CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 05-2009 33
BRAZIL - DIEM SANG O MY LATINH
^H
ien nay d khu vQc My Latinh (MLT) cd 3 nQdc - Argentina, Brazil va Mexico - deu mudn dQdc chpn lam dai dien khu vQc de bau lam iiy vien thQdng triic Hpi ddng Bio an md rpng (dii kien) ciia Lien hiep qudc sau khi td chQc qudc te ldn nha't hanh tinh nay dQdc cii td, ddi mdi cd ciu bp may boat dpng ciia minh. Xet ve nhieu mat - dien tich, ddn so', tiem liic kinh te, uy tin chinh tri tren trQdng qud'c te, thi Brazil deu ndi trdi hdn hai nQdc kia.Ve dien tich vd dan so, Brazil deu ldn hdn Argentina v i Mexico. Neu dien tich ctia Mexico la 1,9725 trieu k m \ ciia Argentina - 2,8 trieu km'^
thi ctia Brazil la 8,512 trieu km^ Ve dan so', nam 2003 Argentina cd 38,4 trieu ngUdi, Mexico l i 102,3 trieu ngUdi, thi Brazil l i 176,6 trieu ngUdi, v i nam 2007 dan sd Brazil la 189,3 trieu ngUdi.
Ve tiem iQc kinh te, nam 2003 - Argentina dQdc xep hang thQ 22, Mexico - thQ 12, thi Brazil xep thQ 9 the gidi; nam 2007 - Brazil xep hang thQ 10 trong nhdm 10 nQdc cd nen kinh te hang d i u the gidi, bd xa Argentina va Mexico. Nam 2008, Brazil dQdc IMF coi la mpt trong 12 nen kinh te tang trQdng dQdng v i cung la mpt trong 4 phao cQu nguy cho nen kinh te the gidi khdng lun s i u vio suy thoii. Ba nen kinh te khdc la Trung Qudc, An Dp va Nga. GDP nam 2007 cua Trung Qudc tang 11,9%, nam 2008 tang 9,7%; tQdng tii ctia An Dp la 9,8%
N g u y e n Hong Sdn Vien Nghien cvCu Chdu My
v i 8,0%; Cila Nga la 8,1% v i 7,7%; cdn cua Brazil Id 5,4% va 4,9%.
Kinh te Brazil nam 2008 tang cham nhQ vay, thiic te, la dieu khd t r i n h khdi, vi gid day kinh te Brazil da hdi nhap khu vtic, nha't la hpi nhap kinh te toan ciu ngay mpt sau rpng hdn, dd vay khdng the khdng chiu anh hudng xau ciia khung hoang thi trUdng tai chinh va suy thdii kinh te toin ciu. Nhan to' mang lai nhieu t i c dpng tieu ciic cho nen kinh te Brazil, lam GDP nam 2008 ctia Brazil tang tha'p hdn nam 2007, trQdc bet phii ndi den mpt so' cdng ty xuyen qud'c gia ciia nUdc nay. Cic cdng ty nay mang lai nhieu thu nhap ve cho td qud'c, nhUng trong nam 2008 vi kinh te the gidi suy thoii, hang h o i lam ra khd tieu thu, cdc cdng ty nay cung rdi vao thdi diem khd khan, anh hudng xau den phat trien san xuat, tang trQdng kinh te'cua Brazil.
Dd la cic cdng ty khai md Vale do Rio Doce, cdng ty thtic pham Sadia, cdng ty san xua't cic mat h i n g dien tti Weg v i cdng ty s i n xuat thep Gerdau v.v... Dac biet phai ndi tdi hai tap doan hang d i u Brazil l i Petrobras (ra ddi nam 1953) va tap doan che tao may bay phan liic dan dung t i m trung Embraer. Trong thdi gian qua, nhd gii dau md the gidi t i n g (da cd thdi diem len tdi 171 USD/thung) v i san pham ciia Petrebras tieu thu manh, gdp phan l i m cho cd phieu ctia cdng ty n i y len gia d cic thi trUdng chQng khoin, cho phep Petrobras van
34 SO 05-2009 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
dupe xep vdo hang ngu 100 cdng ty cd vd'n tQ b i n h o i h i n g dau the gidi nam 2007. Cdn tap doan Embraer v i n giQ dQdc danh hieu tap doan ndi tieng thQ ba the gidi sau Boeing ctia My va Airbus ctia EU.
