The Application of the Gravity Model to the Tourism Industry of the Philippines and Select Neighboring Countries

Philippine Management Review 2022, Vol. 29, 25-44.

The Application of the Gravity Model to the Tourism Industry of the Philippines and Select Neighboring Countries

‡‹ŽƒǤƒŠ‡ƒ^ȗ

University of the Philippines, Cesar E.A. Virata School of Business, Diliman, Quezon City 1101, Philippines

„•–”ƒ…–ǣŠ‹••–—†›—•‡•ƒ‘†‹ˆ‹‡†˜‡”•‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡‰”ƒ˜‹–›‘†‡Ž‹‡šƒ‹‹‰–Š‡„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ

ˆŽ‘™‘ˆ–‘—”‹•–ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•‹–Š‡Š‹Ž‹’’‹‡•ƒ†‹–•‡‹‰Š„‘—”‹‰…‘—–”‹‡•ȋ‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ǡ

ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǡƒ†”—‡‹ȌǤŠ‹••–—†›…‘’ƒ”‡•ƒ†‡š’Žƒ‹•–Š‡ˆƒ…–‘”•ƒ†’ƒ––‡”‘ˆ–‘—”‹•

ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡•‘ˆ–Š‡•‡Ž‡…–‡†…‘—–”‹‡•™‹–Š–Š‡‹””‡•’‡…–‹˜‡’ƒ”–‡”…‘—–”‹‡•„›Ž‘‘‹‰ƒ––‘—”‹•

ƒ†…—Ž–—”ƒŽ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•–Šƒ–ƒ›…‘–”‹„—–‡–‘…‡”–ƒ‹–‘—”‹•’ƒ––‡”•Ǥ‘‰•‡˜‡”ƒŽ–‡•–‡†

˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ǡ–Š‡”‡•—Ž–••Š‘™–Šƒ–Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ȋ‘ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽƒ†‹‘”‹–›Ȍǡ˜‹•ƒ’‘Ž‹…›ǡƒ†ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ

†‹”‡…– ˆŽ‹‰Š–• ‡š’Žƒ‹ –‘—”‹• ˆŽ‘™• ƒ…”‘•• ƒŽŽ •‡Ž‡…–‡† …‘—–”‹‡•Ǥ Š‹• ƒ› •—‰‰‡•– –Šƒ–

‰‘˜‡”‡–•ƒ›—•‡ƒ™‹†‡”˜ƒ”‹‡–›‘ˆŽƒ‰—ƒ‰‡•‹–Š‡‹”–‘—”‹•…ƒ’ƒ‹‰•ƒ†ƒ”‡–‹‰

collaterals. The easing of a country’s visa policy is also highly encouraged as this can stimulate

‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ–‘—”‹•–ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•Ǥ–‹•ƒŽ•‘‹’‘”–ƒ––‘‡“—‹’–Š‡–‘—”‹•‹†—•–”›™‹–Š†‹”‡…–

ˆŽ‹‰Š–•ƒ•–Š‹•’”‘˜‡•–‘„‡ƒ‹’‘”–ƒ–ˆƒ…–‘”‹ƒ––”ƒ…–‹‰–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•Ǥ Keywordsǣ‘—”‹•ǡ‰”ƒ˜‹–›‘†‡Žǡ…—Ž–—”‡ǡ–‘—”‹•–ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•

1 Introduction

Š‡–‘—”‹•‹†—•–”›‹•…”‹–‹…ƒŽ–‘‡‡”‰‹‰…‘—–”‹‡•̵‡…‘‘‹…’”‘‰”‡••Ǥ‘—”‹•…‘–”‹„—–‡•–‘

Ž‘…ƒŽ ‹ˆ”ƒ•–”—…–—”‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– ™Š‹Ž‡ ƒŽ•‘ ‹…”‡ƒ•‹‰ „—•‹‡•• ƒ† Œ‘„ ’”‘•’‡…–•Ǥ Š‡ –‘—”‹•

‹†—•–”›ƒ……‘—–•ˆ‘”ƒ•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–’ƒ”–‘ˆ–Š‡‰Ž‘„ƒŽǤ‘“—ƒ–‹ˆ›–Š‹•ǡƒ……‘”†‹‰–‘–Š‡‘”Ž†

”ƒ˜‡Ž ƒ† ‘—”‹• ‘—…‹Ž ȋȌǡ –Š‡ …‘–”‹„—–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ™‘”Ž†̵• –‘—”‹• ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡• ‹ ʹͲͳͻ

ƒ……‘—–•ˆ‘”ͳͲǤͶΨ‘ˆ–Š‡™‘”Ž†̵•Ǥ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ„‡…ƒ—•‡‘ˆ–Š‡™‘”Ž†™‹†‡–”ƒ˜‡Ž”‡•–”‹…–‹‘•…ƒ—•‡†

„›–Š‡ǦͳͻŽ‘…†‘™•ǡ–‘—”‹•̵•…‘–”‹„—–‹‘Šƒ••‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ž›†‡…Ž‹‡†–‘ͷǤͷΨ‹ʹͲʹͲǤ

Š‡–‘–ƒŽ–”ƒ˜‡Žƒ†–‘—”‹•‰Ž‘„ƒŽ…Šƒ‰‡‹ʹͲʹͲ‹•ƒ–ǦͶͻΨǡ™Š‹Ž‡–Š‡‰Ž‘„ƒŽ‡…‘‘›

change is 3%. Now, the tourism industry’s revival is of utmost importance given the recent gradual

”‡•—’–‹‘‘ˆ–‘—”‹•ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡•‹‘•–‡…‘‘‹‡•Ǥ–‹•–Š‡˜‹–ƒŽ–‘—†‡”•–ƒ†Š‘™…‡”–ƒ‹–‘—”‹•

˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•‹’ƒ…–‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•–‘•–‹—Žƒ–‡–Š‡‹†—•–”›Ǥ

Š‡ ‰”ƒ˜‹–› ‘†‡Ž ȋȌ Šƒ• „‡‡ –”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽŽ›ƒ’’Ž‹‡† ‹ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‡…‘‘‹…• ’”‹ƒ”‹Ž› –‘

„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ–”ƒ†‡„‡–™‡‡…‘—–”‹‡•Ǥ‹…‡–Š‡ǡ‹–Šƒ•„‡‡—•‡†‹˜ƒ”‹‘—•‘†‡•‘ˆ„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽˆŽ‘™ǡ‘–

Œ—•–‹–”ƒ†‡Ǥ ‘”‡šƒ’Ž‡ǡ‘‘–‡–ƒŽǤȋʹͲͳ͸Ȍ—–‹Ž‹œ‡–Š‡‹‹‰”ƒ–‹‘ƒ†–Š‡Žƒ„‘”ƒ”‡–ǡ™Š‹Ž‡

‹ƒƒ†ƒȋʹͲͲͻȌ—•‡–Š‡‹–”ƒ•’‘”–ƒ–‹‘‡–™‘”ǡ„ƒ•‡†‘‘’–‹ƒŽ‡š’‡…–‡†–”ƒˆˆ‹…Ǥ–‹•

‡˜‡—–‹Ž‹œ‡†‹”‡–ƒ‹Žƒ†…‘•—‡”ƒ”‡–‹‰ȋ”‡ˆ‡”–‘—…Ž‹ǡͳͻ͹ͳȌǤ–‘—”‹•ǡ–Š‡”‡‹•ƒ—Ž–‹–—†‡

‘ˆ”‡•‡ƒ”…Š†‘‡–Šƒ–Ž‘‘•‹–‘‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ȋ”‡ˆ‡”–‘‡…–‹‘ʹǤͳȌǤ

Š‹••–—†›Ž‘‘•‹–‘–Š‡—•‡‘ˆ‹„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ–‘—”‹•ˆŽ‘™ǡ•’‡…‹ˆ‹…ƒŽŽ›‹‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ–‘—”‹•–

ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ǤŠ‹••–—†›—•‡•–Š‡ˆ”ƒ‡™‘”–‘…‘’ƒ”‡ƒ†…‘–”ƒ•––Š‡„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ–‘—”‹•ˆŽ‘™•‘ˆ–Š‡

Š‹Ž‹’’‹‡•ƒ†–Š”‡‡‘–Š‡”‡‹‰Š„‘”‹‰…‘—–”‹‡•ǡƒ‡Ž›ǣ‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ǡƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǡƒ†”—‡‹ǤŠ‡•‡

–Š”‡‡ ‡‹‰Š„‘”‹‰ …‘—–”‹‡• ™‡”‡ •’‡…‹ˆ‹…ƒŽŽ› •‡Ž‡…–‡† †—‡ –‘ –Š‡‹” ‰‡‘‰”ƒ’Š‹… ’”‘š‹‹–› –‘ –Š‡

Š‹Ž‹’’‹‡•ƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ•–Š‡‹”‹…Ž—•‹‘‹–Š‡••‘…‹ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ‘—–Š‡ƒ•–•‹ƒƒ–‹‘•Ǥ

—‹†‡† „› ”‡Žƒ–‡† Ž‹–‡”ƒ–—”‡ǡ ‘ˆ „‘–Š ‘”‹‰‹ ƒ† †‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘ …‘—–”‹‡• ‹• —•‡† ƒ• ƒ …‘–”‘Ž

variable. Data for these are drawn from the IMF’s Wo”Ž† …‘‘‹… —–Ž‘‘ ȋȌ †ƒ–ƒ„ƒ•‡Ǥ Š‡

–”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡••—…Šƒ•„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ†‹•–ƒ…‡„‡–™‡‡…‘—–”‹‡•ǡ‘ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽƒ†‹‘”‹–›Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡•ǡ colonial history, and geographical contiguity are taken from the Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations –‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡• ȋ^ͳȌ †ƒ–ƒ„ƒ•‡ǡ ƒ• ’”‡•‡–‡† ‹ ƒ›‡” ƒ† ‹‰ƒ‰‘ ȋʹͲͲ͸ȌǤ Š‡

„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ†‹•–ƒ…‡„‡–™‡‡…‘—–”‹‡•‹•‡ƒ•—”‡†ƒ•–Š‡‰”‡ƒ–Ǧ…‹”…Ž‡†‹•–ƒ…‡‹‹Ž‘‡–‡”•„‡–™‡‡

–Š‡…ƒ’‹–ƒŽ…‹–‹‡•‘ˆ‡ƒ…Š…‘—–”›’ƒ‹”ȋƒ›‡”Ƭ‹‰ƒ‰‘ǡʹͲͲ͸ȌǤ‹ƒ”›˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ˆ‘”–Š‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•

ȋŽƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ǡ…‘Ž‘‹ƒŽŠ‹•–‘”›ǡƒ†…‘–‹‰—‹–›Ȍƒ”‡ƒ••‹‰‡†ƒ˜ƒŽ—‡‘ˆͳ‹ˆƒ…‘—–”›’ƒ‹”•Šƒ”‡ƒ…‘‘

‘ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽŽƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ǡƒ…‘Ž‘‹ƒŽ–‹‡ǡƒ†ƒƒ†Œƒ…‡–„‘”†‡”ƒ†ƒ˜ƒŽ—‡‘ˆͲǡ‘–Š‡”™‹•‡Ǥ‹ƒ”›˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•

ȗ‘””‡•’‘†‡…‡ǣŽ…”ƒŠ‡ƒ̷—’Ǥ‡†—Ǥ’Š

ͳ‡ƒ”‘”‡ƒ„‘—–˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ˆ”‘Š––’ǣȀȀ™™™Ǥ…‡’‹‹Ǥˆ”ȀȀ‡Ȁ…‡’‹‹Ȁ…‡’‹‹Ǥƒ•’

ʹ͸ The application of the gravity model to the tourism industry of the Philippines and select neighboring countries

ƒ……‡••‡†ˆ”‘–Š‡†ƒ–ƒ„ƒ•‡ƒ”‡ƒ••‹‰‡†ƒ˜ƒŽ—‡‘ˆͳ‹ˆƒ…‘—–”›’ƒ‹”•Šƒ”‡ƒ…‘‘Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ǡ

Š‹•–‘”‹…ƒŽ…‘Ž‘‹ƒŽ–‹‡•ǡƒ†•Šƒ”‡ƒƒ†Œƒ…‡–„‘”†‡”Ǥ–Š‡”™‹•‡ǡ–Š‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡™‹ŽŽ„‡ƒ••‹‰‡†ƒ˜ƒŽ—‡

‘ˆͲǤŠ‹••–—†›ƒ—‰‡–•–Š‡„ƒ•‹…„›ƒ††‹‰…—Ž–—”ƒŽ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ˆ”‘–Š‡†ƒ–ƒ„ƒ•‡ȋ•—…Šƒ•

‘ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽŽƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ǡ‹‘”‹–›Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ǡ…‘–‹‰—‘—•ǡ…‘Ž‘‹ƒŽŽ‹•ǡƒ†…‘Ž‘‹œ‡”˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•Ȍǡ‘”Ž†™‹†‡

Governance Indicators (WGI), ease of travel variables such as a country’s visa policy and access to

†‹”‡…–ˆŽ‹‰Š–…‘‡…–‹˜‹–›ǡƒ†–Š‡‹’ƒ…–‘ˆ–Š‡ʹͲͲͺˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ…”‹•‹•ƒ†–Š‡ʹͲͲ͵‘—–„”‡ƒȋƒ•

