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(sub systems)

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=(

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@ 9; 18 359

.(

h VR ; X! R *(

;(&J iF +* 7G $ , 7:# 7 L :+, * ? "

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1990

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#( $< &C (&5 =:! =&-,L E<,( * .

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< Nl J $ 8

8 2

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q+!

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( (&5 >H 2 [ )

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: * ; /,

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(statism)

: $E)O* 1 _ =( ( )%( &- L ;( +' $ 2 # +V

z )"(

2 . E Y%(

(Survival)

: (? ( a &8 $ +*( *r ! * ^Q_ =(& ab

z ! * W1*

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= "

(Self-help)

: $ &C( <_ ;(&- $ { W ( ; : " +*( *r =(& ab

;(&- L & # +*( , +*( = 14* +-+ $ V &y+*

(Security Dilemma)

:* y+

.

K5(

|J L( = H J* 7L &*( (&C

= X<# # 7 &% 4* = 8 ))12(

#( Y1' = }

. K5(

W* :+<"(:,( 7( $ P " ;(:E<+* ( B |J ; (&C

K5( ; * Q)<]*

! $ ; (&C 0 &8 $ #( 7:*R

s _

= }

* 3)<]* = 8

K5(

* |J (&C :++

.

s:! |J (

1 8 Q* 9n ~ a " : #( 7:V |' 8 P l B

( 7:V 7

K5(

:+ 1, $[( ( &% 4* (&C .

H 2 [ ) O

$T+! $ :, (& 8 f c, L( 8

))12(

- 5 K L 7G $ N :

8 / ; * ( 5 $,L( * -

>X*

# # # #( = 8 -2( Y*( ' &

= 8 ))12(

#( ! " # # .

H 2 [ $. &C(

* &c, ( <* W_ €O# Y*( ' 8

*( 9:,& C

Y*( ' & X,R : r

#( ))12(

(Brown, 1995, p519)

.

H 2 [ &c, $ L # $ 2 ( = 8

Y_ ;R i &F L( +*( Y•4* +-+ $ +

*

; * ( 5 $,L( * = (&5& 9 V

8 2

N % $ <_

;(&T8 $ #( <5 * N Td

$, C $ # # *& = <"( =(

:++ ?C . H 2 [ f c, $ :, ( : r >8 = <" # = 8

E =(& $, 8 CR # # &C( <_ 9= "

N % $ 9:V $<V(:, ! ( 5 $,L( *

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= " f c, +*( *r k # #( $ #( ( <H 2 [ ) )J >X* $<W, &- * c, =:+1,( 7G $ N :5 E & &1<H* ab i &F L( X+ 0 V ,R

; W*(

& UB

#(

.

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» - Z18

(Parity)

« ) 5 =& (& +4 f c, = 8

8 N :5 * 1V $ =: ) * XQ* 5 = : R

) 9 &[

1372

@ 9 55

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H 2 [ L( "&

:+, * 8

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« +4 ( 5 $,L( * Y1W* (?18 f XQ* &

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$,L( *

: :X

(Balance of threat)

:, ( : r .

9 2 1! X N :5 L( T & L( #( N T' : :X

>X* N :5 <V( ƒ&% B 9 2 1<_( $,( L y N , (&„! W ?, 9 * c, ;(

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.

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? _

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, 0 &8 * c, N

$W) H

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8 2

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$ :+,L

:+V X,R K +* ! * $ TH, = =: :X

) 97 (L& /*

1382

@ 9 135

.(

( Y )J $ ; (& YW * $+ *L 18 Y•4* $O

= 14*] 7G $ = 5 P2 . +*( [

* &# q+! L( B ;(

= 8 / < +*( : :X ; , ;( +' $ ( * 5 L( &B

* 5&V B ( E & R 9 #R :V $<V( >8 ! " 4 ( #( W1* $ :,(

8 2 :++ $)"(:* ;R &- =

(Brown, 1993)

.

, -, 18 * & 7:V $<QC N *:E* L( $ $ +<'( & L Y l $ 0 #b =( 5 $,L( * 9: R

# # * 5 & „<* PE, $

$EO+* +*( 8 / ! " # # Y)12(

=(

(:, 8 / )* +*( Y)12(

:

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/* 9

$ J (

; 1 B 8

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:,(

z

2 . , *(& B iF +* $ &c, ( -

P2 . & C N:V $ $ :+<H8 * 5 = 8

-

$ …* $

><H # K = 8

( Sub- system)

# ~ Q, J f c, <"

* E) Y)12(

:, V . 9=L I J*

L :'( 5

$EO+* ;(&- L 7 - ! = f c, <" # L( &dr<* kb* =(

k 4TF 7 ))12(

PE, + & R 8 7 &C h VR = ;( +' $ * 5 & „<* * 5 =

>c, 7:+,L >8 & L #

$EO+*

1, & ( =(

: z

3 . 2 $ &c, ( J* 2 %( & : r 7 J*

8 2

%&' f c, $

7 &" Y)12(

><H # = 8

$EO+* = 8

$)1! L( ;(&- L & # =(& /E, =(

8 7 &C * 5 =

H , Y[ 5 z

4 . 0 WQ y ( " + *L&# 7 :J* 2 $E)O* 1 _ Y%( & : r Y 2 $

$%&' ; * :+, * 8 / )"( < +*( N c_b* 9 ! " # # )"( # # = 8

(5)

! " # # & ;R = 8:* B < 41! -. ZW ;(:E * 5 M +

8 2

1, (: B ' 6 * :+

.

