36 3Ca i)?i t)?f tf)Uc ngljietn xahpihpcs63(ii5),2oii
MOT SO V A N D E X A HOI CO B A N T R O N G P H A T TRIEN
BEN VIJKG HO GIA DINH VUNG TAY BAC NU'6C TA HIEN NAY
VU TUAN HUY'
Dat van de
Biln ddi kinh tl - xa hdi d nude ta trong bii canh toan cau hda thap ky qua da tac ddng va dan din sir chuyin dii cua cac thilt chi xa hdi trong dd cd gia dinh. Co cdu gia dinh thu nhd nhu la kit qua tac ddng ciia ylu td nhan khdu hpc nhu miic sinh va di cu, su thich ling cua gia dinh vdi nhiing biln dii trong dinh hudng gia tri, ldi sdng (Nguyen Thanh Liem, 2006). Vl cac chirc nang ciia gia dinh, cd sir da dang trong ddng thai cua su chuyin doi. Vdi viec chuyin sang kinh tl thi trudng, cd nhieu tac ddng chinh sach den chiic nang kinh tl cua hd gia dinh (Vii Tudn Anh, Nguyen Xuan Mai, 2007). Ty le nam gidi va nir gidi trong dp tudi lao ddng tham gia lire lugng lao ddng cd xu hudng gia tang, dac biet la lao ddng nii (Asia Development Bank, 2002). Dilu nay keo theo nhirng biln dii nhdt dinh trong phan cdng lao ddng gia dinh (J. Knodel, Ruk, Vu Manh Lgi, Vii Tuan Huy, 2005).
Phat trien ben virng khdng chi la sir bien ddi cua kinh te - xa hdi, ma each tiep can nay dat ra mdt khung tham chieu xem xet mdi quan he lan nhau giiia cac yeu td kinh te, xa hdi, van hda, mdi tmdng ciia timg thiet che xa hdi trong dd cd gia dinh. Theo ly thuyet phat trien, d mdi chu ky, gia dinh cd nhung nhu cau rieng va viec thuc hien nhirng chiic nang cua gia dinh de dap iing nhung nhu cau nay la can thilt de budc vao chu ky phat trien tiep theo.
Phat trien ben viing gia dinh la sir phat trien dam bao sir tang tmdng ve kinh te, dam bao phiic lgi va an sinh xa hdi cua cac thanh vien hd gia dinh vdi nhirng dac diem cu the ve CO cau, ngudn lire, mdi tmdng. Neu nhu d cap dp viing hoac qudc gia, tang trudng kinh te la dieu kien de phat trien ben virng, thi d cdp dp hd gia dinh, dilu kien kinh te nhu viec lam va thu nhap la nhirng yeu t l can thilt cho su phat triln bin viing ciia hd gia dinh.
Miic sdng nhu mdt chi bao xa hdi phan anh cac chilu canh da dang trong dieu kien sdng cua hd gia dinh, ngudn lire, co hdi va nii ro trong qua trinh thuc hien cac chiic nang cua gia dinh. De phat trien ben vung hd gia dinh, cac chiic nang co ban cua gia dinh nhu san xuat, tieu dung, sinh de, cham sdc dugc thuc hien nhdm thda man khdng nhirng cac nhu cau hien tai ciia thanh vien trong gia dinh, ma cdn dam bao su phat trien tiem nang cua cac thanh vien cua gia dinh trong tuong lai. Phan tich nhirng yeu td anh hudng din su bien ddi miic sdng cua hp gia dinh se giiip cho viec xac dinh cac vdn de xa hdi co ban trong phat trien ben viing hd gia dinh.
PGS. TS, Viin Nghiin cuu phdt trien bin vUng viing Bdc bd.
Ju Tudn Huy 37
Bai viet nay dua tren kit qua nghien ciiu cua dl tai "Nhung vdn dl xa hdi co ban trong phat triln bin vung vimg Tay Bdc giai doan 2011-2015" thuc hien tir 2006-2008.
Tim hieu nhiing vdn dl xa hpi anh hudng din phat triln bin viing hd gia dinh la di tim nhimg van de nay sinh trong qua trinh thuc hien cac chiic nang va su biln ddi cua gia dinh. Qua sd lieu thing ke co ban vl dilu kien kinh tl - xa hdi d vimg Tay Bdc, ciing nhu nhiing dac trung cua mSu nghien ciiu, hd gia dinh la mdt don vi san xudt co ban. San xudt van la chiic nang quan trpng cua hd gia dinh. Nang cao nang lire san xudt, thu nhap cua hd gia dinh la dieu kien co ban va quan trpng nhdt dl nang cao miic sing.
FhuoTig phap do ludng va phan tich
Trong nghien ciiu nay, chiing tdi su dung si lieu vl danh gia miic sdng va thay ddi miic sdng ciia hd gia dinh tir nam 2002 din thdi dilm nghien ciiu (2007) dl do ludng miic dp phat trien ben vung ciia hd gia dinh.
Thang do danh gia miic sing dugc ehia thanh 5 loai: 1. Ddi; 2. Ngheo; 3. Tmng binh; 4. Kha; va 5. Giau. Danh gia vl thay dii miic sing dugc chia thanh 5 miic: 1. Kha hon nhilu; 2. Kha hon mdt chiit; 3.Khdng thay dii; 4. Kem hon mdt chiit; va 5. Kem hon nhieu. Tir nhiing dii lieu nay, chiing tdi xay dung mdt biln sd nhdm do ludng sir biln ddi ciia hd gia dinh ve miic sdng dua tren danh gia cua ngudi tra ldi dai dien cho hp gia dinh va xem dd nhu mdt chi bao danh gia sir phat trien ben viing ve kinh te cua hd gia dinh.
