• Tidak ada hasil yang ditemukan

Z] |Ë|¼Å Ê

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2024

Membagikan "Z] |Ë|¼Å Ê"

Copied!
15
0
0

Teks penuh

(1)

Archive of SID

‰Z]|Ë|¼Åʇ€]

|Ë|‹ÉZÅ

€Æ‹Â]½Zf‡YÊ]ÂÀmÊuY¿{

Z°»|À³€Ì»Y - *

Z̧Y€¤mÃÁ€³ZË{Zf‡Y

¦n¿|uYÁʻԇY{YMÃZ´Œ¿Y{

{Z]M

Ã|̰q

‰Z]Â«Á ʳ„ËÁĸ¼mY|Ë|‹ÁÉZ^³ÉZÅ

ļ̿Á®ŒyÊuY¿ÊËYÂÅÁ[MÉZÅ

\m»įd‡Y®Œy

Ê»¶Ì‡Á€]

{‹

qÂ«Á

‰Z]¾ÌÀ d‡YʘÌv»ÁʰÌfaÂÀ̇–ËY€‹\̯€e¶ZuÊËZÅ

½Â¸°Ì‡Â^Ÿ

ÉZÅ

Ä¿Y€fË|»

‰Z]Á€]¶»ZŸ¾Ë€f¼Æ»ÉY

¶Ì‡ÉZÅ Ê]ÂÀmÊuY¿ĸ¼mY½Y€ËYª—ZÀ»Êy€]{Z»Yd‡Y½Y€ËY{Z‡M

,Ê]€£[ÂÀmÁ

€ÌiZedve

½Â¸°Ì‡

Ä¿Y€fË|»ÉZÅ

ÉY {€Ì³Ê¼¿Y€«

‡€]Z]ŠÅÁ„a¾ËY{

‰Z]Â«ÁĘ]YÊ

{|Ë|‹ÉZÅ

€Æ‹Â]½Zf‡YÊ]ÂÀmÊuY¿

Ä¿Z»Z‡Z]

º¯ZuÉÂmÉZÅ

‰Z]Â«ÁʰÌfaÂÀ̇d¸ŸZe|‹Ê ‡,½M¥Y€—YÊuY¿Á½Y€ËYŒ¯€]

ŽzŒ»Ä¬˜À»¾ËY{¾Ì´À‡ÉZÅ

{‹

‰Z]Á€]ʸY¶»ZŸÄ¯{Y{½ZŒ¿ŠÅÁ„a¾ËYY¶ZulËZf¿

¶Ì‡Á|Ë|‹ÉZÅ

¿{Y

½Zf‡YÊ]ÂÀmÊuY

º¯Ä¿Z»Z‡{ÁÁ€Æ‹Â]

{ –ËY€‹€³YÄf^·Yįd‡YĬ˜À»¾ËYÄ]Œ¯[€£[ÂÀmÁ[ÂÀmYÊ¿Y{‡ZŒ§

‰Z]¾Ë€e|Ë|‹,|‹Z]ºÅY€§ºÅ¾Ì»ÉZ»€³|À¿Z»Ê¸v»

Ê»wZÅ

‰Z]Á€]ž«YÁÄ]Á|Å{

ÊuY¿{|Ë|‹ÉZÅ

³YÁ|¿Y{Ê¿Y{‡PŒÀ»€Æ‹Â]½Zf‡YÊ]ÂÀm ºfˆÌ‡{ÁÁZ]€

Ä¿Y€fË|»ÉZÅ

‰Z],|À‹Z]ÃY€¼ÅÉY

ɀe|Ë|‹ÉZÅ

ʻw

|Å{

É|̸¯½Z³ƒYÁ

Ä¿Z»Z‡,¶Ì‡

º¯,¶Ìˆ¿ZfaÂWƒZ¨eY,ʰÌfaÂÀ̇¶Ì¸ve,ÉÂmZÅ

Ê¿Y{‡ZŒ§

µÂX?»Ã|Ë¿*

[email protected]

E-mail:

Ä·Z¬»d§ZË{

ÊËZÆ¿‰€Ë~a

(2)

Archive of SID

Ä»|¬»

‰Z]Â«Á

,|‹Z]€fŒÌ]­Zy}¨¿ḑ€›Y½M½Y‚̻İË—Ä]{Zˁc|‹Z]ÉZÅ

{ZnËY\m»

Ê»¶Ì‡Á€]Á[Z¿YÁ

‰Z]¾ËY€³YµZu,{‹

{|Ë|‹ÁÉZ^³ÉZÅ

įY€Ë ,d‡Y ÃY€¼Å ɀfŒÌ] ÉZŀ˜y Z] ,|f§ZÌ] ©Z¨eY ÊÅZ̳ Š‹Âa ½Á|] ÊuY¿

‰Z]¾ÌÀqYÊÆmÂe¶]Z«Y|¬»Ád‡Y€f¼¯ª—ZÀ»¾ËY{ɀË~a}¨¿

[Z¿YÁÄ]ÊËZÅ

Ê»cZˆyÁ€]\m»ÁÃ|‹¶Ë|^e¶Ì‡Á

{‹

ºÌ¸«Y,¦Ë€ eª^—

‰{€³¾Ì]Ę]Yįd‡Yʼ¸Ÿ®ÌfaÂÀ̇ʇZÀ‹

Z]YÉÂmÉZÅ

Ê» ʇ€] Ĭ˜À» ®Ë Êv˜‡ –Ìv»

|À¯

ºÌ¸«Y ½Âq

µZ^¿|] ®ÌfaÂÀ̇ ʇZÀ‹

ŠÀ¯|¿Y¾ÌÌ^e

ʘÌv»¹Â¸Ÿ½ZÌ»{,d‡YÊv˜‡–Ìv»ÁÂm½ZÌ»É|̸¯ÉZÅ

d‡YY{Ây€]É{Zˁʸ¼ŸÁɀœ¿‰YY

«Y ºÌ¸

ÄyZ‹{®ÌfaÂÀ̇ʇZÀ‹

ÉZÅ

{Y{ʼƻÃZ´ËZmºÅZ̧Y€¤mº¸Ÿ{ÁÉÂm¹Â¸Ÿ¦¸fz»

