The giai: Van de - Su kien Tap chf W n g f ^
CHIEN LUOC AN DO DUONG - THAI BINH DUONG TV DO VA RONG MO CUA MY:
VAI TRO VA CAiCH THUC TRIEN KHAI
PHAM THI THANH BINH* - VU NHAT QUANG**
Khu vuc An Bp Buffng - Thdi Binh Buong ngdy cdng dong vai tro quan trpng trong the ky XXI. Nhieu nhd phan tich cho rdng, kiim sodt An Bp Buffng - Thdi Binh Buffng vi cff bdn se kiim sodt duffc thi gi&i b&i phdn l&n cdc giao dich thuang mai thi gi&i diu tap trung tai khu vuc ndy. Bin canh do, day cung Id khu viec ndm & vi tri trung tdm cua cdc Iffi ich chien luffc chinh tri vd kinh ti cua thi gi&L
Vi tri va vai tro cua idiu vyc An Do Dtfong - Tliai Binli Duong
An Dg Duong - Thai Binh Duong la khu vuc nam ven bd An Do Duong va phia Tay Thai Binh Ducmg cung cac vimg bien ndi liin hai dai duong nay, bao gdm cac qudc gia d Ddng Bac A, Ddng Nam A, Nam A cung nhieu qudc gia thugc Trung Ddng va chau Phi. Khu vuc An Dp Duong- Thai Binh Duong vdi dan sd chiem gan mdt niia dan sd the gidi, cd nhieu ngudn tai nguyen phong phu va nhieu tuyen dudng bien yet hau quan trgng cua kinh te, thuong mgi toan cau. Day ciing la mdt trong nhung khu vuc nang ddng bac nhat ve kinh te, cd the hd trg, thiic day lan nhau gifta cac nin kinh te phat trien va dang phat trien. Vdi kiln tao dia hinh, khu vuc nay bao gdm nhilu diem "that cd chai" tren cac tuyen giao thdng bien cd y nghia chien luge, sdng cdn ddi vdi thucmg mai the gidi, nhu tuyln qua eo bien Ma-lac-ca, Be-ring,... Cd the thay, myln dudng bien d An Do Duong ddng vai trd quan trgng trong van chuyen dau md, khi ddt va hang hda tren the gidi, tii
Trung Ddng din 6-xtray-li-a va Ddng A.
Day cQng la viing biln ndi tilng bit dn vdi nan cucfp biln va khiing bd. Vi vgy, vi6c bao dam an ninh cho tuyln huyet mgch cua kinh tl thi gidi dugc cac qudc gia dgc biet quan tam.
Khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong hien cd ba nin kinh te ldn nhat the gidi la My, Trung Quoc va Nhgt Ban; cd 1 trong s6 8 thi tnrdng phat triln nhanh nhit thi gidi, diln hinh la An Dp, Trung Qudc, Bang-la-det, Ddng Ti-mo, Pa-pua Niu Ghi-ne,... va 7 frong sd 10 lyc lugng quan dpi cd quy md ldn nhat toan cau la My, Trung Qudc, An Do, Nhat Ban, Han Qudc, Pa-ki-xtan va 6-xttay-li-a. Khdng chi vgy, khu vyc nay la noi chiing kiln su canh tranh khoe liet vl dia chiln luoc, ve cac ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien, tao nguy co cac dilm ndng chiln luge.