Trong nghien ciin nay, neu miic sdng ciia hd gia dinh so vdi nam 2002 tang len (hoac giam di) thi dii hien tai la hd thudc loai kha, giau hoac ngheo ddi thi dugc phan loai thudc hd gia dinh phat triln bin virng (hoac phat trien khdng bin viing). Tuy nhien, cd su phan biet ddi vdi nhirng hd gia dinh khdng cd thay ddi ve miic song so vdi nam 2002. Neu d thdi dilm nghien ciiu, nhiihg hd kha va giau nam 2002 vin dugc danh gia la kha va giau thi cd thi xem la nhiing hd gia dinh phat triln bin vung. Trai lai, ddi vdi nhiing hd ddi ngheo hien tai, so vdi 5 nam trudc khdng thay ddi thi dugc phan loai la phat trien khdng bin vung. Tir cac biln sd nay, chiing tdi su dung phuang phap phan tich da bien de tim hilu nhirng ylu td tac ddng din su phat triln bin viing cua hd gia dinh. Dat eac yeu td nay trong khung canh nhiing mue tieu phat triln bin viing trong giai doan tdi, bao cao se xac dinh cac vdn de xa hdi dat ra cho phat triln bin vung hd gia dinh d viing Tay Bac.
Biin so phu thupc ma chiing tdi quan tam la miic dp phat triln bin viing vl kinh tl cua hd gia dinh so vdi 5 nam trudc thdi dilm nghien ciru. Tir y kiln danh gia ciia ngudi tra ldi vl miic sdng cua hd gia dinh vao thdi dilm nghien ciiu va so sanh vdi 5 nam tmdc, biln sd phat triln bin vung kinh tl hd gia dinh dugc xay dung vdi 2 gia tri: 0="Khdng bin vimg" va l="Bln viing"
Tren co sd tdng quan cac kit qua nghien ciiu va quan dilm ly thuylt, chiing tdi lira chpn eac ylu td tilm nang tac ddng cd y nghTa din phat triln bin viing hd gia dinh ya dua ra cac biln sd ddc lap se dugc phan tich trong md hinh. Cac ylu t l xa hdi nay cd the so bd phan loai nhu sau :
Dilu kien ciia hd gia dinh: hpc vdn cua ngudi vg, nghi nghiep, lao ddng, ddt dai, ky nang, vin, tich luy.
38 Mdt so vdn di xd hdi ca bdn trong phdt triin bin virng..
Nhiing ylu to rui ro: dm dau, te nan xa hdi.
- Ddu tu: hpc hanh ciia con cai, tim viec lam ngoai thanh phd.
Vin xa hdi: Tham gia cac cupc hpp, sir trg giiip cua hp hang, cpng ddng, va cac tl chiic xa hdi.
Dua tren cac nhdm phan loai nay, chiing tdi da xay dimg cac biln sd dua vao phan tich dl tim hilu cac ylu t l tac ddng din sir phat triln bin virng cua hp gia dinh:
1. Hpc van ciia ngudi vg la cac gia tri lien tuc chi ra het ldp may.
2. Ngudi ddng gdp thu nhap chu ylu trong hd gia dinh: l=Chdng la chii ylu, 2=Va la chu ylu, 3=Ngudi khae (con, bd me).
3. Dac dilm dan tpc cua ngudi tra ldi dugc ma hda lai va chia thanh 4 bien sd: Dan tpc Kinh (0=Dan tpc khac, l=Dan tpc Kinh); Dan tpc Thai (0=Dan tpc khac,
l=Dan tde Thai); Dan tpc HMdng (0=Dan tde khac, l=Dan tpc HMong); Dan tpc Khmii (0=Dan tpc khac, l=Dan tde Khmii). Trong md hinh nay, dan tpc Thai la bien sd tham khao.
4. Nghi nghiep cua ngudi tra ldi la gdm 4 biln so: ndng dan (0=nghe khac, l=Ndng dan); cdng nhan (0=nghl khac, l=Cdng nhan); budn ban nhd (0=nghl khac, 1= Budn ban nhd); va cdng chiic (0=nghl khac, l=Cdng chiic). Ndng dan la bien sd tham khao.
5. Danh gia ciia ngudi tra ldi ve anh hudng ciia yeu tp vdri ddi vdi tang thu nhap ciia hd gia dinh la bien sd lien tuc vdi 3 gia tri: l=Han che, 2=Binh thudng, 3=Thuan lgi.
6. Danh gia cua ngudi tra ldi ve anh hudng ciia yeu td sd hiiu dat dai cua hp gia dinh ddi vdi viec tang thu nhap cua hd gia dinh: l=Han che, 2=Binh thudng, 3=Thuan lgi.
7. Chi sd miic sdng ciia hd gia dinh dugc xay dung dua tren dieu kien sdng ciia hp gia dinh nhu: dieu kien nha d, ve sinh, nudc sach, cac dd diing tien nghi trong sinh hoat dugc tinh theo phuong phap phan tich thanh phdn va chi sd gdm 5 miic (5 quintile). C) miic cang cao thi cac dilu kien sdng ciia hd gia dinh nhu nha d, ve sinh, cang tdt.
