Taichihh|
XDANH NGHIEP
$ Hau khung hoang: Thd'i c c va thach thu'c vd'i DN Viet Nam
$ Nhu'ng tac dong tich c y c va mpt so han chg cua cac giai phap kich cau do! ycr\ DN Viet Nam
^ DN Da Nlng: Hu-Q-ng \a\ nho" hd trp* lai suat
Doanh nghiep Viet N a m : Chudn bi hanh trang cho hgu khung hodng
I
TS. NGUYEN BA MINH Hoc vien Tai chinh
Khung hodng kinh tedd tdc dong tieu cue den nen kinh te- xd hoi CIM moi quoc gia noi chung vd cdc DN noi rieng. Ldm sao nhanh chdng lay lqi duoc dd tdng truong, phdt trien ngay sau khi cuoc khiing hodng qua di dang Id van de ddt ra doi v&i cdc DN Viet Nam. Dd co nhieu gidi phdp vd khuye'n cdo chung dua ra cho cdc DN Viet Nam nhung hdnh dong hieu qud nhd't vdn la su van dong tu thdn cua cdc DN, ke't hop v&i su ho tro tit phia Chinh phii...
D N doi m a t v d i v d n d e chung
Chua cd da'u higu rd net de khang dinh cudc khung hoang kinh te dang d giai doan cud'i va se nhanh chdng qua di, nhung cd the nhin thay rd rang nhimg tac ddng xau ma khung h o i n g da de lai cho nen kinh te va cdng ddng DN Viet Nam. Mac dii, nen kinh te nudc ta van dugc xep vao mdt trong sd it cac ngn kinh tg' trgn thg' gidi dat muc tang trudng duong vdi sd lugng DN pha san t h l p (chua cd thd'ng kg d l y du, rinh trgn thi trucmg chiing khoan (TTCK) Viet Nam, chua dg'n 10% DN lam an thua id) nhung dieu dd chua the' ndi r i n g DN Vigt N a m van "khde manh Hong khiing hoang". C l n luu y r i n g , dii khdng bi cudn vao "tam xoay" nhimg Viet Nam cung chiu anh hucmg lc>n cua suy thoai kinh te toan cau.
Nhimg anh hudng xau dd da thg' hien cu the d kim ngach x u l t khau giam sut manh so vdi nhung nam trudc, cac DN xuat k h i u lao dao do nhu clu thi
trucmg that chat... Tuy nhien, nhin tdng the, miic dp hdi nhap, md cira ciia chiing ta chua sau, do dd tac ddng ciia khiing h o i n g Cling dg'n m u d n hon va ta't nhien la viec thoat ra khdi khung hoang ciing cd "do Hg" so vcM cac nen kinh te' the gidi.
Mdt sd td chuc, dinh che' tai chinh ldn trgn the gidi cung da dua ra nhiing d y bao kha lac quan vg kinh te Vigt Nam, dd la van dat miic tang Hudng duong, la dia chi d i u tu "an toan hon ca"
va cd the se thoat khdi k h u n g hoang vao quy III/2009... Cd the ndi, tat ca nhiing d y bao dg'n thdi dig'm nay deu tucmg ddng va cd sd thyc tign dya trgn nhung gi Viet Nam da lam dugc Hong thdi gian qua. Nhiing dign bien cua tinh hinh kinh te - xa hdi 7 thang d i u nam 2009 cho chung ta hy vgng vao sy phuc hdi kinh te serin hon. Trong 7 thang dau nam 2009, kinh te v l n Hg'p tyc duy tri tang trudng duong va dan tang qua cac thang, quy. Ddng vd'n FDI vao thi trudng Vigt N a m tang trd lai;
san lugng cdng nghigp, tdng
18
muc ban le hang hda va doanh thu dich vu tang cao so vdi ciing ky nam 2008; TTCK, bat ddng san dang tan bang; viec nhap sigu trd lai la mdt tin hieu td't cho thay san xuat dang cln nhieu nguyen lieu hon... Day cd the' la CO sd quan trgng de danh gia kha nang DN Viet Nam sdm lly lai dugc da tang trucmg.