Yarnal, 1993

ºÌ¸«YʸY¥Y|ÅYYʰË

‰{€³cY€Ì̤eЬ¿Ê‡€]®ÌfaÂÀ̇ʇZÀ‹

ÉÂmÉZÅ

d‡Y Êv˜‡ –Ìv» cY€Ì̤e {

½M ʰË{‚¿ ZË ¾Ì» t˜‡ ÉZÅ|ÀËM€§ Y ÉZ̈]

Á{Z],Z»{,ʳ|¿Z]

ʘÌv»cԔ »YÉZ̈]¾ÌÀr¼ÅÁ

½YZ],YÂÅʳ{·M

¶Ì‡,[Md̨̯Ád̼¯,É|̇Y

‰{€³€ÌiPedvec|‹Ä]

|ÀfˆÅÉÂmÉZÅ

Ĭ^—ÉY€]ʸY{€°ËÁÁ{®ÌfaÂÀ̇cZ ·Z˜»Ä¼Å{

{Y{{ÂmÁÉ|À]

Á{¾ËY

Ê»Y{€°ËÁ

|Ì»Z¿Ê‹{€³Ä]ʘÌv»ÁʘÌv»Ä]ʋ{€³{€°ËÁ½YÂe

{€°ËÁ{

®Ë Z] Y ½M Ę]Y Á Ã{Y{ ¶Ì°Œe Y ®ÌfaÂÀ̇ cZ¬^— ª¬v» ʘÌv» Ä] ʋ{€³ Ê» ʇ€] Ĭ˜À»

|À¯

ª¬v» ʋ{€³ Ä] ʘÌv» {€°ËÁ { {€°ËÁ ¾ËY ¥Ôy €]

‰{€³ÉZÅ´·Y

Ê»wt˜‡{įʏZyʘÌv»–ËY€‹\ˆu€]YÂm

¾ÌÌ e|Å{

Ê»

|À¯

ÉZÀ^»€]ª¬v»{€°ËÁ¾ËY{

½{€¯{YÁÉY€]ÊËZÅZÌ »Ê˜Ìv»–ËY€‹

Ã{Y{

Ĭ^—|ÀËY€§{ ʋ{€³ÉZÅ

Ê»ZÀ]É|À]

|À¯

®ÌfaÂÀ̇cZ¬^—\Ìe€e¾ËYÄ]

|ÀfˆÌ¿ ʇ€] {» ʘÌv» x‡Za Y ¶¬fˆ»

Yarnal, 1993

ºÌ¸«Y ʇZÀ‹

Ê»µZ^¿{Y±‚]¥|ŮˮÌfaÂÀ̇

‰{€³½ZÌ»–]YÁ½{€¯Y|Ìa½MÁ|À¯

ÉZÅ

Z]ÉÂm d‡YÊv˜‡–Ìv»

(3)

Archive of SID

Â“»cZÌ]{Y€]ÉÁ€»

ÊuZf§

,½Y€ËY‰Z]Z]ÉÂm‰{€³ÉZÅ´·Y¾Ì]Ę]Y½YÂÀŸZ]ʌÅÁ„a{

`Ìeį|̇ÄnÌf¿¾ËYÄ]

ZŒ§€a,ɂ¯€»ZŒ§€a,Ê·Z¼‹ÉZaÁYZŒ§€aÉYÂÅÉZÅ

Z§{ÊËZaÁYZŒ§€aZ]ɀ^̇ZŒ§€aÄ¿Z»Z‡ªÌ¨¸eÁ,Ê«€‹ÉZaÁY El Nino

Y

|¿Y{Ây€]ɀfŒÌ]Ê¿YÁY€§

`Ìeİ̷Zu{

Ê«€‹ZŒ§€aÁɀ^̇ZŒ§€aÉYÂÅÉZÅ

± ÃÁ{{Ê«€‹µZ¼‹

ÉZÅ La Nino

d‡Y€fŒÌ]

Z°»|À³

‰Z]Â«ÁʰÌfaÂÀ̇¶¸ŸÊ‡€]Ä]ʌÅÁ„a{

¶Ì‡ÉZÅ

{Z‡M

Ã|ÀËYÄ¿Zy{Á

Â^ŸÄ¯|̇ÄnÌf¿¾ËYÄ]ÁdyY{€a{Á

½Â¸°Ì‡

Ä¿Y€fË|»ÉZÅ

ÁÉY

‰Z]¾ËYÁ€]¶»ZŸ¾Ë€f¼Æ»Ê]€£ÉZÅ{Z]k»

ļŒq€‡{ZÅ

Ã|ÀËYÄ¿Zy{ÁÉZÅ

{Á

d‡Y É|‡YÁ½ZË{ ˆ»