Tiem Itic kinh te ngiy cing manh cho phep Brazil ddnh 4,4 ty USD nam 2006 trd giup cac nQdc Nam ban ciu trong viec cai tao, nang cap va xay dung mdi dQdng giao thdng, san bay, ben cing de thuan ldi chd giad iQu hang hda ndi bp mdi qud'c gia vd giQa eac qud'c gia, nham thuc diy kinh te khu viic p h i t trien, (trong khi chii nghia tti do mdi, dang pha hoai nen kinh te' v i doan ket npi bd khu vUc Tay Nam b i n ciu).
Nudc nhan dQdc tai trd nhieu nhat ctia Brazil la Venezuela (khoang 1,15 ty USD); rdi den Peru - 700 trieu USD; Argentina - 760 trieu USD;
Ecuador - 430 trieu USD; Bolivia, Chile va Paraguay - mdi nUdc 100 trieu USD. Ngin h i n g Qud'c gia Brazil (BNDES) cho biet, ngan hang dii kien d i n h 2,8 ty USD de d i u tu dii ban cho cac nUdc khu vQc niy.
Ve mat ngoai giao, Brazil ed truyen thd'ng tdn trpng, bao ve Hie'n chUdng Lien hiep qud'e, cho'ng lai nhQng the liic coi thQdng, vi pham nhQng nguyen tac cd b i n ctia Luat p h i p qud'c te ve quyen con ngUdi, chti quyen qud'c gia v i toin ven lanh thd, binh ding, khdng can thiep vio cdng viec npi bp ciia nhau.
Lich sti chdng cUdng quyen, bao ngQdc the gidi trong nen van minh hau cdng nghiep mai mai ghi nhan nhQng bdnh dpng tich ciic ctia Brazil tren trQdng qud'c te cho'ng lai NATO trong dpng t h i i can thiep vao cdng viec npi bd ctia Kosovo t h i n g 3/1999, lam chet hang ngan ngUdi Serbia vd tpi. Nam 2003, Brazil bupc tpi My
xam iQdc Iraq - dat nQdc cd chii quyen, cd nen van minh lau ddi tQ trQdc khi nQdc My ra ddi, va phan doi Hpi ddng Bao an Lien hiep qud'c dd lam ngd, khdng trQng phat hanh dpng xam lUdc nUdc nay cua My, cdi diy l i h i n h dpng cd the gay tien le xa'u cho nhQng cupc xam iQdc tQdng tii ddi vdi nhQng nQdc khong chiu sQ ap dat ciia cac the liic cQdng quyen.
Hien nay Brazil la mpt trong nhieu nQdc tham gia tich cQc vao cac cdng Qdc quo'c te ve quyen con ngQdi, ve cam phd bien vu khi hat nhan v i cae loai vu khi giet ngQdi hang loat khac, ve giai trQ quan hi, ban ehe s i n xuat cac loai vu khi thdng thQdng va cdng Qdc cho'ng khiing bd' de tao dQng va Cling cd niem tin ldn nhau giQa cic qudc gia, cung tdn tai va p h i t trien.
Trong thap nien 90 vQa qua, de cin bang sQc manh kinh te, ngan ngQa My ngay cang lien minh sau vdi cac the iQc bio thti than My d Tay Nam b i n ciu, Brazil dung MERCOSUR l i m chd diia hdi thuc cic nQdc trong khu vQc phat trien manh quan he kinh te - thQdng mai, van h o i - xa hpi vdi EU. Hien nay cic nQdc EU la ddi tac thQdng mai da phQdng vdi cic nQdc Tay Nam ban c i u (tuy nhien.
My v i n la ddi t i c song phQdng vdi mpt so'nQdc khu vQc ndy).
Nam 1995 tai Madrid, MERCOSUR va EU da thoa t h u i n thanh lap lien minh kinh te xuyen quo'c gia dau tien giQa hai bd Dai Tay dQdng, nhQng do cac nQdc EU khong tQ bd trd cap h i n g ndng s i n xua't khiu, lam cho cic ndng s i n cung loai ciia MERCOSUR khdng cd kha nang canh tranh eong bdng, binh dang vdi cic mat h i n g ctia EU, cho nen de'n nay, thoa thuan nay v i n chUa thanh hien thtic.
Nam 1995, Brazil dQdc ket nap vie WTO, it lau sau dQdc ket nap vao
CHAU MY NGAY NAY SO 05-2009 35
n h d m G20. N h d m n a y dQpc t h a n h lap n a m 1999, gdm 7 nQde cdng nghiep p h d t trien, EU va 12 n e n k i n h te mdi ndi: A r g e n t i n a , An Dp, A r a b Saudi, Brazil, H d n Qud'c, Indonesia, Mexico, Nga, N a m Phi, A u s t r a l i a , T r u n g Qud'c va Thd N h i Ky - chiem 2/3 d a n sd t h e gidi, 90% G D P vd 80% gm tri thQPng mai toan cau.