$8 M &V &# q+! ;( ; B TO5 f c, V B & *(

1990 y ( L SR&# 9

N :5 Nl 4* <* $ $ V _ L( † : $ * 5 & „<* ;R sb" $ l J

$%&' 8

$EO+* 9 )"( =

=(

:V ( ))12(

. f XQ* " $ , $ :+ R& ( L( : :! =:+

* (&5 Y )J $ ?y * B $ V( 7(&18 $ ( ( 5 $,L( *

& C .

&

(:< ( u #( (

$+ *L Y*( ' f 5 7:V ! * $ =L #

<# * 5 (&C ! " # #

2

8 C (&5 :V :8( " # & 9 &

.

(

:

" #

$" % & ' $ " (

J, $ T8U* 9 * 5 N 'L +* 7G $ )"( N 'L +*

=

$ ;:V Y :T s _ 7:+ (&

N ' 6 * :+<H8 ))12(

. 1X# )"( N 'L +* 9 &# q+! ; B ; *L L(

L( &</

<"( " $ ( , X! N 'L +*

#( 7 ( @ .

" $ , $ )"( N 'L +* ( L( = H

YWV

$< &C " $ ))12(

(Sarkess, 2003):,(

.

‡ &* N 'bF( *R = R &C ,(: * E EJ f y,( ; , ! 327

)5(

1V $ 7: # $y <, ( $ , &#(&# P2 . Y H, <B =( ( ? <# s _ * 5 C

7 &

-

8 P2 . s _ * 5 =

$8 $'L +* 8 1990

$!( * $E # > =:V $ :,

7 275 * Y* V ( ? <# s _ * 5 )5(

V . T8U* * 5 N 'L +* & : r

$EO+* Y H, <B $ #( )"(

=(

& # 2 " $+ *L ; R >8(& ;:V ))12(

;(&- L

$<V( (

(Fox, 2004):,(

.

* 5 N 'L +* L( = H -

$EO+* )"( T8U*

YWV '&H =(

" $ ))12(

* :,& C . * &*( ( :V Y 2 :+. L( V , :,(

: L( & (& ˆl 14* )"( N 'L +* 9 H],

* P B 8L&*

* :,

( $EO+* f 1 :+,(

:++ N Td .

…* =(&

* s N 'L +* $ ;(

& 7 V( i # = bHC :4<* )* * 5 .

E * 9f 8 7 &C

, = # 0

* f X2( )S( :,(

P]

8 7 &C :V , = # ;R $ /* = .

7:+ (? •_ ! 9f #

$, # = 8 * : :/ ; X! &# &# ( N 'L +* ( ))12(

:+

. ( 9f X.

; B ; *L L

2 " 9 &# q+!

; W*( N :5& ( 5 ))12(

#( 7:V † ( &</ & UB .

9>y+B

* 2 " )"( N 'L +* $ X,R 18 &C L( 7 Q<#( B )S( :++

= 8 ))12(

*& / :,&T P B ( ; / (:8( :+ R

. ( R f y8 $ &y+* )S( N 'L +* 9>/V ; C

* ))12(

:, V . 9><Q8 8 7 &C )* + 9 * 5 I ( )S( $'L +* & C =

(6)

7 &C 8

# =

8 2

:, ( &- = .

= X, *L # 9></8 J, $ ))12(

= 7:+ (&

* (&5 7 Q<#( * ; /,(:J<* & C = X &F I#

:,L # iEJ* ( ; / (:8( :,& C

(Ibid)

.

$ :V TO5 f c, Nb 1J N *(?2( 7&T+. L( iF +* 8 ! * &# q+! ; B iF +* &</ Y1' sbE<#(

8 N :5

$EO+* = : * y,( =(

. kl %(

8 N :5

$EO+* = T, =(

& ( 5 8 N :5 :, ( &</ , * = •

.

$8 1990

& ( >8 9 8 N :5 :+, * ‰ ? =

# 9 .

1, ; /, v " < +*( Y H* $)"(:* $ ;(:+. TS B ( $ :, (

* :J* X,R 2 " $+*( ? , T!( f(?2( N %

*

(Buzan& Waver, 2003, p3):,

.

:J* < L(

&</ Y1' = (LR $ TO5 f c, L( V , = 8 8 N :5

=

$EO+*

#( 7: * y,( =(

.

$ N 'L +* $ , X! <" # 7:V Y 1J = <# N T & = !

$EO+*

q+! $ ( =(

< , = 8

(Proxy War)

; * 2 8 L( 0 &8 $ $<H ( = 15( =

P2 . 7 & s: O5

8

$EO+* ; N [ •<5( L( $<# "& $ 7:*R : :B &-

=(

:+<H8 .

$EO+* :V $ N 'L +* (

=(

$ L( B ; X! < +*( I J* =:! Td

7 & y ( &# q+!