µZ‡[Ô̇®ÌfaÂÀ̇ʇ€]½YÂÀŸZ]ʌÅÁ„a{

ºfˆÌ‡Ê‡€]Z]Y€Ì‹

‰Z]|m»ÉÂmÉZÅ

ÉZŁÁʗ|Ë|‹ÉZÅ

Ê·Y

ÃZ¼Ë{

ºfˆÌ‡ į |Àf§ZË{

½YZ] ÉZÅ

Ä¿Y€fË|» ÉY

Ê¿Y{‡ Á ÉY ±

ÉZË{

Ã{Â][Ô̇¾ËYÁ€]¶»YŸY,w€‡

|¿Y

½YZ°¼ÅÁÊËZ]Z]kZu

ºfˆÌ‡Ê‡€]½YÂÀŸZ]ʌÅÁ„a{

ʰÌfaÂÀ̇ÉZÅ

¶Ì‡

Ȭ¿Ê‡€]Z],½ZƨY{Z‡M

¾ËYÄ]ÂmÊ¿ZÌ»s˜‡Á¾Ì»t˜‡ÉYÂÅÉZÅ

Ìf¿

º¯‚¯€»Y€¬f‡Y¹Z´ÀÅ{į|¿|̇Än

‰Z],Ĭ˜À»ÉÁ€]Ê¿Y{‡ZŒ§

ÉZÅ

¶Ì‡

Ê»Ã|ÅZŒ»Z‡M

º¯‚¯€»Ä°Ì»Z´ÀÅÁ{‹

º¯‚¯€»Z]Ê¿Y{‡ZŒ§

Ä¿Y€fË|»ZŒ§

ÉY

‰Z],|¿Â‹¹Z£{YºÅZ]

¶Ì‡Á¾Ì´À‡ÉZÅ

½Zf‡YÊ]€£[ÂÀmÁÊ]ÂÀmÊuY¿{Z‡M

Ê»{ZnËY½ZƨY

{‹

É{Zn‡

Ê«{Z Á

,½Y€ËY Ê]€£ ÊuY¿ { į |Àf§ZË{ ʌÅÁ„a {

Ä¿Y€fË|»ZŒ§º¯ºfˆÌ‡®ËZ]ÃY€¼ÅÊ]€£ÉZƼfˆÌ‡

¥Y€eÁ¾Ì»t˜‡ÉÁ{ÉY

‰Z]ÉY€]Ê^‡ZÀ»É´·YÊ¿Z«Â§s˜‡

Ĭ˜À»¾ËY{

‰Z]ÉY€]¹Ód]—ÁÃ{Â]

Ã{€¯ ¾Ì»Ze Y

|u ÉYY{ Ĭ˜À» d·Zu ¾ËY { Á |¿Y ÉÁ Y į Ã{Â] {Z] dŸ€‡ €j¯Y

Ȭ¿

ÉZŠʸ̻

d‡YŽzŒ»0Ô»Z¯Z]

½ZË{ ˆ»

‰Z]Z]ÃY€¼Å|Ë|¼Å–ËY€‹ÊËZ‡ZÀ‹½YÂÀŸZ]ʌÅÁ„a{

ÉZÅ

‰Z]½|»M|Ë|a{įd§ZËd‡{ÄnÌf¿¾ËYÄ],½Y€ËY¾Ì´À‡€]Y

®Ë¾Ì´À‡€]YÉZÅ

|¿Y{Ь¿Ê‹{€³É´·YÁ{,½Y€ËYÁÁ

·Y ÉÁ€]ZŒ§€a®ËY€¬f‡YZ]µÁYÉ´

(4)

Archive of SID

Ê»ŽzŒ»…Z§l̸y{Á€§‰€fˆ³ÁÃŻÉZË{

¶°‹Z]¹Á{É´·YÁ{‹

ɀ̳

Ä¿Z]ÄÀyÁ©Y€ŸÉÁ€]{Á€§

ɀ^̇ZŒ§€aÉZÅ ±

d‡YÃY€¼Å½Y€ËY½Á{Ä]ÃŻ

Ä¿Z»Z‡ÊËZ‡ZÀ‹Z]Zed‡Y½M€]Ê ‡ŠÅÁ„a¾ËY{

‰Z]|m»ÉÂmÉZÅ

ÉZÅ

‡

¶Ì‡Á¾Ì´À

ŠÌaÁ€Æ‹Â]½Zf‡Y[ÂÀm{Z‡M

Ä¿Z»Z‡¾ËYY€¬f‡Y½Z»ÊÀÌ]

ÁZÅ

‰Z]Á€]

dˀË|»µZ¼ŸYdÆm{Y½ZŒËY,½Y€Ë|»Ä]ž«Â»Ä]Y|ŒÅÁ¾Ì´À‡ÉZÅ

cZˆyÁ€]Yɀ̳¸mÁ½Y€v]

{¼¿ÉZË,|Ë|‹ÉZÅ

‰Á

ʇZÀ‹

ªÌ¬ve

‰Z]Â«Á¾ÌÌ eœÀ»Ä]

¶Ì‡ÉZÅ

‡M Ä¿YÁZ»MY€Æ‹Â]½Zf‡YÊ]ÂÀmÊuY¿{Z

d‡YÃ|‹Ã{Z¨f‡Y€Ë{|À]Á½Z´À¯®ÌfaÂÀ̇ÃZ´fˆËY{ʳ|¿Z]

Z»M…Z‡Y¾ËY€]

ÄË¿YƒµÁYÁYʳ|¿Z]Ä¿YÁ

€^»Z‡{€yMZeÉ{ÔÌ»

{»É{ÔÌ»

‰Z]¾Ë€e|Ë|‹Ád‡YÄf§€³Y€«¶Ì¸veÁÄ˂ne

{Ä¿YÁÉZÅ ÃZ´fˆËY¾ËY

ÃÁ{{ZÅ

d‡YÃ|‹kY€zf‡Y¯~»Ê¿Z»

Ä¿Z»Z‡Ê‡€]ÉY€]

‰Z]|m»ÉÂmZÅ

¶Ì‡ÉZÅ

Z‡M

Ã{Y{Y ÉZÅ Ã{Y{ÁZË{Y€eZŒ§

|‹Ã{Z¨f‡YÂm¦¸fz»s˜‡¶Ìˆ¿ZfaÂWƒZ¨eYÉZÅ

Ã{Y{

ÄËӶ̈¿ZfaÂWƒZ¨eYÁZË{t˜‡ZŒ§ÉZÅ

ÉZÅ , Á aÂf°Å µZ°‡Z

d‡YÄf§€³Y€«Ê‡€]{»