8. Sd con trong hd gia dinh (ke ca sd con da chuyin di khdi hp gia dinh).
9. Miic chi tieu ciia hd gia dinh cho viec an udng, dien, chdt ddt, di?n thoai.
10. Cd cac thanh vien trong hd gia dinh udng rugu hay khdng: 0=Khdng, l=Cd.
11. Sd ngudi dm cua hd gia dinh trong nam qua.
12. Cd y dinh cho con cai di tim viec lam d thanh phd: 0=Khdng, l=Cd.
13. Miic dp tham gia cac cupc hpp cdng ddng: 1= Khdng tham gia, 2= Thinh thoang, 3= Thudng xuyen.
va Tudn Huy 39
14. Cd dua vao hp hang khi cdn su giiip dd: 0= Khdng, 1= Cd.
15. Danh gia ciia ngudi tra ldi vl chdt lupng dich vu y tl d dia phuang so vdi 2002:
l=Kem,hon, 2=Nhu cu, 3=Kha hon.
16. Chi sd te nan xa hdi d cpng ddng dugc tinh dua tren danh gia ciia ngudi dan vl tinh trang nghieri mgu, cd bac, nghien hut, mai dam, HIV/AIDS, trdm cdp, tham nhung, tranh chdp ddt dai va xu hudng cua cac te nan xa hdi nay so vdi nam 2002 theo phuong phap phan tich thanh phdn. Chi sd gIm 5 miic (5 quintile), d miic cang cao thi cac te nan xa hdi cang nhilu va cd xu hudng tang so vdi 2002.
17. Khoang each tii nha d din dudng d td.
Tren co sd cac biln sd nay, cac md hinh dugc xay dung nhdm tim hilu anh hudng cua cac ylu t l ngudn luc, cac ylu t l co hdi va nii ro, vin xa hdi va cac ylu t l cdng ding den thay ddi miic sdng cua hd gia dinh.
Cac yeu to anh huong din phat triln ben virng ho gia dinh I. Anh hirdng cua cdc yeu to nguon luc
Ket qua phan tich hdi quy trong md hinh I cho thay cac bien sd "dieu kien sdng cua hd gia dinh" va danh gia vl "kha nang vin", "dien tich ddt ciia hd gia dinh", va "nghi nghiep" la nhiing yeu td anh hudng cd y nghTa din cam nhan vl sir tang len cua miic sing so vdi 5 nam trudc. Vdi gi^ tri hdng sd va he sd Beta ciia cac biln sd vin, ddt dai, chi si dieu kien sdng cua hd gia dinh trong md hinh nay la duong, cd thi kit luan rdng vin va dat dai la yeu td quan trpng ddi vdi tang trudng miic sing. Anh hudng ciia dilu kien sing hd gia dinh den tang trudng miic sing ciing rat cd y nghTa, mac dii gia tri tuyet dii nhd hon so vdi yeu td vdn va dat dai.
Ben canh nhimg bien sd cd y nghTa, dieu dang quan tam tir ket qua phan tich md hinh nay la nhiing bien sd dugc khang dinh trong nhieu nghien ciiu khac lai khdng dugc khang dinh trong nghien ciiu nay. Dd la viec nang cao trinh dp hpc van, dac biet ddi vdi phu nir nhu la mdt yeu td quan trpng de nang cao miic sdng. Ket qua phan tich cho thay, mac dil he sd Beta ciia biln sd nay la duong, dieu do cd nghTa la vdi hpc van cua ngudi vg cd tang len thi se cd anh hudng tdt den phat trien ben viing cua hd gia dinh. Tuy nhien, gia tri cua he so Beta cua biln sd rdt nhd (0,043) va khdng cd y nghTa thdng ke.
Trong CO cdu nghi nghiep hien tai d dia ban nghien ciiu, miic dp phat trien ben viing cua cac hd gia dinh cdng nhan, cdng chiic va budn ban nhd deu kem hon so vdi nghi ndng. He sd Beta cua cac biln sd nay diu la am va dac biet dii vdi hd gia dinh cdng nhan, suy giam mirc sdng la cd y nghTa.
Tuong tu, ddi vdi biln sd ai la ngudi ddng gdp thu nhap chinh cho hd gia dinh, khi ngudi vg hoac ngudi khac la ngudi ddng gdp chii ylu thi gia tri ciia he si Beta cung la am (-0,40). Dilu dd cung cd nghTa la khi ngudi chong khdng phai la ngudi ddng gdp chu ylu thi kha nang tang tmdng miic sing ciia hd gia dinh se giam. Mac du kit luan nit ra tir md hinh cung khdng dugc khdng dinh vi biln so nay khdng cd y nghTa thing ke, cau hdi dat ra la cdn cd nhung cai thien gi trong tinh trang viec lam dl nang cao vai trd phu nir trong
40 Mdt so vdn di xd hdi ca bdn trong phdt trien ben vung...
viee ddng gdp thu nhap cua hd gia dinh vi binh ddng gidi la yeu td tac ddng tich cue cho sir phat trien ben virng ciia hd gia dinh
Phan tich dac dilm dan tpc cua cac hd gia dinh trong md hinh ciing la bien sd dang quan tam. He sd Beta cua cac biln sd dan tpc Kinh, H'mong, va dan tpc khac deu mang gia tri am. Dilu dd cd nghTa la so vdi nhiing hd gia dinh thudc dan tpc Thai, tinh phat triln bin viing ciia hd gia dinh cua cac dan tpc khac, dac biet la dan tpc H'mong trong dia ban nghien ciru la kem hon.
