CAC GIAI DOAN PHAT TRIEN
BAU Tir T R V C TIEP NITOC NGOAI CUA ASEAN
Nguyin Thi Kim Anh*
LeHdngNggc**
TOM TAT
Bdi viit nghien ciru suphdt triin hai ddng von ddu tu true tiip nude ngodl (vdo vd ra) ciia khu vuc ASEAN tiip can tir ly thuyit vi cdc giai dogn phdt trien ddu tu (Investment Development Path, con duac biit din vdi tin goi Id Mo hinh IDP) do nhd kinh te hoc J.H. Dunning de xudt.,.
Dua tren ca sd du lieu cim UNCTAD, bdi viit phdn tich suphdt trien ddu tu true tiep nude ngoai ciia khu vtrc ASEAN thdng qua viec xdc dinh cdc giai doan phdt trien ddu tu true tiep nude ngoai cua khu vuc vd cdc qudc gia thdnh vien trong moi quan he vdi suphdt trien kinh te cua khu vuc.
Tir khoa: giai doan phdt trien, ddu tu nude ngoai, FDI, ASEAN, Viet Nam Nhan bdi: 18/10/2016: Phdn bien vd sica chiia: 10/11/2016: Duyet ddng 5/12/2016 Mddau
Ki tit khi thtah lap dto nay, ASEAN da dat dugc nhito thtoh tim phat triin trto mpi linh vuc, dac biet la kinh ti, khiin khu vuc nay cd siic hip dto Idn va thu hiit dupe nhieu vdn ddu tu true tiip ciia nude ngoai (IFDI). Ddng thdi, su in djnh va phat triin cua khu vuc ciing tao diiu kito thiic diy diu tu true tiip ra nude ngoai (OFDI) cua cac quic gia thtoh vito. Su phat triin cua hai ddng FDI vao va ra ddng vai trd quan trpng, ho trg su phat trito kinh ti ciia khu vuc ndi chung va cac qudc gia thanh vito ndi ritog trong bdi etoh hdi nhap khu vuc va qudc ti.
Nghito ciiu hai ddng FDI cua ASEAN, ly thuyit ve cac giai doan phat triin cua diu tu (Investaient Development Path Md hinh
" Ph6 giao sir, Tiin sT, Tru6ng Dai hoc Kinli ta, Dai hoc Quoc gia Ha Npi
" Hoc vien cao hoc, Tnr6ng Dai hpc Kinh tS, Dai hpc Qu6c gia H^ N^i
IDP) va sd lito tir UNCTAD dupe sii dung de phto tich su phat tri6n diu tu true tigp nude ngoai ciia khu vuc ASEAN va cac qudc gia thanh vito.
1. Ly thuyet ve cae giai doan phat trien ciia diu tir (md hinh IDP)
Dau tu true tiep nude ngoai (FDI) khong phai la mot vto de nghito ciru mdi. Dto nay da cd nhito ly thuyet va md hinh giai thich nguyto nhto, ddng thai va su phat trito cua FDI, nhung de cd thi kit hop nghito ciiu ca hai ddng IFDI va OFDI ciia mot quic gia hay khu vuc thi ly thuyit vi cac giai dop phat trito ciia dto tu la mot trong si it cac 1;?
thuyit phii hpp va hilu ich.
La su md rdng cua ly thuyit chiit trung ve cae diiu kito qudc ti hda hoat dtog ciia cac cdng ty xuyto qudc gia (TNCs) d cip dd vl mo, md hinh IDP la mot each tiip cto 1^
luto ddi vdi mii quan he giila su phat ttiin
28 Tap chinghien citu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 12(136) thing 12/2016
Cac giai doan phat trien... Nguyen Thj Kim Anh-Le Hong Ngoc
FDI (bicu hien bang dau tu true tiep ra nude ngoai rdng (NOI) tinh bang su chenh lech giiia OFDI va IFDI) va sir phat trien kinh tl cua qudc gia (hieu thi bang tdng san lugng qudc gia (GNP) hoac tdng san pham qudc ndi (GDP). Dunning gia djnh rang qudc gia
cd xu hudng trai qua nam giai doan cua su phat triin kinh te vdi nhiing dac diem rieng biet ve hai ddng FDI va cau hinh cac Igi the vl vi tri dia Ii (Location advantages) cua qudc gia va Igi the sd huu (Ownership advantages) ciia cac doanh nghiep.