Ã{Y{¾ËY{Z ]Y

{Äm{

Ä¿YÁcÄ]Äm{

ÄË¿Yƒ µÁY Y

€^»Z‡{ ½ZËZa Ze É{ÔÌ»

‘€Ÿ Ã{Á|v» { É{ÔÌ»

Ze€¨ÊËZ̧Y€¤m

Ze€¨ÊËZ̧Y€¤mµÂ—ÁÊ·Z¼‹Äm{

Ã{Â]Ê«€‹Äm{

Ȭ¿œÀ»¾ËYÄ]Ád‡Y

ÉZÅ d‡YÃ|‹ºÌ‡€e¯~»Ê¿Z»ÃÁ{ʗÄËӀÅÄ¿YÁ

{Y| eÄËӀÅÉY€]Á

d‡YÃ|‹ÄÌÆeȬ¿

ÁÂm½Z»Z‡ÉZ¼¿ZeYZÅÃ{Y{¾ËY

…¿ZÌ«Y d‡YÃ|‹d‹Y{€]Ã|vf»cÓZËYʇZÀ‹

hv]

‰Z] Â«Á |Ë|¼Å ʇ€] œÀ» Ä]

,€Æ‹Â] ½Zf‡Y Ê]ÂÀm ÊuY¿ { |Ë|‹ ÉZÅ

Œ§ÉZÅ´·Y ÄËÓÁZË{Y€e{YÂÅZ

‰Z]Â«Á½Z»{ÂmÊ¿ZÌ»ZeÊv˜‡ÉZÅ

ÉZÅ

¶Ì‡

d§€³Y€«¶Ì¸veÁÄ˂ne{»Z‡M

(5)

Archive of SID

ÄËÓÁZË{Y€e{ÂmʰÌfaÂÀ̇dÌ “ÁĿ¼¿ÉY€]Ä»Y{Y{

ÉZÅ Á

¶Ì‡‰Z]Â«ÁY¶^«ÉZŁÁ{µZ°‡ZaÂf°Å

ÄË¿YƒºÆ¿ÁÉZ‡M

‹Ã{ÁM Ã|

d‡Y Ád§€³€]{Y€Æ‹Â]½Zf‡Y[ÂÀmĬ˜À»ÉZ^³Á|Ë|‹Z̈]‰Z]Á¾ËY{

|‹Ä¬˜À»¾ËY{|Ë|‹¶Ì‡Á€]\m»

½Z´À¯ÃZ´fˆËY{Á¾ËY{

€f¼Ì¸Ì»

€Ë{|À]ÃZ´fˆËY{Á

d‡ÂÌaÂ«ÁÄ]‰Z]€f¼Ì¸Ì»

«ÉZŁÁ{ZË{Y€e{YÂÅÉZÅ´·Yʇ€]

¶Ì‡‰Z]Â«Á¹Z´ÀÅÁ¶^

ÁÉZ‡M

ÄË¿YƒºÆ¿

Ê»½ZŒ¿

|Å{

º¯ºfˆÌ‡ÄË¿YƒºŒ‹ÁYį

ZŒ§Z]Ê¿Y{‡ZŒ§

{Á|uɂ¯€»ÄfˆÅ

Á…Z§l̸yd¼‡Ä]w€‡ÉZË{d¼‡YµZ°‡ZaÂf°Å

d‡Y Äf§ZË ‰€fˆ³ ½Y€ËY Ê]ÂÀm ÊuY¿

‰€fˆ³ ºfˆÌ‡ ¾ËY ÄË¿Yƒ ºf¨Å Á {

€fŒÌ]

ºfˆÌ‡ ®Ë Á ¾ËY { ,d‡Y Ã{€¯ d¯€u ½Y€ËY d¼‡ Ä] €fŒÌ] Á Äf§ZË É º¯

ɂ¯€»ÄfˆÅZŒ§Z][€£µZ¼‹d¼‡YºÅZŒ§

Œ¯{YÁ,µZ°‡ZaÂf°Å

Ä¿Z]ÁÃ|‹

d‡YÃ|‹Ã|̌¯ºÅ½Y€ËYÊ]€£[ÂÀmÊuY¿Ze½MÉZÅ

ºfŒÅÁ{

f§Zˉ€fˆ³½Y€ËYÉÁ€]ºÅZ]ºfˆÌ‡Á{ÄË¿Yƒ

Ä Äf‹Y{¹YÁ{ÄË¿YƒºÆ¿ÁZeÁ|¿Y

|¿Y

Äf§¾Ì]YÁÃ|‹¦Ì “ºfˆÌ‡Á{€ÅÄË¿YƒºÅ{Á{Á

|¿Y

º¯Ä¿Z»Z‡Á{½Z»‚¼ÅÂ^Ÿž«YÁÄ]

Ä¿Y€fË|»ÁÊ¿Y{‡[—€»ÁZŒ§

,½Y€ËYÉÁYÉY

Ã|‹Ä¬˜À»¾ËYÄ]½YÁY€§d]—µZ¬f¿Y\m»

º¯€iYÄf^·Yį|¿Y

Ê¿Y{‡ZŒ§

ÉÁ€]

d‡YÃ{Â]€fŒÌ]½Y€ËYɂ¯€»ÁÊ]€£[ÂÀm,Ê]ÂÀmÊuY¿

Z]įʿY{‡ºfˆÌ‡

Ê»¶¼uYɃ€¿YÉ{ZˁY|¬»{ZˁÉZ»€³Á½YÁY€§d]—

l̸yYÂ^ŸY†a|À¯

ÁdŸ€‡ŠÅZ¯Zq{ʰŒyZ]{Ây€]Á½Y€ËYÄ]{ÁÁ¹Z´ÀÅÁÃ|‹dˬe…Z§

Ê» YÂÅ ž¼ne

Á ʳ{€Œ§ ¾ËY ,{‹

¶uY‡ { YÂÅ |Ë|‹ {  \m» ,YÂÅ ž¼ne

‰Z]Á€]\m»ʿZƳZ¿{ ¾ËYÁÃ|‹€Æ‹Â]½Zf‡YÊ]ÂÀm

{¾Ì´À‡Z̈]ÉZÅ

d‡YÄf‹Y{ÃY€¼ÅÄ]YÉ|Ë|‹¶Ì‡ÁÃ|‹Ä¬˜À»¾ËY

(6)

