Ap dung ngiTdng an toan tai chinh doi ngoai
cua Viet Nam
ThS. TRAN VI^T HA Hpc vi^n Tai chinh
An toan tai chinh la m$t ydu cdu cua phat tri^n ben vifng trong thlfi ky h$i nh$p idnh t^ qud'c td'. Bai vi^t tid'p cdn tuT gdc dd bao dam an toan tai chmh d^i ngo^i cua qu^c gia, theo tidu chi dtf trtf ngo^i hd'i d^ xac dinh cac chi s&vi tr^ng thai an toan vk nguy ctf mSJl an toan tai chinh dd'i ngo^i cua Vi$t Nam.
CHI S6 xAc DINH Ngi/CfNG AN TOAN TAI CHfNH DOI NGOAI
Tii cMnh dd'i ngo^i li mOt bO phin cd bin ciia etfa tii chfnh qudc gia, gdm tdng hdp toin bO tidm Itfc tii chfnh phuc vu cho thanh toin qud'c td cia qudc gia ttong mdt thdi k^ nhdt dinh. Hoat ddng tai chinh ddi ngoai dtfdc thd hi$n dtfdi hinh thtfe eic T i i khoin quan hd kinh te vdi ntfdc ngoii (ROW) ttong Hd thdng tii khoin qudc gia (SNA) v i cic tii khoin thanh toin qud'c td' ttong Bing Cin cin thanh toin (BOP) etfa ntfdc dd.
Theo Quy Tidn td Qudc td (IMF), tinh hinh tii chfnh ddi ngoai cia m$t ntfde trong mdi thdi ky nhdt dinh, dtfdc phin inh bing cic chi tidu tdng hdp quan ttpng nhdt, gdm:
Dtf trtf ngoai hdi; Nd ntfdc ngoii; Cin ein vang lai; Cin ein vdn v i tii chfnh; Cin cin thanh toan tdng thd.
Dd dinh gia, xic dinh ttang tiiii tii chfnb ddi ngoai etfa mdt ntfdc ttong thdi gian nhdt dinh, vdi tidu ehi dtf ttff ngo^i hdi, WTO v i eic td chtfc t i i chinh - tidn t^ qudc te, nhtf: IMF. WB... v i cic chuydn gia Idnh td thtfdng xic dinh cie chi so:
(1) T^ li giUa quy md d^ trU ngoai hdi (bieu th} Id X) vdi nhu cdu ngo(ii t$ cho nhdp khdu hang hoa (tinh theo gid FOB) cua qudc gia trong thdi gian kitiep (bieu thi Id I), goi Id chisd^. CM sd X_ tiitfdng
/ /
dtfdc stf dung dd dinh gii ttfdng quan giffa mtfe dtf trtf ngoai hdi binh quin nim cfla mOt ntfdc d nam trtfdc so vdi nhu eau nhap khiu cua nam kd tidp. Mtfc dtf trff ngoai hdi cln dam b i o dtf dd phue vu 3 thing nh$p kh^u tiong thdi gian ke tiep tid Idn dtfdc coi l i "nguydn tie ving cua IMF".
(2) Ty li giita quy md du trU ngoai hdi (X) vdi nhu cdu ngogi te chi trd thanh todn vang lai ciia qudc gia trong thdi gian ketiip (y), goi Id ehi sd £ . Chi sd niy
y thtfdng dtfdc stf dung dd dinh gii ttfdng quan giffa mtfc dtf trff ngoai hdi binh quin nim cila mdt ntfdc d nim trtfdc so vdi nhu elu ngoai td chi tck cho tdng gii tri giao dich ving lai trong nam kd tidp. Khi mtfc gitf trtf ngoai hdi binh quan nam lui cing gan ve 0 thi tinh hinh tai chinh ddi ngoai ngay cang xdu, va ngtfdc lai.
(3) Ty li giSa quy md du trit ngoai hdi (X) so vdi tdng sdn phdm qudc ndi (GDP) trong mdt thdi gian nhdt dinh, thudng la 1 ndm, goi Id ehi sd x . Ttfdng ttf nhtf
GDP
ehi sd i!, ehi sd _x_ cang tidn xa 0 tiii tinh hinh tii y GDP
chinh ddi ngoai ngay cang dtfdc cfing cd vflng eh^e, v i ngtfdc lai, kM chi sd JL. tidn ddn gin 0 tiii tinh hinh tai
GDP
chinh ddi ngoai ngay cing xi'u di... Kinh nghidm cic trtfdng hdp tham vi'n thanh cong cija Uy ban BOP v i IMF, till Itfdng dtf trS ngoai hd'i so vdi GDP d mtfc
<10% titi cd thd dtfdc coi l i gidi ban (ngtfdng) giffa ttang thii an toin va ttang thii nguy ed mit an toin tii chfnh ddi ngoai eua qudc gia, ndu tidp tuc giim va <5%
tiii ndn kinh tddtfhg trtfdc bd vtfc ciia khtfng hoing tidn t$ v i tai chinh ddi ngoai.
