Primary energy demand is expected to rise at an annual average rate of 2.7% from 2012 through 2017 and reach 317.8 million toe in 2017.
The rate of increase in energy demand is not expected to be high in 2013 due to the economic downturn. However, the increase in energy demand will likely begin to accelerate in 2014, when the economy is expected to enter a full recovery.
This is somewhat lower than the economic growth rate (annual average of 3.6%) of the same period.
* Economic growth rate (annual average, %): (’07~’12) 2.9 →(’12~’17) 3.6
* Primary energy increase rate (annual average, %): (’07~’12) 3.3 →(’12~’17) 2.7
Outlook on major indicators related to energy
Energy intensity is forecast to improve by an annual average rate of 0.7%, declining from 0.251 in 2012 to 0.241 in 2017.
* Energy intensity (toe/KRW 1 million): (’07) 0.247 →(’12) 0.251 →(’17) 0.241 Per-capita energy demand is expected to rise at an annual average rate of 2.3% in tandem with an increase in income levels. It will likely go up from 5.55 toe in 2012 to around 6.23 toe in 2017.
[FigureⅢ-1] Outlook on primary energy demand
* Per-capita energy consumption (toe): (’07) 4.87 →(’12) 5.55 →(’17) 6.23
- Per-capita energy consumption should remain high compared to major OECD countries.
* Comparison with other countries in per-capita energy consumption (Year 2011):
(OECD average) 4.29, (Japan) 3.61, (Germany) 3.76, (UK) 3.03, (US) 7.03
The GDP elasticity of primary energy demand from 2012 through 2017 should be around 0.8.
* GDP elasticity of energy consumption: (’07~’12) 1.1 →(’12~’17) 0.8
Notes: 1) The figures in parentheses are annual growth rates (%).
2) p indicates that the figures are preliminary. * refers to elasticity during the period between 2012 and 2017.
Category
Annual average change (%) (2012~2017)
2012p 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GDP 1,104 1,134 1,181 1,227 1,273 1,318
(KRW trillions) (2.0) (2.8) (4.1) (3.9) (3.7) (3.6) 3.6
Estimated
population 50.0 50.2 50.4 50.6 50.8 51.0 0.5
(Million persons) Primary energy
277.6 283.3 292.8 300.9 309.2 317.8
consumption 2.7
(Million toe) (0.7) (2.0) (3.4) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8)
Per-capita
consumption 5.55 5.64 5.81 5.94 6.09 6.23 2.3
(toe) GDP elasticity
of energy 0.34 0.74 0.82 0.71 0.75 0.77 0.76*
consumption (1.01) Energy intensity
(toe/KRW 0.251 0.250 0.248 0.245 0.243 0.241 -0.8
1 million)
<TableⅢ-1> Outlook on major economic and energy consumption indicators
Outlook by energy source
Oil demand is projected to rise at an annual average rate of 1.0% from 2012 through 2017.
- Oil demand for fuel will likely decline at an annual average rate of 0.6% during the forecast period due to the high oil prices. However, naphtha demand for raw material use in the petrochemical industry will go up at an annual average of 2.5% to lead the growth in overall oil demand.
Coal demand is projected to rise at an annual average rate of 4.7% during the forecast period.
- Bituminous coal demand is forecast to indicate annual growth of 4.8% during the forecast period as it is expected that demand for power generation will significantly rise at an annual average rate of 5.5%.
- Bituminous coal demand for power generation will likely remain stagnant through 2013 since there are no plans to build new power generation facilities. However, a substantial rise in demand is expected as a result of large-scale facility expansion1)from
[FigureⅢ-2] Outlook on major energy consumption indicators
1) New power generation facilities with total capacity of 12,520 MW (15 facilities) are planned to be built over four years. By the end of 2017, facility capacity will likely rise 53.5% from 2013's capacity of 23,409 MW.
2014 through 2017 according to the 6th Electricity Supply and Demand Plan.
- Anthracite demand is forecast to indicate an annual average increase of 4.0% during the forecast period owing to a slowdown in demand for industrial use, which recorded a two-digit annual average increase rate since 2000.
LNG demand is forecast to rise at an annual average rate of 1.7% during the forecast period. The rate of increase is projected to decelerate considerably relative to the period of 2007 to 2012, when demand increased at an annual average rate of 7.6%.
- LNG demand for town gas production is projected to rise at an annual average rate of 3.6% during the forecast period as a result of an increase in town gas consumption for industrial use, which should rise at an annual average rate of 6.4%.
- LNG demand for power generation, which is used to handle peak load, will likely drop in 2016 and 2017 as a result of large-scale establishment of new nuclear power and coal-fired power generation facilities.