Archive of SID

¶°‹

ÃZ¼‹

ÁZË{Y€e

ÄË¿Yƒ

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0Km 2000Km 4000Km

ÃZ¼‹¶°‹

ÁZË{Y€e

ÄË¿Yƒ

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0Km 2000Km 4000Km

(7)

Archive of SID

ÃZ¼‹¶°‹

ÁZË{Y€e

ÄË¿Yƒ

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0Km 2000Km 4000Km

ÃZ¼‹¶°‹

ÁZË{Y€e

ÄË¿Yƒ

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0Km 2000Km 4000Km

(8)

Archive of SID

ÃZ¼‹¶°‹

ÁZË{Y€e

ÄË¿Yƒ

ZŶ°‹

ÉZŁÁ{ZË{Y€eÉYÂÅÉZÅ´·Y

ÄË¿YƒºÅ{ZeºŒ‹

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0Km 2000Km 4000Km

{Á€§Â^Ÿ½Z»¾ËY{µZ°‡ZaÂf°ÅÁY€e{

½Y€ËYY€§YÄ¿Y€fË|»|À¸]

Ê»Ã|ÅZŒ»

{‹

{Ád‡YÃŻÉZË{ÉÁ€]ÄË¿YƒºŒ‹Á{ºfˆÌ‡¾ËY‚¯€»

Ê»‰€fˆ³©€‹d¼‡Ä]| ]ÉZŁÁ

€]{Y½Y€ËYÊuY¿¹Z¼e½M|À¸]{Á€§Á|]ZË

Ê»

{€Ì³ YÂÅ|Ë|‹{ ÁZŒ§ŠÅZ¯\m»½Y€ËYÉÁYÉÂmºfˆÌ‡¾ËYÂ^Ÿ

Ê»

‹ { ĿY€fË|»ÁÊ¿Y{‡ºfˆÌ‡Á{Ê¿Z»‚¼Å

{|Ë|‹‰Z]Á€]\m»½Z»¾ËY{ÉY

d‡YÃ|‹Ä¬˜À»¾ËY

Ä¿Y€fË|»ºfˆÌ‡

Ê»ºÅY€§Ä¬˜À»{Y{ –ËY€‹ÉY

Á|À¯

‰Z] ZÌ¿ {» ½YÁY€§ d]— ºÅ Ê¿Y{‡ ºfˆÌ‡

Ê» ºÅY€§ Y ¾Ì´À‡ ÉZÅ

|À¯

Y

ÁÊËY€´¼Å,{Á€§\¬Ÿ{įZn¿M

{

Ê»{ZnËYÊËY€³YÁ½M¸m

{‹

,Ê¿Zn̸Ÿ

,

Ê»{ZnËYÉ{¼Ÿd¯€uk»€Ë{,cY€Ì̤e¾ËY½YÂeœÀ»Ä]

{‹

d¯€u¾ËY

Ê»{Á€§\¬Ÿ{YÂŵÁ‚¿Á¸m{YÂÅ{ \^‡É{¼Ÿ

{‹

¸m{ÄnÌf¿{

Ê»{ZnËY¾Ì»t˜‡{ÉY|ËZaµZu½M\¬Ÿ{ÁÉY|ËZaZ¿{Á€§

{‹

¾ËYc|‹

{Y{Ê´fˆ]É{¼Ÿd¯€uc|‹Ä]ÉY|ËZaZËÉY|ËZaZ¿

É{¼Ÿd¯€uc|‹€³Y

º¯{Á€§Â¸m{|‹Z]{Zˁ

Ê»{ZnËYZŒ§€a½M\¬Ÿ{ÁZŒ§

{‹

(9)

Archive of SID

ÃZ¼‹¶°‹

Y€e

ÁµZ°‡ZaÂf°Å

ÄË¿Yƒ

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0Km 2000Km 4000Km

ÃZ¼‹¶°‹

Y€e

ÁµZ°‡ZaÂf°Å

ÄË¿Yƒ

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0Km 2000Km 4000Km

(10)

Archive of SID

‹ ÃZ¼‹¶°

Y€e

ÁµZ°‡ZaÂf°Å

ÄË¿Yƒ

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0Km 2000Km 4000Km

ÃZ¼‹¶°‹

Y€e

ÁµZ°‡ZaÂf°Å

ÄË¿Yƒ

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0Km 2000Km 4000Km

(11)

Archive of SID

ÃZ¼‹¶°‹

Y€e

ÁµZ°‡ZaÂf°Å

ÄË¿Yƒ

¶°‹

t˜‡ÉYÂÅÉZÅ´·Y

ÄË¿YƒºÅ{ZeºŒ‹ÉZŁÁ{µZ°‡ZaÂf°Å

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0Km 2000Km 4000Km

Ȭ¿Ê‡€]