Sd con hien cd ciing la biln sd quan tam trong phan tich hd gia dinh. He sd Beta cua bien sd nay mang gia tri am cd nghTa la cang nhieu con thi hd gia dinh se phat trien kem ben viing hon. Tuy nhien, biln so nay khdng cd y nghTa thdng ke.
Tdm lai trong md hinh nay, cac bien sd phan anh dac diem kinh te cua hd gia dinh nhu vdn, dien tich dat, nghe nghiep la nhirng bien sd cd y nghTa tac ddng den phat trien ben vung cua hd gia dinh. Trong khi dd, xu hudng tac ddng cua cac bien sd khac nhu hpc van cua ngudi vg, ngudi ddng gdp thu nhap chinh va sd con phii hgp vdi ket qua da dugc khang djnh ve mat ly thuyet nhung khdng cd y nghTa thdng ke trong md hinh nay. Day la nhirng thdng tin dang luu y de phan tich lam rd nhirng van de xa hdi co ban trong phat trien ben viing cua hd gia dinh.
2. Cacyiu to cff hpi vd rid ro ddi v&i suphat trien
Trong md hinh II, chiing tdi dua them vao cac bien sd nhu miie chi tieu, ldi sdng, cac yeu td riii ro ciing nhu co hdi cho sir phat trien ben virng miic sdng ciia hd gia dinh nhu sd ngudi dm trong nam, cd y dinh cho con di tim viec lam d thanh phd. Md hinh nay nham phan tich cac yeu td co hdi cQng nhu nii ro tac ddng nhu thi nao din sir phat trien ben viing ciia hd gia dinh.
Trong md hinh nay, hau nhu cac biln sd bd sung them diu khdng cd y nghTa thing ke. Tuy nhien, trong sd nhiing ylu td tilm nang lam giam kha nang phat triln bin vung ciia hd gia dinh, dieu dang luu y la sd ngudi dm trong nam vdi he sd Beta cua biln si nay la am vdi miic y nghTa la 0,56. Dii vdi hd gia dinh dan tpc Hmong, miic dp phat triln bin viing cd xu hudng giam khi gia tri tuyet doi cua he sd Beta va miic y nghTa da tang len khi so sanh vdi md hinh I (xem Bang 1).
Miic chi tieu la biln so tac ddng cd tinh hai chilu din sir phat triln bin virng cua hp gia dinh. Sir tang len cua miic sdng ciing cd nghTa la sir da dang va tang len ciia nhirng nhu cau ciia cac thanh vien hd gia dinh. Chi tieu d day khdng chi la sir chi diing ma con mang y nghTa ddu tu. Vi vay, miic chi tieu cua hd gia dinh dugc can nhde dk vira dam bao thda man nhirng nhu cdu da dang cua hd gia dinh, mat khac la cd kha nang tich luy dimd rdng san xuat. Trong phan tich nay, chiing tdi chi tinh toan nhirng chi tieu co ban nhu chi cho an uing, dien, chdt ddt, dien thoai. Mac du khdng thi khdng dinh trong md hinh nay, miic dp sii dyng mgu, bia cua thanh vien hd gia dinh tang len ciing tilm nang giam kha nang phat trien bin viing ciia hd gia dinh.
Sd ngudi dm trong nam la ylu td riii ro cd y nghTa trong viec giam miic sdng ciia hp gia dinh. Anh hudng cua ylu td nay la sir tac ddng 'kep' theo hai chilu ddi vdi thu nhap
va Tudn Huy 41
va phiic lgi cua hd gia dinh. Khi hd gia dinh cd ngudi dm vira giam ngudn luc lao ddng tao ra thu nhap, mat khac, viec tang chi tieu cho viec kham chiia benh se lam giam ngudn luc de md rdng dau tu la yeu td can thiet tac ddng den kha nang phat trien bin viing ciia hd gia dinh. Kit qua phan tich cho thdy vdi he sd Beta la -0,059 va miic y nghTa la 0,06, sd ngudi dm cd tac ddng dang ke den giam mirc sdng cua hd gia dinh.
Bang 1. Mo hinh h6i quy cdc biln so nguon luc, co' hdi va rui ro, v6n x3 hpi va cpng dong din phat triln bin vung kinh tl hp gia dinh
Cac bien so dpc lap (Hang s6)
Hpc van cOa nguai vg Ai dong gop thu nhap chinh Dan tpc Kinh
Dan t6c Hmong Dan t6c Khmu Cong nhan Buon ban nho Cong chirc V6n Ddt dai
Dilu icien s6ng cua hp GD S6 con hien co
Chi CO ban
Mure dp u6ng ruau, bia S6 nguai 6m trong nam Cho con tim viec a TP Muc dp tham gia cac cu6c hpp Dira vao hp hang
Chat lupng djch vu y t l Chi s6 phdt triln cpng ddng Khoang cdeh nha a din du6ng oto
Mo hinh I Beta
0,317**
0,042 -0,043 -0,074 -0,157 -0,012 -0,224 *
-0,089 -0,113 0,107***
0,101 ***
0,066 ***
-0,011
t 2,983
1,329 -1,368 -1,035 -1,619 -0,210 -2,144 -0,866 -1,424 3,464 3,474 3,629 -0,795
Mo hinh II Beta
0,291 **
0,039 -0,031 -0,062 -0,187(1)
-0,001 -0,228 *
-0,121 -0,119 0,101 ***
0,112***
0,051 **
-0,010 ,000 -0,057 -0,059 (2)
0,054
t 2,675
1,217 -0,963 -0,849 -1,919 -0,021 -2,187 -1,157 -1,501 3,240 3,815 2,674 -0,733
1,517 -1,210 -1,888 1,284
Mo hinh III Beta
-0,085 0,029 -0,032 -0,030 -0,194 *
-0,006 -0,226 *
-0,108 -0,130 0,104 ***
0,111***
0,045 **
-0,015 0,000 -0,061 -0,047 0,043 0,018 -0,016 0,180***
-0,014 -0,045
t -0,384
0,916 -0,972 -0,411 -1,947 -0,097 -2,155 -1,048 -1,636 3,320 3,744 2,348 -1,126
1,240 -1,286 -1,521 1,025
,516 -0,303
4,702 -0,943 -0,311
Chil thich : Tiidng ke t vdi gid tri cdng xa gid tri tuyet doi ciia 2 thi biin sd edng quan trgng ddi vdi md hinh.