Thyc tg' cho tha'y tac ddng cua khung hoang kinh te the gidi ddi vdi cdng ddng DN la rat ldn, the hien qua viec gilm sut manh ve x u l t khau, c l t giam viec lam, thu hep san xuat, nhieu DN, dac bigt la cac doanh nghiep nhd vira vira ( D N N W ) da hoat ddng e l m chimg hoac khdng hoat ddng. Chua cd so lieu chinh xac ve so DN bi giai thg' do tac ddng cua khimg hoang kinh te, Hiy nhien so DN thanh lap mdi vln Hep tuc tang. Theo bao cao cua Chinh phu trudc Qud'c hdi, trong 7 thang d i u nam 2009, da cd hon 48.000 DN mdi dugc cap phep dang ky kinh doanh, tang 19,9%
so vdl cung ky. Ke't qua khao sat cua Phdng Thuong mai va Cdng nghigp Viet N a m (VCCI) cung
Tai Chinh THANG 8/2009
cho thiy, cd khoang 91% sd DN v l n dn dinh san xuat, trgn 51% DN ldn v l n Hep HJC d i u tu m d rdng quy md, 56%
DN cd nhu c l u m d rdng thi trudng.
N h u vay, danh gia tdng the, cac nhdm gill phap ngan chan suy giam kinh te cua Chinh phu da phat huy tac dyng tich cyc, cac DN dugc hudng lgi rat nhieu Hr cac ho irg cua Chinh phii, dang timg budc vugt qua khd khan.
Tuy nhign, van de cln dat ra hien nay la cdng ddng DN phai xac dinh dugc nhiing nguy co, thach thiic mdi se xult hien trong thdi gian tdi, nha't la khi nen kinh te thg' gidi vucrt qua khung hoing, kinl-i te trong nudc thoat khdi suy giam va tang Hudng trd lai.
Cu the nhu: Khi ktnh te thg' gicri phuc hdi, cac nen kinh te ldn se thyc hien tai CO ca'u, ddng vdn dau tu se cd sy chuyen dich. DN cln cd sy nghign ciiu ky ve thi trudng, nganh hang de tranh thu cac CO hdi cua qua trinh tai co cau kinh te qud'c te' mang lai, n h i t la dinh hudng ve thu hut cac ddng d i u tu nudc ngoai; Trai qua khung hoang, cac DN can nhan bie't dugc nhiing yg'u kem ngi tai ciia minh, tig'n hanh cac bien phap cai each ve cdng nghg, q u i n ly, tai chinh, nhan lyc... va dinh ra chig'n lugc phat trien mcri. Mat khac, cac DN phai hieu rd can nguyen ciia cudc khung hoang kinh te - tai chinh toan clu khcri ngudn hi nudc My xua't phat tir sy dd vd cua hg thd'ng Hn dung va thi trudng bat ddng san. Tu dd nhin lai tinh hinh Hong nudc de thay, trong nhiing nam qua, nudc ta cung cd nhieu con "sdt" chiing khoan, bat ddng san d i n den viec cac DN Icin dua nhau d i u tu vao cac linh vuc nay. Hau q u i khi TTCK giam diem manh me, thi trudng bat ddng s i n bi "ddng bang", khdng it DN da phli lao dao khi lun qua sau vao linh vyc trgn. Tir thyc tg' tren, cac DN can cd nhiing bai hgc cho dinh hudng d i u tu trong thdi gian tdi.
Ngoai ra, do khung hoang kinh te, hang hda du thira ngn h l u he't cac nudc trgn the gicri deu cd cac chinh sach bao hd nen san xuat trong nudc dan den hang xuat khau sg gap nhieu khd khan Hong viec chiem linh cac thi trucmg nudc ngoai, ngay ca d cac thi trudng truyen thd'ng. Hign nay, thi trudng trong nudc dang bi hang gia re cua Trung Qud'c chiem linh, cac DN Vigt Nam \'ln cdn qua chii trgng vao san xult hang xua't khau nen dang dimg trudc nguy cobi thua ngay tren san nha. Vi \'ay, \'iec chiem linh thi
trudng ndi dia vdi hon 80 trigu dan ciing la mdt van dg can dugc quan tam thich dang. Ngoai nhiing nd luc ndi tai, cac DN cln tan dung td'i da sy hau t h u l n , hd trg cua Chinh phu va cac hiep hdi DN de nhanh chdng phat trig'n san xuat - kinh doanh.
Gidi phdp ndo cho hdu khung hodng?
