﻠﺑﺎﺗ ، ﻲﻠﻧﺎﭘ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺡﻼﺻﺍ ﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﺍ ﺮﮔﺩﺭﻭﺁﺮﺑ

* ﺪﻨﺴﻳﻮﻧ . ﻩ ﻱ ﺴﻣ ﺌ ،ﻝﻮ 07136134438

1 - ﻪﻣﺪﻘﻣ ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

، ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻲﺘﺨﺳ ﻭ ﺖﻟﻮﻬﺳ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ،

ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ، ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ -

ﺭﺎﻛ ، ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ، ﻲﻣ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ﻭ ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ﺪﻨﻛ

. ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻬﺟﻮﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺚﺤﺑ

ﺭﺩ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﺶﻘﻧ ﺎﺑ ﻌﺳﻮﺗ

ﻪ ﻱ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺶﻴﺑ

ﺮﺗ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺑﺮﺠﺗ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ

ﻩﺪﺷ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺘﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻩﺯﻮﺣ ﺪـﻧﺍ

، ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻛﺪـﻧﺍ ﺕﺎـﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﺎـﻣﺍ

ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻪﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺭﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤ ﺪﻧﺍ

.

ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﺪـﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﻱ ﻌـﺳﻮﺗ

ﻪ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻢـﻬﻣ ﻲﻋﻮـﺿﻮﻣ ﺍﺭ ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞـﻤﺣ

ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ ﻲﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﻲﻨﻴﺑ ﺶﻴﭘ ﻭ

ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻪ ﻱ ﻞـﻤﺣ

ﻲﻣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ

، ﺶﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﻱﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻚﻳ ،

ﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ

ﻲﻣ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ1

ﺪـﺘﻓﺍ ﻝﻮـﻫ) ،2

2004 ﺰﻠﺒﻴﻨﻳﻭ ؛ ،3

2006 ( . ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻲﻠﻴﺧ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

، ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻪـﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ

ﺿﺮﻋ ﻪ ﻱ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻠﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺎﺸﺗﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ .

ﺎـﺗ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻨﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻩﺪﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ

ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﻲﻠﺤﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ

، ﺎﻣﺍ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺎـﺑ ـﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻪ ﻱ ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞـﻤﺣ ،

ﻝﺎـﺼﺗﺍ ﻲﺣﺍﻮـﻧ

ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻭ ﺪﺑﺎﻳ

ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲـﻠﺤﻣ ﻱﺎـﻫﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﻣﺪـﺧ ﻪـﺋﺍﺭﺍ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻩﺪﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ

ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺪﻧ . ﻥﺪﺷ ﻪﺷﻮﺧ ﺎﺑ ،

ﻲﻣ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻊـﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﻳﻮﺟ ﻪﻓﺮﺻ ﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﻧﺍﻮﺗ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ4

ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ ﺪـﻨﻣ .

ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻪﻛ) ﻲﻠﺤﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻪﺑ

ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﻕﺎـﻔﺗﺍ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ

(ﺩﻮﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﺘﻓﺍ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺎﺒﻗﺭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ

ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﻩﺰـﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﻭ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻡﺎﺣﺩﺯﺍ ﺮﭘ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻫﺭ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭﻮﺘﺴﺳﺁ) ﺩﺭﻭﺁ

،5

2010 ( .

1. Re-Dispersion 2. Holl

3.Venables

4.

ﻪﻓﺮﺻ ﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺖﺒﺜﻣ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﻳﻮﺟ ﻪ

ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻲﻳﺎﻀﻓ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ

.ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻪﻓﺮﺻ ﻉﻮﻧ ﻭﺩ ﻪﻓﺮﺻ :ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﻳﻮﺟ

ﻪﻛ ؛ﻥﺪﺷ ﻲﻠﺤﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﻳﻮﺟ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻚﻳ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻱ

ﺘﺧﻭﺪﻧﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻢﻫ ﺭﺎﻨﻛ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺭﻭﺎﺠﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻪ

ﻱ ﺯﺍ ﻙﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ،ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﺰﻳﺭﺮﺳ ،ﺺﺼﺨﺘﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ

ﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻩ ﻱ ﺖﺻﺮﻓ ﻭ ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻭ ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﻣﺎﻌﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﺖﻌﻔﻨﻣ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻩﺮﻴﺠﻧﺯ ﻝﻮﻃ ﺭﺩ ﻞ ﻭ ﺪﻧﺮﺑ

ﻪﻓﺮﺻ ﻥﺁ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ؛ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧ ﺮﻬﺷ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻲﻳﻮﺟ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻭ ﺎﺒﻗﺭ ،ﻙﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻱ

ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﺑ ﻩﺮﻬ ﺪﻨﻣ ﻲﻣ ﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﻙﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﻊﺑﺎﻨﻣ .ﺪﻧ ﺍﻮﺗ

ﻧ ،ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﻭ ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﺰﻛﺍﺮﻣ ،ﻲﻜﻳﺰﻴﻓ ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﻞﻣﺎﺷ ﺪﻨ

ﺕﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ ،ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﺘﺧﻭﺪﻧﺍ ﺷﺎﺑ ﻱژﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﻭ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﮓﻨﻫﺮﻓ ،ﺕﺎﻋﻼﻃﺍ ،ﺶﻧﺍﺩ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﺩﻮﻬﺸﻣﺎﻧ

ﻨ .ﺪ 5. Accetturo

ﺳ ﺌ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻟﺍﻮ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺡﺮﻄﻣ

ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺩﻮـﺷ ﻥﺎﺘـﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻳﺁ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ

ﻥﺍﺮـﻳﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﻪﻛ) ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﺮـﺑ (ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺁ ﺖﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﺼﺧﺎﺷ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ

ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﻫ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ

؟ﺖﺳﺍ

2 - ﻲﻠﺒﻗ ﺕﺎﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ) ﺎﻧﺎﻳﻭﺎﺗﺍ ﻭ ﻦﻴﺗﺭﺎﻣ 1999

(،

ﺭﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﻚـﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱ

ﺪﺷﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ

ﺍﺯ ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻭ ﻪ ﺩﺍﺩ

ﻩ ﺍ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧ ﻪ

ﻱ ـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﻪ

ﻱ

ﻞﻤﺣ ﻭﻼﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻩ

ﻱ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺮﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﻪـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ﻊﻧﺎﻣ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺍ

ﺩﻮـﺷ ، ﻖـﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ

ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻲﻳﺎﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﺖﻴﻌﻗﻮﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻭ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺎﻫ

ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ .

) ﺎﻧﺎﻳﻭﺎﺗﺍ ﻭ ﻦﻴﺗﺭﺎﻣ 2001

(،

ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﺎﺑ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﻊـﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﻭ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻩ ﺍ

ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻧ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻚﻳ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻞﻘﻧ ،

ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻭ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺍﺭ ﺎـﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻖﻳﻮﺸﺗ ﺪﻨﻛ

.

1ﻝﻮﻫ ) 2004 (،

ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﺮﺛﺍ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍ ﻲﻳﻮﺟ ﻪﻓﺮﺻ ﻭ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

(ﺪﻟﻮﺗ) ﺲﻴﺳﺎﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﺗﺮﭘ ﺭﺩ ﻐ ﻲﻃ ﻝﺎ ﻝﺎـﺳ ﺎـﻫ ﻱ 1986 ﺎـﺗ 1997 ﺭﺩ

13 ﻭ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ 9

ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﻲﺗﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪ ﺍ

ﺪﻧ .ﻧ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻌﻟﺎﻄﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺞﻳﺎﺘ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ

ﺶﻴﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺍﺮﮔﺭﺰﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻚﻳﺩﺰﻧ ﺭﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺎﻫ

.

) ﺰﻠﺒﻴﻨﻳﻭ 2007

(،

ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻞـﻴﻠﺤﺗ :ﻱﺮﻬـﺷ ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞـﻤﺣ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻳﺯﺭﺍ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ

ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﻭ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺭﻮﻀﺣ ﺎﺑ ﺖﻌﻔﻨﻣ ﺁ

ﺪﻣ ، ﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪ

ﻪـﻛ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﮔ ﻲﻣ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﻲﺟﺭﺎﺧ ﺕﺍﺮﺛﺍ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺪـﻨﻛ ﺖﻳﻮﻘﺗ

ﺮﻬﺷ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﻲﻟﺎﮕﭼ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺮﺑ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﺮﻬﺷ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .

ﻡﺎﻫﺍﺮﮔ )2

2007 (،

ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ،

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻭ ﻱﺭﻭ ﻪ

ﺬﮔ ﻭ ﻞـﻤﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍ

ﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻘﻧ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩ

ﻪﻳﺎﻣﺮﺳ ﻪﻛ ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞـﻤﺣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺭﺍﺬﮔ

، ﺱﺮﺘـﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺎـﮕﭼ

ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺎﻳ ﺮﻔﺳ ﻥﺎﻣﺯ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻪ ﻱ ﻲﻣ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺮﻔﺳ ﺮـﺑ ﻲـﺘﺒﺜﻣ ﺮـﺛﺍ ﻭ ﺪـﻫﺩ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺯﺍ ﻲﺷﺎﻧ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ .

ﺎﻧﺎﻳﻭﺎﺗﺍ ﻭ ﺍﻭﺮﻨﻴﻣ )3

2009 (،

ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻱﺍ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﻮـﺌﺗ ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻥﺭﻭﺩ ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻱﺎـﻳﺍﺰﻣ :ﺍﺯ

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻭ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻧ ﻞﻘﻧﻭ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸ ﺭﺩ ﺖﺧﺎﺳ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﻪ ﻱ ﺰـﻛﺮﻣ ،

1. Holl 2. Graham

3. Minerva & Ottaviano

ﻲﻣ ﺖﻳﻮﻘﺗ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺩﻮـﺷ

، ﺖﺧﺎـﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﻮـﺒﻬﺑ ﺽﻮـﻋ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻣﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺎـﻫ

ـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻪ ﻱ

ﻥﻮﻣﺍﺮﻴﭘ ، ﻲﻣ ﺭﺮﺿ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﻭ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺎﺳﺭ

.

1ﻱﺮﻓ ) 2014 (،

ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲـﺳﺭﺮﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺍ ﺮﻴﺛﺄـﺗ

ﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻪ ﻱ ﻜﺒـﺷ ﻪ ﻱ ﺮـﺑ ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞـﻤﺣ

ﺭﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺭﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺘﺧﺍﺩﺮﭘ ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺁ

ﻪ ﺖـﺳﺍ . ﻲـﻣ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺞﻳﺎـﺘﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﺪـﻫﺩ

ﻌـﺳﻮﺗ ﻪ ﻱ

ﻪﻜﺒﺷ ﻲﻳﺎﻀﻓ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ

ﺎﻫ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱ ﺶﻘﻧ

ﻤﻬﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺎﻔﻳﺍ ﻲ ﺪﻨﻛ

.

3 - ﻱﺮﻈﻧ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﻣ

ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﻥﺎﻜﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻬﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﺭﺍﺮﻘﺘـﺳﺍ ﻭ ﻲﺑﺎـﻳ

ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺭﺩ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

. ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻪﺘﺳﺩ ﻭﺩ ﻥﺎﻜﻣ ﺎﺑ

ﻲﺑﺎﻳ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻭ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﺎـﻫ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ . ﺭﺩ ﺘﺳﺩ ﻪ ﻱ ﻝﻭﺍ ، ﻥﺎﻜﻣ ﻲـﻣ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎـﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻳ ﺘـﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ

ﻪ ﻱ ﻡﻭﺩ

ﻥﺎﻜﻣ ﻲـﻣ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺭﺎﺘﺧﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﻱﺎﻨﺒﻣ ﺮﺑ ﻲﺑﺎﻳ ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ

. ﺭﺩ ﺘـﺳﺩ ﻪ ﻱ ﻪـﻳﺮﻈﻧ ﻝﻭﺍ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻥﺎﻜﻣ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻲﺑﺎﻳ ﻭ

ﻥﺎﻜﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻤﻬﻣ ﺶﻘﻧ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻲﺑﺎﻳ

ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ

2ﺩﺭﺍﺩ . ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎـﻫ ﺎـﺑ

ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﻠﺻﺎﻓ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻪ

ﻱ ﺮﻳﺎـﺳ ﺎـﺑ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻚﻳ

ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ، ﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﺭﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻭ ﻲﻣ ﺏﺍﺬﺟ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺩﻮـﺷ

ﻪﺷﻮﺧ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﻭ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻱﺍ

ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ

،ﺩﻮﺷ ﺍﺮـﻳﺯ ـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﻪ

ﻱ ﻭ ﻞـﻤﺣ

ﻚﻳ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻮﺳ

ﺒﺳ ﻲﻣ ﺐ ﺩﻮﺷ ، ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻩ ﻱ ﺎﺑ ﻩﻮﻘﻟﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺯ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ3

ﻥﺁ ﻭ ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ

ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﺏﺍﺬﺟ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺍﺰﻓ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺍﺭﺍﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱ

ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻱﻮﺳ

ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﺩﻮﺒﻬﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﺕﺎﻃﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺖﻳﻮﻘﺗ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻭ

ﻴﻟﻭﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺘﻬﺑ ﻲﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻪ

ﻮﺷ ﺰـﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﻪـﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺩ ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ

ﺎـﻫ ﻱ

ﻲﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﻣﺎﺠﻧﺍ

.

ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻭ ﺕﺭﻭﺎﺠﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﻱ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

، ﺐﺟﻮﻣ

ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ،

ﻲﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺎﻨﻓ ﺮﺸﻧ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻳﺮﺴﺗ ﻭ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮـﺷ

ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ﺍﺭ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ . ﺎﻫ ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﺎـﺑ ﻲﺣﺍﻮﻧ ﺖﻤﺳ ﻪﺑ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﻥﺍﺮﮔﺭﺎﻛ ﻭ ﻲـﻣ ﺏﺬـﺟ ﻻﺎـﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻭ ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﺍﺩﺪﺠﻣ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻲﻣ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﺩﻮﺷ . ﻪـﺧﺮﭼ ﻚﻳ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺩﺎـﺠﻳﺍ ﻱﺍ

1. Fery

2 ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﻛ . ﺘﺳﺩ ﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻪ

ﻱ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺵﻭﺭ ﻝﺪﻣ ،ﻱﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻥﺎﻜﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ،ﻦﻧﻮﺗ ﻥﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ ،ﺮﺑﻭ ﻝﺪﻣ :ﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﺗﺭﺎﺒﻋ ﻝﻭﺍ

ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ،ﻞﺻﺍﻮﻓ ﻞﻗﺍﺪﺣ ﺩﺭﺎﻧﻮﺌﻟ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻭ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

3 ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺳﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﺼﺧﺎﺷ ،ﻩﻮﻘﻟﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ . .ﺪﻫﺩ

ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻩﻮﻘﻟﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ،ﺲﻳﺮﻫ ﺍﺭi

ﻪﺑ ﺕﺭﺪﻗ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﺮﺧ

ﻳ ﺪ ﻟﻮﺗ) ﻴ ﺪ ﻠﺧﺍﺩ ﺺﻟﺎﺧﺎﻧ (ﻲ

ﺎﺳ ﻳﺮ ﺴﻘﺗ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻴ ﻢ ﻞﺻﺍﻮﻓ ﺮﺑ ﺑ ﻴ ﻦ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﺑ ﻴ ﻥﺎ ﻣ ﻲ ﺪﻨﻛ .

ﻲﻣ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑﺎﻧ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻥﺁ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻦﻳﺮﺧﺁ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻳﺎـﻀﻓ ﺪﻣﺁﺭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻓﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﻭ ﺎﻫ

ﺰﻠﺒﻴﻨﻳﻭ) ، 2006 ( . ﺍﺭ ﻪﭼ ﺮﮔﺍ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ ﺕﺭﻭﺎـﺠﻣ ﻪﻄﺑ

- ﻩﺮـﻬﺑ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲـﻳﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻱﺭﻭ

ﻪﺷﻮﺧ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻱﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﻛ

، ﻲﮔﺪـﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﻱﺎﻫﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺎﻣﺍ

ﺭﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﺑ ﺰﻴﻧ (ﺶﺨﭘ) ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ

ﺎﻫ ﺮﺛﺆﻣ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ . ﻝﻮـﺼﺤﻣ ﺭﺍﺯﺎـﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺶﻳﺍﺰـﻓﺍ ،1

ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ

ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺎﻫﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻱﺭﻭ

، ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﺖـﻓﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻭ ﻲﻏﻮﻠـﺷ ﻭ ﺪـﻣﺁ ﻭ

) ﻡﺎﺣﺩﺯﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺎﻫ ﺪـﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺶﻨﻛﺍﺮﭘ ﺮﺛﺍ ( .

) ﻞﻜـﺷ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ 1

ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ (

ﻩﺪﺷ ﺖﺳﺍ ، ﻪﺷﻮﺧ ﺎﻳ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺩﻮـﺟﻭ ﻪـﺑ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞـﻤﺣ ﻪـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺪﺷ ﻱﺍ

ﻲﻣ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﻱﺎﻫﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺮﺑ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻳﺁ ﺪﻨﺷﺎﺑ ﺐﻟﺎﻏ (ﺶﺨﭘ)

.

ﻞﻜﺷ 1 - ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺏﺬﺟ ﻭ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﻱﺎﻫﻭﺮﻴﻧ

) ﺎﻧﺎﻳﻭﺎﺗﺍ :ﻊﺒﻨﻣ 2010

(

ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﻭ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﻭﺮﻴﻧ ،2

ﻭ ﺎﺘﺴﻳﺍ

ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻱﺎﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ

ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺎﻳﻮﭘ3

.

1 ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ . ﻪ

ﻱ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﺕﺪﺷ ﺶﻳﺍﺰﻓﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺯﺍ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﺐﺟﻮﻣ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﺮﻳﺎﺳ ﻭ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻭ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻥﺎﻳﺯ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ 2. New Economics Geographic

3.

ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﻛ ،ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻞﺴﻧ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺍﺯ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺪﻧﺩﺭﻮﺧ ﺪﻧﻮﻴﭘ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻧﻴ

ﺎﻫﻭﺮ

ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ

ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻳﺎﻤﺗ ﻱﺎﻫﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺰﻳﺮﮔ ﻱﺎﻫﻭﺮﻴﻧ

ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻪ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞـﻤﺣ ﻝﺪـﻣ

ﺎـﻫ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻦـﻜﻤﻣ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎـﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﻱ

ﻚﻴﻓﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﻨﻛ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ1

. ﻉﻮﺿﻮﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ،

ﻪﻛ ﺪﻴﻨﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ

ـﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﺘﺷﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻨ

ﻭ ﺖﻌﻨـﺻ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺭﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺮـﻴﻧ ﻪـﻛ ﺪ

ﻓﺮﮔ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻪﺑ ﻱﺯﺭﻭﺎﺸﻛ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘ

ﺪﻧﻮﺷ . ﺶﺨﺑ ﻭ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺍﺰﻓ ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﺎﺑ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﺶﺨﺑ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻩﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﺎﺑ ﻱﺯﺭﻭﺎﺸﻛ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ

. ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻪ

ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻻﺎﺑ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ،

ﻭﺩ ﺮـﻫ

ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﺎﻔﻛﺩﻮﺧ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻭ ﻱﺯﺭﻭﺎﺸﻛ ﺕﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ .

ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻴﻨﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪ

ﻱ ﻞـﻤﺣ

ﺪﺑﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ،

ﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻲﺗﺪﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ ﻪـﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﻪـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺪـﻴﻟ

،

ﺑ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻪ

ﺪﻧﺍ ﺪـﺳﺮﺑ ﻪﻧﺎﺘـﺳﺁ ﺪـﺣ ﻚـﻳ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺶﻫﺎﻛ ﻲﻓﺎﻛ ﻩﺯﺍ

،

ﺖﻛﺮﺣ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻚﻳ ﻪﺑ ﺖﻌﻨﺻ ﻩﺩﺮﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻣﺎﺗ ﺍﺭ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻥﺁ ﻭ ﺪـﻨﻛ

.

ﻪﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺍﺰﻓ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ،

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﺶﻫﺎـﻛ ﺎـﻫ ﺪـﺑﺎﻳ

، ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ

ﻝﺪﻣ ﺎﻫ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻱ ﻱﺍ

، ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺎﺑ ﻦﻴﻳﺎﭘ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ ،

ﻊﻳﺎﻨـﺻ ﺭﺍﺮﻘﺘـﺳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻪﺳ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ .

ﺖﺴﺨﻧ ، ﺪـﺷ ﻢﻴـﺴﻘﺗ ﻪـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﻭﺎﺴﻣ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺕﺍﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻩ

ﻭ ﻡﻭﺩ ﺖـﻟﺎﺣ

ﺩﻮﺷ ﺮﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺕﺍﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻡﻮﺳ .

ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻞﺑﺎﻗ

ﻲﺑ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻚﻳ ﺖﺴﺨﻧ ﺒﺛ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺎ

، ﺰـﻠﺒﻴﻨﻳﻭ) ﺪﻨﺘـﺴﻫ ﺕﺎﺒﺛﺎﺑ ﻱﺪﻌﺑ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻭﺩ ﻲﻟﻭ ،

2006 ( .

) ﻞﻜﺷ 2 ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺭﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻚﻴﻓﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﺪﻨﻳﺁﺮﻓ ( ﺪﻫﺩ

.

ﻞﻜﺷ 2 - ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﺭﺍﺮﻘﺘﺳﺍ

ﺰﻠﺒﻴﻨﻳﻭ :ﻊﺒﻨﻣ ،

2006

1.

ﻩژﺍﻭ ﻑﻭﺮﺘﺳﺎﺗﺎﻛ ﻲﺳﺭﺎﻓ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺮﻈﺘﻨﻣﺮﻴﻏ ،ﻲﻧﺎﻬﮔﺎﻧ ﺶﻬﺟ ﻱﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻳﺩ ﻲﺳﺭﺎﻓ ﺕﻻﺎـﻘﻣ ﻲـﺧﺮﺑ ﺭﺩ

ﺩﻮﺷ

ﺩﻮﺧ ﺯﺍ ،ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ،ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻴﻧ ﺎﻳﻮﮔ ﻥﺍﺪﻨﭼ ﻪﻛ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻪﻤﻠﻛ

ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻊﻳﺎﻨﺻ ﻢﻬﺳ

A ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻱﻩ ﺪﻨﻫﺩﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﺘﺳﻮﻴﭘ ﻁﻮﻄﺧ

ﻦﻴﭼ ﻂﺧﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎﭘ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺎﻫ

ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻩ ﻱ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ

ﺭﺍﺪﻳﺎﭘﺎﻧ 1

5 / 0

0

ﺏﻮﭼﺭﺎﭼ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﻮﮕﻟﺍ ﻪﻣﺍﺩﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻝﺪﻣ

ﺎﻫ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺭﻭﺁ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱ

ﺖﺳﺍ

، ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﻁﺎﺒﺗﺭﺍ ﻥﺁﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﺺﺨﺸﻣ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺎﺑ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

. ﺽﺮـﻓ

ﻭﺩ ﺭﻮﺸﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻴﻨﻛ ﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﻪ ﻱ ) 1 ﻭ ( ) 2 ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ( . 1

ﻥﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺍﺪﺘﺑﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ

ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ . ﻱﺎﻫﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﻪ ﻱ ) 2 ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ * ﺎﺑ ( ﺪﻧﺍ

. ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﺭﺍﺪـﻘﻣ ﻚـﻳ ﻪـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺮـﻫ

) ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻪﻛ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ (L

ﻲﻤﻧ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﺎﺠﺑﺎﺟ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺪﻨﻧﺍﻮﺗ

، ﻪﻛ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺎـﺑ

ﺽﺮﻓ

، ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺍﺪﺟ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ .2

ﻲﻣ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺪـﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ

) ﻦﮕﻤﻫ ) ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻭ (Y

ﻲـﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺶﻳﺎـﻤﻧ ﺐـﻛﺮﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻚﻳ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ (D

ﺩﻮـﺷ ،

ﺩﻮﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ .

ﻤﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ، ﻲﻣ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻫ ﻲﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺳﺭ

ﻨ ﺪ . ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﺐﻛﺮﻣ ﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﻩ ﻱ ﺭﺍﺮـﻗ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﺰﻴﻧ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻄﺳﺍﻭ ﺩﺮـﻴﮔ

.

ﺗ ﻚﻳ ﻉﺍﺪﺑﺍ) ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ (ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻉﻮﻨ

ﺩﻮﺷ . ﺖـﺒﺛ ﻪـﺑ ﻱﺭﻭﺁﻮﻧ ﺮﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺎﺠﻨﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺳﺭ ﻲﺑ ﺮﻤﻋ ﻉﺍﺮﺘﺧﺍ ﺖﺒﺛ ﻖﺣ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺖﻳﺎﻬﻧ .

ﻉﺍﺮﺘﺧﺍ ﺖﺒﺛ ﻖﺣ

ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻚﻳ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﻪ ﻱ ) 1 ﺎﻳ ( ﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ) 2 ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﻭﺮﻓ ( ﺩﻮﺷ

.

ﻪﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ،

ﺮﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺎﺠﻨﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ـﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﻪ ﻱ 1 ﻲـﻣ ﺰـﻛﺮﻤﺘﻣ ﻢﻳﻮـﺷ

.