* Miecy nghia 0.05;** Miecy nghia 0,01; ***Miecy nghTa 0,001 1. Miec y nghia Id 0,056; 2. Miec y nghia la 0,060
42 Mgt sd vdn de xd hdi ca bdn trong phdt trien bin vimg...
Tim hieu anh hudng ciia thay ddi viec lam, cd y dinh cho con tim viec lam d thanh phd la ylu td anh hudng den tang miic sdng cua hd gia dinh, tuy nhien, gia thuyet khong dugc khang dinh trong md hinh nay.
So sanh vdi md hinh I, ngoai bien sd dan tpc da neu d tren, dieu dang ndi la kha nang phat triln kem ben viing ciia hd gia dinh xu hudng tang len. Trong ca cau nghi nghiep, miic sdng ciia hd gia dinh cdng nhan, budn ban nhd, cdng chiic giam so vdi hp gia dinh ndng dan. Dac biet, ddi vdi hd gia dinh cdng nhan, miic giam nay la van cd y nghTa.
Trong sd cac ylu td tang kha nang phat trien ben virng ciia hd gia dinh, anh hudng cua vdn, dilu kien sdng da giam xudng trong khi anh hudng ciia yeu td dat dai tang len. Day la nhiing xu hudng dang quan tam se dugc di sau phan tich toan bd cac yeu td tac ddng.
Phan tich md hinh nay cho thay anh hudng cua cac yeu td nii ro tac ddng manh hon so vdi nhiing yeu td thuan lgi md ra co hdi cho su phat trien kinh te ciia hd gia dinh. Khi nhimg yeu td ngudn luc suy giam se lam tram trpng hon nhiing van de lien quan den tinh cau tnic.
So sanh giiia hai md hinh cho thay tac ddng ciia nhiing yeu td nhu nghe nghiep, dac diem dan tpc ciing lam cho kha nang phat trien kinh te ciia hd gia dinh ngay cang giam. Mat khac, anh hudng ciia cac yeu td ngudn luc cd xu hudng thu hep edn cac yeu td nii ro cd xu hudng tang len la nhiing van de xa hdi dat ra trong qua trinh phat trien ben vimg ddi vdi hd gia dinh. Do la van de chuyen ddi co cau kinh te, md hinh chi tieu, nhiing van de cham sdc siic khde.
3. Vdn xd hpi vd cdc yeu to cpng dong
Nham danh gia anh hudng cua cac ylu td vdn xa hdi din sir phat triln bin vung hp gia dinh, md hinh III dua vao phan tich cac bien sd nhu miic dp tham gia cac cupc hpp cua cpng ddng; hp hang nhu mpt mang ludi xa hdi dugc xac dinh la mdt ngudn luc co thi trg giiip khi gia dinh can den su giiip dd; chdt lugng dich vy y tl; chi sd miic dp te nan xa hdi trong cdng ddng va cudi cimg la dac diem co sd ha tdng ciia cdng ddng dugc do bdng khoang each tir nha d den dudng d td.
Trong cac yeu td nay, nang cao chdt lupng dich vu y tl cdng ddng la ylu tl duy nhat tac ddng tich cue va cd y nghTa. He sd Beta ed gia tri duong va ldn nhdt so vdi cac bien sd khac. Dieu dac biet la khi dua bien sd nay vao md hinh, hdng sd cua mo hinh mang gia tri am, ngugc lai so vdi hai md hinh tmdc. Anh hudng cila biln sd "sd ngudi Im trong nam" da giam ca vl gia tri tuyet ddi va miic y nghTa. Kit qua tir md hinh nay cho thay vai trd quan trpng ciia cae yeu td vdn xa hdi va co sd ha tdng ciia cpng ddng.