Hinhl. Cac giai doan phat trien ciia dau tu theo mo hinh IDP
/ • "
I
_ _ _ _ _ _
II
/ ' / '"" ''
III ?<
^ OFDI
IFDI
---, NOI GNP
\
Nguon: Narula & Dunning. 2010
Giai dogn 1 - Qudc gia hau nhu khdng co OFDI; khong co hoac cd rat it IFDI nen gia tri NOI am hoac bang 0. Q giai doan nay, qudc gia la mot nude nhan dau tu rdng va tren thuc te la nude tien cong nghiep hda va kem phat trien nhat tren the gidi. Cac qudc gia nay rd Igi the vi tri dia Ii rat han che (ca sd ha tang khdng day du, the che chua phat trien. thu nhap thap. tdn tai nhieu bat on chinh tri - kinh tc...). Doanh nghiep chua tich du loi the sd hiJu de cd the thirc hien OFDI.
Giai dogn 11 - Qudc gia da bat dau nhan dugc nhieu IFDI hem nhung muc NOI \an am. Tu\ da xuat hien OFDI, nhung hrgng OFDI khdng dang ke. nen qudc gia van la mdt nude nhan dau tu rdng. Cac Igi the vj tri dia !i va loi the sd hiru dugc cai thien nhung van con nhieu han che (nen kinh te md ciia.
tang trudng nhanh. doanh nghiep hoat dong hieu qua hon va gia tang kinh nghiem boat ddng qudc tc...).
Giai dogn III - Ca hai ludng FDI deu tang manh ve lugng va tdc do tang trudng. Lgi the vi tri dia li dugc cai thien chii yeu nhd qua trinh chuyen mdn hda rdng rai va su gia tang cac nganh tham dung cdng nghe cao.
Cac qudc gia o giai doan III !a cac nude mdi cdng nghiep hoa hoac "mdi ndi'" nhimg van la cac nude nhan dau tu rdng. Doanh nghiep da cd dugc nhieu lgi the sd huu; mot so da phat trien trd thanh TNCs vdi nang luc canh tranh cao. tich cue thuc diy hoat dong OFDI sang nhieu thj trudng.
Giai dogn IV - OFDI bit diu tang trudng
\e lugng vugt IFDI dan din gia tri NOI duong. Qudc gia trd thanh nude di dau tu rong. Lgi the vi tri dja li dugc cai thien dac biet ve chat lugng lao ddng va trinh do khoa hoc - cong nghe cao. Doanh nghiep da bit diu toan ciu hda va trd thanh TNCs, tham gia vao md rong thi trudng qu6c tc.
Giai dogn V - Quoc gia cd lugng IFDI va OFDI thuong xuyen d muc cao. \()I dao Tap chi nghien cuu cwkv ?\\\ &TKV\G\)6\G s6 12(136) thang 12/2016 29
Nguyen Thj Kim Anh-Le Hong Ngoc Cac giai doan phat trien...
ddng quanh miic 0, nh|n gia tri luc im liic duong phu thudc vao nhung bien ddng ngan han cua nin kinh tl va chiln luge ciia doanh nghiep. Qudc gia la mdt nude di dau tu rdng.
Thi trudng cac qudc gia d giai doan V cd su tuong ddng vl tt*inh do phat trien nen cac lgi, thi vi tri dia li trd nen khdng cdn quan trgng.
Doanh nghiep khdng ngimg toan ciu hda cac boat ddng san xuit kinh doanh, it phu thudc vao cac diiu kien ciia nude chu dau tu ma phu thuoc nhieu hon vao kha nang quan ly cd hieu qua cac lgi the sd hiru. Tren thuc tS, cac qudc gia d giai doan V la cac nude cdng nghiep hda hien dai va phat trien nhat the gidi (My, Nhat Ban, Anh...).