Do vi tti, vai trd ngay cang quan trong ciia khu vuc, cac cudng quoc, nhu Nga, Trung
* PGS, TS. Vien Han lam Khoa h^c xa hoi Viet Nam
** ThS, Vien Kinh tg va Chinh tri thS gioi
102 So 938 (thang 3 nam 2020)
-^« kien T|ip chi C^ng s a n
Qudc, Nhat Ban, An Dp, dac biet la My diu cd nhftng dilu chinh chiln luge nham tang cucmg anh hudng va bao ve lgi ich ciia mmh tai khu vyc. Nam 2017, tgi Diln dan Hgp tac kinh tl chau A - Thai Binh Duong (APEC), Tdng thdng My D. Tram da dl cap y tudng xay dyng khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong tu do va rdng mo. Khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Ducmg la lya chpn chiln luge ciia My lam ddi sach chii chdt d chau A, gift vai frd quan ttpng ddi vdi an ninh va lgi ich qudc gia cua My. Thuang raai giua My va khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Bmh Duong chiem han 1,8 nghin ty USD mdi nam, ddng gdp hon 3,3 trieu viec lam tai My. Ngoai thuang mgi. My dumg diu ve dau tu ttong khu vuc. Nam 2018, My rdt hon 1 nghin ty USD vdn dau tu tryc tiep nudc ngoai (FDI) vao khu vuc, diing dau the gidi ve FDI vao khu vyc'*' (hien tgi, FDI ciia My vao Viet Nam la khoang 1,5 ty USD, Phi-lip-pin la 6 ty USD, Thai Lan 15 ty USD, Xin-ga-po ban 260 ty USD). Myc tieu ciia My trong thdi gian tdi la tang vdn FDI cho cac qudc gia frong khu vyc, tap trung vao ba lliih vuc la kmh te sd, nang lugng va ha ting. Ngoai ra, My cung cap khoan hd ttg fri gia tren 1,8 ty USD cho khu vyc frong nam20I8<2'.
Muc tidu cdt loi ciia chien luge An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong ciia My la nham xay dyng mdt true lien minh "Bd tii" gdm My, Nhgt Ban, 6-xtray-li-a va An Do de kiem che, ngan chan su trdi day cua Trung Qudc tai khu vuc, gianh quyen chii dgo, kiem soat toan bd khu vuc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong. Tu dd, tilp tyc duy tri Igi ich kinh te, quyen lyc chinh fri, sue mgnh quan sy va ngoai giao ciia My. Nhftng thay ddi chien luge nay dang va se mang den nhieu co hpi, nhung ciing dgt ra nhieu thach thiic ddi vdi nhiing nudc d khu vyc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong, kl ca nhiing nudc nhd, dang phat trien, trong bdi canh
khu vuc chua cd mdt co chl da phuang vl an ninh tap the.
Muc tiSu va noi ham cua chiln lurffc Chiln luge An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong tu do va rdng rad (FOIP) cua My ra ddi xuat phat hi hai myc tieu chinh:
Thu nhdt, xuat phat hi nhtrng yeu td ndi tai cua My gan lien vdi tinh chat trgng yeu ve an ninh qudc gia va vai trd cua My tten the gidi. La khu vuc tiep giap vdi nhieu dgi duang, ciia ngo, yet hau ndi lien My vci the gidi. An Dd Duong - Thai Binh Duong ludn dugc My coi la khu vuc dia - chien luoc frgng yeu, tac ddng true tiep den an ninh qudc gia va vai frd lanh dgo the gidi ciia My.
Viec thyc hien chiln luge FOIP la each de My bao ve lgi ich qudc gia, bao dam su ty do va an ninh giao thdng dudng bien, duy tri thi can bang luc lugng, thiic day eac boat ddng ngoai giao va giao luu van hda - xa hdi tai khu vyc.