>X* L( $ :, ( :4<* Y*( ' $/ 9:,(

* ; ,R &

$ H

)*

& 7 V( s W ( * 5 (&C

) 9 : +V(

1385

@ 9 4

.(

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8 2

* $<VUC $ L( W $ -<H ( i &F L( :+<H,(

& ( & (& ( " +*( N :5

8 2

{b" 9:++ ^Q_ &- O5 $ $<H ( 5 =

< +*(

$!( * 7:V * $ :,(

$, C $ H

:++ ;(&T! ( ;R &- =(

. , *L < +*( = +-+ (

* 7 )! &</

P2 . $!( * ? , )"( $%&' 9:*R &</ B $ _&V $ 2 $ :+

= 8

"(

)5( $ _ , L( 7G $ ) T8U* 9 * 5 = 8

) 1_ * $<H ( YE<H* 7( "

8 N :5 ! " = (

:+V .

u #( ( &

9 <# = _ ( 5 $,L( * $ &c, iO+* (&1<#( ! $ #( = 8

T N :5 :5 9$, * " :+, * EF +* N :5 $2 4* $, (&-45(

#( =&C .

UC& dr = (

X, &! :+, * : :B , ;(&- L 8 7 &C

YWV T8U* * 5 = L( : :! < +*( Y[ H* =& C

$WTV >H & Y T5 W, 9 (&C + =(

Y T5 ( ! " # # = (& : :!

2 8

* (&5 :8 .

$EO+* N 6 4 N:V Y 2 $ I (&V ( <VR = 8 • =(

; W*( 9& UB ,

B i &F L( +*( s _

; W*( &<1 ? , ƒb<[( J ( &< ! 7: &C & UB

* = =&- = 8 < $ 2 $y <, * $ :, R

2 5 :,(

»

& C(& $,L( * $ &c, «

V Y )J $ ?y

.

(7)

) (

' * "# $" % & + & , -.

f XQ*

»

$,L( *

& C(&

«

Omni Balancing)

I# <H], =(& (

» : ; <#(

«

&-) )J

# # W &*R $ f # ; X! Y H* Y)12(

. s # 1991

$2 E* = f

=(

;( +'

» f # ; X! =L(&<18 T «

+*( N :5 $2 4* € 6 =(& ( f XQ* (

* # ; X! = 8 / -

$ $ 9:, ( &' = 8 / N Td 46 : :! N Q

&

.

$ #( ( <#( <H 2 [ iO+* ; 18 = +T* & : $6 &Q*

8 2

46

2 ( $ 2 ( N(: :X K & V ,R ab ? &1 $ , d '& N(: :X = ! $ (

* =&</

:+

. / 4 TF& S :+ R& :

2 Y W

-

! * ( f # ; X! )*

YWV 9 ' + * = 8L&* =& C )"( Td

2 8

; /, - H18 ; ,R N b<"( f (:

* :,(

. f XQ* 9: &c, $

» V ,R

(Anarchy) « K5( , 7 V( *

X+ $, 9?<2( :+, * , (&C

* € 6 ( f # ; X! = 8 / Y1' ! " I J*

( Y"( 46 & &p , $W) 9:8

H8 ? , 8 / $, C

(www.people.fos.harvard.edu/arhive/dav.pdf2006)

.

9:

8 2

$ l (: :X & C ( f # ; X! =

(Multiple Threat)

$ _ , L(

P2 . / ; ' 1<!( f yH,( ;(:E Td

8 2

5 =

Š O#

$EO+*

=(

* ))12(

(David, 1991, p193) :,(

Y1' sbE<#( ! 9&- $6 &Q* .

N :5 8

$EO+* = f c, <" # L( =(

#( ))12(

.

< $ +4* :

8 2

L( >X)*

P B N [ •<5(

#( iF +* @ " = 8 .

N 'L +* : :/ TO5 f c, V B & 7G $

$EO+*

$EO+* I (&V # +<* 8 < f y,( $ X,R f(?2( 2 Y1' = (LR ! * 9=(

=(

* V .

&/<+* s # 18 $ =&- h < :

&

IH Š&V ( & C(& $,L( * $ &c, 9

( &</

.

> 1 o( ( & & C(& $,L( * $ & 7 V( " : :! &d( = N * E* ;(& C

( : r 1 _ f c, +*( $! <* N(: :X 8 * L( 2 .

! u #(& k * 1' ; ,R

> 1 : :X L( €O# ( :, B 7G $ ! " )"( N(: :X * =& C

:++

.

' &/* ;(&J ;R $X!( * > _ f c, ' &/* ;(:E N %

; 1 _ +*( 9

c, +*( ?- ! * f

V .

$%&' 9; / :5 ^Q_ =(& ,(&T8 +. 2 _ (

* P B = < ! " # # Y"( ; ,R * W_ f WJ<#( $ ƒ O4* $ :,& C

$< &C 7: , N:* NL( / )* +*( K +* $ ‡ &* N c_b* $W,R 2 9 #(

(David, 1991, p.16) V .

(8)

$+ *L 18

# # # & $ = * $42 O* 0 :

= X1! = 8 7L = 8

sbE<#(

"( &B & C(& $,L( * $ &c, 2 5 i # = V $<

.

# # # & :

$d _ L( B $ W &*R ;R < +*( I ( a&<HC ; <HW L( ! "

11 9 ( = &T* <Z#

WV N * E* $ : # $y <, ( $ fb#( $) E* =(& ( # # ( :+

F(& ( ; (&C

»

$XT!

& &J<2(

«

$< &C P B :,(

. h &# X! (:< ( = W18 (

»

$XT!