ƒ ‹†—•–”› •Š‘…ȌǤ Š‡ ‹…Ž—•‹‘ ‘ˆ ‘–”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽ ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡• ˆ‘”• ƒ ‡š–‡†‡† ˜‡”•‹‘ –Šƒ–

‡š‡”…‹•‡•–Š‡‡Ž‡‰ƒ…‡‘ˆ–Š‡–Š‡‘”‡–‹…ƒŽ—†‡”’‹‹‰‘ˆ–Š‡„ƒ•‹…ǤŠ‡‡š‡”…‹•‡‘ˆ‡š–‡†‹‰–Š‡

—•‡‘ˆ–Š‡–‘‘–Š‡”ˆ‘”•‘ˆ„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽˆŽ‘™•ǡ‘–Š‡”–Šƒ–Š‡–”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽŽ›—•‡†–”ƒ†‡ǡ‹•–Š‡’ƒ’‡”̵•

–Š‡‘”‡–‹…ƒŽ…‘–”‹„—–‹‘Ǥ

Š‡•–—†›Š‘’‡•–‘”‡ƒˆˆ‹”„‘–Š–Š‡ˆŽ‡š‹„‹Ž‹–›ƒ†‡Ž‡‰ƒ…‡‘ˆ–Š‡‰”ƒ˜‹–›‘†‡Ž‹‹–•ƒ’’Ž‹…ƒ–‹‘

–‘ –Š‡ –‘—”‹• ‹†—•–”› •’‡…‹ˆ‹…ƒŽŽ› ƒˆˆ‡…–‹‰ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ• ‹ –Š‡ Š‹Ž‹’’‹‡• ƒ† •‡Ž‡…–

‡‹‰Š„‘”‹‰ …‘—–”‹‡•Ǥ Š‹• •–—†› •‡‡• –‘ ƒ•™‡” –Š‡ “—‡•–‹‘ǣ Š‹…Š ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ǡ —•‡† ‹ –Š‡

ƒ—‰‡–‡†ǡƒ”‡–Š‡„‡•–†‡–‡”‹ƒ–•‘ˆ–‘—”‹••—……‡••ǫŠ‡ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰•–—†›—•‡•–Š‡”ƒ˜‹–›

‘†‡Ž–‘‡˜ƒŽ—ƒ–‡Ǥ

This study’s importance comes to light when one draws from its results some policy implications

‘ Š‘™ ’‘Ž‹…›ƒ‡”• …ƒ ˆ—”–Š‡” ‡…‘—”ƒ‰‡ –‘—”‹•– ’ƒ”–‹…‹’ƒ–‹‘ –‘ •–‹—Žƒ–‡ –‘—”‹• ˜‘Ž—‡ „›

…‘•‹†‡”‹‰–Š‡•’‡…‹ˆ‹…ˆƒ…–‘”•–Šƒ–ƒˆˆ‡…––‘—”‹•„‡Šƒ˜‹‘”ǤŠ”‘—‰Š–Š‹•ǡ‘’’‘”–—‹–‹‡•ˆ‘”‡…‘‘‹…

‰”‘™–Šƒ”‡™‹†‡‡†ǡ‰‹˜‡–Š‡Š‹‰ŠŽ›‘’‡ƒ–—”‡‘ˆ–Š‡Š‹Ž‹’’‹‡•Ǥ‘™Ž‡†‰‡‘ˆˆƒ…–‘”•‘–Š‡”–Šƒ

†‹•–ƒ…‡ƒ†•‹œ‡…ƒƒŽŽ‘™ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡–ƒ”‰‡–‹‰‘ˆ–Š‡–‘—”‹•‹†—•–”›™Š‡”‡–Š‡•‡ˆƒ…–‘”•ƒ”‡‘•–

‹’‘”–ƒ–Ǥ

2 The Gravity Model Theory

Newton’s law of universal gravitation has inspired the GM wherein the formula is computed using

–Š‡ˆ‘”…‡‘ˆƒ––”ƒ…–‹‘„‡–™‡‡–™‘„‘†‹‡•–‘–Š‡‹”ƒ••‡•ƒ††‹•–ƒ…‡ǣ 𝐹𝐹 = 𝐺𝐺 (𝑚𝑚₁𝑚𝑚₂

𝐷𝐷² )

™Š‡”‡F ‹• –Š‡ ˆ‘”…‡ ‘ˆ ƒ––”ƒ…–‹‘ „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ „‘†‹‡•ǡD ‹• –Š‡ †‹•–ƒ…‡ „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ǡG ‹• ƒ …‘•–ƒ–ǡƒ†mͳƒ†mʹƒ”‡–Š‡ƒ••‡•‘ˆ–Š‡–™‘„‘†‹‡•ȋ–ƒ›Ƭ—Žƒ”‹ǡʹͲͳͷȌǤ–—‹–‹˜‡Ž›ǡ–Š‹•

”‡’”‡•‡–•–Š‡‰”‡ƒ–‡”ˆ‘”…‡‘ˆƒ––”ƒ…–‹‘ƒ‘‰Žƒ”‰‡”ƒ••‡•ǡ™Š‹Ž‡–Š‡”‡‹•Ž‡••ƒ––”ƒ…–‹‘ƒ‘‰

more distant entities. The elegance of this model is primarily because of the model’s ability in

†‡•…”‹„‹‰ ‘‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‘•– •–ƒ„Ž‡ ”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’• ‹ ‡…‘‘‹…•—–Šƒ– ‹–‡”ƒ…–‹‘ „‡–™‡‡ Žƒ”‰‡

‡…‘‘‹……Ž—•–‡”•‹••–”‘‰‡”–Šƒ–Šƒ–„‡–™‡‡•ƒŽŽ‡”‘‡•ƒ†–Šƒ–‡ƒ”„›…Ž—•–‡”•ƒ––”ƒ…–‡ƒ…Š

‘–Š‡”‘”‡–Šƒ–Š‡ˆƒ”Ǧ‘ˆˆ‘‡•ȋƒŠ‡ƒǡʹͲʹͲǡ’ǤͳȌǤƒ‡”‰‡‹Œƒ†”ƒƒȋʹͲͳͲǡ’ǤͳȌ‡š’Žƒ‹

Š‘™ •‹’Ž‡ ›‡– ‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡ –Š‹• …‘…‡’– ‹• ˆ”‘ ƒ ‡’‹”‹…ƒŽ ’‘‹– ‘ˆ ˜‹‡™ ƒ† •Š‘™ –Šƒ– ƒ ‰”ƒ˜‹–›

‡“—ƒ–‹‘…ƒ‡’‹”‹…ƒŽŽ›‡š’Žƒ‹•‡˜‡”ƒŽ‡…‘‘‹…’Š‡‘‡ƒ„‡–™‡‡†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–Ž‘…ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ

Š‹•‹–—‹–‹˜‡”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’…ƒ„‡†‹”‡…–Ž›”‡Žƒ–‡†–‘–Š‡‹–‘—”‹•ˆŽ‘™•ǡ™‹–Š–Š‡‘”‹‰‹ƒ†

†‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘…‘—–”‹‡•…‘•‹†‡”‡†ƒ•–Š‡planetsǡ–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ƒ‘‰–Š‘•‡…‘—–”‹‡•

ƒ•–Š‡gravitational force†‡’‡†‹‰‘–Š‡•‘ˆ–Š‡–™‘…‘—–”‹‡•ȋ•‹‹Žƒ”–‘–Š‡‡…‘‘‹…ƒ••‘ˆ

ƒ…‘—–”›Ȍƒ†–Š‡‹”‰‡‘‰”ƒ’Š‹…ƒŽ†‹•–ƒ…‡Ǥ‹’Ž›’—–ǡ–Š‡‰”‡ƒ–‡”–Š‡ȋƒ••Ȍ„‡–™‡‡–Š‡–™‘

…‘—–”‹‡•ȋ’Žƒ‡–•Ȍǡ–Š‡‰”‡ƒ–‡”–Š‡–‘—”‹•ˆŽ‘™ȋ‰”ƒ˜‹–ƒ–‹‘ƒŽˆ‘”…‡Ȍȋ–ƒ›Ƭ—Žƒ”‹ǡʹͲͳͷȌǤ

2.1 The Model

Š‡„ƒ•‹…‹•†‡•…”‹„‡†‹–Š‹•’ƒ’‡”ƒ•ƒ…‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽ–‡…Š‹“—‡ˆ‘”ƒƒŽ›œ‹‰„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽˆŽ‘™•

„‡–™‡‡‡…‘‘‹‡•ǡ™Š‹…ŠŠƒ•–”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽŽ›„‡‡—–‹Ž‹œ‡†‹–”ƒ†‡•–—†‹‡•ǤŠ‹•‰”ƒ˜‹–ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡“—ƒ–‹‘

…ƒ„‡…‘•‹†‡”‡†ƒ‘†‡Ž”‡’”‡•‡–‹‰–Š‡†‡‰”‡‡‘ˆ•’ƒ–‹ƒŽ‹–‡”ƒ…–‹‘„‡–™‡‡–™‘‘”‘”‡’‘‹–•ǡ

•‹‹Žƒ”–‘ƒ’Š›•‹…ƒŽ’Š‡‘‡‘Ǥ‹‹Žƒ”–‘‡™–‘̵•Žƒ™‘ˆ—‹˜‡”•ƒŽ‰”ƒ˜‹–ƒ–‹‘ǡ†‹•–ƒ…‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•

ƒ”‡ƒ‹’‘”–ƒ–‡Ž‡‡–‘ˆȋ”—‰ƒ‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͳͷȌǤŠ‡‘†‡Ž‹•†‡ˆ‹‡†„›”—‰ƒ‡–ƒŽǤ ȋʹͲͳͷȌƒ•–Š‡’”‘’‘”–‹‘ƒ–‡˜ƒŽ—‡–‘–Š‡’”‘†—…–‘ˆ–Š‡–™‘ƒ–‹‘•̵ǡ™Š‹…Š†‡…”‡ƒ•‡•ƒ•–Š‡

†‹•–ƒ…‡ „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ –™‘ …‘—–”‹‡• ‹…”‡ƒses. Using Newton’s law of universal gravitation as

‹•’‹”ƒ–‹‘ǡ–Š‹•‡“—ƒ–‹‘•Š‘™•ƒideal˜‘Ž—‡„‡–™‡‡–™‘…‘—–”‹‡•ǣ

Leila C. Rahnema ʹ͹

𝑇𝑇_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖}= 𝐴𝐴 ⋅ 𝑌𝑌_𝑖𝑖⋅ (𝑌𝑌_𝑖𝑖

𝐷𝐷_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖}) ȋͳȌ

™Š‡”‡𝑇𝑇_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖}‹•–Š‡˜ƒŽ—‡‘ˆ„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽˆŽ‘™„‡–™‡‡…‘—–”‹‡•iƒ†jǡA‹•ƒ…‘•–ƒ––‡”ǡY‹•–Š‡

country’s GDP, and D‹•–Š‡†‹•–ƒ…‡„‡–™‡‡–Š‡–™‘…‘—–”‹‡•ȋ”—‰ƒ‡–ƒŽǤǡʹͲͳͷǡ’ǤͶͶȌǤŠ‡–™‘

‡Ž‡‡–•–Šƒ–†‡–‡”‹‡–Š‡˜‘Ž—‡‘ˆ–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ƒ”‡–Š‡•‹œ‡‘ˆ–Š‡…‘—–”‹‡•̵•ƒ†–Š‡

†‹•–ƒ…‡ „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ǡ ƒ••Š‘™ ‹ ‡“—ƒ–‹‘ȋͳȌ ȋ”—‰ƒ ‡– ƒŽǤǡʹͲͳͷǡ ’Ǥ ͶͷȌǤ –—‹–‹˜‡Ž›ǡ Žƒ”‰‡”

‡…‘‘‹‡•–”ƒ˜‡Ž‘”‡„‡…ƒ—•‡–Š‡›Šƒ˜‡‘”‡‹…‘‡ǡƒ––”ƒ…–‹‰Žƒ”‰‡’‘”–‹‘•‘ˆ‘–Š‡”…‘—–”‹‡•̵

•’‡†‹‰Ǥ

Š‡–”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽ‹•‡ƒ•‹Ž›‡•–‹ƒ–‡†—•‹‰ƒŽ‘‰ǦŽ‹‡ƒ”•’‡…‹ˆ‹…ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ‡“—ƒ–‹‘ȋͳȌǢ–Šƒ–‹•ǡ–Š‡

‡…‘‘‡–”‹…•’‡…‹ˆ‹…ƒ–‹‘–Šƒ–…ƒ‡•–‹ƒ–‡‹•ƒ•ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™•ǣ

ln 𝑇𝑇_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖}= 𝛼𝛼₀+ 𝛼𝛼₁ln 𝑞𝑞_𝑖𝑖+ 𝛼𝛼₂ln 𝑞𝑞_𝑖𝑖+ 𝛼𝛼₃ln 𝑑𝑑_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖}+ 𝜀𝜀_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖} ȋʹȌ ‘”‡•–‹ƒ–‹‰–Š‡’ƒ”ƒ‡–‡”•ƒ†…‘•–ƒ–ˆ‘”–Š‡ǡƒ˜ƒ”‹‡–›‘ˆ”‡‰”‡••‹‘ƒ’’”‘ƒ…Š‡•…ƒ„‡

