Final energy demand is forecast to rise at an annual average rate of 2.4% from 2011 to 2016 and reach 225.7 million TOE by 2016 (according to the new energy conversion factor).
Energy demand in the industrial sector is expected to rise at a robust annual average rate of 3.1% on the assumption that the actual economic growth rate will match the potential growth rate during the period of 2011 to 2016.
- Industrial production is expected to lead economic growth during the forecast period.
Energy demand in the industrial sector is forecast to increase relatively quickly.
The rate of increase in energy demand in the transport sector is expected to fall to an annual average of 1.0% as the number of registered cars should nearly reach the saturation level during the forecast period.
Energy demand in the residential/commercial/public sector is projected to rise gradually at an annual average rate of just under 2.0% during the forecast period.
- Demand for electricity and town gas is projected to rise at annual average rates of 3.3%
and 1.9%, respectively. Oil demand is forecast to fall at an annual average rate of 3.5%
as a result of replacement of oil for fuel by other energy sources.
Regarding final energy demand by energy source, demand for network-based energy, such as electricity and town gas, should rise at relatively high rates. Demand for oil and bituminous coal is projected to rise relatively slowly.
Oil demand is forecast to gradually rise at an annual average rate of 1.8% during the forecast period, with naphtha demand for raw material use leading the increase in demand.
- When excluding naphtha, oil demand is projected to go down by an annual average 0.3%.
Coal demand is projected to rise at a low annual average rate of 2.2% during the forecast period, attributable to a slower increase in demand in the steel industry.
8 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE
KEEI
Korea Energy Demand Outlook
Outlook on final energy demand
2
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Notes: 1) If the previous energy conversion factor is applied, the rate of increase in final energy demand in 2012 is around 2.2%. For 2013 and onwards, the increase rate is roughly the same between the previous and new energy conversion factor.
2) The figures in parentheses are annual growth rates (%); p indicates that the figures are preliminary.
9 http://www.keei.re.kr
2. Outlook on final energy demand
Category
Annual average increase rate (2011~2016)
2011p 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
121.5 122.7 128.2 132.8 137.0 141.2
(5.5) (1.0) (4.5) (3.6) (3.2) (3.0) 3.1
58.0 58.5 60.8 62.9 65.1 67.3
(5.8) (0.8) (3.9) (3.5) (3.5) (3.3) 3.0
36.8 36.6 37.4 37.9 38.4 38.6
(-0.5) (-0.4) (2.1) (1.4) (1.2) (0.7) 1.0
37.4 37.5 38.3 39.0 39.8 40.5
1.6
(0.4) (0.1) (2.2) (2.0) (2.0) (1.8)
4.5 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3
(0.8) (3.7) (3.5) (3.0) (3.0) (3.0) 3.2
200.2 201.4 208.7 214.7 220.4 225.7
(3.3) (0.6) (3.6) (2.9) (2.6) (2.4) 2.4
136.7 137.3 141.3 144.9 148.5 151.8
(2.4) (0.4) (2.9) (2.5) (2.5) (2.2) 2.1
778.9 785.7 808.4 823.7 837.5 850.1
(1.5) (0.9) (2.9) (1.9) (1.7) (1.5) 1.8
423.7 416.0 418.0 418.2 418.7 418.3
(-2.7) (-1.8) (0.5) (0.0) (0.1) (-0.1) -0.3
10.6 11.1 11.8 12.5 13.3 14.2
(14.8) (3.9) (6.6) (6.5) (6.3) (6.2) 5.9
33.2 34.3 35.2 35.9 36.6 37.1
(2.1) (3.3) (2.7) (2.0) (1.7) (1.5) 2.2
7.5 7.4 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2
(6.8) (-2.0) (-1.2) (-0.7) (-0.5) (-0.5) -1.0
455.1 473.8 497.2 519.4 540.6 560.8
(4.8) (4.1) (4.9) (4.5) (4.1) (3.7) 4.3
21.2 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.3 25.1
(6.2) (3.1) (3.9) (3.5) (3.3) (3.0) 3.4
7,351 7,781 8,303 8,739 9,156 9,549
(4.1) (5.9) (6.7) (5.2) (4.8) (4.3) 5.4
<Table 2> Final energy demand outlook (2011~2016)
Industry (Million toe) -Excluding for raw materials Transport (Million toe) Residential/
commercial (Million toe) Public/other (Million toe) Total (Million toe)
Total -Excluding for raw materials
Oil (Million bbl) -Excluding naphtha Anthracite (Million ton) Bituminous coal
(Million ton) -Excluding coking coal Electricity
(TWh) Town gas (Billion m3) Thermal and other
(Thousand TOE)
중기수요전망13 영문 2012.7.3 11:31 AM 페이지9 매일3 MAC2PDF_IN 600DPI 125LPI T
- Anthracite demand is forecast to rise rapidly at an annual average rate of 5 to 6% as a result of higher demand for industrial use.
Electricity and town gas demand is projected to rise substantially at annual average rates of 4.3% and 3.4%, respectively, attributable to higher demand for industrial use.
The share of energy consumption accounted for by oil will likely fall steadily, while the shares accounted for by electricity and town gas should continue to rise.
The share of final energy taken up by oil was 50.9% in 2011 and is expected to fall to 48.0% by 2016.
The share accounted for by coal is projected to rise slightly from 14.6% in 2011 to 14.8% by 2016.
The share taken up by electricity is forecast to rise from 19.6% in 2011 to 21.4% by 2016. The share accounted for by town gas is expected to rise from 11.2% in 2011 to 11.6% by 2016.
The share of energy consumption accounted for by thermal and other energy is only 3.7% in 2011 but continues to rise owing to sharply rising consumption of new &
renewable energy. It is forecast to reach 4.2% by 2016.
10 KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE
KEEI
Korea Energy Demand Outlook
[Figure 3] Outlook for annual rates of increase in demand for key final energy sources
(%)
중기수요전망13 영문 2012.7.3 11:31 AM 페이지10 매일3 MAC2PDF_IN 600DPI 125LPI T
