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Korea Energy Demand Outlook (Volume 13; No.4)

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A. Trends in coal consumption

Coal demand for industrial use went up 4.5% from January through October as a result of rapid growth in the industrial sector (13.2%) in the third quarter of 2011. Consumption for power generation also went up 3.6%. Overall, coal consumption posted a year-on-year rise of 3.8% to reach 102,524 thousand tons.

Notes: Values in parentheses are the year-on-year growth rate (%); p refers to tentative figures.

88 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE

KEEIKorea Energy Demand Outlook

Trends in coal and other energy consumption

7

(Unit: 1,000 tons)

Category

2010 2011p

1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4 2/4 3/4 October January~October

<TableⅡ-13> Trends in coal consumption

Anthracite 2,540 2,463 2,264 2,836 10,103 2,806 2,289 2,708 1,037 8,838 (-1.3) (31.7) (-12.6) (3.4) (3.3) (10.5) (-7.1) (19.6) (16.5) (8.4)

Residential/ 563 236 218 842 1,859 550 172 225 314 1,261

commercial (-8.9) (14.6) (-4.8) (-5.2) (-4.2) (-2.3) (-27.1) (3.2) (4.7) (-4.3) Industrial 1,758 2,045 1,834 1,768 7,406 2,117 1,988 2,035 683 7,113 (8.5) (51.7) (-8.7) (18.0) (14.4) (20.4) (-2.8) (11.0) (36.3) (15.9)

Power 219 182 212 226 839 139 129 156 40 464

generation (-34.4) (-42.4) (-39.9) (-36.7) (-38.3) (-36.5) (-29.1) (-26.4) (-55.1) (-33.9) Bituminous 28,122 25,434 28,014 27,647 109,218 27,615 26,483 29,504 10,084 93,686 coal (25.7) (9.6) (5.3) (4.6) (10.8) (-1.8) (4.1) (5.3) (11.6) (3.4)

steel 7,354 6,176 5,809 6,163 25,502 6,240 6,491 6,378 2,275 21,384

manufacturing (61.6) (29.1) (4.4) (5.6) (23.0) (-15.1) (5.1) (9.8) (13.0) (0.1)

cement 933 1,317 1,077 1,237 4,564 1,052 1,423 1,228 474 4,177

(12.7) (-2.7) (-2.9) (5.5) (2.3) (12.8) (8.0) (14.0) (21.2) (12.3)

other 665 592 559 661 2,478 689 605 570 193 2,057

industries (9.0) (12.4) (1.3) (5.8) (7.1) (3.6) (2.2) (1.9) (-4.6) (1.9) power 19,170 17,349 20,569 19,586 76,674 19,634 17,964 21,328 7,142 66,068 generation (17.0) (4.9) (6.2) (8.4) (7.9) (2.4) (3.5) (3.7) (11.1) (4.0)

Coal 30,662 27,898 30,278 30,484 119,321 30,421 28,772 32,211 11,120 102,524 total (22.9) (11.2) (3.8) (4.5) (10.1) (-0.8) (3.1) (6.4) (12.1) (3.8) 수요전망 내지13-4 영문 2012.3.8 4:2 PM 페이지88 매일3 MAC2PDF_IN 600DPI 125LPI T

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From January through October, bituminous coal consumption for power generation and for industrial use went up 4.0% and 2.0%, respectively. Overall bituminous coal consumption posted a 3.4% rise year-on-year to reach 93,686 thousand tons.

Consumption of bituminous coal for steel production, which takes up the highest percentage (62%) of coal consumption for industrial use, recorded 21,384 thousand tons, which is similar to the consumed amount recorded in the same period of the previous year, owing to base effects.

- Bituminous coal consumption for steel making recorded high growth in the first half of 2010, thus leading an overall rise in coal consumption. However, the level of increase has been slowing down substantially since the third quarter of 2010.24)

Notes: Values in parentheses are the year-on-year growth rate (%); p refers to tentative figures.