ﻡﺮـﻓ ﻪـﺑ ﻭ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﻲﺒـﺴﻧ ﻱﺰـﻳﺮﮔ ﻚـﺴﻳﺭ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ ﻩﺪـﻨﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺕﺎﺤﻴﺟﺮﺗ ﻲﻣ ﻚﻳ ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﺶﺸﻛ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻲﻤﺘﻳﺭﺎﮕﻟ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻲﻣ :ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

) 1 (

dt e ) ) t ( Y ) t ( D log(

U^{i Ut}

f D D

³0

1

ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻥﺎﺤﺟﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ U

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻦﮕﻤﻫ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣY

. ﻥﺍﻮـﻨﻋ ﻪـﺑ ﻦﮕﻤﻫ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺮﮕﺷﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ

، ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﻚـﻳ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣD

ﻭ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻓﺮﮔ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺭﺩ ﺐﻛﺮﻣ

) , (01



ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﻪـﺘﻓﺎﻳ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﺧﺍ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﻬﺳ D

ﺖـﺳﺍD

.

ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺰﺘﻴﻠﮕﻴﺘـﺳﺍ ﻭ ﺖﻴـﺴﻜﻳﺩ ﺯﺍ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﭘ ﻪﺑ D

)3

1977 ( ، ﺩﺍﺪـﻌﺗ ﻞﻣﺎـﺷ ﺩﻮـﺟﻮﻣ ﺕﺎـﻋﻮﻨﺗ

ﻲﻣ :ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪﻛ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

) 2 (

V V

³

1 1 1

0 1 1

] di ) t ( D [ ) t ( D

) t ( N

i i

1.

ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺖﻤﺴﻗ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻦﺘﺷﻮﻧ ﺭﺩ

، ﻦﻴﺗﺭﺎﻣ ) ﺎﻧﺎﻳﻭﺎﺗﺍ ﻭ 2001 ( ﺎﺑ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻋ ﻭ

.ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ

2.

ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻜﻳ ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻥﺭﺪﻣ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻩ ﻱ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ،ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺖﻴﻌﻤﺟ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ ﻲﻣ ﺏﺬﺟ ﻲﻘﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺭﺪﻣ ﻩ

ﻱ ﻴﻌﻤﺟ .ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﻱﺮﺘﺸﻴﺑ ﺖ 3. Dixit & Stiglitz

ﻻﺎﺑ ﻝﻮﻣﺮﻓ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ 1

! V ﺖﺳﺍ . ﺰﻳﺎـﻤﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺘﻣ ﻭ ﻲﺘﻤﻴﻗ ﺶﺸﻛV

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ .

) t (

ﺘﻗﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺱﺮﺘﺳﺩ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻨﺗ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ ﻞﻛN

ﻭﺩ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺩﺎﺼ ـﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﻪ ﻱ ) 1 ﻭ (

) 2 ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ( .

) t (

) ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﺶﺸﻛ ﺎﺑ ﻥﺭﺪﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻲﻓﺮﺼﻣ ﺪﺒﺳ D

(CES

ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ) t ( D_i ﻥﺭﺪﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ i

.

ﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻪ

ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺎﻤﻧ (ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ) ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ـﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﻪ ﻱ 1 ) ( E

ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪـﺑ

:ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ) 3

¦ (

¦ ^N

n j

j j n

i i

iD P D Y

P E

1 1

ﻛ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻪ ﻚﻳ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑY

ﻭ Pi

ﻉﻮﻨﺗ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺍi

ـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ) 1 ﻭ (

Pj

ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ

ﻉﻮﻨﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻡﺍj

ﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ) 2 ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ ( ﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻨﺗ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺗ n

ﻪ ﻱ ) 1 ( ﻲﻣ ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ

ﻭ

n*

n

N

. ) ﻥﻮﺴﻠﺋﻮﻣﺎﺳ ﺯﺍ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﭘ ﻪﺑ 1954

ﺪـﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻱﺎـﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﺍ ﻭ (

ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻡﺮﻓ ﻪﺑ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻪ

ﻱ ) گﺮﺑ ﺲﻳﺁ

Ice berg

1( ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ﻦـﻳﺍ ﻪـﺑ

) ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ (D

، W !1 ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ـﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﻪ ﻱ ) 1 (

ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻚﻳ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﺎﺗ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻝﺎﺳﺭﺍ ـﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﻪ ﻱ 2 ﺪـﺳﺮﺑ

W

گﺭﺰﺑ ﺮﺗ ﺪﻨﻫﺩ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻩ

ﻱ ﻞﻤﺣ ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮﺗﺪـﺑ ﻞـﻘﻧﻭ

. ﻖـﺒﻃ ﻝﺪـﻣ ﺎـﻫ ﻱﺎـﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﻱ

ﻪﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻦﮕﻤﻫ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻪ ﻱ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻭ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺖﺴﻴﻧ ﻞﻘﻧ

.

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺪﻳﺩ ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺷ

ﻥﺍﺮﮔﺭﺎـﻛ ﻩﺭﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ

، ﺝﺭﺎـﺨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﺪـﺻﺭﺩ D )

t (

ﻭ ﻥﺭﺪـﻣ ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﺍﺭ E

D 1

ﺪﺻﺭﺩ ﺝﺮﺧ ﻲﺘﻨﺳ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮﺑ ﺍﺭ ﻥﺎﺸﺟﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻣ

ﺪﻨﻨﻛ . ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮـﺑ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﻢﻬﺳ

ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺭﺪﻣ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ

ﺎﻫ ﻲـﻣ ﻊـﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺎﻬﻧﺁ ﻱﻭﺭ ﺮﺑ ﻥﺭﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﺒﺴﻧ ﻱ ﺩﻮـﺷ

. ﻊﺑﺎـﺗ

ﻥﺭﺪﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﺘﻨﺳ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻭi

ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑY

:2

) 4 (

) t ( E ) t ( P

) t ( D_i pⁱ _1V^VD

) t ( E ) ( Y 1D

1.

ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﻼﺜﻣ ﺪﻳﺎﺑ ﺪﺳﺮﺑ ﻩﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻚﻳ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ گﺮﺑ ﺲﻳﺁ 1.5

ﻦﻳﺍ .ﺩﻮﺷ ﻝﺎﺳﺭﺍ ﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ 5

/ 0 ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻲﻓﺎﺿﺍ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻪ

ﻱ ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺎﻳ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ .ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﮕﻳﺩ ﻱﺎﻫ

2.

ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺯﺍ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻊﺑﺍﻮﺗ ﻩ

ﻱ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ) ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺎﻤﻧ ﻪ

ﻱ 1 ﻄﺑﺍﺭ) ﻪﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ( ﻪ

ﻱ 3 (

ﺑﻪ ﻲﻣ ﺖﺳﺩ .ﺪﻳﺁ

ﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮـﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺭﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﺺﺧﺎﺷ ﻪ ﺎـﻧﺎﻳﻭﺎﺗﺍ ﻭ ﺍﻭﺮـﻨﻴﻣ]

، 2009 ؛

ﺎﻧﺎﻳﻭﺎﺗﺍ ﻭ ﻦﻴﺗﺭﺎﻣ ،

2001 ﻭ 1999 ﻪﺴﻴﺗ ﻭ ﺎﺘﻴﺟﻮﻓ ؛ ،

2003 :[

) 5 (

V V

³ ¹

1 0

1 di] ) t ( p [ ) t ( P

) t ( N

i

i

ﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﺖﺒﺴﻧ ﻢﻴﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺎﺑ ﻪ

ﻱ :ﻢﻳﺭﺍﺩ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻦﻴﺑ

) 6 (

U ) t ( ) r t ( E

) t ( E

ﻪﺿﺮﻋ ﺖﻤﺳ ﺭﺩ ،

ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻦﮕﻤﻫ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻩ

ﻱ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻻﺎـﻛ ﻦـﻳﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ .

ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ

ﻣ ﺖﻴﻠﻛ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻭ ﻲﮔﺩﺎﺳ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺘﺳﺎﻛ ﻉﻮﺿﻮ

، ﻲﻣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﺮـﻫ ﻪـﻛ ﺩﻮـﺷ

ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻚﻳ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻲﺘﻨﺳ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ

، ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ، :ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺩﻮﺳ

) 7 (

L P Y L P Y P TC

TR _{Y L L}

Y

S

ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻪﻛ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺭ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﻩﺩﺎﺳ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮﮕـﺷﺭﺎﻤﺷ ﻱﻻﺎﻛY

، ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎـﻨﺑ

ﻩﺪﺷ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻧ ﻚﻳ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ،

ﻁﺮﺷ ﻖﺒﻃ ﺖـﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻂﻳﺍﺮـﺷ ﺖﺤﺗ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺩﻮﺳ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ

ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻚﻳ ﻲﺘﻨﺳ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺮﻫ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻭ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ،

L

Y P

ﻲﻣ P ﻪﻛ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ ﻭ ﺩﻮﺷ

Y 1 ﺖﺳﺍ P ، ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ

L 1 ﻲﻣ P ﻮﺷ ﺩ .

ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻴﻨﭽﻤﻫ ـﺑ ﺩﺎـﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻞـﻛ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻨﺳ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ

ﻪ ﺪـﻧﺍ ﺯﺍ ﻩ ﻱ

ﺖﺳﺍ گﺭﺰﺑ ﻲﻓﺎﻛ ،ﺑ

ﻪ ﻪﻧﻮﮔ ﺎﻫﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻲﻣﺎـﻤﺗ ﻱﻮﮕﺨـﺳﺎﭘ ﻪـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻚـﻳ ﺭﺩ ﺎﻬﻨﺗ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﻛ ﻱﺍ

ﺖﺴﻴﻧ . ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﻀﺗ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ

، ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻲﺘﻨـﺳ ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻪﺑ . ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻲﺘﻨﺳ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﭻﻴﻫ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻥﻭﺭﺩ ﻭ ﻦﻴﺑ

ﻪ ﻱ ﻤﺣ ﻲﻠﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞ

ﻲﻣ ﻪﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ

، ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻲﻧﺎﺴﻜﻳ ﻪﺑ ﺮﺠﻨﻣ ﺮﻣﺍ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺮـﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺰﻤﺘـﺳﺩ ﻭY

ﻲﻣ ﺩﺮﮔ ﺩ . ﺱﺎـﻴﻘﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻩﺪﻨﻳﺍﺰﻓ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻱﺭﺎﺼﺤﻧﺍ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪﻧﻮﺷ

. ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺭﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻭ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﻱﺎﻫ

. ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻱﺎـﻫ

ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ

ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﺪـﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺪـﺣﺍﻭ ﺮﻫ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﺰﻳﺎـﻤﺘﻣ

ﺪـﺣﺍﻭE

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻡﺯﻻ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ .

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻚﻳ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﺎﺠﻨﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﻪﻛ ﺎﺠﻧﺁ ﺯﺍ

، ـﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻪ

ﻱ

ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺮﻫ ﻲﻣE

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﻭ ﻉﺍﺮـﺘﺧﺍ ﺖـﺒﺛ ﻖﺣ ﺪﻳﺮﺧ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺖﺑﺎﺛ

ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﺩﺰﻤﺘﺳﺩ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻮﺑﺮﻣ ﻥﺁ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﻛ ﻱﻭﺮﻴﻧ

. ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﺮـﻫ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻪـﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﺖـﻤﻴﻗ

ﺩﻮﺳ ﻥﺩﺮﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﺯﺍ ﻪﻛ ﻥﺭﺪﻣ ﻪﺑ

ﺖﺳﺩ ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺁ ، ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ

*

p p EV1 V

ﻲﻣ .ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﺩﻮﺳ

ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﺗﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻩ

ﻱ :ﺎﺑ ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ

) 8 (

1 px x Ex

S E

V

ﻪﻛ ﺿﺮﻋ x

ﻪ ﻱ ﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻪ ﻱ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻲﻋﻮﻧ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ

ﻩ ﻱ ﻝﺩﺎـﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻞـﻤﻋ ﺱﺎـﻴﻘﻣ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﺖـﺑﺎﺛ ﻲﻫﺩﺯﺎﺑ ﻭ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺖﺑﺎﻗﺭ ﻂﻳﺍﺮﺷ ﺖﺤﺗ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻉﻮﻨﺘﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﺸﻨﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ ﻲـﻣ

ﺪـﺷﺎﺑ . ﺪـﺷﺭ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﺮـﻛﺫ ﻪـﺑ ﻡﺯﻻ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﻊﺒﻨﻣ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ (ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻨﺗ ﺪﺷﺭ) ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ،

ﻪـﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ ﺶـﺨﺑ ﻦـﻳﺍ

ﺪﺷ ﻪﺘﻔﮔ ﻢﻫ ﻼﺒﻗ ،

ﻩﺪﻳﺍ ﻲﻣ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ ﻲﻳﺎﻫ ﻲﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻨﻛ

ﺖـﺒﺛ ﻖـﺣ ﺲﭙﺳ ﻭ ﺪﺳﺮﺑ ﺖﺒﺛ ﻪﺑ ﺪﻧﺍﻮﺗ

ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻣ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻉﻭﺮﺷ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻉﺍﺮﺘﺧﺍ ﻪﺑ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﻪﻛ ﻪﻴﺣﺎﻧ ﻭﺩ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺁ ﻉﺍﺮﺘﺧﺍ ﻲﻣ ﻪﺘﺧﻭﺮﻓ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺩ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ

. ) ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﻪـﺑ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺩﺭﺍﺩ ﺯﺎـﻴﻧ (D

ﻪﻛ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻨﺗ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺍ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ ﺶﺸﻛ

) (V

ﺶﺸﻛ ﺪﻨﻧﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺎﮔﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮﺼﻣ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻲﻨﻴﺸﻧﺎﺟ .

ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪـﺑﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺭﺩ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻉﻮﻨﺗ ﻚﻳ ﺩﺎﺠﻳﺍ

ﺭﺩ ﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ) 1 ﺎـﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ( ]

Z n nZ ][

[

F _i ^*W _j

V

EV ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ 1

Zi

ﻭ

Zj

ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ

ﺯﺍ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﻪ ﻱ 1 ﻭ 2 ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﻪ ﻱ ﻥﺩﺮـﻛ ﻞﻗﺍﺪـﺣ ﻖـﻘﺤﻣ ﻚـﻳ

ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺪﻴﻗ ﻪﺑ ﻁﻭﺮﺸﻣ ﺯﺎﻴﻧ ﺩﺭﻮﻣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻩﺩﺎﻬﻧ ﺪﻴﻗ ﻪﻛ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﺎﻫ

ﻥﺎﺸﻧ

ﻲﻣ ﻩﺩﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ :

) 9

V (

V V

P

K ^{1 1}

1 1 1

1 1 n Z ]

nZ [

N _i ^* _j

ﻦﻳﺍ ﻞﺣ ﺎﺑ ﻪﻟﺄﺴﻣ

، ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺗ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻌﺳﻮﺗ

ﻪ ﻱ ﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻪ ﻱ 1

:ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ) 10 (

V P V

V V V

PW G K G

KN (n n )¹ , Z N (n n )¹

Z_j ^* _i ^*

ﻪﻛ ) , (01

1 

W G ^V ﻲﻣ

ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﻪـﺑ (ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ) ﻪﻌﺳﻮﺗ ﻭ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺗ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ

:ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ) 11 (

V V

P J J G K

V

EV ₁¹ 1 ₁¹

1] N N [ ( ) ]

[ F

N ﻪﻛ J n ، ﺭﺩ ﻩﺪﺷ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻨﺗ ﻢﻬﺳ ﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﻪ ﻱ 1 ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻢﻛ ﺮﺗ ﻱﻭﺎـﺴﻣ ﺎـﻳ

ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻚﻳ .

ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺰـﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﻭ ﻊـﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﻥﺍﺰـﻴﻣ ﻪﻛ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻝﺪﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻢﻬﻣ ﺮﺘﻣﺍﺭﺎﭘ ﻚﻳ J

ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺍﺭ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺪﻫﺩ

. ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﻪ ﻱ 2 :ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ

) 12

V (

V

P JJG K

V

EV ₁¹ 1 ₁¹

1] N N [ ]

[ F^*

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ . ﻪﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻑﺮﺻ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﻪﻜﻨﻳﺍ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ

ﻪ ﻱ ﻪـﻟﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ

ﻲﻣ ﺩﻮﺷ ، ﻭ ﺖﻤﻴﻗ ﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﻪ ﻱ ﻭ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻥﺎـﺴﻜﻳ ﻥﺎـﻜﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺮـﻫ ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ

ﻪﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺪﻧﻮـﺷ ﺮﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻪـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻱﻭﺎﺴﻣ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﻱ 2 )

J 1 (،

ﺭﺩ

ﺪـﺷ ﺪـﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻘﺘـﺴﻣ ﻥﺎـﺴﻜﻳ ﺕﺭﻮـﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻥﺁ

، ﺎـﻣﺍ

ﻪﭽﻧﺎﻨﭼ F*

F ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

، ﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪ

ﻱ 1 ﺲﻜﻋﺮﺑ ﻭ ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻘﺘﺴﻣ .

ﺪـﻴﻗ ﻪـﺑ ﺖﺒـﺴﻧ ﻩﺪـﻨﻨﻛ ﻑﺮـﺼﻣ ﻢﻴﻘﺘـﺴﻣﺮﻴﻏ ﺖـﻴﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﺩﺮـﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺍﺪﺣ ﻪﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺟﺩﻮﺑ ﻪ ﻱ ﻦﻳﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ ﻦﻴﺑ ﻑﻼﺘـﺧﺍ ﺎـﺑ ﻱﻭﺎﺴﻣ ﺝﺭﺎﺨﻣ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻴﺳﺭ ﻢﻴﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﻪﺠﻴﺘﻧ

ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻲﻧﺎـﻣﺯ ﻥﺎﺤﺟﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻭ ﻩﺮﻬﺑ ﺥﺮﻧ ﻦﻴﺑ

، ﻲـﻨﻌﻳ U r Eˆ Eˆ ^* ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺮﻴـﺴﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ

ﻥﺯﺍﻮﺘﻣ

* 0 Eˆ Eˆ

ﻭ ﺖﺳﺍ U ﺪﺷ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ r .