EconoiDy andForecasI Review
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iHlEN CCla - TRAO DOi
THUC TRANG 6 VIET NAM THEO TIEU CHI D l / TRLf NGOAI H 6 | Trong giai doan 2000 - 2012, chi cd nam 2007 va 2008, mtfc dtf tiTj" ngoai hdi d ttong gidi ban an toan con lai tdt ca cac nam ddu d ttang tiiai b i o dpng ddn vang, khdng dam bao mtfc an toan tiieo "nguyen tac vang"
cua IMF. Die bidt nam 2010, mtfc dtf trff ngoai hdi chi dap tfng dtfdc nhu cau nhap khiu cfia 1,8 thing kd' tiw.
- Mac dii cM sd _^_ ttong tiidi ky 2000 - 2012 deu GDP
vtfdt ngtfdng 10% va cd xu htfdng tie'n tridn xa gd'c 0%, phin inh tinh Mnh dtf trtf dang dtfdc cii iMen, nhulig hiu het cac nam ttong thdi ky nay mtfe dtf trtf ngoai hd'i cua ntfdc ta ddu khdng bao dam dtfdc "nguydn tac ving" eua IMF. Nguyen nhSn ehu ydu c^a tinh ttang nay la do md hinh ting trtfdng kinh td'ntfdc ta ttong thdi gian qua chtf ydu dtfa vao xuat khau, ma xua't khiu lai dtfa nhidu vio nhip khiu nguydn vat lidu, thid't bi, may mdc... Tfnh binh quan nam, tdc dp tang trtfdng xuat khiu hing hda tiong thdi ky 2001 - 2012 nhanh hdn gap 2,13 lln tdc dd tang trtfdng GDP ttong cung thdi ky. Dieu dd khdng cM gdp phan thtfc day tang quy md BANG: CAC CHI SO TCTCtNG QUAN GlflA MtTC Qil T R Q HGOM HOI V(3l GDP VA HHU CAU MHAP KHAU, THANH TOAN QUOC
TE CUA NAM KE TIEP C O A VIET NAM THCJl KY 2000 - 2012
\Chi tidu
>ISiA
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (dilMo)
^tii so gtfSng
&0 dong en vang
DiJtrll ng09i lid'i nlia nifdc binli quSn nam (tri^u USD) 3.030 3.387 3.692 5.619 6 314 8 557 11.491 20.964 23.022 14 148 15.356 19.200 24 400 30 800
TJ 1§ mtfc dtf tri! ngoai liSi/
n l i u c l u nli^p ldi£u liang lioa cua nam i.e tif p (X/I).
Dtfn vi %', \k quy tiiang nli^p
Idi^u.
20,8 (2,5 thang) 19,0 (2,3 thiing) 16,2 (1,9 thdng) 19,5 (2,3 thang) 18,0 (2,2 thang) 20,0 (2,4 thang) 19,5 (2,3 thang) 27,9 (3,3 thing) 35,0 (4,2 thang) 17,6 (2,1 thang) 15,2 (1,8 thing) 17,8 (2,1 thang) 19,5 (2,3 thing) 21,8 (2,6 thing)
X
<25%
/
T y i g d r i t r i i ngoai liiii so viJi GDP (%)
X GDP
10,1 10,4 10,5 14,1 13,9 16,2 18,9 29,5 25,7 15,5 15,1 17,8 21,6 25,9
X
<10%
GDP
MiJc d§ dap tfng cua dtf trtf ngoai \iii\ cho nhu cSu tiianh toan viing iai nam k^ tiS^p T^ng chi
thanh toan vang iai (tri$u USD)
18.738 22.362 27.716 34.590 40.927 49.807 69.106 86.841 75.510 91.470 113.580 122.640 135 000
TJIS
Z!(%)
y 18 16 20 18 20 23 30 26 19 17 17 20 23
X
<i6%
y
NsiidiirTinh Ki.iii ciia t.k'j-ia tiriigudn s^ lieu trong iii/dc (NHNN.
Ti'iiig Liii.' Thong ke, B^Tai chinh) va so liSu cua IMF
GDP, ma cdn gdp phan cai tMen vi tang dtf trff ngoai hdi etfa ntfdc ta (tinh ehung ciia ttidi k>^ 2001-2012 tang tttfdng xudt khiu dat binh quan 18,85%>/ nam).