Mac dil cac bien sd khac khdng cd y nghTa thing ke, xu hudng tac ddng cua cac bien sd nay din phat triln bin vung ciia hd gia dinh cho phep dua ra nhimg nhan djnh sau day: miic dp tham gia cac cupc hpp cdng ddng tang len se lam tang kha nang phat triln ben virng ciia hd gia dinh, va trong xu hudng hien dai hda, mang ludi quan he hp hang se suy giam. Tinh tich cue xa hdi, nang cao trach nhiem cdng dan qua chi bao tham gia cac cupc hpp cdng ddng la mdt trong nhiing ylu td tilm nang lam tang miic sdng ciia hp gia dinh. Khoang each tir nha d din dudng d td cang xa cd xu hudng giam kha nang phat trien kinh tl cua hp gia dinh. Mat khac, su tang len ciia te nan xa hdi se la ylu to anh hudng tieu cue din su phat triln cua hd gia dinh.
va Tudn Huy 43
So sanh vdi md hinh II, tac ddng tich cue ciia cac ylu td vdn, ddt dai, dilu kien sdng cua hd gia dinh vin cd y nghTa, tuy nhien, ylu td vdn va dilu kien sdng cua hd gia dinh nhin chung trong xu hudng suy giam, cdn tac ddng ciia ylu td ddt dai vin tang len dii vdi su phat trien ben viing cua hd gia dinh. Danh gia tdng thi cac ylu td cdu tnic nhu nghi nghiep, dan tpc; cac ylu td ngudn lire nhu hpc vdn, sd con; cac ylu td vdn xa hdi nhu tinh tich cue cdng ddng, mang ludi hp hang, chdt lugng dich vu y tl, v...v cho thdy kha nang phat trien ben viing ylu cua hd gia dinh trong dia ban nghien ciiu.
Thao luan va kit luan
Phantich thuc trang thay ddi mirc sdng hd gia dinh qua kit qua phan tich sd lieu dieu tra mlu cho thdy phat triln bin vung hd gia dinh trong nhiing nam qua vin d mdt '"nguong" phat triln thdp. Hon 40% sd hd trong mlu dilu tra la hd ngheo, trong dd 15,2% d Son La; 54,3% d Dien Bien; va 53,1% d Lai Chau (xem Bang 2). Theo ehudn ngheo ciia Ngan hang Thi gidi cung nhu theo ehudn ngheo mdi ciia Viet Nam, hd ngheo cd miic thu nhap binh quan ddu ngudi dudi 200.000 d/thang d ndng thdn va 260.000/thang d dd thi (Quylt djnh sd 170/2005/QD-TTg cua Thii tudng Chinh phu ngay 8 thang 7 nam 2005), "tinh chung cd nuac hien cie 5 nguai ddn thi cd I ngudi ngheo; a cdc viing Ddng Bdc, Bdc Trung Bd, Tdy Nguyen cie 3 ngudi ddn thi cd 1 ngudi ngheo;
rieng a Tdy Bdc Bo. cie 2 ngudi ddn cd 1 ngudi ngheo". (Website Vietbao.com, 23/5/06).
Trong dieu kien san xudt chii ylu la ndng nghiep, dua vao thien nhien cd nhilu td nii ro, kha nang tai ngheo eua nhdm thu nhap binh quan ddu ngudi d miic dudi 500.000 d/thang la kha cao. Tir thuc trang dilm xudt phat thdp hay 'nguong' phat triln thdp cua kinli te hd gia dinh cua mlu nghien ciiu, mdt trong nhirng vdn dk xa hdi cdn dat ra d viing Tay Bac la can phai nhan manh den phat triln kinh tl, trong dd cd kinh tl hd gia dinh. Do miic sdng thap va ty le ngheo ddi cao, phat triln kinh tl cdn gdn vdi nang cao miic sing va xda ddi giam ngheo. Trong vdn dl xda ddi giam ngheo, cdn chii y din nhiing hd gia dinh ciia ngudi dan tpc d vimg sau nhu dan tpc H'mong, Kh'mii.
Bang 2. Phan loai thu nh^p binh quan ddu ngu-6i theo tinh (%)
Thu nhap binh quan dau ngu-6i/thang Ngheo
Cdn ngheo 500-700 700-999 1000 tra len Tdng s6
Tinh Son La
15,2%
37,0%
10,1%
17,4%
20,3%
100,0%
Dien Bien 54,3%
32,5%
9,3%
2,0%
2,0%
100,0%
Lai Chau 53,1%
21,2%
9,7%
6,2%
9,7%
100,0%
T6ng so 40,5%
30,8%
9,7%
8,5%
10,4%
100,0%
Nguon: So li?u diiu tra chgn mdu - "nhitng vdn di xd hgi co bdn phdt trien bin vieng viing Tdy Bdc din 2015"
44 Mdt so vdn de xd hdi ca bdn trong phdt trien ben viing..
Trong nhung yeu td tac ddng tich cue den nang cao mirc song ciia hd gia dinh da phan tich d tren, chiing ta thay cd cae yeu td ddt dai, vdn, dieu kien sdng cua hd gia dinh.
Dilu nay cd nghTa la khi dien tich dat dai, von va dieu kien sdng cua hd gia dinh tang len thi miic sdng ciia hd gia dinh se tang len. Tuy nhien, xem xet anh hudng cua cac yeu tl nay trong xu hudng cdng nghiep hda va dd thi hda chung d nudc ta, ciing nhu tac dpng lan nhau cua cac yeu td ngudn lire ciia hd gia dinh, chiing ta thay rang cd yeu td trong chilu hudng suy giam hon la tang len, hoac cd nhiing yeu td tang len se lam giam nguIn luc ciia hp gia dinh, nhdt la trong dieu kien nguong phat trien thap nhu hien nay cua hp gia dinh d vimg Tay Bac.