Thu hai, xuit pbat hi tinh hinh an ninh khu vyc, sy frdi day manh me cua Trung Qudc cung vdi viec xay dyng va quan su hda d Biln Ddng dugc xem la de dga ddng chay thuang mgi ty do, de dpa thu hep chii quyln ciia cac qudc gia, lam suy giam su dn dinh, an ninh khu vyc. BOidng chi cd vgy. Sang kien
"Vanh dai, Con dudng" (BRI) ciia Trung Qudc dang thach thiic vai frd lanh dao ciia My tgi khu vuc An Do Duong - Thai Bmh Duong - noi chua cd co chl da phuang ve an nmh, chii ylu dya fren cac hiep dinh va thda thuan song phuang (nhu Hiep udc An nmh
(1) Chi^n luoc An D6 Duo-ng - Thai Binh Duong - xay dimg m^t khu vuc dira tren luat le va tieu chuSn cao, vufoorg.vn/Chien-luoc-An-Do-Duong-Thai-Bink-Du- ong—xay-dung-mot-lchu-vuc-dua-tren-luat-le-va-tieu- chuan-cao-14-4263 htmPlang^vn
(2) My cung cSp 1,8 ty USD cho An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong nam 2018, https://baoquocte.vn/
my-cung-cap-lS-ty-vsd-cho-an-do-diiong-thai-binh- duong-nam-20!8-81969.html
S6 938 (thang 3 nam 2020) 103
The gicd: Van de - Su kien T«ip «hi C ^ n a j
My - Nhat Ban, Hiep uoc phong thu song phuong My - Han Quoc,...).
Do ca hai yeu to tren. My can tap hop lire lucmg, that chat moi quan hi ngo^i giao voi cac dong minh tai Ichu vuc de bao ve loi ich, duy tri anh htrong va vi tri sieu cuong ciia My tai khu vuc An Bo Duong - Thai Bmh Duong. Theo do, chien luoc FOIP cua My duoc trign khai tren ba linh vuc chu chdt:
Kinh ti, quan tii va an nmh.
vi kinh ti, muc tieu ctia My huong d^n huy dgng cac doanh nghiep khu vuc tu nhau va cac dinh chl tai chinh dau iM nhieu hon vao khu vuc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong. Chien luge FOIP cua My tap trung dong thai phat trien kinh te, hgp tac an ninh va gia tang tiem luc quan su. My ngay cang tang cuong chinh sach bao hg thuang mai, canh tranh ngay ca vai cac dong miuh truyen thSng, thuc hien chinh sach loai trir doi voi nhiing doi thu chien luge va thg hien thai do khong chap nhan bi rang bugc truac cac dinh che quoc te truyen thong va thach thuc toan cau.
My tiep tuc tang cuong quan he hgp tac vol cac nuoc, cac thi trudng ldn de duy tri vi the dau tau kinh te. Tang cudng chinh sach ngan chan tham hut thuang mai va canh tranh bat binh dang vdi cae nudc trong khu vuc thong qua thiet lap hang rao thue quan, ap dung luat sd huu tri tue, cac dinh chg tai chinh... de bao ve thi trudng My va kiem chi nudc khac ve kinh te. Tuy nhien tren thuc
\i. My dang gap kha khan trong canh tranh vdi Trung Quoc ve dau tu ha tSng d An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong, do Trung Qu6c vdi Sang kien BRI ciing dang gia tang d^u tu manh me vao xSy dung kgt ciu ha tjng dudng bg, dudng sjt, dudng bign d cac nudc Trung A, Nam A va cac nudc chau Phi dS md rgng anh hudng kinh tg.
My da ky cac hiep dinh thuang mai song phucmg mdi vdi nguygn tic "tu do, cong bang va cd di, CO lai" vdi Han Quoc, Me-hi-co,
Ca-na-da va Nhat Ban. Ngoai ra, Tong thong D. Tram quygt dinh thanh lap Quy Tai trg phat trign (IDFC) vdi tdng ni gia 6" ty U^U;
Theo dd. My cam kgt hd trg xay dung hai cang, san bay, dudng bg va dudng sat, he thdng dng din d k va dudng truygn du heu hien dai cho khu vuc An Do Duong - Thai Binh Duong.