Nuclear power generation is projected to rise at an annual average rate of 5.0% during the forecast period. New power plants will be established from 2013 through 2017 according to the power supply plan.
- New nuclear power plants with total capacity of 5,200 MW will be built during the forecast period. Accordingly, total facility capacity will rise from 20,716 MW in 2012 to 25,916 MW in 2017.
- Construction is expected to be completed for Sinwolseong Nuclear Power Plant Unit 2 (1,000 MW) and Singori Nuclear Power Plant Unit 3 (1,400 MW) in 2013; for Singori Nuclear Power Plant Unit 4 (1,400 MW) in 2014; and for Sinuljin Nuclear Power Plant Unit 1 (1,400 MW) in 2017.
Consumption of new & renewable energy is expected to rise at a relatively high annual average rate of between 5 and 6% during the forecast period.
Electricity demand will likely continue high growth of an annual average 3.7% during the forecast period, led by demand for industrial use, which should rise at an annual average rate of 4.1%.
- This is somewhat higher than the annual average economic growth rate of 3.6% during the same period.
Outlook on energy mix
The share of primary energy demand accounted for by oil peaked at 63% in 1994 and has been steadily declining ever since. It dropped to 38.2% in 2012. It is projected to continue to fall during the forecast period to between 35 and 36% by 2017.
The share accounted for by LNG went up to 18.1% in 2012, an outcome of a sharp rise in consumption. It will likely continue an upward trend through 2015 (18.7%). The share is expected to decline to 17.2% in 2017 as a result of decreased LNG demand for power generation starting in 2016.
If new nuclear power plants become operational according to the 6th Electricity Supply and Demand Plan, the total share of primary energy accounted for by nuclear power will likely go up from 11.4% in 2012 to 12.7% in 2017.
The share taken up by coal continually went up in the 2000s owing to a rapid increase in coal consumption for power generation and industrial use. It is forecast to rise from 29.1% in 2012 to 31.8% in 2017, owing to the establishment of new bituminous coal- fired power generation facilities between 2014 and 2017 and the resulting increase in demand.
[FigureⅢ-3] Outlook on rate of increase in primary energy demand by energy source
Energy demand by sector
Final energy demand is forecast to rise at an annual average rate of 2.4% from 2012 through 2017 and reach 233.0 million toe by 2017.
Energy demand in the industrial sector is expected to rise at a robust annual average rate of 2.8% on the assumption that the actual economic growth rate will match the potential growth rate (annual average of 3.6%) during the same period.
- Industrial production is expected to lead economic growth during the forecast period.
Energy demand in the industrial sector is forecast to increase relatively quickly.
- Oil accounted for 53% of energy consumption in the industrial sector in 2012. Oil demand is expected to rise at an annual average rate of 2.8% owing to a steady rise in demand for raw material use. Electricity and town gas will likely indicate relatively high annual average increases of 4.1% and 6.1% respectively.
The rate of increase in energy demand in the transport sector is expected to fall to an annual average of 1.5% as the number of registered cars should nearly reach the saturation level during the forecast period.
- Oil demand for transport will likely increase by an annual average of 1.4%, while town gas is expected to record an annual average rise of 3.6% due to increased use of CNG buses.
Energy demand in the residential/commercial/public sector is projected to rise at an annual average rate of 1.9% during the forecast period.
[FigureⅢ-4] Outlook on consumption share of each energy source
- Demand for electricity and town gas is projected to rise at annual average rates of 3.3%
and 1.7%, respectively. Oil demand is forecast to fall at an annual average rate of 2.6%
as a result of replacement of oil for fuel by other energy sources.
Demand in the industrial sector will increase relatively rapidly during the forecast period.
The share of consumption taken up by the industrial sector will likely go up by 1.2%p. In contrast, the shares accounted for by the transport sector and residential/
commercial/public sector are expected to decline 0.7%p and 0.5%p, respectively.
[FigureⅢ-5] Outlook on rate of increase in demand by final energy sector
[FigureⅢ-6] Outlook on share of consumption of each final energy sector
<Table 2>
Notes: 1) The new energy conversion factor (Article 1 of the Enforcement Regulations of the Basic Energy Act) was applied to the calculation of the forecast figures for 2012 and onwards. If the previous energy conversion factor is applied, the rate of increase in primary energy demand in 2012 is 2.6% (2.0% when excluding demand for raw material use). For 2013 and onwards, the increase rate is about the same between the previous and new energy conversion factor.
2) p indicates that the figures are preliminary. The figures in parentheses are annual growth rates (%).
