Economic Bulletin on Inflation
· In July, the general price level increased by 2.4%, year-on-year. This is more than half the inflation rate registered in the same month last year and 0.3 percentage point lower than the price uptick in June. Food items largely contributed to this decline, with the average rice price decreasing by nearly 2.9%. Non-food items rose by a modest 2.4% with major non-food items such as housing, utilities, and fuels contributing to the decline. Education rose by 4.3% in view of the opening of classes, reversing last year’s 3.9% decline.
· Month-on-month, the price level increased by 0.25% or 3% if annualized which is within the 2-4% inflation target range. If month-on-month price increase is at most 0.3-percentage point for the rest of the year, year-on-year inflation rate will continue its downtrend to low 1.2% before picking up to 1.7% in November (see Table 3).
Table 1Inflation and Contribution to Inflation by Commodity Group (%)
Year-on-Year (%) Contribution to Inflation (ppts) Month-on-Month (%)
Commodity Group Jul-18 Jun-19 Jul-19 Jul-18 Jun-19 Jul-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19
All items 5.67 2.65 2.39 5.67 2.66 2.41 0.17 0.08 0.25 Food & non-alcoholic beverages 7.03 2.70 1.94 2.80 1.08 0.78 0.24 0.08 0.16
Rice 5.00 (1.74) (2.87) 0.50 (0.17) (0.29) (0.58) (0.52) (0.59) Meat 5.80 3.30 3.52 0.38 0.21 0.23 0.32 0.72 1.12 Fish 11.38 3.77 3.84 0.69 0.24 0.24 (0.44) 0.15 0.15 Vegetables 16.04 9.47 3.42 0.47 0.29 0.11 3.79 0.53 (0.26) Non-alcoholic beverages 11.10 4.82 4.53 0.31 0.14 0.13 0.16 0.40 0.40 Alcoholic beverages & Tobacco 21.51 9.32 8.80 0.48 0.24 0.23 0.44 0.44 0.58
Page 2 of 3
Alcoholic Beverages 6.24 3.62 3.52 0.05 0.03 0.03 0.29 0.36 0.50 Tobacco 29.36 11.67 11.04 0.44 0.21 0.20 0.52 0.48 0.67 NON-FOOD 4.15 2.33 2.42 2.40 1.34 1.38 0.18 - 0.26 Clothing and footwear 2.44 2.39 2.56 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.17 0.17 0.50 Housing, Utilities & Fuels 5.60 2.99 2.25 1.17 0.62 0.47 (0.09) (0.09) 0.18 Housing Rent 3.05 2.97 3.48 0.39 0.38 0.44 0.09 0.26 0.93 Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels 11.54 2.63 (0.19) 0.72 0.17 (0.01) (0.28) (0.75) (1.14) Furnishings, household eqt 3.28 3.11 2.92 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.17 0.08 0.42 Health 3.73 3.73 3.17 0.15 0.14 0.12 (0.08) 0.34 0.67 Transport 7.88 1.62 0.66 0.56 0.12 0.05 0.75 (1.48) (0.28)
Oprtn of Personal Transport 25.06 (2.88) (1.90) 0.44 (0.06) (0.04) 0.89 (4.68) 0.20 Transport Services 2.27 3.74 1.85 0.10 0.17 0.08 0.63 (0.18) (0.54) Communication 0.50 0.30 0.30 0.01 0.01 0.01 - - 0.10 Recreation and Culture 0.90 3.22 3.21 0.01 0.04 0.04 0.17 0.26 0.26 Education (3.92) (4.50) 4.25 (0.14) (0.16) 0.14 - 3.03 1.09 Restaurants & Misc. Services 3.75 3.27 3.35 0.46 0.40 0.41 0.17 0.26 0.43
Core 4.52 3.30 3.20
Source of Basic Data: PSA
Table 2Prices of Selected Commodities
Jul-18 Jun-19 Jul-19
Meralco rate per kWH for 200KW/mo consumption 10.19 10.09 9.99 Meralco Generation Charge per kWH 5.27 5.42 5.42 Meralco Transmission Charge per kWH 0.78 0.73 0.65
Diesel (PHP/litre), NCR 46.62 43.90 44.39
Gasoline, RON 95 (PHP/litre), NCR 57.53 54.97 56.18
Sources of basic data: Meralco, DOE
Page 3 of 3
Table 3YOY Inflation by MOM Price Change Scenario (%)
MOM Year-On-Year
Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 0.5 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.5 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.9 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.2 0.4 1.9 1.4 1.5 2.1 3.1 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.8 4.9 0.3 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.7 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 0.2 1.7 1.0 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.4 0.1 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.0 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 -
-oOo-