& &J<2(

«

# $

* W_

»

> & fb#(

ƒ(

« YWV $ I ( ( (&1<#( $*( ( *( 9

; &! 0 =& C

h&S # # # # N Td $ : * y,( (&C

s 1<_( $)}H* : / P2 . $ ( ; <HW L(

hbE,( M 5

L *( ( )1]* = 8

. :+WV <+# I ( $ ( 16 J ? , WH* –

:+WV I ( *&C & dr : (&C C& $ <-+ V( –

. I ( * k + ' &*( 18

L( B W &*R ; <H!&C 11

&T* <Z#

2001 * n:%

(Miller & Toritsyn, 2004, pp. 325- :+

.363)

& ( $ 9

* ( & C(& $,L( *

$, C ;(

$ H,( ! " # # L( =(

8 2

=

P2 . ; * ;L( y ( = <#( * # ; X!

< &C &c, ! " )"( = 8

%&

* s 1'( I J* ( ! * = 8: :X 8

:++

David, 1991, pp.233-256)

.(

Nl J B ; *(& B I J* L( ;(&T8 o( ( E) L&F L( V , # # ( s 1'(

%& N(: :X O J*

* &* / & ;R $ _ , L( $ #( 8 V

(Nonneeman, 2005,p.10)

.

N Q ; : $ & C(& $,L( * 7:++ € &/ s %( L( &- W = } ;R

* & ~ <+# =( 5 $,L( *

= (UC& d ) 5 8 / )"( N(: :X €O# & &p , 9:+

* N :5 , X! ;L( & 8 / Y T5 ( :V

.

; W*( 93 46 = 8 / : &c, $

$ :J* X,R ! " # # N )1' I J* :, (:, ( N :5 , X! ;L( & = (UC& dr

€O#

$EO+*

#( =(

David, 1991, p.253)

.(

8 N :5 * " , *(& B iF +* < +*( N c_b* = <#( I# <* =

L( :+V

$EO+* N :5 &8 , X! N :5 0 $O)#

:, R Y1' $ 4, 1* 5 =(

. (

8 2

* v&" $ ;( (& # H_ T5 = # L( ; V~ Q, 7L _ =& UB~ Q, $ TH, :+8

.

7‹( ; & $ 6(

»

& C(&

«

$,L( * =: ) f XQ* ;:, * 5

< s( # & L 7 =&C

K5( 8 , T*

$8 F $, (&C 1990

t &Q* ( $ &c, ( $ # +4* ;(:

K5(

$,L( * $ $, (&C ab 9=&C

8 2

* $< & UB #( ! " : :X $) E*

V

Ibid)

.(

(9)

* y ( > _ ;(&T8 ?, N(: :X L( < ! " 2 1<_( : :X !

& $ :+

* # B N(: :X $ u #( ; 18 :+8

. * 01 t &Q* (

$,L( * :+

& : r 9=&C

ƒb<[( * c, = 8 & , I# $,L( * y (

$,L( * $ 8

< =&C

Balancing behavior)

(

I ( ; *

8 2

: s J

Ibid)

.(

I (&V $ $! 0 #b =( 5 $,L( * &c, : :y =(& =&c, ; W*( n , T*

* >8(& ( &# q+! L( B ;( iF +* @ "

;R $ $! $ R 9

$Q2e* :

= 8

%& ! " )"(

8 + ( v " Y"( I J* = 8: :X 8 * >

R

! " # #

8 2

* Y )J $ ?y ( * # ; X! = :+

. V B & $ 7G $

P+ P (? ( &# q+! ;( $<" # & < +*( N T &

3)<]* iF +* T8U* * 5 = 8

P2 . $, * " L EQ5 9; W2 7G $ ; X!

y ( & 7 b' $ & y ( 8 Td

(

$EO+* +*( 9 )"

I ( =(

8 2

J &- :W :,& C (&5 ;R M 4/2(

. ( I

H 2 [ t &Q* : :! P2 . ab +*( = 14* +4 <+# = 8

8 2

^Q_ =(&

& # +*( , 1 5 $ 2 " +*(

8 2

$EO+* €O# $ :V ! *

=(

))12(

P2 . * 5 = 8 ! " # # <# :+ < +*( $„T% $<VUC L( P

8 2

:,& C (&5

posen, 2003, p.55)

.(

*( ;(&-) )J I# † : $ & C(& $,L( * = }

; X! Y H* # & =(& ))12(

#( 7:V $< &C $ $, * " 7G $ f # .

< &C f y,( = * N 42 O* sb"

( 9$

$< u #( & ; # +V & # &</ Y* W $ &c,

;R * XQ* = +S & " = 8

:, ? ( .

» H2( N& ( «

=(& ( & C(& $,L( * $ &c, $ #( $, * " Y H* ;(&-) )J $)1! L(

&C $ $ & ;(& ( & : r $EO+* = 8 / ! " # # " +V .

V( = 7

*

= } ƒb" & & C(& $,L( * = } $ :+

$,(:+1 :5 # # = 8

Power Politics)

& (

3% f # ; X! = 8 / $ #( ;R

o ) ( R

o u #( & ( " =:+

* (&5 : ( L( P "

* $, -. $ :+8 N(: :X L( ( ; V " =&<X J, $ :+,(

+* )"(

$EO :++ #(&_ ^Q_ = (& =(

.

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* &<X Š 6 H2( <V , $ & C(& $,L( * $ &c, $O ( =(

( 9:

* f # ; X! = 8 / $ #(

( " $W,R = ! $ :+V s T5

» V ,R «

^Q_ , X!

( 9:++

» V ,R « :++ y ( =&- = ! ( .