Å t˜‡{YÂÅÉZ

Á Ê»½ZŒ¿µZ°‡ZaÂf°Å

ÉZŁÁ{į|Å{

Z]Ád‡YÃ|¿Z‹ÂaY½Y€ËYÊ]ÂÀmÊuY¿Ê]€£|À¸]{Á€§É¸m,ÄË¿YƒºÆ¿ÁºfŒÅ ʸv»{ –ËY€‹{ÂmÁÄ]ÄmÂe

º¯d]—Y¶Zu

Ê¿Y{‡ZŒ§

Ê¿ZƳZ¿{ ,

·»¯ Á …·»¯ ÉZŀ]Y ¶Ì°Œe Z] Á Ã{Y{ w ÂÅ

‰Z] ,…Â^¼Ì¿

{ ÉZ^³ ÉZÅ

d‡YÃ|‹¶Ì‡\m»ÁÄf‡ÂÌaÂ«ÁÄ]Ĭ˜À»

ɀ̳ÄnÌf¿

ŠÌa

‰Z] Â«Á ÊÀÌ]

¶Ì‡ Á ¾Ì´À‡ ÉZÅ

Ê» Z‡M Ä»Z¿€] |¿YÂe

{ Y ½Y€Ë|» Á ½Y‚Ë

cZˆy Á€] Y ɀ̴ŒÌa

|Å{ ÉZË ¾Ì´À‡ ÉZÅ ÉY€] ‰Á ¾Ë€e€^f » Á ¾Ë€fÆ]

ŠÌa

‰Z]Â«ÁÊÀÌ]

Á|Ë|‹ÉZÅ

¶Ì‡

¶Ì¸veYÃ{Z¨f‡Y,Z‡M

d‡YʰÌfaÂÀ̇ÉZÅ

Ä]

Ä¿Z»Z‡|ËZ]Y|f]YœÀ»¾ËY

‰Z]|m»ÉÂmÉZÅ

Z]Á{¼¿ÊËZ‡ZÀ‹Y|Ë|‹ÉZÅ

ŠÌa Y€¬f‡Yž«Â»Ä]ÊÀÌ]

 Ä¿Z»Z‡¾ËY

‰Z]Â«Á,ZÅ

ŠÌaY|Ë|‹ÉZÅ

{¼¿ÊÀÌ]

(12)

Archive of SID

µZ‡ÄË¿YƒºÆ¿Á{

‡Y[ÂÀm{¾Ì´À‡‰Z]É{ÔÌ»

\m»€Æ‹Â]½Zf

d‡YÃ|‹Ä¬˜À»Ä]|Ë|‹cZˆyÁ¶Ì‡Á€]

½Z´À¯ÃZ´fˆËY{Á¾ËY{

€Ë{|À]{Á€f¼Ì¸Ì»

Z]€f¼Ì¸Ì»

Y d‡YÃ|ËZ]½

Ä¿Z»Z‡dÌ “Áʇ€]

‰Z]¾ÌÀqÂ«Á¹Z´ÀÅÁ¶^«ÉÂmÉZÅ

Ê»½ZŒ¿ÊËZÅ

|Å{

‰Z]¾ËYÁ€]į

º¯ºfˆÌ‡{ÁÁ€iY€]€fŒÌ]ZÅ

[€£[ÂÀmÁ[ÂÀmYÊ¿Y{‡ZŒ§

‰Z],|‹Z]ÃY€¼Åʸv»{ –ËY€‹Z]€³Yįd‡Y½Zf‡Y¾ËYÄ]

{ZnËYÉ|Ë|‹ÉZÅ

Ê»

|À¯

º¯{ÁÁ½Z»{€³Y

ÃY€¼ÅÄ]Ê]€£ÉZÅ{Z]k»,½Y€ËYÄ]Ê¿Y{‡ÉZÅZŒ§

ºfˆÌ‡

Ä¿Y€fË|»ÉZÅ

‡Á{¾ËY\̯€e,|À‹Z]Äf‹Y{‰€fˆ³½Y€ËYÉÁ€]ºÅÉY ºfˆÌ

Ê»

‰Z]|¿YÂe

|ËZ¼¿{ZnËYYɀe|Ë|‹ÉZÅ

Ä¿Z»Z‡Â«ÁျY¾ËYÄ]ÄmÂeZ]

Äf¨ÅY¦¸fz»ÉÂmZÅ

ŠÌa¶]Z«¶^«ZÅ

ÊÀÌ]

Ê»,d‡Y

Ä»Z¿€]Z]½YÂe

dÆmY¹ÓÉZÅY|ŒÅÁ{¼¿¹Y|«Y€»Y¾ËYÄ]\‡ZÀ»É‚Ë

€v]dˀË|»

½YÂf]Ze,{Y{€»Y¾Ì·ÂXˆ»Ä]½Y

Ä»Z¿€]Z]

Ë

cZˆyÁ€]Y\‡ZÀ»É‚

ÉZÅ

{¼¿É€Ì³Â¸m|Ë|‹

(13)

Archive of SID

ZÀ»

]

ž

,µ|Ì]



½YZ]Ê¿Z»žËÂeÉ´·Y,

Ä^e‰ÁÄ]ÃZŒ¿Z»€¯{|Ë|‹ÉZÅ

,ºË€´¸ÌaÉ|À]

†¿Y€¨À¯¾Ì·ÁY

¾Ì]

¶]Y,[M½Y€v]ʸ¸¼·Y `Ìe, ,µ|Ì]

¾Ì]†¿Y€¨À¯¾Ì·ÁY,ÃZŒ¿Z»€¯{ʋZ]ÉYÂÅÉZÅ

¶]Y,[M½Y€v]ʸ¸¼·Y

½ZƨY { Z‡M¶Ì‡ ÉZÅ ºfˆÌ‡ ®ÌfaÂÀ̇ ʇ€] , ½Y€´Ë{ Á ½ ,ÊËZ]Z] kZu

†¿Y€¨À¯ ¾Ì»Á{ ,

¾Ì]

Ê Ì^—Ä^«€f»€Ì£g{YÂu{½Y€v]ž»ZmdˀË|»Ê¸¸¼·Y ¶Ì‡ dˀË|» Á Y|ŒÅ , É ,Ã{Y¾ˆu Ä¿Y€Æ» Ä¿Zy{Á ,É{» Ä ·Z˜»