—•‡†Ǥ Š‡ ‹• –Š‡ •‹’Ž‡•– ƒ’’”‘ƒ…Š ƒ† …ƒ „‡ —•‡† ƒˆ–‡” ‘„–ƒ‹‹‰ –Š‡ ƒ–—”ƒŽ Ž‘‰ƒ”‹–Š ‘ˆ

‡“—ƒ–‹‘ ȋʹȌ ȋ—›• ‡– ƒŽǤǡ ʹͲͲ͸ȌǤ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ ƒ• ƒ–‘• ‹Ž˜ƒ ƒ† ‡”‡›”‘ ȋʹͲͲ͸Ȍ ’‘‹– ‘—–ǡ –Š‹•

‡•–‹ƒ–‹‰–‡…Š‹“—‡Šƒ•ˆŽƒ™•Ǥ ‹”•–ǡŽ‘‰ǦŽ‹‡ƒ”‹œƒ–‹‘‡Ž‹‹ƒ–‡•œ‡”‘Ǧ–”ƒ†‡’ƒ‹”‹‰•ǡ”‡†—…‹‰–Š‡

—„‡” ‘ˆ ‘„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘• ‹ ƒ •Š‘”–‡‡† •ƒ’Ž‡Ǥ ‡…‘†ǡ –”ƒ†‡ †ƒ–ƒ ‹• ‹–”‹•‹…ƒŽŽ› Š‡–‡”‘•…‡†ƒ•–‹…ǡ

”‡•—Ž–‹‰ ‹ …‘ˆŽ‹…–‹‰ ˆ‹†‹‰• ™Š‡ —•‹‰ –‘ ‡•–‹ƒ–‡ ƒ Ž‘‰ǦŽ‹‡ƒ”‹œ‡† ‡“—ƒ–‹‘ ȋƒŠ‡ƒǡ ʹͲʹͲȌǤŠ‡‡š’Žƒƒ–‘”›˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•™‹ŽŽ„‡…‘””‡Žƒ–‡†™‹–Š–Š‡‡””‘”•‡‡”‰‹‰ˆ”‘–Š‡ƒŽ–‡”‡†‡“—ƒ–‹‘

‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ‡…ƒ—•‡‘ˆ–Š‡•‡‹••—‡•ǡ‘Ž‹‡ƒ”Ž‡ƒ•–•“—ƒ”‡•ȋȌ‡•–‹ƒ–‡ƒ’’”‘ƒ…Š‹•”‡“—‹”‡†Ǥ

Š‹”†ǡ–Š‡›…Žƒ‹–Šƒ–‡…‘‘‹…”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’•†‘‘–‡‡†–‘„‡’‡”ˆ‡…–Ǣ‹•–‡ƒ†ǡ–Š‡›•‹’Ž›‡‡†–‘

Š‘Ž†‘ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡Ǥ–Š‹•…ƒ•‡ǡƒ–‘•‹Ž˜ƒƒ†‡”‡›”‘ȋʹͲͲ͸Ȍ•—‰‰‡•–—•‹‰‘‹••‘”‡‰”‡••‹‘Ǥ ‘”

ƒ†‹•…—••‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡”‡‰”‡••‹‘‡–Š‘†ǡ•‡‡ƒŠ‡ƒȋʹͲʹͲȌǤ

‡˜‡”ƒŽ‡–Š‘†•…ƒ„‡—•‡†–‘–‡•––Š‡–‘—”‹•†‡ƒ†Ǥ‘”Šƒƒ†”•ƒ†ȋʹͲͳ͸ǡ„•–”ƒ…–ȌŠƒ˜‡

—•‡†–Š‡ƒ—–‘”‡‰”‡••‹˜‡†‹•–”‹„—–‡†Žƒ‰ȋȌ„‘—†•–‡•–‹‰ƒ’’”‘ƒ…Š–‘‹˜‡•–‹‰ƒ–‡–Š‡†›ƒ‹…

Ž‘‰Ǧ”—ƒ†•Š‘”–Ǧ”— ”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’ „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ —„‡” ‘ˆ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ–‘—”‹•–ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ• ˆ”‘•‹š

—”‘’‡ƒ…‘—–”‹‡•ƒ†ˆ‘—”•‡Ž‡…–‡†‡…‘‘‹…˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ǤŠ‡‡…‘‘‹…˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•—•‡†‹–Š‡‹”•–—†›

ƒ”‡‡š…Šƒ‰‡”ƒ–‡ǡ‰”‘••†‘‡•–‹…’”‘†—…–ǡ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡’”‹…‡ǡƒ†•—„•–‹–—–‡”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡’”‹…‡ǤŠ‡”‡•—Ž–•‘ˆ

–Š‡‹”•–—†›•Š‘™–Šƒ––Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ–‘—”‹•–ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ƒ†‡š…Šƒ‰‡”ƒ–‡ǡŽ‡˜‡Ž‘ˆ‹…‘‡ǡ

ƒ†”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡’”‹…‡ƒ”‡ˆ‘—†–‘Šƒ˜‡’‘•‹–‹˜‡‹’ƒ…–‘–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•–‘ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǤ‘–Š‡”

™ƒ›–‘–‡•––Š‡–‘—”‹•†‡ƒ†Š›’‘–Š‡•‹•‹•„›—•‹‰•–”—…–—”ƒŽ‡“—ƒ–‹‘‘†‡ŽŽ‹‰ȋȌ–‘–‘—”‹•

†‡ƒ†ǤŠ‡•–—†›†‘‡„›—”‡”ƒ†‹––ȋʹͲͲͳȌ—•‡•‹‡šƒ‹‹‰‹„‘—†–‘—”‹•ˆŽ‘™•–‘

‡™‡ƒŽƒ†ǤŠ‡‡’‹”‹…ƒŽ”‡•—Ž–•ˆ”‘–Š‡‹”•–—†›•Š‘™–Šƒ–‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ–”ƒ†‡’Žƒ›•–Š‡ƒŒ‘””‘Ž‡

‹‹ˆŽ—‡…‹‰„—•‹‡••–‘—”‹•†‡ƒ†ǡ”‡–ƒ‹Ž•ƒŽ‡•ƒ”‡–Š‡ƒŒ‘”‹ˆŽ—‡…‡‘–Š‡†‡ƒ†ˆ‘”ˆ‘”‡‹‰

Š‘Ž‹†ƒ›•ǡ ƒ† ‡™ ’”‹˜ƒ–‡ …ƒ” ”‡‰‹•–”ƒ–‹‘• ƒ”‡ –Š‡ ƒŒ‘” †‡–‡”‹ƒ– ‘ˆ –‘—”‹• †‡ƒ†Ǥ –Š‡”

…‘‘Ž› —•‡† ‡–Š‘†• ˆ‘” –‡•–‹‰ –‘—”‹• †‡ƒ† ƒ”‡ –Š‡ ”†‹ƒ”› ‡ƒ•– “—ƒ”‡• ȋȌ ƒ†

‘‹••‘”‡‰”‡••‹‘•Ǥ

‡˜‡”ƒŽ •–—†‹‡• Šƒ˜‡ ƒƒŽ›œ‡† ˆƒ…–‘”• ‹ˆŽ—‡…‹‰ –‘—”‹• †‡ƒ† –‘ ’”‘˜‹†‡ ’‘Ž‹…› Ž‡˜‡”• ˆ‘”

‰‘˜‡”‡–‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘•Ǥ‡–ƒǦƒƒŽ›•‹•†‘‡„›”‘—…ŠȋͳͻͻͶȌ•Š‘™•–Šƒ–ˆ‘”–‘—”‹•†‡ƒ†ǡ

–Š‡”‡‹•ƒ•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–—„‡”‘ˆ‹†‡’‡†‡–˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•–‘…‘•‹†‡”ǡ†‡’‡†‹‰‘…”‹–‡”‹ƒ•—…Šƒ•–Š‡

‘”‹‰‹ƒ††‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘…‘—–”‹‡•ǡ–Š‡•ƒ’Ž‡•‹œ‡ƒ†ˆ”‡“—‡…›ǡ‡–…Ǥ‡…‡ǡ•’‡…‹ˆ‹…˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•—•–„‡

–‡•–‡†‘–Š‡†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–‘”‹‰‹ƒ††‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘…‘—–”‹‡•–‘•‡‡™Š‹…Šƒ”‡•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ––‘–Š‡‹”–‘—”‹•

ˆŽ‘™Ǥ—”„ƒ””›ȋʹͲͲͲȌŠƒ••–—†‹‡†–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ˆ‘”–Š‡‹–‡†‹‰†‘—•‹‰ƒ‰”ƒ˜‹–›ˆ”ƒ‡™‘”Ǥ

‹• ˆ‹†‹‰• ”‡˜‡ƒŽ –Šƒ– ˜ƒ”‹‘—• ˆƒ…–‘”• ‹ˆŽ—‡…‡ –‘—”‹• ‡š’‡†‹–—”‡ǡ ‹…Ž—†‹‰ …‘•–• ‹ ”‹˜ƒŽ

†‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘• ƒ† ‡š…Šƒ‰‡ ”ƒ–‡•Ǥ ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ ƒ ‰”ƒ˜‹–› ƒ’’”‘ƒ…Šǡ Šƒ†ƒ”‘‘ ƒ† ‡‡–ƒƒŠ ȋʹͲͲͺȌ

‡šƒ‹‡ ’ƒ‡Ž †ƒ–ƒ ‘ˆ „‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ –‘—”‹•– ˆŽ‘™• ƒ…”‘•• ʹͺ …‘—–”‹‡•ǡ ”‡˜‡ƒŽ‹‰ –Šƒ– –”ƒ•’‘”–ƒ–‹‘

‹ˆ”ƒ•–”—…–—”‡‹•ƒ•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–ˆƒ…–‘”‹–‘—”‹•ˆŽ‘™•Ǥ‰”ƒ˜‹–›‘†‡Ž‘–Š‡–‘—”‹•ˆŽ‘™‘ˆ—”‡›„›

Eryiğit et al. (2010, Abstract) confirms the statistical significance of population, distance, GDP per …ƒ’ita, tourism price index, bilateral trade volume, tourism climate index, and “earthquake,” contiguity,

ƒ†…”‹•‹•ȋ–‡””‘”‹•Ȍ†—‹‡•Ǥ†‡‘Žƒ‡–ƒŽǤȋʹͲͳͺǡ„•–”ƒ…–ȌƒŽ•‘—•‡–Š‡‘‹••‘”‡‰”‡••‹‘–‘ˆ‹†

•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– †”‹˜‡”• ‘ˆ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ –‘—”‹• ‹ ˆ”‹…ƒǤ Š‡‹” ”‡•—Ž–• •Š‘™ –Šƒ– –ƒ•–‡ ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ǡ ”‡ƒŽ

‡š…Šƒ‰‡”ƒ–‡ǡ‹ˆ”ƒ•–”—…–—”‡ǡ’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ•–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›ƒ†ƒ„•‡…‡‘ˆ˜‹‘Ž‡…‡ǡ’‡”…ƒ’‹–ƒ‹…‘‡ǡ ǡƒ†

–”ƒ†‡‘’‡‡••ƒ”‡ƒŽŽ•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–†”‹˜‡”•‘ˆ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ–‘—”‹•‹–‘ˆ”‹…ƒǤ‘‡Ž†‡”ƒ†‹–…Š‹‡

ʹͺ The application of the gravity model to the tourism industry of the Philippines and select neighboring countries

ȋʹͲͲͻǡ’Ǥ͵͸͵Ǧ364) observe tourism demand to be directly related to the person’s propensity to travel that can be reflected in their country’s GDP or GDP per capita, which signifies their income, showing

–Š‡…ƒ’ƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ˜‹•‹–‘”•–‘–”ƒ˜‡Ž‡‹–Š‡”†‘‡•–‹…ƒŽŽ›‘”‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽŽ›ǡƒ†‹˜‡”•‡Ž›”‡Žƒ–‡†–‘–Š‡

”‡•‹•–ƒ…‡‘ˆ–Š‡Ž‹„‡–™‡‡‘”‹‰‹ƒ††‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘ƒ”‡ƒ•ȋ‡Ǥ‰Ǥǡ‡…‘‘‹…†‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ…—Ž–—”ƒŽ†‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ …‘•– ‘ˆ –‘—”‹• …‘‘†‹–‹‡•ǡ “—ƒŽ‹–› ‘ˆ –‘—”‹• ’”‘†—…–•ǡ ‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡‡•• ‘ˆ ƒ†˜‡”–‹•‹‰ǡ ƒ†

•‡ƒ•‘ƒŽ‹–›ȌǤ ‡ —––‡” ‡– ƒŽǤ ȋʹͲͳͶȌ ƒƒŽ›œ‡ –Š‡ ‹’ƒ…– ‘ˆ –Š‡ •‘…‹‘Ǧ‡…‘‘‹… ƒ† ‰‡‘‰”ƒ’Š‹…ƒŽ

ˆƒ…–‘”•‘‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ–‘—”‹•†‡ƒ†‹”‡‡…‡‘˜‡”ʹͲͲͳ–‘ʹͲͳͲǤŠ‡‰”ƒ˜‹–›‘†‡Ž‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘•