Theo Dunning, khdng phai tat ca cac qudc gia deu trai qua ca nam giai doan. Viec thay ddi giiia cac giai doan khi trinh do phat trien ciia qudc gia thay ddi ham y rang cac qudc gia khdng chi tien len cac giai doan cao hon ma cdn cd the thut liii nguge trd lai cac giai doan d trinh do phat trien thap hon. Ngoai ra, mot so qudc gia cd the "nhay cdc" bd qua mdt hoac mdt sd giai doan trong qua trinh phat trien.
Md hinh IDP dugc de cap va ung dung trong nhieu nghien cuu ve FDI tren thi gidi.
Da CO mdt so cdng trinh nghien cuu su phat Hinh 2. FDI ASEAN
triin FDI ciia qudc gia (An Do, Bd Dao Nha, Phan Lan, Trung Q u d c . ) hoac nhdm quoc gia theo khu vuc dia li (Trung Ddng va Bic Phi, Trung va Ddng Au) hoac nhdm qudc gia cd nhung dilm chung v l phat triin (cac qudc gia mdi phat trien, cac qudc gia giau tai nguyen...); tuy nhien, chua cd nghien ciru vl su phat triSn FDI ciia khu vuc ASEAN tiip can tir md hinh nay.
2. Sir phat tri^n dau tir true tiSp niro^c ngoai ciia ASEAN
Theo Bao cao dau tu ASEAN nam 2016, biic tranh FDI ciia khu vuc ASEAN trong nam 2016 tieh cue hon rit rihilu so vdi biic tranh FDI chung cua the gidi. ASEAN van giu vijtig vi the la mdt diem den chii dao ciia cac ddng FDI tren the gidi vdi lugng FDI chay vao khu vuc nay chiem khoang 16%
tdng lugng FDI toan cau. Ddng thdi, cac doanh nghiep cua ASEAN cung khdng ngimg md rdng dau tu trong khu vuc va ra the gidi, qua do thiic day dau tu ndi khoi va ngoai khdi.
Trong khoang thdi gian. 1990 - 2015 vdi sd lieu tdng hgp ciia toan khu vuc (aggregate data), hai ddng FDI ciia ASEAN nhin chung cd xu hudng tang len qua cac nam.
giai doan 1990 - 2015
(trieu USD)
Nguon: UNCTADSTAT, 2016
30 Tap chingltien cuu CHAU PHI & TRUNG BONG SI 12(136) thang 12/2016
Cac giai doan phat trfen... Nguyen Thj Kim Anh-Le Hong Ngoc
Tuy nhito lugng IFDI va OFDI diu chiu mdt sd tac dpng tir tinh hinh kinh te, chinh tri chung cua khu vuc va the gidi, dac biet trong cac giai doan xay ra khiing hotog kinh ti toto cau. Nghito ciiu cua Tomas (2014) cho thiy, cupc khiing hotog kinh t i nam 2008 da tao ra su thut Itii trong phat ttiin. Tac gia da chi ra rtog hau het cac quic gia chiu anh hudng ciia cupc khung hotog tai chinh toto ciu cd thi dl dtog quan sat dupe thdng qua su di chuy to theo duimg IDP ngoto ngoeo (zigzag) md ta tinh trang miic GDP bmh quto sut giam nhung miic dp am cua NOI ttog.
Ddi vdi khu vuc ASEAN trong giai doan 1990 - 2015, su phat triin kinh te ndi chung va FDI ciia khu vuc ASEAN ndi ritog chiu
^ dpng tit hai cupc khung hoang, dd la cudc khung hotog tai chinh chdu A ntoi 1997 va cupc khiing hotog kinh te toto cau ntoi2008.
Hinh 3. IDP ASEAN trong hai cuoc khung hoang kinh t i nam 1997 va 2008 (USD/nguai) iy9,'i-2UO0 2006-3011
Trong cupc khung hotog tai chinh chau A ntoi 1997, miic GDP binh quto cua khu vuc giam manh, tit 1.596 USD/ngudi nam 1996 xudng cdn 1.489 USD/ngudi nam 1997 va 985 USD/ngudi nam 1998. NOI cd xu hudng dao ddiig khac vdi GDP binh qudii khi ttog tit -231 USD/ngudi ntai 1996 Ito -98 USD/ngudi nam 1997 va giam xuing -252 USD/nguai ntoi 1998. Diiu nay cho thiy su tac dpng manh me cua cupc khtog hotog ntoi 1997 din su phat trien kinh ti va FDI cua khu vuc.