Gili phap nao de' ngay sau khi khimg hoang qua di DN nhanh chdng n l m bat dugc nhiing cahdi phat Hien la van dg dat ra khdng chi dd'i vdi mdi DN ma cdn la van de chung cua d i t nudc. Tai thdi diem nay, khi cugc khung hoang kinh tg' toan clu van cdn nhieu dign bien phiic tap, nhiing he luy xau cua nd dd'i vdi tat ca cac nganh, linh vyc chua dimg lai thi chua the k h i n g dinh dugc diem ket thiic khung h o i n g trgn quy md toan c l u ndi chung va d Viet Nam ndi rigng. Ke ca trong Hucmg hgp khiing hoang da den day, thi viec khdi phuc lai "phong do" tang trudng cua thdi ky trudc ciing cln mat 2-3 nam. Tuy nhign, dieu dd ciing khdng cd nghia la DN cii thu ddng ngdi chd cho khimg hoang qua di roi mdi c h u i n bi cho minh hanh trang budc vao giai doan phat trien mdi. Cac DN cln phai chu ddng ddn nhan nhiing Hn hieu tich cyc tir kinh te the gicri, dac biet vdi nhiing tin hieu lac quan cua nen kinh te Vigt Nam trong 7 thang d i u nam 2009 thi vigc DN phai cd sy chuan bi cho giai doan hau khimg hoang In cln thiet de nam b i t cac CO hdi cua giai doan kinh te phuc hdi, thiic d l y tang trucmg. Mdt so giai phap co ban dugc dua ra dudi day cd the r l t cln cho cac DN tham khao de tao cho minh mdt hanli trang vung chae ngay sau khi budc vao budc ra khdi khung hoang:
- Tai clu true la vigc cln lam ngay de phat trien sau suy thoai vi nhiing khd khan ma DN gap phai ngoai nhiing nguygn nhan khach quan cdn xult phat tir sy ye'u kem Hong co cau td chuc, trong digu hanh DN va quan hg vdi khach hang. Vi vay, de nang cao nang lyc canh tranh va hieu qua hoat ddng, cac DN cln Hep tuc day manh bien phap tai clu true lai d ca hai cap do: tai clu true g i n lien vcri thay ddi co clu chii sd hiiu va tai clu Hue khdng g i n lien vcri thay ddi c o c l u chu sd hiiu. Tai clu Hue g i n lien vdi thay ddi co clu chu sd hiiu thdng thudng ducri cac hinh thiic: mua, ban.
sap nhap DN...day la xu hucing dang dign ra nhigu trgn the gicM nham hinh thanh cac DN mdi dii manh ddng thdi v l n duy Hi dugc cac mat rich cyc, cac ddng san pham thuong hieu cua DN cii. Tai clu Hue khdng gan lien vdi thay ddi co clu chii sd hiiu bao gdm eac hoat ddng cai td ndi bd ciia DN nham nang cao hieu qua hoat ddng cua mdt sd bd phan cho phii hcrp vdi chien lugc phat Hien chung ciia DN nhu: xay dimg hoac digu chinh chig'n lugc kinh doanh; phat Hien nhiing ky nang mdi, tao sy tim tdi va ddi mdi trong ndi bd DN; cam ke't vdi khach hang, cdng ddng ve chit lugng san pham, dich vu va xay dung van hoa cua DN; xac lap lai cac don vi chuvgn mdn cung nhigm vy, chiic nang ciia timg don vi, ca nhan nham giup DN hoat ddng hieu qua hon.
- Tan dung co hdi khung hoang de ddi mdi cdng nghg va nang cao chit lugng ngudn nhan lyc. Trong giai doan khimg hoang, gia may mdc, thig't bi, cdng nghe cua the gidi trd ngn re hon r l t nhieu. Ngay ca Hong khu vuc, nhigu cdng nghe trudc day DN Viet Nam khd cd digu kien de d i u tu, chuyen giao thi den thdi diem hign nay da re hem mdt p h i n ba hoac mdt nua. DN cln tan dung co hdi nay, sii dyng ngudn lyc hign cd, tan dung gdi kich clu cua Chinh phii, vay bao lanh tir cac ngan hang de dau tu ddi mdi cdng nghg nham ddn d i u kinh te hdi phuc. DN ciing cln tan dung co hdi cua khiing h o i n g dg' thu hiit ngudn nhan luc cd Hinh do cao tir nudc ngoai, nhat la Viet kieu de phuc vu cho qua trinh tai ca'u true. Bgn canh dd, mdt van de khdng mcM nhung can dugc cac DN quan tam la chinh sach dao tao, phat Hien ngudn nhan lyc, giii va thu hiit lao ddng "chit xam", dac biet la lao ddng quan ly, lao ddng ky thuat. Tinh trang khd tuyen dung lao ddng, dac bigt la lao ddng cd trinh do, ky thuat cao sau khung h o i n g la van de khd khan ma cac DN se phai ddi mat.