- Chi so' mtfe dtf trff ngoai hdi so vdi nhu ciu chi thanh toin vang lai etfa nim kdtid'p {^) eua phin Idn cac nam ttong
Y
tiidi k j 2000 - 2012 tiiy da xic I3p xu htfdng xa dan gdc 0%, nhiftig ehtfa dn dinh. Nam 2007 dat 30%>, nhuHg sau do d i quay dau giam manh xud'ng 17% vao nam 2010. Didu dd cho thdy khi nang dtf trff tai chinh eho tb§m hut cin cin dianh toan vang lai khi mong manh. Khi nang dap tfng tdng dtf trff ngoai hdi cdn rdt han chd, thidu tinh dn dinh v i ehtfa tao lip dtfdc mtfc dtf trff dtf Idn de dam bao vChig chac nhu elu ehi thanh toin ving lai cua ndn kinh td' nhffng nam kd tidp.
Nhtf viy, nhin tdng quit thdi ky 2000 - 2012, cac eh! sd phan inh ttfdng quan giffa quy md tdng dtf trtf ngoai hd'i vdi GDP vi vdi nhu ciu bio dam khi nang cM tta thanh toin vang lai nam ke tidp thtfdng gin sit hoac dtfdi ngtfdng gidi ban an toin, ngoai Mx( nam 2007 vi 2008.
MOT SO GIAI PHAP
De dim b i o an toin tai chinh ddi ngoai cua Viet Nam dd'i vdi tidu chi dtf trff ngoai hdi, tic gia xin dtfdc dd xuat mdt sd'giii phip sau:
Mdt Id, diiu chinh cdc cdn ddi kinh ti VI md de giam thiiu rdi ro vd ndng cao khd ndng thich ibig cda nen kinh tivdi cdc bii'n ddng ciia tinh hinh tdi chinh qudc te.
Trong md hinh can ddi tdng eung - tong elu eua ndn kinh te' ntfde ta thdi gian qua vin cdn cd nhOtig bit hc^ Ij^, tidm In nguy ed mat can bang tai chMi ddi ngoai. Phin tdng eau etfa nen kinh te, tieu diing tiong ntfde v i diu ttf cMdm ty tipng qui cao, dac bidt l i tidu dung eua Chinh phtf ehidm ty ttong 1 ^ ttong cd edu diu ttf, ttong khi M$u qua dau hi rdt tiidp (hd sd ICOR khu vut diu ttf cdng dang ngiy cing tang).
Dd giai quyd't td't mdi quan he giffa tidt kidm, dau ttf vdi tidu dung ttong ntfdc qua kdnh thtfdng mai qudc td' can xiy ditiig mdt Id trinh dd xic lip t^ Id hdp l;y etfa ba yeu td niy so vdi GDP dd dat dtfdc ddng thdi ba muc tieu: ting trtfdng GDP hdp ly, tang tiifdng xudt khiu ben vtfng vi giim nhu cau nb^p khiu cua ndn kinbtd.
Hai Id, xdy dung vd sut dicing cdc chi
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tieu do ludng vd ddnh gid su Idnh manh cua khu vijtc tdi chinh, dam bdo phdn dnh duac cdc vdn de vudng mac c&a khu vuc tdi chinh de ngdn eh^n cdc "Id hdng"
trong qudn l-y, gidm sdt.
Cd chd gidm sit cac boat ddng vay ngan han etfa cie dinh che tii chinh ttong ntfde se ttd nen kem hidu qua ndu cd nhieu "l5 hdng", nhdt l i nhffng van dd thudc bio Mem cdng khai hoac "bao Mdm nglm" etfa Chinh phij^ nhiftig nam ngoii tam giim sit. Vi vay, Uy ban Giim sit Tii chfnh Qudc gia cln xiy dtfng dtfdc mdt bd ehi tidu hay edng cu do Itfdng stf lanh manh etfa khu vtfc tai cMnb mdt cich Mdu qui.
Ba Id, ndng cao ndng luc thdng ki, du bdo ludng vdn nudc ngoai vd edng khai hda cdc sd liiu thdng ki vi tinh hinh tdi chinh ddi ngogi cua qudc gia.