Trong cupc khtog hotog kinh te the gidi asm 2008, ca miic GDP binh quto va NOI diu gitoi, nhung khotog bito ddng khdng Idn nhu trong cupc khiing hotog nam 1997.
VI thi, dudng IDP ciia ASEAN trong giai doan nhirng ntoi 1997 bito ddng phirc tap hon trong giai doan nhilng ntoi 2008.
GDPpc GDPpc
Nguon: Tinh todn ciia nhom tdc gid Tir nhimg phto tich nay, cd the ket luto rtog hai cupc khtog hotog kinh te cd sir tac ddng nhit dinh dto qua trinh phat trito IDP ciia khu
vuc ASEAN. Vugt qua giai doan khtog hotog, hai ludng FDI deu dupe phuc hii va chung kiin sir gia ttog ve lugng vin diu tu.
Tap chinghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 12(136) thang 12/2016 - 31
Nguyen Thj Kim Anh-Le Hong Ngoc Cacgiaidoan phattri^p^
Hinh 4, TOP cua ASEAN giai do^n 1990 - 2015
(USD/ngudi)
NOIpc
0 -200 -400 -600 -SOO -1000 -1200 -1400
SOO 1000 1500 2000 2500
- • - • - .
GDPpc
3000 3500
• ^^
4000
••;
4500
NguSn: UNCTADstat, 2016
Nhin chung, ASEAN vin la mdt khu vuc nhto FDI rdng do tdng lugng OFDI thdp hon tdng lugng IFDL Gia tri NOI trong giai doan 1990 - 2015 iudn nhto mdc dm. Trong giai doan 1990 - 2015, lupng vin OFDI tuong duong 45% - 50% lupng vdn IFDI (d^t dinh khotog 67,5% vao ndm 2004).
Vi da cd mot lugng OFDI nhit dinh, ttog dto qua cac nam, nto cd the cho ring din nam 2015, ASEAN da phat triin din giai doan II trong nam giai doan phat triin theo md hinh IDP. So sanh kit qua nghito cim Hinh 5. GDP binh quan dau ngiroi ciia
IDP cua mgt sd khu vuc trto the gidi, trinh do phat triin cua ASEAN tuong duong vdi cac qudc gia khu vuc Trung Ddng va Bde Phi giai.
doan 1980 - 2003 (Divarei va cdng su, 2005) va cd trinh dp phat trien thip hon khu vuc Trung va Ddng Au vin dd tien vto giai dojn cao hon (Gorynia va cdng sir, 2010).
v i tdng thi, muc GDP binh quto ddu ngudi cua khu vuc vao khoang 2.00G USD/ngudi - 3.500 USD/ngudi va dat dinh vao nam 2013 tai muc 4.041 USD/ngudi;
day khdng phai la mdt mite thu nhap cao.
khu vyc ASEAN giai doan 1990 - 2015 (USD/ngudi)
kuillNi
Ngudn: UNCTADstat, 2016
Tap chinghien ciru CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG si 12(136) thang 12/2016
Cac giai doan phat trien... Nguyin Thj Kim Anh-Li Hong Ngoc
Ve IFDI ciia ASEAN: Nam 2015 co khoang 22.1% tdng IFDI cua ASEAN la diu tu ndi khoi (cac qudc gia thanh vien diu tu l§n nhau). FDI noi khdi vin luon giu ty trgng cao trong cac nguon vdn diu tu vao khu vuc.
Trong do, Malaysia, Philipines, Thai Lan va cac qudc gia CLMV la nhiing nude cd muc do diu tu ndi khdi cao. Theo sd liSu cila Bao cao Dau tu ASEAN 2016, cac qudc gia ngo^ khdi cd lugng vdn FDI Idn diu tu vao khu vuc ASEAN bao gdm cac qudc gia thugc EU (16,7%), Nhat Ban (14,5%) va My (11,3%). Cd thi nh|n thay ring, cac qudc gia nay deu cd trinh do phat trien kinh te cao hon cac qudc gia thanh vien ASEAN.