…‘ˆ‹”–Š‡‹’‘”–ƒ–”‘Ž‡‘ˆ†‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ–”ƒ†‡ǡ‹…‘‡ǡƒ†’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ•–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›ǤŠ‡•–—†›‘ˆƒŽƒŒȋʹͲʹͲǡ

’ǤͳͷʹȌ•Š‘™•–Šƒ–‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ–‘—”‹•–ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•–‘Ž„ƒ‹ƒƒ”‡’‘•‹–‹˜‡Ž›”‡Žƒ–‡†–‘•’‡”…ƒ’‹–ƒǡ

–‘–ƒŽ ‹ˆ”ƒ•–”—…–—”‡ ‹˜‡•–‡–•ǡ ’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ •–ƒ„‹Ž‹–› ƒ† ƒ„•‡…‡ ‘ˆ ˜‹‘Ž‡…‡Ȁ–‡””‘”‹•ǡ ƒ† –Š‡

‡š‹•–‡…‡‘ˆ…‘‘„‘”†‡”•Ǥƒ™‘”Ž†™‹†‡’‡”•’‡…–‹˜‡ǡ–Š‡•–—†›‘ˆ—‰‡‹‘Ǧƒ”–‹‡–ƒŽǤȋʹͲͳͺǡ

„•–”ƒ…–Ȍ •Š‘™• –Šƒ– ‡…‘‘‹… †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– ƒ––‡”• ƒ† ƒ‡• ƒ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡ –‘ –‘—”‹•–•̵ †‡…‹•‹‘

ƒ‹‰Ǥ Š‡‹” •—„•ƒ’Ž‡ ƒƒŽ›•‹• •Š‘™• –Šƒ– ‹ …‘—–”‹‡• ™‹–Š Š‹‰Š Ž‡˜‡Ž•ǡ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡…‡• ‹

‡…‘‘‹…†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–ƒ”‡‘–•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–ǡ™Š‡”‡ƒ•‹†‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰…‘—–”‹‡•ǡ–Š‡›ƒ”‡Ǥ

‹‹Žƒ”–‘•‘‡•–—†‹‡•‡–‹‘‡†ƒ„‘˜‡ǡ–Š‹•’ƒ’‡”—–‹Ž‹œ‡•ǡ†‹•–ƒ…‡ǡ‰‘˜‡”ƒ…‡ƒ†…”‹•‹•

˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ȋ‹’Žƒ…‡‘ˆ’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ•–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›ƒ†–‡””‘”‹•Ȍǡ‡ƒ•‡‘ˆ–”ƒ˜‡Žǡƒ†‘–Š‡”‘‡…‘‘‹…˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•

ˆ”‘–Š‡†ƒ–ƒ„ƒ•‡Ǥ

3 Country Tourism Statistics

According to the WTTC, the tourism industry has contributed to 11.1% of Singapore’s total GDP in ʹͲͳͻǤ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ–Š‹•Šƒ••Šƒ”’Ž›†‡…”‡ƒ•‡†„›͸ǤͶΨ‹ʹͲʹͲǤŠ‡–”ƒ˜‡Žƒ†–‘—”‹•…Šƒ‰‡‹•ƒ–

Ǧ͸ͲΨ ˜‡”•—• ‹–• ǦͷǤͷΨ ”‡ƒŽ ‡…‘‘› …Šƒ‰‡Ǥ Š‡ †‡…”‡ƒ•‡ ‹ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ˜‹•‹–‘”• •’‡†‹‰

ƒ‘—–•–‘ͳͻǤ͵„‹ŽŽ‹‘ȋ†‡…Ž‹‡‘ˆ͹ͶǤͶΨȌˆ”‘ʹͲͳͻǤŠ‹•†‡…Ž‹‡‹••—’’‘”–‡†„›–Š‡‡˜‹†‡–

†‡…Ž‹‡‹˜‹•‹–‘”ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ••–ƒ”–‹‰–Š‡ˆ‹”•–“—ƒ”–‡”‘ˆ›‡ƒ”ʹͲʹͲǤ ‹‰—”‡ͳ•Š‘™•–Š‡Š‹•–‘”‹…ƒŽ–”‡†‘ˆ

‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ˜‹•‹–‘”ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•^ʹ‹‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ˆ”‘›‡ƒ”•ʹͲͲͲ–‘ʹͲʹͲǤ‘–Š‡”•Šƒ”’†‡…Ž‹‡•‡‡‹

‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ˆ‘”›‡ƒ”ʹͲͲ͵™ƒ•†—‡–‘–Š‡‘—–„”‡ƒ‹–Š‡”‡‰‹‘Ǥ Figure 1. Historical trend of international arrivals in Singapore (1978-2020)

‘—”…‡ǣ‹‰ƒ’‘”‡‘—”‹•‘ƒ”†ǡǤ†Ǥ

‹‡™‹•‡ǡ–Š‹•‹•ƒŽ•‘–Š‡…ƒ•‡ˆ‘”ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǡ™Š‡”‡‹™Š‹Ž‡–Š‡–‘—”‹••‡…–‘”Šƒ•…‘–”‹„—–‡†–‘

11.7% of Malaysia’s GDP back in 2019, it has decreased in 2020 to only 5.2% contribution to GDP.

Malaysia’s travel and –‘—”‹•…Šƒ‰‡‹•ƒ–Ǧͷͺؘ‡”•—•‹–•ǦͷǤ͸Ψ”‡ƒŽ‡…‘‘›…Šƒ‰‡ǡ™Š‹Ž‡

–Š‡†‡…”‡ƒ•‡‹‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ˜‹•‹–‘”••’‡†‹‰ƒ‘—–•–‘ͳͺ„‹ŽŽ‹‘ȋ†‡…Ž‹‡‘ˆͺͶΨȌˆ”‘ʹͲͳͻǤ ‹‰—”‡ʹ•Š‘™•–Š‡Š‹•–‘”‹…ƒŽ–”‡†‘ˆ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ˜‹•‹–‘”ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•‹ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒˆ”‘›‡ƒ”•ʹͲͲͲ–‘

ʹƒ–ƒˆ‘”‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ˜‹•‹–‘”ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ƒ”‡…‘’‹Ž‡†ˆ”‘””‹˜ƒŽƒ”†•…‘’Ž‡–‡†„›ƒŽŽ˜‹•‹–‘”•ƒ””‹˜‹‰‹

‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ƒ––Š‡’‘‹–•‘ˆ‡–”›Ǥ 0

5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000

2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

Leila C. Rahnema ʹͻ

ʹͲʹͲǤ•‹†‡ˆ”‘–Š‡ʹͲʹͲ†‡…Ž‹‡‹ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ǡ–Š‡‘—–„”‡ƒŠƒ•ƒŽ•‘…ƒ—•‡†ƒ†‡…Ž‹‡‹ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•

ˆ‘”›‡ƒ”ʹͲͲ͵ˆ‘”ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǤ

Figure 2. Historical trend of international arrivals in Malaysia (2000-2020)

‘—”…‡ǣ‘—”‹•ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǡǤ†Ǥ

On the other hand, Brunei’s tourism sector has contributed to 5.6% of its 2019 GDP and only

•Ž‹‰Š–Ž›†‡…”‡ƒ•‡†‹ʹͲʹͲ–‘ͶǤͳΨǤŠ‡…Šƒ‰‡‹–”ƒ˜‡Žƒ†–‘—”‹•‹•ƒ–Ǧʹ͸Ǥͺؘ‡”•—•‹–•ǦͳǤʹΨ

”‡ƒŽ‡…‘‘›…Šƒ‰‡ǤŠ‡†‡…”‡ƒ•‡‹‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ˜‹•‹–‘”••’‡†‹‰ƒ‘—–•–‘ͳͲͷ‹ŽŽ‹‘

ȋ†‡…Ž‹‡‘ˆ͹ͶǤͶΨȌˆ”‘ʹͲͳͻǤ ‹‰—”‡͵•Š‘™•–Š‡Š‹•–‘”‹…ƒŽ–”‡†‘ˆ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ˜‹•‹–‘”ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•‹

”—‡‹ ˆ”‘ ›‡ƒ”• ʹͲͲͺ –‘ ʹͲͳͻǤ ‘’ƒ”‹‰ –Š‡ –Š”‡‡ …‘—–”‹‡•ǡ ‹– ‹• ‘–‹…‡† –Šƒ– ‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ ƒ†

Malaysia’s decline in tourism contributionǦ–‘ǦGDP halved from 2019 to 2020 while Brunei’s decline

™ƒ•Ž‡••Ǥ–•Š‘™•–Šƒ–…‘’ƒ”‡†–‘”—‡‹ǡ‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ƒ†ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒŠƒ˜‡ƒ„‹‰‰‡”†‡’‡†‡…›‘–Š‡

–‘—”‹••‡…–‘”Ǥ

Figure 3. Historical trend of international arrivals in Brunei (2008-2019)

‘—”…‡ǣ‹‹•–”›‘ˆ”‹ƒ”›‡•‘—”…‡•ƒ†‘—”‹•ǡ”—‡‹ǡȋǤ†ǤȌ

Š‡ Š‹Ž‹’’‹‡•̵ –‘–ƒŽ …‘–”‹„—–‹‘ ‘ˆ –”ƒ˜‡Ž ƒ† –‘—”‹• –‘ ‹• ʹʹǤͷΨ ƒ• ‘ˆ ʹͲͳͻ ƒ† Šƒ•

†‡…”‡ƒ•‡†–‘ͳͶǤ͸Ψ…‘‡ʹͲʹͲǤŠ‡…Šƒ‰‡‹–”ƒ˜‡Žƒ†–‘—”‹•‹•ƒ–ǦͶͳǤͶΨ…‘’ƒ”‡†–‘–Š‡

†‡…Ž‹‡‘ˆͻǤͷΨ”‡ƒŽ‡…‘‘›ǤŠ‹•†‡…Ž‹‡‹–Š‡…‘–”‹„—–‹‘‘ˆ–‘—”‹•–‘‹•‡˜‹†‡–™‹–Š

–Š‡•Šƒ”’†‡…”‡ƒ•‡‘ˆ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ˆ‘”ʹͲʹͲƒ••‡‡‹ ‹‰—”‡ͶǤ‡ƒ™Š‹Ž‡ǡ–Š‡ʹͲͳͻ–‘–ƒŽ

…‘–”‹„—–‹‘‘ˆ–”ƒ˜‡Žƒ†–‘—”‹•–‘–‘–ƒŽ‡’Ž‘›‡–‹•ƒ–ʹʹǤͺΨǡ™Š‹…Š–Š‡†‡…Ž‹‡†–‘ͳͻǤʹΨ…‘‡

ʹͲʹͲǤŠ‡†‡…Ž‹‡‘ˆʹͳǤͳΨ‹‡’Ž‘›‡–‹•…ƒ—•‡†„›–Š‡•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–†‡…”‡ƒ•‡‹–‘—”‹•–ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•

0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000 30000000

2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000

- 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 350,000.00

2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

͵Ͳ The application of the gravity model to the tourism industry of the Philippines and select neighboring countries

ȋ ‹‰—”‡ ͶȌǡ ”‡•—Ž–‹‰ ‹ ƒ› ˆ‘”‡…Ž‘•‡† –‘—”‹• „—•‹‡••‡•Ǥ Š‡ …Šƒ‰‡ ‹ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ˜‹•‹–‘”

•’‡†‹‰‹•ƒ–Ǧ͹ͺǤͺΨ‹ʹͲʹͲǡ™Š‹Ž‡†‘‡•–‹…˜‹•‹–‘”•’‡†‹‰‹•ƒ–Ǧ͵ͷǤͷΨǤŠ‡–‘—”‹•‹†—•–”›̵•

…‘–”‹„—–‹‘ –‘ –Š‡ Š‹Ž‹’’‹‡•̵ ‹• —…Š Žƒ”‰‡” –Šƒ –Šƒ– ‘ˆ ‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ǡ ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǡ ƒ† ”—‡‹Ǥ

‘™‡˜‡”ǡ–Š‡†‡…Ž‹‡…ƒ—•‡†„›–Š‡•—’’”‡••‡†–‘—”‹•ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡•‹ʹͲʹͲŠƒ•ƒ•‹‹Žƒ”–”‡†ƒ•‘ˆ

‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ƒ†ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǤ–…ƒ„‡•ƒ‹†–Šƒ––Š‡‘ˆ–Š‡Š‹Ž‹’’‹‡•ƒŽ•‘Šƒ•ƒ•–”‘‰†‡’‡†‡…›–‘

–Š‡–‘—”‹••‡…–‘”Ǥ

Figure 4. Historical trend of international arrivals in the Philippines (1999-2020)

‘—”…‡ǣ‡’ƒ”–‡–‘ˆ‘—”‹•ȋǤ†ǤȌ

‘–”ƒ•–‹‰–Š‡ˆ‘—”•‡Ž‡…–‡†…‘—–”‹‡•ǡ‹–‹•‘„•‡”˜‡†–Šƒ–ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒŠƒ•–Š‡‰”‡ƒ–‡•–—„‡”‘ˆ

‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ƒ…”‘••–Š‡ˆ‘—”•‡Ž‡…–‡†…‘—–”‹‡•ǡˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‡†„›‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ǡ–Š‡–Š‡Š‹Ž‹’’‹‡•ǡ