Tmdc het xem xet anh hudng cua yeu td dat dai. Trong nhiing nam qua, vdi viec phat triln co sd ha tang nhu dudng giao thdng, dd thi hda, va dac biet xay dyng nha may thuy dien Son La, dat rirng va dat canh tac bi thu hep. Trong cac diem ciia mau nghien ciiu, xa Phdng Lai (Son La), phudng Noongbua, xa Nay Lua, Nam Can (Dien Bien), thi trdn Phong Thd (Lai Chau) la nhiing diem tiep nhan tai dinh cu. Tai nhiing diem nghien ciiu nay, khdng chi nhiing hd gia dinh gdc d cac xa nay giam dien tich dat canh tac, ma dii vdi nhiing hd gia dinh tai dinh cu, dien tich dat canh tac ciing giam so vdi tmdc khi di chuyen. Tham chi, mdt sd hd da chuyen den noi d mdi nhung den nay viec cap dat canh tac van chua lam xong.
Rudng ddt it, chi cd tdng cudng cham sdc, cdi tien gidng mdi de tdng ndng sudt O ddy chi cd chdn trdu ldm rudng. Ddt trdng lua Id thieu, mdi nhdn khdu chi cd 200m2, chia tie ndm 2000, ldm the ndo dephdt huy tiem ndng cua ngiedi ddn thi rdt khd.
Hdu nhu ngiedi lao dpng cd siec khoe di ldm thue het. d bdn chi con ngudi gid. Con trai cd site thi di keo xe, con gdi di gdnh cdt. Binh qudn ngdy lao dong cao nhdt 50 nghin.
Bdn chi cd ho trung binh, nhieu hd ngheo. Cd hp ldm trgi cd thi ndi hon mgt chut.
Bdn ndy sdn sdn nhu nhau het. Ai ciing deo cdt deo sdi thi sdn sdn nhu nhau hit. Chdn nudi cd khong cd vdn, ao khdng rdng nen cGng chi de dn, chua cd di bdn d thi trudng.
Chiing toi mong mudn sdp nhdp vdo thi xd thi dieu kien song phdi nhu ddn thi xa.
Phdng van nhdm nam tinh Dien Bien Thuc trang ciia sd hiiu ddt dai cua hd gia dinh hien nay dat ra vdn dl lam thi nao de nang cao ngudn luc ve ddt dai ciia hd gia dinh ddi hdi cdn phai tao ra su chuyin dich ca cau kinh te, tao dilu kien cho sir tich luy nang cao kha nang tap tmng ddt dai sd hiiu cua hp gia dinh. Dieu dd cd nghia la mdt bd phan lao ddng hoac hd gia dinh se chuyin sang lam nhiing nghe khac nhu dich vy gdn lien vdi thi tmdng hon la gdn liln vdi san xudt ndng nghiep.
Thuc te ngudi dan ciing nhan thiic dugc nlu nhu chi sdng bdng ndng nghiep thi khd co thi l^m giau. Tuy nhien, viec thay ddi nghi nghiep chi dat ra ddi vdi the he con cai va dilu do lien quan din kha nang ddu tu ciia hd gia dinh. Mdt sd xa, ban da sap nhap vao dd thj nhung san xuat va ldi sdng ngudi dan vin chu ylu la lam mdng, lam thue, chua cd su thay dii.
Van de chuyen ddi co cdu kinh tl, dac biet trong khu vuc dd thi dat ra van dl xac dinh mo hinh dd thi hda phu hgp cho cac tinh thudc vimg mii cao nhu viing Tay Bdc.
va Tudn Huy 45
Lien quan den yeu td vdn, neu tinh kha nang dau tu de md rdng san xudt tir ngudn thu nhap cua hd gia dinh sau khi trir di sd chi tieu, kit qua tinh toan cho thdy hon 60% sd hd gia dinh d vung Tay Bdc khdng cd tich liiy. Va nlu si chenh lech nay d mpt miic dp nao dd mdi cd the tich liiy de ddu tu md rdng san xudt cua hd gia dinh thi ty le nay con cao hon nira. Ket qua nay cho thay mdt ty le ldn hd gia dinh d viing nay khdng cd kha nang dau tu de phat trien san xudt neu chi dua vao thu nhap tir cac ngudn ciia hd gia dinh, dac biet la d cac tinh Dien Bien va Lai Chau (Xem bang 3).
Bang 3. Phan loai hp gia dinh co tfch luy theo tinh (%) Hp gia dinh
CO tich luy Khong
Co
T6ng s6
Tinh Son La
50,0%
50,0%
100,0%
Dien Bien 64,2%
35,8%
100,0%
Lai Chau 74,3%
25,7%
100,0%
Tong s6 62,2%
37,8%
100,0%
Nguon: So lieu dieu tra chgn mdu - "nhung vdn de xd hpi co bdn phdt trien ben vimg viing Tdy Bdc din 2015.
Viec md rdng kha nang tilp can ngudn vdn cho cac hd gia dinh theo hudng chuyen dii CO cdu nghi nghiep la ylu t l quan trpng dl xda ddi giam ngheo ddng thdi la dieu kien de phat trien ben virng hd gia dinh.