Phin Idn cac du an IFDI vao ASEAN nham muc dich tim kiem tai nguyen va tim kiem thi trudng do khu vuc nay cd nhiing lgi the hap din ve tai nguyen thien nhien va nguon lao ddng re va thi trudng Idn vdi hon 630 trieu dan (nam 2015). Ben canh do, khu vuc nay da cd mdt lugng dau tu dugc thuc hien d£ tim kiem cac tai san chien luge va hieu qua d nhiing qudc gia ASEAN cd trinh do phat trien cao hon nhu Singapore hay Malaysia.
Nhdm nude CLMV tiep tuc la dia diem nhan dugc nhieu IFDI trong khu vuc, tuy chi nhan dugc khoang 14% tdng IFDI vao ASEAN (nam 2016) nhung ty trgng khdng ngimg tang qua cac nam. Trong sd 14% IFDI cua khu vuc nam 2015, Viet Nam la qudc gia nhan dugc nhieu IFDI nhat (11,8%), tiep theo dd la Myanmar (2,8%), Campuchia (1,7%) va Lao (1,2%).
Ve OFDI ciia ASEAN: Cac doanh nghiep ASEAN ciing tiep tuc md rdng va thuc hien nhieu du an dau tu true tiep trong khu vuc va tren the gidi. Dieu nay da khdng chi thiic diy
FDI ndi khdi ma cdn gia tSng ty trgng FDI cua cac qudc gia ASEAN tai cac thi trudng khu vuc va thi gidi. Trong nam 2016, nhieu qudc gia thanh viSn ASEAN nhu Indonesia, Malaysia, Smgapore, Thai Lan va Vi§t Nam diu da cdng bo triin khai cac k l hoach diu tu trong khu vuc. Cung vdi su cai thien khdng ngimg mdi trudng diu tu trong khu vuc va dac biet la sir di vao hoat ddng chinh thuc cua Cong ddng Kinh t l ASEAN (AEC) vao 31/12/2015, cac doanh nghiep ASEAN va qudc tl da v^ dang tan dung dugc nhiing tac ddng tich cue va co hdi phat trien trong nhimg kl h o ^ h dau tu nham md rdng cac boat dgng san xuat qudc td ciia minh.
vi cdc lai the vi tri dia li cua ASEAN: Tii khi thanh lap ASEAN den nay, lgi the vi tri dia li cua khu vuc ngay cang dugc cai thien.
ASEAN la mdt thi trudng nang ddng va phat trien manh me. Tdc do tang trudng kinh te thuc binh quan hang nSm la 5,2% trong giai doan 2007 - 2015. ASEAN cd dan sd Idn thii ba tren thi gidi (khoang 630 trieu ngudi nam 2015), khiin khu vuc nay trd thanh mdt thi truong hip din cd quy md Idn. Lye lugng lao ddng Idn, chiim hem 50% dan sd (326 trieu ngudi nam 2015), cd su da dang vl trinh do lao ddng. Tat ca cac thi trudng ciia
10 qudc gia thanh vien deu md ciia cho cac nha dau tu nude ngoai. Co sd ha ting dugc cai thien hon vl he thdng giao thdng va thdng tin lien lac. Chinh phii ciia cac qudc gia thanh vien deu cd nhiiu chinh sach va bien phap thiic day sir phat friln cua nin kinh te qudc gia ndi rieng va toan khu vuc ndi chung. Thu nhap binh quan cua ciia ngudi dan ASEAN t5ng qua cac nam.
Ve cdc lai thi sa hiru cua doanh nghiep ASEAN: Cac doanh nghiep cua cac qudc gia phat triin hon trong khu vuc (Indonesia,
Tap chi nghien cuu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG SO 12(136) thang 12/2016 33
Nguyen Thj Kim Anh-Le Hong Ngoc Cac giai doan phat trien...