ﻳﻮﺴﺗ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻪ

ﻱ ﺭﺍﺯﺎﺑ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ (ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻱﻭﺎﺴﻣ ﻪﺿﺮﻋ)1

ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻨﺻ ﻱ ﻲﺘﻌ ، ﺶﺨﺑ ﻪﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﻣﺯ

ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﻪ ﻱ 1 ﺮﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺭﻮﻃ ﻪﺑ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ

:ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ

) 13 (ﻒﻟﺍ

] ) ( [ N

N F )]

( [ N

E ]

) ( [ N ( E ) ( x L

*

G J J EV

V J GJ G G J J EV

V D

1 1

1 1

1

) 13

] (ﺏ

) ( [ N

N F )]

( [ N

E ]

) ( [ N ( E ) ( x L

*

G J J

G EV

V J GJ G J J

G EV

V D

1 1

1 1

1

ﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻪ ﻱ ﻻﺎﺑ ، ) ﺖﺳﺍﺭ ﺖﻤﺳ ﺕﺭﺎﺒﻋ 13

ﻭ ﻒﻟﺍ 13 ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻞﻛ (ﺏ ﻩﺎـﮕﻨﺑ

ﺎـﻫ ﻱ

ﺪﻨﻨﻛﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻩ

ﻱ ﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻪ

ﻱ ) 1 ( ) ﻭ 2 ( ﻱﺎـﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﺎﺑ ﺮﺑﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻫﺩ ﻲﻣ ﻥﺎﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ

ﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻥﺎﻨﻛﺎﺳ ﻪ

ﻱ ) 1 ـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻥﺎﻨﻛﺎﺳ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ ﻪﻓﺎﺿﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻥﺭﺪﻣ ﻱﺎﻫﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ( ﻪ

ﻱ ) 2 ﻱﺍﺮـﺑ (

ﻓﺎﺿﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻭ ﻻﺎﻛ ﻥﺁ ﻪ

ﻱ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻥﺭﺪﻣ ﻱﻻﺎﻛ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻱﺎﺿﺎﻘﺗ

x . ﻭ

x*

ﺐـﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻪـﺑ

ﺿﺮﻋ ﻥﺍﺰﻴﻣ ﻪ

ﻱ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﺪﻨﻨﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻱ ﻩ

ﻱ ـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺭﺩ ﻥﺭﺪـﻣ ﻱﻻﺎـﻛ ﻪ

ﻱ ) 1 ) ﻭ ( 2 ( ﻥﺎـﺸﻧ ﺍﺭ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﻫﺩ .

1. Market Clearing

ﺩﻮﺷ ﺮﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﺮﮔﺍ

، ﺕﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ 13

ﺍ ﻭ ﻒـﻟ 13 ﺏ

ﻫﺍﻮﺧ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ :ﺩﺮﻛ ﺪ

]] ) ( [ N

N F ] ) ( [ N

N [ F )]

( [ N

E ] ) ( [ N ( E ) ( x L

*

G J J G G J J EV

V J GJ G G J J EV

V D

1 1

2 1 1

1

1

) 14 (ﻒﻟﺍ

] ) ( [ N

N F ]

) ( [ N

N [ F )]

( [ N

E ]

) ( [ N ( E ) ( x L

* *

G J J G J J

G EV

V J GJ G J J

G EV

V D

1 1

2 1 1

1

1

) 14 (ﺏ

ﻪﺑ ﻞﻴﻟﺩ ﻉﺍﺮﺘﺧﺍ ﺖﺒﺛ ﻖﺣ ﺩﺍﺯﺍ ﺕﺭﺎﺠﺗ ،

ﺯﺍﺪﻧﺍ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻭ ﺎﻫﺩﻮﺳ ﻩ

ﻱ ﻨﻴﻬﺑ ﻪ ﻱ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎـﻫ )

x

ﻭ

*

( x

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﺑﺎﺸﻣ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ

، ﻲﻨﻌﻳ

) x x ( ^*

. ﻲﻣ ﻦﻴﻤﻀﺗ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﻁﺮﺷ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺪـﻨﻛ

ﻪﻛ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ ﺎﻫ ﻩﺰﻴﮕﻧﺍ ﭻﻴﻫ ) ﺮﮔﺍ ﻪﻛ ﺪﻧﺭﺍﺪﻧ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺭﺩ ﻲﻳﺎﺠﺑﺎﺟ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻱﺍ

14 ) ﻭ (ﻒﻟﺍ 14 ﻱﺍﺮﺑ (ﺏ

:ﻢﻳﺭﺍﺩ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻞﺣ J

) 15 (

] gNF ) E E ( L )[

(

gNF ) E E ( L

*

*

D G

G J D

1

N ﻪﻛ

g N

ﺖﺳﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺪﺷﺭ ﺥﺮﻧ .

ﺩﺮﻴﮔ ﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺍ ﺶﺨﺑ ﺮﮔﺍ

ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﻝﻮﻣﺮﻓ

16 :ﺩﻮﺑ ﺪﻫﺍﻮﺧ

) 16

] (

gNF )

E E ( L )[

(

gNF ) ( ) E E ( L

*

*

2 1

1 D G

G G J D

ﻩﺪﻳﺩ ﻪﻄﺑﺍﺭ ﻭﺩ ﺮﻫ ﺭﺩ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﻲﻣ

ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺗ ﻪﻛ ﺩﻮﺷ ﻩﺎﮕﻨﺑ

ﺎﻫ (ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﺖﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ)

ﻪﻨﻳﺰﻫ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

) ﺖﺳﺍ (G .

4 - ﻝﺪﻣ ﺢﻳﺮﺼﺗ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺗ ﻱﺍﺮﺑ ﻪﻟﺎﻘﻣ ﻦﻳﺍ ﺭﺩ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺗ

ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﺎﻌﻓ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﺮﺑ ﻞﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺖﻴﻟ

) ﻪﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺯﺍ 16

ﺪـﺷﺭ ﺯﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎـﺗ ﻲﺘﻌﻨـﺻ ﺖـﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺰـﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﻥﺁ ﺭﺩ ﻪـﻛ ﺖـﺳﺍ ﻩﺪـﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ (

ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ،

ﺖﺧﺎﺳﺮﻳﺯ ﻞـﻘﻧ ﻭ ﻞﻤﺣ ﻱﺎﻫ

، ﺯﺍﺪـﻧﺍ ﻩ ﻱ ﺟ ﻲـﻨﻓ ﺶـﻧﺍﺩ ﻭ ﻪـﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺖـﻴﻌﻤ

ﺭﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺖﺳﺍ ﻪﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﺮﻫ

، ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ ﻝﺪﻣ ﻦﻳﺍﺮﺑﺎﻨﺑ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ

ﻲﻣ ﺪﺷﺎﺑ :

) Hum , n , In , gdp ( f AG

ﻦﻳﺍ ﻲﻌﺑﺎﺗ ﻡﺮﻓ ﻄﺑﺍﺭ

ﻪ ﻱ :ﺖﺳﺍ ﺮﻳﺯ ﺕﺭﻮﺻ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺘﻌﻨﺻ ﺰﻛﺮﻤﺗ

it it it

it it

it) Ln(gdp ) Ln(n ) Ln(In ) Ln(Hum )

AG (

Ln U₀U₁ U₂ U₃ U₄ H₃