Source: Korea Iron & Steel Association (steeldata DB), Monthly Report on Energy Statistics

Consumption of bituminous coal in the cement industry continued a downward trend starting from the first quarter of 2010. However, it indicated a rapid increase from January through October 2011, posting a year-on-year rise of 12.3% to reach 4,177 thousand tons.

ChapterⅡEconomic and Energy Consumption Trends in Korea

89 http://www.keei.re.kr Category

2010p 2011p

1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4 2/4 3/4

(Unit: 1,000 tons, %)

Pig iron 8,266 8,788 8,411 9,600 35,065 10,240 10,540 10,675

production (42.9) (35.9) (15.2) (24.2) (28.5) (23.9) (19.9) (26.9) Consumption

of bituminous 7,354 6,176 5,810 6,084 25,424 6,240 6,491 6,378

coal for steel (61.6) (29.1) (4.4) (4.3) (22.6) (-15.1) (5.1) (9.8)

production

<TableⅡ-14> Pig iron production and bituminous coal consumption for steel making

24) Such recent trends in bituminous coal consumption for steel making have a huge gap with the industry's energy intensity - the ratio of bituminous coal consumption for steel making to pig iron production - which maintained a certain ratio. As such, there is a possibility of an error in compiling statistics.

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- Bituminous coal consumption in the cement industry rapidly rose from January through October 2011 because the import price of bituminous coal is continually going up, and cement manufacturers are importing more bituminous coal before import prices go up further25).

From January through October 2011, bituminous coal consumption for power generation posted a year-on-year rise of 4.0% to reach 66,068 thousand tons.

- No new bituminous coal-based power generation facilities were built after the construction of Yeongheung Thermal Power Plant Unit 4 and Hadong Thermal Power Plant Unit 8 in 2009. However, existing facilities were continually used at the maximum level.

From January through October, anthracite consumption marked a year-on-year increase of 8.4% to reach 8,838 thousand tons.

- Anthracite consumption for residential/commercial use and for power generation posted a year-on-year drop of 4.3% and 33.9%, respectively.

- Consumption for industrial use, which accounts for the highest percentage of overall consumption, indicated rapid growth and recorded a year-on-year increase of 15.9%.

- Anthracite consumption for residential/commercial use has continuously been on a downward trend after the second quarter of 2010, when it posted a rapid increase because of abnormally low temperatures.

- Anthracite consumption for industrial use, which is used as fuel for co-generation, is on an upward trend.

90 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE

KEEIKorea Energy Demand Outlook

25) Coal statistics are based on domestic import statistics. As such, changes in statistics may be somewhat different from business conditions in the short term according to the industry’s inventory and production activity.

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B. Trends in consumption of thermal energy, new & renewable energy, and other energy

From January through October 2011, thermal energy consumption indicated year-on-year growth of 3.1% to reach 1,280 thousand TOE.

The amount of consumption is steadily rising despite a slight slowdown in the dissemination of district heating, a result of the sluggish construction business. This is due to charges that are more affordable than other sources of energy and continued economic recovery.

- Heating prices were raised 6.9% in September, but remain affordable compared to other energy sources. The increase in prices is assessed as having little impact on reducing consumption.

It is estimated that consumption of new & renewable energy and other energy recorded a year-on-year rise of 4.1% to reach 4,561 thousand TOE from January through October 2011.

Notes: Values in parentheses are the year-on-year growth rate (%); p refers to tentative figures.

ChapterⅡEconomic and Energy Consumption Trends in Korea

91 http://www.keei.re.kr

(Unit: 1,000 TOE)

Category 2010 2011p

1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4 Annual 1/4 2/4 3/4 October January~October

<TableⅡ-15> Trends in consumption of thermal energy, new & renewable energy, and other energy

Thermal 805 254 93 566 1,718 835 243 110 91 1,280

energy (12.4) (25.2) (4.0) (4.4) (10.8) (3.8) (-4.3) (18.5) (1.0) (3.1) New &

renewable 1,309 1,303 1,316 1,418 5,346 1,368 1,368 1,307 518 4,561

energy/Other (13.4) (9.7) (16.1) (2.0) (9.9) (4.5) (5.0) (-0.7) (14.6) (4.1) energy

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