Smgapore, Philipmes, Thai Lan, Malaysia) thdng qua su tich lily kinh nghiem da thuc hien qudc tl hda cac boat dgng san xuat, tien hanh diu tu sang cac nude trong khu vuc va h-en thi gidi. Nhiiu tap doan Idn ciia ASEAN nim trgng top cac doanh nghiep IdU' cua ch§u A va thi gidi nhu Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (Thai Lan, gia tri thi trudng 9,9 ty USD), Cdng ty cd phin siia Viet Nam Vinamilk (Viet Nam, gia tri thi hTidng 9,2 ty USD), JoUibee Foods (Philipines, gia tri thi trudng 5,9 ty USD), Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (Indonesia, gia tri thj trudng 1,8 ty USD)... Cac doanh nghiep dat tim TNCs ciia ASEAN da phin la cac tap doan kinh tl Idn, da va dang thirc hien nhieu du an OFDI tai c^c thi trudng khu vyc va qudc te. Mot sd dy an dau tu ndi khdi dien hinh dugc cac doanh nghiep ASEAN thuc hien nhu: Tap doan Lippo (Indonesia) dau tu 420 trieu USD vao ITnh vuc cham sdc sue khde d Myanmar; Mega First (Malaysia) dau tu 500 trieu USD vao ITnh vyc thuy dien d Lao; Sembcorp (Singapore) dau tu 300 trieu USD vao ITnh vuc san xuat dien d Myanmar;
Viettel (Viet Nam) diu tu 800 trieu USD vao ITnh vyc thdng tin lien lac d Campuchia...
Cac doanh nghiep cua cac qudc gia kem phat trien hon, chua cd dii kha nang diu tu ra nude ngoai ciing da tham gia vao nhiiu cdng doan trong cac chudi gia tri toan ciu ciia TNCs. Day la mdt hoat ddng qudc tl dem lai nhieu tac dong tich eye va co hdi phat triin cho cac doanh nghiep vira va nhd trong viec Cling cd, tan dung tdi uu cac lgi thi sd huu va lgi the canh tranh san cd va gia tang cac lgi the mdi, nang cao hieu qua hoat ddng va kha nang canh tranh ciia doanh nghiep.
3. Sir phat trien diu tu true tiip nude ngoai ciia cac quoc gia thanh vien ASEAN
Trong mdt sd nghien cuu, vi thS IDP ciia tirng qudc gia thanh :vien ASEAN da dugc xdc dinh. Nghien cuu ciia Yasar va cdng su (2015) ddi vdi han 135 qudc gia trong giai doan 1980 - 2005 da chi ra cac giai doan va su thay ddi vj tri giiia cac giai doan ciia cac qudc gia thanh vien ASEAN; Campuchia, Lao va Viet Nam d giai doan II; Indonesia, Malaysia, Philipines va Thai Lan da dat den giai doan IV va Singapore da dat din giai doan V. Nghien ciiu nay ciing cho thay cac qudc gia ASEAN cd su thay ddi giira cac giai doan phdt triSn phii hgp vdi mo hinh IDP.
Theo Bao cao diu tu thi gidi nam 2016, cd the thay vi tri IDP ciia mdt sd qudc gia nam 2015 la nhu sau: Campuchia da d cuoi giai doan I (1.159 USD/ngudi); Myarunar d cudi giai doan I (1.175 USD/ngudi); Lao a cudi giai doan I (1.841 USD/ngudi); Viet Nam d cudi giai doan I (2.085 USD/ngudi);
Indonesia da budc vao giai doan II (3.407 USD/ngudi); Philipines d dau giai doan II (2.961 USD/ngudi), Malaysia d cudi giai doan II (9.684 USD/ngudi); Thai Lan d giai doan II (5.757 USD/ngudi); va Singapore d giai doan V (51.379 USD/ngudi). Dieu nay cung cho thay sy chenh lech trong trinh do phat trien kinh te va FDI ciia cac qudc gia trong khu vyc
Trinh do phat trien kinh te ciia cac quoc gia thanh vien cd sy chenh lech Idn, khi miic GDP binh quan ciia Singapore cao gap 44 lan Campuchia (nam 2015).
Trong sd 10 qudc gia thanh vien ASEAN, dl dang nhan thiy nhdm ASEAN-6 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philipin, Singapore, Thai Lan va Brunei) la nhimg nude cd trinh do phat triin kinh tl cao hon nhdm CLMV
Tap chinghien ciiu CHAU PHI & TRUNG DONG S6 12(136) thang 12/2016
Cac giai doan phat trien.. Nguyen Thj Kim Anh-Le Hong Ngoc
(Campuchia. Lao. Myanmar va Viet Nam).