- Tig'p tuc thuc day hoat ddng xult khau cac mat hang cd kim ngach 1cm, cd kha nang tang trucmg cao tai cac thi Hucmg truyen thd'ng gin lien vcii viec nghign ciiu md rdng, da dang hda thi Hucmg xuat khau. Hang hda ciia cac DN da xult khau den hon 200 nuci-c Hgn thg gicM nhimg trgn 80'/'" gia tri hang hda tap trung tai My, EU, Trung Qudc, Nhat Ban... ngn trucie mat van cln chu trgng va duy tri kim ngach
Tai chinh THANG 8/2009
TAI CHINH DOANH NGHIEP x u l t khau dd'i vdi cac thi Hudng nay nhung dg' tranh sy phu thudc ve lau dai, cac DN cln chii ddng nghien cuu, m g rdng den cac thi trudng mcri nhu:
chau A, chau Phi, Nam My... Mat khac, mdt sd mat hang xua't khau Viet N a m nhu: nhya, may mac, giay dep...cdn qua phu thudc vao nguygn lieu nhap khau (60% - 70%) cung ddi hdi cac DN phai quan tam phat trig'n cac vimg nguygn Iigu trong nudc. Hien nay xult khau chiem ty trgng cao trong ngn kinh te nucx: ta vi vay day la mdt van de cln p h l i dugc cac DN danh sy quan tam ldn. De' cd the tranh thu dugc nhiing co hdi mdi m d ra trong thdi "hau khiing hoang" thi cln phai theo ddi sat sao va cd ging dy bao xem nudc nao, linh vyc nao hdi phuc trudc de chu ddng Hep can chig'm linh thi trudng. Khimg hoang kinh te' anh hudng ldn den xult khau, tuy nhign do thu nhap eua dan cu cac nudc nhap k h i u giam sut ngn viec x u l t khau hang hda gia re, hang ndng, thiiy san, thyc pham... cd co hdi tang trudng.
Day la the manh eua cac DN Vigt Nam. DN xult khau cung c l n chu trgng xay dyng thucmg higu cho cac mat hang cd lgi thg' so vcM cac nudc khac de bao dam duc)c thi phan vung chle cho nhdm hang dd tai cac thi Hudng.
- Cac DN cln tang cudng lign ket dg' chig'm linh thi trucmg ndi dia.
Trong thcri gian vira qua, da cd nhieu chuygn gia kinh te' Ign rieng c i n h bao ve vigc hang hda nudc ngoai, dac bigt la hang Trung Qud'c gia re tran ngap thi trudng Viet Nam. Cung vdi viec duy tri, md rdng va da dang hda thi trudng xult khau thi viec chu trgng phat trig'n thi trudng trong nudc c l n ducx: coi nhu mdt hucmg co ban va lau dai. Khi de cap dg'n thi trudng trong nudc thi cln chu trgng ca thi trudng rigu thu va sii dung hang hoa, dich vy d i u vao cho san xuat trong nudc vdi gia thanh ha hon so vcri hang hda nhap khau. Ddi vcM thi trucmg trong nudc, can chu trgng den thi trudng ndng thdn, ncri chig'm dg'n 2 / 3 dan sd nudc ta. Trong thdi gian vira qua, vigc lien kg't cac DN de m d nhiing chien dich tiep thi hang hda ve ndng thdn, dua san pham den tan tay ngudi rieu dung la each lam dimg hudng cua cac DN n h l m tig'p can thi trudng tiem nang nay. Khi Viet Nam Hep tuc thyc hign cac cam ke't md ciia thi trudng trong khudn khd WTO thi vigc lign kg't cac
DN trong chiem linh thi Hudng ndi dia cdn cd y nghia quan trgng trong nang cao nang luc canh tranh cua cac DN Viet Nam vdi cac DN va cac nha d i u tu nudc ngoai.