(& ( # # = @ " $ & ;

$, 1, ( $, * " & $)}H*

P2 . s E<,( =(& ab L( =(

$ 8 / ( $ b<T* = 8

:,(: * iF +* & # .

(10)

» 1, , &C « Y )J $ & C(& $,L( * $ &c, u #( & $ #( ,(&-) )J L( &- W

#( $<"( &B $, * " Y H*

. ' & C(& $,L( * = &c, $ = # L( 7:V ~ ] ( <# # k * 1

$EO+* )%( ;(&- L { W ( ; : 9 , *(& B I J* N(: :X $) E* > # $ #( =(

$ 8 N :5

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.

8 2

0. =

3 46 &

$ . , iF +* &

# # ~ ] ( * _ = 8

$, (&C

Clientalism)

J ( (

8 N :5

‰ ? =

Bandwaggoning)

* P B ( (

:,& C

Nonneman, 2005, p14)

.(

+D18

» * /<_( ;( & V ,(

«

» a T+ 8 :, 1 «

! " # # Y )J

8 2

=

* sl:<#( $, * "

$ :++

8 N :5

$EO+* I# <* =

& C(& $,L( * y ( :% kb1' =(

:+<H8 . L( c+*

8 N :5

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$EO+* f c, *( 9:, ( = ! N :5 , * )%( ;(&- L =(

:,(

. ( 8 N :5

<V( >W_ $

7L _ * N :5 s 1'( ,( ~ Q, = 8 Y1' $,L( * = (&5& X! :+,(

&

& $ W 7

=&T8 9 C:, ( L ) 5 :++ s 1'( ( $EO+* "

.

$O ( @ " $! Y 5 $<W,

8 N :5

$EO+* =

=(

8 N :5

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$ <# =(& X,R ;( Y 1 =(

$ _ , L( ;:V = ?+* $) E* X! 8 (? ( 8 N :5

L( * c, : :X , _( ‰ ? =

#( ; ,R = # .

8 N :5

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=(

= # L( * c, $)"(:* ;:V = ?+* L( :, 5

8 N :5 ( (& L 9:+V ; *( ‰ ? =

8 N :5 $ ; T 5 Y E* #( W1* ‰ ? =

:++ (: B L , X,R L( 1_

.

$,L( * # # s 1'( L( V , ) 5 k 4TF +. $ #( & C(&

<"( ( , W*(

8 N :5

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* :8 .

$ :E<4* $ & * H2( $ # ;(& ( @ " * /<_( a T+ 8 PE, 2 5 X,R + & R 8 N :5

$EO+* =

$,L( * # # $ :+<H8 =(

7G $ ( & C(&

$< &C $ & $)}H* @ "

:,(

. ' 1<!( f yH,( IT &* $W,R 16 & $)}H* (& L

ZW )"(

* X,R + *L&# -.

$EO+* ~ Q, a&<HC N T! * 9 V

$ <# =(

$EO+* ; T 5 & / s 1'( X! = (? (

~ Q, w # L( V , N(: :X $) E* =(

N :5 8 * >8(& ( $EO+* ‰ ? = R

) 9 H2(

1380 @ 9 134 ( .

# H_

8 2

;R L( 7:V = X!

( 3' •*

7G $ ; ,R ~ Q, 7L _ $

$EO+* $ /, & iF +*

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. (U2

* &c, $ X : * %& $ : :X Y :T = <#( ; ,R $ :#

7&X :+V

=& C

& $,L( * y ( i &F L( & $)}H* & = (UC& dr ~ Q, s 1'(

L( V , < +*( : :X 9& C(

n J2(

%& $ ( ; T 5 2 " = & (&C s „/* X! < +*(

:+ 1, Y :T T5 =L #

)

@ 9; 18 –33

34

.(

(11)

! " # # L( Y )J (

8 2

& $ H8 &- >X* $<W, = _ $, * " =

# * & C(& $,L( * $ &c, H 9 X,R u #(

( ! " #

8 2

+ '

* =&</ = & )1' $T+!

: :

1 . HHC ! & H], * :+ R& ) 346 ' 1<!( f yH,( ;(:E 9 < 8 = 8

– 2 )*

=L #

Nation – State Building)

;( 7:, *L $ ( 7 V( f # ; X! (

# # 14<#(

<H 2 &Z*( = 8

8 2

#( B ( = .

u #( 18 &

9 2 8

; X! =

>yH+* )* 8 =& UB , w # +4 <+# >H 2 [ $ &c, 2 CG :5 f # :+<H8 . (& + 9 2 -. ZW f WJ<#(

= # L( $, * " :+, * EF +* )* –

; &!

i 1' = 8 7&X $/ $ –

2 " = ( &

8 9 * 5 N ' + L( ! " 7 &<HC =

( 8 / ( )"( T8U*

* P2 . . – V

.

>X* 2 ( 9 )"( : :X ( K

! " # #

8 2

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$ #( W1* 45( * +.

= W18 :% ?* 2

8 2

(&5 $ /* : :X t&4* $ : R&

$< &C :,(

) 9 * /<_( a T+ 8 1382

@ 9 44

.(

)* * 5 8( " 8 )"( P2 . $X!( * * 5 (&C

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$EO+* = 8 / 8 N :5

$EO+*(& = V =(

)

@ 9; 18 37 ( .

2 .

&c, i Q) 9f * f XQ* & C(& $,L( * $

» (&C n J2(

«

Irredentism)

#( (

.