ƒ†ǡŽƒ•–Ž›ǡ”—‡‹ǤŠ‡†”‘’‹ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•‹–Š‡›‡ƒ”ʹͲʹͲǡˆ‘”ƒŽŽˆ‘—”…‘—–”‹‡•ǡŠƒ•…‘•–‹–—–‡†‘Ž›

ͳ͸Ψ‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ˆ‘”›‡ƒ”ʹͲͳͻǤŠ‡–‘–ƒŽ†‡…Ž‹‡‘ˆƒ„‘—–͹Ͷ؈‘”–Š‡›‡ƒ”ʹͲʹͲŠƒ•„‡‡…ƒ—•‡†

„›–Š‡”‡•–”‹…–‹‘‹ƒ‹”‘˜‡‡–ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰–Š‡‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽǦͳͻŽ‘…†‘™’‘Ž‹…‹‡•Ǥ•‹†‡ˆ”‘

–Š‡†‡…Ž‹‡‹–Š‡›‡ƒ”ʹͲʹͲǡ ‹‰—”‡ͷƒŽ•‘•Š‘™•ƒ†‡…Ž‹‡ˆ‘”–Š‡›‡ƒ”•ʹͲͲͺƒ†ʹͲͲͻǤŠ‡•‹ƒ

ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ…”‹•‹•‹›‡ƒ”•ʹͲͲͺ–‘ʹͲͲͻ…‘—Ž†Šƒ˜‡ƒˆˆ‡…–‡†–Š‡†”‘’‹‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•™Š‹Ž‡–Š‡

’ƒ†‡‹……‘—Ž†Šƒ˜‡…ƒ—•‡†–Š‡•Šƒ”’†‡…Ž‹‡‹–Š‡‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ˆ‘”–Š‡›‡ƒ”ʹͲʹͲǤ Figure 5: Comparison of International Arrivals

‘—”…‡•ǣ‡’ƒ”–‡–‘ˆ‘—”‹•ȋǤ†ǤȌǢ‹‰ƒ’‘”‡‘—”‹•‘ƒ”†ȋǤ†ǤȌǢ‘—”‹•ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǡȋǤ†ǤȌǢ‹‹•–”›‘ˆ”‹ƒ”›‡•‘—”…‡•

ƒ†‘—”‹•ǡ”—‡‹ȋǤ†ǤȌ

0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000

2020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005200420032002200120001999

0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000 30000000

2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Philippines Singapore Malaysia Brunei

Leila C. Rahnema ͵ͳ

4 Methodology and Data Requirements

Š‡„ƒ•‹…‹•‘†‹ˆ‹‡†–‘ƒƒŽ›œ‡–‘—”‹•‹–Š‡Š‹Ž‹’’‹‡•ƒ†•‡Ž‡…–‡†…‘—–”‹‡•ǤŠ‡•‘ˆ

both origin and destination countries, used as a control variable, are collected from the IMF’s WEO

†ƒ–ƒ„ƒ•‡ǡ ™Š‹Ž‡ †ƒ–ƒ ˆ‘” –‘—”‹•– ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ• ƒ”‡ ‰‡‡”ƒ–‡† —•‹‰ ’‡”Ǧ…‘—–”› ‘—–„‘—† –‘—”‹• ˆ‹Ž‡•

accessed via World Tourism Organization’s Yearbook of Tourism Statistics, Compendium of Tourism

–ƒ–‹•–‹…•ǡƒ††ƒ–ƒˆ‹Ž‡•Ǥ

Š‡ ‘†‡Ž ‹…Ž—†‡•–‘—”‹• ˆƒ…–‘”• –Šƒ–ƒ› Šƒ˜‡ ‹ˆŽ—‡…‡†–Š‡ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ˆŽ‘™ ’ƒ––‡”‘ˆ

•‡˜‡”ƒŽ‘”‹‰‹…‘—–”‹‡•–‘‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ǡƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǡ”—‡‹ǡƒ†–Š‡Š‹Ž‹’’‹‡•ǤŠ‡‘†‡Žˆ‘”‹‰ƒ’‘”‡

Šƒ•Ͷʹ‘”‹‰‹…‘—–”‹‡•™‹–Š„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ†ƒ–ƒˆ”‘ͳͻ͹ͺ–‘ʹͲͳͻǡ™Š‹Ž‡–Š‡‘†‡Žˆ‘”ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒŠƒ•͵ͻ

‘”‹‰‹…‘—–”‹‡•™‹–Š„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ†ƒ–ƒˆ”‘ͳͻͻ͹–‘ʹͲͳͻǤ—‡–‘†ƒ–ƒŽ‹‹–ƒ–‹‘•ˆ‘””—‡‹̵•‘†‡Žǡ‹–

‘Ž›Šƒ•ͳͻ‘”‹‰‹…‘—–”‹‡•™‹–Š„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ†ƒ–ƒˆ”‘ʹͲͲͺ–‘ʹͲͳͻǤŠ‡Š‹Ž‹’’‹‡‘†‡ŽŠƒ•ƒ™‹†‡”

•‡–™‹–ŠͳʹͲ‘”‹‰‹…‘—–”‹‡•ˆ”‘ͳͻͻͷ–‘ʹͲͳͻǤ

‹•–ƒ…‡ ‹ ‹Ž‘‡–‡”• ȋȌǡ ™Š‹…Š ’”‘š‹‡• ˆ‘” –”ƒ†‡ …‘•–• ‹ –”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽ ‰”ƒ˜‹–› ‘†‡Ž•ǡ ‹•

”‡–”‹‡˜‡†ˆ”‘–Š‡†‹•–ƒ…‡‡ƒ•—”‡•ǤŠ‡†‹•–ƒ…‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡‹•‹–Š‡ˆ‘”‘ˆƒ•‹’Ž‡†‹•–ƒ…‡

‡ƒ•—”‡ǤŽ›‘‡…‹–›‹•‡…‡••ƒ”›–‘…ƒŽ…—Žƒ–‡‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ†‹•–ƒ…‡•ǡ–Šƒ–‹•ǡˆ”‘–Š‡…ƒ’‹–ƒŽ‘ˆ„‘–Š

…‘—–”‹‡•‹‹Ž‘‡–‡”•ȋƒ›‡”Ƭ‹‰ƒ‰‘ǡʹͲͲ͸ǡ’ǤͳͲȌǤŠ‡†‹•–ƒ…‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡ƒ›…‘•‹†‡”–”ƒ•’‘”–

–‡…Š‘Ž‘‰›„—–†‘‡•‘–…Šƒ‰‡”ƒ†‹…ƒŽŽ›„‡…ƒ—•‡‘ˆ–Š‹•Ǥƒ††‹•–ƒ…‡ƒ……‘—–ˆ‘”–Š‡–”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽ

˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ǤŠ‡‘–Š‡”ˆƒ…–‘”•”‡’”‡•‡––Š‡–‘—”‹•†—›˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•Ǥ

Š‡–”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽ‘†‡Ž•–ƒ–‡•–Šƒ––Š‡Žƒ”‰‡”–Š‡‡…‘‘‹…ƒ••‘”‘ˆ…‘—–”‹‡•ǡ–Š‡‘”‡ˆŽ‘™

‹•‡š’‡…–‡†„‡–™‡‡–Š‡Ǥ–ƒŽ•‘•Š‘™•ƒ‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’„‡–™‡‡†‹•–ƒ…‡ƒ†ˆŽ‘™•‹…‡–Š‡

‰”‡ƒ–‡”–Š‡†‹•–ƒ…‡„‡–™‡‡…‘—–”‹‡•ǡ–Š‡ˆ‡™‡”–”ƒ•ƒ…–‹‘•„‡–™‡‡–Š‡Ǥ––Š‡•ƒ‡–‹‡ǡ–Š‡

‡š–‡†‡†‘†‡Žˆ‘…—•‡•‘–Š‡ƒƒŽ›•‹•‘ˆ–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡…–•‘ˆ–‘—”‹•˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡••—…Šƒ•–”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽ

˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ȋ‘ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽŽƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ǡ‹‘”‹–›Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ǡ…‘–‹‰—‘—•ǡ…‘Ž‘‹ƒŽŽ‹•ǡƒ†…‘Ž‘‹œ‡”Ȍǡ‰‘˜‡”ƒ…‡

‹†‹…ƒ–‘”•ǡ…‘‡…–‹˜‹–›‹†‹…ƒ–‘”••—…Šƒ•˜‹•ƒǦˆ”‡‡’‘Ž‹…›ƒ††‹”‡…–ˆŽ‹‰Š–ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„‹Ž‹–›ǡ–Š‡ʹͲͲͺ•‹ƒ

ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ…”‹•‹•ǡƒ†–Š‡ʹͲͲ͵‘—–„”‡ƒǤ

Š‡ˆ‹Ž‡’”‘˜‹†‡•ƒ†ƒ–ƒ•‡–™‹–Š•‡˜‡”ƒŽ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ȋ„ƒ•‡†‘–Š‡‘”Ž† ƒ…–„‘‘Ȍ–Šƒ–

‹†‡–‹ˆ›ˆ‘”‡ƒ…Š…‘—–”›—’–‘ˆ‘—”Ž‘‰Ǧ–‡”ƒ†—’–‘–Š”‡‡•Š‘”–Ǧ–‡”…‘Ž‘‹œ‡”•‹–Š‡…‘—–”›̵•

™Š‘Ž‡Š‹•–‘”›ȋƒ›‡”Ƭ‹‰ƒ‰‘ǡʹͲͲ͸ǡ’ǤͺȌǤŠ‡†ƒ–ƒ„ƒ•‡’”‘˜‹†‡•–Š‡‘–Š‡”„‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ†ƒ–ƒƒ•‹†‡ˆ”‘

–Š‡•‹’Ž‡†‹•–ƒ…‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡—•‡†ˆ‘”–Š‹•‰”ƒ˜‹–›‘†‡Žǡ™Š‹…Šƒ”‡–Š‡ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‹‰ǣȋͳȌˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽ‘”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ

Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡•ƒ†Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡••’‘‡„›ƒ–Ž‡ƒ•–ʹͲΨ‘ˆ–Š‡’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡…‘—–”›ȋ̴ Ȍƒ†

–Š‡‹‘”‹–›Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ȋ̴Ȍ‹ˆŽƒ‰—ƒ‰‡‹••’‘‡„›ƒ–Ž‡ƒ•–ͻΨ‘ˆ–Š‡’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘‹

„‘–Š…‘—–”‹‡•ǡȋʹȌ…‘–‹‰—‘—•˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡–‘‹†‹…ƒ–‡™Š‡–Š‡”–Š‡–™‘…‘—–”‹‡•ƒ”‡…‘–‹‰—‘—•ƒ†•Šƒ”‡

–Š‡•ƒ‡„‘”†‡”ȋȌǡȋ͵ȌŠƒ˜‡Šƒ†ƒ…‘‘…‘Ž‘‹œ‡”ƒˆ–‡”ͳͻͶͷȋȌǡȋͶȌŠƒ˜‡

‡˜‡”Šƒ†ƒ…‘Ž‘‹ƒŽŽ‹ȋȌǡƒ†ȋͷȌŠƒ˜‡Šƒ†ƒ…‘Ž‘‹ƒŽ”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’ƒˆ–‡”ͳͻͶͷȋͶͷȌȋƒ›‡”

Ƭ‹‰ƒ‰‘ǡʹͲͲ͸ǡ’ǤͳʹȌǤ‡˜‡”ƒŽŽƒ‰—ƒ‰‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•†‡•…”‹„‡†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–‹†‹…‡•‘ˆŽ‹‰—‹•–‹…’”‘š‹‹–›Ǥ

Š‡”‡ƒ›„‡—’–‘–Š”‡‡‘ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽŽƒ‰—ƒ‰‡•ˆ‘”‡ƒ…Š…‘—–”›ǡ–Š‡Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡••’‘‡„›‘”‡–ŠƒʹͲΨ

‘ˆ–Š‡’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘ƒ†–Š‘•‡•’‘‡„›ƒ•‡‰‡–‘ˆͻΨ–‘ʹͲΨ‘ˆ–Š‡’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘Ȍȋƒ›‡”Ƭ‹‰ƒ‰‘ǡ ʹͲͲ͸ǡ’ǤͻȌǤ…‘‘‹•–•ƒŽ•‘‘ˆ–‡—•‡…‘Ž‘‹ƒŽŽ‹ƒ‰‡˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•–‘’”‘š›ˆ‘”•‹‹Žƒ”‹–‹‡•‹…—Ž–—”ƒŽǡ

’‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽǡ‘”Ž‡‰ƒŽ‹•–‹–—–‹‘•ȋƒ›‡”Ƭ‹‰ƒ‰‘ǡʹͲͲ͸ǡ’ǤͺȌǤ

Š‡ ‘”Ž†™‹†‡ ‘˜‡”ƒ…‡ †‹…ƒ–‘”• ”‡’‘”–• ƒ‰‰”‡‰ƒ–‡ ƒ† ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ ‰‘˜‡”ƒ…‡ ‹†‹…ƒ–‘”•

‘˜‡”–Š‡’‡”‹‘†ͳͻͻ͸–‘ʹͲͳͺǡˆ‘”•‹š†‹‡•‹‘•‘ˆ‰‘˜‡”ƒ…‡ǣȋͳȌ‘‹…‡ƒ†……‘—–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›ǡȋʹȌ