Trong tru cgt kinh tg, dg tang cudn| thinh vugng chung. My tign hanh each tiep can cd su tham gia cua toan bd chmh phu nham thuc day thuong mai cdng blng ya cd di, cd lai; tang cudng hgp tac vg kinh tg va thuong mai cimg vdi viec man thu cac tieu chuan cao nhit va tdn trgng chu quygn, quyen tu quygt cua nudc sd tai, ciing nhu huy dgng diu hr khu vuc tu nhan cho khu vuc An Dg Ducmg - Thai Binh Duong.
Vi qudn tri, quan tri tdt la im cdt cdt loi trong tim nhin cua My ddi vdi khu vuc. My cam kdt hgp tac vdi cac qudc gia trong khu vuc trong viec tao ra nhiJng diSu kien can thigt nhim "md ciia cho ngudn dau tu tu nhan ldn han", "chdng tham nhOng va bao dam quygn tu quygt cua cac qudc gia", "thuc diy minh bach hda, cdng khai, bao ve quydn con ngudi va cac quyen tu do co ban". My dg cao tinh minh bach va hieu qua cua cac khoan diu tu, dac biet lien quan tdi eac du an yg phat triln kgt ciu ha ting. Khuygn khich diu tu tu Lien minh chau Au (EU), 6-xtray-li-a, Nhat Ban, Trung Qudc vao khu vuc nhung cin dua tren nguygn tac minh bach de bao dam ngudn diu hr hieu qua. Muc tigu ciia chign luge An Dg Duang - Thai Binh Duong vg mat quan tri la xay dung mdt khu vuc dua tren lu jt lg va tigu chuin cao.
My Cling hudng diu tu thilc diy nhimg muc tieu phat triln ehung trong khu vuc nhim hinh thanh thg chg hgp tac co quan tri tdt, cdng bing. Bdng thdi, khuygn khich phat triln cac giao dich tai chinh ed trach nhiem, ciing nhu cai each nganh tu phap va luat phap dl cd quan tti tdt.
104 So 938 (thing T, nam 2020)
cjy kien T a p chf C ^ n g sAn
My day mgnh hpp tac frong khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong nhSm giai quyet nhihig mdi de dpa chung, bao ve nhung ngudn luc chung. Cy thi, My hop tac chat che vdi khu vyc frong vi6c phi hgt nhan hda ban dao TriSu Tien, bao ye cac quyln va ty do hang hai tgi vung bien Hoa Ddng va Biln Ddng, ciing nhu ngan chan su gia tang cua lyc luong khung bd. My cung cd quan hd vdi cac nudc ddng minh de tgo su can bing chiln luac giua My vdi cac trung tam quyln lyc chinh tri, siic manh kinh te, quan sy fren thd gidi; ddng thdi, hinh thanh cac lien minh mdi de bao vay, ddi ttpng vdi Tmng Qudc va Nga, duy tri vai trd, vi the sieu cudng cua My fren the gidi.
My md rdng quan he ddi tac frong linh vyc quan sy va chinh fri vai cac nudc trong khu vuc thdng qua phat trien hpp tac ky thuat - qudn su, tang cudng hien dien quan su tgi khu vuc, song song vdi viec md rdng kSt cau ha ting, tgo Igp he thdng co sd tien ddn de trien khai lyc lupng quan sy ve phia tmdc ciia My.
Vi an ninh. My thuc day hpp tac qudc phdng vdi cdc nudc trong khu vye, bao dam an ninh trdn khu vyc dgi duong trai dai tir bien Nh§t Ban tdi An Dp Duong va toan bd tuydn dudng trgn bien tdi chau Phi; hd tra ddng minh duy tri sue mgnh vuat trpi ve quSn su. De ciing cd va mdf rpng lien minh, My tSp trung vao hai bien phap chinh: Mpt la, tang cudng vi tri chien luoc ciia An Dp, khuyin khich An Dp ddng vai trd ldn hon frong khu vuc va diy manh thucmg mgi quSn sy vdi nudc nay; hai Id, thanh Igp lidn minh "Bp tu:" nham kiem scat toan bd khu vuc, ngan chgn khdng de cac nudc trong khu vuc thach thuc vai tro lanh dgo cua My.