G20 la dien d a n hpp tac va t r a o ddi cac v a n de ciia h e thd'ng tdi chinh qud'c te, n h d m c u n g n h a u tim kiem cac g i i i p h a p de giai quyet cac van de vUpt qua k h a n a n g va n h i e m vu ciia c i c td ehQc ddn le.
Cudi t h a p nien 90 ctia t h e ky XX, Brazil diia vdo M E R C O S U R l i m ddn bay thie't lap q u a n he ddi tdc thQdng mai vdi eac nQdc A S E A N vd vdi cpng ddng c i c qud'c gia dpe lap (SNG).
D i u t h e ky XXI, da so' nQde N a m Tay b a n c i u da tQ bd chti n g h i a til do mdi vi nd da l a m cho n e n k i n h te ctia cac qud'c gia n a y n g i y cang hi le thupe v i o nQdc ngoai, c h e n h lech t h u n h a p giau ngheo ngay cang ldn, vi dti, n a m 2003 - c h e n h lech t h u n h a p giQa 10%
dan s o ' g i i u nha't vd 10%o d a n so'ngheo n h i t P Brazil l i 93,4 l i n , d H o n d u r a s - la 88,8 l i n , d P a r a g u a y - 72,7 l i n , d Venezuela - 60,5 lan v i t h a p n h i t la d Cuba - 5,4 lan. Day l i cd sd khdng kem p h a n q u a n t r p n g de gidi l a n h dao k h u vQc N a m Tay b a n c i u c u n g ed cac mdi q u a n he ehinh t r i - k i n h te eiia minh, l i m phong t r i o c a n h t i xua't hien ngdy cang n h i e u d cac qudc gia k h u vUc, b a t d i u tQ Venezuela.
Phong t r a o n i y da giup l a n h t u cac nUdc N a m Tay b a n c i u tU duy lai md binh lien m i n h k i n h te - ehinh tri, td ehQc lai va ddi mdi md h i n h nay theo hQdng cac nQdc k h u vQc tieu t h u h a n g hod ciia n h a u , giam t h i e u sQ p h u thupe vao nQdc ngoai, de c u n g tdn tai va p h a t t r i e n . Do vay p h a i hien dai
h o i cdc dUdng giao t h d n g van tai, san bay, ben c i n g de tien eho giao luu h a n g boa npi bp k h u vUe N a m Tdy b a n cau. T r o n g dd, Brazil ddng vai trd ndng ed't vi c h u n g bien gidi vdi nhieu qud'c gia, lai cd t i e m n a n g kinh te ldn.
De k h a i thdc cac tiem n a n g kinh te, vd'n eon ngUdi lam giau cho dat nQdc, ngay s a u ngay dac cQ tdng thd'ng, eudl t h i n g 12/2002, dng Lula da Silva da t u y e n bd' t a i W a s h i n g t o n r i n g : Brazil se tim cac nUde cd n h i e u diem tQdng ddng vdi m i n h ve k i n h t e va q u a n diem lap trUdng t r o n g viec g i i i quyet nhieu t r a n h c h a p qud'e te nhU Nga, T r u n g Qud'c vd An Dp lam doi tdc chien lUdc lau dai. Ngay sau tuyen bd' nay, Bp trUdng Ngoai giao Brazil, dng C. Amorim, ndi t h e m , t r o n g so ddi tac dd cd ca Mexico va N a m Phi.
Ong Lula da Silva t u y e n bd' m a n h n h u vay vi dng dai dien phong t r a o c i n h ta, dQdc b a u ldm thii linh cdng doan 4 n a m Hen (1998-2002) - d i e cil tdng t h d n g vdi so' phieu i p d i o ddi phUdng - t r e n 52 t r i e u cii tri u n g bp dng lam tdng t h d n g vdi by vpng sQ ed m a t ciia dng t r o n g bd m a y cdng quyen cao nha't nQde se lam t h a y ddi bp mat da't nQdc ldn n h a t Tay N a m b a n cau, lam cho Brazil ngay cang g i i u m a n h , cd vi t r i ndi trdi d k h u vQc, dQde the gidi k i n h ne, tdn t r p n g t r e n chinh trQdng t h e gidi.