Vi thi. lugng OFDI va IFDI ciia nhdm 6 qudc gia nay cao hon ban so vdi 4 qudc gia cdn lai. Xet rieng ddng IFDI, ASEAN-6 chiem din 77,4% tdng IFDI ndi khdi ASEAN va 87.4% tdng IFDI ngoai khdi ASEAN.
4. Nhan xet va ket luan
Ndi dung cot loi ciia md hinh IDP la mdi quan he giira trinh do phat triin ciia FDI va trinh do phat trien kinh te ciia qudc gia hoac khu vyc, bieu thi qua hai biin s6 NOI va GDP cd sy dieu chinh theo dan sd. Theo mo hinh, GDP binh quan cang cao thi trinh dp phiit trien cua NOI cang cao. Tuy nhien. mdt so trudng hop nghien ciiu thyc chung da chi ra rang mot sd qudc gia cd nhieu tuong ddng ve NOI nhung lai khac biet ve trinh do kinh te bieu hien qua GDP binh quan, va ngugc lai. Van de nay xay ra trong trudng hgp cua 10 quoc gia Trung va Ddng Au va da dugc cac tac gia (Gorynia va cong sy, 2010) ly giai bang tac ddng ciia hoi nhap khu vyc (10 quoc gia nay gia nhap Lien minh Chau Au) den sy phat trien kinh te ndi chung va FDI noi rieng. Nhdm tac gia da khang dinh sy hoi nhap khu vyc. dac biet la mot lien minh kinh le CO tac dgng tich eye, dan den sy thay ddi
\a nhirng khac biet trong trinh do phat trien kinh tc \ a FDI cua cac qudc gia.
Trong trudng hgp ciia cac qudc gia thanh vic'n ASEAN: Campuchia. Lao, Viet Nam, hidonesia, Philipines va Thai Lan hien dang Cling phat trien den giai doan II trong nam giai doan phat trien Tuy d cung mot giai doan phat trien FDI nhung trhih do phai trien kinli le cua cac quoc gia nay lii khdng tucmg dong. cd sy chenh lech: Muc GDP binh quan ciia nhom cac qudc gia Campuchia. Lao va
\'iet Nam thap hon ban miic GDP binh quan
cua Indonesia va Philipin, va deu thap hon mirc GDP binh quan cua Thai Lan. Ba qudc gia thudc nhdm CLMV la nhung qudc gia cd mirc GDP binh quan thap nhat va cd trinh do phat trien kinh le kha khiem tdn trong kliu vyc. Ba qudc gia cdn lai trong nhdm ASEAN6 cd trinh do phat trien kinh te cao hon so vdi cac qudc gia gia nhap sau.
Cung hudng tdi muc tieu tao ra mdt khu vyc on dinh, phat trien trong bdi canh toan cau hda va hdi nhap khu vyc nhung ASEAN bat dau qua trinh hinh thanli cac lien ket kinh te khu vyc mugn hon EU; muc do cam ket hgi nliap kinh te khu vyc khdng sau rdng bang dan den nhung lac dgng ciia sy hdi nhap khu vyc va tham gia lien minh kinh te khdng rd rang nhu EU. Ben canh do, xuat phat diem ciia cac qudc gia ASEAN thap hon cac qudc gia HU va cd nhieu sy chenh lech Irong trinh do phat trien kinh te va dau tu true tiep nude ngoai.