My tilp tuc hgp tac vdi cac qudc gia cd Cling quan diem nhim ddi phd voi cac mdi de dpa c4p bach frong khu vuc, tu viec phd bien via khi hat nhSn tdi chu nghia cyc doan
va khung bd. My cung cdp hem nua ty USD dl hd fro an ninh (nam 2018)*^', bao gdm g4n 400 trieu USD ho frp cho cac lyc lupng quan dpi ciia cac nudc dong minh ttong khu vyc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong, nhieu hem ca tdng sd tien hd fro cua cac nam 2015-2017.
Chinh sach "Nu&c A^ tren hit" cua chinh quyln cua Tdng thong D. Tram da dl xuat ngan sach qudc phdng nam 2019 len tdi 716 ty USD, tang 7% so vdi dl xuit cho nam 2018 va tang 13% so vdi chi tieu qudc phdng nam 2017. Tiem lyc quan su cua My trong khu vuc An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong hien van cd uu the. Hogt ddng dau tu manh vao qudc phdng cua My tgo dieu kien md rdng hpp tac quan sy va hd fro nhilu hon cho cac ddng minh va ddi tac trong khu vyc.
Diem mdi quan ttpng frong chien lupc FOIP la My sg bd sung nhieu ngudn lyc hon cho khu vuc (den nam 2020, khoang 60%
ngudn lyc hai quan ciia My se hien dien tai day). Theo do. My gia tang hd frp cac qudc gia gin giu hda binh, giam nhe thien tai va curu tto nhan dgo.
Vdi ba ndi dung ttpng yen tten, trong qua trinh friln khai cu the. My chu truong gin kit vdi cac nudc ddng minh, nhat la vdi ba qudc gia Nhat Ban, An Dp va 6-xfray-li-a:
Mpt Id, My khdng tach biet ma gin kit chiln lupc nay vdi cac ddi tac, nhu gan ket chat che vai " K I hogch Thai Binh Ducmg ty do va rdng md" ciia Nhgt Ban, vdi Chinh sach "Hanh ddng hudng Ddng" ciia An Dp, K I hogch Thai Binh Duong - An Dp Duong ciia 6-xfray-li-a, "Chinh sach phuang Nain mdi" ciia Han Qudc va "Chlnh sach gin ket vdi phuang Nam" cua vung lanh thd Dai Loan (Tnmg Qudc).
(3) A Free and Open Indo-Pacific: Advancing a Shared Vision; https-//www.stale.gov/wp-content/
upioads/2019/11/Free-and'Open-Indo-Pacific- 4Nov20l9.pdf
So 938 (thang 3 nam 2020) 105
T h e giai: Vaji d e - S y kien T a p chi C^**a^
Hai la. My dua ra y tudng chien lupc cho cac doi tac ttong khu vyc vdi su tham gia ciing thyc hien va tham chi cd su phan cdng, phan vai de hoan thanh nhiem vu. My va 0-xttay-li-a nhan manh khia cgnh an ninh, frong khi Nhat Ban va An Dp nhin mgnh sy ket ndi, tu do hang hai, tdn ttpng luat phap qudc te.
Ba la. My su dung chiSn luoc FOIP dd ddi phd vdi Trung Qude, Cdng hda Dan cbii Nhan dan Trieu Tien va Nga. Hanh ddng cua Trung Qudc d Bien Ddng dupe My coi la mdt trong nhiing thach thiic ldm ve chinh tri - an ninh va quan he qudc te, ddi hdi My phai danh uu tien chinh sach hang dau de ddi phd.