‘Ž‹–‹…ƒŽ–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›ƒ†„•‡…‡‘ˆ‹‘Ž‡…‡ǡȋ͵Ȍ‘˜‡”‡–ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡‡••ǡȋͶȌ‡‰—Žƒ–‘”›—ƒŽ‹–›ǡȋͷȌ

—Ž‡‘ˆƒ™ǡƒ†ȋ͸Ȍ‘–”‘Ž‘ˆ‘””—’–‹‘ȋ‘”Ž†ƒǡǤ†Ǥǡ’ƒ”ƒǤͳȌǤ‹‰ƒ’‘”‡–‘’•‘•–†‹‡•‹‘•

‘ˆ‰‘˜‡”ƒ…‡‡š…‡’–ˆ‘”˜‘‹…‡ƒ†“—ƒŽ‹–›ǤŠ‡•‡ƒ‰‰”‡‰ƒ–‡‹†‹…ƒ–‘”•…‘„‹‡–Š‡˜‹‡™•‘ˆƒ›

‡–‡”’”‹•‡•ǡ…‹–‹œ‡•ǡƒ†‡š’‡”–•—”˜‡›”‡•’‘†‡–•‹‹†—•–”‹ƒŽƒ††‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰…‘—–”‹‡•ȋ‘”Ž†

ƒǡǤ†Ǥǡ’ƒ”ƒǤʹȌǤ

‘‡…–‹˜‹–›‹†‹…ƒ–‘”•ƒ”‡…‘’‘•‡†‘ˆȋͳȌ˜‹•ƒ’‘Ž‹…›ƒ†ȋʹȌ–Š‡ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ†‹”‡…–ˆŽ‹‰Š–•–‘

ƒ› ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ƒ‹”’‘”– ‹ –Š‡ …‘—–”› ‘ˆ †‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘Ǥ Š‡ ˜‹•ƒ ’‘Ž‹…› ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡ •‹‰‹ˆ‹‡• ˜‹•ƒǦˆ”‡‡

ƒ……‡••–‘–Š‡…‘—–”›ƒ††‘‡•‘–‹…Ž—†‡‡Ž‡…–”‘‹…˜‹•ƒ•ǤŠ‡•‡˜‹•ƒ’‘Ž‹…‹‡•ƒ”‡ƒ—ƒŽŽ›•‘—”…‡†

‘Ž‹‡–Š”‘—‰Š‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ™‡„•‹–‡•‘ˆ–Š‡‘”‹‰‹…‘—–”‹‡•Ǥ––Š‡•ƒ‡–‹‡ǡ–Š‡†ƒ–ƒˆ‘”–Š‡ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„‹Ž‹–›

‘ˆ†‹”‡…–ˆŽ‹‰Š–•‹••‘—”…‡†ƒ—ƒŽŽ›–Š”‘—‰Š™™™Ǥ•›•…ƒ‡”Ǥ…‘Ǥ

‡ƒ”Ǧ†—‹‡•ˆ‘”›‡ƒ”•ʹͲͲ͵ƒ†ʹͲͲͺ–‘ʹͲͲͻŠƒ˜‡„‡‡‹…Ž—†‡†‹–Š‡ƒ—‰‡–‡†–‘•‡‡‹ˆ

–Š‡•‡ƒ›Šƒ˜‡‹’ƒ…–‡†–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ˆ‘”–Š‡•‡Ž‡…–‡†…‘—–”‹‡•Ǥ‘—”‹•–ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•‹›‡ƒ”ʹͲͲ͵Šƒ•

•Š‘™•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–†‡…Ž‹‡ȋ”‡ˆ‡”–‘‡…–‹‘͵Ȍ„‡…ƒ—•‡‘ˆ–Š‡ʹͲͲ͵‘—–„”‡ƒǡ™Š‹Ž‡–Š‡‰Ž‘„ƒŽ

͵ʹ The application of the gravity model to the tourism industry of the Philippines and select neighboring countries

ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ…”‹•‹•‘ˆʹͲͲͺ–‘ʹͲͲͻŠƒ†ƒ•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–‹’ƒ…–‘–Š‡‰Ž‘„ƒŽ‡…‘‘›ǤŠ‡•‡…”‹•‹•˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•

ƒ”‡ƒ††‡†–‘–Š‡‘†‡Ž–‘–‡•–‹ˆ–Š‡”‡‹•ƒ‹’ƒ…–‘–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ˆ‘”‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ǡƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǡ”—‡‹ǡ

ƒ†–Š‡Š‹Ž‹’’‹‡•Ǥ

Š‹••–—†›—•‡•ƒ‘‹••‘”‡‰”‡••‹‘‡–Š‘†’”‘’‘•‡†„›‹Ž˜ƒƒ†‡”‡›”‘ȋʹͲͲ͸ȌǤ–‹•ƒŽ•‘—•‡†

™‹†‡Ž›„›‘–Š‡””‡•‡ƒ”…Š‡”•ȋ•‡‡ǡˆ‘”‡šƒ’Ž‡ǡ’”‹‰Ƭ”‘••ƒǡʹͲͳ͵Ǣ‡‡ǡʹͲͳ͵Ǣ‡”‘‹ŽŽƒ‡–ƒŽǤǡ ʹͲͳ͸ȌǤ–‹•‹–‡”‡•–‹‰–‘‘–‡–Šƒ–‘•–‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ”–‹…Ž‡•ƒ„‘—–—•‡‘‹••‘”‡‰”‡••‹‘ǡ™Š‹…Š‹•

‡•–‹ƒ–‡† —•‹‰ “—ƒ•‹Ǧƒš‹— Ž‹‡Ž‹Š‘‘† ‡•–‹ƒ–‘”•Ǥ – ‹• ‹’‘”–ƒ– –‘ ‡’Šƒ•‹œ‡ –Šƒ– –Š‡

†‡’‡†‡– ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡ †ƒ–ƒ —•‡† ‹ –Š‡•‡ ‘†‡Ž• ”‡ƒ‹• —•’‡…‹ˆ‹‡† ƒ† †‘‡• ‘– …‘•‹†‡” –Š‡

†‹•–”‹„—–‹‘ ”‡“—‹”‡† ˆ‘” ‘‹••‘ ”‡‰”‡••‹‘Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ ƒ• ‡”„‡‡ ȋʹͲͳ͹Ȍ Š‹‰ŠŽ‹‰Š–•ǡ …‘•‹•–‡–

‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ…‘†‹–‹‘ƒŽ‡ƒ•…ƒ„‡†‘‡™‹–Š‘—––Š‡‡‡†–‘”‡’‘”–…‘†‹–‹‘ƒŽ†‹•–”‹„—–‹‘••‹…‡

–Š‡‘‹••‘†‹•–”‹„—–‹‘‹•‘–˜ƒŽ‹†‹–Š‡•‡‘†‡Ž•ǡ–Š‡‘‹••‘Ǧ’•‡—†‘Ǧƒš‹—Ž‹‡Ž‹Š‘‘†ȋȌ

‡•–‹ƒ–‘”ǡƒ•ƒ–‘•‹Ž˜ƒƒ†‡”‡›”‘ȋʹͲͲ͸Ȍ•—‰‰‡•–Ǥ

–Š‹••–—†›ǡ–Š‡‘†‡Ž—•‡†‹•‘†‹ˆ‹‡†–‘‹…Ž—†‡‘–Š‡”ˆƒ…–‘”•‹ˆŽ—‡…‹‰‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ–‘—”‹•

ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ ƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡•Ǥ Š‡ ‡š–‡†‡† ‘†‡Ž ƒƒŽ›œ‡• –Š‡ ‡ˆˆ‡…–• ‘ˆ …—Ž–—”ƒŽ ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡• ƒ† ‘–Š‡” …—Ž–—”ƒŽ

•‹‹Žƒ”‹–‹‡•‘”†‹••‹‹Žƒ”‹–‹‡•„‡–™‡‡˜‹•‹–‹‰’ƒ”–‡”•‹–Š‡ƒ’’”‡…‹ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ’‘••‹„Ž‡’‘Ž‹…›…”‡ƒ–‹‘

”‡Žƒ–‡†–‘–Š‡…—Ž–—”ƒŽ•›‡–”‹‡•‘ˆ–‘—”‹•–•ǤŠ‡‘†‡Ž•’‡…‹ˆ‹‡†ƒŽ•‘‹…Ž—†‡•…‘–”‘Ž˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•–Šƒ–

ƒ……‘—–ˆ‘””‡‰‹‘Ǧ•’‡…‹ˆ‹…‘”…‘—–”›Ǧ•’‡…‹ˆ‹…ˆƒ…–‘”•ƒ†‘–Š‡”ˆƒ…–‘”•–Šƒ–ƒ›Š‹†‡”‘”ˆƒ…‹Ž‹–ƒ–‡

international tourism flows. The equation below is the study’s general hypothesis and main equation:

ln 𝑇𝑇_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖}= 𝛼𝛼₀+ 𝛼𝛼₁ln 𝑞𝑞_𝑖𝑖+ 𝛼𝛼₂ln 𝑞𝑞_𝑖𝑖+ 𝛼𝛼₃ln 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖}+ 𝛼𝛼₄𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝐶𝐶𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝐶𝐶_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖}+ 𝛼𝛼₅𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑑𝑑_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖}+ 𝛼𝛼₆𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖} + α₇𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐿𝐿𝑑𝑑𝐶𝐶_ij+ α₈𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶_ij+ α₉𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑑𝑑𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶_ij+ α₁₀𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶45_ij+ α₁₁𝐺𝐺𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐿𝐿𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶_j + α₁₂𝑉𝑉𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝐿𝐿_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖} + α₁₃𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖}+ 𝜀𝜀_{𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖}

Š‡Ž‹•–‘ˆ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•‹•–ƒ„—Žƒ–‡†„‡Ž‘™ǣ Table 1. List of Variables

Variable Description

Tij ‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ†ƒ–ƒ‘ˆ…‘—–”›i™‹–Š…‘—–”›j

qi —ƒŽ†ƒ–ƒˆ‘”…‘—–”›i

qj —ƒŽ†ƒ–ƒˆ‘”…‘—–”›j

distij ‹•–ƒ…‡‹‹Ž‘‡–‡”•„‡–™‡‡…‘—–”‹‡•iƒ†j Contiguousij Šƒ”‡†„‘”†‡”‘ˆ…‘—–”‹‡•iƒ†j

LangOffij …‘‘‘ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽŽƒ‰—ƒ‰‡

LangMinij •‡…‘†Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡‹••’‘‡„›ƒ–Ž‡ƒ•–ͻΨ‘ˆ–Š‡’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘

Colonyij ‘‘‘Ž‘‹ƒŽŽ‹

Colonizerij ‘‘…‘Ž‘‹œ‡”ƒˆ–‡”ͳͻͶͷ Col45ij ƒ•…‘Ž‘‹ƒŽ”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’ƒˆ–‡”ͳͻͶͷ

Governancej ‘˜‡”ƒ…‡‹†‹…ƒ–‘”•‘ˆ–Š‡†‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘…‘—–”›

Connectivityij ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ†‹”‡…–ˆŽ‹‰Š–•–‘ƒ›‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ‹”’‘”–•‹–Š‡†‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘…‘—–”›

Visaij ‹•ƒǦˆ”‡‡’‘Ž‹…›‘ˆ…‘—–”›‹–‘…‘—–”›Œ

Crisisij •‹ƒ ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ…”‹•‹•ˆ‘”›‡ƒ”•ʹͲͲͺǦʹͲͲͻ

ℰ ””‘”–‡”

5 Empirical Results 5.1 Singapore

The results for the regression for Singapore’s tourism GM are seen in Tables 2 to 5. Table 2 shows

–Šƒ––Š‡‘ˆ–Š‡‘”‹‰‹…‘—–”›‹••‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ––‘–‘—”‹•ˆŽ‘™•™Š‹Ž‡–Š‡‘ˆ–Š‡†‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘

…‘—–”›ǡ‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ǡ‹•‘–•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ––‘–Š‡–‘—”‹•ˆŽ‘™ǤŠ‹•‡ƒ•–Šƒ––Š‡ˆŽ‘™‘ˆ–‘—”‹•–•…ƒ„‡

†‡–‡”‹‡†„›–Š‡‡…‘‘‹…’‘™‡”‘ˆ–Š‡…‘—–”›‘ˆ‘”‹‰‹ǤŠ‹•‹•‹–—‹–‹˜‡•‹…‡–”ƒ˜‡Ž‡”•ˆ”‘ƒ

Leila C. Rahnema ͵͵

…‘—–”› ™‹–Š ‰”‡ƒ–‡” Šƒ˜‡ ‘”‡ •’‡†‹‰ ’‘™‡”Ǥ ‹•–ƒ…‡ ‹• …‘•‹•–‡–Ž› •‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– ƒ†

‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡Ž›•‹‰‡†‹”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’–‘–Š‡–‘—”‹•ˆŽ‘™ǡ™Š‹…Š‹•‡š’‡…–‡†ˆ”‘–Š‡‘†‡ŽǤŠ‡ˆƒ”–Š‡”

›‘—ƒ”‡ˆ”‘–Š‡†‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘…‘—–”›ǡ–Š‡Ž‡••Ž‹‡Ž››‘—ƒ”‡–‘–”ƒ˜‡Ž–‘–Šƒ–†‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘ǡ‰‹˜‡–Š‡