* 7 V( M 6 * ( $ k( <"( * /<_( a T+ 8

$ :++

8 2

X* =(& $, * " =

P2 .

= W18 16 9 )"( ' 1<!( f yH,( 346 $) E* < 8 = 8

8 2

=

" $ ;(&J :% +W (& ! "

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$ )' + *L&# = 8 ' ( Š&F & +<T*

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*L&#

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.

&c+* ( L(

9 L( > _ ; -T], ƒ:8

; N :5 , T* E 9$, (&C n J2( = 8 4V Š&F

† H /* )! /

#( f &* # #

)

@ 9; 18 37

.(

$W,R & 7 b' & C(& $,L( * (&C n J2( f XQ* i Q) QC : n = ' ( a& UB

8 ! 4 (

! " # # L( &</

8 2

* € 6 ( $, * " = I J* 9:8

# # ( =(&!( W &<H $EO+* +*(

* # +VL &4* ? , ( 8

$ :+

* ;R $ $*( (

> L( &B .

(12)

–/ 0 . " 1 '#

"2 % "# '

n J2(

2 < ( 7‹( L( ~ "r* (&C

Irredenta)

0 {(?!( n J2( f:' 7:/, 7 '( +4* $ (

#( $<# B >8 $ Y .

(:! & 2l 7‹( ( # # N ( 7 &C *L&# 0

– * 5 )%( 7 -<# " L( T8U*

$)H)# $ 9$, (&C n J2( Nb 1 ! & + $ ( a(

=(

&- :W L( (:! {(?!( ( n ( n J2( =(& * c, <_ # # 8 &C N *(:5( L(

* :* y,(

. n J2( N *(:5( (

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& C (&5 1_ * .

s T5 ( n # # >8 L , ;&5 &"( ( 2 < ( 2 $D, +.

&C P B P & ( = (&Z*( 1 _ J ; L 2 < ( Nl ( n J2(

. H], $1 ,

# # =L , ; 12R ><H ;&5

$, (&C n J2( = 8

=(

@ "

+ /, ; 12R $EO+*

( )HW.

)

# i ( (&!( $ R

. * ( ' ( 18

;(

7

# # TH, ; <H+* ( = 8

+* ( $ _ , $ /,

» , <H8 Œ 7&5 «

$8 ; y ~R = X1! K5(

1990

? ,

Q, $EO+* * $ & = 8 ' (

& Š&O* n(&' s 1V o & ? "

(Milton, 2004,

p.103)

.

* &8 ( ab & "(

8 2

5 = 8 / ( 5 ;L( = (&5& =(&

7&X n J2( Nb 1 L( =& C

#( $! Y 5 ! * $, (&C .

_ = :

$ ! Y% _ ( Z#

; * + *L&# !

8 2

N&! X*

7 &<HC = 8

N &6 $ + $ #( =L&*(&

:J* s 1'( = <5( 9 # # = 8

=(& = 8 7 &C

8

* N % T8U* * 5 =

& C . )5( N E)4 8:, B kl 14* 2 _ (

= 8

* !& B ; +D18 )%( *L&# &! X* T8U* 9 * 5 :, *

. * 5 8 &C ;R $D, +.

9 ?* 2 9:8 Y W/ <2 9 ' ( * *L&# L( /] * 1 :,( < T8U*

# # < 1_ = 8 7

+) ( Z#

* s 1'( v " > E* /,&! X* = 8 :+

.

$, 1,

#( $+*( ( =( Z# ;R L .

$+*( ( 7 &<HC :, B sbE<#( L( B 9; <H+* ( 2

7:+ (&B 8 / & # $ & ;(& ( 9; +T2 9$H,(& 9 W &*R $ ( Z#

y ( :,(

&

.

Milton, 2004, p.104)

(.

* &*( (

$F &* T8U* 9 * 5 )5( ; ? * = 8 / I ( :,(

J (

;R $,L( * =(&5& = (UC& dr = <#( = (? ( ;( +' $ :8 (&5 M 4/2(

& C (&5 7 Q<#( * 2 .

n J2( ( Z#

*( ! < 7 V L( &dr<* &8 (&C K

8 2

$2 T, $ :+<H8

#( 7:+ (&B / L( v " X,R T8U* * 5 .

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; L *( ! * 8

$EO+* N 'L +* $

* / :+. ; * P2 . =(

V . 9$y <,

8 2

& C

K*( ! L( 1_ $O#( $ 7:V &- :W =L&* N 'L +*

8 7 &C T8U* 9 * 5 =

* 2 " &- :W )"( *( 5 / # H18 :++

) 9 * /<_( a T+ 8 1382

9

(13)

@ 29

* f(:5( ( (

; * * c, $X!( * L&* P+ : :/ ! * :,(

2 8

&C .