Niem tin ay d i n d i n trd t h a n h hien thiic. S a u khi dng len ldm Tdng thd'ng, G D P t a n g dn dinh, GDP/ngUdi n a m sau cao hdn n a m trQdc, t h i e u h u t ngan sach giam. G D P n a m 2002 t a n g 2%, n a m 2004 t a n g 5,7%, n a m 2005 t a n g 3,7%. GDP/ngUdi n a m 2005 la 4,8 ngdn USD, n a m 2006 la 5.7 ngan U S D . T h a m h u t n g a n sach n a m 2006 giam n h i e u so vdi n d m 1998, trong thdi gian 2000-2006 gia tieu dung tu 6% g i i m edn 3%, Cudi n a m 2007
36 SO 05-2009 CHAU MY NGAY NAY
Brazil da tii d i m bao dQdc xang dau, nhd p h i t hien md dau mdi, md "Tupi", cho phep Brazil trd thanh nQdc xui't khau d i u md. Nam 2007 Brazil dUdc xep hang thQ 10 trong so' 10 nQdc cd nen kinh te ldn hang dau the gidi. Dd la cd sd de dng Lula da Silva dac cii tdng thdng nhiem ky 2 (2007-2010) vao ngay 28/10/2006 vdi so' cii tri iing hp dng cdn nhieu hdn nhiem ky dau - tren 58 trieu cii tri sd vdi tren 52 trieu d nhiem ky d i u .
Dan gidu, nQdc manh l i m vi the vd uy tin ciia Brazil ngiy cang tang tren cic chmh trUdng the gidi. Thing 6/2003 theo sang kien ciia Brazil, nhdm 3 nUdc dang phdt trien (An Dp, Brazil, Nam Phi) dai dien cho 3 chiu liic ra ddi nham phdi hdp chinh sich ddi ngoai ciia 3 nQdc trong viec xii ly cic van de cap thiet ciia thdi dai.
TQ nam 2003 trd lai day, hdi nghi thQdng dinh nhdm G8 hpp lan nao Tdng thd'ng Brazil eung dQdc tham dil vdi tQ each la khich mdi. Bay lau nay Brazil tich ciic ting hd cii td Lien hiep qud'c, tham gia nhiet tinh bao ve l u i t phip qud'c te, coi dd l i cd sd ciia cic quan he qud'c te. NhQng, d day Brazil ddn phQdng phan ddi viec Lien hiep qudc dti kien dung td chQc k h i c - kieu nhQ NATO, thay the Hpi ddng Bio an lam nhiem vii giQ gin, bio ve hoi binh the gidi.
Nam 2004, cung vdi dti i n cai td Lien hiep qud'c, nhdm 4 nUdc Qng ctl vien thQdng triic Hdi ddng Bao an ra
ddi, gdm An Dp, Brazil, DQc va N h i t . Ca 4 nQdc trong nhdm deu tuyen bo' ring, ne'u hp dQdc b i u lam uy vien thQdng triic, hp se khdng dung quyen phii quye't trong 15 nam dau la iiy vien ctia Hpi ddng.
Bio gidi cho rang Brazil la Qng cii vien s i n g gia dai dien cho khu vQc My Latinh, cd the dQdc Nga, Anh, P h i p v i dac biet la Trung Qud'c nhiet liet iing hp, khd khan chi cdn d phia My.
My khong ra mat phan doi cai td Hpi ddng Bao an Lien hiep quo'c, nhQng lai cho rang, sau khi hoan td't phQdng an cai to Lien hiep qud'c, mdi xet den phQdng an cai td Hpi ddng Bao an. D Q luan cho rang, mpt ban tay du to may, cung khdng the che l i p mat trdi v i hy vpng Brazil - diem sang ctia Nam Tay b i n cau, dai dien cho khu vQc My Latinh cd the co ngay dQdc bau lam uy vien thQdng trQc Hpi ddng Bao an Lien hiep quo'c, neu Hpi ddng ndy dQdc ddi mdi ve mat to chQc nhQ phQdng an cai td Lien hiep quo'c da
vach ra • , Tdi lieu tham khdo
1 Sinh hogt qudc te My Latinh, Tap chi "My va Canada" - so' 11/08
2. Phong trdo cdnh td MLT, Tap chi "Chau My ngay nay" - so' 3/07
3. Nhiing thdch thiCc ciia ong Lula da Silva nhiem ky hai. NhU tren - so 4/07
4. Kinh te Brazil thdi gian qua. Biki - so 79/08.
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