De dap ling yeu cau phat trien va lien ket trong khu vyc, Cong ddng ASEAN dugc thanh lap vdi su di vao hoat dgng cua Cdng ding Kinh tl ASEAN vao ngay 31 thang 12 nam 2015 Myc dich ciia Cong ddng Kinh tl ASEAN la thdng qua hgi nhap khu vyc dl thiic day sy phat triin cua cac quic gia thanh vien; qua dd, cac qudc gia thanh vien dat dugc mirc do tang trudng kinh tl va trinh do phat trien FDI cao hem. Nhieu cdng trinh nghien ciiu da chi ra nhung tac dgng tich eye va CO hgi tir sy hinh thanh Cong ddng Kinh le ASEAN ddi vdi sy phat triin mot each can bang va thu hep khoang each phat triin ve kinh le ndi chung va FDI noi rieng ciia cac qudc gia thanh \icn. Tu> chi mdi dugc chinh thirc hoat dgng, cac lac dgng la chua rd net nhung cd the ky vong ring Cong dong Kinh tc ASEAN se dua muc do hgi nhap
Tap chi nghien ciru cu U nn & TRUNG DONG SI 12(L^6) thiing 12/2016 •
Nguyen Thj Kim Anh-Le H5ng Ngoc Cac giai doan phat trien...
kinh tl khu vyc len nhiing thang bac cao hon, tao ra nhiing tac ddng tich eye va sy chuyin biin kinh tl va FDI manh me trong khu vuc. Trong bdi canh tich eye nhu vay, cd thi ky vgng mdt biic tranh FDI toan canh cua khu vuc ASEAN tuoi sang hon niia trong tuong lai, vugt qua nhiing kho khan va rao can kinh tl khu vuc va the gidi.
Nhin chung, each tiip can ly thuyit vl cac giai doan phat triin ciia diu tu - Md hinh IDP do nha kinh tl hoc J.H.Dunning dl xuit da cho thiy sy phii hgp trong nghien ciiu mdi quan he giiia trinh dp phat triin kinh te va trinh do phat triin hai ddng diu tu tryc tiip nude ngoai trong trudng hgp ciia khu vuc ASEAN va cac qudc gia thanh vien.
ASEAN kha khiem tdn; giua cac qudc gia thanh vien cdn cd sy chenh lech Idn ve trinh do phat triin kinh te ndi chung va phat triin hai ddng FDI ndi rieng. Day vdn la mot thach thiic trong qua trinh hgi nhap va phat triin kinh te ciia khu vuc ndi chung va tung qudc gia thanh vien ndi rieng, dac biet la trong bdi canh hdi nhap Cdng ddng ASEAN.
Trong bdi canh hdi nhap kinh te khu vuc vdi sy van hanh ciia Cdng ddng Kinh te ASEAN, cac qudc gia thanh vien phai nhan thiic dugc va tranh thii tan dung tdi uu cac Igi thi va co hgi de thiic day sy phat trien, nang cao hieu qua ciia hai ddng vdn FDI ciia qudc gia va khu vuc nham tdi da hda Igi ich cho su phat trien kinh te va hdi nhap khu vyc.
Nhin tdng thi, trinh do phat trien ciia Tai lifu tham khao
1. ASEAN Secretariat (20\6), ASEAN Investment Report 2016: Foreign Direct Investment and MSME Linlcages, Indonesia.
2. Divarei A., Hisarcikliiar M., Kayalica M.O. and Kayam S.S. (2005), Foreign Direct Invesment and Development in MENA Countries. Available at: <http://www.ecomod.net/sites/default/files/document- con ference/ecomod2 005 -mena/Di varc i. pdf>.
3. Gorynia M. Nowak J. and Wolniak R. (2010), Foreign Direct Investment of Central and Eastern European Countries and the Investmetn Development Path Revisited, Eastern Journal of European Studies, 2010, Vol. 1, Issue.2, pp.21 -36.
4. Narula R. and Dunning J.H. (2010), Multinational Enterprises, Development and Globalisation:
Some Clarifications and a Research Agenda, Oxford Development Studies, vol.38, 3: 263-287.
5. Ramasamy B. (1998), Malaysia's Investment Development Path. Malaysian Management Review.
6. Tomas P. (IQIA), Analysis of the Investment Development Path in the Central and Eastern European Countries: Can they move further'^, MA thesis, Charles University in Prague.
7. UNCTAD (United Nation Conference on Trade and Development) (2006). World Investment Report 2006 - FDI from Developing and Transition Economies: Implications for Development, Switzerland.
8. Yasar E., Acikalin S. and Gezer M.A , (2015), Testing IDP Hypothesis by Cluster Analysis. Which Countries in WhichStage?, Procedia Economics and Finance, vol. 23, pp.1201-1209.