$

& = 8 / =L&* $ V _ $ & Y T5 :,:E<4* a T+ 8 * /<_( $, 1, ;( +' 9$

* C:,L $ # ;(& ( 9n(&' ( 9:++

8 2

PT+! 7& y,L & (& (

2 4 8

= 8

n J2(

#R = & >H 2 , # , ? , $, (&C * & UB

( =(& :++

8 2

( O (&V

* >8(&

:+,( / 2 ;R :6 & 5 2 # = 8 & $ :++

. +D18

8 2

=

?*

* n J2( Nb 1 L( 3 &_ 7 Q<#( L( YT5 :+V P B 9 ! * * 5 $, (&C

:++ <#

s: %& & ( ! * : :X 9 / ;R = 8 & L( 1_ 3 &_ 7L _ 2 "

:+ 1, )"( * 5 ;(&J & C ( ;R 7 1,

) 9 * /<_( a T+ 8 1382

@ 9 29

.(

& : 9

7: :B n J2(

$ #( $, * " # # )1' I J* ƒ&4* (&C

$%&' Y"(: ;R

%& & # 0 L( ! " )"( # # = 8

N(: :X 8

* >/. $ $%&' (

"

.

$, 1, ;( +' $ 9

P (&C ! n J2( = 8

16 9= & $, (&C

9$ & 9$ # =(& < +*( : :X $W,R B (&* n(&'

* 1V $ ;(& ( =(& &

: R

i &F ( L( $ H8 ? , <%& s _ '

8 2

* ?* =

$) E* 16 :+V

P (&C n J2( = 8 :+ 1, " = T5 $! <* ( ;R : :X 9$, (&C

. <# # +. s 1'(

L( $ –

= #

8 2

7 ?* =

3)<]* = 8 7:V $< &C $ ; / T5 & (&

$T+! –

* ; /, ( & C(& =( 5 $,L( * L( =&- :8

.

$ J* +*( &W < +*( N c_b*

# # ( s 1'( $_ 2&#

* ; /, &</ ( =:+, 18 i O ( 9 ( (&5 8 :8

.

' * ,L( * $ &c, :E, = T* L( W

$ * ( & C(&

0 G (&<#( N 42 O* 7L _ ;(

.

* n &c+* L( P#&B (

$ &c, ( ? 1 $! $ "( &B & C(& $,L( * $ &c, :E, $ ;(

h < :+, * 0 G (&<#( N 42 O* 2 5 $D,R L(

»

‰ ? =G (&<#(

« 9 )

?+ 2 ; ! $<V , (

$

( &T8( : f ?2 & ;R

#R & +<T* # +<* 8 < f y,

=& UB

= " = 8

* : r 3 &_

& :* ;R = +T* & $ #( . . ; 18 ( j H . 9 &C

$ f # * s:* 90 G (&<#(

#R K &* SWOT

: 9: :X %& 9N 5 $OE, 9=& UB

* V . H], 9

<#( 7 V( * $D,R QC : # B H G (&

L( 8

»

? ; # «

; <# ;(

<+# o & +<T* * c, 7L _ $ ƒ O4* k :1' 97 ><H ;&5 &"( ( ?+ 2 $< &C

$%&' & # 7 +*(

#( 7 ( (&5 &c,:* &<1 ( 8 .

& +<T* & C(& $,L( * *(

(14)

f XQ*

7L _ #( +*( L( : :! =:+

3)<]* = 8 *& ( ' 1<!( 9 # #

& C

H , ? &1<* * c, N(: :X & k &%

.

f 9 )%( &- L 9 )* 0 G (&<#( & :* 0 G (&<#( N 42 O* $W+ (

8 2

:+<H8 .

$%&' & C(& $,L( * $ 2 _

* ' 6 * =(

<2 & S ;(&- L $ :

$)1! L( )* & )*(&

8 7 &C :+<H8 s 4 T8U* 9 * 5 = .

n J2( u #( ( &

(&C

$ ?y

#R 0 $, Y"( * 5 7 &C 0 T)F

=&- L = # L( : :X 0 $ =& UB

a ƒ(:8( 9 + '

* $<H,( \]/* = 8 V

.

$%&' Y E<* ‡ T ( & & C(& $,L( * 9f # 7? *R ab ! " )"( = 8

%&

8 : > # 0 G (&<#( N 42 O* $ ( 7G =? &1 : r N(: :X

1, 7:8 /* :_

V .

* >8 = E<,( = * N 42 O*

o * :E, $ ;(

H2( N& ( h < & W# L C

! " # # & $)}H* PE, # & = I# & C(& $,L( * = -2( =& C $

& ;(& (

& 7 V( $ .

1, $ ( : <# $ = ( ! " # # $18 ;(

2 =(& )"( N(: :X ! & C(& $,L( * $ ( & $)}H* @ " / P2 . L( ( W,R ;(&X ;(&T8 o ( Y )E )"( = 8

Gassiorowski, 1999, p.44)

.(

* H2( L( = E<,(

h . . L( =:E, :,(

$ :V & C(& $,L( * * XQ* =:+

* & )"( N(: :X $ k &% ( 8 / < +*( N c_b*

7L _ & # :8 )*( ' 8

! " # # & $ (

8 2

* 7: , 9:+<H8 &d * $, * " 7G $

& C .

a T+ 8 &d( $ 7 V( +D18 W# L C * /<_(

7 8 N :5 I# <* =

$EO+* f c, w # =(

$ …* $ $ # ;(& ( # # = * $42 O* & UB 8 N :5

I# <* =

$EO+*

* Xp( =(

46 L( " $ , $ $ & ;(& ( 9$ # ! " # # $ (

# # <

= 8

8 2

(&' Y (&#( 9 W &*R :+, * * $ $< & UB & dr ? , n

H

V x J2 & C(& $,L( * $ &c,

Gasiorowski, 1999, p.45) (.