{Á

¾Ì»Â‡ ,

†¿Y€¨À¯

‚Ë€^e,½Y€ËY[Mž]ZÀ»c|Ë|»

¥,ɀ̷{

µ|»{ÄÌ·ÁY‰€Ì³ÁZ^³`Ìed̼ÅYʇ€],

,[Ô̇Ê]{ɁZ‡

†¿Y€¨À¯¾Ì·ÁY

¾Ì]

¶]Y,[M½Y€v]ʸ¸¼·Y ‰,ÊËZf‡Á

{€]Z¯, GIS

¾Ì]†¿Y€¨À¯¾Ì·ÁY,ɀƋÉZÆ]Ô̇µ€fÀ¯{

¶]Y,[M½Y€v]ʸ¸¼·Y

ŽyZ‹Á‰Z]¶]Z«[M¾ÌÌ eÁʰÌfaÂÀ̇¶Ì¸ve ,Z“€Ì¸Ÿ,ÊÀ̈uÊ«{ZÁÄÀ»M,É{Zn‡

ÉZÅ [‡ÁŠËZ‡€§Ê¸»ŠËZ¼Å¾Ì»Â‡,Œ¯[€£{¶Ì‡Ä]€nÀ»ÉY|ËZaZ¿

,Ê¿Z¼Ì¸‡

¥ Ĭ˜À»¶Ì¸ve,

ÁÂu{[Ô̇ÉY

,®q¯ÉZÅ

¾Ì]†¿Y€¨À¯¾Ì·ÁY

,[M½Y€v]ʸ¸¼·Y

¶]Y

,ʼ̸‡

¹

¶¼fv»‰Z] €j¯Y|u ¾Ì¼ze,

‰ÁZ] ÄfŸZ‡

‰ÁZ]½MĈËZ¬»ÁÉZ»MÉZÅ

,{Z]ZÆ»|‡‚Ë€]MēÂu{ʰÌfaÂÀ̇

¾Ì]†¿Y€¨À¯¾Ì·ÁY

¶]Y,[M½Y€v]ʸ¸¼·Y

ÃZu\ÀmZ¨eY€aºfˆÌ‡Š¬¿, ¹,Âaʇ ʇ

¾Ì»Á{,…Z^Ÿ|À]Ê·Zˆ°Œy{ÉY

ʸ»ŠËZ¼Å

½ZƨY,½MdˀË|»ÉZÅZ°ÅYÁÊ·Zˆ°ŒycY€iY

¹ ,ʠ̨‹

¶¼fv» ‰Z] €j¯Y|u ÉZ»M {ÁM€] ,

Ê¿YÁY€§ \ˀ“ tÌve …Z‡Y €] ÄfŸZ‡

‚Ë€^e,½Y€ËY[Mž]ZÀ»c|Ë|»†¿Y€¨À¯¾Ì»Â‡,|¸Ì¨‹€Å

,ʨËZ—

¶Ì‡cYZˆyYɀ̴ŒÌa{¶Ì‡dˀË|», c|Ë|»†¿Y€¨À¯¾Ì»Â‡,½MŠÅZ¯Á

‚Ë€^e,½Y€ËY[Mž]ZÀ»

[,Ê¿Zn̸Ÿ

ºÌ¸«Y,

®ÌfaÂÀ̇ʇZÀ‹

½Y€Æe,d¼‡cYZŒf¿Y,

½Y€ËY‰Z]Z]ÉÂm‰{€³ÉZÅ´·Y¾Ì]Ę]Y, Y,ÊuZf§

Ê Ì^—t¿Y‡Z]ĸ]Z¬»ŠËZ¼Å¾Ì»Á{,

Ê·Zˆ°ŒyʰÌfaÂÀ̇ ÉZÅ´·Yʇ€] , Y,ÊuZf§

,ÉZÌfz]ÁµZv»ZÆq½Zf‡Y{€Ì³Y€§ÉZÅ

ÃYÁÉZÌfz]ÁµZv»ZÆq½Zf‡Y{Ê·Zˆ°ŒyŠËZ¼Å

{€¯€Æ‹,½MZ]ĸ]Z¬»ÉZÅ

ʇZÀ‹YÂÅÁ[MÊ¿Z^»,µÂ¸Æ],Ê¿Zn̸ŸÁ¹,Ê¿ZËÁZ¯

d¼‡cYZŒf¿Y,

½ZfˆÌ‡ Ĭ˜À»{{Z]Ƀ€¿Y®ÌfaÂÀ̇ ʇ€] ,Y ,Z°»|À³ Ä»Z¿ ½ZËZa ,¶”¨·YÂ]Y ,½ZË{ ˆ» ,

½ZƨYÃZ´Œ¿Y{ʇZÀ‹ºÌ¸«Yɀf¯{

,Y ,Z°»|À³

‰Z] ʰÌfaÂÀ̇ ¶Ì¸ve

¶Ì‡ ÉZÅ Ã|ÀËY Ä¿Zy{Á Ê¿ZÌ» Šz] ÉZ‡M

{Á

¾Ì»Á{ ,

Ê Ì^—t¿Y‡Z]ĸ]Z¬»ŠËZ¼Å , Y,Z°»|À³ f‡YZ]¶Ì‡Â«ÁY|ŒÅ¹ÔŸY

ʰÌfaÂÀ̇¶Ì¸veYÃ{Z¨

dˀË|»†¿Y€¨À¯¾Ì»Â‡,

‚Ë€^e,½Y€ËY[Mž]ZÀ»

Y,Z°»|À³

ÁÊ·Zˆ°ŒycY€iYʸ»ŠËZ¼Å¾Ì»Á{,Ê·‚¿Y|À]{Ê·Zˆ°ŒyʰÌfaÂÀ̇¶Ì¸ve,

½ZƨY,½MdˀË|»ÉZÅZ°ÅY

…,½ZË{ ˆ»

,É|‡YÁ Y µZ‡[Ô̇®ÌfaÂÀ̇ʇ€],

Y€Ì‹

ʸ»†¿Y€¨À¯¾Ì»Á{,

­ZyÁ[Mž]ZÀ»

,½ZË{ ˆ»

…

‰Z] Z] ÃY€¼Å |Ë|¼Å –ËY€‹ ÊËZ‡ZÀ‹ ,

†¿Y€¨À¯ ¾Ì»Â‡ ,½Y€ËY ¾Ì´À‡€]Y ÉZÅ

‚Ë€^e,½Y€ËY[Mž]ZÀ»c|Ë|»

(14)

Archive of SID

23- Yarnal, B (1993), Synoptic climatology in environmental analysis: a primer.

