A. Outlook on global oil supply and demand
In the March 2011 issue of the “Oil Market Report”, IEA expected that global oil demand in 2010 reached 87.9 million b/d, a year-on-year rise of approximately 2.9 million b/d. It forecasted that global oil demand in 2011 will be roughly 89.4 million b/d, a rise of around 1.4 million b/d.
Forecasted oil demand was raised due to the increase of the forecast for non-OECD countries in Asia and increased records in the Middle East.
In 2011, non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGL supply are forecast to be around 53.6 million b/d and 5.9 million b/d, a year-on-year rise of approximately 0.8 million b/d and 0.6 million b/d.
Demand for OPEC oil in 2010 is estimated at 29.2 million b/d, a year-on-year increase of 0.5 million b/d. Forecasts in the previous month were maintained.
Notes: Asia* refers to Asian developing countries excluding China Source: IEA, Oil Market Report, March issue
ChapterⅢEnergy Demand Outlook for 2011
91 http://www.keei.re.kr
Outlook on the international oil market
1
(Unit: Million b/d)
Category Year Year 2010 2009
Year 2011
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 averageAnnual 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 averageAnnual
OECD 45.4 45.9 45.2 46.6 46.7 46.1 46.4 45.1 46.2 46.5 46.0
North America 23.3 23.6 23.8 24.2 24.0 23.9 23.9 23.7 24.2 24.0 24.0 Europe 14.5 14.2 14.1 14.8 14.7 14.4 14.2 14.1 14.6 14.6 14.4
Asia Pacific 7.7 8.2 7.3 7.6 8.0 7.8 8.3 7.3 7.4 7.9 7.7
Non OECD 39.6 40.6 41.9 42.1 42.6 41.8 42.6 43.4 43.7 43.6 43.3
China 8.4 8.9 9.4 9.2 10.0 9.4 9.9 10.0 9.9 10.1 10.0
Asia* 10.1 10.4 10.5 10.1 10.5 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.4 10.8 10.6
World 85.0 86.5 87.1 88.7 89.4 87.9 89.0 88.4 89.9 90.1 89.4
<TableⅢ-1> IEA’s global oil consumption figures and forecasts 수요전망 내지13-1 영문 2011.5.20 3:26 PM 페이지91 매일3 MAC2PDF_IN 300DPI 125LPI T
B. International oil price outlook
International oil prices (Dubai) are expected to record an annual average $89.17/barrel in 2011, a year-on-year rise of 14%, in tandem with continued global economic recovery and the resulting steady rise in oil demand.
Source: Korea Energy Economics Institute, International Crude Oil Market Conditions in 2011 and Oil Price Outlook, January 2011
CERA forecasts that Dubai oil prices will reach $96.77/barrel in 2011, a year-on-year rise of 24%, and $96.09/barrel in 2012, a year-on-year drop of 0.7%.
Notes: CGES: Center for Global Energy Studies (London) CERA: Cambridge Energy Research Associates EIA: US Energy Information Administration PIRA: PIRA Energy Group
92 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE
KEEIKorea Energy Demand Outlook
(Unit: $/Bbl)
Scenario 2010 2011
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual
Base oil price 91.49 89.38 88.36 87.44 89.17
High oil price 78.13 93.76 98.54 100.89 102.07 98.81
Low oil price 87.46 79.88 73.83 70.21 77.85
<TableⅢ-2> Oil price outlook for 2010 and 2011 (Dubai oil)
(Unit: $/Bbl)
Category Year Year 2011
2010
Year 2012
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 averageAnnual 1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 averageAnnual
CGES Brent(D) 79.9 97.5 103.2 103.2 98.9 100.7 - - - - -
Dubai 78.07 97.64 98.87 94.84 95.72 96.77 92.02 95.01 96.06 98.29 96.09 CERA Brent(D) 79.47 100.97 102.33 98.33 98.00 99.91 97.67 98.66 99.66 100.66 99.16 WTI 79.45 90.19 94.00 91.67 93.67 92.38 93.67 94.66 95.66 96.66 95.16 EIA WTI 79.40 93.25 103.83 105.00 105.00 101.77 105.83 105.00 104.17 104.00 104.75 PIRA Brent 79.45 106.90 118.35 112.00 114.50 112.95 - - - - -
WTI 79.40 94.30 108.50 106.85 107.50 104.30 - - - - -
<TableⅢ-3> Oil price outlook of key overseas organizations in March 수요전망 내지13-1 영문 2011.5.20 3:26 PM 페이지92 매일3 MAC2PDF_IN 300DPI 125LPI T