* W# L C & T4 L( 7 Q<#( & C(& $,L( * $ &c, L( X, L (

$ QC ;(

K5( # >8 9 " <H 2 [ 7 -<# " & + $ &c, (

;(&J $ ; (&C * 5 = 8

$ Y 5

PE, 1, 7: , ( * 5 & „<* & s _ ' :+<H8 2 & & + & R 9:,& C

* 7G $ 8 / ! " # # * 5 & „<* 7 - ! PE, # & =(& +T* :,(

:8 # $ $, * "

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! " # # &<X i TO ) 5 : 5 ( & C(& $,L( * QC : s _ ' *(

8 2 * (: B ( $, * " = ( < +*( N c_b* :,( < $ :+

8 2

8: :X

%&

$+XB ( b<T* = 8

=(

K #

&1V& &

. P2 . $ k * ?2 N c_b* ( )"( = 8

:+<H , :J* & J+*

.

$EO+* & UB w # f c, $ $!

•_ $, * " =(

$' 1y* = (UC& dr L( =(

8 N :5

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$EO+*(& =(

* 9=(

< +*( N c_b* H

8 2 ! " )"( 4 ( ( $, * " =

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.

! " N(: :X & : r (

External threats)

TH, (

& y+#

f:' ;R =:+

? , s 4 Td

Y"( ' 1<!( # # = 8

Socio Political Instability – SPI) (

+!

q )"( = 8

Civil War)

P8 GB (

#( $< =&</ v( & "( = & = 8 .

3 ( & C(& $,L( * $ &c, $ UC <+# =( 5 $,L( * $ &c, :E, 1 ?' ‡ E, L( W

&# q+! L( B ;( $ ( $2 E*

9 L( 0 • 8 ! " # #

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7G $

h VR&B EF +*

7 # EO+* = +T* & $, * " :+, * , T Y 5 =& „<* 0 $,(L #

T .

$, * " 0 V ,R = • = J* 2 Y%( C:, ( L <H 2 [ iO+* :+.&8

$,L( * &# q+! ; B *( 9 #( 5 ; +D18 y ( * c, P] E i &F L( =&C

ƒb<[(

& i # =:*R L( 8 9 )S( H , ( "

8 2

7 Q<#( $,L( * y ( :%

7&X :+<H8 ? , &- = 8 (? ( L(

+. & C(& $,L( * $ &c, 2 5 * 5 & „<* L( =& C

f XQ* < 46 < +*( ! " # # Y )J 7:V =:+

8 2

n(: * $, * " =

* &

: .

k 6&

»

$)}H*

&

« s 1V / X. $ H8 Y H, <B ( =( ( 9 ] :8( V & +

P2 . . >8 ( ;(& ( $18 L( &<1 $<T2( 9$, * "

)"( = 8

&

$) E* ( X,R >8 7

#R ! " $)"(:*

L # & UB

Chaliand, 1993)

.(

*

$, C $ ( & $)}H* ;(

R s …* :8 V &- =(

. 7G $ & $)}H* ;:V ))12(

L(

1370 / 1991 YWV :4 $ / 0 )"( ;(&J <H], =(& $ < 46 =& C

7: :B $

=(

$)"(:* M 6 * ))12(

9 " # s: ! " (&C )* '

Y )J >X*

#( M 6 * ( 7:V / X. ! " # # .

&S = 8 / s 1V ;(&J

n(&' 1991

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$)"(:* * XQ* $O _ ;:,(&<HC =(& # +*

$ ;R > 14 (&C

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( $H,(& 5 $! " & L 9u *( ;l

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* ! $

R

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>8(& 8 & $18 L( s ( ;R $ /* = 8 * 2 " =(& 8 (? ( 9Y)12(

:+

.

> &J : :X J = <5( = 8

))12(

)

$ (

= 8 & , •_ f y,(&# n(&'

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«

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1382 @ 9 224 ( .

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:, ( : :/ f (: QC ;(

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:8( " (UC& d $, * " /, &

.

* ( $<W, ( * $ 9& C(& $,L( * $ &c, +D18 9;(& ( / X. # H_ $ L *R

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2. Brown, Michael, (1995), The Perils of Anarchy, Contemporary Realism and International Security MIT press.

3. Brown, Michael, (1993), Ethnic Conflict and International security, princeton: N,J, ch6 4. Buzan, Barry and Waver, Ole, (2003), Regions and Powers: the struct ure of

International Security, Cambridge: Cambridge University press.

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7. David, Steven, (1991), Choosing sides: Alignement and Realignment in the Third World, Baltimor: john Hopkings University press.

8. Fox, Jonathan, (2004) Bringing Religion into IR, Palgrave, chap 2.

9. Gasiorowski, Mark, (1999) in: Cria Bulletin Vol. 15. No 1 April.

10. Miller, Eric and Toritsyn, Arcady, (2004) internal Threats & Allignment Theory, Security Studies, Routledge, vol 16. Winter.

11. Milton. J. Esman, (2004) An introdecion to Ethnic conflict, cambidge: polity press.

12. Nonneman, Gerd. (2005) Analysing middle east foreign policy, (ed), London: Routledge.

13. Posen, Barry (2003) The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict, p. 80 in susan B.

Martin: Form Balance of power to Balancing Behavior, in Andrew K.Hanami (ed) Pespectives on Structural Realism, New york: palgrave.

14. Sarkess etal, 2003: Fearon and Laitin, 2003.

15. www. People. Fos. Harvard. Edu / arhive / davl. Pdf 2006.

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