, Hidn nay cdng tic tiidng kd, dtf b i o tinh hinh tii chinh ddi ngoai ei5a qudc gia dtfdc tiitfc hidn tiieo Nghi dinh 164/1999/
ND-CP cua Chinh phtf vd quin ly can can thanh toin qudc te eua Viet Nam, eic quy dinh t^i Phip Idnh Ngoai hdi nSm 2005 vk Thdng ttf lidn tich sd 05/2007/TTLT- NHNN-BKH&DT-BTC-BTM ciia Ngin hing Nhi ntfdc, Bd Kd hoach vi Diu ttf, Bd Tii chinh, Bd Cdng thtfdng. Trdn tiitfc te, ttf tiling 10/2012, Ngin hing Nhi ntfde da thtfc Men cdng bdedng khai cM tidt ve trang thii cin ein thanh toin qudc td. Tuy nMen, vide cdng khai hda sd' Udu thdng ke ehi tid't vd cie ddng ngoai td, cac ddng vdn vio - ra eia ndn kinh td cung nhtf tinh hinh nd qudc gia, nd Chinh phtf, nd edng, dtf trff qudc td cdn chim va chtfa ed cic quy dinh phip IJ rd ring, minh bach. Vi viy, trong thdi gian tdi CMnh phii can tridn khai vi$e hoin tMdn eic quy dinh phip ly vd cdng lie thdng kd, dtf bio vi cdng khai hda sd' lieu thd'ng ke nhi ntfde vd hd thdng tien td, can can thanh toin, nd qud'c gia, ty gii hd'i doii...
Bdn Id, ndng cao chdt lUOng quan tri qudc gia ciia Chinh pha ddi vdi khu vuc tdi chinh, thanh todn qudc ti nham bdo ddm an todn tdi chinh ddi ngogi.
Dd lim dtfdc dieu niy cln:
- Tridn khai thtfe Mdn cie dd i n ngMdn etfu edp Nhi ntfdc vd dinh gii cha't Itfdng quin tri qud'c gia etfa Chinh phi ddi vdi Hnh vtfc tii cMnh - tidn td vi thanh toin qudc td.
- Ning eao chdt Itfdng vi Men qua phdi hdp gitfa cac cd quan cua Chinh phu trong didu tidt stf phit tridn khu vtfc tii cMnh, hoaeh dinh chinh sich tidn te, phdng chdng cie rui ro vi nguy ed mdt an toin tii chinh ddi ngoai.
- Nang cao nang Itfe giii quyd't mdi quan hd giffa doe lip, ttf chtf vi hdi nhip qud'c td ttong ITnh vtfc tii chinh- tidn td, thanh toin qudc td.
Ndm Id, xdy dung vd vdn hdnh ca chicdnh bdo sdm cdc riii ro vd nguy camdt an todn tdi chinh ddi ngoai qudc giaph^c viJi cdng tdc qudn /jp, diiu hdnh kinh tivimd.
Thdi gian vtfa qua, Ngin hing Nhi ntfdc da ban hinh mdt sdquy dinh vd vdn dd phdng ttinh rui ro, bao dim an toin vi ning cao ning Itfc quin tri riii ro t^i cic ngin hing ttong ntfdc. Tuy nhidn, d edp dd quin IJ vT md, Ngin hing Nha ntfdc chtfa hinh thinh cd chd cinh bio sdm cic rii ro v i nguy cd mat an toin hay khung hoing etfa toin bd thdng ngin hing. Dd nang cao nang Itfc quin tri qudc gia ddi vdi liiib vtfc tii cMnb - tidn td ndi chung, quan hd tii chinh dd'i ngoai ndi ridng, tiong thdi gian tdi, Chinh phtf cln xiy dtfng vi vin hinh hieu qui cd chd canh bio sdm cie nii ro va nguy ed mat an toin tii cMnh dd'i ngoai qudc gia.Q
TAT T.IF.IT THAM KHAO
1. BO Cdng Thtfdng (2009). Bdo cdo thdm h^t thuang mai cua WTO, Dtf i n hd ttd tiitfdng mai da Men EU-Vidt Nam MUTRAP III, H i Npi
2. Ngin hing Nhi ntfde Vidt Nam (2007). Tudo hda tdi chinh, xu thivd gidi phdp chinh sdch, Nxb van hda - Thdng tin, H i Ndi
3. Ngin hing Nhi ntfdc Vidt Nam (2008). Dieu hdnh chinh sdch tiin t^ trong qud trinh tytdo hda tdi khodn vdn d Viet Nam. Nxb Vin hda - Thdng tin. H i Ndi
4. Vd Tri Thinh v i Le Xuin Sang (2013). An ninh Tdi chinh Vi$tNam trong bdi canh Trung Qud'c qudc tihda dong NDTvd bdt dn tdi chinh todn cdu, K^ ydu Hdi thio khoa hoc qudc gia Kinh te Vidt Nam 2012 - 2013
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