Bdn la. My thuyet phuc cac nudc ttong khu vyc tin tudng My, gan ket vdi My va than ttpng vdi Trung Qudc. An Dp Duong - Thai Binh Duong la khu vyc uu tien ciia My, nhung ttat ty bin vung d khu vyc hi anh hudng bdi vai trd ciia Trung Qudc, khi Hiep dinh Ddi tac Kinh t l toan dien khu vuc (RCEP) do Trung Qudc din d i u dy kiln dupe ky kit frong nam 2020, duoc xem la mdt ylu td gay phuc tap ddi vdi chien lupc FOIP ciia My.
T a c d o n g c u a C h i e n lirffc A n D o D i r o n g - T h a i B i n h DiroTig t y d o v a r o n g mo* c u a M y dot v o l k h u v u c
Viec thyc thi chiln luoc FOIP cua My se cd nhiing tac dpng ddi vdi cac qudc gia frong va ngoai khu vyc tren nhieu phuong dien, ca ve thdi CO va thach thiic:
Thu nhdt, vdi chien luoc nay, mpt mat.
My tgo ra san choi mdi, canh tranh tu do va cdi md, khdng le thudc vao Sang kien BRI ciia Trung Qudc; mat khac, chien lupc FOIP thiic day cac qudc gia tang cudng tiem luc qudc phdng - an ninh ddi vdi cac nudc trong khu vyc. Chiln lupc nay d mdt muc dp nhat dinh tgo co hdi cho cac nudc trong khu vuc tranh thu dupe nhiing yeu td
phu hpp v l vdn, cdng nghe, gdp ph^f P . triln kinh t l - xa hpi, thiic d i y ^^^^!^°^^1 phdng - an ninh, ddi phd vdi cac thach tnu
an ninh chung. .A Thie hai, chiln lupc FOIP tac dpng aen
tu duy qudc phdng va xay dimg quan dpi, thiic diy kha nang hpp tac qudc phong sau ban giaa quan ddi cac nudc khu vyc voi My^
Dilu chinh chiln luoc cua My lam nay sinh canh tranh manh me frong quan he giua cac nudc ldn, tao co hdi d l cac nudc frong khu vuc tranh thii hpp tac xay dung, nang cao tilm luc khoa hpc - cdng nghe, phuc vu hien dai hda quan dpi.
Thie ba. su tdn tai ddng thdi "Sang kien BRI" ciia Tmng Qudc va FOIP cua My cd nguy CO d i y khu vuc vao tmh trgng cang thing, cgnh franh, nhit la tgi nhung "dilm ndng", nhu Biln Ddng, biln Hoa Ddng, viing lanh thd Dai Loan (Trung Qudc) va ban dao Tridu Tien. Them niia, sy cg xat giila
"Sang kiln BRI" ciia Trung Qudc va "Chi6n luoc An Dp Duong - Thai Bmh Duong ta do va rpng m d " cua My se tiep tuc lam cho cupc chgy dua vii trang frong khu vyc cd xu hucmg gia tang, dien bien phiic tap hon.
Tdm lai, trong bdi canh dia - chinh tri da dgng va cd nhilu xao frdn, chien luge FOIP la con dudng ma My hudng d i n thuc day hpp tac quan fri khu vyc nhung se gap khdng it frd ngai, khd khan. Trilt ly "ba chan kilng" cua My dupe xay dung de sin sang hanh ddng, friln khai cac quan he vdi cac ddi tac frong khu vuc va thiic d i y sy kit ndi lien vimg. Ba
"chan kilng" nay nhim dap iing nhimg "lpi ich cdt loi" cua My ttong kliu vyc. Thdng qua chiln lupc FOIP, My muon truyin ba, ap dat cac gia tri theo tieu chuan My v l ty do, dan chu, nhan quyln, dan tdc, tdn giao trong khu vuc. Do vgy, khi tham gia hgp tac khu vyc cin cd chiln luge phu hgp d l tan dung cac CO hdi va bao dam lpi ich quoc gia - dan tdc, khdng bi roi vao vdrig xoay, tranh dua lgi ich giiia cac cudng qudc. •
106 S6 938 (thang 3 nam 2020)