Category
Annual average change (%) (2012~2017)
2012p 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
827.4 836.0 839.5 850.0 859.4 868.0 1.0
(3.2) (1.0) (0.4) (1.3) (1.1) (1.0)
411.9 408.1 399.8 399.3 398.9 398.9 -0.6
(-0.4) (-0.9) (-2.0) (-0.1) (-0.1) (0.0)
128.0 129.6 132.6 137.8 148.1 161.2 4.7
(-2.1) (1.2) (2.4) (3.9) (7.5) (8.9)
96.6 97.3 99.1 102.9 112.0 123.8 5.1
(-2.6) (0.8) (1.8) (3.9) (8.8) (10.5)
38.5 39.2 41.7 43.2 43.5 41.8 1.7
(8.1) (1.8) (6.3) (3.8) (0.6) (-3.8)
7.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 -2.5
(-11.5) (-14.2) (2.5) (0.0) (0.0) (0.0)
150.3 165.8 181.8 186.8 186.8 191.7 5.0
(0.1) (10.3) (9.6) (2.8) (0.0) (2.6)
7.2 7.6 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.1 5.0
(8.4) (6.4) (5.2) (4.7) (4.4) (4.1)
277.6 283.3 292.8 300.9 309.2 317.8 2.7
(0.7) (2.0) (3.4) (2.8) (2.8) (2.8)
203.9 207.5 214.6 220.4 226.1 233.2
(0.4) (1.8) (3.4) (2.7) (2.8) (2.9) 2.7
<TableⅢ-2> Primary energy demand outlook
Oil (Million bbl) -Excluding non-energy oil
Coal (Million ton) -Excluding coking coal
LNG (Million ton) Hydro-electric
(TWh) Nuclear power
(TWh) Other (Million toe) Total primary energy
(Million toe) Total primary energy
-Excluding coking coal
Notes: 1) If the previous energy factor is applied, the rate of increase in final energy demand in 2012 is around 2.2%.
For 2013 and onwards, the increase rate is roughly the same between the previous and new energy conversion factor.
2) The figures in parentheses are annual growth rates (%). p indicates that the figures are preliminary.
Category Annual average
change (%) (2012~2017)
2012p 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
127.2 130.0 134.3 138.3 142.1 145.8
(0.3) (2.2) (3.2) (3.0) (2.8) (2.6) 2.8
53.5 54.3 56.1 57.8 59.5 61.2
(-1.6) (1.5) (3.4) (3.1) (3.0) (2.8) 2.7
37.2 37.8 38.5 39.1 39.6 40.1
(0.8) (1.6) (1.9) (1.6) (1.4) (1.3) 1.5
42.9 43.5 44.4 45.3 46.2 47.0
1.9
(1.9) (1.4) (2.1) (2.0) (2.0) (1.7)
207.3 211.3 217.1 222.7 228.0 233.0
(0.7) (2.0) (2.8) (2.5) (2.4) (2.2) 2.4
133.5 135.5 139.0 142.2 145.3 148.3
(0.1) (1.5) (2.6) (2.3) (2.2) (2.1) 2.1
796.5 805.5 816.9 827.7 837.5 846.3
(2.3) (1.1) (1.4) (1.3) (1.2) (1.1) 1.2
381.0 377.6 377.3 376.9 376.9 377.1
(-2.5) (-0.9) (-0.1) (-0.1) (0.0) (0.0) -0.2
9.8 10.4 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.3
(-8.0) (6.6) (4.7) (4.2) (3.9) (3.6) 4.6
38.5 39.3 40.7 42.0 43.3 44.6
(-1.9) (2.1) (3.5) (3.3) (3.0) (2.9) 3.0
7.0 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1
(-6.4) (1.1) (1.3) (-0.3) (-0.7) (-0.9) 0.1
466.6 480.7 501.2 520.7 540.3 559.9
(2.5) (3.0) (4.3) (3.9) (3.8) (3.6) 3.7
23.8 24.7 25.8 26.8 27.7 28.4
(9.7) (4.0) (4.3) (3.9) (3.4) (2.7) 3.6
8,074 8,503 8,841 9,140 9,414 9,667
(7.1) (5.3) (4.0) (3.4) (3.0) (2.7) 3.7
<TableⅢ-3> Final energy demand outlook
Industry (Million toe) -Excluding for raw materials Transport (Million toe) Residential/
commercial/Public (Million toe)
Total (Million toe)
Total -Excluding for raw materials
Oil (Million bbl) -Excluding non-energy oil
Anthracite (Million ton) Bituminous coal
(Million ton) -Excluding coking coal Electricity
(TWh) Town gas (Billion m3) Thermal and other
(Thousand toe)