UK, London: Belhaven.

References (in Persian)

1. Bidel, R., 2008, Pattern of Time Distribution of Heavy Rain in Kermanshah by Pilgrim Ranking,1st International Conference on Water crisis, Zabol.

2. Bidel, R., 2008, Rainy Weather Types in Kermanshah,1st International Conference on Water crisis, Zabol.

3. Hajibabaie, N.,et al, A Synoptic Study of Torrential System in Esfahan, 2nd International Conference on Comprehensive Management of Crisis in Natural Unprecedented Events.

4. Hassanzadeh, Y. 2008, Warning &Management of Flood, Case Study, Mehranehroud River, 3rd Conference on Management of Water Resources In Iran, Tabriz.

5. Daliri, F., 2008, Survey of the Importance of Rain Types and the Initial take-up in Debi modeling of Flood Water, 1st International Conference on Water crisis, Zabol.

6. Roostaie, SH., 2008, Use of GIS in Controlling City Water-Flood, 1st International Conference on Water crisis, Zabol.

7. Sajjadi, A., Sadeghi Hosseini, A. 2005, A Synoptic Analysis, Determining Degree of Rainfall and Instability Features Resulting in Flood in Western Iran, 3rd conference of erosion and dissemination.

8. Soleimani, F. 2008, Regional Analysis of Water Flood in Small Domains, 1st International Conference on Water crisis, Zabol.

9. Salami, M., 2008, Estimating Maximum Possible Rainfall in 24 Hours by the Use Statistical Methods and Comparing it with Synoptic Method in Mahabad Watershed Area. 1st International Conference on Water crisis, Zabol.

10. Sisipour,M., 2008, Role of High and Tropical Altitude System in Bandarabbas Drought, 2nd National Conference on the Effects of Draught and Strategies of its Management, Esfahan.

11. Shafie, M., 2008, Statistical Estimation of Maximum Possible Rainfall in 24 Hours According to Hirschfields Frequency coefficient, 3rd Conference on Management of Water Resources In Iran, Tabriz.

12. Taefi, A., Management of Flood in Preventing and Decreasing flood Damage, 3rd Conference on Management of Water Resources in Iran, Tabriz.

13. Alijani, B., 2002, Synoptic Climatology, Samat Publication, Tehran.

14. Fattahi, E., 2007, Relationship between Atmospheric Circular Patterns and Rainfall in Iran, 2nd Conference on Competing Natural events.

15. Fattahi, E., 2008, Study of Synoptic Patterns of Extensive Drought in Chaharmahal Bakhtyari Province, Conference on Drought in Chaharmahal Bakhtyari Province & Ways to Compete it, Shahrekord.

16. Kaviani M., Alijani, B., 1992, Principles of Study of Meteorology, Samt Publication.

17. Gandomkar, A. Masoudian A., 2006, Synoptic Study of Wind Energy in Sistan Region, Ph.D. Thesis in Climatology, Esfahan University.

18. Gandomkar, A.2007, Synoptic Analysis of Torrential Rains in the Middel Part of Zayandehroud River, 2nd Conference on Competing Natural events.

(15)

Archive of SID

19. Gandomkar, A.2008, Warning for Occurrence of Flood Using Synoptic Analysis, 3rd Conference on Management of Water Resources in Iran, Tabriz.

20. Gandomkar, A.2009, Synoptic Analysis of Drought in Bandar Anzali, 2nd National Conference on the Effects of Draught and Strategies of its Management, Esfahan.

21. Masoudian, S. A., Asadi, A., 2004, Synoptic Study of Water Flood in Shiraz,1380, 2nd National Conference of Soil &Water Resources.

22. Masoudian, S. A.,2008, Recognition of Synoptic Conditions Along With Heavy Cloud Rainfalls in Iran, 3rd Conference on Management of Water Resources in Iran, Tabriz.

Referensi

Dokumen terkait

Social Network Analysis of Local Stakeholders in Action Plan for Water Resources Co-Management Case study: Jajrood River in Latian watershed, Darbandsar village, Iran- Watershed

Department of Plant Protection, East-Azarbaijan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization AREEO, Tabriz, Iran..

Antman EM, et al, ACC/AHA guidelines for the management of patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction: a report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association

Food and Drug Safety Research Center,Health Management and Safety Promotion Research Institute,Tabriz University of Medical Sciences,Tabriz,Iran Received: 2017/05/19

 Cooperation in Mekong River Water Resources Management: In order to strengthen cooperation in the management of Mekong River water resources, the four member countries of the Mekong

5- da Silva Paula, M.M., et al., Synthesis, characterization and antibacterial activity studies of poly-{styrene-acrylic acid} with silver nanoparticlesJ. Gade, Silver nanoparticles

Key words: Hospital waste safety, Public hospitals, Tehran University of medical sciences 1-Ph.D Student,Health Services Management, , Health Management and Economics Department,

“Precipitation forecasting using regression tree model to flood control.” 5th International watershed and water and soil resources management, Kerman,