Š‹‰Š‡”…‘•–‘ˆ–”ƒ˜‡ŽǤ

Table 2. Tourism model with CEPII Variables

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

TOURISM TOURISM TOURISM TOURISM TOURISM

”‹‰‹ ͲǤͲ͹ͳͲȗȗȗ ͲǤͲ͹ͳͶȗȗȗ ͲǤͲ͹ʹʹȗȗȗ ͲǤͲ͹ʹͳȗȗȗ ͲǤͲ͹ʹͳȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲͳ͸ʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͳ͹ͳȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͳ͹ͳȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͳͺͲȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͳͺͲȌ

‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘ ͲǤͲͲͳ͹͸ ͲǤͲͲͳ͹͹ ǦͲǤͲͲͲʹ͸ͻ ǦͲǤͲͲͲʹͷͷ ǦͲǤͲͲͲʹͷͷ

ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͶͷȌ ȋͲǤͲͲ͵Ͷ͵Ȍ ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͶͶȌ ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͶͲȌ ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͶͲȌ

ǦͲǤͳ͵Ͷȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳʹͺȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳʹͺȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳʹͺȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳʹͺȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͷʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͶͲȌ ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͶͶȌ ȋͲǤͲͲ͵͹ͲȌ ȋͲǤͲͲ͵͹ͲȌ

ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ ͲǤͲͷʹʹȗȗȗ ͲǤͲͶͲͻȗȗȗ ͲǤͲͶͳͳȗȗȗ ͲǤͲͶͳͳȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲͷ͸ͻȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͷͷͷȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͷͺ͸Ȍ ȋͲǤͲͲͷͺ͸Ȍ

‹‘”‹–›ƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ ǦͲǤͲͲ͸Ͳ͹ ǦͲǤͲͳ͵͹ȗ ǦͲǤͲͳ͵͹ȗ ǦͲǤͲͳ͵͹ȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲͷͶͶȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͷͶͷȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͷ͵ͳȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͷ͵ͳȌ

‘–‹‰—‘—• ͲǤͳͶʹȗȗȗ ͲǤͳͶʹȗȗȗ ͲǤͳͶʹȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲ͸͹͹Ȍ ȋͲǤͲͲ͹͵͹Ȍ ȋͲǤͲͲ͹͵͹Ȍ

‘Ž‘‹œ‡” ǦͲǤͲͲͲͷͲʹ ǦͲǤͲͲͲͷͲʹ

ȋͲǤͲͲ͸͸͹Ȍ ȋͲǤͲͲ͸͸͹Ȍ

‘•–ƒ– ʹǤ͸͸ʹȗȗȗ ʹǤͷͻͷȗȗȗ ʹǤ͸ͳʹȗȗȗ ʹǤ͸ͳ͵ȗȗȗ ʹǤ͸ͳ͵ȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͷʹͻȌ ȋͲǤͲͷͶͲȌ ȋͲǤͲͷͶ͵Ȍ ȋͲǤͲͷͻͻȌ ȋͲǤͲͷͻͻȌ

„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘• ͳ͵ʹ͹ ͳ͵ʹ͹ ͳ͵ʹ͹ ͳ͵ʹ͹ ͳ͵ʹ͹

ʹ ͲǤ͸͵ͷ ͲǤ͸ͷͳ ͲǤ͸͹Ͳ ͲǤ͸͹Ͳ ͲǤ͸͹Ͳ

‘–‡ǣ–ƒ†ƒ”†‡””‘”•‹’ƒ”‡–Š‡•‡•Ǣȗ’δͲǤͲͷǡȗȗ’δͲǤͲͳǡȗȗȗ’δͲǤͲͲͳ

• ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‘–Š‡” †—› ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ǡ ‘Ž› ‹‰ƒ’‘”‡̵• ‘ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽ Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ ƒ† …‘–‹‰—‹–› ƒ”‡

•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ– –‘ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•Ǥ Š‹• ‡ƒ• –Šƒ– ‘™‹‰ ƒ› ‘ˆ –Š‡ ˆ‘—” ‘ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽ Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡• ‹

‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ ȋ‰Ž‹•Šǡ ƒŽƒ›ǡ ƒ‹Žǡ ƒ† ƒ†ƒ”‹Ȍ ™‹ŽŽ Ž‹‡Ž› ‹ˆŽ—‡…‡ ›‘—” –”ƒ˜‡Ž –‘ ‹‰ƒ’‘”‡Ǥ

‘—–”‹‡•…‘–‹‰—‘—•–‘‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ȋ•—…Šƒ•ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒƒ††‘‡•‹ƒȌ™‹ŽŽƒŽ•‘Ž‹‡Ž›‹ˆŽ—‡…‡–”ƒ˜‡Ž–‘

‹‰ƒ’‘”‡•‹…‡…‘–‹‰—‹–›‹••‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ––‘–Š‡–‘—”‹•‘†‡ŽǤ

ƒ„Ž‡͵‹…Ž—†‡•–Š‡‰‘˜‡”ƒ…‡‹†‡š˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡–‘–Š‡‘†‡ŽǤŠ‡–ƒ„Ž‡•Š‘™•–Šƒ––Š‡‰‘˜‡”ƒ…‡

˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•†‘‘–•Š‘™•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ…‡–‘–Š‡–‘—”‹•‰”ƒ˜‹–›‘†‡ŽǤ–ƒ›„‡„‡…ƒ—•‡‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ǡƒ•ƒ

–‘—”‹•†‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘ǡŠƒ•‡˜‡”•‹…‡Š‡Ž†ƒ‰‘‘†‰‘˜‡”ƒ…‡‹ƒ‰‡ƒ†Šƒ•‘–„‡‡–ƒ‰‰‡†ƒ•—•ƒˆ‡

‘”’”‘„Ž‡ƒ–‹…Ǥ

Table 3. Tourism model with Governance Index Variables

(1) (2)

TOURISM TOURISM

”‹‰‹ ͲǤͲ͹ͳͲȗȗȗ ͲǤͲ͹ͳͳȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲͳ͸ʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͳ͹ͺȌ

‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘ ͲǤͲͲͳ͹͸ ǦͲǤͲͲͲͷ͸Ͷ

ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͶͷȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͺͺͲȌ

ǦͲǤͳ͵Ͷȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳͶ͵ȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͷʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͲ͵͹͹Ȍ

‘˜‡”ƒ…‡ ͲǤͲͳͳͶ

ȋͲǤͲͲ͹Ͷ͵Ȍ

‘•–ƒ– ʹǤ͸͸ʹȗȗȗ ʹǤ͹ͷͻȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͷʹͻȌ ȋͲǤͳͳ͵Ȍ

„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘• ͳ͵ʹ͹ ͹Ͳ͸

ʹ ͲǤ͸͵ͷ ͲǤ͸ͷͺ

‘–‡ǣ–ƒ†ƒ”†‡””‘”•‹’ƒ”‡–Š‡•‡•Ǣȗ’δͲǤͲͷǡȗȗ’δͲǤͲͳǡȗȗȗ’δͲǤͲͲͳ

ƒ„Ž‡Ͷ‹–‡‰”ƒ–‡•–™‘‡ƒ•‡‘ˆ–”ƒ˜‡Ž˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•–‘–Š‡–‘—”‹•Ǥ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡—•‡†ƒ•ƒ’”‘š›ˆ‘”–Š‡

‡ƒ•‡‘ˆ–”ƒ˜‡Ž‹•–Š‡ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ†‹”‡…–ˆŽ‹‰Š–•ǡ™Š‹Ž‡–Š‡‘–Š‡”‹†‹…ƒ–‘”‹•–Š‡˜‹•ƒ’‘Ž‹…›ˆ‘”‘Ǧ

‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ƒ•Ǥ‘–Š˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ƒ”‡•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–ƒ†’‘•‹–‹˜‡Ž›•‹‰‡†ˆ‘”–Š‡–‘—”‹•‘†‡ŽǤŠ‹•‡ƒ•

͵Ͷ The application of the gravity model to the tourism industry of the Philippines and select neighboring countries

–Šƒ–Šƒ˜‹‰ƒ†‹”‡…–ˆŽ‹‰Š––‘‹‰ƒ’‘”‡™‹ŽŽ‹ˆŽ—‡…‡–”ƒ˜‡Ž–‘–Š‡…‘—–”›Ǥ‹‡™‹•‡ǡŠƒ˜‹‰ƒŽ‡‹‡–

˜‹•ƒ’‘Ž‹…›ǡ•—…Šƒ•˜‹•ƒǦˆ”‡‡ƒ……‡••ǡ™‹ŽŽ’‘•‹–‹˜‡Ž›‹ˆŽ—‡…‡–”ƒ˜‡Ž–‘ƒ†‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘Ǥ Table 4. Tourism model with Connectivity Variables

(1) (2) (3)

TOURISM TOURISM TOURISM

”‹‰‹ ͲǤͲ͹ͳͲȗȗȗ ͲǤͲ͸͵ͺȗȗȗ ͲǤͲͷͻ͹ȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲͳ͸ʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͲ͸͹͸Ȍ ȋͲǤͲͲ͸ͲͲȌ

‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘ ͲǤͲͲͳ͹͸ ǦͳǤͲ͹ͻ ͵Ǥ͵ͻʹ

ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͶͷȌ ȋ͵ǤͻͲͶȌ ȋ͵ǤͶ͵͸Ȍ

ǦͲǤͳ͵Ͷȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳͲͻȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳͳ͵ȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͷʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͳͶͶȌ ȋͲǤͲͳͶͲȌ

‹”‡…– Ž‹‰Š–• ͲǤͲ͸͸Ͳȗ ͲǤͲ͸ͳͲȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲʹͺ͸Ȍ ȋͲǤͲʹͲͻȌ

ͲǤͳ͸͸ȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲ͵͸ͷȌ

‘•–ƒ– ʹǤ͸͸ʹȗȗȗ ͳ͸Ǥ͸ͻ ǦͶʹǤͲͻ

ȋͲǤͲͷʹͻȌ ȋͷͳǤʹʹȌ ȋͶͷǤͲ͹Ȍ

„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘• ͳ͵ʹ͹ ͶͲ ͶͲ

ʹ ͲǤ͸͵ͷ ͲǤ͹Ͷ͹ ͲǤͺͷͳ

‘–‡ǣ–ƒ†ƒ”†‡””‘”•‹’ƒ”‡–Š‡•‡•Ǣȗ’δͲǤͲͷǡȗȗ’δͲǤͲͳǡȗȗȗ’δͲǤͲͲͳ

ƒ•–Ž›ǡƒ„Ž‡ͷ•Š‘™•Š‘™–Š‡ʹͲͲ͵‘—–„”‡ƒƒ†–Š‡ʹͲͲͺˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ…”‹•‹•‹’ƒ…––Š‡–‘—”‹•

ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•‘ˆ‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ǤŠ‡”‡•—Ž–••Š‘™–Šƒ––Š‡‡‹–Š‡”–Š‡‘—–„”‡ƒ‘”–Š‡ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ…”‹•‹•Šƒ•

•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ…‡–‘–Š‡–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•‹‹‰ƒ’‘”‡ˆ‘”–Š‡›‡ƒ”•ʹͲͲ͵ǡʹͲͲͺǡƒ†ʹͲͲͻǤ Table 5. Tourism model with Financial Crisis Variable

(1) (2)

TOURISM TOURISM

ͲǤͲ͹ͳͲȗȗȗ ͲǤͲ͹ͳͳȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲͳ͸ʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͳ͸ͳȌ

ͲǤͲͲͳ͹͸ ͲǤͲͲʹ͵Ͷ

ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͶͷȌ ȋͲǤͲͲ͵Ͷ͸Ȍ

ǦͲǤͳ͵Ͷȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳ͵ͷȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͷʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͷ͵Ȍ

ʹͲͲͺ ‹”‹•‹• ǦͲǤͲͳͶͶ

ȋͲǤͲͲͻ͸ͳȌ

ʹͲͲ͵ ǦͲǤͲʹͺ͵

ȋͲǤͲͳͷͻȌ

‘•–ƒ– ʹǤ͸͸ʹȗȗȗ ʹǤ͸ͷͻȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͷʹͻȌ ȋͲǤͲͷ͵ͲȌ

„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘• ͳ͵ʹ͹ ͳ͵ʹ͹

ʹ ͲǤ͸͵ͷ ͲǤ͸͵͸

‘–‡ǣ–ƒ†ƒ”†‡””‘”•‹’ƒ”‡–Š‡•‡•Ǣȗ’δͲǤͲͷǡȗȗ’δͲǤͲͳǡȗȗȗ’δͲǤͲͲͳ

5.2 Malaysia

The results for the regression for Malaysia’s tourism gravity model are seen in Tables 6 to 10. Table

͸•Š‘™•–Š‡„ƒ•‹…‰”ƒ˜‹–›˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ǡ‡…‘‘‹…ƒ••ǡƒ††‹•–ƒ…‡‹–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•†ƒ–ƒǤ…‘Ž—

ͳǡ–Š‡–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•‰”ƒ˜‹–›‡“—ƒ–‹‘•Š‘™•–Šƒ––Š‡„ƒ•‹…˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ȋ‘ˆ„‘–ŠƒŽƒ›•‹ƒƒ†‘”‹‰‹