"Khong CO quy ndo di giup chdn nudi Vay tiin ra ngdn hdng chinh sdeh vd ngdn hdng nong nghiep. tdi da 20 trieu phdi thi chdp nhd, trdu bd, tdi sdn. Cdc hd trong bdn hdu hit vay vdn d ngdn hdng chinh sach theo td nhdm vi Ngdn hdng ndng nghiep ldi sudt cao "
Phdng vdn nhdm nam tinh Dien Bien Ben canh nhiing ylu td ngudn luc nhu ddt dai, vin, dac dilm san xudt cua hd gia dinh chua gdn vdi thj trudng, uu thi vl si lao ddng khdng cdn la mdt thi manh. Nhu kit qua cho thdy, sd con ddng la ylu td giam kha nang phat triln bin viing ciia hd gia dinh.
vdn dk xa hdi dat ra la cdn phai giam si sinh, tang cudng cdng tac kl hoach hda gia dinh va cac chuang trinh cham sdc siic khde.
Ty le bd hgc cao, dac biet trong cac hd gia dinh ngudi dan tpc H'mong, Kh'mii cung se la ylu td co ban anh hudng din chdt lugng ngudn nhan luc cua hd gia dinh khi con cai budc vao dp tudi lao ddng va dilu dd lam giam hon niia kha nang phat trien ben virng cua hd gia dinh trong giai doan tdi. Nang cao hpc vdn ciia phy nu: dat ra van de phai giam ty le bd hpc cua tre em gai va do dd, nang cao kha nang ndm bdt co hdi, tham gia cua phy nu trong kinh tl gia dinh khdng chi la vdn dl trong phat triln ngudn nhan luc ma cdn la vdn dk binh ddng gidi cdn dat ra trong phat triln bin vung hd gia dinh. Phat trien ngudn nhan luc, binh ddng gidi la nhirng ylu to quan trpng dl phat triln bin virng hd gia
46 Mpt sd vdn de xd hpi ca bdn trong phdt trien ben vieng...
dinh thdng qua vdn dl phat trien giao due khdng chi ddi hdi thay ddi nhan thirc va kha nang ddu tu cua ngudi dan, ma dieu quan trpng hon la nhung chuyen ddi trong cau tnic xa hdi, tao ra nhirng dilu kien co sd ha tang ve giao due thuan lgi hon cho ngudi dan.
Ciing vdi viec ddu tu cho giao dye, van de cham sdc siic khde cung la ylu tl co y nghia trong viec nang cao kha nang phat triln bin viing ciia hd gia dinh d viing Tay Bdc.
Lien quan din cham sdc siic khde, hanh vi tieu diing trong gia dinh, dac biet la udng mpu bia cd xu hudng tang len la yeu td lam giam kha nang phat trien ben virng ciia hd gia dinh.
vdn dl nay cdn mdt khia canh khac la binh dang gidi trong tieu dimg cua hd gia dinh vi uIng rugu bia phdn ldn la nam gidi. Viec giao due va kiem soat cua gia dinh, cpng ddng dii vdi nhiing hanh vi sir dyng ma tiiy khdng chi lam tang chi sd phat trien cdng ddng, ma con lam giam cd y nghTa ylu td cd hai den sir phat trien ben viing cua hd gia dinh.
Phan tich tac ddng ddng thdi cua cac yeu td nay cho thay anh hudng cua cac yeu tl nii ro tac ddng manh han so vdi nhiing ylu td thuan lgi md ra co hdi cho su phat trien kinh tl ciia hd gia dinh. Khi nhiing yeu td ngudn luc suy giam se lam tram trpng hon nhiing van de lien quan den tinh cau tnic.
Danh gia tdng the cac yeu td cau tnic nhu nghe nghiep, dan tpc; cac yeu td ngudn lire nhu hpc van, sd con; cac yeu td vdn xa hdi nhu tinh tich cyc cdng ddng, mang ludi hp hang, chat lugng dich vy y te, v.v... cho thay kha nang phat trien ben viing yeu cua hd gia dinh trong dia ban nghien ciiu. Trong dieu kien ciia khiing hoang kinh te va nhiing tac ddng ciia no hien nay ddi vdi nudc ta ndi chung va vimg Tay Bac ndi rieng, so vdi nguong phat trien ben vung, miic dp phat trien kinh te hd gia dinh hien nay d vimg Tay Bac dat ra mdt trong nhung van de xa hdi co ban nhat la nang cao thu nhap, xda ddi giam ngheo ddi vdi hd gia dinh.
Hudng tdi myc tieu phat trien ben vung ciia viing Tay Bac va dat dugc cdng nghiep hoa va hien dai hda vao nam 2020, ben canh van de xda ddi giam ngheo la nhiing van de xa hpi khac nhu kha nang tiep nhan co hdi cua hp gia dinh dugc tao ra do chuyen doi co cau kinh te, thay ddi md hinh chi tieu, giam miic sinh, nang cao trinh dp hpc van, cham sdc siic khde va binh dang gidi la nhiing van de xa hdi dat ra ddi vdi phat trien ben virng hd gia dinh trong giai doan tdi.
Tai lieu trich dan
Asia Development Bank. 2002. Women in Vietnam. Manila: Regional and Sustainable Development Department and Mekong Department, Asian Development Bank.
J. Knodel, R. Jayakody, V. M. Loi, V.T. Huy. 2004. Gender roles in the family: change and stability in Vietnam. Asian Population Studies, 1(1), 69-92.
Nguyen Thanh Liem. 2006. Di dan, phat triln va bdt binh ddng d Viet Nam tren dudng ddi mdi va hdi nhap. Tgp chiXd hpi hoc. 3-2006.
Vu Tudn Anh, Nguyen Xuan Mai. 2007. Nhirng biln ddi kinh tl - xa hdi ciia hd gia dinh.
Nha xudt ban Khoa hpc xa hdi. Ha Ndi.