- Ngoai nhiing nd lyc ndi tai cua cac DN thi cac bien phap hd trg cua Chinh phu la sy hau thuan quan trong dg' cac DN phat trien trgng giai dgan hau khung hoang. Chinh phu cln sdm Hig'n khai p h u o n g an ca clu lai nen kinh tg', dac biet la nhiing nganli, Iinh vyc quan trgng n h u tai chinh, ngan hang, x u l t khau, dich vy... tap trung thao gdcac "mit thit" phat Hig'n ve d i u
ldi cdu true Id viec DN can Idm ngay de phdt trien sau suy thodi vi nhung kho khan md DN gap phdi ngodi nhOng nguyen nhdn khdch quan cdn xudt phdt tu" si; yeu kem trong co cdu td chik, trong dicu hdnh DN vd quan he voi
khdch hang.
tu, nang cap co sd ha ting, phat trie'n ngudn nhan lyc, cai each hanh chinh...
de ddn d i u cac ddng d i u tu mcri trong giai doan phuc hdi kinh teva hd t r g s y phat trien cua cdng ddng DN. Dam bao cac gdi kich clu thyc hien d u n g muc dich, thu tuc cho vay nhanh, cd sy kig'm tra, kig'm soat thudng xuyen lign tuc cac d y an cho vay; day manh giai ngan vdn xay d y n g co ban, vd'n ODA.
- Cac CO quan quan ly nha nudc, cac higp hdi DN cd vai trd het sue quan trgng ddi vdi cac DN trong thyc hien ke hoach san x u l t kinh doanh.
Hep can thi Hudng va m d rdng d i u tu.
Do dd, cac ca quan nay c l n chu ddng nghign cuu, de ra cac chucmg trinh hanh ddng thie't thyc, higu qua de hd trg DN; thugng xuygn bam sat ca sd, hdi vign dg' n l m b i t nhiing nhung khd khan, bat cap do chu truong chinh sach chua phii hgp hoac do thyc Hgn
khach quan cua hoat ddng san xuat, kinh doanh dg' kip thdi tham muu, tu van cho Chinh p h u cac bien phap hd trg mdi. Ddng thdi, day manh cac hoat d d n g xuc tien thuong mai d ca thi trudng trong nudc va nudc ngoai dac bigt la thi trudng khu vyc ndng thdn nudc ta va cac thi trudng nudc ngoai mdi, giau Hem nang. Mat khac, phd bie'n, tuyen truyen va dao tao kien thiic cho DN ve phap luat thuang mai qud'c te, sd h u u tri tue, cac kinh nghiem Hi cac vu kien chd'ng ban pha gia d cac nudc; Hd trg cho DN Hong qua trinh tai cau Hue, nhat la cung cap thdng tin ve cac xu hudng phat trig'n cua the gidi, nang cao nang lyc quan tri ndi bd, phat trie'n ngudn nhan lyc, ddi mdi cdng nghe, xay d y n g va phat trig'n thucmg higu cua DN...
- Vigt N a m c l n nhanh chdng bd sung, sua ddi he thd'ng luat le, nha't la linh vyc kinh tg' tir nhiing thay ddi ca'u true, phucmg phap quan ly kinh tg' cua thg' gidi sau k h u n g hoang. Vdi thay ddi cu the ve kinh te' - xa hdi, ve co cau, thg' che va md hinh quan ly cimg vcri ke hoach xay dyng hoan chinh he thdng ha t i n g , chien lugc dao tao ngudn nhan luc chung cua qud'c gia trong kg hoach 2020, theo Nghi quye't dai hdi Dang sap tc3i, la nhung yeu to true tig'p giup cho DN phat trig'n. Trudc het, phai tao digu kign thuan lgi cho cac DNNVV vuon Ign phat trien nhanh, bgn vung sau khung h o i n g .
Cd the ndi, tac ddng cua khimg h o i n g la dip de mdi DN, mdi linh vuc, nganh h a n g nhin lai minh mdt each can kg, rut ra nhiing mat manh, mat yg'u, nhiing uu die'm va yeu kem de tu phat huy, ty sua chiia. Khai thac mdt each ed hieu qua tat ca nhirng chinh sach tir gdi kich clu de tang co sd vat chat ky thuat, cdng nghe Hgn Hen;
nang cao trinh dg quan ly, chat lugng h a n g hda, giam gia thanh, xay dyng thugng hieu q u i n g ba hang hda de k h i n g dinh vi the cua minh trgn thi
trudng. $
Tdi lieu tham khdo:
1. Bao cao thaang ky ciia Chinh phu thang 6/2009.
2. Tang ca&ng nang lac canh tranh cua cac DNVVN (NXB Dai hoc Kinh te Qudc dan) 3. Khung hoing tai chinh My: He qui va giii
phap doi v&i Viet Nam (Bui Kien Thanh) Tai chinh T H A N G 8/2009