…‘—–”‹‡•Ȍƒ”‡ƒŽŽ•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–ƒ†…‘””‡…–Ž›•‹‰‡†ǤŠ‹•‡ƒ•–Šƒ––Š‡‡…‘‘‹……ƒ’ƒ…‹–›‘ˆ„‘–Š–Š‡

‘”‹‰‹ƒ††‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘…‘—–”›ǡƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǡ’Žƒ›•ƒ•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–ˆƒ…–‘”‹–Š‡‹”–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ǤŠ‡”‡–Š‡

•‡‡•–‘„‡ƒ’”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ˆ‘””‹…Š‡”…‘—–”‹‡•”ƒ–Š‡”–ŠƒŽ‡••”‹…Š…‘—–”‹‡•Ǥ‹•–ƒ…‡ǡŠ‘™‡˜‡”ǡŠƒ•ƒ

‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’™‹–Š–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ••‹‰‹ˆ›‹‰’”‡ˆ‡”‡…‡ˆ‘”ƒ•Š‘”–‡”†‹•–ƒ…‡”ƒ–Š‡”–Šƒ

Ž‘‰‡”†‹•–ƒ…‡‹–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽƒ…–‹˜‹–‹‡•‘ˆƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǤŠ‡•‡”‡•—Ž–•…‘’Ž›™‹–Š–Š‡„ƒ•‹…’”‡‹•‡

‘ˆ–Š‡Ǥ

Leila C. Rahnema ͵ͷ

Table 6. Basic Model for Tourism, Export and Total Trade data TOURISM (1)

‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘ ͲǤͲͶͶ͸ȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲͷͻʹȌ

”‹‰‹ ͲǤͲ͸͵Ͷȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲʹ͹ͻȌ

‹•–ƒ…‡ ǦͲǤͳͷ͸ȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲʹ͸ͻȌ

‘•–ƒ– ͲǤͺͻͲȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͳͷͶȌ

„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘• ͺͺͺ

ʹ ͲǤ͹ʹͷ

‘–‡ǣ–ƒ†ƒ”†‡””‘”•‹’ƒ”‡–Š‡•‡•Ǣȗ’δͲǤͲͷǡȗȗ’δͲǤͲͳǡȗȗȗ’δͲǤͲͲͳ

ƒ„Ž‡͹•Š‘™•–Š‡ˆ‘”–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ǡ‹…Ž—†‹‰‘‡…‘‘‹…Ȁ…—Ž–—”ƒŽ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•ˆ‘—†‹–Š‡

†ƒ–ƒ„ƒ•‡ǤŠ‡–ƒ„Ž‡•Š‘™•–Š‡–‘—”‹•”‡‰”‡••‹‘”‡•—Ž–•–Šƒ–‹†‹…ƒ–‡•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ…‡‹–‘—”‹•

ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ˆ‘”…‡”–ƒ‹…—Ž–—”ƒŽˆƒ…–‘”••—…Šƒ•Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡•ǡ…‘–‹‰—‹–›ǡƒ†…‘Ž‘›ǤŠ‹••‹‰‹ˆ‹‡•–Šƒ–Šƒ˜‹‰

–Š‡•ƒ‡‘ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽŽƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ǡ‹‘”‹–›Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ǡ–Š‡•ƒ‡„‘”†‡”™‹–ŠƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǡƒ†–Š‡•ƒ‡…‘Ž‘‹ƒŽ

–‹‡•ƒ”‡ƒŽŽ•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–ˆƒ…–‘”•‘ˆ–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•‹ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǤ Table 7. Tourism model with CEPII variables

(1) (2) (3)

TOURISM TOURISM TOURISM

‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘ ͲǤͲͶͶ͸ȗȗȗ ͲǤͲͶͺ͸ȗȗȗ ͲǤͲͷͳͲȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲͷͻʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͷ͸͵Ȍ ȋͲǤͲͲͶͻͲȌ

”‹‰‹ ͲǤͲ͸͵Ͷȗȗȗ ͲǤͲͷͺ͸ȗȗȗ ͲǤͲͷͷͻȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲʹ͹ͻȌ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͷ͸Ȍ ȋͲǤͲͲʹʹʹȌ

‹•–ƒ…‡ ǦͲǤͳͷ͸ȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳʹͺȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳͲͷȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲʹ͸ͻȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͷͲʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͲ͸ͳ͵Ȍ

ˆˆ‹…‹ƒŽƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ ͲǤͲ͸ͶͲȗȗȗ ͲǤͳͳ͹ȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͳͳͺȌ ȋͲǤͲͳͳ͹Ȍ

‹‘”‹–›ƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ ͲǤͲͷͷ͵ȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͲ͵ͶͲȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͳͲ͸Ȍ ȋͲǤͲͲͻͻͻȌ

‘–‹‰—‘—• ͲǤͳ͵Ͷȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͳ͵ͲȌ

‘Ž‘‹œ‡” ǦͲǤͲͳͷ͹

ȋͲǤͲͲͻͳͶȌ

‘Ž‘› ͲǤͳʹͷȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲͷͺͺȌ

‘•–ƒ– ͲǤͺͻͲȗȗȗ ͲǤ͸͸ʹȗȗȗ ͲǤͶ͸Ͷȗȗ

ȋͲǤͳͷͶȌ ȋͲǤͳͷͶȌ ȋͲǤͳͶ͹Ȍ

„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘• ͺͺͺ ͺͺͺ ͺͺͺ

ʹ ͲǤ͹ʹͷ ͲǤ͹Ͷͺ ͲǤ͹ͺͻ

‘–‡ǣ–ƒ†ƒ”†‡””‘”•‹’ƒ”‡–Š‡•‡•Ǣȗ’δͲǤͲͷǡȗȗ’δͲǤͲͳǡȗȗȗ’δͲǤͲͲͳ

ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒ̵•‰‘˜‡”ƒ…‡‹†‹…‡•ƒ”‡ƒŽ•‘•‘‡ˆƒ…–‘”•–‡•–‡†–‘•‡‡‹ˆ–Š‡›‹’ƒ…––‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•Ǥ Table 8 incorporates Malaysia’s governance index to tourism arrivals in the gravity model. The

‰‘˜‡”ƒ…‡‹†‹…‡••Š‘™‘•‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ…‡–‘–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•‹ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒǤ

͵͸ The application of the gravity model to the tourism industry of the Philippines and select neighboring countries

Table 8. Tourism model with Governance Index Variables

(1) (2)

TOURISM TOURISM

‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘ ͲǤͲͶͶ͸ȗȗȗ ͲǤͲͷͳͳȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲͷͻʹȌ ȋͲǤͲʹͶͳȌ

”‹‰‹ ͲǤͲ͸͵Ͷȗȗȗ ͲǤͲ͸ʹͲȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲʹ͹ͻȌ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͻʹȌ

‹•–ƒ…‡ ǦͲǤͳͷ͸ȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳͷ͹ȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲʹ͸ͻȌ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͺͳȌ

‘””—’–‹‘ ǦͲǤͲͶͲͻ

ȋͲǤͲʹͳʹȌ

—ƒ†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–‹†‡š ǦͲǤʹʹͶ

ȋͲǤ͵͹ͶȌ

‘•–ƒ– ͲǤͺͻͲȗȗȗ ͲǤͻͶ͵ȗ

ȋͲǤͳͷͶȌ ȋͲǤ͵͹ͲȌ

„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘• ͺͺͺ ͹͵ͺ

ʹ ͲǤ͹ʹͷ ͲǤ͹͵ͳ

‘–‡ǣ–ƒ†ƒ”†‡””‘”•‹’ƒ”‡–Š‡•‡•Ǣȗ’δͲǤͲͷǡȗȗ’δͲǤͲͳǡȗȗȗ’δͲǤͲͲͳ

–—‹–‹‘†‹…–ƒ–‡•–Šƒ––‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ƒ”‡ƒŽ•‘ƒˆˆ‡…–‡†„›ƒ…‘—–”›̵•‡ƒ•‡‘ˆ˜‹•ƒ’‘Ž‹…›ƒ†–Š‡

ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„‹Ž‹–› ‘ˆ †‹”‡…– ˆŽ‹‰Š–•Ǥ Š‡•‡ ƒ”‡ –‡•–‡† —•‹‰ –Š‡ …‘‡…–‹˜‹–› ƒ† ˜‹•ƒ ’‘Ž‹…› ˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡•Ǥ Š‡

…‘‡…–‹˜‹–›˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡‘Ž›…‘•‹†‡”•†‹”‡…–‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽˆŽ‹‰Š–•ˆ”‘‘”‹‰‹–‘ƒ›ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒƒ‹”’‘”–Ǥ

Š‡˜‹•ƒ’‘Ž‹…›˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡‹•ƒ˜‹•ƒǦˆ”‡‡’‘Ž‹…›–Šƒ–ƒ••—‡•–Š‡‡ƒ•‡‘ˆ‡–”›–‘ƒ›ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒƒ‹”’‘”–Ǥ As seen in Table 9, both connectivity and visa policy variables are highly significant to Malaysia’•

–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•Ǥ

Table 9. Tourism model with Connectivity and Visa Policy Variables

(1) (2)

TOURISM TOURISM

‡•–‹ƒ–‹‘ ͲǤͲͶͶ͸ȗȗȗ ͲǤͲͶͷ͵ȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲͷͻʹȌ ȋͲǤͲͲͷͺ͵Ȍ

”‹‰‹ ͲǤͲ͸͵Ͷȗȗȗ ͲǤͲ͸ʹͺȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲʹ͹ͻȌ ȋͲǤͲͲʹͺ͵Ȍ

‹•–ƒ…‡ ǦͲǤͳͷ͸ȗȗȗ ǦͲǤͳͶͶȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲʹ͸ͻȌ ȋͲǤͲͲ͵ͺͺȌ

‹”‡…– Ž‹‰Š–• ͲǤͲ͵ͷ͸ȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲͺͲͳȌ

ͲǤͲ͵ͺͷȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͲͲ͹ͶͶȌ

‘•–ƒ– ͲǤͺͻͲȗȗȗ ͲǤ͹͵͸ȗȗȗ

ȋͲǤͳͷͶȌ ȋͲǤͳͷʹȌ

„•‡”˜ƒ–‹‘• ͺͺͺ ͺͺͺ

ʹ ͲǤ͹ʹͷ ͲǤ͹͵ͷ

‘–‡ǣ–ƒ†ƒ”†‡””‘”•‹’ƒ”‡–Š‡•‡•Ǣȗ’δͲǤͲͷǡȗȗ’δͲǤͲͳǡȗȗȗ’δͲǤͲͲͳ

ƒ„Ž‡ͳͲ‹…Ž—†‡•–Š‡ʹͲͲ͵‘—–„”‡ƒƒ†–Š‡•‹ƒˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ…”‹•‹•˜ƒ”‹ƒ„Ž‡ˆ‘”ʹͲͲͺ–‘ʹͲͲͻ

ƒˆˆ‡…–‹‰ ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒ ƒ† ‘–Š‡” ’ƒ”–‡” ‡…‘‘‹‡•Ǥ Ž› –Š‡ •‹ƒ ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ …”‹•‹• ‹• •Š‘™ –‘ ƒˆˆ‡…–

–‘—”‹•ƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ǡƒ••‡‡‹ƒ„Ž‡ͳͲǤ’‘••‹„Ž‡”‡ƒ•‘…‘—Ž†„‡”‡Žƒ–‡†–‘–Š‡•–—†›…‘†—…–‡†„›

—”™‘ƒ”™ƒ–‘ ƒ† ƒƒ…Šƒ†”ƒ ȋʹͲͳͷǡ „•–”ƒ…–Ȍ ™Š‡”‡‹ ”‡•—Ž–• •Š‘™ –Šƒ– –Š‡ ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒ

–‘—”‹•™ƒ••‹‰‹ˆ‹…ƒ–Ž›ƒˆˆ‡…–‡†„›–Š‡ˆ‹ƒ…‹ƒŽ…”‹•‹•‡˜‹†‡…‡†„›–Š‡†‹’‹’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ…‡‘ˆ–Š‡

–‘—”‹••‡…–‘”‹–‡”•‘ˆ–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆƒ””‹˜ƒŽ•ƒ†Š‘–‡Ž‘……—’ƒ…›”ƒ–‡ˆ‘”–Š‡›‡ƒ”ʹͲͲͻǤŠ‹•

…‘—Ž†Šƒ˜‡„‡‡Žƒ”‰‡Ž›ƒˆˆ‡…–‡†„›–Š‡•–”‘‰”‡ƒŽ‡ˆˆ‡…–‹˜‡‡š…Šƒ‰‡”ƒ–‡™Š‹…Šƒ‡•’”‹…‡Ž‡••

competitive from a tourist’s perspective. Howev‡”ǡ–Š‡•–—†›ƒŽ•‘•—‰‰‡•–•–Šƒ––Š‡ƒŽƒ›•‹ƒ–‘—”‹•

‹†—•–”›Šƒ•”‡•‹Ž‹‡–Ž›”‡…‘˜‡”‡†„›ʹͲͳͲǤ